nep-cis New Economics Papers
on Confederation of Independent States
Issue of 2023‒10‒16
27 papers chosen by

  1. Russia-Ukraine war and G7 debt markets: Evidence from public sentiment towards economic sanctions during the conflict By Zunaidah Sulong; Mohammad Abdullah; Emmanuel J. A. Abakah; David Adeabah; Simplice Asongu
  2. Rekordzuwanderung nicht nur aufgrund der Flucht aus der Ukraine: Eine Betrachtung der im Jahr 2022 bedeutendsten Wanderungsbewegungen By Geis-Thöne, Wido
  3. Why did Russian economy not collapse under sanctions: Pre-war evidence By Egorov, Konstantin
  4. Navigating Complexities: The Eu's Perceptions Of China's Role In The Ukrainian Conflict And Implications For The Eu-China Relationship By Dradin Romain
  5. Republic of Latvia: 2023 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Republic of Latvia By International Monetary Fund
  6. ANALYSIS ON MONETARY POLICY COORDINATION IN EURASIAN ECONOMIC UNION By Dobronravova, Elizaveta (Добронравова, Елизавета); Kolesnik, Sofiya (Колесник, София); Orekhov, Mikhail (Орехов, Михаил); Chembulatova, Mariya (Чембулатова, Мария)
  7. EFFECT OF THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC UPON DEMOGRAPHIC PROCESSES IN REGIONS OF RUSSIA By Kozlov, Vladimir (Козлов, Владимир); Mitrofanova, Ekaterina (Митрофанова, Екатерина)
  9. Sympathies for Putin within the German public: A consequence of political alienation? By Lucca Hoffeller; Nils D. Steiner
  10. CONDITIONS FOR THE FORMATION OF STABLE FORMS PUBLIC-PRIVATE PARTNERSHIP IN THE SYSTEM OF SECONDARY VOCATIONAL EDUCATION By Blinov, Vladimir (Блинов, Владимир); Satdykov, Airat (Сатдыков, Айрат); Osadcheva, Svetlana (Осадчева, Светлана); Kurteeva, Larisa (Куртеева, Лариса); Dulaeva, Zalina (Дулаева, Залина)
  11. Modern approaches to studying economic sanctions By Nesterova, Kristina (Нестерова, Кристина); Maigur, Anna (Майгур, Анна); Sugaipov, Denis (Сугаипов, Денис); Shumilov, Andrey (Шумилов, Андрей)
  12. CONSUMPTION, LEISURE, SOCIAL INTERACTIONS: THE WAY OF LIFE OF RUSSIANS IN CONDITIONS OF INSTABILITY By Loginov, Dmitry (Логинов, Дмитрий); Titov, Vladimir (Титов, Владимир); Salmina, Alla (Салмина, Алла); Eliseeva, Marina (Елисеева, Марина)
  13. Methodological aspects of taking into account non-monetary factors in measuring the level of poverty By Abroskin, Alexander (Аброскин, Александр); Abroskina, Natalia (Аброскина, Наталья)
  14. Migrant communities in Western European countries and in Russia: social demands and structural constraints By Malakhov, Vladimir (Малахов, Владимир); Simon, Mark (Симон, Марк); Letnyakov, Denis (Летняков, Денис); Motin, Alexander (Мотин, Александр); Goryashko, Sergey (Горяшко, Сергей); Dubrovskiy, Alexander (Дубровский, Александр); Karulin, Andrey (Караулин, Андрей)
  15. Serbia: European integration, energy, war in Ukraine By Vincent Joguet
  16. DEBT SUSTAINABILITY AT THE SUBNATIONAL LEVEL IN RUSSIA: THEORY, SITUATION, RECOMMENDATIONS By Klimanov, Vladimir (Климанов, Владимир); Timushev, Evgeny (Тимушев, Евгений)
  17. Haiti: Staff-Monitored Program-Press Release; and Staff Report By International Monetary Fund
  18. Risk Attitudes and Informal Employment in Ukraine By Dohmen, Thomas; Khamis, Melanie; Lehmann, Hartmut; Pignatti, Norberto
  19. Corporate credit growth determinants in Ukraine: bank lending survey data application By Anatolii Hlazunov
  20. SUBJECTIVE WELL-BEING IN ADOLESCENTS’ ASSESSMENTS By Ipatova, Anna (Ипатова, Анна); Vyrskaya, Marina (Вырская, Марина)
  21. Resilience of the Algerian wheat sector By Bahia Bouchafaa
  23. Not All Oil Types Are Alike By Jochen Güntner; Michael Irlacher; Peter Öhlinger
  24. Cross-border migration in the era of the pandemic: analysis of the impact of COVID-19 on the processes of geographical mobility By Malakhov, Vladimir (Малахов, Владимир); Simon, Mark (Симон, Марк); Letnyakov, Denis (Летняков, Денис); Motin, Alexander (Мотин, Александр); Kokoeva, Nadezhda (Кокоева, Надежда); Semenov, Igor (Семёнов, Игорь)
  25. Sparse Warcasting By Mihnea Constantinescu
  26. The Integration of Migrants in the German Labor Market: Evidence over 50 Years By Paul Berbée; Jan Stuhler
  27. Measuring the link between cyclical systemic risk and capital adequacy for Ukrainian banking sector By Alona Shmygel

  1. By: Zunaidah Sulong (Universiti Sultan Zainal Abidin, Malaysia); Mohammad Abdullah (Universiti Sultan Zainal Abidin, Malaysia); Emmanuel J. A. Abakah (University of Ghana Business School, Accra Ghana); David Adeabah (University of Ghana Business School, Accra Ghana); Simplice Asongu (Yaoundé, Cameroon)
    Abstract: War-related expectations cause changes to investors’ risks and returns preferences. In this study, we examine the implications of war and sanctions sentiment for the G7 countries’ debt markets during the Russia-Ukraine war. We use behavioral indicators across social media, news media, and internet attention to reflect the public sentiment from 1st January 2022 to 20th April 2023. We apply the quantile-on-quantile regression (QQR) and rolling window wavelet correlation (RWWC) methods. The quantile-on-quantile regression results show heterogenous impact on fixed income securities. Specifically, extreme public sentiment has a negative impact on G7 fixed income securities return. The wavelets correlation result shows dynamic correlation pattern among public sentiment and fixed income securities. There is a negative relationship between public sentiment and G7 fixed income securities. The correlation is time-varying and highly event dependent. Our additional analysis using corporate bond data indicates the robustness of our findings. Furthermore, the contagion analysis shows public sentiment significantly influence G7 fixed income securities spillover. Our findings can be of great significance while framing strategies for asset allocation, portfolio performance and risk hedging.
    Keywords: Russia-Ukraine war, economic sanctions, G7 debt, fixed income securities, quantile approaches
    Date: 2023–01
  2. By: Geis-Thöne, Wido
    Abstract: Im Jahr 2022 sind so viele Menschen nach Deutschland zugewandert wie nie zuvor in der Geschichte der Bundesrepublik. Rund 1, 46 Millionen Personen sind mehr hierher zugezogen, als das Land verlassen haben, was über ein Viertel mehr als der bisherige Höchstwert aus dem Jahr 2015 von 1, 14 Millionen ist. Ausschlaggebend hierfür war vor allem die Fluchtbewegung in Folge des russischen Angriffskriegs auf die Ukraine im Februar. Insgesamt sind von dort im Jahr 2022 per Saldo 960.000 Personen nach Deutschland gekommen. Dabei war es in ihrem Fall erstmals in der Geschichte der Bundesrepublik für aus einem Kriegsgebiet Flüchtende möglich, visumfrei nach Deutschland einzureisen, was den Zuzug weit einfacher als für Geflüchtete aus dem außereuropäischen Ausland macht. So könnte es bei einer Verbesserung der Lage in der Ukraine auch schnell zu einer vergleichsweisen starken Rückwanderung kommen. Wie sich die Aufnahme der Geflüchteten aus der Ukraine längerfristig auf die Fachkräftesicherung und die öffentlichen Haushalte auswirken wird, lässt sich aktuell noch nicht abschätzen, da ihre Integration noch ganz am Anfang steht.
    Keywords: Einwanderung, Deutschland
    JEL: F22 J15 K37
    Date: 2023
  3. By: Egorov, Konstantin
    Abstract: This Policy Letter presents two event studies based on the pre-war data that foreshadows the remarkable way in which Russian economy was able to withstand the pressure from unprecedented package of international sanctions. First, it shows that a sudden stop of one of the two domestic producers of zinc in 2018 did not lead to a slowdown in the steel industry, which heavily relied on this input. Second, it demonstrates that a huge increase in cost of fuel called mazut in 2020 had virtually no impact on firms that used it, even in the regions where it was hard to substitute it for alternative fuels. This Policy Letter argues that such stability in production can be explained by the fact that Russian economy is heavily oriented toward commodities. It is much easier to replace a commodity supplier than a supplier of manufacturing goods, and many commodity producers operate at high profit margins that allow them to continue to operate even after big increases in their costs. Thus, sanctions had a much smaller impact on Russia than they would have on an economy with larger manufacturing sector, where inputs are less substitutable and profit margins are smaller
    Keywords: Sanctions, Russian Economy, Commodities
    Date: 2023
  4. By: Dradin Romain (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: The EU-China relationship has evolved from a mere economic partnership to a multifaceted relation, with the EU perceiving China as a cooperation partner, economic competitor, and systemic rival since 2019. In 2022, the eruption of armed conflict in Ukraine prompted a significant response from the EU, including sanctions against Russia and indirect measures like capping Russian oil prices for third countries. This event triggered a shift in EU foreign policy, with China maintaining neutrality while facing assertive European demands. This article examines the EU's view of China's response to the Ukrainian conflict, analyzing China's peace principles and their potential impact on the broader EU-China relationship.
    Keywords: EU-China Relationships, Ukrainian Conflict, Discourse, EU Perception, EU Foreign Policy
    JEL: Z
    Date: 2023
  5. By: International Monetary Fund
    Abstract: Latvia is facing an inflation shock, slow growth, and geopolitical challenges, while the long-term policy concern is to sustain the income convergence process. Headline inflation has surged over the past year in Latvia, measuring 12.3 percent y/y in May, while core inflation increased to 12.4 percent y/y in May. The new government, which took office in December 2022, will also have to continue to deal with the spillovers in the Baltic region from the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the impact of sanctions imposed on Russia and Belarus, the cost-of-living crisis, energy security, and the expected slowdown in growth. To secure high long-term growth in a low-inflation environment, Latvia needs to address three structural issues: (i) low productivity, (ii) low investment, and (iii) skilled labor shortages.
    Date: 2023–09–15
  6. By: Dobronravova, Elizaveta (Добронравова, Елизавета) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Kolesnik, Sofiya (Колесник, София) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Orekhov, Mikhail (Орехов, Михаил) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Chembulatova, Mariya (Чембулатова, Мария) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration)
    Abstract: In this paper we the synchronization of monetary policy in Eurasian Economic Union. The relevance of the study arises from two points: first, independent monetary policy may be a flexible tool of economic stabilization, so is important for countries; second, fluctuations of Russian economy and global shocks affect all the economies of EAEU, so their monetary policy depends on global and Russian interest rates anyway. The purpose of this paper is to estimate the reaction of EAEU central banks to individual, regional and global shocks. For the empirical model we use monthly data on EAEU key macroeconomic indicators from 2013 to 2021, the basic methods are general method of moments, error correction models and global vector autoregressions. Our results show that the reaction of EAEU countries’ macroeconomic variables to global shocks is by large the same, and spillovers from Russian economy play the key role. We conclude that despite heterogenous production structure, level of capital mobility and financial development the key trends in monetary policy depend on Russian inflation and financial cycle. But the future results will depend on the prospect of trade and financial integration in EAEU under external restrictions. The study can be extended with detailed analysis of capital mobility in EAEU transmission by financial channels.
    Keywords: monetary policy, monetary policy independence, economic integration, Eurasian economic union, econometric analysis
    JEL: E52 E58 F02 F15 F36 C51 C32
    Date: 2022–11–10
  7. By: Kozlov, Vladimir (Козлов, Владимир) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Mitrofanova, Ekaterina (Митрофанова, Екатерина) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration)
    Abstract: The preprint considers official statistical data on fertility, migration and mortality across Russian regions in 2020-2021 and is aimed at a comparison of dynamics of these processes in the time of COVID-19 pandemic and in the preceding years. To carry out this comparison, changes of several key demographic indicators (life expectancy at birth and inputs of different age groups and causes of death into its changes; total fertility rates of children of different birth orders; indicators of migration balance) in regions of Russia in the time before and during the pandemic are considered. It is shown that regional differences in dynamics of the mortality indicators were especially large. Sources of these differences need a separate study. Changes in fertility were more uniform: the pattern with decreasing fertility of first and second children with stable fertility of 3+ children was most common across regions. For migration, a considerable decrease of number of regions with a positive migration balance was observed in 2020 and, still more, in 2021.
    Keywords: Fertility, mortality, migration, pandemic, regions of Russia
    JEL: J13
    Date: 2022–11–10
  8. By: Pavlov, Pavel (Павлов, Павел) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration)
    Abstract: The aim of the work is to test approaches to the analysis of the characteristics of local labor markets in Russia using big micro-level data. The first chapter deals with modern theoretical and empirical approaches to the study of local labor markets, the concept of market power and concentration of the labor market. The second chapter presents a model of the connection between the market power of employers and the wages of employees, and formulates the theoretical hypotheses of the study. The third chapter reveals approaches to the development of a database on local labor markets, highlights patterns that are characteristic of the Russian labor market. The fourth chapter provides an empirical analysis of the influence of the characteristics of Russian local labor markets on the level of wages of workers. The fifth chapter summarizes the results and formulates recommendations based on the results of the study.
    Keywords: local labor markets, labor demand, labor supply, concentration indicators, market power, wages, microlevel big data
    Date: 2022–11–10
  9. By: Lucca Hoffeller (Goethe-University Frankfurt, Germany); Nils D. Steiner (Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz)
    Abstract: The Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 has sparked significant interest in the attitudes of the German public towards the Putin regime. In this article, we analyze survey data from a German panel to investigate the factors influencing sympathies towards Vladimir Putin following his decision to launch a war of aggression. Our central argument revolves around the role of political alienation, encompassing a lack of trust of political institutions in Germany, alongside more diffuse elements such as low support for democracy as a regime, a sense of estrangement from public discourse, and an inclination towards conspiracy thinking. Using longitudinal analyses, we provide empirical evidence consistent with our argument that political alienation—particularly in terms of low political trust and a proclivity for conspiracy thinking—plays a crucial role in driving sympathies for Putin and his regime. Against the backdrop of mounting attempts by Russia and other autocratic powers to influence discourses in Western societies via certain societal segments, our findings shed light on why individuals living in democratic nations may develop sympathetic attitudes towards autocratic leaders from abroad.
    Date: 2023–09–27
  10. By: Blinov, Vladimir (Блинов, Владимир) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Satdykov, Airat (Сатдыков, Айрат) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Osadcheva, Svetlana (Осадчева, Светлана) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Kurteeva, Larisa (Куртеева, Лариса) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Dulaeva, Zalina (Дулаева, Залина) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration)
    Abstract: The uneven socio-economic development of the subjects of the Russian Federation has a significant impact on the modernization of secondary vocational education and vocational training. There is a significant reduction in the number of graduates in the programs of training skilled workers in vocational education and training and the flow of this contingent into the vocational training sector. The number of SPO graduates who are employed in the received specialties and professions rarely reaches fifty percent. Labor migration of vocational graduates to more developed regions is steadily increasing. The amount of funding for vocational education programs depends on regional budgets, which leads to a significant territorial differentiation of investments in the human capital of students, as well as the material and technical base of educational organizations and their personnel. Fifty percent of the output of skilled worker training programs is concentrated within the 10 most sought-after professions. A similar situation develops in the training of mid-level specialists, where half of the graduates concentrate within 16 specialties. These and many other facts indicate a significant discrepancy between the results of personnel training in regional vocational education systems to the demands of labor markets, a decrease in the quality of education in vocational education, and the need to take targeted measures to improve the effectiveness of this level of vocational education as a source of staffing for the economies of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation. The purpose of the preprint is to present the results of the analysis of the conditions for the formation of sustainable forms of public-private partnership in the system of secondary vocational education. The results of the study can be applied in the formation of secondary vocational education and training programs based on digital technologies; the creation of systems of personnel support for vocational education and training, depending on the socio-economic development of the subjects of the Russian Federation.
    Keywords: transformation of vocational education, uneven socio-economic development, staffing of vocational education
    Date: 2022–07–19
  11. By: Nesterova, Kristina (Нестерова, Кристина) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Maigur, Anna (Майгур, Анна) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Sugaipov, Denis (Сугаипов, Денис) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Shumilov, Andrey (Шумилов, Андрей) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration)
    Abstract: The Russian economy has been operating under sanctions pressure in recent years. And there are risks of further strengthening of sanctions pressure both from the restriction of financial relations with the outside world and from the restriction of trade. The paper presents an overview of modern research devoted to the study of various types of economic sanctions. Despite the fact that the introduction of economic sanctions is most often motivated by political goals, the effectiveness of this tool in achieving these goals not always high. However, the economic consequences of sanctions are almost always they turn out to be significant.
    Keywords: economic sanctions, capital outflow, gravity model, general equilibrium model
    Date: 2022–11–10
  12. By: Loginov, Dmitry (Логинов, Дмитрий) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Titov, Vladimir (Титов, Владимир) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Salmina, Alla (Салмина, Алла) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Eliseeva, Marina (Елисеева, Марина) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration)
    Abstract: The aim of the study is to identify the features of lifestyle and social practices in the spheres of consumption, leisure and social interactions, implemented by various groups of the population in conditions of instability. Informational base of the study is questionnaire surveys, held in 2021-2022, each of which was conducted based on all over Russia representative sample. The review of theoretical and conceptual developments allowed to classify main approaches to understanding of lifestyle in social sciences. The analysis of empirical data produced the opportunity to examine online consumption practices settled in the post pandemic period and specifics of consumption in conditions of new 2022 risks. Models and limitations of implementing leisure practices were studied. There were studied the specifics of social interactions system including in the context of its resource significance from the point of view of adaptational tasks.
    Date: 2022–11–10
  13. By: Abroskin, Alexander (Аброскин, Александр) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Abroskina, Natalia (Аброскина, Наталья) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration)
    Abstract: The relevance of the research is related to the need to improve the methodology for measuring the poverty level in the Russian Federation. The purpose of the research is to develop methodological approaches to inclusion of non-monetary components in the system of factors considered in the process of estimating the poverty level in the Russian Federation and measuring its dynamics. The tasks to be addressed within the framework of the study include analysis of existing methodological approaches to measuring the poverty level; identification of problematic aspects of using monetary indicators to measure the poverty level; analysis and systematization of the best practices of international measurement experience taking into account non-monetary components; development of proposals for improving the methodology for estimating the poverty level in the Russian statistics. The research was conducted as part of RANEPA’s 2021 state research assignment. During the research, methods of analysis and systematization of the latest best practices in the field of integrated measurements of the level and dynamics of the poverty level were used. The research is based on the information about the latest developments in the methodology of considering non-monetary factors in measuring poverty, documented and presented by international organizations such as UN, IMF, World Bank, OECD and EU, as well as respective developments implemented in the statistics of individual countries. The specific results of the research include: developed methodological basis for building multidimensional estimates of the poverty level, recommended approaches to taking into account nonmonetary components in measuring the poverty level and its dynamics, proposals for taking into account deprivation characteristics in constructing multidimensional estimates of the poverty level. The main conclusions of the study is that the most promising approaches to considering non-monetary factors include the development of material deprivation indicators, which can be supplemented with information on social isolation indicators. The prospects of the research and the directions of further work are related to the development of methodological basis for constructing estimates of the poverty level based on a combination of its monetary and material characteristics.
    Keywords: deprivation indicators, estimation methods, households, methodology, multidimensional indicators, non-monetary features, poverty level, social statistics
    JEL: I32
    Date: 2022–11–10
  14. By: Malakhov, Vladimir (Малахов, Владимир) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Simon, Mark (Симон, Марк) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Letnyakov, Denis (Летняков, Денис) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Motin, Alexander (Мотин, Александр) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Goryashko, Sergey (Горяшко, Сергей) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Dubrovskiy, Alexander (Дубровский, Александр) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Karulin, Andrey (Караулин, Андрей) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration)
    Abstract: The study of communities formed by migrants is crucial for understanding the political communication in industrialized countries. There are three circumstances that actualize such a study. First, in countries with a long history of immigration, institutions of public representation of migrants have been developed to ensure the participation of the latter in the political life of the host societies. Secondly, migrants can form associations at the grassroots level to find common solutions without direct interaction with government institutions. Thirdly, migrants are often involved in the social and political life of the country of origin, as they maintain contact with organizations operating in their homeland. This connection is facilitated and intensified due to various online platforms. This paper provides an overview of current research on this topic, made in Western European countries, as well as the results of our own field research conducted in several Russian cities.
    Keywords: nationality-based public organizations, public figures from a migrant environment, diaspora organizations, political communication, transnationalism
    Date: 2022–11–09
  15. By: Vincent Joguet
    Abstract: The path of economic growth and development of Serbia, a country with a modern, diversified and outward-looking economy, depends at the same time on the fundamental reforms of its energy model, developments in the global economic environment, and a hypothetical rapidintegration into the European Union (EU).Serbia’s integration into the EU, the official governing principle of the ruling party despite its ambiguous rhetoric, could be the catalyst for stronger growth. But the convergence towards EU standards poses major challenges for the Government, starting with the strengthening of electoral democracy, the judicial system and the freedom of the media, along with the normalization of relations with neighboring Kosovo.
    Keywords: Balkans occidentaux
    JEL: E
    Date: 2023–09–22
  16. By: Klimanov, Vladimir (Климанов, Владимир) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Timushev, Evgeny (Тимушев, Евгений) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration)
    Abstract: The relevance of the analysis of debt sustainability is explained by the need to preserve the state's borrowing capacity under the increasing risk of non-fulfillment of debt obligations. A decrease in the borrowing potential during the economic downturn reduces the overall potential of countercyclical fiscal policy. The purpose of the study is to develop recommendations to regional public authorities on the implementation of a balanced debt policy based on a comprehensive analysis of the implementation of debt policy in Russia and countries of the world at the subnational level and to identify the causes, opportunities and limitations of regional loans. The object of the study is the subnational units of countries of the world and their budget and debt policy. The hypothesis of the study was that intergovernmental transfers, but not debt, are the main tool for overcoming negative crisis phenomena at the regional level. According to the results obtained, budget loans, being initially an instrument of debt policy, in fact, has become a new type of intergovernmental transfers. An additional problem is that this creates increased uncertainty for fiscal policy at the regional level. Debt instruments are increasingly becoming the mechanism of intergovernmental relations that reduces the efficiency of the functioning of the budget system as a whole. The novelty of the study consists in detecting significant risks of loss of debt sustainability at the regional level of Russia, despite the low nominal size of the state debt of the regions and measures undertaken at the federal level. The presentation of the theoretical foundations and the conducted diagnostic of regional public finance system allowed us to formulate measures towards further improvement of the measures of the federal policy of regulating the debt sustainability of the regions. Research methodology: review of analytical materials, structural and substantive analysis of regulatory legal acts at the federal and regional levels of countries of the world, comparative analysis of international debt policy experience, systematization of debt policy instruments used in Russia and abroad, development of scientific and practical recommendations.
    Keywords: public debt, debt policy, countercyclical fiscal policy, intergovernmental relations, budget credit, fiscal rule
    JEL: R58 H63
    Date: 2022–11–01
  17. By: International Monetary Fund
    Abstract: This paper presents Haiti’s Staff-Monitored Program (SMP). Building on progress achieved under the previous SMP, which was satisfactorily concluded in May 2023, the new 9-month SMP should contribute to macroeconomic stability by helping Haiti sustain recent policy reforms designed to enhance economic resilience and governance. Haiti faces a challenging macroeconomic outlook amid a dire humanitarian crisis. The country has been hit hard by economic spillovers from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, including food price inflation that has triggered a hunger crisis. This global shock has been compounded by a highly volatile security situation in Haiti, which has heightened the economy’s fragility. The authorities have also recently made a formal request for an IMF Governance Diagnostic, which is a very welcome development and will help Haiti solidify the early improvements achieved during the recently concluded SMP. The diagnostics are designed to help inform governance and anti-corruption strategies, including sequencing of reforms.
    Keywords: SMP staff report; IMF governance Diagnostic; SMP policy; management of the International Monetary Fund; transparency policy; food price inflation; Budget planning and preparation; Energy subsidies; Global
    Date: 2023–08–30
  18. By: Dohmen, Thomas (University of Bonn and IZA); Khamis, Melanie (Wesleyan University); Lehmann, Hartmut (Leibniz Institute for East and Southeast European Studies (IOS)); Pignatti, Norberto (ISET, Tbilisi State University)
    Abstract: Using data from the four waves of the Ukrainian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey - ULMS (2003, 2004, 2007 and 2012), we analyze whether workers with a higher willingness to take risks are more likely to select into informal employment contracts. The data permit us to distinguish between five employment states: formal and informal self-employment, formal salaried employment, voluntary informal salaried employment, and involuntary informal salaried employment. The empirical evidence reveals risk attitudes as a strong causal determinant of the incidence of all types of informal employment but involuntary informal salaried employment. We also provide evidence that our results are not driven by reverse causality: risk attitudes impact on the choice of employment state whilst this latter does not influence risk attitudes. Linking risk attitudes with selection into employment states, we also can establish that along the formal-informal divide the Ukrainian labor market is predominantly segmented for salaried workers whilst it is integrated for the self-employed.
    Keywords: risk attitudes, informal employment, labor market segmentation, Ukraine
    JEL: D91 J42 J46 P23
    Date: 2023–09
  19. By: Anatolii Hlazunov (National Bank of Ukraine)
    Abstract: This study investigates the determinants of corporate lending in Ukraine with a focus on distinguishing between supply and demand factors. I use a two-step process to build a credit standards index (CSI) based on disaggregated data from the Ukrainian bank lending survey (BLS). This paper describes factors that are significant for corporate lending development in Ukraine. It contributes to the existing literature by developing a measure of corporate loan supply and analyzing its ability to explain corporate credit growth in Ukraine by using bank-level BLS data. First, I employ a panel ordered logit model to transform categorical data into a continuous index that measures the likelihood of credit standards tightening. Second, I examine how this index affects new corporate lending in both national and foreign currencies. I find that the credit standard index is influenced by exchange rate movements (with depreciations leading to tighter standards), bank liquidity, and bank competition. I also demonstrate that the CSI has a negative impact on corporate loans in national currency, with a more pronounced effect for smaller banks
    Keywords: Supply and demand of corporate lending; bank lending survey data
    JEL: G22 E44 C33
    Date: 2023–09–14
  20. By: Ipatova, Anna (Ипатова, Анна) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Vyrskaya, Marina (Вырская, Марина) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration)
    Abstract: The paper is based on the results of the research work «Methodology for conducting an administrative survey on issues of child well-being», accomplished by the team of the Field Research Center of the Institute for Social Analysis and Forecasting (RANEPA) in 2021-2022. One of the most important criteria for the country's social development is the welfare of children. In order to make the concept of «child well-being» more definite, it is necessary to reach agreement between the experts’ community, the state and its society in determining the quality of life, and to develop social research tools that allow measuring the social well-being of children. The purpose of the study is to develop and test a survey toolkit to measure the social well-being of children. The objectives of the study are to form a questionnaire that allows a complex survey of children and parents and to conduct an administrative survey in the selected regions and in Russia as a whole, as well as in the context of various social groups of children living in two-parent, single-parent, foster families and childcare institutions. Methods used include online survey, administrative survey. The object of the research is families with children. The subject of the study is the mechanism for measuring a happy childhood based on six domains: education, health, financial situation, safety, social relations, and self-fulfillment. The results of this research work can be used in (1) formulating recommendations for improving the state policy in the field of child protection and education; (2) developing recommendations for the ongoing national program of systemic support and improving the quality of life of families with children, and 3) developing recommendations to the executive authorities, taking into account the needs of children, to determine the main directions and activities of family policy.
    Keywords: social research methodology, childhood, subjective well-being, health and safety, education, relationships, financial situation, self-fulfillment
    JEL: I31 J13 J15
    Date: 2022–11–05
  21. By: Bahia Bouchafaa (National Polytechnic School Algiers)
    Abstract: Algeria has experienced these last three years, two shocks that are COVID-19 Russian-Ukrainian conflict , and this affected wheat availability and accessibility ; which revealed the vulnerability of the wheat sector in Algeria to shocks. This article aims to clarify the situation of Algerian wheat sector through measurement of its resilience to shocks in order to find solutions in case of fragility. Our study shown that Algerian wheat sector is vulnerable to shocks. Solution is to try to improve production.
    Keywords: Resilience Shock Supply Value chain Wheat sector. JEL Classification Codes: H40 Q18 R00. Bahia BOUCHFAA, Resilience, Shock, Supply, Value chain, Wheat sector. JEL Classification Codes: H40, Q18, R00. Bahia BOUCHFAA
    Date: 2023–06–04
  22. By: Kazakova, Maria (Казакова, Мария) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration)
    Abstract: The development of e-commerce in the context of digitalization of the economy contributes to the introduction and expansion of opportunities for the use of new macro- and microeconomic indicators based on big data to study inflationary processes. The relevance of this work is determined by the fact that due to their availability and high frequency online prices of multi-channel retailers can be a more representative source of information for measuring and forecasting inflation levels than traditional data. Price indices based on online data made it possible to track price dynamics during the COVID-19 pandemic in real time. The main purpose of the study is to systematize the results of empirical work on the use of online trading data to analyze the features of inflationary processes (subject of the study). In addition, the work is aimed at exploring the possibilities of using online data and online price indices to predict offline prices. The achievement of the stated goal is facilitated by a review of academic literature devoted to the use of online price data for constructing high-frequency online indicators, measuring and forecasting the inflation rate, analyzing price dynamics in the online segment and comparing the rigidity of online prices and prices in traditional retail (tasks of research). The study was conducted using relevant academic literature and as the major source of information and methods such as descriptive, statistical, graphical analysis, a systematic approach, and comparative analysis. Based on the results of the study of the empirical experience of using online price data, it can be concluded that at present, online trade data are intensively used by foreign statistical agencies to build high-frequency price indices and can serve as a representative source of information about the level of inflation. Nevertheless, the review revealed that the official CPI was not replicated completely in any of the existing studies due to the high complexity of data collection and maintaining the database in working order (scientific novelty of the work). In this regard, the prospects for further research of the problem are presented in the maximum possible elimination of this shortcoming based on the previous world experience in the use of online price data and highfrequency online indicators. The results of the review can be used in the interests of the monetary authorities of the Russian Federation to build forecast models of inflation, considering high-frequency online data on prices.
    Keywords: inflation, e-commerce, inflation factors, inflation models, digitalization, consumer price index, online data, online price index, data parsing
    JEL: E17 E31 E52 C81
    Date: 2022–11–10
  23. By: Jochen Güntner; Michael Irlacher; Peter Öhlinger
    Abstract: Motivated by the European Union’s debate on sanctioning crude oil imports from Russia, we estimate the elasticity of substitution between different crude oil types. Using European data on country-level crude oil imports by field of origin, we argue that crude oil is not a homogenous good and that the relevant substitutability for analyzing the impact of trade sanctions must account for the quality of different oil types in terms of their API gravity and sulfur content. Our results suggest that, by neglecting these differences in quality, standard estimates significantly underestimate the production disruptions in crude oil refining resulting from sanctions.
    Keywords: crude oil trade, elasticity of substitution, refinery economics, sanctions
    JEL: F14 F51 L71 Q37 Q41
    Date: 2023
  24. By: Malakhov, Vladimir (Малахов, Владимир) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Simon, Mark (Симон, Марк) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Letnyakov, Denis (Летняков, Денис) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Motin, Alexander (Мотин, Александр) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Kokoeva, Nadezhda (Кокоева, Надежда) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Semenov, Igor (Семёнов, Игорь) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration)
    Abstract: The COVID-19 pandemic has brought about dramatic changes in all areas of public life, both at the country and global levels. In a situation of disorientation in which national governments found themselves in the spring of 2020, unprecedented measures were taken to close state borders, which led to a cessation or a sharp reduction in migration inflows. However, it soon became clear that the dependence of a number of sectors of the economy on migrant labor is so significant that it requires a significant mitigation/removal of the imposed restrictions. Thus, management structures are facing a serious challenge, namely the need to choose a course in migration policy that reflects a reasonable balance between the imperatives of socio-economic development and the imperatives of security in the health sector.
    Keywords: geographical mobility, social mobility, international migration, pandemic, economic recession, sustainable development, human capital
    Date: 2022–11–09
  25. By: Mihnea Constantinescu (National Bank of Ukraine and University of Amsterdam)
    Abstract: Forecasting economic activity during an invasion is a nontrivial exercise. The lack of timely statistical data and the expected nonlinear effect of military action challenge the use of established nowcasting and shortterm forecasting methodologies. In a recent study (Constantinescu (2023b)), I explore the use of Partial Least Squares (PLS) augmented with an additional variable selection step to nowcast quarterly Ukrainian GDP using Google search data. Model outputs are benchmarked against both static and Dynamic Factor Models. Preliminary results outline the usefulness of PLS in capturing the effects of large shocks in a setting rich in data, but poor in statistics.
    Keywords: Nowcasting; quarterly GDP; Google Trends; Machine Learning; Partial Least Squares; Sparsity; Markov Blanket
    JEL: C38 C53 E32 E37
    Date: 2023–09–14
  26. By: Paul Berbée; Jan Stuhler
    Abstract: Germany has become the second-most important destination for migrants worldwide. Using all waves from the microcensus, we study their labor market integration over the last 50 years and highlight differences to the US case. Although the employment gaps between immigrant and native men decline after arrival, they remain large for most cohorts; the average gap after one decade is 10 pp. Conversely, income gaps tend to widen post-arrival. Compositional differences explain how those gaps vary across groups, and why they worsened over time; after accounting for composition, integration outcomes show no systematic trend. Still, economic conditions do matter, and employment collapsed in some cohorts after structural shocks hit the German labor market in the early 1990s. Lastly, we examine the integration of recent arrivals during the European refugee “crisis” and the Russo-Ukrainian war.
    Keywords: immigration, labor market integration, long-run trends
    JEL: J11 J61 J68
    Date: 2023
  27. By: Alona Shmygel (National Bank of Ukraine)
    Abstract: In this paper we investigate the impact of cyclical systemic risk on future bank profitability for a large representative panel of Ukrainian banks between 2001 and 2023. Our framework relies on two general methods. The first method is based on linear local projections which allows us to study the estimated negative impact of cyclical systemic risk on bank profitability. The second method is based on the original IMF's Growth-at-Risk approach, utilizing quantile local projections to assess the impact of cyclical systemic risk on the tails of the future bank-level profitability distribution. Additionally, we enhance the macroprudential toolkit with a novel approach to calibrating the countercyclical capital buffer (CCyB). Furthermore, we develop the "Bank Capital-at-Risk" and "Share of vulnerable banks" indicators. These indicators are valuable tools for monitoring the build-up of systemic risk in the banking sector.
    Keywords: Systemic risk; Linear projections; Quantile regressions; Bank capital; Macroprudential policy
    JEL: E58 G21 G32
    Date: 2023–09–28

General information on the NEP project can be found at For comments please write to the director of NEP, Marco Novarese at <>. Put “NEP” in the subject, otherwise your mail may be rejected.
NEP’s infrastructure is sponsored by the School of Economics and Finance of Massey University in New Zealand.