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on Confederation of Independent States |
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Issue of 2023‒11‒06
33 papers chosen by |
| By: | Bagdasaryan, Kniaz (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Baeva, Marina (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Zaytsev, Yury (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Knobel, Alexander (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Loschenkova, Anna (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | The statistics on foreign direct investment (FDI) for 2017 published in early April by the Central Bank of Russia shows a change in the dynamics of an increase in FDI inflows to the Russian Federation that was outlined in 2016 and in the first three quarters of 2017. The slowdown in capital inflows in 4Q 2017 reflected the deteriorating sentiment of foreign investors associated with negative expectations of new US sanctions, as well as a drop in demand for Russian government bonds. Positive investor sentiment was reflected by the positive dynamics of FDI flows in the first three quarters of 2017, when the level of incoming FDI amounted to USD 24.8 billion, which is more than 2 times compared to the same period in 2016. The increase in inflows over this period is due to transactions such as the sale of a 10% stake in the Russian petrochemical holding Sibur to the Chinese Silk Road Fund, the launch of the construction of a Mercedes-Benz automobile plant by the German company Daimler in the Esipovo industrial park, which became the first largest project after the introduction of anti-Russian sanctions by the Western company in Russia. Existing assessments of the impact of sanctions on key macroeconomic indicators provide a rough understanding of their significance for foreign investors. Under the new conditions, foreign investors developed their own approaches to respond to the sanctions regime, depending on their sectoral specialization and the degree of orientation towards the Russian and/or foreign markets. Nevertheless, according to the results of 2017, the volume of foreign direct investment (FDI) attracted to Russia from the EU countries exceeded USD 14 billion (which is more than 6 times the level of 2016). Consequently, a high potential for investment cooperation remains between Russia and the EU countries, despite the sanctions regime. Relevance of the study: portfolio and foreign direct investment are an important source of capital that complements domestic private investment and is often associated with creating new jobs, stimulating technological exchange and encouraging overall economic growth in host countries. Important factors in FDI inflows are the level of the exchange rate and its volatility. The need for an empirical analysis of the impact of the exchange rate on FDI inflows to Russia is caused by the currency crisis of 2014-2015, when the Russian ruble devalued due to the fall in world oil prices, as well as a number of foreign policy events. The purpose of this study is to assess the impact of the level of the exchange rate and its trend on the inflow of direct and portfolio foreign investment in the Russian Federation. In accordance with the goal, the following tasks will be solved: – Review of the theoretical and empirical literature on the role of the exchange rate in the inflow of foreign investment; – Analysis of foreign direct investment flows in Russia and in the world; – Building models that take into account the impact of the exchange rate of the national currency of Russia on the inflow of foreign direct investment in the sectors of the Russian economy; – Evaluation of econometric models to study the influence of the exchange rate on the inflow of foreign direct investment to the countries of the world in order to test the hypotheses put forward in the work; – Interpretation of the results and development of recommendations for the Russian foreign economic policy, taking into account the results of the study. The initial data of the work were statistical databases, both international and Russian, in particular, open statistical data provided by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, the Federal State Statistics Service, the Eurasian Economic Commission, regulatory and program documents regulating the activities of the regions of the Russian Federation with a special (special legal) regime for the implementation of entrepreneurial and other activities, as well as cases of the largest and most successful investment projects implemented on the territory of individual constituent entities of the Russian Federation. |
| Keywords: | Exchange Rate, Foreign Investment, Foreign Direct Investment, Investment Climate, Import Substitution, Economic Sanctions, Globalization, Russian Federation |
| JEL: | F31 |
| Date: | 2023–02–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:w20220265&r=cis |
| By: | Lomteva, Elena (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Bedareva, Larisa (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | Social and economic changes resulted in a transformation of youth’ values: the attitude towards higher education, granting both social status and, consequently, privileges in employment, became a history. However, the changes taking place in Russia, external to the vocational education system, may have a serious impact on the behavior of young people in the near future, especially young men, who will be more targeted to enroll in full-time higher education programs. |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, secondary education, vocational education |
| JEL: | I21 I22 I23 |
| Date: | 2022–11–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:w20220255&r=cis |
| By: | Knobel, Alexander (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Zaytsev, Yury (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Kuznetsov, Dmitry (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | This working paper is devoted to identifying patterns of spatial and sectoral distribution of foreign direct investment enterprises in the Russian Federation and to developing recommendations for optimizing the strategy of attracting foreign direct investment to the Russian Federation. In the framework of the study, the following methods were applied: the method of macroeconomic modeling, evaluation of econometric models, as well as logical, systemic, comparative, economic and statistical analysis. Statistical data at the enterprise level were used from the «RUSLANA» and «SPARK-INTERFAX» databases. The results of the study allows to point out some characteristic features of the spatial distribution of foreign enterprises, which must be taken into account when forming a picture of preferences of foreign investors and the policy of attracting foreign investors to Russian regions. |
| Keywords: | Foreign Direct Investments, Russian and Foreign Enterprises, Micro-analysis |
| Date: | 2023–07–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:w20220266&r=cis |
| By: | Klimanov, Vladimir (Климанов, Владимир) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Timushev, Evgeny (Тимушев, Евгений) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | The relevance of identifying the main trends in the system of powers legally assigned to the subjects of the Russian Federation is due to the lack of relevant work for more than twenty years of its existence. The purpose of the study is to establish the main trends in the evolution of the content and functional areas of the powers of the subjects of the Russian Federation within the joint jurisdiction of the Russian Federation and the subjects of the Russian Federation in accordance with the federal legislation. The object of the study is the mechanism of distribution of powers in the budgetary system of the Russian Federation. The hypothesis of the study was that during the long period of the formation of the mechanism of the distribution of powers, the goal of their clear differentiation was not achieved, independence of the state authorities remained low, and a new federal law regulating this area did not make cardinal changes. According to the results obtained, federal legislation allows for the actual expansion of the closed list of powers of the subjects of the Russian Federation on within the joint jurisdiction. Taking into account the possibility of delegating federal state powers and the absence of a closed list of powers of the Russian Federation, this causes the absence of a clear distribution of authority between the Russian Federation and the subjects of the Russian Federation. The tendency to expand the areas assigned to the subjects along with a constant amount of budget revenues actualize the risks of imbalance and financial instability. The novelty of the research consists in establishing the main trends in the evolution of the content and functional areas of the powers of the subjects of the Russian Federation within the joint jurisdiction of the Russian Federation and the subjects of the Russian Federation. For the first time, the nature of the change in the composition of powers due to the adoption of the new federal law No. 414-FZ instead of federal law No. 184-FZ are analyzed. Research methodology are structural and substantive analysis of federal legislation, grouping and systematization, comparative analysis. |
| Keywords: | expenditure powers, expenditure obligations, functional classification of expenditures, joint management, priority of execution, classification, federal legislation |
| JEL: | H72 H75 H76 H77 |
| Date: | 2023–09–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:w20220260&r=cis |
| By: | Potashnikov, Vladimir (Поташников, Владимир) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Levakov, Pavel (Леваков, Павел) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | Currently many sectors of the Russian economy, including the fuel and energy sector, are undergoing structural changes. This is due both to the energy transformation (a significant change in the structure of the energy balance) and the recent events of 2022. The article analyzes how these changes will affect the Russian energy sector. Firstly, the risks of reducing natural gas exports to the EU countries are assessed. Gas supplies to the EU are a significant part of Russia's export earnings, and the supplies themselves are difficult to redirect to other directions. Secondly, it is analyzed how recent changes will affect the development of the energy sector using the example of two scenarios for the development of the energy industry before and after 2022. Finally, it is assessed how the changes that have taken place will affect the effectiveness of an active climate policy in Russia. The possibility of a reduction in domestic demand for gas in the EU or an increase in production is unlikely. However, an increase in LNG (liquefied natural gas) imports is possible, which may allow the EU to abandon natural gas imports from Russia in the coming years. EU nominal regasification capacity allows for a potential increase in EU LNG imports by 110 billion cubic meters per year. This can be done both by redirecting supplies from other countries to the EU, and by increasing production and liquefaction of LNG. As a result of an increased sanctions pressure, with a high degree of probability, without an active climate policy, the level of greenhouse gas emissions will increase significantly. In addition to climate effects and associated negative environmental impact, this also negatively affects the prospects for economic development. Thus, greater consumption of fossil fuels makes the economy more dependent on their prices and reduces the potential for an increase in the volume of export. An analysis of decarbonization scenarios has shown that because of the recent events, an active climate policy will cost more, with more modest results. |
| Keywords: | natural gas, climate policy, international trade, energy, decarbonization, RUTIMES, LNG, Representative Energy System |
| JEL: | F1 O13 Q4 |
| Date: | 2022–11–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:w20220267&r=cis |
| By: | Nikulin, Alexander (Никулин, Александр) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Gusakov, Timur (Гусаков, Тимур) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Trotsuk, Irina (Троцук, Ирина) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | The relevance of the study is determined by the fact that in recent decades, peripheralization of rural spaces in Russia has intensified in the form of the expansion of abandoned agricultural lands, disappearance of rural settlements, and a general long-term social-demographic depression. Concerning the spatial and food security of Russia, the re-development of peripheral rural territories is the most important condition for the viability and sustainable development of the country. The study aims at presenting a typology of models of rural development and rural differentiation in the peripheral territories of Russia as based on regional resources and the potential of local territories – in order to integrate them into the all-Russian programs of rural development. The subject is specific Russian cases of the development of rural peripheral territories and general trends in the revival of the depressed rural periphery. The methods combine the elements of the quantitative (statistical data, secondary analysis) and qualitative (expert semi-formalized interviews) approaches within the case study. Based on the results of the study, the paper describes the latest trends in the peripheralization of even the old-developed Russian regions, i.e., measures for the centralization of spatial development often exacerbate the depth of peripherization. The paper concludes with the main indicators of the rural periphery viability (ability to cope with systemic shocks and uncertainty, ability to radically change the trajectory of one’s development) and the features of the sustainable peripheral rural system. The novelty of the study is determined by an attempt to develop a typology of rural periphery and by a systematic analysis of its problems within both the agrarian re-development strategies and projects of ecological-recreational and cultural-historical types. The paper provides some recommendations on the development of rural periphery: more diverse economic activities of rural residents; more market-oriented institutions to ensure a transition from informal economic interactions to the formalized ones; stronger social capital in order to more easily mobilize internal and external resources. |
| Keywords: | periphery, center, agrarian policy, depressed areas, innovations, ecology, re-development, rural development, rural differentiation, models |
| Date: | 2022–11–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:w20220215&r=cis |
| By: | Levashenko, Antonina (Левашенко, Антонина) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Ermokhin, Ivan (Ермохин, Иван) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | The paper analyzes the regulation of the green finance market in Russia and in the world, and also formulates proposals for the development of regulation in order to improve Russian mechanisms for sustainable (including green) development and harmonize the Russian approach to such regulation with international approaches. The relevance of the work lies in the need to develop regulation of the market for sustainable (including green) financing in Russia, taking into account the growth in the size of the global market, as well as the development of such regulation in foreign countries. The object of the research is the regulation of the market for sustainable (including green) financing in Russia and in the world. The purpose of the study is to formulate proposals for regulating the market for sustainable (including green) financing in Russia in order to improve Russian mechanisms for sustainable (including green) development and harmonize the Russian approach to such regulation with international approaches. Based on the study, the following results were obtained: an analysis was made of the approaches of foreign countries and international organizations in the field of regulation of green finance; an analysis of the regulation of green finance in Russia was carried out, inconsistencies between Russian practices of such regulation and international ones were identified. In addition, the risks that such a discrepancy creates were described; proposals for the development of market regulation in Russia were formed, taking into account the best international practices. The practical significance of the work lies in the possibility of using its results for the development of regulatory legal acts aimed at developing the regulation of the market for sustainable (including green) financing in Russia. |
| Keywords: | sustainable finance, green finance, international standards, responsible business conduct, OECD |
| Date: | 2022–11–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:w20220228&r=cis |
| By: | Kuznetsov, Dmitry (Кузнецов, Дмитрий) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | The goal of this paper is to empirically assess the impact of exchange rate shocks on prices and quantities of Russian exports and imports. The relevance of the work is dictated by the sanctions imposed on Russia in 2022, which can complicate international payments in the dominant currencies in international trade, and by subsequent economic policy measures aimed at reducing the role of the dollar and the euro in Russian foreign trade. Modern studies consider the currency of the contract as one of the most important factors influencing the magnitude of the exchange rate pass-through effect on prices and quantities of exports and imports. The main assumption of such models – short-term price rigidity in terms of contract currency – matches the behavior of real data. These models also predict the dependence of the pass-through effect on the firm's share of the product-country market. In this paper, based on econometric analysis of detailed data from customs statistics of the Russian Federation, it is shown that the key to the dynamics of exports and imports is not bilateral exporter-importer rates, but exporter and importer rates to the dominant currencies in world trade (US dollar and euro), and prices are rigid in the contract currency. Because of the asymmetry in the response between importer currency shocks and exporter currency shocks to the contract currency, there is a statistically and economically significant effect of a uniform appreciation of the dominant currency. This means that Russia's foreign trade prices and quantities respond to the dynamics of the contract currency even if neither the exporter nor the importer is a country issuing the contract currency. This response persists in the long run, and therefore cannot be explained solely by short-term price rigidity. The pass-through effect depends on the value of exports and imports, which is consistent with the predictions of the theory. The main conclusion of the paper is that diversification of the currency structure of foreign trade contract payments will contribute to the sustainability of Russian foreign trade, but the question of the costs of such a transition remains beyond the scope of this study. |
| Keywords: | exports, imports, exchange rate, dominant currencies, contract currency, microdata |
| JEL: | L23 F14 |
| Date: | 2022–11–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:w20220214&r=cis |
| By: | Zubov, Sergey (Зубов, Сергей) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Vedev, Aleksey (Ведев, Алексей) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Kovaleva, Marina (Ковалева, Марина) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | The relevance of the study lies in the fact that credit institutions are actively involved in the process of transforming the financial market in the context of the digital transformation of the economy. The object of the study is commercial banks operating in the financial and banking services market. The subject of the study is the system of economic relations between participants in the financial and banking services market in a competitive environment. The purpose of the study is to conduct a comprehensive assessment of the level of banking competition and its impact on the qualitative and quantitative indicators of the functioning of the national banking system. The research methodology includes methods of scientific abstraction, economic and statistical analysis, functional and structural analysis, a systematic approach, a comparison method, graphical and tabular techniques for visualizing statistical and other data, generalization and formalization. The project was carried out as part of the research work of the Structural Research Laboratory of the IAER RANEPA under the President of the Russian Federation in 2022. Research results: development of the theoretical concept of banking competition, taking into account the changed external and internal conditions (digitalization of all spheres of life, transformation of the global financial architecture); study of the processes of banking competition in the Russian Federation and abroad, identification of the main markers of the dynamics of changes in the competitive environment in the context of growing development of ecosystems and banking marketplaces; determination of the main prospects for the transformation of the Russian banking system, analysis of risks associated with the practice of banking mergers and acquisitions. Research prospects: development of methodological tools for an integrated assessment of the level of banking competition in various segments of the financial market. |
| Keywords: | Banks, banking competition, banking services, competitiveness, regulatory sandboxes, government regulation |
| JEL: | D41 E58 F12 G21 G32 L13 L41 |
| Date: | 2022–11–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:w20220212&r=cis |
| By: | Pakhomov, Alexander (Пахомов, Александр) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Bagdasaryan, Kniaz (Багдасарян, Княз) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | Due to the changes in the geo-economic situation at the beginning of 2022, the focus of this research is shifted from the general analysis of foreign trade strategies of foreign countries to the study of trade policies of key countries against Russia (including common approaches and sanctions), as well as the response of the Russian side. This approach determines the novelty and relevance of this study. The significance of the work is determined by the research in scientific and applied aspects of the problems of forming common priorities and tools in trade policy of the leading countries of the world, which depend on the global scientific and technological development. Trade policy is a purposeful activity of the state to promote and protect the interests of national business in global markets. The results of the study indicate attempts to create and consolidate new rules of the world economy based on the concept of energy transition and technological breakthrough, which has a negative impact on the established rules of the world economy and international trade. |
| Keywords: | global economy, trade policy, foreign economic strategy, Russian Federation |
| JEL: | F02 F13 |
| Date: | 2022–11–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:w20220225&r=cis |
| By: | Beloborodova, Anna |
| Abstract: | How polarized is Russian society regarding the war in Ukraine? Political views have an impact on various behaviors, including relationship formation. In this paper I study the extent of polarization in the Russian society regrading the war in Ukraine by conducting a field experiment on a large Russian dating site and collecting data on more than 3, 000 profile evaluations. The findings reveal sizable penalties for those who express pro-war or anti-war positions on their dating profiles, suggesting considerable levels of polarization in the Russian society regarding the war. Age of the online dating site users is the most divisive factor, as younger individuals are less likely to approach pro-war profiles but not anti-war profiles, while older individuals are less likely to respond positively to profiles indicating anti-war views but not pro-war views. |
| Keywords: | affective polarization; relationship formation; assortative mating; field experiment; war in Ukraine |
| JEL: | C93 D1 J12 |
| Date: | 2023–10–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:118862&r=cis |
| By: | Tulun, Teoman Ertuğrul (Center For Eurasian Studies (AVİM)) |
| Abstract: | In our AVİM analysis published at the beginning of 2017 entitled “Front Line and Powder Keg of The New Cold War: The Baltic Sea Region, Baltic Countries, and Kaliningrad”, we stated that “following the dissolution of the Soviet Union and subsequent accession of Poland and the Baltic Countries into NATO, Kaliningrad became a vital military outpost for Russia” and pointed out that Russia had moved nuclear-capable Iskander-M missiles into the Kaliningrad in October 2016 along with the highly-capable S-400 anti-aircraft weapon system. As it is known, the Kaliningrad Oblast is an exclave of the Russian Federation located on the coast of the Baltic Sea between Poland and Lithuania. |
| Date: | 2023–10–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:vf8rp&r=cis |
| By: | Popova, Irina (Попова, Ирина) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | The relevance of the study we determine the need to study pedagogical support as a factor that can have a significant impact on the formation of conditions for the development and positive socialization of children in difficult situations. Addressing this issue is associated with the solution of problems of the state level in terms of prevention of destructive phenomena in children and adolescents. The subject of the study is the specifics of the conditions of pedagogical support for children in difficult life situations in Russian and foreign practice. The purpose of the study: analysis of scientific approaches and developments that provide theoretical and methodological justification and effectiveness of practical activities to provide pedagogical support for children in difficult life situations as a condition for preventing victimization of the child population and the development of destructive phenomena in the child and adolescent environment. The basis of the study were the results of content analysis of Russian dissertations for the period 1996-2019 years and foreign scientific articles in the framework of the stated problems. Research methods: content analysis of dissertation studies and scientific publications, systematization, analysis and synthesis of the information obtained. Scientific novelty of the study is to assess the current state and development of the problems of pedagogical support for children in difficult situations in contemporary Russian scientific research. As a result, we found that Russian scholars in their dissertations widely presented the areas of study of pedagogical support. The study examined 340 Russian dissertations for degrees in pedagogy and psychology. Among the angles of scientific development of the problems of pedagogical support are the varied aspects of support for children with difficulties in the educational process (56%), issues of support for students (27%), and families (17%). However, Russian researchers have reflected the specifics of pedagogical support for children in difficult situations in a small number of works (14%), usually focused on children with disabilities. Among the deficient aspects of studying pedagogical support are such areas as research on comparative basis (2%), development of methodological and technological support of pedagogical support (14%), addressing the problem of teachers' readiness to provide pedagogical support to children in the educational process (13%). Russian scholars in their dissertation studies have not sufficiently disclosed the potential of the participatory approach in solving the problems of pedagogical support (14%). Based on the results obtained, the main conclusion is that the study of the essential characteristics of the phenomenon of pedagogical support for children of socially vulnerable categories is important for the development of pedagogical science. Currently, science and practice are in demand to develop promising scientific directions for the methodology of designing conditions of support for various groups of children in difficult life situations, not focusing only on children with disabilities. There is a particular need to develop scientific research on this issue in the direction of supporting children from low-income families, from migrant families, from families with socially destructive educational content. Recommendations: at a time of global geopolitical transformation, in order to create conditions for the development and positive socialization of children in difficult situations, it is necessary to disseminate among practicing teachers the results of scientific developments in the field of pedagogical support for children of socially vulnerable categories. The model of resistant schools, which has proven effective in working with children from families with low socio-economic and cultural status, should now be widely implemented in the Russian education system. In the conditions of Russian reality, the application of an empathic and participatory approach and facilitation. Implementation of these recommendations is possible if teachers and heads of educational organizations are better prepared to master modern evidence-based approaches and evidence-based practices in solving the problems of pedagogical support for children of socially vulnerable categories. |
| Keywords: | pedagogical support, methodology of pedagogical support, children in difficult situations, conceptual foundations of pedagogical support for children, models of pedagogical support for children of socially vulnerable categories, methods of pedagogical support, technologies of pedagogical support |
| Date: | 2023–07–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:w20220241&r=cis |
| By: | Alasheev, Sergey (Алашеев, Сергей) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Kuteinitsyna, Tatiana (Кутейницына, Татьяна) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Postalyuk, Natalia (Посталюк, Наталья) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Prudnikova, Victoria (Прудникова, Виктория) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Reprintseva, Elena (Репринцева, Елена) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | The relevance of the study is determined by the current Russian agenda in the field of personnel advanced training and retraining in connection with the change in technological priorities and the policy of "import substitution". The objects of observation were the programs of advanced training and professional retraining of workers, employees and mid-level specialists being implemented in the regions of Russia and the organizations providing these programs. The purpose of the study is to identify the state and trends in the development of the system of personnel with applied qualifications advanced training and professional retraining in the context of transformations in the qualification demand in regional labor markets. The research tools included indicators that characterize various aspects of the implementation process and results of additional professional programs for personnel with applied qualifications. To describe the structure of data and their distributions, dynamic and structural analysis, mapping and other tools of descriptive statistics were used. Main results. Inter-regional differences and intra-regional disproportions in the field of additional professional education and training of workers and mid-level specialists in Russia are revealed. Significant disproportions in the employment structures of the regions in the context of workers categories and contingents of advanced training and retraining programs for personnel with applied qualifications have been established. A rating of subjects of the Russian Federation to the Structural Imbalance Index, which fixes the level of mismatch between the coverage of additional professional programs for workers and mid-level specialists and their place in the region labor market was formed. Scientific novelty. For the first time, a comprehensive study of the evolution of additional vocational education and training of workers, employees and mid-level specialists was carried out, in which inter-regional and intra-regional comparisons were made, revealing trends and disproportions in its development, taking into account the regional economic context. Recommendations. The data obtained make it possible to assess the extent to which the potential of personnel with applied qualifications is maintained, increased and updated in the Russian regions, taking into account their place in the structure of employment of a constituent entity of the Russian Federation. The results of the study can be used by federal and regional executive authorities in order to eliminate imbalances in the quality of labor markets staffing. |
| Keywords: | personnel with applied qualifications, imbalance, indicators, labor market, employment structure |
| JEL: | C43 C81 I21 I25 J44 R58 |
| Date: | 2023–08–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:w20220246&r=cis |
| By: | Ge Gao (Beijing Sport University); Alex Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy (Lehigh University); Oleksandr Talavera (University of Birmingham) |
| Abstract: | In this study, we examined the effectiveness of central bank communications during times of significant adverse shocks. Specifically, we examined how the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) regulated foreign exchange (FX) markets during the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022. Data collected from both the black and authorized FX markets suggested that the content of the NBU’s announcements significantly impacted FX market agents. Announcements aimed at maintaining a fixed (floating) FX rate prompted an increase (decrease) in the black market premium in cash transactions. Moreover, the NBU's announcements influenced the sale side of foreign currency more than any other aspect, an area where the black market FX traders held near monopolistic power. |
| Keywords: | Russia-Ukraine war, central bank communications, black market premium, forex, ChatGPT |
| JEL: | D83 E44 E58 F31 |
| Date: | 2023–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bir:birmec:23-09&r=cis |
| By: | David R. DeRemer (Nazarbayev University, Graduate School of Business); Yelzhas Kadyr (KU Leuven, Faculteit Economie en Bedrijfswetenschappen, Vlaams Instituut voor Economie en Samenleving (VIVES)); Aigerim Yergabulova (Nazarbayev University, Graduate School of Business) |
| Abstract: | Kazakhstan was the top destination country for Russian immigrants in 2022, a year when Russian emigration sharply increased due to new international sanctions and war mobilization. The circumstances offer a rare opportunity to explore how a large sudden skill-abundant immigration within an economic union affects firm employment dynamics for a middle-income receiving country. Kazakhstan and Russia share the world's longest continuous land border, so immigration effects are regionally dispersed rather than concentrated solely in cities, and Kazakhstan offers business registers data to explore firm-level employment dynamics. Absent fine regional data on immigration flows, our empirical approach uses a pre-war share of the Russian population in 215 districts of Kazakhstan as a reduced-form instrument for the treatment of Russian immigration. We find no pre-war trends in firm employment growth related to the Russian district population shares. Using difference-in-differences estimation, we find large effects of 2022 Russian immigration on the employment growth for Kazakhstan's incumbent firms in more affected regions. The employment growth is larger for small firms, young foreign-owned firms, older domestic firms, and ICT firms, and results are robust to the exclusion or inclusion of Kazakhstan's two major cities of Almaty and Astana. We estimate that Kazakhstan's regions, excluding the two major cities, would have experienced a private sector employment fall of 86, 500 in 2022 rather than the actual increase of 21, 500 if Russian immigration flows had not occurred. |
| Keywords: | gender pay inequality, occupations, foreign ownership, Kazakhstan |
| Date: | 2023–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:asx:nugsbw:2023-09&r=cis |
| By: | Ustyuzhanin, Vadim (Устюжанин, Вадим) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Zinkina, Yulia (Зинкина, Юлия) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Korotaev, Andrey (Коротаев, Андрей) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Archangelsky, Vladimir (Архангельский, Владимир) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Efremov, Igor (Ефремов, Игорь) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Pustovalov, Denis (Пустовалов, Денис) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Novikov, Kirill (Новиков, Кирилл) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | Relevance. The relevance of “non-Western” associations of states, such as BRICS, is rapidly increasing as the global world order is in transit to multipolarity, going through geopolitical aggravation. The subject of the study is the demographic future of the BRICS countries and value shifts in these countries. The purpose of the study is to determine the impact of the demographic future of the BRICS countries on the prevalence of certain value attitudes among the population of these countries. The objectives of the study are to construct scenario forecasts for the demographic future of the BRICS countries and forecast the most significant consequences of each scenario in terms of shifts in value attitudes. Novelty – for the first time, the consequences of certain demographic development scenarios of the BRICS countries for the value landscape of these countries are considered. Research method: to construct scenario demographic forecasts, a cohort-component model (“age shifts”) of the “female-based” type was used. Data sources – to determine the value portrait of the country, the WVS data of the seventh wave was used; a country’s place on the map of values is determined by two axes – the axis of survival/selfexpression values and the axis of traditional-religious/secular-rational values. Results – it is shown that negative demographic scenario can lead to a noticeable weakening of BRICS both economically (due to a reduction in labor resources) and in value-cultural terms on the world stage. Conclusions – the implementation of the BRICS+ project will contribute to the significant impact of the union on the value-cultural map of the world. Recommendations. If the governments of China and Brazil do not soon take care of the problems of fertility rates and do not introduce the most active measures to support them, then the countries will find themselves in a “fertility trap” with a strong decline in population that cannot be compensated by migration. India should also begin to develop and take measures to support fertility rates, because due to active modernization, they will begin to naturally decline (which is what has been happening over the last decade, especially in the developed south of the country). Russia needs to simultaneously both pursue a proactive fertility-supporting policy, eliminate excess mortality from unhealthy lifestyles, and increase health care spending. |
| Keywords: | demography, men, women, gender, age, family values, value orientations |
| JEL: | J12 J13 J16 |
| Date: | 2023–10–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:w20220263&r=cis |
| By: | Sheburakov, Ilya (Шебураков, Илья) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Sheburakova, Oksana (Шебуракова, Оксана) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Tatarinova, Lyudmila (Татаринова, Людмила) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | The relevance of the research is due to the need to form a system of personnel audit in the civil service through the application of a unified methodology using the capabilities of the national information system for managing the personnel of the state civil service. The purpose of the research is to develop a methodology for a comprehensive analysis of the personnel, its processes (personnel dynamics) and the conditions of personnel work in the state civil service in the federal executive authorities and authorities of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation using the services of state information systems and other platform solutions.The objectives of the study are: to determine the conceptual foundations of the personnel audit of the state civil service; the development of a system of indicators characterizing the effectiveness of personnel management processes; the study of the possibility of the integration system and accumulation of information, analytical and statistical data, depending on the areas of personnel audit; the determination of the need for the development of specialized diagnostic tools to reach the goals of personnel audit; the development of a methodology for conducting a personnel audit, including: technologies for analyzing personnel processes (HR analytics); personnel statistics; algorithms for integrating data on the level of maturity of personnel and management technologies; the results of standardized socio-psychological surveys and public opinion surveys, as well as the possibility of taking into account the results of personal and professional diagnostics; preparation of a "road" map for the implementation of a methodology for analyzing the state of personnel work and the staffing of the state civil service in federal executive authorities and authorities of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation using state information systems services and other platform solutions; description of the methodology for organizing and conducting an audit of the state of the civil service in the federal executive authorities and authorities of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation; preparation of the regulative document’s draft fixing the methodology. The research methods and methodology are the comparative analysis, the method of expert assessments, the appraisal work, the analysis of statistical data, the group discussion method, the results of sociopsychological surveys and personal and professional diagnostics. While summarizing and analyzing empirical materials, methods of statistical data processing were used. The main practical results of the study: the preparation of a "road" map for the implementation of a methodology for analyzing the state of personnel work and personnel of the state civil service in federal executive authorities and authorities of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation using the services of state information systems and other platform solutions; the preparation of a methodology for organizing and conducting an audit of the state of the civil service in federal executive authorities and authorities of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation: the general procedure for organizing and conducting an audit, criteria for evaluating the effectiveness of each element of the work, the general estimated indicators of the personnel services work, the procedure for eliminating shortcomings; the preparation of the regulative document’s draft fixing the methodology; the development of a methodology for conducting a personnel audit, including: technologies for analyzing personnel processes (HR analytics); personnel statistics (data on the personnel, staff turnover, absenteeism, reasons for dismissals, etc.). The main conclusions: the results of the research can be useful for scientific and methodological support for improving the mechanisms for implementing personnel policy and personnel technologies in the state civil service; a comprehensive increase in the effectiveness of personnel policy in the state civil service, including increasing the involvement of employees in the processes of personal professional and career development, reducing the possibility of unreasonable personnel decisions and corruption risks; reducing the imbalance in the processes of managing human resources in the system of the state civil service. The research prospects may be related to: refinement of the results and conclusions obtained through testing in one of the federal government bodies, as well as the development of algorithms for using the services of the Federal State Information Systems and other platform solutions that allow systematizing the data obtained and using the results of data analysis in operational activities. |
| Keywords: | State civil service of the Russian Federation, state civil servant, personnel audit, personnel metrics, personal and professional diagnostics, socio-psychological surveys, levels of maturity of personnel technologies |
| JEL: | R13 R58 E61 Y80 |
| Date: | 2022–11–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:w20220257&r=cis |
| By: | Uzun, Vasily (Узун, Василий) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Shagaida, Natalia (Шагайда, Наталья) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Ternovskiy, Denis (Терновский, Денис) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Potapova, Alexandra (Потапова, Александра) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Shishkina, Ekaterina (Шишкина, Екатерина) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | The relevance of the topic - assessing the level of economic access to food - remains poorly developed in Russia. This study aims to fill this gap within the framework of the main ideas of the Food Security Doctrine of the Russian Federation. The purpose of this work is to develop approaches for assessing the level of food security among household members and highlight the main characteristics of households with different levels of food insecurity. The statistical basis for this study is the microdata from budget surveys conducted by Rosstat. The main content and results of this study are as follows: The concept of "food insecurity of the household" and its members is introduced. An overview of approaches used in different countries to identify individuals experiencing food insecurity is provided. The focus of the assessment shifts from evaluating the level of economic affordability of food based on decile groups and available resources to assessing the level of economic affordability of food for each household member. This analysis highlights the main characteristics of households or their members with varying levels of food insecurity. |
| Keywords: | Food security, food insecurity, households, economic affordability of food, balanced food assortment, vulnerable population groups based on economic affordability of food, Rosstat budget surveys |
| JEL: | Q18 Q11 R00 |
| Date: | 2023–07–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:w20220256&r=cis |
| By: | Firanchuk, Alexander (Фиранчук, Александр) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | The paper analyzes the impact of the ruble exchange rate on Russian imports from the EU27. The theoretical model considers exporters with elastic output and incompletely free redistribution of outputs between destination markets. The model predicts that an appreciation (depreciation) of the ruble exchange rate leads to an increase (decrease) in volumes, and the adjustment degree decreases as a destination market’s share in the firm's total exports increases. The degree of prices (in euros) adjustment to exchange rate changes, on the contrary, increases as the share of a destination market increases. The empirical results based on Eurostat data for 2005-21 are consistent with these hypotheses. The extensive component of import reaction is considered separately. I show the ruble depreciation reduces the probability of new companies entering the market and increases the probability of existing suppliers exit the market. At the same time, the probability of a firm's exit increases stronger when the share of the Russian market in the firm's total output decreases. |
| Date: | 2022–11–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:w20220209&r=cis |
| By: | Fernando, Gonzalez Laxe; José Francisco, Armesto Pina; Patricio, Sanchez-Fernandez |
| Abstract: | The year 2022 was featured by Russia's invasion of Ukraine, by the resurgence of COVID in China, by the fight against inflation and by the emergence of geo-political-economic factors among which uncertainty, complexity and the combination of new challenges such as actions derived from environmental challenges and protectionist ideas around international trade relations. The economic balance of the year focused on the evaluation of monetary policy measures. In 2022, these trends will harden, with the aim of cooling both demand and correcting inflation; although core inflation remains well above desired levels. |
| Keywords: | Galicia, National Accountability, Ukrania, China, international trade. |
| JEL: | E01 E02 H00 J01 J08 |
| Date: | 2023–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:118758&r=cis |
| By: | Sedalishchev, Vladimir (Седалищев, Владимир) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Eremin, Vladimir (Ерёмин, Владимир) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | Over the past century, as one of the main trends in international trade, one should note the noticeable liberalization of trade throughout the world, this trend is still widely supported today in the activities of many economic associations, ranging from the activities of the WTO and the IMF to the activities of economic associations in within the framework of regional trade agreements, for example, the EAEU, the EU and others. Along with the trend towards globalization, there is a decrease in non-tariff barriers to trade in goods and services, and other obstacles to capital flows. The issue of countries taking part in integration processes is widely discussed and debatable, as the object of study is the economies of the EAEU countries, the EU and the economies of Russia's key trading partners. The purpose of the study is to assess the consequences (macroeconomic and sectoral) for the EAEU countries from the implementation by various countries of a number of provisions of agreements governing the functioning of potential integration associations that include the EAEU, and, based on the estimates obtained, to form a profile of foreign trade policy strategies for the EAEU countries, taking into account internal and external situations for choosing the optimal integration directions of the EAEU. The results of the study presented in this paper are as follows: Calculations based on data in the form of a global matrix of social accounts for 2019 showed that under any bilateral scenario of Russia's integration with the 16 listed on the EAEU site, Russia is unlikely to be able to achieve an increase of more than half a percent of GDP. At the same time, no significant industry risks are expected for it. As the country-by-country analysis of the games showed, with the simultaneous entry of several countries into the EAEU, there are no noticeable synergy effects and Russia's gains are approximately equal to the sum of the gains from agreements with each of the partners. |
| Keywords: | global economy, trade policy, Russian Federation, foreign economic strategy, computable general equilibrium models, input-output tables, GTAP database, export restrictions, global social account matrices |
| JEL: | F02 F13 |
| Date: | 2022–11–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:w20220229&r=cis |
| By: | Voloshinskaya, Anna (Волошинская, Анна) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Gertsovskiy, Dmitry (Герцовский, Дмитрий) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Ivanova, Margarita (Иванова, Маргарита) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Semenova, Roza (Семенова, Роза) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Zemtsov, Stepan (Земцов, Степан) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | Relevance of the research. In economics, a variety of approaches are used to study local entrepreneurial ecosystems - from statistical methods to network analysis, which allow to quantify the scale of a phenomenon or the magnitude of the potential effect. In the case when it is necessary to determine the key causes and factors of the process under study, the methodological tools of the scientist can be expanded through the methods of sociological survey of entrepreneurship. The results of the presented work will allow not only to expand the methodological apparatus of researchers of local SME ecosystems, but also to develop proposals for improving the effectiveness of state support measures for entrepreneurship in the regions of Russia. The aim of the study is to reveal the possibilities of using different methods to study entrepreneurship at the local level, as well as to analyze and generalize Russian and foreign experience in studying entrepreneurship. Research methods and methodology are comparative analysis, system analysis, qualitative analysis, historical and economic analysis. Scientific novelty is the author's classification of possible sociological approaches to the study of SMEs within local entrepreneurial ecosystems, as well as systematization of Russian and international empirical studies of entrepreneurship at the local level and identification of factors that stimulate business development. Results. Sociological methods, namely in-depth interviews, allow us to explore key causal relationships and offer new research hypotheses that can be further evaluated using statistical analysis methods. Achieving sustainable socio-economic development of the region will be facilitated by the implementation of targeted programs to support SMEs, taking into account regional institutional conditions and the specifics of the development of local entrepreneurial ecosystems. The key factors for the development of SMEs are the high volatility of markets, which motivates the development of new ideas for business, the availability of physical and commercial infrastructure. High risks for SMEs are associated with insufficient functional coordination of power structures, the lack of dialogue between business and government, the quality of government support measures implemented and business financing mechanisms. For start-up young entrepreneurs (under 30), the main barriers are the lack of start-up capital and the necessary business competencies, the lack of a business idea, and high taxes. |
| Keywords: | entrepreneurial ecosystem, SMEs, sociological research methods, regional economy |
| JEL: | M21 O18 |
| Date: | 2023–06–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:w20220258&r=cis |
| By: | Pokida, Andrey (Покида, Андрей) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Zybunovskaya, Natalia (Зыбуновская, Наталья) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | The scientific report presents a study conducted by the Research Center for Socio-Political Monitoring of the Institute of Social Sciences of the RANEPA. The relevance of research. Involvement of a significant part of the employed population in shadow processes. The demand for the shadow market of goods and services among the population. The need to obtain regular operational scientific information about the processes taking place in the shadow labor market in the new socio-economic reality, as well as the effect of the measures already taken aimed at limiting the shadow labor market. The purpose of the study is to analyze and evaluate of the dynamics of the prevalence of shadow forms of relationships in the modern labor market. The subject of the study is the main trends in the shadow labor market in modern conditions. The main research method is an all-Russian sociological survey of the employed Russian population and a comparison of the results obtained with the results of previous surveys. Based on the results of the study, an analysis and assessment of the attitude of the employed population to non-criminal shadow economic activity, from the point of view of the involvement of the population in the shadow labor market and the consumption of products produced on it. The study allows us to draw the following conclusions. Over the past year, there has been a decrease in the involvement of workers in various forms of shadow relations in the labor market. The decrease in the participation of respondents is recorded for various forms of their employment in the shadow labor market, including main and additional work. A significant part of the respondents still believe that informal (shadow) economic activity brings both benefits and harm to society in equal measure. This rather loyal attitude of employed citizens to informal employment and tax evasion supports the shadow labor market and creates prerequisites for their personal participation in shadow processes. The results of the study demonstrate a certain effect of the activities of state authorities to limit the participation of workers in the shadow labor market. Among those engaged in private practice, the attractiveness of using the new tax regime (NPD) is noted. At the same time, the fear of changing the conditions of the experiment act as constraining factors for its use among potential users. The results of the study demonstrate that awareness of the illegality of non-payment of taxes and the need to bear responsibility in this case is gradually increasing among citizens. Scientific novelty lies in obtaining up-to-date sociological information about the main trends in the field of noncriminal shadow economic activity, including the dynamics of population involvement in the shadow labor market. The recommendations based on the results of the study are related to the need to adjust management decisions in the field of stimulating official employment and limiting the participation of the population in the shadow labor market. |
| Keywords: | shadow labor market, employed in private practice, employees, informal wages, consumers of goods and services of the shadow market, restrictive measures, sociological survey of the employed population |
| JEL: | J46 |
| Date: | 2023–08–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:w20220247&r=cis |
| By: | Vedev, Aleksey (Ведев, Алексей) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Silchuk, Anastasia (Сильчук, Анастасия) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Tuzov, Konstantin (Тузов, Константин) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Kovaleva, Marina (Ковалева, Марина) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Eremkin, Vladimir (Ерёмкин, Владимир) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | The relevance of the topic is related to the need to organize systems of macroeconomic analysis, as well as to improve the accuracy of forecasting in the Republic of Uzbekistan. In this regard, the development of a socio-economic development forecast for various scenarios that take into account risks and opportunities seems to be the most important task for the economy of the Republic of Uzbekistan. The purpose of the study is to identify mechanisms and develop proposals for improving economic growth and investment attractiveness in the Republic of Uzbekistan. The subject of the study is the system of macroeconomic analysis and forecasting in the Republic of Uzbekistan in the medium term. The method or methodology of the study is based on the study of key current and retrospective data on the state of the sectors of the economy of the Republic of Uzbekistan, highlighting the most important risks for building a medium-term forecast. As a result of the work carried out, the key components of the public sector, financial and credit markets were analyzed, and an assessment was made of the impact of the worsening external environment. Thus, the paper presents estimates of the prerequisites for the forecast and develops possible scenarios for the development of sectors of the economy of the Republic of Uzbekistan. The scientific novelty of the study lies in the development of unique forecasts for the development of sectors of the economy of the Republic of Uzbekistan. The recommendations received as a result of the study indicate the need to develop mechanisms for responding to certain risks for the economy of the Republic of Uzbekistan, taking into account the possible consequences of such an impact presented in the forecast. |
| Keywords: | Medium-term planning, public administration, fiscal system, recovery growth, economics |
| JEL: | C53 E17 E37 E47 G17 |
| Date: | 2022–11–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:w20220210&r=cis |
| By: | Zemtsov, Stepan (Земцов, Степан) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Ivanova, Margarita (Иванова, Маргарита) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Mikhailov, Alexander (Михайлов, Александр) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Semenova, Roza (Семенова, Роза) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Voloshinskaya, Anna (Волошинская, Анна) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Gertsovskiy, Dmitry (Герцовский, Дмитрий) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Komarov, Vladimir (Комаров, Владимир) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | Sanctions pressure, disruption of production chains leads to crisis phenomena in the Russian economy in the context of most regions. For both federal and regional authorities, it is necessary not only to understand the main characteristics of the socio-economic development of the regions, but also to consider the sensitivity of regional resilience (shock resilience). The resilience of regions in terms of the rate of decline and recovery of GRP, investment activity, and budget revenues is calculated based on a large number of factors. The causes and factors of crisis phenomena in the economy, as well as the resilience, can be considered in the prism of theory and empiricism and become the basis for understanding public policy and making anti-crisis decisions. The aim of the study is to fully cover the phenomena of shock resilience of the economy using the analysis of theoretical views and empirical approaches. Research methods and methodology are historical-economic, comparative and system analysis, scientific-logical method, cartographic methods, index method. Scientific novelty consists in conducting a thorough and in-depth analysis of theories and concepts that describe the causes and factors of crisis phenomena in the economy with a final presentation of a comprehensive review of them, in which the emphasis is on revealing the historical context of their occurrence and describing crisis theories and models of modern economic reality. In addition, approaches to the definition of the phenomenon of shock resilience are classified, structural aspects and methods for calculating resilience are systematically described, and the author's systematization of works on the study of socioeconomic resilience is presented. Results. The analysis of economic cycles and models of economic crises revealed a regular cyclicity in the development of the views of economists on the nature of economic cycles, causes and overcoming possible consequences. Modern crisis processes happen largely because they are associated with two types of contradictions or imbalances - there are political and financial-economic ones, while the deep causes are universal world processes associated with changes in technological patterns. A grounded theory approach as the qualitative sociological method is becoming more and more in demand in modern studies related to the crisis in the economy; the results of its application to the disease pandemic, for example, showing that the corona crisis is a complex phenomenon that is directly or indirectly affected by the health crisis, government policies and human behavior. Among the most common methods of empirical research of economic resilience, the construction of complex indices and regression analysis of research resilience indicators stand out. The evolution of scientists' views on the causes and factors of crises, a review of the main approaches to the analysis of the phenomena of shock resilience, as well as an analysis of empirical studies of its results at the level of the economy of countries and regions are the main results of this study that expand the possibilities for understanding public policy and making the right anti-crisis decisions. |
| Keywords: | regional development, resilience, sustainability, economic crises |
| JEL: | R11 R58 |
| Date: | 2023–06–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:w20220259&r=cis |
| By: | Lyashok, Victor (Ляшок, Виктор) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Mkrtchyan, Nikita (Мкртчян, Никита) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Florinskaya, Yuliya (Флоринская, Юлия) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | The outflow of the population of young working age from the regions of the Far East and the Far North is a serious constraint on the economic and social development of these regions. Unfavorable climatic working and living conditions, underdeveloped economic and social infrastructure, distance from development centers, relatively low wages and lack of career and personal prospects - these factors encourage a significant part of young people to leave the region of the Far East and Far North. The objectives of the study are to answer the following questions: • What is the scale of departure of young people from the Far Eastern Federal District and the Far North? • What are the reasons for their departure? • How reliable are disposal volume statistics? • Is it possible for at least some of the young people to return to the regions of origin and under what conditions? The study was conducted on the basis of Rosstat statistics on the volume and structure of internal migration in Russia for 2011-2020, the results of a sample survey of the labor force in 2029-2022, as well as Rosstat reports “Socio-economic situation in Russia” in 2018-2022. The study shows that published statistics underestimate the real scale of the outflow of young workers from the regions of the Far East and Far North due to the so-called “auto-return” process. The North and Far East are losing young people during migration exchanges with large and major cities in the European part of the country. Large cities of the North and Far East compensate for the loss due to the influx from the periphery of these same regions. Retaining young people in the labor markets of the regions where they were born is only possible if there is an influx of investment into the regional economy and social sphere, and this process should not have the character of a short-term campaign, but be a long-term guarantee for several generations of workers. |
| Keywords: | young working age population, labor market, workplaces, salary, working career, migration, auto-return, Far East, Far North and equated areas |
| JEL: | R23 J6 |
| Date: | 2023–10–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:w20220270&r=cis |
| By: | Simola, Heli |
| Abstract: | We examine recent changes in the structure of Chinese manufacturing value chains using a standard input-output framework. Our results suggest that the previous increasing trend in the share of domestic value added in Chinese value chains stalled during our observation period (2018-2022). We also note a shift in the geographic structure of foreign value added embodied in Chinese value chains. These changes seem to be mainly associated with trade policy measures implemented by China and other countries. China's share has increased in the foreign value added embodied in manufacturing value chains of the US, EU and Russia. |
| Keywords: | value-added trade, global value chains, fragmentation, input-output, China |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:bofitb:142023&r=cis |
| By: | Tadjiev, Abdusame; Kurbanov, Zafar; Djanibekov, Nodir; Govind, Ajit; Akramkhanov, Akmal |
| Abstract: | The spread of information and communications technology (ICT) in Central Asia has reached a point where most farmers use smartphones with mobile internet access, providing an opportunity for a cost-effective and timely access to agricultural information and extension services. When extension service provision is poor and does not reflect farmers' immediate needs, farmers often seek other sources of information, such as exchanging knowledge with their peers via social media groups in instant messaging applications (apps). Using the findings of a farm-level survey conducted in 2022 in irrigated areas of Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, we study behavior and attitudes of farmers in terms of participation in smartphone-based social media groups and its impact of farm performance. We find that in the two country contexts underlying reasons for participation in social groups differ. In Kazakhstan, participation decisions are made by those who have better access to a mobile internet connection, are younger, have agriculture-related education, have a wider communication circle on phone with more than four individuals, cultivate fewer crops, have lands with low soil quality and poor irrigation water access, as well as located in remote areas. In Uzbekistan participation decisions are made by those who see the relevance of mobile internet for their farm business, have own agronomic knowledge, are open to new things, care less about the opinion of other farmers, have higher perception about freedom in crop choice, have off-farm work, as well as poor irrigation water access. These findings suggest farmers' participation in agricultural information-sharing groups (AISG) is influenced less by the type of cultivated crops or farm size, but by their institutional environment. The findings are relevant for developing private strategies and public policies to spread digital technologies among Central Asia's farmers. When introducing smartphone-based digital advisory services policymakers are recommended to start scaling up with younger and more educated farmers who rely on their own knowledge and are more open to embracing new ways of farming and interaction. Farmers' decision-making autonomy will be crucial for converting digital transformation in agriculture into farm benefits. |
| Keywords: | Extension services, self-help groups, knowledge exchange, partcipation determinants, Central Asia |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iamodp:201&r=cis |
| By: | Barinova, Vera (Баринова, Вера) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Levakov, Pavel (Леваков, Павел) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | The small and medium-sized businesses (SMEs) are the most vulnerable in times of crisis due to their scarce resources: financial, human, information etc., that is why the issues of providing support to entrepreneurs are relevant during crisis. The analysis of SMEs’ support international practices during recent economic crisis caused by COVID-19 infection might be used to form new approaches to supporting entrepreneurship in times of crises in Russia. The scientific novelty of the study lies in the analysis of foreign practices of supporting SMEs during the recent COVID-19 crisis. The purpose of this article is to summarize international experience in supporting SMEs in times of crisis. For this, the following objectives were set: the analysis of institutional, fiscal, monetary and regional measures of supporting entrepreneurs during the pandemic, as well as the analysis of the empirical works that access their effectiveness. General scientific methods are applied - generalizations, comparisons, synthesis, inductive approach. The authors come to the following conclusions: In response to the economic crisis caused by coronavirus, many countries have taken comprehensive measures to support small and medium-sized businesses; the most common are fiscal support measures, which include grants for entrepreneurs, direct investment, finance guarantees, temporary reimbursement of expenses and temporary tax holidays for entrepreneurs. According to the first empirical evidence, the most significant positive effect is caused by measures aimed at reducing the tax burden on entrepreneurs and compensating for their operating expenses. |
| Keywords: | small and medium entrepreneurship, economic crisis, international practices, COVID-19, government support, anti-crisis policy |
| JEL: | J78 O57 H25 L26 L52 H12 |
| Date: | 2023–07–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:w20220244&r=cis |
| By: | Djanibekov, Nodir; Kurbanov, Zafar; Tadjiev, Abdusame; Govind, Ajit; Akramkhanov, Akmal |
| Abstract: | The spread of information and communications technology (ICT) in Central Asia has reached a point where most farmers use smartphones with mobile internet access providing an opportunity for a low-cost and timely access to agricultural information and advisory services. When extension service is poor and does not cater to the farmers' needs, farmers seek other sources of information, such as exchanging knowledge with their peers and engaging in social media groups using instant messaging applications (apps) such as Telegram and WhatsApp. Analysis of a farm-level survey conducted in 2022 in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, suggests that farmers' participation in online groups for information exchange is influenced by the enabling environment rather than by the type of cultivated crops or farm size. The findings are relevant for developing private sector strategies and public policies to spread digital technologies among Central Asia's farmers with a holistic plan for a digital transformation. When introducing smartphone- or web-based digital technologies, policymakers are recommended to start scaling up with younger and more technologically-savvy farmers who on the one hand rely on their own knowledge but on the other hand are more open to embracing new ways of farming and interaction. Decision-making autonomy is an important factor to facilitate digital transformation in agriculture in the Central Asian context. |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iamopb:46&r=cis |
| By: | Elisa De Carvalho (Department of Social Sciences and Economics, Sapienza University of Rome) |
| Abstract: | In recent years, states have exported wars and "produced" millions of refugees and internally displaced persons. We have Ukraine with over 8 million, Syria with about 6 million, Venezuela (about 5 million), South Sudan (between 2 and 3 million), and so on. Scholarship has evidenced that different groups of migrants receive different types of support and treatment. "Immigrants" (migrants, displaced persons, refugees, and asylum seekers) are often seen as low-skilled workers from developing countries and are ethnically marked (Leinonen, 2012). On the other hand, expatriates are stereotyped as white, high-skilled workers from rich countries (Cranston, 2017). Another example is digital nomads, modern "premium migrants." These categories illustrate how global inequalities and power relations are embedded in the migration structure (Sandoz & Santi, 2019), reproducing exclusion and classification. Economic migrants, expatriates, and digital nomads are groups directly affected by the power relations inherent to the dynamics of the global economy and international politics. Through a literature review and theoretical discussion and using the example of economic migrants, expatriates, and digital nomads, this paper aims to draw attention to how colonial and historical processes have led to the construction and perception of contemporary mobilities. These epistemological constructions play a crucial role in how host societies and policymakers deal with migration, what tools they choose, how policies are implemented, and how problems are identified, understood, and addressed (as a problem or not). |
| Keywords: | colonialism; international law; expatriate; migrant; digital nomads. |
| JEL: | F54 K37 F22 J60 J15 K37 |
| Date: | 2023–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:saq:wpaper:7/23&r=cis |
| By: | Grömling, Michael; Koenen, Michelle |
| Abstract: | Die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung im Vereinigten Königreich ist gekennzeichnet von einer Vielzahl von Umbrüchen. Die Brexit-Entscheidung im Jahr 2016 und der EU-Austritt im Jahr 2020 führten zu Unsicherheiten besonders beim Außenhandel, den Investitionen und am Arbeitsmarkt. Zeitgleich sah sich die britische Wirtschaft mit der Corona-Pandemie und den Auswirkungen des Kriegs in der Ukraine konfrontiert. Die spezifischen Folgen dieser einzelnen Krisen sind aufgrund der zeitlichen Überlappungen nicht voneinander abzugrenzen. Offensichtlich treffen diese multiplen Belastungen die britische Wirtschaft jedoch härter als den Euroraum. [...] In dem vorliegenden Beitrag wird erstmals das Vereinigte Königreich in die etablierte IW-Konjunkturampel aufgenommen. Damit kann die spezifische Lage im Vereinigten Königreich auf Basis der ausgewählten und verfügbaren Indikatoren diagnostiziert und mit der Situation in den anderen erfassten Volkswirtschaften verglichen werden. Für das Vereinigte Königreich liegen neun der ansonsten verwendeten zehn Indikatoren vor. Die Aussagekraft der IW-Konjunkturampel für die britische Wirtschaft wird anhand des Verlaufs des realen Bruttoinlandsprodukts evaluiert. Außerdem wird die Entwicklung mit dem Euroraum verglichen. Es zeigt sich, dass die IW-Konjunkturampel die Richtung der Konjunktur und ihre Wendepunkte nachzeichnen kann. Damit stellt sie ein geeignetes Analysewerkzeug zur Erfassung und Beschreibung der konjunkturellen Dynamik im Vereinigten Königreich dar. |
| JEL: | E32 C82 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iwkrep:502023&r=cis |