nep-cis New Economics Papers
on Confederation of Independent States
Issue of 2023‒05‒15
twelve papers chosen by

  1. Inertia of peasant farms By Rozinskaya Natalia; Chaplygina Irina; Sorokin Alexander
  2. Study of the concentration of the banking sector in the Russian Federation By Arkhipova Kate; Besedovskaya Maria
  3. Memories about “the Hard 1990s” as a Resource for Adaptation to the New Turbulence: The Analysis of the Russian Media By Olga Yu. Malinova
  4. Global food policy report 2023: Rethinking food crisis responses: Synopsis [in Chinese] By International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)
  5. Foreign Direct Investment in Ukraine By Puzikova, Valentyna
  6. The impact of transitional climate risks on the value of Russian companies By Loginova Veronika
  7. Shifts in Composition of Jobs: Upgrading, Downgrading or Polarization? The Case of Russia 2000-2019 By Gimpelson, Vladimir; Kapeliushnikov, Rostislav
  8. Is the Global Economy Deglobalizing? And if so, why? And what is next? By Pinelopi K. Goldberg; Tristan Reed
  9. Peter I – The King of catching up development By Grigoriev Leonid
  10. The potentially misleading nature of the use of stock photos in news reporting: A case in 2022 of the Russo-Ukrainian War By Teixeira da Silva, Jaime A.
  11. Econometric analysis of consumer choice in the car market By Gorshkova Marina; Mirzoyan Ashot
  12. International Target Market Selection Using Entropy and Multi-Moora Methods through a Case Study By METİN, İsmail

  1. By: Rozinskaya Natalia (Department of Economics, Lomonosov Moscow State University); Chaplygina Irina (Department of Economics, Lomonosov Moscow State University); Sorokin Alexander (Department of Economics, Lomonosov Moscow State University)
    Abstract: The article is devoted to the analysis of one of the features of the behavior of peasant farms that distinguishes them from the behavior of firms, namely the tendency to reduce production volumes in response to the improvement of market conditions (inertness, in the terminology of N.D.Kondratiev). The authors turn to theoretical explanations of this trend, in particular in the works of A.Chayanov, and then attempt to test the reliability of the identified feature on Russian data from the beginning of the XX century. Having analyzed the dynamics of the amount of land plowed by peasants in response to the dynamics of prices in various provinces of Russia, the authors find a significant negative correlation. Comparing with similar results for landlords, the authors come to conclusion that negative correlation is specific only to peasant farms, thereby proving the hypothesis of inertness.
    Keywords: Peasant economy, the inertia of the household, price elasticity of supply, cultivated areas, A.V. Chayanov, Russian empire, XIX-XX century
    JEL: Q10 Q12
    Date: 2023–03
  2. By: Arkhipova Kate (Department of Economics, Lomonosov Moscow State University); Besedovskaya Maria (Department of Economics, Lomonosov Moscow State University)
    Abstract: The Russian banking sector is strictly regulated by the Central Bank of Russia to ensure the stability of the financial system. Launched in 2013, the revocation of licenses from banks for too risky lending policies, money laundering and suspicious transactions led to a sharp reduction in market participants. On the one hand, this has led to an increase in the stability of the Russian banking system, and on the other hand, to an increase in the monopolization of the industry, which may lead to a drop in the efficiency of the sector. The work evaluates the current concentration of the Russian banking sector and determines the market structure of this market. To do this, a systematic approach to the analysis of the sector was applied, the dynamics of key concentration indices was 2 analyzed, and the Panzar-Ross industry monopolization indicator was calculated. The results obtained (high concentration indexes and low Panzar-Ross market power) indicate the presence of a "tough oligopoly in a competitive environment" in the sector.
    Keywords: Banking sector, market power, competition, oligopoly, concentration
    JEL: G18 G21 L13
    Date: 2022–11
  3. By: Olga Yu. Malinova (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: The paper contributes to better understanding of public perceptions of the new reality emerging after the entry of Russia’s troops in Ukraine on February 24, 2022 and the unprecedented retaliatory sanctions from the West. It focuses on how the memories about the traumatic experience of the 1990s were activated to manage the new turbulence and uncertainty. Based on publications of the printed and electronic media in February-August, 2022, through the qualitative content analysis conducted in the MAXQDA app, the paper reveals typical patterns of framing the connections between “then” and “now”. The author argues that memories turned to be an essential symbolic resource for making sense of the new reality, as soon as the latter displayed many analogies with the past traumatic experience. It finds that the activation of memories about the 1990s was largely based on the established frames of remembrance that became re-interpreted in the new context. In particular, the past experience of “hard times” that had been overcome provides confidence that the current situation is manageable. At the same time, a dangerous proliferation of a xenophobic discourse proposing then eradication of a liberal “fifth column” was detected.
    Keywords: Collective memory, frames of remembrance, the hard 1990s, public discourse
    JEL: Z
    Date: 2023
  4. By: International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)
    Abstract: In 2022, the world faced multiple crises. Disruptions to food systems from the protracted COVID-19 pandemic, major natural disasters, civil unrest and political instability, and the growing impacts of climate change continued, as the Russia-Ukraine war and inflation exacerbated a global food and fertilizer crisis. The growing number of crises, their increasing impact, and rising numbers of hungry and displaced people have galvanized calls to rethink responses to food crises, creating a real opportunity for change.
    Keywords: agriculture; development; food security; hunger; policy; resilience; crises
    Date: 2023
  5. By: Puzikova, Valentyna
    Abstract: The Ukrainian economy cannot ensure economic reconstruction after the war and needs new opportunities for its development. Foreign direct investment (FDI) is an important instrument that can help. FDI provides capital relevant for increasing the profitability of economic sectors. FDI is also part of political investment - should be given priority in government activities. For this reason, it triggers economic growth and improves macroeconomic performance when it is used to develop the market and its infrastructure. In this article, I give an overview of the understanding of FDI and its actual situation in Ukraine. The arguments reflect mainly an investor's point of view. This helps to emphasize the importance of realistic and informative data for assessing the attractiveness of Ukraine. A first step in this direction is made with reference to international indices. I will try to review a reflection of relevant indices, which provide an assessment of the macroeconomic situation in Ukraine. The main results of the article: an overview of the real situation with FDI in Ukraine and the importance of using international indices during the FDI processes. The benefits of FDI do not appear automatically. It depends on the investment policy of host countries, especially Ukraine. My contribution to this article is to draw attention to the current situation with FDI in Ukraine and the issue of the lack of systematic use of international indices during the FDI processes. Without a clear understanding of these issues, it is impossible to answer the following questions that need to be studied, such as how to solve the challenges with FDI and attract new foreign capital to Ukraine. The article will be of interest to those who are interested in the issue of investment policy in the context of Ukraine, study this issue at the scientific level, and practically develop and implement the strategy of investment policy in Ukraine. The main conclusion of the article is to show the importance of revising the approaches to political investment in Ukraine, taking into account the international evaluation indices.
    Keywords: FDI; FDI net inflows; long-lasting linkns; economic growth; investment
    JEL: F21 F60
    Date: 2023–04
  6. By: Loginova Veronika (Department of Economics, Lomonosov Moscow State University)
    Abstract: This paper describes the channels of influence of transitional climate risks on the value of companies and provides empirical evidence of the impact of transitional climate risks on the value of Russian companies on the example of the introduction of cross-border regulation in the EU. A study using the methods of event analysis and the construction of autoregressive models for assessing excess returns confirmed that these risks are taken into account by the Russian financial market, and proved the need to take them into account in the long-term evaluation of the company.
    Keywords: transitional climate risks, channels of influence, company value, event analysis, autoregressive models, cross-border regulation
    JEL: G14 G38 G39
    Date: 2022–12
  7. By: Gimpelson, Vladimir (University of Wisconsin-Madison); Kapeliushnikov, Rostislav (CLMS, Higher School of Economics, Moscow)
    Abstract: In this study, we explore the changing employment structure in the Russian economy since 2000. Does it change through a consequent substitution of relatively worst (in terms of quality) jobs by better jobs? Or through the destruction of middle quality jobs? Or do we observe stagnation and conservation of the job structure? Structural change of this sort can be brought by various factors among which technological progress and international trade that shape demand for labor of different quality and complexity play a special role. In search for clues to these questions, the authors use large data sets that cover two sub-periods divided by the 2008/9 crisis. The estimates presented in the paper allow the rejection of the polarization hypothesis and they document a fast upgrade of the job structure during the 1st sub-period and a stalemate during the 2nd one. Apparently, risks of job polarization are likely to be minimal until economic growth is recovered and a movement to the technological frontier is accelerated.
    Keywords: job, job structure, employment, polarization, wage distribution
    JEL: J21 J24 J31 J62
    Date: 2023–04
  8. By: Pinelopi K. Goldberg; Tristan Reed
    Abstract: Data on global trade as well as capital and labor flows indicate a slowdown, but not reversal, of globalization post the 2008-09 financial crisis. Yet profound changes in the policy environment and public sentiment in the largest economies over the past five years suggest the beginning of a new era. Increasing anxiety about the labor market effects of import competition from low-wage countries, especially China, laid the groundwork, but was not the catalyst for the reversal in attitudes towards globalization. Similarly, the COVID pandemic provided novel arguments against free trade based on global supply chain resilience, but neither the pandemic nor short run policy response had enduring effects on trade flows. We demonstrate that global trade was remarkably resilient during the pandemic and that supply shortages would likely have been more severe in the absence of international trade. After a temporary decline in 2020, global trade in goods and services increased sharply in 2021. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine raised new concerns about national security and the exposure of supply chains to geopolitical risk. This was followed by demands to diversify away from “non-friendly” countries and to the employment of trade policy, export restrictions in particular, to halt China’s technological development. The future of globalization is highly uncertain at this point, but these new policies will likely slow global growth, innovation, and poverty reduction even if they benefit certain industries in certain countries. Regarding resilience, the main goal of recent trade policy changes, measures of trade volatility or concentration can be helpful, but resilience will be elusive as long as we lack benchmarks against which policy performance can be measured.
    JEL: F0 F1 N0 O10 O49
    Date: 2023–04
  9. By: Grigoriev Leonid (National Research University Higher School of Economics; Department of Economics, Lomonosov Moscow State University)
    Abstract: The activity of Peter the Great on large-scale reforms in practical terms began with the war, coincided with the war and in a number of key issues was determined by the need to wage war, arming and supplying the army, restructuring management. Starting with the moderate goal of opening a "window to Europe", after 1714 administrative reforms became broader and more comprehensive. But by this time, critical steps to move away from the "boyar" management, the creation of an army on a modern basis and the development of industry on the basis of serfdom had already been taken made. The logic of reforms was determined not only by the desire for Europe and not by the teleology of empire creation. We are talking about the pragmatic need to use the window of opportunity to get out of the "ring track" of a vast forest power compressed by three imperial (regardless of titles) neighbors of other faiths - Turkey, Poland and Sweden. All three had goals in relation to Russia within the framework of their own political, economic and territorial interests. Progress and needs The Northern War largely determined the nature of the reforms, and the success of the war led to towards the formation of an empire. The results of the reforms and the war gave the country a chance for development, although a large-scale transition to more mature European socio-economic institutions in these short terms and under conditions of war was not realized and could not be realized.
    Keywords: Peter the Great, domestic policy, foreign policy, war, international trade
    JEL: B20 B22 B27 B31
    Date: 2022–11
  10. By: Teixeira da Silva, Jaime A.
    Abstract: The ability to transmit accurate information that does not deceive its readership, and the use of images that reflects the truth of the fact that they are supposed to be representing, should be an important principle and basal tenet of any traditional or social media-based news or journalistic organization or platform. It is not uncommon to find images or photos that accompany the text of a news article, and the visual impact of an image, as is often expressed in a cliché, can sometimes add much more value than merely the text itself. Whereas some fake news is patently untrue, another gray zone of journalism that is affected by fake news may encompass bias, spin and deceit. Absent rigorous quality control and editing measures, a news source may inadvertently slip into this gray zone, which encompasses the use of stock photos to represent, or supplement, the text of news items. Focusing on photos by a pro-Ukrainian social media app-based news media outlet, this rather unusual case involves a highly topical personality, the President of Ukraine. This article points to how subtle “truth” can change through the use (or abuse) of stock photos. Several images covering May-September of 2022, specifically photos or videos of an unshaven President Zelenskyy in military attire that switch to images of a shaven individual in a suit, and back again, are examined from a single Telegram-based news source. This case exemplifies, using a “soft” example, the risks of “massaging” truth using stock photos. In times of war, especially in the ongoing Russia-Ukrainian war, the accuracy of news, including the non-fictional imagery that accompanies it, is essential, so as to neither mislead nor bias the readership, and to portray the news as accurately and neutrally as possible.
    Date: 2023–04–14
  11. By: Gorshkova Marina (Department of Economics, Lomonosov Moscow State University); Mirzoyan Ashot (Department of Economics, Lomonosov Moscow State University)
    Abstract: The car market, like many others, needs a detailed study from the consumer's choice and preferences, because this aspect allows you to get to know the buyer better, understand what is important to him, and in which direction the industry as a whole is moving. The purpose of this work is to identify the determinants that determine the features of demand in the current economic situation in the personal transport market in Russia. The following analysis tools are used: clustering by the k means method, factor analysis by the principal components method, ordered logistic regression. Using the example of the Russian segment of the automotive market, 3 groups were identified and their preferences described, as well as the main factors influencing consumer choice among motorists and those who plan to buy personal transport were identified.
    Keywords: Car market, consumer behavior, consumer choice, clustering, principal component method, logistic regression
    JEL: L10 L62
    Date: 2022–11
  12. By: METİN, İsmail
    Abstract: Today, despite the severe level of competition between businesses, companies dealing with foreign trade spend an enormous effort to sell their products overseas. Before taking the first step toward the act of exporting, companies are obliged to take some critical decisions. One of the strategic decisions is to determine the target market selection. This study aims to apply the Entropy and the Multi - Moora methods to define the target market selection strategy of a company that produces and plans to export cold storage and pre-cooling systems to foreign markets. The weights of the criteria that would be used in the evaluation and the selection phases of the study have been measured with the Entropy method. Alternative markets have been seized upon by using the Multi - Moora method and the most appropriate target market has been chosen accordingly. Upon the detailed calculations, Georgia has been observed to be the target market country that provided the related criteria at the most appropriate level. Romania and Kazakhstan follow this country, respectively.
    Date: 2023–04–04

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