nep-cis New Economics Papers
on Confederation of Independent States
Issue of 2023‒06‒19
29 papers chosen by

  1. The role and functions of the centre of government in the European Neighbourhood Policy East region By Andrew Davies; Péter Vági
  2. NATO Defense Spending in 2023: Implications One Year After Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine By Florian Dorn; Niklas Potrafke; Marcel Schlepper
  3. MATS Report: "Trade under War Conditions. Insecurity Decreases Ukrainian Revenues and Market Shares" By Häberli, Christian; Kostetsky, Bogdan
  4. The Effects of Rising Prices on Corn Production in Western African Countries By Rogna, Marco
  5. Catching-up and Falling Behind: Russian Economic Growth, 1960s-1880s By Stephen Broadberry; Elena Korchmina
  6. Does flexibility of biofuel mandates have the ability to mitigate price spikes? Modelling potential biofuel production reductions in the context of the recent invasion of Ukraine By Dyer, Richard; Davies, Grant
  7. United States and China on a collision course: The importance of domestic politics for the bilateral relationship By Maull, Hanns W.; Stanzel, Angela; Thimm, Johannes
  8. Solomon Islands: 2023 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; and Staff Report By International Monetary Fund
  9. Making sense of multi-level and multi-actor governance of recovery in Ukraine By Oksana Udovyk; Ievgen Kylymnyk; Daniel Cuesta-Delgado; Guillermo Palau Salvador
  10. Cash IS king! – Securing liquidity in economic crisis By Warning, Hans Olaf; Grömling, Michael; Schulke, Arne
  11. О проекте для НОЦ «Север» «Человеческий капитал и социальная инфраструктура арктических территорий вблизи акватории СМП» By Pitukhina, Maria; Maximova, Daryana; Belykh, Anastasia
  12. Analysis of Trade Pattern Between the EAEU and South Korea By Podoba, Zoia
  13. The Right Tool for the Job? Mortgage Distress and Personal Insolvency during the European Debt Crisis By Mr. Wolfgang Bergthaler; Jose M Garrido; Anjum Rosha
  14. Using neural networks to predict the value of stocks based on news data By Borisenko Georgy
  15. How to Prevent Yellow Vests? Evaluating Preferences for a Carbon Tax with a Discrete Choice Experiment By Jakub Sokołowski; Piotr Lewandowski; Jan Frankowski
  16. German Economy in Spring 2023: Economy is stabilizing but little momentum going forward By Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens; Groll, Dominik; Hoffmann, Timo; Jannsen, Nils; Kooths, Stefan; Sonnenberg, Nils; Stamer, Vincent
  17. La Turquie soutient-elle le développement en Afrique de l'Ouest ? L'exemple du Nigeria, du Ghana et de la Côte d'Ivoire By Kohnert, Dirk
  18. An resilience analysis of the contraction of the accommodation and food service on the Scottish food industry By Dogbe, Wisdom
  19. The spectre of financial dominance in the eurozone By BENIGNO, Pierpaolo; CANOFARI, Paola; DI BARTOLOMEO, Giovanni; MESSORI, Marcello
  20. Epidemiology Analysis of Caesarean Section in Central, Eastern and Southeastern European Countries By Chellai, Fatih
  21. The Federal Reserve’s Response to the Global Financial Crisis and Its Long-Term Impact: An Interrupted Time-Series Natural Experimental Analysis By KAMKOUM, Arnaud Cedric
  22. Assessing the prospects of the Sustainable Farming Scheme in Wales, fit for success or of limited relevance? By Lenormand, Théo; Janet, Dwyer; Devienne, Sophie
  23. Is Poland on track to becoming another France? How to avoid social conflicts Sparked by a country’s climate policy By Jakub Soko³owski; Jan Frankowski
  24. Accountability and transparency through water-energy-food nexus accounting in Central Asia [Abstract only]. By Siegfried, T.; Anarbekov, Oyture; Ragettli, S.
  25. Remittances and Social Safety Nets During COVID-19: Evidence From Georgia and the Kyrgyz Republic By Nordine Abidi; Mehdi Akhbari; Bashar Hlayhel; Sahra Sakha
  26. Préface. L'entrepreneur et le politique dans la Russie Post-soviétique. Une analyse territoriale des dynamiques d'innovation de Guillem Achemann By François Facchini
  27. Trade-offs between international migration and agricultural commercialization: evidence frrom Kyrgyzstan By Kimsanova, Barchynai; Sanaev, Golib; Herzfeld, Thomas
  28. Energieversorgungssicherheit als Gemeinwohl: Auswirkungen des Instrumentes Ministererlaubnis By Budzinski, Oliver; Stöhr, Annika
  29. Brassens.Liberté, libertés By Christian Saad

  1. By: Andrew Davies; Péter Vági
    Abstract: The institutions that make up the centre of government (CoG) play a crucial role in the policymaking process and help to ensure that government decisions are timely, evidence-informed, strategic and consistent. Despite this prominent role, the CoG often has the reputation of being somewhat opaque in terms of its structure and ways of working. This report presents an overview of the role and functions of the CoG of five European Neighbourhood Policy East countries – Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, the Republic of Moldova and Ukraine – from a comparative perspective, both with respect to each other and in comparison with CoGs in OECD and EU countries. The report explores the CoG’s role in policy co-ordination, how it supports quality decision making, its contribution to strategic planning and its role in managing European integration issues. The report highlights strengths and challenges in the ways that the CoG institutions operate in the five countries and suggests areas for which policy dialogue and exchange of experience with OECD and EU Members could help to enhance outcomes.
    Keywords: armenia, azerbaijan, centre of government, european integration, european neighbourhood east, georgia, government, government decision making, institutions, policy co-ordination, policymaking, republic of moldova, strategic planning, ukraine
    Date: 2023–05–25
  2. By: Florian Dorn; Niklas Potrafke; Marcel Schlepper
    Abstract: War is raging close to NATO's Eastern border. Russia has attacked Ukraine and threatens those states that in the past had been part of Moscow's sphere of influence. Many of them are now member states of NATO. As a collective defense alliance, this poses a threat to all NATO members. Since the ability to defend against an aggressor does not come for free, defense spending will be on the agenda at the NATO Summit in Vilnius in July 2023. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg has already expressed his expectation that all member states no longer see the 2% target as a mere ambition, but as the floor for their future defense spending. This paper presents first results for the expected defense spending of the 30 NATO members and the candidate country Sweden in 2023.
    Date: 2023
  3. By: Häberli, Christian; Kostetsky, Bogdan
    Abstract: The latest report on "Repairing Broken Food Trade Routes Ukraine – Africa” covers: handicaps of Ukrainian grain production, caused by the full scale invasion causes, circumstances and impact of restrictions of grain imports from Ukraine risk of loss of the MENA destination markets for Ukrainian grains This project has received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme “Making Agricultural Trade Sustainable” (MATS) programme ( The role of MATS/WTI in this programme is to identify and explore “broken” Ukrainian - African food trade routes due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Starting with a food trade flow chart pre- and post-24 February 2022, it will assess, first, whether Ukrainian (or African) traders can again supply these products (Output 1). Failing that, whether the new EU-financed “Crisis Management” (or another) programme can possibly make up for lost Ukrainian agrifood exports (Output 2). It will also identify alternative exporters (if any) which might already have filled in agrifood demand in Africa (Output 3). Importantly, the Project also looks at the potential effect of these developments on competing farm production in Africa (Output 4). For further information and/or offer to assist in project implementation, please write to Christian Häberli ( or to Bogdan Kostetsky (
    Date: 2023–06–06
  4. By: Rogna, Marco
    Abstract: The intensification of the Russo–Ukrainian war started in February 2022 with the Russian invasion of Ukraine has generated a dramatic increase in the price of several goods. In particular, energy, gas and oil have been the most interested by this spike in prices, followed by several agricultural commodities. Fertilizers, whose production is energy intensive and/or directly dependent from oil derivatives, have also experienced a sharp increase in prices. This has risen concerns for food insecure countries, particularly in Africa, since, besides a lower possibility to purchase food commodities on the international market, they will likely decrease their own production due to a lower utilization of fertilizers. Quantifying this potential decrease in agricultural production is important in order to fully assess their vulnerability in terms of food security. The present paper tries to accomplish this task by forecasting the change in maize production in 2022 and 2023 compared to 2021 in seven Western African countries. We find an overall decline in maize production of 10% circa in both years with a strong heterogeneity among countries. Trivial users of fertilizers, such as Niger, experience a very modest decline in production (less than 2%) whereas others, such as Benin and Togo, have a double digit decline: approximately 13% the former and 32% the latter.
    Keywords: Food Security and Poverty, Crop Production/Industries
    Date: 2023–03
  5. By: Stephen Broadberry; Elena Korchmina
    Abstract: This paper provides decadal estimates of GDP per capita for the Russian Empire from the 1690s to the 1880s. GDP per capita in the 1880s was barely 3 per cent higher than in the 1690s, but this was not the result of continuous stagnation. Rather, positive growth during the first half of the eighteenth century was followed by negative growth between the 1760s and 1800s and stagnation from the 1800s to the 1880s. The main driver of this variation in GDP per capita was the relationship between population and land, with land per capita increasing to the 1760s, then declining to the 1800s and staying stable during the nineteenth century. This suggests that serfdom may not have been as strong a barrier to eighteenth century growth as has often been suggested, nor its abolition in 1861 as significant for subsequent growth. Although large-scale industry grew more rapidly than the rest of the economy, particularly after Peter the Great’s reforms in the early eighteenth century, this had only a minor effect on the economy as a whole, as it was starting from a very low base and still only accounted for 10 per cent of GDP by the 1880s. Russian economic growth before the 1760s resulted in catching-up on northwest Europe, but this was followed by a period of relative decline, leaving mid-nineteenth century Russia further behind than at the beginning of the eighteenth century.
    Date: 2022–06–30
  6. By: Dyer, Richard; Davies, Grant
    Abstract: This paper looks at how reducing biofuel production by introducing flexibility to mandates can have a potentially mitigating effect on price spikes. In particular we look at the recent price spike caused by the invasion of Ukraine and the consequent impact on global agricultural impacts. We model scenarios of reduced biofuel use in a global agricultural market model to see the impact on prices of the major cereals and oilseeds. A modest reduction of 10% of the use of cereals in biofuels can have a significant impact on the magnitude of the price spike for cereals and in particular maize. The modelled price spike in maize is 37% smaller after a 10% reduction in biofuel production in G7 countries. Results for wheat and vegetable oils are smaller but still significant at 11% and 27% respectively. This modelling demonstrates the importance of biofuel mandates in global agricultural markets and consequently their impact on global food security.
    Keywords: Resource /Energy Economics and Policy, Demand and Price Analysis
    Date: 2023–03
  7. By: Maull, Hanns W.; Stanzel, Angela; Thimm, Johannes
    Abstract: No other bilateral relationship has comparable significance for the future of the international order as that between the United States and the People's Republic of China.Domestic political and social structural factors have a significant influence on the conflict behaviour of the two states. These factors are contributing towards the deterioration of the bilateral relationship and making it crisis-prone. Vulnerabilities arise from the interdependencies between the two societies and economies. An awareness of this fact can provide an incentive for cooperation. Efforts made to avoid the risk of escalation can also promote cooperation. Both states are dependent on a functioning international order. However, this insight is all too easily overshadowed by the conflictual aspects of the bilateral relationship. This is the task - and at the same time an opportunity - for German and European policy, which should strengthen European participation in world governance to gain more weight and exert a moderating influence on China and America.
    Keywords: US, China, Russia, Ukraine war, Xi Jinping, Joe Biden, bilateral relationship, international order, Covid pandemic, CHIPS and Science Act, competition, industry, economic espionage, research and development, semiconductors
    Date: 2023
  8. By: International Monetary Fund
    Abstract: The economy is recovering from the shocks of civil unrest in November 2021 and a local outbreak of COVID-19 in early 2022, driven by increasing activity after the reopening of the border and preparation for the 2023 Pacific Games. But the recovery has been fragile, as Russia’s war in Ukraine has led to a decline in the terms of trade and rising inflation. A large pipeline of infrastructure projects financed by concessional borrowing is expected to support medium-term growth and help reduce a large infrastructure gap. But the country’s external position is projected to significantly weaken because of these projects and declining log exports, with reserve coverage declining as a result. This outlook highlights the pressing needs for reform to improve public investment management, as well as to diversify the economy and enhance its competitiveness.
    Date: 2023–05–12
  9. By: Oksana Udovyk (INGENIO (CSIC-UPV), Universidad Politécnica de Valencia); Ievgen Kylymnyk (Accelerator Lab, UNDP Ukraine); Daniel Cuesta-Delgado (INGENIO (CSIC-UPV), Universidad Politécnica de Valencia); Guillermo Palau Salvador (INGENIO (CSIC-UPV), Universidad Politécnica de Valencia)
    Abstract: The article sheds light on the complex recovery governance in Ukraine by providing a snapshot of the evolving national recovery actors’ networks and examining it through a multi-level governance framework. It highlights the ambiguity of the multi-level recovery governance structure in Ukraine, which shows characteristics of decentralization while representing a rather centralized machine; tend to be multi-actor, but also leave some groups of actors behind. The article offers suggestions for improvements but concludes that a bottom-up recovery process that leverages the decentralization potential and multi-actor energy is needed to benefit the current system constellations. In general, the article provides a starting point for further research and analysis to deepen our understanding of emerging Ukraine’s recovery governance landscape.
    Keywords: decentralization, social-network analysis, national recovery plan, post-conflict reconstruction
    Date: 2023–05
  10. By: Warning, Hans Olaf; Grömling, Michael; Schulke, Arne
    Abstract: The beginning of the year 2023 is marked by continued economic instability, some of it still lingering from economic ramifications of the COVID-19 pandemic, some brought on by the war in Ukraine, high energy prices and other more regional factors. For businesses of all shapes and sizes, this poses major challenges in terms of predicting demand, managing performance and supply chains, and ensuring financial stability at the same time - in an environment of steeply declining interest rates and a looming shortage of credit supply. In four parts grouped along the supply chain and the inverse chain of cash movements within a company, this paper seeks to make a case for the importance of liquidity management as a general management discipline rather than a specialized Accounting function. It promotes a broader understanding of the discipline and its rooting in a cross-functional manner in the hearts and minds of managerial staff throughout the entire organization.
    Keywords: Working capital, cash management, liquidity expansion
    JEL: M10 M19 R41
    Date: 2023
  11. By: Pitukhina, Maria; Maximova, Daryana; Belykh, Anastasia
    Abstract: В 2022 году СВФУ им. Аммосова и Петрозаводский государственный университет – члены недавно созданного консорциума РАКАИ (Российско-азиатского консорциума арктических исследований) направили в НОЦ «Север» проектную заявку на тему «Человеческий капитал и социальная инфраструктура арктических территорий вблизи акватории СМП». В рамках проекта предполагается комплексное социально-экономическое исследование 19-ти арктических территорий акватории Северного морского транспортного коридора с применением средств визуализации и картографирования на инновационной платформе Microsoft Power BI. In 2022 the North-Eastern Federal University by M. Ammosov and Petrozavodsk State University – are the two members of a newly established RACAI (Russian-Asian Consortium for Arctic Research) have submitted a project proposal entitled "Human Capital and Social Infrastructure of Arctic Territories next to the Northern Sea Route Water Area". The project envisages a comprehensive socio-economic study of 19 Arctic territories of the Northern Sea Route applying both visualisation and mapping tools on innovative Microsoft Power BI platform.
    Keywords: человеческий капитал; Арктика; Северный морской транспортный коридор (СМТК)
    JEL: J11 R23
    Date: 2023–05–04
  12. By: Podoba, Zoia (Petersburg Polytechnic University)
    Abstract: The Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) is a relatively newly-formed regional integration bloc. It evolved on the basis of the Customs Union of Russia, Kazakhstan, and Belarus in 2015 with Armenia and Kyrgyzstan joining the agreement. The foreign economic aspirations of the EAEU as a single market, in the context of tense relations with Western partners, are turned towards Asian countries. The pivot to the East is supported by the ideological concept of “Greater Eurasia” (sometimes translated as “Big Eurasia”), which implies more extensive cooperation with the economies of Central, East, and South Asia. At a time when political efforts to bring the Union and Korea closer together have been put on hold, the paper aims to provide a comprehensive description of the bilateral merchandise trade pattern between the EAEU and the Republic of Korea to verify if statistical evidence on bilateral trade provides ground for the development of guiding actual policy deliberations in the future. Trade Intensity Index (TII), the sectoral bilateral coefficient of revealed comparative advantages, and the standard Grubel-Lloyd index have been used in order to analyze the bilateral trade between the EAEU and the Republic of Korea.
    Keywords: Analysis of Trade Pattern; EAEU and South Korea
    Date: 2023–05–09
  13. By: Mr. Wolfgang Bergthaler; Jose M Garrido; Anjum Rosha
    Abstract: The European debt crisis in the early to mid 2010s brought to the fore the issue of household debt distress: in the countries affected, widespread over-indebdtedness resulted in serious financial and social challenges. The crisis was primarily a mortgage debt crisis, but in several cases, the legal response was based on the introduction of personal insolvency procedures. This paper examines the challenges in designing and implementing legal reforms in this area to promote a better understanding of the main considerations in resolving personal insolvency and distressed mortgage debt in the context of crises. Lessons from the European crisis may prove valuable when dealing with the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine on household debt distress.
    Keywords: consumer insolvency; household debt; mortgage debt; consumer debt
    Date: 2023–05–05
  14. By: Borisenko Georgy (Department of Economics, Lomonosov Moscow State University)
    Abstract: This paper is devoted to forecasting the value of shares of large Russian companies traded on the Moscow Stock Exchange based on news. Neural networks transformers are used as models for forecasting. Moreover, classical machine learning methods are also involved in the analysis for comparison with the neural network approach. Major Russian news sources and Telegram channels are used as news data. Models trained on different sources are also compared. As a result of the study, it was found that classical machine learning methods cope better with this task in the general case, but neural networks also show good quality. The paper also provides recommendations on the choice of a news source and the choice of a task statement.
    Keywords: shape price, news, network approach, Telegr?m
    JEL: C63 G14
    Date: 2023–05
  15. By: Jakub Sokołowski; Piotr Lewandowski; Jan Frankowski
    Abstract: Increasing climate policy ambitions create tensions in societies with low trust and social divisions, as shown by the Yellow Vests movement that successfully opposed a carbon tax in France. We study preferences for policies to achieve energy security and climate change mitigation goals in the context of the energy crisis caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine. We conducted a discrete choice experiment on a representative sample of 10, 000 people in Poland, a country heavily dependent on fossil fuels. Using a willingness-to-pay approach, we find a strong aversion to a carbon tax that is only moderately alleviated by redistribution policies. Income and age matter for preferences regarding climate and energy. People with low incomes (bottom quartile) value achieving climate change (15%) and energy security (10%) goals less than the general population (17% and 14% willingness to pay, respectively). Younger people (aged 18-34) are willing to sacrifice more income to mitigate climate change than people aged 55 or more (28% vs. 12%) but are less willing to forego income (11% vs. 16%) to reduce fuel imports from Russia. Consequently, we quantify the heterogeneity of preferences regarding redistribution measures and evaluate their efficiency, providing an example of using discrete choice experiments to mitigate the risks of social tensions due to introducing a carbon tax.
    Keywords: carbon tax, redistribution, climate change, discrete choice experiment, willingness to pay
    JEL: H23 D74 Q41 Q54
    Date: 2023–04
  16. By: Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens; Groll, Dominik; Hoffmann, Timo; Jannsen, Nils; Kooths, Stefan; Sonnenberg, Nils; Stamer, Vincent
    Abstract: The German economy is working its way out of the energy crisis. In recent months, the economic outlook has improved somewhat. However, overall economic production will increase only moderately. GDP is expected to increase by 0.5 percent in the current year and by 1.4 percent in 2024, slightly more than we had expected in our winter forecast (0.3 percent and 1.3 percent, respectively). The German economy, thus, seems to avoid a deep contraction as a result of the energy crisis. However, the economic consequences of the war in Ukraine have slowed down the recovery from the pandemic and depressed the level of GDP. Inflation is likely to remain stubbornly high for some time. Similar to our winter forecast, we expect consumer prices to increase by 5.4 percent in the current year and 2.1 percent in 2024. High inflation reduces the disposable income of private households and leads to a decline in private consumption in this year. No major impulses are emerging from the global economy. However, as supply bottlenecks ease, companies in the manufacturing industry can start to work off their previously accumulated order backlogs, even if energy-intensive industries are still suffering from high energy prices. Construction investment will decline significantly due to the worsening financial conditions. The labour market remains robust despite slow GDP growth. On the contrary, the consequences of demographic change are becoming increasingly apparent: In the next years, employment will pass its peak. The massive shortage of skilled workers will lead to strong wage increases in times of high inflation. Due to strongly increasing revenues and high inflation, the public deficit relative to nominal GDP is expected to fall from 2.6 per cent in 2022 to 1.4 per cent in 2024. The debt ratio is expected to decline from 66.4 per cent to 63.5 per cent during this period.
    Keywords: business cycle forecast, stabilization policy, leading indicators, outlook
    Date: 2023
  17. By: Kohnert, Dirk
    Abstract: In the 19th and 20th centuries, Turkey considered only North Africa a substantial part of the Ottoman Empire and neglected sub-Saharan Africa unless vital interests were at stake. However, the apathy of successive Turkish governments changed with the 1998 "Africa Action Plan". Since then, the Turkish state has intensified its diplomatic, political, economic and cultural interactions with sub-Saharan Africa. Turkish-African relations received a further boost when Ankara declared 2005 the "Year of Africa". Although the predominantly Muslim region of North Africa is the focus of Turkish foreign policy due to their shared history, the importance of Sub-Saharan Africa has also increased due to the growing demand for military and medical supplies. Since 2005, Ankara promoted state-building in sub-Saharan Africa, although it does not follow Western democratization policies. Turkey's growing economic, political and security involvement in Africa aims to open new markets for its manufactured goods, particularly its defence and security industries. Presenting itself as a relevant regional power without colonial ballast, Turkey sets itself apart from traditional Western players on the continent. Turkey's engagement in sub-Saharan Africa differed markedly from that of other emerging powers such as Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. While Ankara shared the disregard for Western sanctions due to BRICS members' democratic deficits, it went beyond traditional state-to-state relations and increasingly relied on cooperation with non-state actors. African partners value Turkish products and expertise. In addition, Ankara has taken a coordinated approach to working with African states and leaders, avoiding entanglements with international organizations or other alliances, as in Somalia and Kenya, but more recently in much of East, South and West Africa. This has been demonstrated using the example of the three West African countries Nigeria, Ghana and Ivory Coast.
    Keywords: Turquie; Afrique subsaharienne; Afrique de l'Ouest; Nigeria; Ghana; Côte d'Ivoire; commerce international; migration; développement durable; démocratisation; postcolonialisme; nationalisme; BRICS; Chine; France; Grande-Bretagne; aide au développement; ONG; Études africaines
    JEL: E26 F22 F24 F35 F52 F54 F63 I31 J46 J61 L31 N14 N17 N37 N47 O17 O35 O55 Z13
    Date: 2023–05–03
  18. By: Dogbe, Wisdom
    Abstract: The Scottish economy, such as the United Kingdom (UK) economy, has been exposed to several adverse shocks over the past 5 years. Examples of these are the effect of the UK exiting the European Union (Brexit), the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and more recently the Russia-Ukraine war, which can result in adverse direct and indirect economic losses across various sectors of the economy. The purpose of this paper is threefold: (1) to explore the degree of resilience of the Scottish food and drinks sector, (2) to estimate the effects on interconnected sectors of the economy; and (3) to estimate the economic losses which is the financial value associated with the reduction in output. For this analysis, the study relied on the Dynamic Inoperability Input-Output Model (DIIM). The results indicate that the accommodation and food service sector was the most affect by the covid-19 pandemic lockdown contracting by about 60 per cent having a cascading effect on the remaining 17 sectors of the economy. The Processed and preserved fish, fruits and vegetable sector is the least resilient whilst Preserved meat and meat products sector is the most resilient to final demand disruption in the accommodation and food service sector. The least economically affected sector was the other food products sector whilst the other services sector had the highest economic loss. Despite the fact that the soft drinks sector had a slow recovery rate, economic losses were lower compared to the agricultural, fishery and forestry sector. From the policy perspective, stakeholders in the accommodation and food service sector should re-examine the sector and develop capacity against future pandemics. In addition, it is important for economic sectors to collaborate either vertically or horizontally by sharing information and risk to reduce the burden of future disruptions. Finally, the most vulnerable sector of the economy i.e. other services sector should form a major part of government policy decision-making when planning against future pandemics.
    Keywords: Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods
    Date: 2023–03
  19. By: BENIGNO, Pierpaolo; CANOFARI, Paola; DI BARTOLOMEO, Giovanni; MESSORI, Marcello
    Abstract: Differently from previous crises, the European institutions responded promptly to the Covid-19 pandemic by implementing an appropriate policy mix. However, this policy mix has proven to be insufficient for reducing the risks of financial instability in the European Union due to the temporary horizon of the centralised fiscal policy and the persistence of adverse shocks. In fact, the impact of the pandemic was exacerbated by the dramatic consequences of the war in Ukraine. The possible inefficiencies in implementing the Next Generation-EU (NG-EU) and an inadequate response to the war’s shock could trigger, at best, the revival of financial and fiscal dominance in the euro-area economies. However, by using a simple model referred to the post-pandemic and war period, we show that the overburdening of the European Central Bank’s role would come with high costs. Hence, we argue that it is necessary to pursue sustainable development based on the successful implementation of the NG-EU and the related transformation of the one-shot centralised fiscal policy into a recurrent policy tool.
    Keywords: Fiscal dominance, Financial dominance, ECB, Monetary policy
    JEL: E31 E51 E58
    Date: 2023–03
  20. By: Chellai, Fatih
    Abstract: The increase in caesarean section (CS) rates across countries has caused several health, social, and economic problems. The objectives are to estimate the prevalence and trend of caesarian sections and to investigate the determinants of such a dynamic. Secondary data from multiple indicator cluster surveys (MICS) were used for a set of countries in Central, Eastern, and Southeastern Europe. A meta-analysis was performed and multivariable logistic models were fitted. The findings showed high heterogeneity of CS rates among the study countries, with rates ranging from 11.1% in Ukraine to 40.4% in the Republic of Macedonia. In terms of the dynamics of C-section use over time, the results showed, within countries, that the rates are increasing sharply for all women. The inequalities between subgroups in these countries have been revealed, notably by area and region. Except for mother’s age and baby size at birth (for specific countries), univariate and multivariate logistic regression revealed that none of the determinants were significantly associated (p>0.05) with the use of C-section. The results show that inequalities in the C-section exist within and between countries. However, considering the rationale for the use of caesarean sections, we need to implement different and flexible approaches with respect to the characteristics of each country in terms of demography, health systems, and economic levels.
    Keywords: Caesarean section; Prevalence; Delivery; Maternal Health
    JEL: I1 I12 I14 I18
    Date: 2023–05–15
  21. By: KAMKOUM, Arnaud Cedric
    Abstract: This paper examines the monetary policies the Federal Reserve implemented in response to the Global Financial Crisis. More specifically, it analyzes the Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing (QE) programs, liquidity facilities, and forward guidance operations conducted from 2007 to 2018. The essay’s detailed examination of these policies culminates in an interrupted time-series (ITS) analysis of the long-term causal effects of the QE programs on U.S. inflation and real GDP. The results of this formal design-based natural experimental approach show that the QE operations positively affected U.S. real GDP but did not significantly impact U.S. inflation. Specifically, it is found that, for the 2011Q2-2018Q4 post-QE period, real GDP per capita in the U.S. increased by an average of 231 dollars per quarter relative to how it would have changed had the QE programs not been conducted. Moreover, the results show that, in 2018Q4, ten years after the beginning of the QE programs, real GDP per capita in the U.S. was 14% higher relative to what it would have been during that quarter had there not been the QE programs. These findings contradict Williamson’s (2017) informal natural experimental evidence and confirm the conclusions of VARs and new Keynesian DSGE models that the Federal Reserve’s QE policies positively affected U.S. real GDP. The results suggest that the current U.S. and worldwide high inflation rates are likely not because of the QE programs implemented in response to the financial crisis that accompanied the COVID-19 pandemic. They are likely due to the unprecedentedly large fiscal stimulus packages used, the peculiar nature of the financial downturn itself, the negative supply shocks from the war in Ukraine, or a combination of these factors. To the best of my knowledge, this paper is the first study to measure the macroeconomic effects of QE using a design-based natural experimental approach.
    Keywords: Federal Reserve System; monetary policy; quantitative easing (QE); Global Financial Crisis; interrupted time-series (ITS) analysis; natural experiment; Great Recession; unconventional monetary policies; quasi-quantitative easing (qQE); quantitative tightening (QT); quasi-quantitative tightening (qQT); CPI inflation; Williamson (2017)
    JEL: C10 C22 E52 E58 G01
    Date: 2023–05–20
  22. By: Lenormand, Théo; Janet, Dwyer; Devienne, Sophie
    Abstract: Post-Brexit agricultural support policy development in Wales is taking a holistic approach to sustainability combining economic, environmental and social goals in one scheme to replace the CAP. It is taking a different model compared to the other UK nations or the EU. But the challenges faced by farming have intensified with COVID and the Ukraine war including the input/output price squeeze. We used the agrarian diagnosis, a holistic case-study approach to analyse selected farm focused territories that represent typical trends in Welsh farming. We identified and quantified future scenarios relating to a range of challenges faced by Welsh farming and made a territorially sensitive impact assessment by applying those in successive steps to farm models originating from the case-studies. We first assessed the impact of the current macro-economic evolution, before considering the adoption and impact of the planned SFS with a specific focus on tenanted farms, the new form of tenancy and treeplanting, as these elements have featured heavily in stakeholder responses to the Welsh scheme. The results show that the current economic context represents a challenge for those farms using high levels of production factors. Particularly for these, it is possible to identify how the Welsh scheme could deliver many improvements; nevertheless, problems remain around impact on generational renewal, competing land uses and supply-chain and technological lock-ins.
    Keywords: Agricultural and Food Policy, International Development
    Date: 2023–03
  23. By: Jakub Soko³owski; Jan Frankowski
    Abstract: Climate policy is crucial for preventing the devastating effects of natural disasters like droughts, floods, and heat waves. It also plays a vital role in reducing Poland's dependence on imported coal, gas, and oil; addressing energy security concerns in the wake of the crisis caused by Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Environmental taxes are a highly effective tool for addressing climate risks. However, they can be controversial instruments, as their implementation may often lead to higher energy prices and social tensions. To mitigate these risks, it is important to implement fair and participatory climate policies that consider social preferences. A key aspect of ensuring the fairness of environmental taxes lies in the effective redistribution of their revenues. Preference research and citizens’ panels can help identify differences between varying social groups, allowing policymakers to better address citizens’ concerns and expectations. By adopting a climate policy based on these principles, Poland can significantly reduce social conflicts and minimise the risk of mass protests akin to the Yellow Vest movement sweeping across France.
    Keywords: carbon tax, redistribution, climate change, discrete choice experiment, willingness to pay
    JEL: D74 H23 Q41 Q54
    Date: 2023–04
  24. By: Siegfried, T.; Anarbekov, Oyture; Ragettli, S.
    Keywords: Water use; Energy; Foods; Nexus approaches; Accountability
    Date: 2022
  25. By: Nordine Abidi; Mehdi Akhbari; Bashar Hlayhel; Sahra Sakha
    Abstract: Remittance flows in emerging market and developing economies were surprisingly resilient during the COVID-19 crisis, providing much-needed income support for remittance-receiving households. However, households were impacted differently across income distributions. Using novel high-frequency household panel data for Georgia and the Kyrgyz Republic and a difference-in-differences approach, we find that as household income fell during the pandemic, remittance-receiving households were more affected than non-remittance-receiving households. Importantly, we find that the incomes of poor, remittance-receiving households in the Kyrgyz Republic were more adversely affected than their non-remittance-receiving counterparts. In contrast, in Georgia, affluent remittance-receiving households experienced more significant income declines than poor remittance-receiving households. This heterogeneous impact can largely be explained by variations in the effectiveness of social safety nets in the two countries. Our results have important policy implications. Although remittances remained resilient during the pandemic, they affected households differently. As such, policymakers should prioritize addressing gaps in social safety nets to support the most vulnerable.
    Keywords: COVID-19; Remittances; Central Asia
    Date: 2023–05–05
  26. By: François Facchini (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: Par son livre, "L'entrepreneur et le politique dans la Russie post-soviétique", Guillem Achermann invite à revenir sur l'évènement probablement le plus important du XX° siècle, l'échec de la transition forcée vers le socialisme d'un bloc entier de pays et, finalement, la mise en œuvre d'une transition vers un régime politique hybride dominé par un Etat rentier. Il propose une explication non finaliste de la transition qui permet de comprendre pourquoi le capitalisme démocratique n'a pas triomphé en Russie post-socialiste. Au cœur de l'explication se trouve l'entrepreneur et une boucle de rétroaction. L'entrepreneur donne à la volonté humaine et au contingent sa place dans l'écriture de l'histoire alors que la boucle de rétroaction introduit l'apprentissage, ce que les agents apprennent des faits et la manière dont ils y réagissent. Sur cette base, on peut expliquer pourquoi la Russie n'a pas transité du marché à l'économie centralement planifiée, mais d'une économie dirigée à une forme hybride d'économie de rente ou de démocrature de connivence. Cette préface se propose de replacer la thèse du livre dans l'histoire longue du socialisme et des débats qu'il a suscité et de la présenter dans un second temps dans ses grandes lignes.
    Date: 2021–06
  27. By: Kimsanova, Barchynai; Sanaev, Golib; Herzfeld, Thomas
    Abstract: This paper analyzes the relationship between international migration, labor, remittances, and agricultural commercialization in Kyrgyzstan using nationally representative household panel surveys covering eight years from 2013 to 2020. Unlike other studies, we focus on evaluating the impact of international migration on total farm commercialization, including crop, livestock, and live animals. We use quantile regression via moments and a three-stage least squares method to overcome the potential endogeneity of migration, labor, and remittances. Overall results show that sending household members abroad has a significant labor-loss effect on households with a consequent impact on farm commercialization. Remittances only partially compensate for losses for households with the lowest level of commercialization. Furthermore, the quantile regressions show little heterogeneity between the selected quantiles, except for the number of migrants, which is detrimental to the lowest level of commercialization
    Keywords: Agribusiness, International Development
    Date: 2023–03
  28. By: Budzinski, Oliver; Stöhr, Annika
    Abstract: Der vorliegende Beitrag analysiert die im Energiesektor erfolgten Ministererlaubnisse vor dem Hintergrund der Betrachtung der Gemeinwohlbegründung 'Energieversorgungssicherheit in Deutschland'. Anhand der vertieften Untersuchung des Falles E.ON/Ruhrgas als zuletzt ministererlaubter Fusion im Energiebereich wird dargestellt, dass die Energieversorgungssicherheit Deutschlands auch vor dem Zusammenschluss wohl nicht gefährdet war und nach der Ministererlaubnis durch die gesteigerte Abhängigkeit von russischem Erdgas eher noch gemindert wurde. Es zeigt sich die erhebliche Reformbedürftigkeit des Instrumentes Ministererlaubnis insgesamt, wofür entsprechende Überarbeitungsvorschläge - etwa im Rahmen der 12. GWB-Novelle - vorgelegt werden.
    Keywords: Ministererlaubnis, Zusammenschlusskontrolle, Wettbewerbspolitik, Energie, Versorgungssicherheit, E.ON/Ruhrgas, 12. GWB-Novelle
    JEL: L40 K21 B52 L51
    Date: 2023
  29. By: Christian Saad (CREDDI - Centre de Recherche en Economie et en Droit du Développement Insulaire [UR7_2] - UA - Université des Antilles)
    Abstract: Évoquer Brassens quarante ans après sa mort est une gageure à plusieurs titres. D'abord, par l'importance de son oeuvre, Brassens est aujourd'hui un patrimoine de la chanson française et mondiale. Il a fait l'objet de plusieurs dizaines de thèses de doctorat et de mémoires universitaires à travers le monde 1. Il est chanté dans de nombreuses langues du japonais au russe, en passant par l'espagnol, l'anglais, l'arabe, le basque, l'allemand ou le créole martiniquais 2. Il a aussi été repris par Patachou,
    Date: 2023

General information on the NEP project can be found at For comments please write to the director of NEP, Marco Novarese at <>. Put “NEP” in the subject, otherwise your mail may be rejected.
NEP’s infrastructure is sponsored by the School of Economics and Finance of Massey University in New Zealand.