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on Confederation of Independent States |
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Issue of 2023‒05‒01
sixteen papers chosen by |
| By: | Häberli, Christian; Kostetsky, Bogdan |
| Abstract: | The latest report of the project "Repairing Broken Food Trade Routes Ukraine – Africa” covers: Weaponisation of grain trade (continued) - war impact on Ukraine’ grain production and market shares Deeper study of risks for Ukrainian supply Quantification of effects of the war on agriculture, economy and ecology This project has received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme “Making Agricultural Trade Sustainable” (MATS) programme (https://sustainable-agri-trade.eu/). The role of MATS/WTI in this programme is to identify and explore “broken” Ukrainian - African food trade routes due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Starting with a food trade flow chart pre- and post-24 February 2022, it will assess, first, whether Ukrainian (or African) traders can again supply these products (Output 1). Failing that, whether the new EU-financed “Crisis Management” (or another) programme can possibly make up for lost Ukrainian agrifood exports (Output 2). It will also identify alternative exporters (if any) which might already have filled in agrifood demand in Africa (Output 3). Importantly, the Project also looks at the potential effect of these developments on competing farm production in Africa (Output 4). For further information and/or offer to assist in project implementation, please write to Christian Häberli (Christian.Haeberli@wti.org) or to Bogdan Kostetsky (bogdan.kostetsky@gmail.com). |
| Date: | 2023–04–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wti:papers:1389&r=cis |
| By: | Oyadeyi, Olajide |
| Abstract: | The onset of the Covid-19 pandemic, the war on Ukraine, and their effects on global output and supply chain have led to inflationary pressures globally. The Covid-19 pandemic has continued to disrupt the global supply chain, especially in China, while the war between Russia and Ukraine has affected commodity and food prices, leading to inflation rising to levels not seen globally since the global financial crisis in 2008. Inflation has been a pressing issue for policymakers globally. In November 2022, US inflation climbed down to 7.1% from a peak of 9.1% in June, the highest ever in many decades. Even though this figure represents a drop of 8.5% from its October inflation report of 7.7%, we would need to stretch back to 1981 for us to get a period when inflation was that high in the US, averaging 10% that year. As a result of this, how has Nigeria been able to address the issues of global inflation fuelled by the ongoing war in Ukraine? What are some policy considerations that are germane to tackle the current rising prices? These and other questions would be addressed in the article. |
| Keywords: | Inflation, Interest Rates |
| JEL: | E30 E31 E42 E43 E52 E58 E62 |
| Date: | 2022–12–31 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:116802&r=cis |
| By: | Cerami, Alfio |
| Abstract: | This article examines the relationship between presence of vertical and horizontal inequalities and the emergence of social, distributive and civil conflicts in Belarus, Latvia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Lithuania, Russian Federation, Tajikistan and Ukraine. Are ethnic, religious or linguistic conflict related reasons alone responsible for the emergence of social, distributive and civil conflicts? If not, what other factors play an equally determinant role (e.g. structure of the economy, regime type, welfare institutions, public policies) in structuring and determining in-groups and out-groups related tensions? These are the key quest this article addresses. In this article I show unstable trends in night lights development and associated electricity usage, which follow recent tensions in the oil and gas economic and political markets. The more oil and gas prices/supply become unstable, the more are the prospects for national and subnational social, distributive and civil conflicts. |
| Keywords: | Eastern Europe, in-groups and out-groups related tensions, social, distributive and civil conflicts, vertical and horizontal inequalities, shadow of war, Commonwealth of Independent States |
| JEL: | D1 D13 D6 D7 D70 D71 D72 D73 D74 D78 D79 D90 E3 I3 I30 I31 I32 I38 J7 J71 J78 L1 P1 P10 P16 P2 P3 P36 P5 P51 P52 R2 R20 R28 |
| Date: | 2023–09–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:116870&r=cis |
| By: | ITO Koji |
| Abstract: | Immediately after Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, the G7, the EU, and others imposed economic sanctions, including trade measures, against Russia. The sanctions were expected to have a serious impact on the Russian economy. However Russia's real economic growth rate in 2022 was only down by 2.1%, leaving doubts about the effectiveness of the sanctions. Therefore, in this paper I conducted a simulation using the OECD "Inter Country Input-Output Table" (ICIO) to analyze the impact of the trade sanctions against Russia on the production activities of each country. If sanctions and countermeasures reduce trade between OECD member countries and Russia by 20%, Russian production will fall by 4.76%, mainly in the mining and petroleum and coal product manufacturing industries. This figure is close to the rate of decline in Russia's GDP during the chaotic period of the late 1990s, meaning that it will have a certain impact. However, based on the actual trade trends after the sanction, I analyzed the case where only OECD countries cut their exports to Russia and Russia does not restrict exports to sanctioned countries. In this case, even if exports decreased by 20%, Russia's production value would only decrease by 0.02%. This result can be attributed to Russia's trade structure, which mainly exports raw materials and imports final goods. Based on the analysis in this paper, the trade sanctions seem to be largely ineffective in the current situation where the number of countries implementing sanctions is small and Europe, Japan and other countries imposing sanctions are accepting imports from Russia. |
| Date: | 2023–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:polidp:23004&r=cis |
| By: | Ewa A. Drzazga-Szcz\c{e}\'sniak; Piotr Szczepanik; Adam Z. Kaczmarek; Dominik Szcz\c{e}\'sniak |
| Abstract: | The concept of entropy is not uniquely relevant to the statistical mechanics but among others it can play pivotal role in the analysis of a time series, particularly the stock market data. In this area sudden events are especially interesting as they describe abrupt data changes which may have long-lasting effects. Here, we investigate the impact of such events on the entropy of financial time series. As a case study we assume data of polish stock market in the context of its main cumulative index. This index is discussed for the finite time periods before and after outbreak of the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, acting as the sudden event. The analysis allows us to validate the entropy-based methodology in assessing market changes as driven by the extreme external factors. We show that qualitative features of market changes can be captured quantitatively in terms of the entropy. In addition to that, the magnitude of the impact is analysed over various time periods in terms of the introduced entropic index. To this end, the present work also attempts to answer whether or not the recent war can be considered as a reason or at least catalyst to the current economic crisis. |
| Date: | 2023–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2303.16155&r=cis |
| By: | Aydin Yakut, Dilan (Central Bank of Ireland) |
| Abstract: | Larger and more sustained energy and commodity price shocks as a result of the war in Ukraine are contributing to higher headline inflation in the euro area (EA), when compared with the US. Underneath the headline numbers, trend inflation – something monetary policy-makers pay close attention to in order to get a sense of persistence in inflation dynamics – is still lower in the EA, mainly due to lower services inflation. However, this gap in trend inflation is gradually closing and even slightly reversed recently when owneroccupied housing services costs are excluded from US inflation. |
| Date: | 2023–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cbi:ecolet:2/el/23&r=cis |
| By: | International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) |
| Abstract: | In 2022, the world faced multiple crises. Disruptions to food systems from the protracted COVID-19 pandemic, major natural disasters, civil unrest and political instability, and the growing impacts of climate change continued, as the Russia-Ukraine war and inflation exacerbated a global food and fertilizer crisis. The growing number of crises, their increasing impact, and rising numbers of hungry and displaced people have galvanized calls to rethink responses to food crises, creating a real opportunity for change. |
| Keywords: | agriculture; development; food security; hunger; policy; resilience; crises |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:synops:9780896294431&r=cis |
| By: | François Geerolf (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po) |
| Abstract: | In a controversial policy paper, Bachmann et al. (2022) argued back in March 2022 that the economic effects for Germany of a complete immediate stop of energy imports from Russia would be small, between 0.5% and 3% of GDP loss. A few weeks later, Baqaee et al. (2022) even presented 0.3% GDP loss in the case of an embargo as the headline number, in a follow-up report for the French Council of Economic Analysis (CAE). This note argues that these estimates are both problematic from a scientific point of view, and also strongly biased towards finding small effects of a gas embargo: this is true of the (socalled) "Baqaee-Farhi approach" arriving at 0.2-0.3% of GDP, the "production function approach" arriving at 1.5% to 2.3% of GDP, as well as the "sufficient statistics approach" (also based on Baqaee-Farhi) arriving at 1% of GDP. This note argues that Olaf Scholz was correct in saying that the mathematical models which were used "don't really work" here, and tries to explain why. In any case, these models do not permit such categorical statements. |
| Keywords: | energy, sanctions, economic models |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04015954&r=cis |
| By: | Heo, Jaichul (KOREA INSaTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)) |
| Abstract: | 미중 전략경쟁 심화와 4차 산업혁명에 따른 반도체 수요의 증가, 그리고 러시아-우크라이나 전쟁 등을 배경으로대만 문제가 부각되고 있다. 본 연구는 공급망 안정과 산업경쟁력, 경제적 통치술을 중심으로 한 경제안보의관점에서 대만해협 유사시 우리의 경제안보가 받게 될 영향과 시사점에 대해 고찰하였다. During the Cold War, the United States and China began visible efforts to normalize relations in 1972, with the strategic intent of jointly responding to the common threat posed by the Soviet Union, and finally established diplomatic relations in 1979. In this process, the Taiwan issue was one of the biggest obstacles to normalizing bilateral relations. Nevertheless, the two countries succeeded in establishing diplomatic relations by agreeing on the “One China” principle (policy) andrecognition of non-governmental exchanges between the U.S. and Taiwan, and have managed the Taiwan issue based on three joint statements made by the two countries. However, the Taiwan issue has been brought to the forefront again, mainly due to great transformation in the international order and strategic competition between the U.S. and China, created by the rise of China and the response of the U.S. to contain it. Of course, even after the establishment of diplomatic relations between the U.S. and China, friction between the U.S. and China over the Taiwan issue and confrontation between both sides of the Taiwan Straits (i.e. Chinese mainland and Taiwan) have continued. However, the recent U.S.-China strategic competition has further increased the risk and uncertainty of the Taiwan issue. In addition, with the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine War, the international community's concern about the Taiwan Strait has grown, and the strategic value of Taiwan is rising even more in the era of the Fourth Industrial Revolution, as an important actor in the global semiconductor supply chain. Against this background, this study analyzes the impact of U.S.-China strategic competition on the Taiwan issue and considers the implications for Korea in terms of supply chain stability, industrial competitiveness, and economic statecraft, which are important elements of economic security.First, the supply chain instability that can result from an emergency in the Taiwan Strait will mainly occur along the maritime transportation route, which accounts for an overwhelming portion of Korea's import and export volume.(the rest omitted) |
| Keywords: | 경제안보; 중국정치; Economic security; Chinese politics |
| Date: | 2023–03–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kiepwp:2022_012&r=cis |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | Cameroon, a fragile and conflict affected state, proved resilient to the COVID- 19 shock but is now facing increased challenges in an uncertain global environment. The recovery, which was supported by higher oil prices and non-oil production in 2021, continued in 2022, against the backdrop of Russia’s war in Ukraine, inflationary pressures, supply chain disruptions, and tight global financial conditions. Cameroon has successfully completed two reviews since the approval in July 2021 of the three-year arrangements under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) and the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) for SDR 483 million (about US$689.5 million, or 175 percent of quota). Completion of the third review will allow the total disbursement of SDR 55.2 million (about US$73.3 million). |
| Date: | 2023–03–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2023/114&r=cis |
| By: | Kirui, Oliver K.; Siddig, Khalid |
| Abstract: | On Monday, October 10th, 2022, the Sudan Strategy Support Program (Sudan SSP) held the inaugural full-day Research and Policy Conference dubbed “Agricultural Transformation and Food Security in Sudan†at the Corinthia Hotel in Khartoum, Sudan. This event was organized in partnership with local and international organizations working on the Food Security and Agricultural Transformation themes in Sudan. They include the Arab Organization for Agricultural Development (AOAD), Mamoun Behairy Centre for Economic and Social Studies and Research in Africa (MBC), Sudanese Researcher Foundation (SRF) and the International Center for Agricultural Research in Dry Areas (ICARDA). The conference brought together about 120 food security and nutrition experts from civil society, private sector, academia and international organizations and many other online participants who followed the proceedings on a livestream. The conference happened against a backdrop of the timely discussions on the risk of rising poverty and food insecurity to Sudanese people, the impacts of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, climate change, and global increase in fuel and commodity prices and the slow post COVID-19 recovery. |
| Keywords: | REPUBLIC OF THE SUDAN, EAST AFRICA, AFRICA SOUTH OF SAHARA, AFRICA, research, policies, food security, agriculture, stakeholders, agricultural transformation, |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:sssppn:3&r=cis |
| By: | Kirui, Oliver K.; Siddig, Khalid |
| Abstract: | On Monday, October 10th, 2022, the Sudan Strategy Support Program (Sudan SSP) held the inaugural full-day Research and Policy Conference dubbed “Agricultural Transformation and Food Security in Sudan†at the Corinthia Hotel in Khartoum, Sudan. This event was organized in partnership with local and international organizations working on the Food Security and Agricultural Transformation themes in Sudan. They include the Arab Organization for Agricultural Development (AOAD), Mamoun Behairy Centre for Economic and Social Studies and Research in Africa (MBC), Sudanese Researcher Foundation (SRF) and the International Center for Agricultural Research in Dry Areas (ICARDA). The conference brought together about 120 food security and nutrition experts from civil society, private sector, academia and international organizations and many other online participants who followed the proceedings on a livestream. The conference happened against a backdrop of the timely discussions on the risk of rising poverty and food insecurity to Sudanese people, the impacts of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, climate change, and global increase in fuel and commodity prices and the slow post COVID-19 recovery. |
| Keywords: | REPUBLIC OF THE SUDAN, EAST AFRICA, AFRICA SOUTH OF SAHARA, AFRICA, research, policies, food security, agriculture, stakeholders, agricultural transformation, |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:sssppn:3a&r=cis |
| By: | Bauer, Anja (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Gartner, Hermann (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Hellwagner, Timon (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Hummel, Markus (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Hutter, Christian (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Wanger, Susanne (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Weber, Enzo (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany ; Univ. Regensburg); Zika, Gerd (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany) |
| Abstract: | "Der Ukraine-Krieg und die damit ausgelöste Energiekrise haben die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung gedämpft, zugleich liegt der Arbeitskräftebedarf in Deutschland auf Rekordniveau. Der Kurzbericht gibt einen Ausblick auf die Entwicklung im Jahr 2023: Die deutsche Wirtschaft befand sich zu Beginn des Jahres in der Talsohle. Für den weiteren Jahresverlauf erwartet das Autorenteam eine moderate Erholung. Im Jahresdurchschnitt wird das Bruttoinlandsprodukt stagnieren. Der Arbeitsmarkt wird durch den wirtschaftlichen Dämpfer beeinträchtigt, zeigt sich aber bei hohem Arbeitskräftebedarf robust. Im Jahresdurchschnitt 2023 liegt die Zahl der Erwerbstätigen deutlich über dem Vorjahr. Die Arbeitslosigkeit wird ebenfalls steigen, auch aufgrund der Registrierung ukrainischer Geflüchteter. Die meisten zusätzlichen Stellen wird es im Bereich Öffentliche Dienstleister, Erziehung, Gesundheit geben. Das Erwerbspersonenpotenzial wird weiter steigen und bei der Arbeitszeit der Erwerbstätigen ist ebenfalls ein leichter Anstieg zu erwarten." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku) |
| Keywords: | IAB-Open-Access-Publikation |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iab:iabkbe:20235&r=cis |
| By: | Gan-Ochir Doojav (Bank of Mongolia); Munkhbayar Gantumur (Bank of Mongolia) |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the causal effects of the banking sector cleanup on lending conditions. To overcome the banking crisis consequences of 2014–2016, the National Bank of Ukraine changed its regulation approach to strict intolerance towards financially weak and opaque banks and launched the development of the macroprudential regulation concept. As a result, a significant number of banks, accounting for approximately one-third of pre-crisis banking assets, were declared insolvent or withdrawn from the market for other reasons. We analyze bank-firm-loan level data merged with information from borrowers' financial statements. Examining a significant set of loan, bank, and borrower characteristics, we cannot conclude that lending conditions have definitely tightened since the cleanup of the banking sector. On the one hand, banks reduce large exposures in response to stricter regulatory requirements, primarily for lending to related parties, thereby decreasing the loan amount on average. On the other hand, loan interest rates decline due to monetary policy easing. As the risks for banks gradually decreased over time, interest spreads also narrowed, which was reflected in lower loan prices. At the same time, banks deteriorate lending conditions for loss-making firms- loan size significantly decreases compared to the whole sample of firms, and interest rates rise. Furthermore, bank requirements for financial performance of corporates become more stringent and generally do not ease to pre-policy levels over time. Finally, the results suggest that the crucial factors for corporate borrowers to receive a loan from a new bank after their bank closure are firm profitability at the time of a new match and loans quality in closed banks. |
| Keywords: | Banking sector cleanup; Bank liquidations; lending conditions |
| JEL: | C21 C41 G21 G28 |
| Date: | 2023–04–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gii:giihei:heidwp06-2023&r=cis |
| By: | Pitukhina, Maria; Belykh, Anastasia |
| Abstract: | Дан актуализированный обзор мер поддержки коренных малочисленных народов в местах их традиционного проживания на территории Ямало-Ненецкого автономного округа (ЯНАО). Результаты социологического опроса в 10 общинах и 2 малых унитарных предприятиях ненцев и хантов позволили выявить основные проблемы коренных малочисленных народов в двух сферах — образования и рынка труда ЯНАО. Обзор открытых сообществ в социальных сетях также показал ряд острых социальных и экологических проблем, волнующих коренное население полуострова. Цель исследования — определить основные трудности коренных малочисленных народов ЯНАО (в сферах образования, рынка труда, социальные и экологические проблемы) и конструктивные моменты, связанные с улучшением положения и качества жизни коренного населения Ямала; предложить рекомендации, ориентированные на долгосрочное благополучие коренных малочисленных народов в местах традиционного проживания. Такой опыт будет полезен для как других арктических территорий, так и для широкого круга читателей. The article provides an updated overview of measures to support indigenous peoples in places of their traditional residence in Yamal. The results of a sociological survey of 10 communities and two (2) small unitary enterprises of the Nents and Khanty revealed basic problems of these indigenous peoples in such areas as education and the labor market in YNAA. A review of open communities in social networks also revealed a number of acute social and environmental issues that concern the indigenous population of the peninsula. The purpose of the study is to outline constructive measures for improving both situation and quality of life of indigenous people in Yamal and suggest recommendations focused on a long-term well-being of indigenous peoples in their traditional places of residence. Such experience would be useful for some other Arctic areas as well as for a wide range of readers of the Journal. |
| Keywords: | коренные малочисленные народы Севера; ЯНАО; общины; опросы; проблемы |
| JEL: | J1 R23 |
| Date: | 2023–03–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:116840&r=cis |
| By: | Jahen F. Rezki (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Syahda Sabrina (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Nauli A. Desdiani (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Teuku Riefky (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Amalia Cesarina (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Meila Husna (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Faradina Alifia Maizar (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)) |
| Abstract: | The continuation of supply chain disruption and energy shortage as the impact of Russia and Ukraine’s conflict in various parts of the world have put pressures on the global inflation and the economic recovery process. Domestically, it has started to have impact as the inflation rate is also expected to accelerate this month like its usual seasonal trend during Ramadan and Eid al-Fitr celebrations. However, the trade balance emerged as one of the windfalls from the prolonged increasing trend of commodity prices that could maintain Rupiah stability and economic growth from export channel, also contribute to the state’s revenue. Considering the current condition, we view BI should hold its policy rate at 3.50% this month. In addition, BI should maintain its pro-stability monetary stance and progrowth macroprudential policy during the current uncertain times. |
| Keywords: | gdp — economic — economic outlook — inflation — macroeconomics — interest rate |
| Date: | 2022–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lpe:gomeet:202204&r=cis |