nep-cis New Economics Papers
on Confederation of Independent States
Issue of 2023‒06‒26
thirty papers chosen by

  1. Mind the force majeure clauses in investment contracts By Wang, Lu; Shan, Wenhua
  2. Uncertainty about the War in Ukraine: Measurement and Effects on the German Business Cycle By Moritz Grebe; Sinem Kandemir; Peter Tillmann
  3. The impact of the Ukraine conflict on world grains prices By Gilbert, Christopher L.
  4. The shift in Russian trade during a year of war By Simola, Heli
  5. Blowback: The effect of sanctions on democratic elections By Crozet, Matthieu; Hinz, Julian
  6. Diskursversagen im Ukraine-Konflikt? Ein ordonomisches Follow-Up By Pies, Ingo
  7. To Russia with love? The impact of sanctions on regime support By Gold, Robert; Hinz, Julian; Valsecchi, Michele
  8. What the literature says about the effects of sanctions on Russia By Simola, Heli
  9. Diskursversagen im Ukraine-Konflikt: Rückblick und Ausblick By Pies, Ingo
  10. European Small Business Finance Outlook 2022 By Kraemer-Eis, Helmut; Botsari, Antonia; Gvetadze, Salome; Lang, Frank; Torfs, Wouter
  11. Brothers in arms: The value of coalitions in sanctions regimes By Sonali Chowdhry; Julian Hinz; Katrin Kamin
  12. The next swing of the pendulum? Cross-border aid and shifting aid paradigms in post-coup Myanmar By Matteo Funagalli
  13. Geflüchtete aus der Ukraine in Deutschland : Flucht, Ankunft und Leben (Ukrainian refugees in Germany: Escape, arrival and everyday life) By Brücker, Herbert; Ette, Andreas; Grabka, Markus M.; Kosyakova, Yuliya; Niehues, Wenke; Rother, Nina; Spieß, C. Katharina; Zinn, Sabine; Bujard, Martin; Cardozo, Adriana; Décieux, Jean Philippe; Maddox, Amrei; Milewski, Nadja; Naderi, Robert; Sauer, Lenore; Schmitz, Sophia; Schwanhäuser, Silvia; Siegert, Manuel; Tanis, Kerstin
  14. How Resilient is Public Support for Carbon Pricing? Longitudinal Evidence from Germany By Sommer, Stephan; Konc, Théo; Drews, Stefan
  15. Did the policy response to the energy crisis cause crime? Evidence from England By Fetzer, Thiemo
  16. Who is to suffer? Quantifying the impact of sanctions on German firms By Görg, Holger; Jacobs, Anna; Meuchelböck, Saskia
  17. Öffentlicher Vernunftgebrauch in Zeiten des Krieges: Über die Rechte und Pflichten von Intellektuellen By Pies, Ingo
  18. Die Energieabhängigkeit der Bankkredite: Eine empirische Untersuchung By Demary, Markus; Taft, Niklas Florian
  19. Mittelfristig erhebliche Risiken für den NRW-Landeshaushalt und die Kommunen By Truger, Achim
  20. Post-COVID Inflation & the Monetary Policy Dilemma: An Agent-Based Scenario Analysis By Max Sina Knicker; Karl Naumann-Woleske; Jean-Philippe Bouchaud; Francesco Zamponi
  21. The Federal Reserve's Response to the Global Financial Crisis and Its Long-Term Impact: An Interrupted Time-Series Natural Experimental Analysis By Arnaud Cedric Kamkoum
  22. Deutsche Wirtschaft im Frühjahr 2023: Konjunktur fängt sich, Auftriebskräfte eher gering By Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens; Groll, Dominik; Hoffmann, Timo; Jannsen, Nils; Kooths, Stefan; Sonnenberg, Nils; Stamer, Vincent
  23. A Comparative Study of the Psychological Traits between Ordinary Korean Adolescents and Ethnic Korean “Goryeoin†Adolescents from Ukraine who came to South Korea after Experiencing the Ukrainian War By Brian Euijin Lee
  24. Political cycles of media repression By Schulze, Günther G.; Zakharov, Nikita
  25. The Changed Geopolitical Map: Implications for Business Policy in a Sustainable Finance Perspective By Ghauri, Pervez N.; Oxelheim, Lars; Randøy, Trond
  26. Post-colonial Citizenship and Decolonisation as a Turning Point: Continuities and Discontinuities in African states By Bronwen Manby
  27. Neue US-Exportkontrollen und die wichtigsten Fragen für die EU: Empfehlungen für eine robuste europäische Ausfuhrkontrollpolitik By Chorzempa, Martin; von Daniels, Laura
  28. Bullying among Kazakhstan School Learners and Overcoming Strategies By Assylbekova Marziya; Atemova Kalipa; Baltabayeva Zhaniyat; Muhambek Dilnur
  29. Equitization and financial restructuring of listed companies By Romain Feydel
  30. Mongolia: Technical Assistance Report-Central Bank Communications By International Monetary Fund

  1. By: Wang, Lu; Shan, Wenhua
    Abstract: Force majeure clauses in investment contracts are currently in the spotlight, especially due to the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war. This Perspective highlights some key issues for parties to consider when declaring force majeure and suggests clarifying contractual language.
    Date: 2023
  2. By: Moritz Grebe (Justus Liebig University Giessen); Sinem Kandemir (Justus Liebig University Giessen); Peter Tillmann (Justus Liebig University Giessen)
    Abstract: We assemble a data set of more that eight million German Twitter posts related to the war in Ukraine. Based on state-of-the-art methods of text analysis, we construct a daily index of uncertainty about the war as perceived by German Twitter. The approach also allows us to separate this index into uncertainty about sanctions against Russia, energy policy and other dimensions. We then estimate a VAR model with daily financial and macroeconomic data and identify an exogenous uncertainty shock. The increase in uncertainty has strong effects on financial markets and causes a significant decline in economic activity as well as an increase in expected inflation. We find the effects of uncertainty to be particularly strong in the first months of the war.
    Keywords: war, Twitter, geopolitical risk, machine learning, business cycle
    JEL: D8 E3 G1
    Date: 2023
  3. By: Gilbert, Christopher L.
    Abstract: The war in Ukraine, which started in February 2022, has disrupted the important Black Sea grain trade. At the same time, and partly as a consequence of the war and of Western sanctions, both energy and fertilizer prices have soared. Many commentators have attributed rises in food prices on world marketsto the Ukraine conflict. The paper reports an analysis of the impact of the war on wheat and corn prices in the world market. The estimates are obtained from an empirical implementation of the competitive storage model. The model links the prices of hard wheat and corn to grain availability, grain stocks and crude oil and fertilizer prices taking into account the Black Sea Grains Initiative (BSGI). Three counterfactuals are analyzed – “no war”, “no BSGI” and “no sanctions”.
    Keywords: International Relations/Trade, Demand and Price Analysis
    Date: 2023–03
  4. By: Simola, Heli
    Abstract: This note examines changes in Russia's foreign trade during the past year. We discuss general trends in Russia's trade based on estimates constructed from mirror statistics and developments in EU-Russia trade. The detailed analysis of Russia's technology imports includes a selection of goods subject to EU export restrictions. We find substantial fluctuations in Russia's trade flows and changes in its geographical structure. EU trade with Russia has generally declined substantially and Russia is not an important export market for most EU countries. Our findings suggest that Russia has been unable to find viable substitutes for many EU imports at the aggregate level and most individual technology goods subject to EU export restrictions. Other countries have stepped into the breach and increased their exports to Russia, and in the case of certain products, their exports even exceed the comparable imports lost from the EU.
    Keywords: Russia, Ukraine, trade, sanctions
    Date: 2023
  5. By: Crozet, Matthieu; Hinz, Julian
    Abstract: Sanctions are meant to coerce political adversaries through economic measures. However, evidence for their effectiveness is scarce. In this paper we assess the impact of sanctions on a democracy - France - by studying the electoral consequences of the sanctions and countersanctions imposed between Russia and Western countries. Contrary to most of the existing literature we find clear evidence for exposure to the sanctions to cause an increase in the vote share for pro-Russian (and far-right) candidates during the French 2017 presidential election. Locally, the impact on voting is substantial. Back-of-the-envelope calculations indicate that about 16, 300 votes for the main far-right candidate can be directly attributed to the sanctions' impact. This is the total number of votes cast in a medium-sized French city. It is however not nearly enough to have affected the outcome of the election at the national level.
    Keywords: Sanctions, Elections, Embargo, Russia, France
    JEL: F13 F51 D72 D74
    Date: 2023
  6. By: Pies, Ingo
    Abstract: Dieser Artikel geht aus einer ordonomischen Perspektive vier Fragen nach. Sie lauten: 1. Was genau ist unter einer Diskursblockade oder einem Diskursversagen zu verstehen? 2. Was sind geeignete Maßnahmen gegen Diskursversagen? 3. Wo genau versagt der Ukraine-Diskurs? 4. Wie lauten - für beide Seiten - einige wichtige der gegenwärtig nicht adressierten Fragen?
    Keywords: Ordonomik, Diskursblockade, Ukraine, Krieg, Friedensverhandlungen, ordonomics, discourse blockade, Ukraine, war, peace negotiations
    Date: 2023
  7. By: Gold, Robert; Hinz, Julian; Valsecchi, Michele
    Abstract: Do economic sanctions affect internal support of sanctioned countries' governments? To answer this question, we focus on the sanctions imposed on Russia in 2014 and identify their effect on voting behavior in both presidential and parliamentary elections. On the economic side, the sanctions significantly hurt Russia's foreign trade - with regional-level variation. We use trade losses caused by the sanctions as measure for regional sanction exposure. For identification, we rely on a structural gravity model that allows us to compare observed trade flows to counterfactual flows in the absence of sanctions. Difference-in-differences estimations reveal that regime support significantly increases in response to the sanctions, at the expense of voting support of Communist parties. For the average Russian district, sanction exposure increases the vote share gained by president Putin and his party by 13 percent. Event studies and placebo estimations confirm the validity of our results.
    Keywords: Economic sanctions, voting behavior, gravity estimation, rally-around-the-flag
    JEL: F12 F14 F15
    Date: 2023
  8. By: Simola, Heli
    Abstract: This policy brief frames the discussion of sanctions imposed on Russia since the invasion of Ukraine in a wider international and historical perspective. We present a brief review of recent literature related to the macroeconomic effects of sanctions in Russia and other countries. Our analysis suggests that the general economic effects of the war and sanctions on Russia are neither unprecedented nor insignificant in comparison to previous sanction episodes. The literature also suggests that while the overall economic effects of sanctions on Russia have been diluted by various factors, they have strongly affected the parts of the Russian economy they target.
    Keywords: Russia, war, sanctions, trade, FDI
    Date: 2023
  9. By: Pies, Ingo
    Abstract: Dieser Artikel stellt und beantwortet aus einer ordonomischen Perspektive zwei Fragen. Die erste nimmt die Perspektive eines Rückblicks, die zweite die eines Ausblicks an. Die erste Frage lautet: Wie konnte es in der Diskussion um den Ukraine-Krieg zu einem Diskursversagen kommen? Hier geht es also um eine Diagnose. Die zweite Frage hingegen betrifft mögliche Therapien. Sie lautet: Wie lassen sich die Diskussionen um den Ukraine-Krieg konstruktiver gestalten?
    Keywords: Ordonomik, Diskurs, Sicherheitspolitik, ordonomics, discourse, security policy
    Date: 2023
  10. By: Kraemer-Eis, Helmut; Botsari, Antonia; Gvetadze, Salome; Lang, Frank; Torfs, Wouter
    Abstract: This working paper provides an overview of the main markets relevant to the EIF, thereby documenting the impact of the current inflationary environment, the war in Ukraine and the aftermath of the pandemic on the SME financing environment. The publication first discusses the general market environment and then covers the markets for SME equity and debt products. In addition, it focuses on a number of thematic policy areas that are of particular interest to the EIF, such as Inclusive Finance, Fintech and Green finance & investment.
    Keywords: SMEs, SME financing, private equity, bank guarantee, microfinance, financial technology, sustainable investment, Europe
    Date: 2022
  11. By: Sonali Chowdhry; Julian Hinz; Katrin Kamin
    Abstract: This paper examines the impact of coalitions on the economic costs of the 2012 Iran and 2014 Russia sanctions. By estimating and simulating a quantitative general equilibrium trade model under different coalition set-ups, we (i) dissect welfare losses for sanction-senders and target; (ii) compare prospective coalition partners and; (iii) provide bounds for the sanctions potential — the maximum welfare change attainable — when sanctions are scaled vertically, i.e. across sectors up to an embargo, or horizontally, i.e. across countries up to a global regime. To gauge the significance of simulation outcomes, we implement a Bayesian bootstrap procedure that generates confidence bands. We find that the implemented measures against Iran and Russia inflicted considerable economic harm, yielding 32 – 37% of the vertical sanctions potential. Our key finding is that coalitions lower the average welfare loss incurred from sanctions relative to unilateral implementation. They also increase the welfare loss imposed on Iran and Russia. Adding China to the coalition further amplifies the welfare loss by 79% for Iran and 22% for Russia. Finally, we quantify transfers that would equalize losses across coalition members. These hypothetical transfers can be seen as a sanctions-equivalent of NATO spending goals and provide a measure of the relative burden borne by coalition countries.
    Keywords: Sanctions, Embargoes, Alliances, Sectoral linkages
    Date: 2022–10
  12. By: Matteo Funagalli
    Abstract: The 1 February 2021 military coup in Myanmar confronted the international community, including donors and aid workers, with a significant challenge: how to ensure that relief and life-saving support are delivered to those in greatest need at a time when international attention – and already limited resources – are likely to come under severe stress in the aftermath of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. From the early 2010s onwards, Myanmar had shed its status of international pariah (under western sanctions) to take on the ‘mantel’ of the ‘donors’ darling.’ This reflected an important rapid change from isolation to engagement in the way that many western (and some non-western) actors approached relations with the country. From the late 2000s onwards, international assistance moved from non-governmental organisations in the borderlands – also based in neighbouring countries – to the national government, and from humanitarian aid to development. In the aftermath of the coup the encounter between the international donor community and the people of Myanmar is likely to be re-defined by a triple shift in the aid paradigm putting earlier trends in reverse gear: from engagement to isolation, from development to humanitarian aid and from the state and government to non-state and informal institutions in the borderlands. With the military regime engaged in a de facto aid blockade, cross-border aid is likely to be the most realistic way to deliver humanitarian and emergency aid and relief to local communities, particularly in Myanmar’s border regions. The distribution and delivery of aid will be best served by close cooperation with local migrant-based community-building organisations and civil society groups, and cross-border charities and NGOs based in and around refugee camps, drawing on their networks and experience in delivering aid during previous rounds of refugeehood and displacement.
    Keywords: Myanmar/Burma, sanctions, junta, military coup, resistance, international community, cross-border aid, development assistance, humanitarian aid, aid paradigm.
    Date: 2022–07
  13. By: Brücker, Herbert (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany ; Humboldt Univ.); Ette, Andreas (BiB); Grabka, Markus M. (SOEP); Kosyakova, Yuliya (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany ; Univ. Bamberg); Niehues, Wenke (BAMF-FZ); Rother, Nina (BAMF-FZ); Spieß, C. Katharina (BiB); Zinn, Sabine (SOEP); Bujard, Martin (BiB); Cardozo, Adriana (SOEP); Décieux, Jean Philippe (BiB); Maddox, Amrei (BAMF-FZ); Milewski, Nadja (BiB); Naderi, Robert (BiB); Sauer, Lenore (BiB); Schmitz, Sophia (BiB); Schwanhäuser, Silvia (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Siegert, Manuel (BAMF-FZ); Tanis, Kerstin (BAMF-FZ)
    Abstract: "The Institute for Employment Research (IAB), the Federal Institute for Population Research (BiB), the Research Centre of the Federal Office for Migration and Refugees, and the Socio-Economic Panel at DIW Berlin have surveyed 11, 225 Ukrainian refugees in Germany from August to October 2022. The survey can be extrapolated to the refuge population who has arrived since the beginning of the war at February 24, 2022, to June 8, 2022, in Germany. The results show that the majority of refugees from Ukraine report war as the main flight motive, while personal contacts and respect of human rights were the main reasons to choose Germany as a destination. Roughly 80 percent of adult refugees are women. About the half lives together with minor-aged children, about 80 percent without a partner. Some 70 percent have tertiary education degrees. Yet, only 4 percent report good or very good, another 14 percent fair German language proficiency. About 50 percent visits or has already completed a German language class. 17 percent are employed, with some 70 percent of those performing qualified jobs. The health status of the refugee population is good, but life satisfaction well below the German population average. Above one-third of the refugees plans to stay in Germany forever or for several years, about one-third aim to leave Germany by the end of war, while 27 percent are not yet certain about their staying perspectives." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
    Keywords: Bundesrepublik Deutschland ; Ukraine ; Aufenthaltsdauer ; IAB-Open-Access-Publikation ; IAB-BiB/FReDA-BAMF-SOEP-Befragung ; berufliche Integration ; Bildungsniveau ; Deutsch als Fremdsprache ; Geflüchtete ; Geschlechterverteilung ; Gesundheitszustand ; Herkunftsland ; Lebenssituation ; Rückwanderungsbereitschaft ; Spracherwerb ; Sprachkenntnisse ; Wanderungsmotivation ; Wohnsituation ; Zufriedenheit ; Zukunftsperspektive ; 2022-2022
    Date: 2022
  14. By: Sommer, Stephan; Konc, Théo; Drews, Stefan
    Abstract: The success of climate policies depends crucially on the dynamics of public support. Using unique longitudinal data from three surveys conducted between 2019 and 2022, we study the variations of public support for carbon pricing in Germany. The period includes two relevant events: the introduction and ramping up of carbon pricing in Germany and the exogenous increase in energy prices following the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Using panel methods, we show that support is very persistent over time and might have increased slightly more recently. However, people who experience high energy costs display a lower support. Regarding revenue use, we detect that social cushioning has become more popular after the introduction of carbon pricing. Our findings suggest that it is crucial to gather enough support before implementing climate policies.
    Keywords: Climate change mitigation, political economy, panel methods
    JEL: D12 H23 Q58
    Date: 2023
  15. By: Fetzer, Thiemo (University of Warwick, CAGE, NIESR and CEPR)
    Abstract: The invasion of Ukraine has led to an unprecedented increase in energy prices in much of Western Europe with policy makers actively intervening in energy markets to cushion the shock. The UK’s policy response stands out: the energy price guarantee (EPG) was entirely untargeted and is, in real terms, much less generous to those living in properties with low energy efficiency. Using granular data and following a documented research approach this paper documents that areas more exposed to the energy price shock saw a notable increase in burglaries and anti-social behaviour: the energy price shock is responsible for a 6 to 10 percent increase in burglaries and a 9 to 24 percent increase in police reported anti-social behaviour between October 2022 to March 2023 inclusive. A quantification of policy alternatives suggests that a more targeted energy support package and/or a more energy efficient housing stock could have resulted in a drastically less pronounced uptick in crime.
    Keywords: crime ; welfare ; instability ; climate crisis ; cost-of-living JEL codes: Q40 ; Q48 ; K42
    Date: 2023
  16. By: Görg, Holger; Jacobs, Anna; Meuchelböck, Saskia
    Abstract: In this paper, we use a novel firm level dataset for Germany to investigate the effect of sanctions on export behaviour and performance of German firms. More specifically, we study the sanctions imposed by the EU against Russia in 2014 in response to the annexation of Crimea and Russia's countermeasures. We find a substantial negative effect on both the extensive and intensive margin of German exports. While the negative effects are strongest for firms exporting products subject to trade restrictions, we provide further evidence on the indirect effects of sanctions. Analysing the impact on broader measures of firm performance, we document that the cost of sanctions is heterogeneous across firms but overall modest. Our results reveal that the negative impact of the shock was concentrated primarily among a small number of firms that were highly dependent on Russia as an export market and those directly affected by the sanctions.
    Keywords: sanctions, foreign policy, trade, firm behaviour, Germany
    JEL: F1 F14 F51 L25
    Date: 2023
  17. By: Pies, Ingo
    Abstract: Dieser Artikel geht aus einer ordonomischen Perspektive vier Fragen nach. Sie lauten: 1. Was genau ist unter öffentlichem Vernunftgebrauch zu verstehen? 2. Warum sollte der öffentliche Vernunftgebrauch möglichst uneingeschränkt sein? 3. Gibt es für Intellektuelle neben Rechten vielleicht auch Pflichten in Zeiten des Krieges? 4. Was bedeutet dies konkret für den Ukraine-Krieg? Wie sehen Beispiele vorbildlicher Pflichterfüllung bzw. eklatanter Pflichtverletzung aus?
    Keywords: Öffentlicher Vernunftgebrauch, Ordonomik, Diskurs, Meinungsfreiheit, public use of reason, ordonomics, discourse, freedom of expression
    Date: 2023
  18. By: Demary, Markus; Taft, Niklas Florian
    Abstract: Der Angriffskrieg Russlands gegen die Ukraine hat die Vulnerabilität der Bundesrepublik Deutschland gegenüber russischen Energieimporten, insbesondere beim Erdgas, aufgezeigt. Durch eine drohende Gasmangellage ist der Gaspreis massiv gestiegen, was vor allem die energieintensiven Unternehmen, die Erdgas für die Stromerzeugung, aber auch für die Erzeugung von Prozesswärme nutzen, vor große Herausforderungen gestellt hat. Wenn Kreditnehmer von stark steigenden Energiekosten betroffen sind, so stellt sich die Frage, inwieweit Risiken für Banken aus der Energiekrise entstehen. Für diese Analyse definieren wir das Maß der Energiekreditlast. Diese Kennzahl verknüpft die Energieintensität einer Branche mit dem Kreditvolumen, das eine Bank oder Bankengruppe in ebendiese Branchen vergeben hat. Anschließend ist es möglich, die Energiekreditlast über die verschiedenen Branchen aufzusummieren. Auf diese Art und Weise erhalten wir eine Kennzahl, welche beschreibt, wie viel Energie hinter dem von einer Bank oder Bankengruppe finanzierten Kreditvolumen steht. Banken oder Bankengruppen mit einer höheren Energiekreditlast tragen damit im Falle einer Energiekrise ein höheres Kreditausfallrisiko in ihren Portfolios verglichen mit einer Bank oder Bankengruppe mit einer niedrigen Energiekreditlast. Die Analyse der Energiekreditlast hat gezeigt, dass die Kreditportfolios der Banken durch ihre Energieabhängigkeit durchaus anfällig für den Energiepreisschock sind. Daraus resultiert aber nicht notwendigerweise eine Warnung für die Finanzmarktstabilität.
    Keywords: Energieversorgung, Kreditgeschäft, Kreditrisiko, Deutschland
    JEL: E44 G21 Q43
    Date: 2023
  19. By: Truger, Achim
    Abstract: Nachdem sich die öffentlichen Haushalte noch nicht vollständig von den Auswirkungen der Coronapandemie erholt hatten, stehen sie seit der durch den russischen Angriffskrieg auf die Ukraine verursachten schweren Energiekrise vor der nächsten großen Herausforderung. Dies gilt auch für den NRW-Landeshaushalt und noch stärker die kommunalen Haushalte in NRW. Zusätzliche Ausgabenbedarfe fallen an, bei gleichzeitigen konjunkturellen Risiken auf der Einnahmenseite. Gleichzeitig wird die geplante Normalisierung der Finanzpolitik nach der Coronapandemie erschwert. Die Diskussionen um den NRW-Landeshaushalt 2023 und die Finanzplanung sind vor diesem Hintergrund zu sehen. Im Folgenden wird in den Abschnitten 2 bis 5 diesbezüglich kurz auf einige wesentliche Punkte eingegangen, die vor allem Risiken der vorgesehenen mittelfristigen Strategie für Landeshaushalt, Investitionen und Kommunen betreffen. In Abschnitt 6 werden vor diesem Hintergrund einige finanzpolitische Handlungsoptionen skizziert.
    Date: 2022
  20. By: Max Sina Knicker; Karl Naumann-Woleske; Jean-Philippe Bouchaud; Francesco Zamponi
    Abstract: The economic shocks that followed the COVID-19 pandemic have brought to light the difficulty, both for academics and policy makers, of describing and predicting the dynamics of inflation. This paper offers an alternative modelling approach. We study the 2020-2023 period within the well-studied Mark-0 Agent-Based Model, in which economic agents act and react according to plausible behavioural rules. We include in particular a mechanism through which trust of economic agents in the Central Bank can de-anchor. We investigate the influence of regulatory policies on inflationary dynamics resulting from three exogenous shocks, calibrated on those that followed the COVID-19 pandemic: a production/consumption shock due to COVID-related lockdowns, a supply-chain shock, and an energy price shock exacerbated by the Russian invasion of Ukraine. By exploring the impact of these shocks under different assumptions about monetary policy efficacy and transmission channels, we review various explanations for the resurgence of inflation in the United States, including demand-pull, cost-push, and profit-driven factors. Our main results are four-fold: (i)~without appropriate policy, the shocked economy can take years to recover, or even tip over into a deep recession; (ii)~the response to policy is non-monotonic, leading to a narrow window of ``optimal'' policy responses due to the trade-off between inflation and unemployment; (iii)~the success of monetary policy in curbing inflation is primarily due to expectation anchoring, rather than to direct impact of interest rate hikes; (iv)~the two most sensitive model parameters are those describing wage and price indexation. The results of our study have implications for Central Bank decision-making, and offers an easy-to-use tool that may help anticipate the consequences of different monetary and fiscal policies.
    Date: 2023–06
  21. By: Arnaud Cedric Kamkoum
    Abstract: This paper examines the monetary policies the Federal Reserve implemented in response to the Global Financial Crisis. More specifically, it analyzes the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing (QE) programs, liquidity facilities, and forward guidance operations conducted from 2007 to 2018. The essay's detailed examination of these policies culminates in an interrupted time-series (ITS) analysis of the long-term causal effects of the QE programs on U.S. inflation and real GDP. The results of this formal design-based natural experimental approach show that the QE operations positively affected U.S. real GDP but did not significantly impact U.S. inflation. Specifically, it is found that, for the 2011Q2-2018Q4 post-QE period, real GDP per capita in the U.S. increased by an average of 231 dollars per quarter relative to how it would have changed had the QE programs not been conducted. Moreover, the results show that, in 2018Q4, ten years after the beginning of the QE programs, real GDP per capita in the U.S. was 14% higher relative to what it would have been during that quarter had there not been the QE programs. These findings contradict Williamson's (2017) informal natural experimental evidence and confirm the conclusions of VARs and new Keynesian DSGE models that the Federal Reserve's QE policies positively affected U.S. real GDP. The results suggest that the current U.S. and worldwide high inflation rates are likely not because of the QE programs implemented in response to the financial crisis that accompanied the COVID-19 pandemic. They are likely due to the unprecedentedly large fiscal stimulus packages used, the peculiar nature of the financial downturn itself, the negative supply shocks from the war in Ukraine, or a combination of these factors. This paper is the first study to measure the macroeconomic effects of QE using a design-based natural experimental approach.
    Date: 2023–05
  22. By: Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens; Groll, Dominik; Hoffmann, Timo; Jannsen, Nils; Kooths, Stefan; Sonnenberg, Nils; Stamer, Vincent
    Abstract: Die deutsche Wirtschaft müht sich aus der Energiekrise. In den vergangenen Monaten haben sich die konjunkturellen Aussichten etwas aufgehellt. Die gesamtwirtschaftliche Produktion wird jedoch nur verhalten zulegen. Insgesamt dürfte das Bruttoinlandsprodukt im laufenden Jahr um 0, 5 Prozent und im Jahr 2024 um 1, 4 Prozent steigen und damit leicht stärker als wir in unserer Winterprognose erwartet hatten (0, 3 Prozent bzw. 1, 3 Prozent). Damit wird die deutsche Wirtschaft tiefe Produktionsrückgänge infolge der Energiekrise voraussichtlich vermeiden. Allerdings haben die wirtschaftlichen Folgen des Krieges in der Ukraine die Erholung von der Pandemie abgewürgt und das Niveau des Bruttoinlands-produkts merklich gedrückt. Der Preisauftrieb wird wohl noch für einige Zeit hartnäckig hoch bleiben. Ähnlich wie im Winter rechnen wir mit Verbraucherpreisanstiegen von 5, 4 Prozent für das laufende Jahr und 2, 1 Prozent für das Jahr 2024. Die hohe Inflation schmälert die verfügbaren Einkommen der privaten Haushalte und führt zu einem Rückgang der privaten Konsumausgaben im laufenden Jahr. Von weltwirtschaftlicher Seite zeichnen sich keine größeren Impulse ab. Allerdings können sich die Unter-nehmen im Verarbeitenden Gewerbe angesichts nachlassender Lieferengpässe daran machen, ihre zu-vor angehäuften Auftragsbestände abzuarbeiten, auch wenn die nach wie vor hohen Energiepreise die energieintensiven Branchen belasten. Die Bauinvestitionen werden aufgrund der schlechteren Finanzierungsbedingungen deutlich sinken. Der Arbeitsmarkt bleibt trotz der wirtschaftlichen Schwächephase robust. Vielmehr zeigen sich zunehmend die Folgen des demographischen Wandels: In den kommen-den Jahren wird die Erwerbstätigkeit ihren Zenit überschreiten. Der massive Fachkräftemangel wird in Anbetracht der hohen Inflation zu kräftigen Lohnsteigerungen führen. Aufgrund sprudelnder Einnahmen und des hohen Preisauftriebs dürfte das öffentliche Defizit in Relation zum nominalen Bruttoinlandsprodukt von 2, 6 Prozent im Jahr 2022 auf 1, 4 Prozent im Jahr 2024 sinken. Der Schuldenstand wird in diesem Zeitraum wohl von 66, 4 Prozent auf 63, 5 Prozent zurückgehen.
    Date: 2023
  23. By: Brian Euijin Lee (Korea Baptist Theological University, South Korea)
    Abstract: Goryeoins are ethnic Koreans who settled across Eurasia to move away from persecution and oppression in the Korean peninsula. Approximately 1, 200 Goryeoins entered Korea to escape the Ukrainian War. This study aimed to analyze the metrics of psychological health (i.e., depression, anxiety, quality of life, and ethnic identity) of Goryeoin adolescents and to identify factors affecting their mental health. We compiled 120 questions based on six clinically used assessment tools, i.e., KIDSCREEN-52-HRQOL, RSES, PHQ-9, GAD-7, PC-PTSD-5, and MEIM. A total of 150 Korean adolescents and 130 Ukrainian Korean adolescents were included. The score of each subject was calculated in terms of family, friends, school life satisfaction, psychological health, ethnic identity, bullying, and trauma factors between the two groups, Goryeoin and Korean adolescents. Statistical analysis was performed using students’ t-tests for continuous variables that satisfied the normality assumption. For variables that did not satisfy the normality assumption, Mann-Whitney U test was performed. This research was a first attempt to compare and identify factors for mental health between Korean and Goyeoin adolescents. We expect the results of this study to be used as a guide for policy decision making.
    Keywords: Ukrainian Goryeoin, mental health, adolescents
    Date: 2023–03
  24. By: Schulze, Günther G.; Zakharov, Nikita
    Abstract: We analyze media repression in Putin's Russia (2004-2019), a smart dictatorship that mimics democratic institutions, notably relatively free elections, and a relatively free press. Drawing on a unique granular dataset on journalist harassment and the pre-determined, staggered timing of local elections, we find evidence of strong political cycles of media repression. This media repression ahead of elections leads to a more favorable tonality of the news coverage of incumbents. Free press and free elections are temporally decoupled, thus disallowing them to work as effective accountability mechanisms. This secures dictator's power while upholding an image of competence and democratic rule.
    Keywords: Authoritarian government, smart dictatorships, media repression, political election cycles, media tonality
    JEL: D72 H10 P43
    Date: 2023
  25. By: Ghauri, Pervez N. (Birmingham Business School); Oxelheim, Lars (Research Institute of Industrial Economics (IFN)); Randøy, Trond (Copenhagen Business School (CBS))
    Abstract: The paper acknowledges the changed geopolitical map and the new adjacent political mindset and examines the current state of the relationship between MNEs and governments/central banks. The focus is on the implications of these changes for business policy in a sustainable finance perspective. Our analysis reveals that the increased tensions in the post-financial crisis of 2008/2009, the ultra-low interest rates during the Pandemic, and development in geopolitics post-Ukraine, contribute to reducing the assumptions for a well-functioning global value chain. These tensions all need to be addressed by careful adaptation of company strategies and government policies. Five corporate strategies for the reorganization are discussed. Moreover, on the positive side the reorganization of the global value chain provides an opportunity to meet the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) (United Nations, 2015). The reorganization calls for sustainable financial decisions that internalize environmental, social, and governance (ESG) considerations. The paper addresses this call and explores the implications for the practice of sustainable finance in a MNE that considers a reorganization of its global logistic chain because of increased frictions in crossing national borders.
    Keywords: Sustainable finance; ESG; Protectionism; Globalization; State aid; Investment patterns; Global value chain
    JEL: D25 E22 E24 E58 E62 F21 F23 L22
    Date: 2023–05–30
  26. By: Bronwen Manby
    Abstract: This paper considers decolonisation as a turning point, or moment of change, in the history of the legal regulation of belonging and membership, with a particular focus on Africa. The papercompares the evolution of concepts of citizenship when African states gained independence with other decolonisations—of the Americas, South Asia, and former Soviet Union. It explores the manysimilarities between Africa and other post-colonial geographies, especially the frequent resilience of colonial institutions and the resentment of those whose presence in a territory is the result ofpopulation movements within the former empires. Yet it also shows how the particular experience of European imperial oppression in Africa created continental dynamics in the imagination and regulation of citizenship that are different from other regions. Finally, however, the paper warns against overemphasizing the differences from the debates over citizenship in Europe. Europe, after all, is also a post-colonial space: European borders established at the break-up of the Austro-Hungarian and Russian empires were equally viewed as artificial; while the legacy of European imperialism lives on in contemporary European immigration and citizenship policies. Although the challenges of imagining the community in Africa’s post-independence states are obvious, the boundaries of community are as mutable as they are in other continents, and concepts of citizenship thus not so dissimilar to those in Europe or elsewhere.
    Keywords: Citizenship, decolonisation, Africa, borders
    Date: 2023–01
  27. By: Chorzempa, Martin; von Daniels, Laura
    Abstract: Wie EU-Kommissionspräsidentin von der Leyen bei ihrem Besuch im Weißen Haus ankündigte, will die EU ihre Exportkontrollen für Dual-Use-Produkte und neue Technologien erneuern und enger mit US-Maßnahmen abstimmen. Da die EU-Staaten China zunehmend als sicherheitspolitische Bedrohung wahrnehmen, wäre die Anwendung von Exportkontrollen gegenüber Peking folgerichtig. Die von der Biden-Regierung im Oktober 2022 gegenüber China erlassenen Executive Orders für den Handel mit leistungsstarken Halbleiterchips, deren Produktionsmaschinen sowie mit hochleistungsfähigen Computern wirken sich bereits auf die EU aus. Um Rechtssicherheit für europäische Unternehmen zu schaffen, sollten die EU-Mitgliedstaaten schnell entscheiden, wie umfassend sie eigene Ausfuhrkontrollen modernisieren und ausweiten wollen. Dazu gehört auch eine Strategie, um gemeinsam mit anderen Staaten das multilaterale Wassenaar-Arrangement zumindest zeitweise zu ersetzen.
    Keywords: USA, China, Russland, Exportkontrolle, Handelsbeschränkungen, Endverbleibskontrolle, Halbleiter, Chips, Decoupling, foundational technologies, Foreign Direct Product Rule, FDPR, denial order, Dual-Use, entity list, Huawei, ZTE, Fujian Jinhua, Micron, Wassenaar-Abkommen
    Date: 2023
  28. By: Assylbekova Marziya (L.N. Gumilyov Eurasian National University, Kazakhstan); Atemova Kalipa (L.N. Gumilyov Eurasian National University, Kazakhstan); Baltabayeva Zhaniyat (L.N. Gumilyov Eurasian National University, Kazakhstan); Muhambek Dilnur (L.N. Gumilyov Eurasian National University, Kazakhstan)
    Abstract: Bullying often involves harm to others, especially adolescents. The purpose of this study is to assess the prevalence of bullying, identify risk factors, and assess the relationship between bullying and the psychological status of adolescents who face this problem in the region of Kazakhstan. The research was conducted on 224 students between the ages of 11 and 16 using an online survey in a validated Google Form to investigate the prevalence and risk factors of bullying, as well as questionnaires to assess the psychological consequences of bullying. In response to the question, Where is bullying most common?, 42.8% of the participants answered “on social networks, †33.5% answered “in the yard, on the street, †and 23.7% answered “at school.†About 20% of the participants spent more than 12 hours on the Internet every day, and the overall estimated prevalence of bullying and cyberbullying was 42.8%. In addition, 26.3% of the participants had a significant deterioration in academic performance due to cyberbullying. Approximately 20% of all participants considered dropping out of school, 19.7% considered stopping Internet use, and 21.1% considered harming themselves as a result of bullying. Furthermore, 75% of schoolchildren were victims of bullying. Unfortunately, schools are not entirely safe environments for children. Schoolchildren talked about the negative effects of bullying, negative childhood experiences, and trauma. Currently, researchers focus on "bullying" and its psychological consequences. Some researchers have identified characteristics of bullying victims, such as low self-esteem, poor social connection, aggression, anxiety, and complicated family relationships.
    Keywords: Bullying, cyberbullying, adolescents, psychological consequences, public health, Kazakhstan
    Date: 2023–04
  29. By: Romain Feydel (CREOP - Centre de Recherches sur l'Entreprise, les Organisations et le Patrimoine - GIO - Gouvernance des Institutions et des Organisations - UNILIM - Université de Limoges)
    Abstract: Following the Ukrainian conflict, which affects peace on the European continent as well as the stability of the financial markets, the rise in the cost of energy is causing a new recession in the member countries of the European Union. Publicly listed companies fear the worst. Their leaders seek to avoid resorting to growing indebtedness. In order to stem this scourge which is gradually poisoning European regulated markets, a new legal structure has just appeared: equitization.
    Abstract: Faisant suite au conflit ukrainien qui affecte la paix sur le continent européen ainsi que la stabilité des marchés financiers, la hausse du coût de l'énergie engendre une nouvelle entrée en récession des pays membres de l'Union européenne. Les sociétés cotées en bourse craignent le pire. Leurs dirigeants cherchent à éviter de recourir à un endettement croissant. Afin d'endiguer ce fléau gangrénant peu à peu les marchés réglementés européens, un nouveau montage juridique vient de faire son apparition : l'equitization.
    Keywords: ingénierie financière, equitization, droit financier et boursier, montage juridique et financier
    Date: 2023
  30. By: International Monetary Fund
    Abstract: The report reviews the existing communication framework of Bank of Mongolia and identifies several areas where Bank of Mongolia could enhance the effectiveness of its communications. The analysis focuses on the assessment of the monetary and financial policy communications as well as the evaluation of the internal organization of the Bank of Mongolia’s communication function. The organizational arrangements are reviewed in terms of structure, resources, and procedures. The report also highlights the importance of establishing several pre-conditions for effective central bank communications, which include the presence of sound legal and normative frameworks particularly in relation to the mandate and independence of the central bank.
    Date: 2023–05–26

General information on the NEP project can be found at For comments please write to the director of NEP, Marco Novarese at <>. Put “NEP” in the subject, otherwise your mail may be rejected.
NEP’s infrastructure is sponsored by the School of Economics and Finance of Massey University in New Zealand.