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on Confederation of Independent States |
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Issue of 2023‒10‒30
twenty-one papers chosen by |
| By: | Häberli, Christian; Kostetsky, Bogdan |
| Abstract: | The latest report on "Repairing Broken Food Trade Routes Ukraine – Africa” covers: Ukraine’s role as a global exporter Decrease of production and exports from Ukraine Current impediments for Ukrainian agricultural exports: seaports and western border This project has received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme “Making Agricultural Trade Sustainable” (MATS) programme (https://sustainable-agri-trade.eu/). The role of MATS/WTI in this programme is to identify and explore “broken” Ukrainian - African food trade routes due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Starting with a food trade flow chart pre- and post-24 February 2022, it will assess, first, whether Ukrainian (or African) traders can again supply these products (Output 1). Failing that, whether the new EU-financed “Crisis Management” (or another) programme can possibly make up for lost Ukrainian agrifood exports (Output 2). It will also identify alternative exporters (if any) which might already have filled in agrifood demand in Africa (Output 3). Importantly, the Project also looks at the potential effect of these developments on competing farm production in Africa (Output 4). For further information and/or offer to assist in project implementation, please write to Christian Häberli (Christian.Haeberli@wti.org) or to Bogdan Kostetsky (bogdan.kostetsky@gmail.com). |
| Date: | 2023–10–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wti:papers:1411&r=cis |
| By: | Honorati, Maddalena; Ferré, Céline; Gajderowicz, Tomasz |
| Abstract: | After Germany, Poland is the EU’s second largest coal producer and consumer.1 96 percent of EU-27 hard coal production, or 54.4 million tons, is extracted in Poland (EURACOAL, 2020). In 2020, over 40 percent of the country’s total energy supply (TES) and 70 percent of its electricity generation come from coal and lignite (IEA, 2022), the highest rate in Europe. Coal in Poland also continues to employ about 88, 000 people directly in the mines, down from about 444, 000 in 1989. Europe’s commitment to stop its fossil fuel imports from Russia following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is slowing down Poland’s coal phase-out to ensure energy security in Europe, 2 but Poland remains committed to a complete coal mine closure by 2049. |
| Keywords: | Just transition; jobs; coal transition; job displacements; income support; ALMPs/active labor market policies. |
| Date: | 2023–05–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:jbsgrp:32575393&r=cis |
| By: | Suésécenko, Oleksandr; Schwarze, Reimund |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ufzdps:32023&r=cis |
| By: | Sokolov, Ilya (Соколов, Илья) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Belev, Sergey (Белев, Сергей) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Tischenko, Tatiana (Тищенко, Татьяна) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Leonov, Elisey (Леонов, Елисей) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Vekerle, Konstantin (Векерле, Константин) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Matveev, Evgeny (Матвеев, Евгений) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | The relevance of the study is due to the fact that, caused by the coronavirus pandemic of 2020, it put on the agenda issues about choosing the best methods to support businesses and citizens. However, the choice, evaluation, and practical choice of steps faces with the still existing lack of elaboration of the methodological aspects of performance evaluation. Both instruments (tax expenditures and direct expenditures) have their own advantages and implementation, their application should be directly linked to the goal. The subject The subject of the study is the list and mechanisms for the formation of tax expenditures used as part of support measures. The aim of the study is to determine how to use the methodological approaches accumulated in the scientific literature and international experience to the definition and assessment of tax expenses, as well as their accounting and management. When forming the work, such methods as reasoned-critical analysis, hypothetical-deductive method, case methods, method of analysis of generalizations and extrapolation (interpolation) of results were used. The study used data from the Federal Treasury, Rosstat and the Ministry of Finance of Russia and GTED Database. The scientific novelty of the study consists in the use of new data to analyze the structure of tax expenditures and compare the methodologies of different countries. The result of the work was a report containing: 1. Generalization of methodological approaches to the definition and evaluation of tax expenditures in scientific research 2. Analysis of international experience in accounting and management of tax expenditures 3. Analysis of the Russian practice of granting tax expenditures 4. Evaluation of the effect of the introduction of the fiscal rule on the nature of the cyclicality of fiscal policy in developed and developing countries 5. Description of opportunities for optimizing tax expenditures in the Russian Federation. The results obtained allowed us to conclude that the Russian tax system is replete with too many deviations from the standard rules, which produce a significant amount of tax expenditures by world standards. In addition, the stated goals of preferences do not fully correspond to the distribution of tax expenditures by type of tax. Part of the tax expenditure generated under indirect taxes is implicitly intended as a tool to stimulate business and investment. This creates an opaque system for distributing preferences and comparing their volume (imputed subsidy) with the result. In turn, this contributes to the strengthening of the effect of fiscal illusion. In the future, the authors plan to continue the study of the effectiveness of tax expenditures in Russia and the world |
| Keywords: | BUDGET RULES, COUNTERCYCLICAL BUDGET, SOVEREIGN FUNDS, FINANCE |
| JEL: | H7 H72 |
| Date: | 2022–11–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:w20220217&r=cis |
| By: | Levashenko, Antonina (Левашенко, Антонина) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Girich, Maria (Гирич, Мария) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | The subject of the study is the analysis of legal relations arising in connection with employment on online platforms, including the provision of minimum labor guarantees by the platforms, regulation of self-employment, taxation, social insurance, cab platforms and courier services. The relevance of the study stems from the fact that a number of countries, including Russia, are trying to develop approaches to regulate the application of labor law, taxation and social insurance to persons providing services or work through platforms. In addition, there are various aspects of the regulation of employment on platforms in certain sectors of platform work, in particular in the provision of cab services and courier delivery. The novelty of the study lies in the fact that the work solves the problem of creating in Russia an effective system of regulating the status of persons working through online platforms, employment on online platforms, taking into account the standards of international organizations. The purpose of the study is to formulate proposals for the extension of minimum labor guarantees (the right to work safety, to guaranteed wages not lower than the minimum wage, the right to protection against unemployment, the right to rest, etc.) to persons providing services or work through platforms, as well as to determine the criteria for the existence of labor relations with such persons, the possibility of recording the labor (insurance period) of self-employed working through platforms, social insurance and taxation, regulation of cab and courier platforms activities etc. The methodology of the study is based on the application of methods of logical, systematic and comparative analysis using Russian and foreign normative legal acts, analytical materials of competent authors and international organizations. As a result of the study proposals for the development of the regulation of employment on online platforms, as well as the status of persons employed on the platforms, based on the analysis of OECD standards and the legislation of member countries and partners of the Organization are formulated. In order to achieve the goal the following tasks are planned: - analysis of the standards of the OECD and other international organizations on the regulation of the status of persons working through platforms and platform employment on the application of labor law, tax law, social insurance law, on the regulation of cab and courier services, on the formation of statistics; - analysis of the experience of the OECD member states in regulating the status of persons working through platforms and platform employment; - analysis of legal problems in Russia related to the regulation of the status of platform workers and platform employment; - the formation of proposals for the development of legal regulation of the status of persons working through platforms and platform employment in Russia, including in terms of the adoption of response measures that affect the development of online employment. The results of the study were the development of proposals for Russia on the development of guarantees for persons employed on online platforms in terms of providing some rights similar to labor, the development of taxation and social insurance, statistical records of platform employment, providing guarantees in certain industries (cab services and courier services). The perspective of the study lies in the need to improve the Russian legislation in terms of protecting the rights of persons employed on platforms, which enter into a relationship with the platform, similar to labor. |
| Keywords: | employment, online platforms, labor rights, platform economy, OECD |
| Date: | 2022–11–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:w20220216&r=cis |
| By: | Vedev, Aleksey (Ведев, Алексей) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Silchuk, Anastasia (Сильчук, Анастасия) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Tuzov, Konstantin (Тузов, Константин) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Kovaleva, Marina (Ковалева, Марина) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Eremkin, Vladimir (Ерёмкин, Владимир) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | The relevance of the topic is due to the fact that the sharp changes in the sectors of the economy generated by the coronavirus pandemic have changed all existing development forecasts. At the same time, a number of new risks have emerged. In this regard, the development of a forecast for the development of economic sectors, taking into account risks and opportunities, seems to be the most important task for the Russian economy. The purpose of the study is to develop a forecast for key parameters of the socio-economic development of Russia, assess the risks of the forecast and develop tools for responding to risk situations, develop a forecast for the development of the financial sector in the Russian Federation in the medium term The subject of the study is the dynamics of the economic development of the Russian Federation in the medium term. The method or methodology of the study is based on the study of key current and retrospective data on the state of the sectors of the economy of the Russian Federation, highlighting the most important risks and building a medium-term forecast. Main research methods: economic observation, economic modeling, construction of economic hypotheses, historical analysis of economic phenomena, formalization and mathematization method, logical interpretation method, axiomatization method, analogy method As a result of the work carried out, the key components of the public sector, financial and credit markets were analyzed, and an assessment was made of the impact of the worsening external environment. Thus, the paper presents estimates of the prerequisites for the forecast and develops three possible scenarios for the development of sectors of the Russian economy. The scientific novelty of the study lies in the development of unique forecasts for the development of sectors of the Russian economy. The recommendations received as a result of the study indicate the need to develop mechanisms for responding to certain risks, taking into account the possible consequences of such an impact, presented in the forecast. |
| Keywords: | Macroeconomics, financial market, debt and equity financing, medium-term planning, fiscal system, recovery growth |
| JEL: | C53 E17 E37 E47 G17 |
| Date: | 2022–11–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:w20220211&r=cis |
| By: | Tadzhibaeva, Liana (Таджибаева, Лиана) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | The model proposed in this paper is a modification of the second-order autoregressive process with the addition of an external variable that allows taking into account the cycles of trading partners to predict output. This model has shown a significant advantage in forecasting for the long-term horizon, which confirms the importance of taking into account the economic activity of partner countries when forecasting the GDP of the Russian Federation. |
| Keywords: | GDP forecasting, business activity of trading partners, vector autoregressions, Bayesian methods |
| JEL: | E32 E37 |
| Date: | 2023–03–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:w20220233&r=cis |
| By: | Gorodnov, Artem (Городнов, Артем) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | This paper is devoted to the estimation of the Phillips curve for small open economies with the inclusion of the expected change in the real exchange rate of the ruble. The nonlinear generalized method of moments (CUE GMM) is used as an estimation method. According to the estimates obtained, the dynamics of inflation in Russia depends on external factors, in particular on expectations about changes in the terms of trade. At the same time, the role of expectations in the formation of inflation has undergone several significant changes. The first change is associated with the transition to the inflation targeting regime, the second with the outbreak of the pandemic. In addition, the rigidity of prices was also subject to changes under the influence of these factors. |
| Keywords: | Phillips curve, open economy, GMM |
| Date: | 2023–06–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:w20220223&r=cis |
| By: | Knobel, Alexander (Кнобель, Александр) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Zaytsev, Yury (Зайцев, Юрий) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Bagdasaryan, Kniaz (Багдасарян, Княз) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Baeva, Marina (Баева, Марина) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Volovik, Nadezhda (Воловик, Надежда) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Sedalishchev, Vladimir (Седалищев, Владимир) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Kazaryan, Maria (Казарян, Мария) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Kuznetsov, Dmitriy (Кузнецов, Дмитрий) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Mirakyan, Diana (Миракян, Диана) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | The relevance of the study is determined by the need to fill a gap in academic and practical research on the effects of infrastructure projects on the economic development of countries. Since the economic development of countries may depend on the indicators of the sectoral development of neighboring regions: there is a need to answer the question of the significance of different initial levels and the further pace of economic development of countries on the effectiveness of their cooperation. As one of the main factors of spatial economic development, it is proposed to consider infrastructure, the development analysis of which is proposed to be compared with the dynamics of macroeconomic indicators of countries, including international trade, the development of integration. This problem is of particular relevance for the CIS countries, where a large number of national, regional and international infrastructure projects are being implemented. Of particular interest in the study of the countries of the post-Soviet space are the so-called partially recognized republics. The situation around the Ukrainian crisis and the subsequent unprecedented sanctions against Russia adds relevance to the study of the problems of post-Soviet countries, their integration and the development of infrastructure projects. In the last ten years, there has been an increase in the activity of studying these problems, in connection with the development of the European neighborhood policy on the one hand and Eurasian integration on the other. The ambiguity of terminology in the field of infrastructure projects is noted. Among the researchers of the impact of infrastructure projects on economic development, one can single out, for example, O.Yu. Patrakeev, K.P. Glushchenko, I.V. Mitrofanov, as well as some authors studying infrastructure projects in China: S. Barizits, A. Radzyner, A. Gabuev, F. Jai, Y. Kaho, S. Chan, A. Garcia-Herrero; X. Jianwei and others. |
| Keywords: | infrastructure projects, CIS, EAEU, EU, China, post-Soviet space, partially recognized republics, integration, Eastern partnership |
| JEL: | F1 F10 F15 F21 F35 L90 C10 |
| Date: | 2022–11–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:w20220227&r=cis |
| By: | Knobel, Alexander (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Abroskin, Alexander (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Abroskina, Natalia (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Bagdasaryan, Kniaz (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Zaytsev, Yuriy (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Zyamalov, Vadim (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Sedalishchev, Vladimir (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Turuntseva, Marina (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | An inclusion of non-market goods and services which are core to the digital economy in the system of economic circulation affects the basic socio-economic indicators both in Russian and in international practice. In this connection, the goal of this study is to develop a methodological basis for accounting and measuring non-market components in the emerging digital economy of the Russian Federation. As methods and methodology of the study, we use the provisions of the 2008 SNA methodological base relating to the accounting of new objects in the system of economic turnover; methods of forming input-output tables in the SNA application system; methods of transforming the indicators of the formation and use of resources into a system of indicators of symmetric input-output tables; methods of matrix calculations in building indicators of intersectoral relations, taking into account the digitalization processes of the Russian economy; methods of accounting the influence of price and hedonistic The main are: the development of a methodological framework for accounting for nonmarket components in the formation of a system of indicators of the digital economy; the development of methodological approaches to the valuation of non-market components in measuring the economic effects of digitalization; testing the proposed methodology for accounting and measuring non-market components in the digital economy based on Russian data, and developing recommendations for using the results in the formation and implementation of economic and industrial. |
| Keywords: | information and analytical database, matrix calculations, system of national accounts, input-output tables, digital economy, non-market components |
| JEL: | O32 O33 E01 |
| Date: | 2023–03–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:w20220218&r=cis |
| By: | Strokov, Anton (Строков, Антон) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Potashnikov, Vladimir (Поташников, Владимир) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Potapova, Alexandra (Потапова, Александра) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Shishkina, Elena (Шишкина, Елена) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | The relevance of the study is determined by the need to analyze the consequences of monocultures in crop production in the regions of Russia, not only from an economic point of view, but also from an environmental one. The objective of the study is to develop ways for the sustainable development of agriculture in Russia, taking into account the possibilities for the development of diversification and the possibility of reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The subject of the presented research is the production and environmental indicators of crop production in the regions of Russia. In the course of the work, traditional scientific methods were used - descriptive, analytical, statistical and methods of economic and mathematical modeling. The sources of information were Russian and foreign scientific publications, official publications of regulatory and legal documents and statistical data of Russian state authorities, as well as foreign databases on agricultural statistics. The results of the study conclude that in the period 2011-2019, the increase in crop production took place mainly in the Central Black Earth and South-Western regions of the country, where the plowing of abandoned lands was accompanied by an increase in crop yields (intensification), which led to a relatively low carbon track per unit of output. On the contrary, in the regions of the Far East, where the plowing of the fallow has led to an increase in soybean crops (usually low-yielding), this has affected a higher carbon footprint, which cannot be considered a sustainable characteristic for further development. Thus, the scientific novelty of the study lies in the development of scientific and analytical tools for the correct identification of regional and global environmental risks in assessing the efficiency of crop production in the regions of Russia. Thus, in our study, regional risks were assessed through the concentration of crops in the region or through the diversification index (variety of cultivated crops). Global risks were assessed through the indicator of greenhouse gas emissions, which also allowed us to estimate the so-called cumulative "carbon footprint" of each region in terms of grain unit of crop production. As a result of the study, policy recommendations were developed to improve statistical reporting on the agricultural sector. It is also recommended to promote knowledge about new and old practices for introducing diversification, incl. and the classic method of growing legumes in crops, which is not being successfully implemented by all regions so far. |
| Keywords: | externalities, monoculture, diversification, greenhouse gas emissions, carbon footprint, agricultural policy |
| JEL: | Q15 Q53 C39 |
| Date: | 2023–05–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:w20220219&r=cis |
| By: | Maleva, Tatiana (Малева, Татьяна) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Tsatsura, Elena (Цацура, Елена) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | Given the significant current challenges for the socio-economic situation of the country, it is important to monitor the main indicators of the financial situation of the public, which emphasizes the relevance of this work. The goal of the study is to analyze statistical and sociological indicators of income and poverty of the population, as well as the need for additional social assistance. The objectives of the study are to analyze the dynamics of the following indicators real disposable incomes of the population, the real size of the assigned pensions, the real wages of employees of various organizations, the retail turnover, the consumer price index, the total cash income, the amount of remuneration for employees of various organizations, the structure of cash income, the usage structure of cash incomes, the share of the population with cash incomes below the poverty line. Within the framework of the sociological section, the objective of the study is to analyze the public opinion about the financial situation of the families and its change, the availability of savings, and the need for social support. The methods used include the review of Rosstat data for 2022, as well as the analysis of findings from a survey conducted by RANEPA during 2022. The object of the study is the financial situation of the population in Russia. The subject of the study is the dynamics of indicators describing income and poverty. The results of the study show that in 2022 there is a decrease in real wages, real pensions and real disposable incomes of the population, retail trade turnover, and an increase in inflation. All this indicates an increase in the risks of poverty. Polls show that about a quarter of the population only has enough money to buy food, or even less than that; almost a third of the respondents have per capita incomes of less than 1 subsistence minimum. More than a third of the respondents have practically no savings: if they happen to lose all their income streams, they will be able to cover current expenses for no more than one month. More than half of the respondents report their need for additional social payments, more than 20% talk about the need for free food packages. |
| Keywords: | income, poverty, social support, support measures, economic crisis, the needy, the poor |
| JEL: | I31 I38 |
| Date: | 2022–10–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:w20220160&r=cis |
| By: | Sugaipov, Denis (Сугаипов, Денис) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | The regions of the Russian Federation are characterized by a strong differentiation of both the level of income and the level of emissions of pollutants into the atmosphere. Meanwhile, income inequality can both contribute to an increase in pollution levels and hinder its growth. In this regard, there are risks of increasing the amount of emissions into the environment when conducting inconsistent tax or social policies. The paper presents an overview of modern research devoted to the study of the impact of inequality on environmental pollution. It turns out that high levels of income inequality can have a positive impact on environmental pollution in developed countries and rich regions and a negative impact in developing countries and poor regions. |
| Keywords: | inequality, environmental pollution, greenhouse gases, emissions, econometric models |
| Date: | 2023–03–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:w20220231&r=cis |
| By: | Myslytska, Anna; Kruk, Anton; Khomych, Yaroslav |
| Abstract: | In the globalized world, the strength of a country's currency is paramount, especially for developing and transition economies. This research endeavors to identify the key predictors for currency strength in such countries, with a spotlight on Ukraine, particularly in the aftermath of Russia's invasion. Leveraging cross-country regression analysis, the study examines the factors influencing exchange rates. The findings highlight the role of economic prosperity, import dynamics, and government spending as vital determinants of currency strength, while interest rates, exports, and inflation were found to have less significance. For policymakers, this implies a need to bolster economic growth, manage imports, and ensure prudent fiscal policies. This study not only augments the academic discourse on international finance but also offers actionable insights for economies like Ukraine striving for currency stability. |
| Keywords: | Exchange Rates, Developing Countries, Transition Economies |
| JEL: | E00 E6 F4 |
| Date: | 2023–07–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:118660&r=cis |
| By: | Polbin, Andrey; Shumilov, Andrei |
| Abstract: | Forecasting inflation is an important and challenging practical task. In particular, models with a large number of explanatory variables on relatively short samples can often overfit in-sample and, thus, forecast poorly. In this paper, we study the applicability of the model with Bayesian shrinkage of time-varying parameters based on hierarchical normal-gamma prior to forecasting inflation in Russia. Models of this type allow for possible nonlinearities in relationships between regressors and inflation and, at the same time, can deal with the problem of overfitting. Using monthly data for 2001-2022, we find that at short forecast horizons of 1-3 months Bayesian normal-gamma shrinkage TVP model with a large set of inflation predictors outperforms in forecasting accuracy, measured by mean absolute and squared errors, its linear counterpart, linear and Bayesian autoregression models without predictors, as well as naive models. At the horizon of six months, the autoregression model with Bayesian shrinkage exhibits the best forecast performance. As the forecast horizon rises (up to one year), statistical differences in the quality of forecasts of competing models of inflation in Russia decrease. |
| Keywords: | inflation; forecasting; time-varying parameter model; Bayesian shrinkage; normal-gamma prior |
| JEL: | C53 E37 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:118650&r=cis |
| By: | Izryadnova, Olga (Изряднова, Ольга) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Kovaleva, Marina (Ковалева, Марина) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | The relevance of the study is determined by the urgent need to assess the potential conditions for the consolidation of public and private resources and the capabilities of the financial sector in the implementation of large-scale investment programs. The purpose of the study is to assess the ability and readiness of key economic agents and the financial system to increase investment activity in Russia. The subject of the study is the analysis of the main trends and features of the formation of investment resources by sources of financing and forms of ownership, characteristics of financial and material potential of investment and construction activities. The analysis of investment activity trends was carried out on the basis of methods of comparative analysis of official statistical data, review of strategic planning documents and regulatory and legislative framework. As a result of the study, general and specific features of investment activity in the period 2015-2021 were identified and systematized. Overcoming the consequences of crisis phenomena in the investment sphere is considered in the paradigm of changing the role and participation of the state, business, population and financial markets in resource mobilization and financing of investment projects. The analysis of trends in the formation of the material structure of investment resources allowed us to draw conclusions about the impact of imports of investment goods and determine the potential of domestic production in solving import substitution problems as a factor of innovation and technological modernization of the economy. The evaluation of the system of anti-crisis measures to support and finance investment projects allowed us to determine the potential for mobilizing budgetary and extra-budgetary sources and the distribution of risks between the state, private business and the population. The scientific novelty of the study consists in summarizing the current data on the state of the investment sphere, the practice of regulatory and organizational and managerial impact and assessing the financial sector's capabilities in consolidating resources. The recommendations based on the results of the study are related to the need to further improve the methods of state stimulation of investment activity and the development of tools for consolidating the resources of the public and private sectors, increasing the coherence of investment programs for industrial, technological, infrastructural and social development, reducing the risks of spatial and territorial differentiation and resource provision of investment programs. |
| Keywords: | GDP, gross accumulation, investments in fixed assets, investment goods, monetary policy, investment environment, capital flows, financial sector |
| JEL: | E01 E22 E44 E52 E61 E65 |
| Date: | 2022–11–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:w20220213&r=cis |
| By: | Kazakova, Maria (Казакова, Мария) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | The progressive tax system is a tax structure in which the tax rate increases as the taxpayer's income level increases. This means that people with higher incomes pay a larger percentage of their income in taxes than people with lower incomes. The relevance of this work is determined by the fact that currently the issues of reducing inequality and increasing economic growth remain on the agenda of both developed and developing countries, and for the latter the problem of reducing poverty remains acute. In turn, tax system reforms have an impact on the macroeconomic indicators listed above and, thus, can serve as a tool for regulating inequality and poverty, as well as a way to accelerate economic growth. The main purpose of the study is to systematize the results of empirical studies examining the impact of progressive taxation reforms on inequality, poverty and economic growth in countries with different levels of development (subject of the study). A review of academic literature (source of information) devoted to the analysis of the impact of progressive tax reforms on inequality, poverty and economic growth in developed and developing economies contributes to the achievement of the stated goal (research objectives). The study was conducted using such methods as descriptive, statistical and graphical analysis, data analysis, a systematic approach, and comparative analysis. According to the results of the study, it can be concluded that 1) progressive taxation reforms can play a significant role in reducing income inequality in developed countries by redistributing income and providing financing for social programs and services that benefit low-income households; 2) the impact of such reforms on economic growth in developed countries depends on the specific structure of the tax system. the system and the broader economic context in which reforms are being implemented; 3) the described reforms can potentially become an effective tool for poverty reduction in developing countries, but their success will depend on a number of factors, including the specific conditions of each country and the quality of governance and institutions; 4) the impact of progressive tax reforms on economic growth in developing countries is a complex issue that depends on various factors, and the actual impact it can vary greatly depending on the specific circumstances of the country under consideration (scientific novelty of the work). In this regard, a promising direction for future research on this issue is a review of the main approaches to modeling the impact of progressive taxation reforms on macro indicators in developed and developing countries. The results of the review can also be used to develop tax policy measures in the Russian Federation aimed at reducing inequality and increasing economic growth in the country. |
| Keywords: | progressive taxation, tax reforms, inequality, poverty, economic growth, developed and developing countries |
| JEL: | E62 H23 H30 O40 |
| Date: | 2023–05–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:w20220222&r=cis |
| By: | Heilmann, Felix; Steitz, Janek; Müller, Simon; Sigl-Glöckner, Philippa |
| Abstract: | Europe, and Germany in particular, have quickly ramped up liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports to partially offset the loss of Russian pipeline gas deliveries. While many observers rightly applaud this historical achievement, there are also concerns that LNG decisions taken in the face of the crisis can lead to new, risky path dependencies incompatible with climate safeguards. This paper seeks to build bridges and inform more nuanced deliberations. It does so by exploring in detail relevant aspects along the LNG supply chain, guided by the principal assumption that both climate goals and energy security must be achieved. It has been informed by extensive stakeholder engagement, including a workshop bringing together different experts. We find that the development of new LNG export terminals that have not yet reached a final investment decision poses the biggest risk of violating climate targets. In contrast, European import terminals can act as back-up capacities for crisis times. For this, their use needs to be restricted during non-crisis periods. In terms of LNG market balancing, large new export projects currently under development are already set to enter operation before 2027, significantly easing currently tight markets. Additional export capacity beyond this cannot contribute to easing the current supply crunch at scale given long development times and risks ending up as stranded assets. Europe should therefore refrain from supporting new upstream projects, including through longterm contracts that enable such projects, and instead focus contracting efforts on the growing amount of uncontracted volumes from expiring legacy contracts, portfolio players, and from export projects that have already reached final investment decisions. Short- and medium-term contracts could decrease uncertainties resulting from excessive spot market exposure while limiting climate risks. There may be a role for governments to enable such contracts. Lastly, there are two no-regret strategies. In the short term, tackling methane emissions can deliver significant climate and energy security benefits. In the long term, only phasing out natural gas by transitioning to efficient renewable energy systems ultimately reconciles energy and climate security. |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:dzimps:277914&r=cis |
| By: | Winker, Justus; Müller, Lukas; Schiereck, Dirk |
| Date: | 2023–10–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dar:wpaper:140479&r=cis |
| By: | European Fiscal Board (EFB) |
| Abstract: | On 4 October 2023, the European Fiscal Board (EFB) published its seventh annual report. The report assesses the fiscal policy conducted in 2022 and updates the EFB’s proposals for a reform of the EU fiscal framework. In 2022, the EU economy continued to recover from the Covid pandemic despite the energy crisis sparked by Russia’s war of aggression in Ukraine. Real GDP grew by 3.5% on average in both the euro area and the EU while surging energy prices pushed inflation to record highs. Fiscal positions improved significantly thanks to the pashing out of Covid support measures and revenue windfalls linked to much higher-than-expected inflation. However, EU Member States missed the opportunity to make progress towards safer fiscal positions as (i) government expenditure net of temporary measures continued to outpace sustainable rates; and (ii) new energy support measures were largely untargeted. Professor Niels Thygesen, Chair of the Board, noted that “the fiscal surveillance regime did not do enough to guide EU countries towards a more appropriate fiscal policy. The Commission continued to follow an extensive interpretation of the severe economic downturn clause, de facto suspending the EU rules, although the conditions for applying the clause were no longer met”. The EFB supports the main thrust of the Commission’s reform proposal with two reservations: (i) the reform does not envisage joint elements to supply strategic EU public goods; and (ii) the intent to merge fiscal and structural surveillance can weaken public finances in the medium and long term. The EFB also notes that the ongoing debate among Member States in the Council comes with the risk of adding too many quantitative benchmarks and safeguards for annual deficit and debt reduction. Finally, the EFB believes that a reformed EU framework would benefit from stronger elements of independent advice at both the national and the central level. |
| Date: | 2023–10–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aon:annual:2023&r=cis |
| By: | Heilmann, Felix; Steitz, Janek; Müller, Simon; Sigl-Glöckner, Philippa |
| Abstract: | Importe von Flüssigerdgas (LNG) haben es Europa ermöglicht, den weitgehenden Ausfall russischer Gaslieferungen teilweise zu kompensieren. Dies war für die Sicherung der Energieversorgung zentral. Es besteht hierbei jedoch auch ein Risiko neuer Pfadabhängigkeiten, die der notwendigen Transformation zur Klimaneutralität entgegenstehen. Ziel dieses Hintergrundpapiers ist es, in diesem Spannungsfeld zwischen Energiesicherheit und Klimaschutz Brücken für differenzierte Lösungsansätze zu bauen. Hierfür betrachten wir relevante Aspekte entlang der gesamten LNG-Versorgungskette, unter der Prämisse, dass die Einhaltung der Klimaziele und Energiesicherheit jederzeit gewährleistet sein müssen. Das Papier basiert auf Gesprächen und einem Workshop mit Stakeholder:innen aus dem gesamten Debattenspektrum. Insgesamt birgt der Bau neuer LNG-Export-Terminals die größten Risiken für den Klimaschutz. Import-Terminals können als Reserve für Krisenzeiten dienen, wenn ihre Nutzung in Nichtkrisenzeiten eingeschränkt wird. Die globale LNG-Versorgungssituation wird sich auch ohne Investitionen in zusätzliche Exportterminals stark entspannen: Durch sich bereits jetzt im Bau befindliche Projekte wird sich das globale Angebot bis 2027 um rund ein Drittel erhöhen. Zusätzliche Exportkapazitäten können angesichts langer Entwicklungszeiten keinen relevanten Beitrag zur Entschärfung der aktuellen Versorgungskrise leisten und laufen Gefahr, als stranded assets zu enden. Europäische Entscheidungen sollten daher keine neuen Exportprojekte unterstützen. Dies gilt auch für die Ermöglichung durch langfristige Lieferverträge. Stattdessen sollten sich europäische Akteur:innen auf die wachsende Menge nicht vertraglich gebundener Volumina konzentrieren, die aus auslaufenden Altverträgen, von Portfoliounternehmen und aus bereits im Bau befindlichen neuen Exportprojekten zur Verfügung stehen. Kurz- und mittelfristige Verträge können Unsicherheiten aus einer zu starken Exposition gegenüber dem Spotmarkt reduzieren und gleichzeitig Klimarisiken begrenzen. Regierungen können zur Umsetzung solcher Verträge beitragen. |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:dzimps:277909&r=cis |