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on Confederation of Independent States |
|
Issue of 2023‒10‒02
twenty-two papers chosen by |
| By: | Minot, Nicholas; Martin, Will |
| Abstract: | After a long period of relatively stable prices on world markets, the prices of key food staples began to rise from around the beginning of 2020. This period of price increases, spanning the Covid-19 pandemic and then the price shocks following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine raised serious concerns about the welfare of poor people in countries such as Ethiopia. |
| Keywords: | ETHIOPIA; EAST AFRICA; AFRICA SOUTH OF SAHARA; AFRICA; prices; markets; staple foods; Coronavirus; coronavirus disease; Coronavirinae; COVID-19; shock; poverty; Ukraine |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:gccbrf:22&r=cis |
| By: | Khondaker Golam Moazzem; Helen Mashiyat Preoty; Chowdhury Fariha |
| Abstract: | The National Budget for FY2022–23 was placed in the Parliament during June 2022. It was approved at a time when Bangladesh’s economy had been confronting a number of domestic and external challenges. The economy has yet to come out from the post-covid challenges. Owing to the Ukraine-Russia War, the disruption in the global supply chains, particularly related to the energy supply chains, has made a significant adverse impact on the domestic economy. The ongoing war has posed short to medium-term threats to the global energy market in terms of energy supply, energy price, energy sustainability and future clean energy targets. Hence, the National Budget needs to take into account the energy and power sector-related concerns in terms of fiscal measures and budgetary allocations. |
| Keywords: | Power and Energy Sector, National Budget, FY2022–23, Ukraine-Russia War, Global energy market, Energy sustainability, Clean energy, Bangladesh Economy |
| Date: | 2023–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pdb:pbrief:40&r=cis |
| By: | Di-Comite, Francesco (European Commission, DG for Internal Market, Industry, Entrepreneurship and SMEs (DG GROW)); Pasimeni, Paolo (European Commission, DG for Internal Market, Industry, Entrepreneurship and SMEs (DG GROW)) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyses the economic implications for the European Union (EU) of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and of the following developments. It illustrates the challenges faced by the European economy at the moment of the invasion and the massive, on-going adjustment since then. The paper starts with a comprehensive description of the structural exposures and dependencies of the EU, first at macroeconomic and then at product level. It then uses high-frequency customs data to track how such exposures and dependencies developed in recent months and how the economy is trying to adjust. At the moment of the invasion, the EU was highly exposed to the import of Russian commodities, notably fossil fuels and critical raw materials, but it has gradually managed to reduce this exposure in the course of 2022. We document a sizeable reduction of EU exports to Russia, due to export restrictions, but at the same time, since imports of energy fossil fuels and critical raw materials were less elastic to prices, and prices for these goods have increased, the value of EU imports from Russia has increased. This has led to the EU accumulating an additional bilateral trade deficit vis-à- vis Russia of roughly €67bn in 2022, compared with the same period in 2021. Such additional trade surplus for Russia corresponds to roughly 3.7% of its GDP and is likely to be one of the driving factors of the strengthening of its currency, the rouble. Nevertheless, in the most recent months, the EU has managed to stop the accumulation of this trade deficit, by reducing imports. The EU was dependent on Russia for a number of critical commodities, including energy products. For the majority of these key industrial inputs, imports from Russia have been falling significantly in the course of the year, signalling a reconfiguration of supply chains in favour of alternative sources. |
| Date: | 2022–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bda:wpsmep:wp2022/4&r=cis |
| By: | Kim , Yoonjung (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)); Lim, You Jin (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)) |
| Abstract: | 본 연구에서는 러시아-우크라이나 전쟁 이후 유럽의 에너지 위기 대응 정책을 살펴보고, 산업 생산과 에너지 위기 대응 정책의 관련성을 분석하였다. 러시아-우크라이나 전쟁 이후 유럽 내 에너지 위기의 배경, 에너지 가격 상승과 인플레이션의 연관성을 살펴보고, 유럽 주요국 정부가 에너지 위기의 충격을 완화하고자 집행한 다양한 정책들을 통해 정책적 함의를 도출하였다. 또한 유럽 주요국의 에너지 위기 대응 정책 도입 시점에 대한 정보를 이용하여 이러한 정책들과 산업 생산에 유의미한 관계가 있었는지 분석하였다. 지금까지 우리나라의 에너지 가격 상승은 유럽의 에너지 위기 상황에 비할 수 없지만, 취약계층을 더 면밀하게 파악하고 재정적 지원을 보다 효과적으로 실행할 수 있는 시스템을 구축하여 재정 집행의 비효율을 최소화할 수 있도록 대비해야 한다. 또한 가격 신호를 최대한 이용하면서 장기적으로는 에너지 효율화 및 수급 안정성 강화를 위해 노력해나가야 한다.(This study analyzes Europe’s policy responses after the energy crisis after the Russian-Ukrainian war and examines the impact of policy measures on industrial production. Although the mild winter of 2022 resulted in lower-than-expected energy demand, and energy prices have stabilized since the end of 2022, there is uncertainty about the severity of the winter in 2023 and the war is showing signs of prolongation. While Europe is using the energy crisis as an opportunity for the green transition, Europe is also accepting that it will continue to use fossil fuels, including liquefied natural gas (LNG), for at least the next decade and possibly even longer. The fact that Europe can no longer rely on fossil fuel supplies from Russia has significant implications for Korea, which is a net energy importer, as it may be affected by the increasing demand from Europe in the international energy market. Analyzing Europe’s policy measures on energy crisis provides important policy recommendations for potential energy price surge in South Korea due to the additional international energy demand. Chapter 2 explores the background of the energy crisis in Europe after the Russian-Ukrainian war, and explores the link between rising energy prices and inflation. We analyze the various policies implemented by the national governments of three European countries to mitigate the impact of the energy crisis, namely Germany, France, and the United Kingdom. The study demonstrates a significant increase in energy prices, providing justification for the implementation of national policy measures. We show heterogeneity across countries, including dependence on Russian energy, available fuel types, and the different institutional contexts, and further investigated the policy packages in each country. the rest omitted) |
| Keywords: | Energy crisis; Energy use; Energy subsidy; Europe; Industry production |
| Date: | 2023–09–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kiepre:2022_018&r=cis |
| By: | Popov, Vladimir; Konchakov, Roman; Didenko, Dmitry |
| Abstract: | The key question of the economic and social post-reform history of Russia (after the agrarian reform of 1861) is what exactly led to the revolutions of the early 20th century. Were these revolutions a natural result of the growth of social tensions due to the flawed “Prussian path” of the development of capitalism in agriculture (a combination of large landlords’ estates and small land ownership of the bulk of the peasants) or did Russian capitalism develop successfully on the whole, and the revolutions were by no means inevitable, but rather caused by random, transient factors (war, political mistakes of the authorities and the opposition, etc.) – brief overview of these discussions is in Nefedov and Ellman (2016). This paper aims to contribute to this discussion by analyzing the patterns and causes of social protest (peasants’ unrests, strikes at industrial enterprises, crimes against persons). We compute the index of inequality of land distribution for the Russian provinces, and find that the dynamics of social protest before the First Russian Revolution of 1905-07, from the 1890s to the early 1900s, occurred in provinces with the most uneven land distribution. These were mostly regions in the periphery of the empire (Lithuania, Poland, Belarus’, Ukraine, Novorossiya, Volga, Urals, Siberia, Far East, Caucuses, Central Asia) that were colonized in the 16th-19th centuries and did not have many serfs to begin with, and where the crown gave huge land areas to the nobility usually as a reward for service. We speculate that this could have constituted one of the unique features of Russian development – it was the only state that experienced such a rapid territorial expansion in the era of serfdom with the result of developing extremely high land distribution inequalities in the new provinces, higher than in other European countries at the same time. These unique inequalities in land distribution could help explain the greater revolutionary activity in Russia even though the income (not land) inequalities seem to have been lower than in other countries in the early 20th century and lower than in Russia today (Lindert, Nafziger, 2014). We also show that the increase in domestic violence was positively affected by illiteracy and alcohol consumption, whereas for social unrest alcohol consumption did not matter (insignificant) and literacy had either significant positive impact (increase in strikes) or was insignificant (increase in peasants’ unrest). Success rate of strikes, though, was linked positively with education (literacy rate and the average number of years of schooling) in 1895-99, but in 1900-04 the relationship was negative. In the late 19th century strikes were successful mostly in educated regions, whereas in 1900-04 less educated regions became successful in their strikes’ activity as well. |
| Keywords: | Inequality, land distribution, Russian revolutions, human capital |
| JEL: | D63 D74 I24 N13 N53 O15 O5 O52 Q15 |
| Date: | 2023–09–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:118464&r=cis |
| By: | Avdonina, Alexandra (Авдонина, Александра) (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Lanshina, Tatiana (Ланьшина, Татьяна) (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | The paper analyzes the best practices and models of MSW management abroad, defines theoretical approaches to the study of the formation and functioning of such a system in the Russian Federation. The role of stakeholders (stakeholders) in reforming the system has been determined. The analysis of economic instruments aimed at motivating stakeholders to consciously handle waste and separate collection of MSW is carried out. |
| Keywords: | solid trash, international experience |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:s21017&r=cis |
| By: | Zunaidah Sulong (Universiti Sultan Zainal Abidin, Malaysia); Mohammad Abdullah (Universiti Sultan Zainal Abidin, Malaysia); Emmanuel J. A. Abakah (University of Ghana Business School, Accra Ghana); David Adeabah (University of Ghana Business School, Accra Ghana); Simplice Asongu (Yaoundé, Cameroon) |
| Abstract: | War-related expectations cause changes to investors’ risks and returns preferences. In this study, we examine the implications of war and sanctions sentiment for the G7 countries’ debt markets during the Russia-Ukraine war. We use behavioral indicators across social media, news media, and internet attention to reflect the public sentiment from 1st January 2022 to 20th April 2023. We apply the quantile-on-quantile regression (QQR) and rolling window wavelet correlation (RWWC) methods. The quantile-on-quantile regression results show heterogenous impact on fixed income securities. Specifically, extreme public sentiment has a negative impact on G7 fixed income securities return. The wavelets correlation result shows dynamic correlation pattern among public sentiment and fixed income securities. There is a negative relationship between public sentiment and G7 fixed income securities. The correlation is time-varying and highly event dependent. Our additional analysis using corporate bond data indicates the robustness of our findings. Furthermore, the contagion analysis shows public sentiment significantly influence G7 fixed income securities spillover. Our findings can be of great significance while framing strategies for asset allocation, portfolio performance and risk hedging. |
| Keywords: | Russia-Ukraine war, economic sanctions, G7 debt, fixed income securities, quantile approaches |
| Date: | 2023–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:exs:wpaper:23/057&r=cis |
| By: | Minot, Nicholas; Martin, Will |
| Abstract: | The prices of staple grains began rising in mid-2020, reflecting higher fertilizer prices and the supply chain bottlenecks caused by the outbreak of Covid-19, and increased sharply following the Russian invasion of Ukraine in early 2022. How have these dramatic increases in world prices of cereals affected poverty in low-income countries? This brief estimates the impact of higher world grain prices on poverty in Niger. Other briefs in this series examine the impact of higher food prices on poverty in Kenya, Ethiopia, Nigeria, Burkina Faso, and Mali (see Minot and Martin, 2023a and 2023b; Martin and Minot, 2023a, 2023b, and 2023c). All six studies use a similar approach. First, we examine the effect of the rise in international cereal prices on the real price of key grains in the domestic markets of the country. Second, we estimate the impact of the changes in domestic grain prices on the real income of each household using nationally-representative survey data, taking into account the importance of the commodities in consumption and as a source of income for each household. Finally, we estimate the changes in headcount poverty (the share of people living below the poverty line) based on the changes in real income for each household in the sample. We focus on the prices of maize, wheat, and sorghum for reasons discussed below. |
| Keywords: | NIGER; WEST AFRICA; AFRICA SOUTH OF SAHARA; AFRICA; grains; staple foods; prices; fertilizers; supply chains; Coronavirus; coronavirus disease; coronavirinae; COVID-19; Ukraine; cereals; poverty; income; households |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:gccbrf:25&r=cis |
| By: | Minot, Nicholas; Martin, Will |
| Abstract: | Because of low incomes and associated large shares of expenditure on food, Mali is potentially very vulnerable to sharp increases in the prices of key grain staples such as maize and wheat. A first step in understanding the impacts of changes in the prices of these products is to examine develop ments in their prices on world markets. After a long period of relatively stable prices on world mar kets, the prices of key food staples began to rise during 2020. This period of price increases, span ning the COVID-19 pandemic and then the price shocks following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine raised serious concerns about the welfare of poor people in countries such as Mali. |
| Keywords: | MALI; WEST AFRICA; AFRICA SOUTH OF SAHARA; AFRICA; poverty; low income groups; food; prices; grains; markets; Coronavirus; coronavirus disease; coronavirinae; COVID-19; Ukraine |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:gccbrf:24&r=cis |
| By: | Amaral, Afonso (European Commission, DG for Internal Market, Industry, Entrepreneurship and SMEs (DG GROW)); Connell, William (European Commission, DG for Internal Market, Industry, Entrepreneurship and SMEs (DG GROW)); Di-Comite, Francesco (European Commission, DG for Internal Market, Industry, Entrepreneurship and SMEs (DG GROW)); Herghelegiu, Cristina (European Commission, DG for Internal Market, Industry, Entrepreneurship and SMEs (DG GROW)) |
| Abstract: | This note proposes an indicator-based mechanism in order to monitor the evolution of supply chains in the European Union (EU) and identify potential distress. Current events, such as COVID-19 or the Russian aggression against Ukraine, have highlighted the need for a better risk assessment of supply chains, particularly in strategic areas, with the ultimate goal of detecting disruptions as early as possible to avoid potential adverse effects on the economy and society. The proposed monitoring system is entitled “SCAN” (Supply Chain Alert Notification) and its main goal is to identify significant inflationary pressures and/or shortages, resulting from imbalances between demand and supply. This data-driven system could alert policy makers on possible supply chain disruptions, which can occur for specific products and sectors. The SCAN is first applied at the product level, where supply chain disruptions start to materialise. In order to be able to have targeted conclusions, we illustrate how this mechanism performs by focusing on a set of important commodities in two strategic settings – i.e. production of solar panels, commodities affected by the Russian invasion. The SCAN is then applied for the universe of sectors to capture signals of distress with more important aggregate consequences. |
| Date: | 2022–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bda:wpsmep:wp2022/3&r=cis |
| By: | Markus Haacker (Center for Global Development) |
| Abstract: | The war in Ukraine was associated with large changes in the prices of key food and fuel commodities (wheat, maize, coal, gas, and oil) in 2022 which produced macroeconomic gains for exporters and losses as import costs increased. Across 49 countries benefitting, these gains averaged about 8 percent of GDP and reach up to 36 percent of GDP. In contrast, 125 countries suffered direct losses between 0 percent of GDP and 5 percent of GDP, and 10 countries losses between 5 percent of GDP and 10 percent of GDP. Economic performance was significantly worse among countries experiencing losses from the commodity price shock. An increase in the costs of imports of 1 percent of GDP was associated with lower GDP growth (minus 0.1 percent) and a weakening fiscal balance. Most significantly, GDP in countries experiencing losses in the form of higher import costs bought less when measured against the consumer price index (a loss of 0.75 percent for each percent of GDP in increased import costs). This price effect wiped out all gains from real GDP growth for high-income countries experiencing a negative commodity price shock and resulted in declining living standards for low-income countries relying on imports. |
| Date: | 2023–08–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cgd:wpaper:652&r=cis |
| By: | Bulearca, Marius (Centrul de Economia Industriei si Serviciilor, Institutul National de Cercetari Economice al Academiei Romane); Muscalu, Mihai-Sabin (Centrul de Economia Industriei si Serviciilor, Institutul National de Cercetari Economice al Academiei Romane) |
| Abstract: | The natural gas crisis was a deep one. As Europeans paid higher bills starting in the winter of 2021-2022, European energy markets, from natural gas to carbon permits, hit new records. Geopolitics was not missing from the landscape either, where Russia made moves proving that Europe still remains, regardless of declarations, dependent on Russian gas. Starting from these considerations, the article aims to carry out an analysis of the causes that led to the emergence of the natural gas crisis, as well as the evolution of their prices in Romania. Thus, the paper studies the evolution of natural gas prices on specific markets and presents the measures taken by the Romanian Government to protect consumers (and primarily household consumers) in the face of high natural gas and, implicitly, energy prices, as well as the effects induced by them to players on the market, but also the long-term prospects, in the context of the (ongoing) conflict in Ukraine. Since the use of natural gas will continue to play an important role in supporting the transition of the EU economy from solid or nuclear fuel to green energy, at the end of the article it is concluded that the Romanian state authorities must give the national energy strategy the importance and urgency of the moment, and the subsequent implementation of the strategy must allow Romania to use its high potential, compared to other European countries, so as to become energy independent. |
| Keywords: | natural gas price, price cap, European Union, TTF Amsterdam hub, CEGH Vienna hub, Romanian Commodity Exchange |
| JEL: | D18 I38 L71 Q34 |
| Date: | 2023–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ror:seince:230912&r=cis |
| By: | Khondaker Golam Moazzem; Moumita A. Mallick |
| Abstract: | Natural gas supplied from domestic sources has historically dominated the energy landscape in Bangladesh. With the decreasing supply of domestic natural gas and increasing demand for gas and other energies in major economic activities, including power, Bangladesh had no choice but to use imported Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) to meet the prevailing demand. Over the years, imported natural gas has been creating a fiscal burden on the economy. The government’s fiscal pressure owing to imported LNG has reached its new height because of the Russia-Ukraine war. Due to the government’s financial stress, the additional need for subsidies to cover LNG costs would have several negative effects on the government’s ability to apportion the budget funds. Against this backdrop, it is important to learn about how Bangladesh’s demand for LNG imports has grown over the past five years and how much has the cost and subsidy increased in this sector. What will the market for LNG import look like in the next five years? What are the potential effects of an increase in LNG subsidies on Bangladesh’s financial situation, pressure on the budget, and subsidies in the food and agriculture sector? The objectives of this study are threefold- (a) to estimate the amount of subsidy needed for the import of LNG over the next three years; (b) to highlight any prospective adverse effects of utilising extra subsidies for imports of LNG at higher import prices, especially with consideration to the social sectors, and (c) to present a set of suggestions for a medium to long-term perspective to address the concerns of the social sectors. |
| Keywords: | Liquefied Natural Gas, LNG Market, LNG Import, Bangladesh |
| Date: | 2022–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pdb:pbrief:38&r=cis |
| By: | Bulearca, Marius (Centrul de Economia Industriei si Serviciilor, Institutul National de Cercetari Economice al Academiei Romane); Muscalu, Mihai-Sabin (Centrul de Economia Industriei si Serviciilor, Institutul National de Cercetari Economice al Academiei Romane) |
| Abstract: | Although the war in Ukraine is far from over, currently the natural gas market in Europe is in a state of "apparent calm" as a result, mainly, of the (rather) quick and (somewhat) determined reaction of the Brussels authorities, which aimed to mitigate the consequences of the sudden and uncontrolled increase in natural gas prices. Starting from these considerations, the article aims to carry out an analysis of the causes that led to the emergence of the natural gas crisis, as well as the evolution of their prices at the European level. Thus, the paper extensively studies how natural gas prices have evolved and the effects on the market induced by these developments, on the one hand, as well as how the European Union, as a whole, and the Member States, at the national level, reacted to protect the population, first of all, in the face of the wave of price increases registered as a result of the rapid and economically unjustified increase in the prices of natural gas and, implicitly, of energy. As it is clear that high gas and energy prices are harming EU consumers, whether they are families or businesses, urgent and necessary coordinated measures at the EU level were needed to protect consumers from increased costs; and these aspects were presented in detail in the paper. |
| Keywords: | natural gas price, price cap, European Union, TTF Amsterdam hub, CEGH Vienna hub |
| JEL: | D18 I38 L71 Q34 |
| Date: | 2023–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ror:seince:230911&r=cis |
| By: | Minot, Nicholas; Martin, Will |
| Abstract: | Kenya is potentially very vulnerable to sharp increases in the prices of key staple grains such as maize and wheat, both because these are important in diets and because Kenya depends on im ports of these products. A first step in understanding the impacts of changes in the prices of these products is to examine developments in their prices on world markets. After a long period of rela tively stable prices on world markets, the prices of key food staples began to rise from around the beginning of 2020. This period of price increases, spanning the COVID-19 pandemic and then the price shocks following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine raised serious concerns about the welfare of poor people in countries such as Kenya. Figure 1 shows the movements in the prices of four key grain staples—maize, rice, sorghum and wheat—from the beginning of 2020. |
| Keywords: | KENYA; EAST AFRICA; AFRICA SOUTH OF SAHARA; AFRICA; staple foods; grains; diets; prices; markets; Coronavirus; coronavirus disease; Coronavirinae; COVID-19; Ukraine; poverty |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:gccbrf:23&r=cis |
| By: | Abramov, Alexander (Абрамов, Александр) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Radygin, Alexander (Радыгин, Александр) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Chernova, Maria (Чернова, Мария) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | The purpose of this study is to analyze the experience of creating a system of mandatory pension savings and assess the effectiveness of the activities of non-state pension funds. The research is focused on the management of pension savings portfolios in Russia. As a research method we use portfolio optimization, analysis of long time series on the return of various investment strategies, regression analysis for decomposition of non-state pension fund returns, stochastic modeling of return and risk with given asset allocation and benchmarks, modelling replacement ratio of a pension savings system’s participant. The modern demographic trends, the development of the labour market in the context of the progress of industrial technologies and other processes create the prerequisites for changes in pension systems. At the same time, the increasing volatility of financial markets and the trend of low yields give rise to discussions about the role of the pension savings system, its ability to increase the sustainability of pension system. The ability of existing pension portfolio management strategies to generate the necessary returns for pension savings is challenged. However, the number of studies and reports devoted to the problems of pension fund performance is relatively small. All this predetermines the relevance of studying the aspects of the pension savings system effectiveness, the effectiveness of portfolio management strategies in modern financial markets, and the implementation of regulation practices. The novelty of the study lies in the fact that the authors tried to comprehend the experience of the system of mandatory pension savings, conditions and prerequisites of its implementation, achievements and difficulties, to analyze the effectiveness of the activities of non-state pension funds on pension savings investment. The main result of the study is the development of methodological approaches necessary to assess the success of pension savings reforms in Russia. According to our estimates, the decision to introduce a pension savings pillar had been justified and, under certain circumstances, could have improved the well-being of future pensioners. We conclude that the successful implementation of the mandatory pension savings was violated by the frequent change of the regulation on the long-term horizon, unbalanced development of state and savings pension pillars, and low investment efficiency. In the future, the development of our study should contribute to the development of an institution of long-term and trusted internal savings. |
| Keywords: | pension funds, non-state pension funds, investments, state pension, pension, mandatory pension savings, management of pension savings |
| JEL: | G11 G17 G18 H55 J14 J26 |
| Date: | 2022–11–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:w20220182&r=cis |
| By: | Minot, Nicholas; Martin, Will |
| Abstract: | The prices of staple grains on international markets began to rise in mid-2020 in response to higher fertilizer prices and supply constraints associated with the Covid-19 pandemic. They further spiked in early 2022 following the invasion of Ukraine by Russia. This brief examines the impact of these events on poverty in Nigeria. It is part of a series of six such briefs that estimate the poverty impact of higher world prices for staple grains. The other briefs cover Kenya, Ethiopia, Burkina Faso, Niger and Mali (see Minot and Martin, 2023a and 2023b; Martin and Minot, 2023a, 2023b, and 2023c). The methodological approach is similar in all six country studies. First, we examine the effect of the increases in international cereal prices on the real price of key grains in the domestic markets of the country. Second, we estimate the impact of the changes in domestic grain prices on the real income of each household using nationally-representative survey data, taking into account the importance of the commodities in consumption and as a source of income for each household. Finally, we estimate the changes in headcount poverty (the share of people living below the poverty line) based on the changes in real income for each household in the sample. We focus on the prices of maize, wheat, and sorghum for reasons discussed below. |
| Keywords: | NIGERIA; WEST AFRICA; AFRICA SOUTH OF SAHARA; AFRICA; grains; markets; fertlizers; supply chains; Coronavirus; coronavirus disease; Coronavirinae; COVID-19; Ukraine; cereals; households; poverty |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:gccbrf:26&r=cis |
| By: | Vincent Joguet |
| Abstract: | La trajectoire de croissance et de développement économique de la Serbie, pays doté d’une économie moderne et diversifiée tournée vers l’extérieur, repose à la fois sur les réformes fondamentales de son modèle énergétique, sur l’évolution du contexte économique mondial et sur une hypothétique intégration rapide dans l’Union européenne (UE).L’intégration de la Serbie dans l’UE, fil rouge officiel de la politique du parti au pouvoir malgré l’ambiguïté des discours, pourrait être le catalyseur d’une croissance plus forte. Mais le gouvernement est confronté à des défis de taille en vue de la convergence vers les standards de l’UE, à commencer par le renforcement de la démocratie électorale, du système judiciaire, de la liberté des médias et la normalisation des relations avec le Kosovo voisin. |
| Keywords: | Balkans occidentaux |
| JEL: | E |
| Date: | 2023–09–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:avg:wpaper:fr15947&r=cis |
| By: | Amutabi, Cyprian |
| Abstract: | This paper reviews the literature on the challenges, policy options, and prospects for Domestic Resource Mobilization (DRM) in Africa. Despite efforts made by African countries to enhance their resource mobilization capacity for the realization of both Agenda 2030 and Agenda 2063; notable challenges still exist and continue to hamper optimal revenue collection. Indeed, the prevailing global shocks namely the COVID-19 pandemic, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and the climate change crises have generated colossal financing gaps which now portray mixed visions for the continent. Nonetheless, the new horizon presents a vast array of prospects in which DRM endeavors within the continent can blossom. First, African countries should expedite their respective ratification processes for entry into force and operationalization of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) agreement to harness the trade opportunities embedded therein. Secondly, unlocking the idle resources entrenched in sovereign wealth and pension funds is paramount. Thirdly, harnessing the digital technology potential especially, mobile technology is pivotal. Four, capital market deepening promotes financial asset diversification. Five, to reap optimal benefits from their rich resource endowments, African countries need to invest in sophisticated skills and technology. Six, the Base Erosion and Profit Shifting (BEPS) project provides many African countries with the opportunity to seal any tax evasion or avoidance loopholes employed by Multinational Corporations (MNCs). BEPS addresses the transfer pricing challenge and is also instrumental in taming illicit capital flight. Finally, mitigating the effects of the climate change crisis requires the transfer of environmentally sound technologies from developed to developing countries. |
| Keywords: | Domestic Resource Mobilization; Challenges; Policy Options; Prospects; New Horizon |
| JEL: | E02 E6 H12 O1 |
| Date: | 2023–08–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:118372&r=cis |
| By: | Khondaker Golam Moazzem; Abeer Khandker |
| Abstract: | With the depletion of domestic natural gas reserves, Bangladesh’s energy market has become increasingly dependent on imported energy – mainly petroleum, LNG and coal. Hence, the volatility in the global energy market is gradually impacting the energy sector as well as the economy as a whole. The Ukraine war has further accentuated the global energy market crisis both in terms of energy supply and energy prices which have multi-dimensional adverse impacts on developing countries. There is no comprehensive study found on the war-led global energy crisis and its impact on inflation where the level of adversity has been measured. Most of the studies are indicative in terms of causal relationships between energy crisis and its impact on macroeconomic aggregates including inflation. Hence a quantitative analysis is required to show how the global energy market crisis led to domestic inflation, particularly in developing countries. In this backdrop, this study will seek to estimate the level of inflationary impact on Bangladesh economy due to global energy price volatility. |
| Keywords: | Fossil Fuel, Global Energy Crisis, Domestic Inflation, Energy sector, Bangladesh economy |
| Date: | 2022–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pdb:pbrief:39&r=cis |
| By: | Kohnert, Dirk |
| Abstract: | The West African Economic and Monetary Union (UEMOA) was established by France to counteract the dominance of Anglophone countries in West Africa, particularly Nigeria and Ghana, over Francophone West Africa. Francophonie in French West Africa is mainly driven by a power elite, the 'Pré Quarré' in both France and Africa. The notorious Françafrique network determined the fate of the region for decades. This provoked a growing anti-French sentiment, which focused on three points. First, development policy; second, the currency; and third, the military. France was the only western country to maintain a significant military presence in the Sahel. While the number of French troops has fallen drastically from 30, 000 in the early 1960s to around 6, 100 today, political and military interventionism has not abated. But, after so many years of failed military efforts against terrorism in the region, citizens became increasingly suspicious of France's motives for being there. However, a clear distinction must be made between anti-French sentiment and anti-French military presence. Many believe that any presence of foreign troops in the Sahel makes the situation worse by attracting rather than repelling extremists. Yet, this view obscures two important realities. First, the development of a broader authoritarian movement, driven in part by Russia, that challenges democracy and its proponents. The local population makes France the scapegoat for the worsening of their situation on the ground. Its political leaders are capitalizing on hostility to the colonial legacy, including the CFA franc and military cooperation. This is fertile ground for insurgent military officials, who have no legal legitimacy but a thirst for authenticity. The slogan 'France, get out' has become a new means of legitimizing political and military power in French-speaking Africa. However, for some autocrats it is also used as a welcome distraction from acknowledging their own responsibility for the predicament. Africans are becoming increasingly aware that France is staying in Africa for its own interests. But anti-French is not necessarily pro-coup. The axis of young, fiery military leaders, seeking legitimacy from their terrorized compatriots, exploited all sorts of populist sentiments, from Africanism to the quest for economic independence. They accused Paris of supporting the terrorists who are targeting the local population so that France can continue siphoning off their resources and thereby sinking the country into increasing poverty. It would be a mistake to think that making it clear to Africans that they are being manipulated by the Russians would end the whole thing. Nevertheless, the African heavyweights of UEMOA, Côte d'Ivoire and Senegal, as well as the other member states, will keep the Union together out of self-interest, albeit on fairer terms. African public opinion is-understandably extremely sensitive to being treated as an equal. They don't want to be lectured to or made fun of. |
| Keywords: | Françafrique; WAEMU; UEMOA; ECOWAS; Anti-French sentiment; Africanisms; coup d'état; governance; sustainable development; post-colonialism; informal sector; CFA franc; ODA; Sub-Saharan Africa; West Africa; Mali; Burkina Faso; Niger; Guinea; Nigeria; African Studies; |
| JEL: | F15 F35 F51 F52 F54 H12 H56 K42 L13 L72 N17 N47 Z13 |
| Date: | 2023–08–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:118357&r=cis |
| By: | Arellano-Bover, Jaime (Yale University); San, Shmuel (The Hebrew University of Jerusalem) |
| Abstract: | We study how job mobility, firms, and firm-ladder climbing can shape immigrants' labor market success. Our context is the migration of former Soviet Union Jews to Israel during the 1990s. This setting presents unique institutional features—including the lack of barriers posed by migration regulations—and rich data availability. Differential sorting across firms and differential pay-setting within firms both explain important shares of immigrant-native wage gap levels and dynamics. Immigrants are persistently more mobile than natives and faster at climbing the firm ladder. We uncover a novel, sizable job utility immigrant-native gap when incorporating non-wage amenities into the analysis. |
| Keywords: | immigrants, firms, job mobility, firm ladder, assimilation |
| JEL: | J31 J61 F22 |
| Date: | 2023–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp16389&r=cis |