nep-cis New Economics Papers
on Confederation of Independent States
Issue of 2023‒05‒08
fourteen papers chosen by
Alexander Harin
Modern University for the Humanities

  1. Assessment of the contribution of the unobserved economy to the macroeconomic indicators of the regions of the Russian Federation By Kiselev Sergei; Samsonov Valery; Seitov Sanat; Filimonov Ilya
  2. Ukraine: Request for an Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility and Review of Program Monitoring with Board Involvement-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Ukraine By International Monetary Fund
  3. Sailing Through Rough Waters By Vasily Astrov; Alexandra Bykova; Rumen Dobrinsky; Selena Duraković; Meryem Gökten; Richard Grieveson; Doris Hanzl-Weiss; Gabor Hunya; Branimir Jovanović; Niko Korpar; Sebastian Leitner; Ravik Mima; Beate Muck; Olga Pindyuk; Sandor Richter; Bernd Christoph Ströhm; Maryna Tverdostup; Nina Vujanović; Zuzana Zavarská; Adam Żurawski
  4. Economic sanctions against Russia: How effective? How durable? By Jeffrey J. Schott
  5. Monthly Report No. 10/2022 By Vasily Astrov; Andrei V. Belyi; Tetiana Bogdan; Vladislav L. Inozemtsev
  6. Моногорода Арктики в условиях санкционных ограничений By Pitukhina, Maria; Belykh, Anastasia
  7. Econometric assessment of the impact of training in the Moscow national team in economics in online format on the results of schoolchildren in the Russian Olympiad of schoolchildren By Babayan Vladimir; Belousov Ivan; Lesin Vladislav; Magzhanov Timur; Telepnev Danila
  8. Policy Responses to High Energy and Food Prices By David Amaglobeli; Mr. Gee Hee Hong; Emine Hanedar; Celine Thevenot; Mengfei Gu
  9. Japan: 2023 Article IV consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Japan By International Monetary Fund
  10. Heterogeneity in the Pass-Through from Oil to Gasoline Prices: A New Instrument for Estimating the Price Elasticity of Gasoline Demand By Lutz Kilian; Xiaoqing Zhou
  11. Sustainable Economic Growth: A Critical Assessment of SDG 8.1 By Ahlerup, Pelle; Olsson, Ola
  12. Political constraints and opportunities for agricultural investment in Sudan [in Arabic] By D'Silva, Brian; Hassan, Rashid; Hutur, Abdelrahman; Ibrahim, Sami; Abushama, Hala; Siddig, Khalid; Kirui, Oliver K.
  13. Monetary Policy and the Yield Curve By Vladislav Abramov
  14. Crisis Experience and the Deep Roots of Covid-19 Vaccination Preferences By Ekaterina Borisova; Klaus Gründler; Armin Hackenberger; Anina Harter; Niklas Potrafke; Koen Schoors

  1. By: Kiselev Sergei (Department of Economics, Lomonosov Moscow State University); Samsonov Valery (Department of Economics, Lomonosov Moscow State University); Seitov Sanat (Department of Economics, Lomonosov Moscow State University); Filimonov Ilya (Department of Economics, Lomonosov Moscow State University)
    Abstract: The purpose of this article is to assess the impact of the results of unobserved economic activity on the value of the main macroeconomic indicator at the regional level in the Russian Federation – the gross regional product. The article uses the definition of the category "unobservable economy", first formally formulated in the 1993 SNA, developed by the UN Statistical Commission. Based on it, a statistical assessment of the shadow economy in the subjects of the Russian Federation from 2010 to 2020 was carried out by improving the existing methodology of Rosstat due to the fact that at the regional level, the GVA is not adjusted for operations that are not observed by direct statistical methods. The relative scales of the unobservable component were measured, i.e. its share in GRP in 80 subjects of the Russian Federation. The calculations refuted the main hypothesis that Moscow has the largest relative scale of the unobserved economy. For example, in 2020, the Sakha Republic turned out to be such a region of Russia (36.6% against the federal 13.0%).certain students were randomly included in the control group and the treatment group.
    Keywords: Unobserved economy, gross regional product
    JEL: C10 C12 C49
    Date: 2023–02
  2. By: International Monetary Fund
    Abstract: Russia’s invasion of Ukraine continues to have a devastating economic and social impact. Active combat is concentrated in eastern and southern Ukraine, while continued attacks on critical energy infrastructure had a severe social toll over the winter. Civilian casualties continue to rise, and over a third of the population has been displaced. The war has had a profound impact on the economy: activity contracted by 30 percent in 2022, a large swathe of the country’s capital stock has been destroyed, and poverty is on the rise. The authorities have nevertheless managed to maintain overall macroeconomic and financial stability, thanks to skillful policymaking and substantial external support.
    Date: 2023–03–31
  3. By: Vasily Astrov (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Alexandra Bykova (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Rumen Dobrinsky (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Selena Duraković (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Meryem Gökten (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Richard Grieveson (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Doris Hanzl-Weiss (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Gabor Hunya (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Branimir Jovanović (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Niko Korpar (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Sebastian Leitner (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Ravik Mima; Beate Muck (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Olga Pindyuk (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Sandor Richter (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Bernd Christoph Ströhm; Maryna Tverdostup (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Nina Vujanović (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Zuzana Zavarská (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Adam Żurawski
    Abstract: Although economic activity has weakened considerably compared to last year, most of the economies of CESEE seem to have largely digested the economic shock caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine and its fallout. All CESEE economies except Hungary and Russia will post positive full-year growth in 2023. From 2024 the recovery should continue to strengthen across the region, although monetary tightening and the uncertain duration and outcome of the war are downside risks to the outlook.
    Keywords: CESEE, Central and Eastern Europe, economic forecast, Western Balkans, Visegrad group, CIS, Ukraine, Russia, Turkey, euro area, EU, convergence, Russia-Ukraine war, Russia sanctions, commodity prices, inflation, energy crisis, gas, coal, renewable energy, electricity, monetary policy, fiscal policy, EU funds, purchasing power, remittances, external debt, interest rates, banking sector, financial liabilities, credit, impact on Austria, macroeconomic forecasting
    JEL: E20 E21 E22 E24 E31 E44 E5 E62 F21 F24 F30 F50 F51 H56 H60 J30 O47 O52 O57 P24 P27 P33 P52 Q40 R30
    Date: 2023–04
  4. By: Jeffrey J. Schott (Peterson Institute for International Economics)
    Abstract: Economic sanctions by Western democracies against Russia have not stopped the war and attacks on Ukrainian civilians. Together with continued economic and military support for Ukraine, however, sanctions are blocking Russian president Vladimir Putin from achieving his territorial objectives. Sanctions have contributed to a sharp compression of Russian imports; forced Russia's military and industry to source from more costly and inefficient suppliers at home and abroad; and slowly begun to squeeze Russian government finances. The G7 countries must sustain and augment their efforts, including by confiscating frozen reserves of the Central Bank of Russia to help fund Ukraine's reconstruction. G7 policymakers need to derive lessons from the current crisis about the utility of sanctions in conflicts between major powers. Maintaining coherent and coordinated sanctions against large and powerful target countries is critical for the effectiveness and durability of the policy. Deploying sanctions against such rivals also requires a long-term commitment to the implementation and enforcement of the trade and finance restrictions. Sanctions impose costs on both the target country and those imposing the sanctions, so Western policymakers need to offset those costs via domestic support or tax relief to sustain political support over time for sanctions in big power conflicts.
    Date: 2023–04
  5. By: Vasily Astrov (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Andrei V. Belyi; Tetiana Bogdan; Vladislav L. Inozemtsev
    Abstract: Chart of the Month Gas supply cuts as Russia’s weapon in the economic war with the West by Vasily Astrov Gazprom’s gas exit by Andrei V. Belyi By going to war with Ukraine, Russia clearly chose the short-term geopolitical agenda over its longer-term economic interests. In the aftermath of the EU sanctions and Russia’s counter-sanctions, there is only one major gas export route to the EU that remains unaffected by Russia’s supply cuts the one via Turkey. Meanwhile, deliveries via the Yamal-Europe pipeline, Nord Stream 1 and Ukraine have all suffered to varying degrees. Thus, ironically, Gazprom has helped the EU in its efforts to reduce its dependence on Russian gas by two thirds by the end of the year. Opinion Corner Russia’s economic suicide, act 2 by Vladislav Inozemtsev The economic consequences of the recently announced military mobilisation in Russia will be dramatic and manifold. Up to 8% of the male workforce will be lost, consumption and investment will suffer, and new Western sanctions are on the cards. As a result, Russian GDP could decline by 10% this year. Ukraine’s public finances radical change in time of war by Tetiana Bogdan Since the start of the Russian aggression, Ukraine’s government revenues have plunged sharply; by contrast, expenditure has risen on the back of defence spending. So far, the ensuing fiscal gap has been covered by a combination of foreign aid and deficit monetisation; but more foreign aid will be needed to face the upcoming challenges. Monthly and quarterly statistics for Central, East and Southeast Europe
    Keywords: gas exports, economic war, Yamal-Europe, Nord Stream, gas transit via Ukraine, TurkStream, partial mobilisation, labour supply, domestic demand, budget revenues, budget expenditures, budget deficit financing, seigniorage
    Date: 2022–10
  6. By: Pitukhina, Maria; Belykh, Anastasia
    Abstract: В фокусе исследования находятся арктические моногорода, градообразующие предприятия которых входят в холдинги ПАО «ГМК «Норильский никель», АО «Русал», ПАО «ФосАгро», «Segezha group», АО «Полиметалл». Эти предприятия, в свою очередь, смогли преодолеть вызовы, столкнувшись с санкционным давлением в 2022 году. В статье анализируется непростая демографическая ситуация, сложившаяся в арктических моногородах за последние 10 лет. Данные Росстата свидетельствуют, что за последние 5 лет моногорода Арктики в среднем покидает 72 000 человек ежегодно. Сверхотрицательное сальдо миграции за последние 10 лет зафиксировано в Воркуте и Инте. Среди основных причин выбытия из моногородов Арктики называются – возвращение к прежнему месту жительства (35, 5%) и по семейным обстоятельствам (31, 5%). Безусловно, внешние шоки 2022 года могут негативным образом отразиться на демографии моногородов Арктики, что еще больше может поспособствовать оттоку населения, однако, такой негативный прогноз коснется лишь некоторой части арктических моногородов. В настоящий момент в зоне риска остается арктический моногород Республики Карелия Костомукша – в городе закрылось множество совместных российско-финских предприятий, а наиболее сильно санкции коснулись градообразующего предприятия, входящего в ПАО «Северсталь». Кроме того, в 2022 году в Костомукше закрылся целый ряд совместных российско-финских предприятий. Сложившаяся ситуация косвенным образом может оказать негативное влияние на демографическую ситуацию в городе, который в 2019 году, имел положительный демографический прирост среди немногих городов Арктики. The study focuses on Arctic single-industry towns, where chief town-forming enterprises used to be parts of huge holdings. These enterprises managed to overcome challenges and sanctions in 2022 successfully. The article analyzes extremely difficult demographic situation which has appeared in Arctic single-industry towns for the past 10 years. Rosstat data has shown that around 72, 000 people has been leaving Arctic single-industry towns annually for the last five years. Reasons for out- migration became “a return to a former place of residence” and “due to family reasons”. An ultra-negative migration balance has been also recorded in Vorkuta and Inta for the last 10 years. Reasons for out-migration are return to a former place of residence and due to family reasons. The external shocks of 2022 might have a negative impact on Arctic single-industry towns demography, which might further contribute to population outflow, however, such a negative forecast would affect only some Arctic towns. Kostomuksha is still in a risk zone since a number of joint Russian-Finnish enterprises have closed down in, and “Severstal” has been severely affected by sanctions. This situation might indirectly affect demographic situation in Kostomuksha which in 2019 had a positive demographic change among other Arctic cities.
    Keywords: моногород; миграция; санкции; демография; Арктика; межнациональные отношения; НКО
    JEL: J1 R23
    Date: 2023–04
  7. By: Babayan Vladimir (Department of Economics, Lomonosov Moscow State University); Belousov Ivan (Department of Economics, Lomonosov Moscow State University); Lesin Vladislav (Department of Economics, Lomonosov Moscow State University); Magzhanov Timur (Department of Economics, Lomonosov Moscow State University); Telepnev Danila (Department of Economics, Lomonosov Moscow State University)
    Abstract: This paper demonstrates identifying of the treatment effect of receiving educational training in the Moscow national economics onlineteam on schoolchildren scores at the All-Russian Olympiad in economics. The paper proves efficiency of conducting an online educational platform. To capture the mentioned effect, classical econometric models were used: the regression discontinuity design and the discrete binary choice model. Some specifications of classical multiple regression were also used to identify the time effect and additional evaluation was carried out using the 2 assumption that certain students were randomly included in the control group and the treatment group.
    Keywords: All-Russian Olympiad of schoolchildren (VSOSH), online education, impact effect, discontinuous design model, binary choice model
    JEL: C31 I21 I24
    Date: 2022–12
  8. By: David Amaglobeli; Mr. Gee Hee Hong; Emine Hanedar; Celine Thevenot; Mengfei Gu
    Abstract: The surge in energy and food prices, which was amplified by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, has prompted a flurry of policy responses by countries during 2022. The aim of these policy responses was to mitigate social and economic impact of higher prices. In this paper we document announcements of policy measures based on the Database of Energy and Food Price Actions (DEFPA), which was developed based on two rounds of survey responses of IMF country teams conducted in March/April and June/July of 2022. The paper also provides discussion on policy trade-offs when considering appropriate policy responses both for countries with strong and weak social safety nets. Key policy message is that providing targeted support to households in the form of cash transfers is the most cost-effective way of alleviating the burden on vulnerable households and have to be preferred over broad-based mechanisms that prevent international prices to pass through to domestic consumers.
    Keywords: Energy prices; food Prices; cost of living; social policy
    Date: 2023–03–24
  9. By: International Monetary Fund
    Abstract: Japan is navigating the recovery from the pandemic and the implications of the war in Ukraine. COVID-19 related restrictions have been gradually reduced since 2022, with border reopening last October. Headline inflation has recorded levels not seen in four decades.
    Date: 2023–03–30
  10. By: Lutz Kilian; Xiaoqing Zhou
    Abstract: We propose a new instrument for estimating the price elasticity of gasoline demand that exploits systematic differences across U.S. states in the pass-through of oil price shocks to retail gasoline prices. We show that these differences are primarily driven by the cost of producing and distributing gasoline, which varies with states’ access to oil and gasoline transportation infrastructure, refinery technology, and environmental regulations, creating cross-sectional gasoline price shocks in response to an aggregate oil price shock. Time-varying estimates do not support the view that the gasoline demand elasticity has declined in absolute value to near zero since the 1980s. The elasticity was stable near -0.3 until the end of 2014. It rose to about -0.2 in 2015-16, but has remained stable since 2016. Gasoline demand is more responsive in states with lower personal income, higher unemployment rates and lower urban population shares. There is no evidence for an asymmetry in the elasticity with respect to positive and negative gasoline price shocks. We illustrate how these elasticity estimates inform the recent policy debate about the impact of gasoline tax holidays on consumers’ discretionary income, about the demand destruction from the spike in gasoline prices after the invasion of Ukraine, and about the impact of rising gasoline prices on carbon emissions.
    Keywords: price elasticity of gasoline demand, pass-through, gasoline tax, gasoline supply, identification, IV, cross-section
    JEL: D12 Q41
    Date: 2023
  11. By: Ahlerup, Pelle (Department of Economics, School of Business, Economics and Law, Göteborg University); Olsson, Ola (Department of Economics, School of Business, Economics and Law, Göteborg University)
    Abstract: In this report, we focus on the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) target 8.1, stipulating that countries should pursue real GDP per capita growth rates that are in accordance with their national circumstances and that total GDP should grow by more than seven percent a year in the least developed countries. We start by briefly discussing the background of this target and then review some of the existing research on economic growth across the world, starting with growth theory and its predictions concerning the convergence of growth rates and income levels in the short and long term. We also review the extensive empirical work on cross-country income and growth regressions that have accumulated during the last three decades, focusing on recent (pre-covid) and historical patterns regarding the fulfillment of the SDG 8.1 targets. We show that a growth rate in total GDP of seven percent per year has only been observed in about 10 percent of all available country-year observations over history. Growth rates exceeding seven percent were relatively frequent among poor countries during 2000-2009 but not during 2009-2019. Since 2000, the relatively high average growth rates among poor countries have implied that their income levels have steadily converged towards those of richer countries, although at a slow pace. This pattern is manifested in longer periods of sustained growth episodes in poor countries and can probably be explained by successful policy reforms. We also show that about a third of all countries managed to have positive economic growth during 2010-19 while at the same time decreasing their emissions of CO2 from production (decoupling). For poor and rich countries alike, the growth prospects post-covid and after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, are uncertain.
    Keywords: economic growth; sustainable development goals; convergence; SDG 8.1
    JEL: N10 O47 O57
    Date: 2023–04
  12. By: D'Silva, Brian; Hassan, Rashid; Hutur, Abdelrahman; Ibrahim, Sami; Abushama, Hala; Siddig, Khalid; Kirui, Oliver K.
    Abstract: This note reviews Sudan’s contemporary political landscape and how it affects the viability of much needed investments central to the country’s agricultural transformation. It specifically focuses on livestock and horticulture value chains in Greater Khartoum and natural resource management in the Blue Nile and South Kordofan States. Successive governments have largely neglected the agriculture sector even though it is the largest employment sector in Sudan and contributes about 56 percent to total exports (CBoS, 2020). Moreover, the sector has a high potential for tackling the twin challenges of food insecurity and improving the livelihoods of smallholder farmers. These two are critical priorities given high food price inflation and restricted access to agricultural inputs exacerbated by the Ukraine war. An enabling political and governance environment is essential for adopting and implementing the policies required for agricultural transformation, especially in fragile states like Sudan. This Political Economy Assessment (PEA) exercise has highlighted that the military and paramilitary structures occupy a large market share of the State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs), private company partnerships, and land leases to foreign companies in the agriculture sector. Thus, this study forms a basis for deeper PEA and an opportunity for the exploration of the role of intermediaries and the rent seeking activities at the subsequent levels of agricultural value chains, and the extent to which they are linked to both formal and informal economic structures. We have highlighted how smallholder farmers are largely disadvantaged given the current distribution of economic rents.
    Keywords: REPUBLIC OF THE SUDAN, EAST AFRICA, AFRICA SOUTH OF SAHARA, AFRICA, politics, investments, agricultural transformation, livestock, value chains, natural resource management, employment, exports, food insecurity, livelihoods, smallholder farmers, inflation, policies
    Date: 2023
  13. By: Vladislav Abramov (Bank of Russia, Russian Federation Author-Name: Konstantin Styrin Author-Email: Author-Workplace-Name: Bank of Russia, Russian Federation Author-Name: Alexander Tishin Author-Email: Author-Workplace-Name: Bank of Russia, Russian Federation)
    Abstract: This paper discusses the impact of monetary policy on financial and macroeconomic variables in Russia. We distinguish two types of monetary policy: (1) that causes by changes in the current rates and (2) that causes by any other reason (such as forward guidance, communication, and central bank information). We find that these two types have distinct effects on financial variables. The first type better explains the variation of interest rates for the entire yield curve. In contrast, the second type explains the variation in the exchange rate and market indices. Moreover, we also show that monetary policy transmission from interest rates to inflation takes about one year but this effect is only temporary.
    Keywords: monetary policy surprises, high-frequency identification, principal component analysis
    JEL: E52 E58 E43 E44
    Date: 2022–05
  14. By: Ekaterina Borisova; Klaus Gründler; Armin Hackenberger; Anina Harter; Niklas Potrafke; Koen Schoors
    Abstract: We examine the deep roots of preferences for vaccination against COVID-19, moving beyond proximate factors which can only account for part of the observable heterogeneity in the willingness to get vaccinated. Our model on experience-based learning predicts that exposure to past disruptive crises increases individuals’ willingness to acquire and take a promising remedy when new crises occur. Using micro-level data on vaccination preferences for individuals from 19 countries, we find strong evidence for our prediction. We investigate the role of competing vaccines exploiting original geocoded survey data from Russia. Consistent with our theory, past crisis experience decreases vaccination willingness when individuals have learned to distrust the effectiveness of government administered remedies.
    Keywords: Covid-19 vaccination, vaccination preferences, crisis experience, experience effects, survey data, geocoded data
    JEL: H12 H51 I12 I15 I18
    Date: 2023

This nep-cis issue is ©2023 by Alexander Harin. It is provided as is without any express or implied warranty. It may be freely redistributed in whole or in part for any purpose. If distributed in part, please include this notice.
General information on the NEP project can be found at For comments please write to the director of NEP, Marco Novarese at <>. Put “NEP” in the subject, otherwise your mail may be rejected.
NEP’s infrastructure is sponsored by the School of Economics and Finance of Massey University in New Zealand.