nep-cis New Economics Papers
on Confederation of Independent States
Issue of 2023‒09‒18
thirteen papers chosen by

  1. Kokovtsov V.N.: life and activity By Belykh, Andrey (Белых, Андрей)
  2. New global development conditions of international economic relations: reforming directions By Pakhomov, Alexander (Пахомов, Александр); Bagdasaryan, Kniaz (Багдасарян, Княз)
  3. Assessment of migration potential from different countries of the world to Russia By Varshaver, Evgeny (Варшавер, Евгений); Rocheva, Anna (Рочева, Анна); Ivanova, Natalia (Иванова, Наталия)
  4. Relevance Assessment of Long-Term Care Formats in Russia By Manuilskaya, Ksenia (Мануильская, Ксения); Solodovnikova, Olga (Солодовникова, Ольга)
  6. The views of the population of the regions of the Russian Federation on fertility in a pandemic: the results of a qualitative study By Kazenin, Konstantin (Казенин, Константин)
  7. BEHAVIORAL STRATEGIES OF THE RUSSIAN POPULATION TO PROTECT ITS HEALTH: NEW CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES By Pokida, Andrei (Покида, Андрей); Gazieva, Inna (Газиева, Инна); Zybunovskaya, Natalia (Зыбуновская, Наталья)
  8. Параметры фискальной политики Казахстана. // Parameters of Kazakhstan’s Fiscal Policy. By Жакупова Меруерт // Zhakupova Meruyert; Дәулетханұлы Елдос // Dauletkhanuly Yeldos; Ханетова Аякоз // Khanetova Ayakoz
  9. Republic of Türkiye: 2022 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; and Staff Report By International Monetary Fund
  10. Were COVID and the Great Recession Well-Being Reducing? By Blanchflower, David G.; Bryson, Alex
  11. International Economic Sanctions and Third-Country Effects By Fabio Ghironi; Daisoon Kim; Galip Kemal Ozhan
  12. New challenges in international economics and finance By Jiménez-Rodríguez, Rebeca; Prats, María A.
  13. Does courier gender matter? Exploring mode choice behaviour for E-groceries crowd-shipping in developing economies By Oleksandr Rossolov; Anastasiia Botsman; Serhii Lyfenko; Yusak O. Susilo

  1. By: Belykh, Andrey (Белых, Андрей) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration)
    Abstract: This work describes life and activity of Vladimir Nikolaevich Kokovtsov, prime-minister (1911-1914) and minister of finance (1904-1905, 1906-1914) of the Russian Empire. In the history of the Russian Empire, of the USSR and of the Russian Federation, Kokovtsov was the only statesman to combine the position of minister of finance and of prime-minister. Though there are a number of works and several PhD theses devoted to Kokovtsov – a key actor of his time, a general evaluation of his personality and his influence on the economic development of Russia in the beginning of the 20th century is yet to be made. Filling this gap is the main goal of this work. The object of investigation is Kokovtsov’s political biography, his economic and financial policy, and his efforts to reasonably limit military expenditures. The work is based on both personal materials left by Vladimir Kokovtsov (memoirs, letters), and official documents. Several archived materials – memos on financial matters of military defense made up by Kokovtsov – are published for the first time. The author verifies authenticity of the sources and confirms or refutes some facts presented by Kokovtsov using an array of modern methods of historical science including the principle of historicism, principle of classification, comparative-historical method, and some others. Beyond doubt, Vladimir Nikolaevich Kokovtsov was an outstanding statesman. He was not a politician in the traditional sense. On the contrary, he served his country as an “honest bureaucrat”. Steadfast observation of laws, honesty, efficient financial policy, love for Russia – all these characteristics describe his personality.
    Keywords: history of Russia, V.N. Kokovtsov, economic policy, finances, 20th century, military expenditures
    JEL: N13 N23 O23
    Date: 2021–11
  2. By: Pakhomov, Alexander (Пахомов, Александр) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Bagdasaryan, Kniaz (Багдасарян, Княз) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration)
    Abstract: The study analyzes the latest trends in the reform of international economic relations, especially global trade and capital flows worldwide. It also analyzes the opportunities and limitations of Russia’s participation in international economic reform processes in the interests of the national economy and foreign trade. The main purpose of the study is to identify emerging trends in global economy and international relations at the present stage and define the opportunities for Russia’s participation in the new processes. The main objectives of the study are: a) to identify the main factors and areas of transformation of international economic relations; b) to determine possible directions of reforming various sectors of the global economy; c) to study potential shifts in the balance of power and interests in the global economy at different levels - i.e. country, region and global; d) to identify opportunities and limitations for the Russian Federation to participate in the processes of transformation of international economic relations with regard to national interests; e) to reveal the main directions of Russia’s interaction with various groups of countries and international organizations under the new conditions. Special attention is given to the reform of global value chains, transformation of world trade and shifts in the balance of power in international economic relations. Finally, the study provides an expert assessment of the problem of maintaining the market status of the Russian economy and practical recommendations for a possible solution of this issue. is aimed at solving this problem.
    Keywords: international economic relations, globalization, global supply chains, transformation, multipolarity.
    Date: 2021–10–19
  3. By: Varshaver, Evgeny (Варшавер, Евгений) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Rocheva, Anna (Рочева, Анна) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Ivanova, Natalia (Иванова, Наталия) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration)
    Abstract: The paper presents the results of a study conducted with the purpose of assessing various countries of the world in terms of migration potential to Russia, defined as the prospect of the emergence or increase in the volume of migration to Russia as a result of the purposeful efforts of the Russian state and society. The text presents a theoretical model, methodology and calculations of three main indicators: the general migration potential of the country, the migration potential to Russia and the migration potential to Russia, taking into account the population of the respective country. The formulas developed for calculating the migration potential take into account a variety of factors: demographic, geographic, economic, political, etc. For each indicator, calculations were made based on the available statistics for 129 countries. The results of the calculations allow singling out the countries that are most interesting from the point of view of migration potential to Russia – these are, first of all, the countries of Africa and the former USSR. The final part of the text discusses the limitations of the presented study and prospects for further work.
    Date: 2021–11–08
  4. By: Manuilskaya, Ksenia (Мануильская, Ксения) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Solodovnikova, Olga (Солодовникова, Ольга) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration)
    Abstract: TThe paper is based on the findings of the research work “The Elderly People’s Needs for the New Type of Social Housing: Perception, Assessment And Expectations”, conducted by the team of the Field Research Center of the RANEPA Institute of Social Analysis and Forecasting in 2021. The work is an extension of the last year’s project and includes a systematic review of current foreign literature on aging, long-term care, and the analysis of the results of an all-Russian telephone survey. Currently, the main approach in long-term care is the concept of “aging at home”. However, the concept of “home” and living space is considered quite broadly and is not limited to the formal dwelling. The 2020 research work resulted in the development of the concept of a “new type of social home”, which can apply both to the design of new residential compounds and to renovation or adaptation of an existing residential compound and social infrastructure to the needs of the older generation. The implementation of any concept should be preceded by an assessment of its relevance and population demand. That was the aim of this year’s telephone survey, the results of which are presented in the paper, and may be useful for scientific and methodological support of programs and strategies in the field of aging and old age, for the formation of state policy in the field of social protection of the elderly, as well as for the development of specific social policy directions, measures and mechanisms.
    Keywords: the elderly, active longevity, sociology of aging, aging at home, elderly care, social housing, nursing home, age-friendly environment, social policy
    Date: 2021–11–11
  5. By: Tanshina, Natalia (Таньшина, Наталия) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration)
    Abstract: Relevance of the study. The attitude towards the Russian Federation in the modern world is highly complex and contradictory. This is due, in part, ’to the traditional perception of Russia in the west in the context of the binary “Friend-or-Foe” juxtaposition. Studying the origins of these processes is undoubtedly relevant. The object of the study is the perception of Russia in the public opinion of France in the XIX century, and the development of the image of Russia in the public opinion of France during the XIX - XXI centuries. The purpose of the study is to examine the historical roots of the perception of Russia in the public opinion of France and in the French intellectual circles, based on the analysis of the works of French authors of the 1840s-1880s, and to compare this image with modern ideas about Russia in the French intellectual and political circles. The study was conducted in 2021 as part of the RANEPA research work. Research method or methodology: The research involves the use of an interdisciplinary synthesis methodology based on classical historical analysis. The study of stereotypes of mutual perception and the reconstruction of the “image of the Other” require applying the methodology of imagological research. In addition, the study of political ideology involves applying the methodology of intellectual history and the history of ideas. The results of the study: using the example of the analysis of the image of Russia formed in the public opinion of France in the XIX - XX centuries, the authors attempt to: - identify the main circle of authors writing about Russia in the period under review, to determine the main circle of sources and to classify them; - study the works about Russia written in the 1840s, after the publication of the book by Astolphe de Custine; - analyze the transformation of the view of Russia on the eve and during the Crimean War (1853-1856); - study the changes in the perception of Russia after the Crimean War, given the improvement of Franco-Russian relations in the years preceding the conclusion of the Franco-Russian Union.
    Keywords: stereotypes of mutual perception, imagology, the Russian Empire, France, images of the other, public opinion
    Date: 2021–11–08
  6. By: Kazenin, Konstantin (Казенин, Константин) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration)
    Abstract: This preprint outlines the results of a sociological survey (focus groups) carried out in May-June 2021 in five regions of Russia. The purpose of the survey was to study the respondents’ attitude towards childbearing and the new pronatalist state policy measures in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic, and to discover the respondents’ views on the conditions necessary for becoming a parent in the pandemic conditions. The results of the survey are of interest for forecasting birth rates in Russia.
    Date: 2021–11–12
  7. By: Pokida, Andrei (Покида, Андрей) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Gazieva, Inna (Газиева, Инна) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Zybunovskaya, Natalia (Зыбуновская, Наталья) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration)
    Abstract: The scientific report presents a study conducted by the Research Center of Socio-Political Monitoring of the School of Public Policy and Management at RANEPA Institute for Social Sciences. The relevance of the study: Preserving and strengthening the health of the population is a priority task for the Russian state. Currently, this problem is acquiring special significance in the context of changes in the social reality associated with a challenging COVID-19 pandemic situation. The purpose of the study is to analyze the behavioral strategies of the population related to maintaining and improving their health. The objectives of the study are related to assessing the degree of influence of the main behavioral factors on the health and social well-being of the citizens, with an assessment of the measures taken by the state to form behavioral strategies of the population aimed at protecting and strengthening their health. The subject of the study is the prevalence of various types of behavioral strategies and their impact on the health status and social well-being of representatives of different socio-demographic groups and strata. Methods: The main source of empirical information was the all-Russian sociological survey of the population, conducted on April 8- 19, 2021 using the method of formalized personal interviews at the respondents’ place of residence. 1, 500 people aged 18 and over were interviewed in 30 regions of the Russian Federation. Results: The study records an increase in the people’s positive self-perception of their health over the past two decades; at the same time, the respondents are susceptible to a wide range of diseases. There is an increase in demand for qualified medical care in case of illness; however, self-medication remains widespread, which can negatively affect people's health. The people’s actual behavior often does not correspond to their ideas about a healthy lifestyle. Russians do not have a well-developed culture of healthy lifestyles; they lack the habit of daily positive activities to maintain and strengthen their health. In general, the results of the study show insufficiency of the measures taken by the state to create conditions for strengthening the public health. Conclusions. The problems identified show the need to increase the availability of medical care, improve health awareness of the public, expand incentives for self-preservation and health promotion. Scientific novelty. The value of this study lies in obtaining up-to-date information on the priorities of the Russian citizens, their self-preservation behavior in a force majeure situation of an epidemiological crisis and its consequences, which can contribute to promoting managerial decisions in healthcare and social development that are adequate to the needs of the population.
    Keywords: lifestyle, behavioral strategies, public health, social well-being, health care, COVID-19 pandemic, physical activity, food culture, health care system
    Date: 2021–11–08
  8. By: Жакупова Меруерт // Zhakupova Meruyert (National Bank of Kazakhstan); Дәулетханұлы Елдос // Dauletkhanuly Yeldos; Ханетова Аякоз // Khanetova Ayakoz (National Bank of Kazakhstan)
    Abstract: В последние годы, особенно в свете глобальных кризисов, все большую популярность приобретает анализ фискальной политики с использованием концепции структурного баланса. Некоторые страны в целях преодоления проблемы процикличности и фискальной волатильности начали закреплять правовую базу для бюджетных правил, основанных на структурном балансе. Суть этого заключается в том, что фискальная политика, основанная на правилах, позволяет автоматическим стабилизаторам свободно работать в течение цикла и накапливать профицит бюджета в «хорошие» времена. Однако оценка структурного баланса сопряжена с рядом методологических проблем, включая степень неопределенности оценки. Настоящая работа посвящена изучению фискальной политики Республики Казахстан в период 2010 – 2022 годы путем оценивания циклически- скорректированного фискального баланса, ненефтяного фискального баланса и структурного фискального баланса с целью анализа характера фискальной политики Казахстана, в том числе с учетом сырьевой направленности нашей экономики. Результаты оценки свидетельствуют о тенденции к процикличности фискальной политики. Оценки, приведенные в данной работе, могут быть использованы для дальнейшего углубленного изучения характера фискальной политики Казахстана с использованием других методов, а также фискальными властями в целях закрепления бюджетных правил, основанных на структурном фискальном балансе. // In recent years, especially in the light of global crises, the fiscal policy analysis using the concept of structural balance has become increasingly popular. Some countries, in order to overcome the problem of pro-cyclicality and fiscal volatility, have begun to consolidate the legal framework for fiscal rules based on structural balance. The essence of this is that the rules-based fiscal policy allows automatic stabilizers to function freely through the cycle and build up budget surpluses in “good” times. However, the estimation of structural balance is associated with a number of methodological problems, including the degree of uncertainty in the estimation. This paper is devoted to the study of fiscal policy of the Republic of Kazakhstan during 2010 – 2022 by estimating the cyclically adjusted fiscal balance, non-oil fiscal balance and structural fiscal balance in order to analyze the nature of Kazakhstan’s fiscal policy, also taking into account the raw-material orientation of our economy. The estimation results point to a trend towards a pro-cyclical fiscal policy. The estimates provided in this paper can be used for further in-depth study of the nature of Kazakhstan’s fiscal policy using other methods, as well as by the fiscal authorities in order to consolidate fiscal rules based on the structural fiscal balance.
    Keywords: Kazakhstan, fiscal policy, tax and budget policy, fiscal expansion, government revenues, government expenditure, government spending, fiscal impulse, structural fiscal balance, budget deficit, non-oil deficit, oil revenues, output gap, budget revenue elasticity with respect to output gap, procyclical fiscal policy, Казахстан, фискальная политика, налогово-бюджетная политика, фискальная экспансия, государственные доходы, государственные расходы, фискальный импульс, структурный фискальный баланс, бюджетный дефицит, ненефтяной дефицит, нефтяные доходы, разрыв выпуска, эластичность доходов бюджета к разрыву выпуска, проциклическая фискальная политика
    JEL: E62 H61 H62
    Date: 2023
  9. By: International Monetary Fund
    Abstract: Türkiye’s recovery from the pandemic has been remarkable and reflects outsized stimulative policies and a dynamic private sector. But the same policies that buoyed growth also exacerbated vulnerabilities by lowering reserve buffers and increasing dollarization. A new policy model, introduced in the Fall of 2021, aims at further supporting growth and at lowering inflation by eliminating Türkiye’s current account deficit. The model relies on low interest rates and on measures to reduce dollarization, financial volatility, and overall credit growth, while directing lending to selected sectors. Successive policy rate cuts led to a run on the lira in December 2021, which was only relieved by large FX intervention and a new FX-protected deposit scheme. Since then, increasingly distortionary and complex macrofinancial and regulatory measures have been put in place to limit the lira decline. Meanwhile, inflation reached multi-decade highs, at 85 percent in October 2022. While Türkiye’s public debt burden is low compared to peers, fiscal risks have grown—notably from quasi-fiscal operations, contingent liabilities, and the exposure of public debt to FX shocks—and spending is expected to rise ahead of the upcoming elections. Spillovers from Russia’s war in Ukraine have added to Türkiye’s economic strains and have exacerbated external vulnerabilities, notably through a wider current account deficit.
    Date: 2023–01–18
  10. By: Blanchflower, David G. (Dartmouth College); Bryson, Alex (University College London)
    Abstract: Using micro-data on six surveys – the Gallup World Poll 2005-2023, the U.S. Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, 1993-2022, Eurobarometer 1991-2022, the UK Covid Social Survey Panel, 2020-2022, the European Social Survey 2002-2020 and the IPSOS Happiness Survey 2018-2023 – we show individuals' reports of subjective wellbeing in Europe did decline in the Great Recession of 2008/9 and during the Covid pandemic of 2020-2021 on most measures and on four bordering countries to Ukraine after the Russian invasion in 2022. However, the movements are not large and are not apparent everywhere. We also used data from the European Commission's Business and Consumer Surveys on people's expectations of life in general, their financial situation and the economic and employment situation in the country, all of which dropped markedly in the Great Recession and during Covid, but bounced back quickly, as did firms' expectations of the economy and the labor market. Neither the annual data from the United Nation's Humasn Development Index (HDI) nor data used in the World Happiness Report from the Gallup World Poll shifted much in response to negative shocks. The HDI has been rising in the last decade or so reflecting overall improvements in economic and social wellbeing, captured in part by real earnings growth, although it fell slightly after 2020 as life expectancy dipped. This secular improvement is mirrored in life satisfaction which has been rising in the last decade. However, so too have negative affect in Europe and despair in the United States.
    Keywords: subjective wellbeing, life satisfaction, expectations, Human Development Index, Great Recession, COVID-19
    JEL: I31
    Date: 2023–07
  11. By: Fabio Ghironi; Daisoon Kim; Galip Kemal Ozhan
    Abstract: This paper studies international trade and macroeconomic dynamics triggered by economic sanctions, and the associated welfare losses, in a calibrated, three-country model of the world economy. We assume that there are two production sectors in each country, and the sanctioned country has a comparative advantage in production of a commodity (for convenience, gas) needed to produce final, differentiated consumption goods. We consider three types of sanctions: sanctions on trade in final goods, financial sanctions, and gas trade sanctions. We calibrate the model to an aggregate of countries currently imposing sanctions on Russia (the European Union, the United Kingdom, and the United States), Russia, and an aggregate of third countries (China, India, and Turkey). We show that, instead of reflecting the success of sanctions, exchange rate movements reflect the type of sanctions and the direction of the resulting within-country sectoral reallocations. Our welfare analysis demonstrates that the sanctioned country’s welfare losses are significantly mitigated, and the sanctioning country’s losses are amplified, if the third country does not join the sanctions, but the third country benefits from not joining. These findings highlight the necessity, but also the challenge, of coordinating sanctions internationally.
    Keywords: Economic models; Exchange rates; International topics
    JEL: F31 F42 F51
    Date: 2023–08
  12. By: Jiménez-Rodríguez, Rebeca; Prats, María A.
    Abstract: This Special Issue brings together 13 papers that examine a variety of central topics in the field of international economics and finance. These papers were presented at the 23rd Conference on International Economics held in Málaga (Spain) on 16th–17th June 2022. The conference was organised by the Spanish Association of International Economics and Finance (AEEFI) and the University of Málaga. The selected papers make up an interesting and revealing set of information to study the new challenges of the international economics and finance in a context especially marked by the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis, the climate change, the challenge posed by the COVID-19 crisis and the instability unleashed after the invasion of Ukraine in 2022. From different perspectives, the papers analyse how events that have particularly affected the evolution of the world economy have substantially altered the rules of international trade, foreign direct investment, as well as monetary, fiscal or sectoral policy. The conference included two keynote lectures by Per Krusell (Institute for International Economic Studies, Stockholm University) and Fabio Canova (Norwegian Business School and Budapest School for Central Banking Studies), as well as 97 selected contributions.
    Keywords: international economics; international finance
    JEL: F3 G3 J1 M40
    Date: 2023–08–03
  13. By: Oleksandr Rossolov; Anastasiia Botsman; Serhii Lyfenko; Yusak O. Susilo
    Abstract: This paper examines the mode choice behaviour of people who may act as occasional couriers to provide crowd-shipping (CS) deliveries. Given its recent increase in popularity, online grocery services have become the main market for crowd-shipping deliveries' provider. The study included a behavioural survey, PTV Visum simulations and discrete choice behaviour modelling based on random utility maximization theory. Mode choice behaviour was examined by considering the gender heterogeneity of the occasional couriers in a multimodal urban transport network. The behavioural dataset was collected in the city of Kharkiv, Ukraine, at the beginning of 2021. The results indicated that women were willing to provide CS service with 8% less remuneration than men. Women were also more likely to make 10% longer detours by car and metro than men, while male couriers were willing to implement 25% longer detours when travelling by bike or walking. Considering the integration of CS detours into the couriers' routine trip chains, women couriers were more likely to attach the CS trip to the work-shopping trip chain whilst men would use the home-home evening time trip chain. The estimated marginal probability effect indicated a higher detour time sensitivity with respect to expected profit and the relative detour costs of the couriers.
    Date: 2023–08

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