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on Confederation of Independent States |
| By: | Christopher A. Hartwell; Paul M. Vaaler |
| Abstract: | Research on politically motivated unrest and sovereign risk overlooks whether and how unrest location matters for sovereign risk in geographically extensive states. Intuitively, political violence in the capital or nearby would seem to directly threaten the state's ability to pay its debts. However, it is possible that the effect on a government could be more pronounced the farther away the violence is, connected to the longer-term costs of suppressing rebellion. We use Tsarist Russia to assess these differences in risk effects when unrest occurs in Russian homeland territories versus more remote imperial territories. Our analysis of unrest events across the Russian imperium from 1820 to 1914 suggests that unrest increases risk more in imperial territories. Echoing current events, we find that unrest in Ukraine increases risk most. The price of empire included higher costs in projecting force to repress unrest and retain the confidence of the foreign investors financing those costs. |
| Date: | 2023–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2309.06885&r=cis |
| By: | Jonas M. Bruhin; Rolf Scheufele; Yannic Stucki |
| Abstract: | We quantify the economic impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on Germany, the United Kingdom, France, Italy and Switzerland using data on historical geopolitical events. Applying a structural VAR approach based on sign and narrative sign restrictions, we find that the war has exerted a notable drag on real activity and has pushed inflation up considerably. For example, a counterfactual exercise suggests that in Germany, GDP would have been 0.7 percent higher and the CPI 0.4 percent lower in 2022Q4 if Russia had neither attacked nor threatened Ukraine. The negative consequences of the war are likely to be far greater in the medium-to-long term, especially with regard to the real economy. |
| Keywords: | Geopolitical risk, structural VAR, narrative sign restriction, war in Ukraine, Russia, Europe |
| JEL: | C1 E32 H56 |
| Date: | 2023–08–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:snb:snbwpa:2023-04&r=cis |
| By: | Wilson, William W.; Bullock, David W.; Lakkakula, Prithviraj |
| Abstract: | The Russian invasion of Ukraine disrupted the grain flows from that region and worldwide. These changes are critical due to the war’s influence on logistical costs, routes and capacities. As a result of the invasion, Ukraine has evolved from having some of the lowest logistical costs in the world to having the highest logistical cost. Logistics are critical for international competitiveness in commodities, and due to the invasion, these functions have been severely affected. Essential features for a logistical competition include internal logistical functions and costs, quality, port capacity and ocean shipping costs, each compounded by seasonal demands. This paper’s purpose is to analyze the effects of the Russian invasion on the logistical functions and the costs for corn exports from Ukraine and its competitors using an optimized Monte Carlo simulation model. The findings indicate that before the invasion, Ukraine had logistical advantages for shipments to the European Union (EU) and was highly competitive in Indonesia and China; the United States had a logistical cost advantage over Ukraine to serve China, South Korea (from the U.S. Gulf) and Japan (from the Pacific Northwest (PNW)). The changes due to the invasion are substantial. Most important is the radical increase in shipping costs from Ukraine, reduced port capacity and export supplies. However, concurrent with the invasion were changes in some critical trade and marketing policies, thus influencing the international competition for corn. |
| Keywords: | Crop Production/Industries, International Development, International Relations/Trade |
| Date: | 2023–09–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:nddaae:338529&r=cis |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | The strong post-pandemic recovery led to demand driven inflationary pressures. Supply side bottlenecks and large increases in commodity prices after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine compounded these pressures and resulted in high and persistent inflation. The negative impact on disposable income, higher interest rates and weaker external demand have led to a deterioration of economic activity. If high inflation becomes entrenched, it will erode competitiveness and slow the successful convergence process. The financial system has ample liquidity and capital buffers to address the weakening economic cycle. Higher interest rates have boosted banks’ profitability, but they also bring significant risks. |
| Date: | 2023–09–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2023/316&r=cis |
| By: | Lauri, Vesala |
| Abstract: | This policy brief examines regional economic development in Russia since the brutal invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. We focus on the logistics, construction, and industrial sectors as they are closely related to the structural changes in Russia's economy due to the war and sanctions. We examine available regional-level statistics concerning these sectors and form hypotheses for the regional variation observed. We also utilize official Russian publications and news items. We find that the shift in Russia's trade flows and sanctions related to trade logistics have had a limited effect on rerouting trade. This seems largely due to the constraints of existing infrastructure, logistical bottlenecks, and the robustness of Russian oil export volumes. Barring a few regions, infrastructure development related to the reorientation of the economy has no noticeable impact on construction. Construction growth in regions bordering Ukraine is driven by war-related construction. Militaryindustrial production seems to be the national driver for most fast-growing industrial sectors. Regional-level data reflects this high growth in many traditional military-industrial hubs. |
| Keywords: | Russia, regional economic development, logistics, trade, infrastructure, construction, industry, military industry, Ukraine, Russia-Ukraine war |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:bofitb:132023&r=cis |
| By: | David Robinson; Angel Arcos-Vargas; Micheael Tennican; Fernando N\'u\~nez |
| Abstract: | This paper offers an independent assessment of certain economic effects of the Iberian Exception (IE) which was introduced in June 2022 by the Spanish and Portuguese governments. Their stated aim was to reduce wholesale spot electricity prices (which were rising alarmingly due to tight international gas markets related to Russia s invasion of Ukraine) and thereby reduce retail electricity prices for consumers whose prices were linked to that wholesale market. Another aim was to reduce Spanish inflation, which was linked to a regulated electricity retail price indexed to the wholesale spot market. Using hourly data on the wholesale electricity market for the first 100 days of the IE, the authors question the Spanish Governments estimate of the beneficial effects of the measure for affected consumers, which included over 10 million small consumers as well as many large ones. They argue that the estimated effect of the IE on retail prices depends on the assumed counterfactual. Although counterfactuals are always difficult to construct, the government s counterfactual ignores demand elasticity, and this inflates their estimate of immediate consumer benefits. Alternative counterfactuals that include demand elasticity reduce the estimated benefits for consumers and may even lead to the conclusion that the latter would have paid less had the IE not been introduced. The authors identify several other potential short and long-term effects of the IE that deserve further study, including increased margins for fossil fired generators, reduced margins for decarbonized inframarginal plant, heightened regulatory risk for investors, weakened incentives for efficient consumption, higher carbon emissions and gas prices and ultimately higher costs for consumers. |
| Date: | 2023–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2309.02608&r=cis |
| By: | Vasily Astrov (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Chiara Castelli (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Javier Flórez Mendoza (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Oliver Reiter (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Shahab Sharfaei |
| Abstract: | NEW Including Up-to-date Forecasts and Forecast Revisions of the Main Economic Indicators for CESEE for 2023-2025 Chart of the Month Very few firms have left Russia since its invasion of Ukraine by Vasily Astrov Opinion Corner Can Bitcoin become the next world currency? by Shahab Sharfaei A decade and a half has passed since Bitcoin burst onto the scene. The hopes of the early adopters were that it would be the next world currency – a hope that remains unfulfilled. Fifteen years and a host of scandals and financial bubbles later, the question remains can Bitcoin deliver on its initial promise? Revisiting the benefits of EU membership the case for the Western Balkans and Moldova by Javier Flórez Mendoza and Oliver Reiter Here we re-evaluate the possible economic effects that would arise from the Western Balkan countries plus Moldova joining the EU. Applying a standard model for trade policy analysis, we find increases in real GDP ranging from 0.2% (for Montenegro) to 1.3% (for North Macedonia). Estimated positive changes in exports range from 13% (for Albania) to 18% (for Montenegro). The EU countries would also see positive effects, though of a much smaller magnitude. The role of state aid as a driver of export performance in the EU by Chiara Castelli In response to the crises of 2007 and 2010, state aid to businesses in the EU was increased substantially, with an average of 16% of it directed towards R&D and innovation. We find evidence of public intervention having had a significant influence in promoting digital competitiveness, especially in terms of digital capital exports and particularly for relatively R&D-intensive industries. Our analysis shows that public intervention should favour a broader approach to supporting digital exports, as more specific state aid that targets R&D and innovation requires prior technological knowledge, if it is to be successful. Forecasts of main economic indicators for Central, East and Southeast Europe for 2023-2025 From now on, instead of charts with monthly and quarterly statistics, every second month we aim to publish up-to-date forecasts and forecast revisions of the main economic indicators for CESEE countries real GDP growth, consumer price index (CPI), unemployment rate, current account and fiscal balance. In addition to the existing January and July forecast updates, the additional new updates are scheduled for the March, May, October and December Monthly Report issues. |
| Keywords: | war in Ukraine, foreign ownership, Bitcoin, cryptocurrencies, fiat currency, EU accession, GEPPML modelling, state aid, export performance, R&D and innovation, digital exports |
| Date: | 2023–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wii:mpaper:mr:2023-03&r=cis |
| By: | Narymen Benrachou (State University of Management, Moscow, Russia) |
| Abstract: | In this study, the organization of university space in the system of regional space in methodology of analysis and evaluation of the effectiveness of the Volga Federal District At the moment, issues of prospects and opportunities for the transition of the Russian economic system into the so-called fairway of the fourth industrial revolution, conventionally called Russia 4.0, are gaining momentum to a greater extent. This type of economic development of mankind, based on which there is an almost complete absolutization of the process of cooperation of human, biological and digital technologies. Suffice it to note that according to the estimates of a number of leading experts and expert agencies, it is expected that by the end of 2035 the number of robotic and automated jobs will reach about 95%, about half of the jobs that exist today will be unclaimed. |
| Keywords: | higher education development industry 4.0 the methodology JEL Classification Codes: A29 I23 L8, higher education, development, industry 4.0, the methodology JEL Classification Codes: A29, I23, L8 |
| Date: | 2023–06–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04183396&r=cis |
| By: | Torfs, Wouter |
| Abstract: | This working paper elaborates on the most recent update of the EIF SME Access to Finance (ESAF) Index, a composite indicator used to monitor the state of SME external financing markets in the EU. The current update, using data for 2022, constitutes the tenth iteration of this exercise, resulting in a 10-year long time series for each of the 27 EU countries. The latest data captures the first impact of the rise in inflationary pressures and sustained geopolitical uncertainty arising from the war in Ukraine on European SMEs' access to finance. For an extensive overview of the current state of SME financing markets the reader is referred to the EIF's European Small Business Finance Outlook (Kraemer-Eis et al., 2023). The EIF Working Papers are designed to make available to a wider readership selected topics and studies in relation to EIF's business. The Working Papers are edited by EIF's Research & Market Analysis and are typically authored or co-authored by EIF staff or are written in cooperation with EIF. |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:eifwps:202392&r=cis |
| By: | Разов, Павел Викторович |
| Abstract: | В данной статье рассматривается вопрос, связанный с социологическим анализом факторов формирования монетарной культуры населения России. Автором были изучены основные элементы такого явления, как монетарная культура, рассмотрено текущее состояние монетарной культуры в российском обществе. В данной статье также изучено понятие монетарного поведения, которое находится в особой взаимосвязи с таким явлением, как монетарная культура. Важное место в данной работе отведено анализу факторов, влияющих на формирование монетарной культуры населения России. Среди них автором были выделены 2 большие группы: объективные и субъективные факторы. В данной статье рассмотрены обе группы, при этом выявлено, что факторы не могут быть бстрагированы друг от друга, а находятся в состоянии взаимозависимости. Кроме того, автором были определена взаимосвязь между факторами формирования монетарной культуры и ключевыми ценностями, которые можно выделить в монетарной культуре российского населения. В заключительной части статьи автором предложены реко-мендации по повышению монетарной культуры российского населения, а также по дальнейшему изучению факторов, влияющих на формирование монетарной культуры населения России. |
| Date: | 2022–09–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:gbuph&r=cis |
| By: | Nazrullaeva, Eugenia (School of Public Policy, London School of Economics and Political Science; CAGE, University of Warwick); Harrison, Mark (Department of Economics and CAGE, University of Warwick; CEPR) |
| Abstract: | Who is targeted by preventive repression and why? In the Soviet Union, the KGB applied a form of low-intensity preventive policing, called profilaktika. Citizens found to be engaging in politically and socially disruptive misdemeanors were invited to discuss their behavior and to receive a warning. Using novel data from Lithuania, a former Soviet republic, in the late 1950s and the 1970s, we study the profile and behaviors of the citizens who became subjects of interest to the KGB. We use topic modeling to investigate the operational focuses of profilaktika. We find that profilaktika began as a way of managing specific threats or “known risks†that arose from the experience of postwar Sovietization. The proportion of “unknown risks†– people without risk factors in their background or personal records – increased by the 1970s. These people were targeted because of their anti-Soviet behaviour, which the KGB attributed to “contagious†foreign influences and the spread of harmful values. |
| Keywords: | coercion, communism, preventive repression, security, social norms, surveillance, Soviet Union JEL Classification: N44, P37 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cge:wacage:664&r=cis |
| By: | Grömling, Michael |
| Abstract: | Die deutsche Wirtschaft tritt auf der Stelle und das Land steckt seit drei Jahren in einer seiner längsten Industrieflauten. Während die Automobilindustrie im zweiten Quartal 2023 zumindest ein leichtes Plus erzielte, ging die Produktion im Maschinenbau, in der Elektroindustrie und bei der Chemie erneut zurück. Die Produktionslücke der Industrie gegenüber dem Vorkrisenniveau (Jahreswert 2019) belief sich im zweiten Quartal 2023 hartnäckig auf rund 5 Prozent. Noch höher sind die langwierigen Produktionseinbußen im Maschinenbau und der Automobilindustrie. Dagegen liegt die Produktion in der Elektroindustrie deutlich über dem Niveau von vor der Pandemie und dem Ukraine-Krieg. Die vielfältigen Gründe für die Industrieschwäche treffen die einzelnen Industriesparten unterschiedlich. Der Maschinenbau und die Automobilindustrie litten lange Zeit unter fehlenden und teuren Materialien. Dagegen führte die kriegsbedingte Energiekrise zum Einbruch der Chemieproduktion in Deutschland. Die hohen und kumulativen Kostenbelastungen schwächen die Wettbewerbsfähigkeit der deutschen Industriefirmen - und das in einer sich abschwächenden Weltwirtschaft. Gemäß der IW-Konjunkturumfrage gelten steigende Lohnkosten für vier von zehn Industrieunternehmen als Wettbewerbshandicap. Zugleich wird dies von mehr als 90 Prozent als dauerhaft eingeschätzt. Hohe Energie-, Rohstoff- und Materialkosten werden von zwei Dritteln der Industriefirmen als eine bleibende Belastung ihrer Wettbewerbsfähigkeit gesehen. Gemeinsam mit vielfältigen Regulierungslasten (Bürokratie, Umweltauflagen etc.) haben sich die Standortbedingungen für die Industrieproduktion in Deutschland insgesamt verschlechtert. |
| Keywords: | Konjunktur, Industrie, Wettbewerbsfähigkeit, Unternehmensbefragung |
| JEL: | C82 E23 E32 L60 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iwkrep:412023&r=cis |
| By: | Claude Ménard; Ivan Shabalov (Central Research Institute of Ferrous Metallurgy I.P. Bardina, Russia); Andrey Shastitko (MSU - Lomonosov Moscow State University, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | This article examines the institutional setting implemented by a fragmented industry to face a technologically and politically challenging environment. It does so through the lens of recent developments in new institutional economics building on the Williamsonian contributions about hybrid organizations and the Northian contributions about institutional layers. The resulting analytical framework throws light on the institutional design implemented by the Russian manufacturers of large diameter pipes, a strategic segment of the natural gas supply chain. Examination of this arrangement shows the key role of intermediary institutions, coined ‘meso-institutions, ' in coordinating parties that nevertheless remain competitors. However, this ‘economizing strategy, ' backed by the central government, collides with the ‘anti-monopoly' strategy that the same government intends to implement. Based on interviews and private and public data and documents, this narrative shows the impact of technology on organizational choices and the theoretical gains to be expected from differentiating institutional layers when it comes to understanding the many challenges an industry faces. |
| Keywords: | Gas industry, Organizations, Institutions, Regulation, Governance, Political interference |
| Date: | 2021–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04012224&r=cis |
| By: | Kamar, Abul; Roy, Devesh; Pradhan, Mamata; Saroj, Sunil |
| Abstract: | The Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) brings together five South Asian countries (Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Nepal, and Sri Lanka) and two Southeast Asian countries (Myanmar and Thailand). Recent events have raised global concerns on food security, including for BIMSTEC countries; these events include Russia’s withdrawal from the Black Sea Grain Initiative with Ukraine, India’s prohibition on the export of non-basmati white rice, and its 20 percent export duty on parboiled rice. This policy note spells out the likely impact of one of these events, that is, India’s restrictions on rice exports to its fellow BIMSTEC nations. Trade moves food from surplus to deficit regions and hence is crucial for maintaining a stable food supply. Historically, the global supply of cereals has been stable (Bradford et al. 2022); this implies that trade (or the lack of it) can be directly mapped onto area-specific food insecurity. At the same time, shocks leading to trade disruption can pose serious challenges, particularly for countries with high import penetration in food. |
| Keywords: | INDIA; SOUTH ASIA; ASIA; BANGLADESH; BHUTAN; INDIA; NEPAL; SRI LANKA; trade; food security; exports; rice; cereals; shocks; imports; trade barriers; Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:prnote:136875&r=cis |
| By: | Davide Cantoni; Andrew Kao; David Y. Yang; Noam Yuchtman |
| Abstract: | Citizens have long taken to the streets to demand change, expressing political views that may otherwise be suppressed. Protests have produced change at local, national, and international scales, including spectacular moments of political and social transformation. We document five new empirical patterns describing 1.2 million protest events across 218 countries between 1980 and 2020. First, autocracies and weak democracies experienced a trend break in protests during the Arab Spring. Second, protest movements also rose in importance following the Arab Spring. Third, protest movements geographically diffuse over time, spiking to their peak, before falling off. Fourth, a country’s year-to-year economic performance is not strongly correlated with protests; individual values are predictive of protest participation. Fifth, the US, China, and Russia are the most over-represented countries by their share of academic studies. We discuss each pattern’s connections to the existing literature and anticipate paths for future work. |
| JEL: | P0 |
| Date: | 2023–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:31617&r=cis |
| By: | Manuilskaya, Ksenia (Мануильская, Ксения) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Solodovnikova, Olga (Солодовникова, Ольга) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | The paper highlights the results of the research study “Partnership and romantic relationships during the pandemic and afterwards”, conducted by the team of the Field Research Center of the Institute for Social Analysis and Forecasting (RANEPA) at the beginning of 2021. The work includes a systematic review of relevant foreign literature about changing attitudes during a pandemic in various countries, characteristics of sexual behavior, and sexual satisfaction. Turned out in a situation of self-isolation, the relationships within families, married couples and between partners were subjected to a serious test. The experience of such a long stay together was unfamiliar for many people. How did this affect the couple? How did the relationship change during the period of self-isolation and quarantine? What happened after? What are the consequences of the pandemic in this area of human life? These issues require close study by experts of various disciplines – sexologists, psychologists, physicians, as well as sociologists. The research work is based on the findings of empirical studies which can be used in social and family policy, particularly for: 1) information support of executive authorities on demographic development and demographic policy affairs; 2) development of specific directions in the field of family policy. |
| Keywords: | pandemic, sexuality, sexuality studies, partnership, family, relationships, sexual relations during pandemic, demography, demographic process, sexual life satisfaction |
| JEL: | J10 J12 |
| Date: | 2021–11–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:w20220181&r=cis |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | Recent money laundering cases have exposed financial integrity risks from cross-border payments and potential impact on financial stability to the integrated Nordic-Baltic financial sector, attracted international scrutiny of anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT) supervision throughout the region, and so accelerated the momentum for reform. The purpose of the project is to conduct an analysis of cross-border money laundering (ML) threats and vulnerabilities in the Nordic-Baltic region – encompassing Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Iceland, Latvia, Lithuania, Norway, and Sweden (the Nordic-Baltic Constituency or NBC) – and issue a final report containing recommendations for mitigating the potential risks. |
| Date: | 2023–09–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2023/320&r=cis |
| By: | Miriam Bruhn (World Bank; IZA); Asli Demirgüç-Kunt (Center for Global Development); Dorothe Singer (World Bank) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on the reallocation of economic activity across firms, and whether this reallocation depends on the competition environment. The paper uses the World Bank’s Enterprise Surveys COVID-19 Follow-up Surveys for about 8, 000 firms, including both small and large firms, in 23 emerging and developing countries in Europe and Central Asia, matched with 2019 Enterprise Surveys data. It finds that during the COVID-19 crisis, smaller firms were hit harder, and economic activity was reallocated toward firms with higher pre-crisis labor productivity. Countries with a strong competition environment experienced more reallocation from less productive to more productive firms than countries with a weak competition environment. The evidence also suggests that reallocation from low- to high-productivity firms during the COVID-19 crisis was stronger compared with pre-crisis times. Finally, the analysis shows that government support measures implemented in response to the crisis may have adverse effects on competition and productivity growth since support went to less productive and larger firms, regardless of their pre-crisis innovation. |
| Keywords: | Creative destruction, productivity, competition, firms, COVID-19, government support, Europe and Central Asia (ECA) |
| JEL: | D22 D24 H81 O47 |
| Date: | 2023–03–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cgd:wpaper:633&r=cis |
| By: | Otrachshenko, Vladimir (Justus Liebig University, Giessen); Popova, Olga (Leibniz Institute for East and Southeast European Studies (IOS)); Alimukhamedova, Nargiza (CERGE-EI) |
| Abstract: | Employing novel household survey data, this paper examines how rainfall variability and mean temperature affect individual labor supply in Uzbekistan, a highly traditional lower-middle-income country in Central Asia. The findings suggest that rainfall variability induces the reallocation of labor supply: (i) out of agriculture to unemployment, (ii) from unemployment to business activities and irregular remunerated activities, and (iii) from being out of labor force to unemployment. These effects differ in rural and urban areas and by gender. In addition, active women's involvement in the labor market and household decision-making mediates the impact of climate variability on employment choices, especially in rural areas. This implies that traditional gender roles may make households in developing countries more vulnerable to adverse consequences of climate change, while women's empowerment may smooth such consequences. |
| Keywords: | rainfall variability, labor market, agriculture, employment, women's empowerment, Uzbekistan, Central Asia |
| JEL: | J16 J21 J43 P28 Q54 |
| Date: | 2023–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp16421&r=cis |