nep-cis New Economics Papers
on Confederation of Independent States
Issue of 2023‒11‒13
twenty-one papers chosen by
Alexander Harin, Modern University for the Humanities

  1. CURRENT STATE OF FACILITIES AND EQUIPMENT WITHIN VOCATIONAL EDUCATION AND TECHNICAL SYSTEM GIVEN INTENSIFYING IMPORT SUBSTITUTION PROCESSES IN RUSSIA (CLUSTER ANALYSIS) By Blinov, Vladimir (Блинов, Владимир); Sergeev, Igor (Сергеев, Игорь); Esenina, Ekaterina (Есенина, Екатерина); Satdykov, Airat (Сатдыков, Айрат); Dulaeva, Zalina (Дулаева, Залина)
  2. Global energy crisis: impact on the global economy By Ozili, Peterson K
  3. Monthly Report No. 4/2023 By Vasily Astrov; Olga Pindyuk; Maryna Tverdostup; Sergey Utkin
  4. Should I stay or should I go? Stock market reactions to companies' decisions in the wake of the Russia-Ukraine conflict By Kiesel, Florian; Kolaric, Sascha
  5. Is the Price Cap for Gas Useful? Evidence from European Countries By Ravazzolo, Francesco; Rossini, Luca
  6. Turkey in the Black Sea region: Ankara's reactions to the war in Ukraine against the background of regional dynamics and global confrontation By Isachenko, Daria
  7. Trends and Inequality in Lifetime Earnings in France By Berthou Antoine
  8. Die Türkei im Schwarzmeerraum: Reaktionen Ankaras auf den Krieg in der Ukraine vor dem Hintergrund regionaler Dynamiken und globaler Konfrontation By Isachenko, Daria
  9. The Impact of the Firstborn Gender on Family Formation and Dissolution: Evidence from Russia By Sergii Maksymovych
  10. Reconstructing and reforming Ukraine By Berglöf, Erik; Rashkovan, Vladyslav
  11. Macroeconomic Shocks and Economic Performance in Malaysia: A sectoral analysis By Willem THORBECKE
  12. Optimal Sub-Saharan and European trade policy response to the use of the food weapon by Russia: do regional taste variations count? By Yacine Ouahioune
  13. The impact of crises on the sustainable development of regions: foreign empirical evidence By Barinova, Vera (Баринова, Вера); Demidova, Ksenia (Демидова, Ксения); Levakov, Pavel (Леваков, Павел); Petrosyan, Filipp (Петросян, Филипп)
  14. Mr Putin and the chronicle of a normalisation foretold By Chadha, Jagjit S.
  15. Are sanctions for losers? A network study of trade sanctions By Fabio Ashtar Telarico
  16. DIGITAL «MATURITY ASSESSMENT»: APPROACHES, METHODOLOGIES, TOOLS By Tarasova, Natalia (Тарасова Наталия); Pastukhova, Irina (Пастухова, Ирина); Kazakov, Aleksey (Казаков, Алексей)
  17. Where have all Tech Layoffs gone? A Model of Two Worker Types with Outsourcing By Marjit, Sugata; Das, Gouranga G.
  19. Polen vor der Wahl - Wirtschaftsmodell im Wandel: Analyse des wirtschaftlichen Aufstiegs und der künftigen Herausforderungen By Obst, Thomas; Sultan, Samina
  20. Commentary on the Strategic Interventions for Agriculture, Climate Change, and Food Security Proposed by the National Science and Technology Commission at the 9th Biennial Conference on Science and Technology By R.M.R, Ahammed; Perera, Rasitha Thilini Suranjana; K.G.D, Piyumali; Kaluarachchi, K.D. K. G; D, Silva S. K. B.; Munagamage, Thilini; P, Piyankarage C. S.; Shahmy, Seyed; Karunaratne, Veranja
  21. Macroeconomic Forecasting with the Use of News Data By Mikhaylov, Dmitry

  1. By: Blinov, Vladimir (Блинов, Владимир) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Sergeev, Igor (Сергеев, Игорь) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Esenina, Ekaterina (Есенина, Екатерина) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Satdykov, Airat (Сатдыков, Айрат) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Dulaeva, Zalina (Дулаева, Залина) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration)
    Abstract: Sanctions and import substitution processes in Russian enterprises have changed not only the catalogue of equipment used but, in many cases, even technological processes. This is a serious challenge for the vocational education and training system (VET), that has to adapt to new economic environment. The purpose of the preprint is to find out to what extant Russian VET organizations are prepared to solve the problem of updating technologies and replacing previously imported equipment based on the data obtained during an empirical study. The study is based on the methodology of acquisition of empirical data using an electronic form of a questionnaire that included 22 closed questions. Primary results obtained were processed applying cluster analysis, generalization, grouping and ranking approaches. As a result: a low degree of readiness of Russian VET organizations to take part in solving problems of import substitution and to participate in achieving technological sovereignty goals set by Government was revealed. The contribution of employers to the process of modernizing facilities and equipment in VET organizations turned out to be much less than it was expected. Different management strategies used by an educational organization has a little effect on the quality of its infrastructure. Availability of financial sources in the regions of Russian Federation and capability of organizations to obtain them play the leading role. The nature and level of influence of different factors on the effectiveness of the processes of modernizing infrastructure and import substitution in VET organizations are defined. Differences in management strategies used by VET organizations to solve the problems of facilities and equipment (diversification of funding sources, cooperation with employers, import substitution planning, personnel training) are specified. A set of factors and management strategies to improve the efficiency of facilities and equipment modernization and import substitution processes have been defined. The pending problem areas of infrastructure management in VET organizations were identified.
    Keywords: vocational education and training, facilities and equipment, public-private partnership, import substitution, technological sovereignty.
    Date: 2023–06–23
  2. By: Ozili, Peterson K
    Abstract: This paper explores the 2021-2022 global energy crisis. The 2021-2022 energy crisis was caused by many factors including the global campaign to reduce carbon emission, the shortage in fossil fuel reserves due to divestment from fossil fuels, the halt in oil production due to the COVID-19 pandemic and the Ukraine and Russia conflict. The empirical results show that gasoline prices rose in Asia, Europe, Africa, the Middle East and the Americas. The rise in gasoline prices occurred during the period when COVID-era restrictions were lifted in 2021 and also during the Russia-Ukraine conflict in early 2022. The correlation results show that gasoline prices in Middle East, Europe, Asia and the Americas were significantly correlated but not in Africa. The findings have implications.
    Keywords: COVID-19 pandemic, gasoline, energy crisis, Asia, Europe, Africa, Middle East
    JEL: Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49
    Date: 2023
  3. By: Vasily Astrov (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Olga Pindyuk (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Maryna Tverdostup (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Sergey Utkin
    Abstract: Chart of the Month Ukrainian refugees in the Austrian labour market by Maryna Tverdostup Opinion Corner Russia’s war in Ukraine Stalemate but no ceasefire by Sergey Utkin A ‘war of attrition’ is among the most common descriptions used for the ongoing military stand-off in Ukraine. Both sides are sticking to their territorial ambitions, which are inherently irreconcilable. The widespread analytical conclusions about the future are based on extrapolation from the current situation. And while history rarely develops in a linear way for long, there is indeed good reason to believe that a potential defining moment in the war will come no earlier than next year, which means more casualties and destruction ahead. Trade relations of Eastern Europe with the EU and other global players by Vasily Astrov For most East European countries, the EU is far and away their most important trading partner – although in some post-Soviet countries the EU has been losing out to Russia. The EU is also far more ambitious than other global players with respect to trade integration arrangements with the region, and the exports of East European countries to the EU are generally more advanced than are their exports to Russia. However, the differences in trade complementarity on the export and on the import side mean that the benefits of trade integration tend to be asymmetric the EU emerges as the main beneficiary, while the competitiveness of East European economies often does not improve fundamentally. Financial linkages of Eastern Europe with the EU and other global players by Olga Pindyuk The EU remains the main source of capital for Eastern Europe, in terms of both FDI and banking sector domination. Besides, the bloc is an important source of budgetary support for the region and has provided unprecedented assistance to Ukraine since the start of the war. However, China’s influence in the region has also been growing, especially in the Western Balkans and Turkey, largely within the framework of the Belt and Road Initiative. Monthly and quarterly statistics for Central, East and Southeast Europe
    Keywords: refugees, labour market, Russia’s war in Ukraine, foreign policy, prospects for ceasefire, trade importance, commodity structure of trade, free trade agreements, trade complementarity, foreign direct investment, Belt and Road Initiative, banking sector, budget support
    Date: 2023–04
  4. By: Kiesel, Florian; Kolaric, Sascha
    Date: 2023–12
  5. By: Ravazzolo, Francesco; Rossini, Luca
    Abstract: Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, many countries have pledged to end or restrict their oil and gas imports to curtail Moscow’s revenues and hinder its war effort. Thus, the European ministers agreed to trigger a cap on the gas price. To detect the importance of the price cap for gas, we provide a mixture representation for the gas price to detect the presence of outliers made by a truncated normal distribution and a uniform one. We focus our analysis on Germany and Italy, which are major Russian gas importers by exploiting the response of the different commodities to a gas shock through a Bayesian vector autoregressive (VAR) model. As a result, including a lower gas price cap smooths the impact of a gas shock on electricity prices, while not considering a price cap will increase exponentially this impact.
    Keywords: Public Economics, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy
    Date: 2023–10–30
  6. By: Isachenko, Daria
    Abstract: Turkey's policy in the Black Sea region is the result of not only a complex relationship with Russia but also of a difficult relationship with the West. In particular, US policy in the Middle East has a major impact on how Ankara positions itself in the Black Sea region. An important feature of the Black Sea region has been and continues to be the shared Turkish and Russian vision of a regional order that excludes external actors. This can be seen in the way Turkey interpreted the Montreux Convention after the outbreak of war in Ukraine and in the way the Black Sea Grain Initiative came about. Under the Montreux Convention, Ankara has a decisive role in the limitation of extra-regional fleets in the Black Sea. This is partly due to Turkish control of the straits. On the other hand, there are also treaty-based tonnage restrictions for warships of non-littoral states that are allowed to stay in the Black Sea temporarily. Ankara's manoeuvres are contributing significantly to the West's uncer­tainty about Turkey's foreign policy orientation. However, Ankara is not questioning its security anchorage in NATO. As well as securing its leadership role in the Black Sea region, Ankara is also keen to assert its economic interests.
    Keywords: War in Ukraine, Turkey, Black Sea Region, Turkey's relationship with Russia, Turkey's relationship with the West, regional order, Montreux Convention, Black Sea Grain Initiative, NATO
    Date: 2023
  7. By: Berthou Antoine
    Abstract: This paper shows that international sanctions can undermine the role of the US dollar in trade invoicing. The analysis is based on the episode of international sanctions targeting Russia after the invasion of regions of Ukraine in 2014. While European sanctions increased trade costs for firms located in the EU and conducting transactions with Russia, sanctions imposed by the United States affected firms located in third countries due to the extra-territoriality of the US law. This created an incentive to diversify away from the US dollar to avoid these sanctions when exporting to target countries such as Russia. The empirical exercise relies on detailed customs data for France with information on the currency of invoicing by transaction. Following the start of the Western sanctions on Russia in 2014, the propensity of French exporters to invoice their contracts in US dollars decreased. Estimation results highlight the role played by (i) strategic complementarities between firms, (ii) the diversification of Russian foreign reserves, (iii) US secondary sanctions targeting exports of dual-use goods, and (iv) threats of US secondary sanctions faced by exporters’ banks.
    Keywords: Dollar dominance, Currency Invoicing, International Sanctions
    JEL: F10 F14 F44
    Date: 2023
  8. By: Isachenko, Daria
    Abstract: Die Politik der Türkei im Schwarzmeerraum ist nicht nur das Ergebnis eines komplexen Verhältnisses zu Russland, sondern auch eines schwierigen Verhältnisses zum Westen. Insbesondere die Politik der Vereinigten Staaten im Nahen Osten hat großen Einfluss darauf, wie sich Ankara in der Schwarzmeerregion positioniert. Ein wichtiges Merkmal der Schwarzmeerregion war und ist die gemeinsame Vorstellung der Türkei und Russlands von einer regionalen Ordnung, die externe Akteure ausschließt. Dies zeigt sich in der Art und Weise, wie die Türkei nach dem Ausbruch des Krieges in der Ukraine den Vertrag von Montreux interpretiert hat und wie die Schwarzmeer-Getreide-Initiative zustande kam. Der Vertrag von Montreux weist Ankara eine entscheidende Rolle bei der Begrenzung außerregionaler Flotten im Schwarzen Meer zu. Dies ergibt sich zum einen aus der türkischen Kontrolle der Meerengen. Zum anderen bestehen vertraglich festgelegte Tonnagegrenzen für Kriegsschiffe von Nichtanrainerstaaten, die sich vorübergehend im Schwarzen Meer aufhalten dürfen. Das Lavieren Ankaras trägt wesentlich dazu bei, dass der Westen über die außenpolitische Orientierung der Türkei verunsichert ist. Seine sicherheitspolitische Verankerung in der Nato stellt Ankara jedoch nicht in Frage. Neben der Sicherung seiner Führungsrolle in der Schwarzmeerregion geht es Ankara auch darum, seine wirtschaftlichen Interessen durchzusetzen.
    Date: 2023
  9. By: Sergii Maksymovych
    Abstract: In this paper, I obtain three findings regarding the impact of the firstborn child’s gender on family stability. First, couples who have a first-born daughter aged 6-18 are more likely to divorce than those who have a son of that age. Second, single mothers with first-born daughters are less likely to marry. Third, couples who have a first-born daughter aged 0-5 are less likely to divorce than those who have a son of that age. The first two findings are in accord with findings in the literature. The third finding is specific to the Russian context. My analysis is based on the Russia Longitudinal Monitoring Survey (RLMS-HSE) data for the 1994-2018 period. I estimate complementary log-log (cloglog) regressions of divorce and marriage (for single mothers) on firstborn gender, age, and a set of household socio-demographic characteristics. My findings support the conclusion that the impact of children’s gender on family living arrangements depends on family socioeconomic conditions and thus has a different character and magnitude in different contexts.
    Keywords: marriage, divorce, children, gender, living arrangements
    JEL: J13 J15 J16
    Date: 2023–10
  10. By: Berglöf, Erik; Rashkovan, Vladyslav
    Abstract: Helping Ukraine to reconstruct and reform its economy is arguably the most important project for Europe this century. It will require extraordinary collaboration from within and outside of the country. We establish a set of principles that should guide these efforts, based on international and Ukraine’s own experience. This experience also suggests key building blocks of a reform and reconstruction architecture that can help ensure that these principles are successfully applied. We assess the current institutional arrangements in this light and suggest adjustments that will increase the likelihood of success. The core of the argument is that the unfathomable choices involved in reconstruction and reform, including the use of donor resources, must be made by the Ukrainian people and its elected representatives, and the outcome must be owned by them.
    Keywords: Ukraine; post-conflict reconstruction; reform architecture; aid effectiveness
    JEL: N0
    Date: 2023–09–08
  11. By: Willem THORBECKE
    Abstract: COVID-19, the Russia-Ukraine War, inflation, contractionary U.S. monetary policy, and other shocks have buffeted the world economy. To examine how these shocks impact Malaysia, this paper examines how they affect Malaysian sectoral stock returns. The results indicate that inflation, U.S. monetary policy, exchange rates, and other macroeconomic variables are exerting second order effects on Malaysian industries. The paper then compares the performance of sectoral stock returns during the three and a half years since the pandemic began with returns forecasted based on five macroeconomic variables. The results indicate that industrial metals and banks are performing well. Food producers, healthcare providers, medical equipment suppliers, tourist-related companies, and semiconductor firms are suffering. This paper considers several policy steps that could help firms in hard-hit sectors to recover and be resilient. These include encouraging exports of tropical fruits and halal foods and promoting medical tourism. In addition, attracting foreign direct investment (FDI) to facilitate learning and progression to sophisticated segments of the electronics value chain would increase firms’ robustness. Seeking inbound FDI is important now as multinational corporations attempt to diversify out of China and as countries seek to friendshore their semiconductor supply chains.
    Date: 2023–10
  12. By: Yacine Ouahioune
    Abstract: Short-term trade restrictions amidst world geopolitical crises have greatly contributed to recent global surges in staple prices. Non-cooperative trade policies such as exports bans in 2022 fed into debates about the relationship between food security and trade: although trade is essential to ensure sufficient supply in net-importing countries, it also makes them more vulnerable to external supply shocks. This essay thus examines the mechanisms at play in the diffusion of supply shocks through trade networks, in order to draw conclusions relevant to short-term trade policies protecting food security. It focuses on optimal responses of Sub-Saharan Africa and the European Union to policy shocks happening in Ukraine and Russia. Building on mainstream trade theory, it accounts for worldwide trade and consumption patterns to design ad hoc trade policies for short-term resilience. To do so, I design a three-regions, three-goods microfounded model of trade in which food preferences vary across regions. This model illustrates the point that net importing regions are affected by the demand from other parts of the world with similar preferences. In the face of a price shock, the model implies that trade restrictions in a large importing region may benefit consumers in other importing regions, through both price and substitution channels. I then test my results in a general equilibrium model and simulate a shock on wheat and grain exports from Russia and Ukraine in the Global Trade Analysis Project’s model (GTAP). In this setting, Sub Saharan countries are affected by the higher world price and by the demand of European consumers, which competes with demand from domestic African consumers. I show that, in this context, European import tariffs have the potential to improve welfare in Africa’s food importing countries.
    Keywords: cascading effects , Sub-Saharan Africa , Food security , trade policy , European Union , regional tastes
    Date: 2023
  13. By: Barinova, Vera (Баринова, Вера) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Demidova, Ksenia (Демидова, Ксения) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Levakov, Pavel (Леваков, Павел) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Petrosyan, Filipp (Петросян, Филипп) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration)
    Abstract: The current frequency of crises and the increasing risks to the sustainable development of regions around the world create a need for significant research on this issue. The relevance of the proposed work lies in the high degree of importance of the concept of sustainable development for Russia and the entire world community. The scientific novelty of the study lies in the presentation of the most detailed analysis of current foreign studies on the impact of crisis phenomena on the sustainable development of regions - at the same time, various crises are considered, including the global financial crisis of 2008, the COVID19 pandemic, as well as natural disasters, humanitarian disasters, etc. In addition, a wide range of aspects of sustainable development are presented, which are subject to the influence of crisis phenomena. The purpose of this literature review is to present a wide range of approaches to managing risks to the sustainable development of regions caused by crisis phenomena. At the same time, the tasks set are to study the very concept of a crisis, analyze the theoretical approaches of schools of regional development, study aspects of sustainable development, as well as identify the impact of crisis phenomena on the sustainable development of regions and present sustainable regional strategies to combat crisis phenomena. The main research method is literature analysis. Based on the results of the work, it was concluded that in foreign literature the impact of crises on regional sustainable development is considered from different perspectives. When analyzing one specific case, it is important to take into account the following variables: the scale of the crisis (local, global), the nature of the crisis (economic, political, environmental, social), the resilience of the region to the crisis, cultural and historical factors, social capital. Sustainable regional development is one of the processes that are affected by the crisis associated with the environmental, social, economic and even political component.
    Keywords: crisis, sustainable development, regional development, foreign experience, literature review
    JEL: J78 Q01 Q56 R11 R58
    Date: 2023–07–11
  14. By: Chadha, Jagjit S.
    Abstract: Major central banks have been caught in a low interest rate trap for over a decade. The temporary response to the financial crisis of 2008-9 has become something of a regime. The Federal Reserve, for example, attempted to ease quantitative easing in 2013 but this stalled following the “taper tantrum” and commenced a normalisation in the Federal Funds rate from 2015 but during Covid major central banks around the world rapidly returned policy rates to around zero. Low policy rates have been the response to tighter credit conditions, excessive global savings, low levels of investment and fiscal consolidation. But they have also played a role in propelling asset price growth and increasing levels of indebtedness. The accommodative stance in monetary policy, as well as the impetus from previous monetary and fiscal interventions seem like to have stoked inflation to a higher level that might otherwise have been the case following the shock of a war on the European continent. But may also have finally secured a normalisation in policy rates.
    Keywords: monetary policy; Ukraine war; normalisation; liquidity trap
    JEL: E43 E58 E61
    Date: 2023–09–08
  15. By: Fabio Ashtar Telarico
    Abstract: Studies built on dependency and world-system theory using network approaches have shown that international trade is structured into clusters of 'core' and 'peripheral' countries performing distinct functions. However, few have used these methods to investigate how sanctions affect the position of the countries involved in the capitalist world-economy. Yet, this topic has acquired pressing relevance due to the emergence of economic warfare as a key geopolitical weapon since the 1950s. And even more so in light of the preeminent role that sanctions have played in the US and their allies' response to the Russian-Ukrainian war. Applying several clustering techniques designed for complex and temporal networks, this paper shows that a shift in the pattern of commerce away from sanctioning countries and towards neutral or friendly ones. Additionally, there are suggestions that these shifts may lead to the creation of an alternative 'core' that interacts with the world-economy's periphery bypassing traditional 'core' countries such as EU member States and the US.
    Date: 2023–10
  16. By: Tarasova, Natalia (Тарасова Наталия) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Pastukhova, Irina (Пастухова, Ирина) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Kazakov, Aleksey (Казаков, Алексей) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration)
    Abstract: Relevance. The general trends and consequences of digital transformation have touched all levels of the education system, manifested in the creation of a digital educational ecosystem, significant changes in the theory and practice of teaching and education, the introduction of electronic and network didactic means and tools, the formation of a digital culture of an educational organization, etc. Digital transformation does not mean a set of IT programs or software, but, first of all, it is a transformation of the educational process, manifested in an innovative format of teaching, education and learning, forming a new thinking and culture of the subjects of educational relations, taking into account digital transformations in the economy and society. The solution of the actual task of assessing the "digital maturity" of organizations of various forms of ownership, spheres of production activity, including the level of higher education, will contribute to the development of a model for assessing the "digital maturity" for the general education system. Object of the study: digital maturity assessment. Subject: approaches, methodologies, tools for digital maturity assessment. Objective: to identify and describe approaches, techniques, tools for assessing digital maturity. Objectives: to analyze the essence and meaning understanding of the category "digital maturity"; assessment of "digital maturity", to analyze the existing foreign and domestic methods and tools for assessing the level of "digital maturity" of organizational systems. Methods: comparative analysis of the concept of "digital maturity"; bibliographic search; methods of systematization and generalization of data. Conclusions: there is no unity of scientific attribution of the concepts of "digital maturity"; assessment of "digital maturity"; the concept of "digital maturity" and its assessment systems in the Russian Federation are studied mainly only in the framework of higher education. In the case of general education, these problems are insufficiently represented in scientific research, as well as the number of empirical descriptions of practices of digital maturity assessment in general education schools is insignificant. In this regard, there is a need to analyze the approaches, methods and tools for comprehensive assessment of the digital maturity of organizational systems. The results of such work will serve as a source for designing profiles of digital maturity levels in the general education system.
    JEL: I21 I26 O30
    Date: 2023–07–10
  17. By: Marjit, Sugata; Das, Gouranga G.
    Abstract: The flourishing of IT-sector and IT-enabled services has led to emergence of different activities by leaps and bounds thanks to proliferation of Virtual plattorm-based transactions, and E-commerce. However, massive layoffs started in 2022, as all tech giants encountered revenue declines amidst supply chain issues, inflation, Ukraine war, leading to deflation and fears of recession squeezing consumer and business spending. This has happened across the globe. In the context of the countries supplying low- wage labor (skilled wage in Indian Silicon Valley at Bengaluru is lower than that in the Californian Silicon Valley), similar episodes unfolded but to a different extent. The evidence suggests that layoffs in developing economies like India is much less than that in the US with limited impact on Indian industry despite severe global downturn. Jobs and hiring will move out of the developed markets to these emerging markets with cost advantages owing to lower salaries, as with low demand, drive to cutdown costs will induce firms to outsource some operations outside while focusing on core functions provided the cost of outsourcing is not too high. In this paper, we build a model to show how contraction in demand for IT-enabled works will determine how much of works to be completed in the US (home) and the remainder to be sourced out to say, India (abroad). We identify the conditions under which switching from pure domestic production to outsourcing using hired foreign workers will happen. We show that in both cases of perfectly competitive homogeneous product as well as in case of differentiated goods oligopoly scenarios that the hiring ceases drastically in the home while the outsourced workers will not suffer to a large extent. Home bears the burden of adjustment due to the sheer cost disadvantages of the home.
    Keywords: Outsourcing, Layoffs, IT-enabled services, Wage inequality, Market Structure
    JEL: F11 F16 J63 O19
    Date: 2023
  18. By: Kazakova, Maria (Казакова, Мария) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration)
    Abstract: Economic science considers human capital as a fundamental factor that stimulates the accumulation of productive capital and, accordingly, has a positive effect on economic growth. Improving labor force quality can lead to an increase in the well-being of an individual due to an increase in his labor cost. An increase in public welfare will affect the economic growth of the state as a whole. The above conditions the relevance and timeliness of this work, aimed at illustration of human capital concept (subject of the study), as well as determination of human capital place in theoretical economic growth models and empirical mechanisms of its influence on growth. A review of theoretical works analyzing human capital concept and its relationship with economic growth rates aimed at achieving this goal. The study was conducted at the IPEI Center for the Study of Central Banking Problems as part of the RANEPA state task for 2022 using relevant academic literature and as the major source of information and methods such as descriptive, statistical, comparative analysis, as well as systematic approach. Analysis of human capital concept allows concluding that this indicator represents a set of innate and acquired through investment knowledge, skills and practical skills that determine labor productivity and future income of an employee. The mechanisms of human capital impact on economic growth include the relationship between growth and education level, the impact of human capital on technological progress, the relationship between health indicators and economic growth rates, the growth effect of public spending on education and health, and, finally, the effect of human capital in terms of poverty reduction. In the future, this review can serve as a starting point for an empirical study of investments in human capital in Russia within the framework of models with uncertainty and individual heterogeneous discounting.
    Keywords: human capital, economic growth, technological progress, macroeconomic models, education level, public health, government spending, poverty
    JEL: E24 I15 I25 J24 O33 O40 O47
    Date: 2022–06–02
  19. By: Obst, Thomas; Sultan, Samina
    Abstract: Am 15. Oktober 2023 wird in Polen eine neue Regierung gewählt. Das Ergebnis dieser Wahl und die weitere wirtschaftliche Entwicklung des Landes sind auch für Europa und besonders die unmittelbaren Nachbarländer wie Deutschland relevant. Denn Polen ist mittlerweile überregional eng verflochten, etwa über die Handelsbeziehungen. Das polnische Handelsvolumen ist zwischen 1990 und 2023 stark gestiegen. Deutschland ist der wichtigste Handelspartner des Landes mit einem Anteil von 27 Prozent am polnischen Handelsvolumen. Als dynamisch wachsende Volkswirtschaft ist Polen zudem zu einem wichtigen Industriestandort in der Mitte der Europäischen Union avanciert. Seit dem Fall des Eisernen Vorhangs im Jahr 1989 hat sich Polen umfassend gesellschaftlich und wirtschaftlich transformiert und einen rasanten wirtschaftlichen Aufstieg hinter sich. So hat sich die Pro-Kopf-Wirtschaftsleistung beinahe vervierfacht von 10.000 US-Dollar im Jahr 1991 auf rund 37.000 US-Dollar im Jahr 2022. Dies ist im europäischen Vergleich beispiellos. Das hohe Wirtschaftswachstum hat trotz signifikanter Budgetdefizite die staatliche Verschuldung in Polen moderat gehalten, mit dem Ergebnis, dass die Schuldenquote in Polen deutlich unter dem EU-Durchschnitt liegt. Zudem hat die Arbeitslosenquote einen Tiefststand erreicht. Allerdings steht das Land wie seine europäischen Nachbarn vor einem demografisch bedingtem Fachkräfteengpass. Dieser ist vor allem durch niedrige Geburtenraten, eine alternde Bevölkerung, aber auch durch nach wie vor hohe Emigration von gut ausgebildeten Arbeitskräften bedingt. Die Emigration hat gleichzeitig zum Sinken der hohen Arbeitslosigkeit in den 2000er Jahren beigetragen und zu signifikanten Rücküberweisungen aus dem Ausland nach Polen geführt. Der Anteil der Rücküberweisungen am polnischen BIP ist jedoch stark rückläufig und spielt im Vergleich zu ausländischen Direktinvestitionen eine untergeordnete Rolle. Polen ist insgesamt ein attraktiver Investitionsstandort geworden. Doch beim Ausbleiben weiterer Zugewinne bei der Arbeitsproduktivität, etwa durch gezielte Fachkräfteanwerbung, könnte das Land einen wesentlichen Wettbewerbsvorteil zukünftig verlieren. Das bisherige Erfolgsrezept der zunehmenden Qualifizierung und tertiären Bildung des inländischen Arbeitskräfteangebots könnte an seine Grenzen stoßen. Neue Herausforderungen kommen ebenfalls durch den Krieg in der Ukraine und dessen Auswirkungen auf Energiepreise und Lieferketten. Bisher konnte die polnische Regierung durch staatliche Maßnahmen die Belastungen abfedern, diese Entlastungen laufen aber Ende 2023 aus. Die zweistellige Inflationsrate stellt die polnische Zentralbank ebenfalls unter Zugzwang. Die hohen Leitzinsen von 6, 75 Prozent dämpfen am aktuellen Rand die konjunkturellen Aussichten. Ein spezifischer Erfolgsfaktor für diese beispiellose Transformation von einer planwirtschaftlich gelenkten hin zu einer vollständigen Marktwirtschaft war die Einbettung der wirtschaftlichen Liberalisierung in stabile demokratische Institutionen. Als Katalysator und Anker der kritischen Marktreformen und institutionellen Transformation hat die Europäische Union eine ganz wesentliche Rolle gespielt. Die finanziellen Mittel aus dem EU-Haushalt haben zudem den Infrastrukturausbau in Polen entscheidend mitermöglicht. Zum Zweiten ist als positiver Faktor die Bildungsintensivierung zu nennen. Kombiniert mit geringen Arbeitskosten und der liberalen Arbeitsmarktpolitik hat dies ausländische Firmen angelockt, ihre arbeitsintensiven Fertigungsschritte nach Polen auszulagern. Zunehmend konnte sich Polen so in die weltweiten und besonders in die europäischen Wertschöpfungsketten integrieren. Die vollständige Integration in den europäischen Binnenmarkt durch den EU-Beitritt im Jahr 2004 hat dieser Entwicklung einen entscheidenden Schub verliehen. Die Exportstruktur ist dabei relativ diversifiziert, was die Schockanfälligkeit gegenüber einzelnen Sektoren reduziert. Trotz steigender Lohnstückkosten konnte Polen durch die Abwertung der eigenen Währung seine Position im internationalen Wettbewerb verbessern und so die Exporte in der letzten Dekade stark steigern. Als zweites Standbein neben der Exportorientierung kann sich Polen auf einen relativ starken Binnenkonsum verlassen, der besonders bei einer schwächeren Weltwirtschaft Stabilität verschafft. Diese Dynamik bei der Industrieproduktion ist ein weiterer spezifischer Erfolgsfaktor des polnischen Wirtschaftsmodells. Als Hocheinkommensland steht das Land nun aber an einem Scheideweg, denn das Aufrechterhalten des dynamischen Wachstums auf diesem Niveau verlangt größere Anstrengungen. Strukturelle Herausforderungen auf diesem Weg sind die Steigerung der Innovationskraft, etwa durch gezielte Weiterbildung und Investitionen in die Forschung und Entwicklung (F&E), die Meisterung der grünen Transformation, besonders durch die Reduzierung der Abhängigkeit von Kohle und dem Ausbau der erneuerbaren Energien, sowie die Verbesserung des Investitionsklimas. Dafür bedarf es vor allem der Stabilität, Verlässlichkeit und Transparenz, etwa beim Investitionsschutz und der Rechtssicherheit. Die polnische Regierung sollte hier genauso pragmatisch zu Reformen bereit sein, wie sie es in der Vergangenheit bereits praktiziert hat. Dies würde zudem die Spannungen mit der Europäischen Kommission auf diesem Gebiet lösen und die Voraussetzung für die Auszahlung der Finanzmittel aus dem Wiederaufbaufonds der Europäischen Union schaffen. Angesichts zahlreicher Herausforderungen und Investitionsbedarfe wären diese Gelder von großem Nutzen für Polen und könnten zudem Anreize für notwendige Reformen setzen.
    JEL: O11 O43 P47
    Date: 2023
  20. By: R.M.R, Ahammed; Perera, Rasitha Thilini Suranjana; K.G.D, Piyumali; Kaluarachchi, K.D. K. G; D, Silva S. K. B.; Munagamage, Thilini; P, Piyankarage C. S.; Shahmy, Seyed (National Science and Technology Commission); Karunaratne, Veranja
    Abstract: Agriculture in Sri Lanka occupies 45.46% of the land and consumes over 80% of the country's freshwater resources. Rice farming is the most prominent agricultural practice, with 1.8 million families engaged in it. The tea plantation sector produces tea annually, contributing to 285, 877 metric tons of export volume. Tea exports contribute nearly 38% of the total agricultural products, with a target of $2, 044 million in income by 2025. Climate change and natural resources significantly impact agriculture, with irregular rainfall patterns, temperature variation, and drought causing significant challenges. The proposed interventions under the food crops, plantation, and export crops sectors include enhancing certified seed production, promoting value-added products, and developing training and awareness programs for low-carbon lifestyles. Food security is another area where climate change impacts the agricultural sector, with nearly 26% of the population affected by food security by 2050 due to the COVID-19 pandemic and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. To address this issue, the proposed strategic interventions aim to achieve SDG 1, SDG 2, and SDG 13, the recommendations of the Paris Agreement on Climate Change, and the actions of the Milan Urban Food Policy Fund. However, more concerns can be put forward to minimize or eliminate diseases in agricultural sectors due to climate change and minimize food waste or loss.
    Date: 2023–10–20
  21. By: Mikhaylov, Dmitry (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration)
    Abstract: During the last decade a lot of academic papers consider the possibility of predicting the economic fluctuations and macroeconomic variables volatility with the use of news data. The reason for this is the development of new machine learning techniques and enhancement of the existed methods. The scientific problem of our study is the investigation of whether predictive power of the forecast of macroeconomic variables can be improved with the use of news data in the context of Russia. We apply NLU algorithms and techniques for topic modeling. Especially, we implement LDA (Latent Dirichlet Allocation) since this approach has shown its effectiveness in the published papers related to the mentioned framework. Then the frequency news and sentiment news indexes are constructed with the use of modeled topics. The end point of our research is the forecast analysis of the set of macroeconomics variables [CPI (π), Business Confidence Index (BCI), Consumer Confidence Index (CCI), Export (EX), Import (IM), Net Export (NX)] supplemented by inclusion of frequency and sentiment news indexes in order to evaluated the improvement in predictive power. We have shown that the inclusion of frequency news indexes and sentiment news indexes, based on the LDA approach in the forecast models can improve the quality of the predictions and increase the predictive power for some variables.
    Keywords: Macroeconomic Forecasting, Natural Language Processing, Machine Learning
    JEL: E27 E37
    Date: 2023–04–14

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