nep-cis New Economics Papers
on Confederation of Independent States
Issue of 2023‒04‒24
twelve papers chosen by

  1. Republic of Tajikistan: 2022 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Republic of Tajikistan By International Monetary Fund
  2. Proposals for the G7 Hiroshima Summit based on Future Design ~International Governance for Global Public Goods~ By Yoshinori Nakagawa; Keiichiro Kobayashi; Ken Jimbo; Kazuhito Yamashita; Akiko Yoshioka, Tatsuyoshi Saijo
  3. A new era for the defense industry? Security policy and defense capability after the Russian invasion of Ukraine By Röhl, Klaus-Heiner; Bardt, Hubertus; Engels, Barbara
  4. Supply chains under pressure: How can data science help? By Thierry Warin
  5. Russia’s Dependence on Import of Intermediate Goods By Danila Karpov
  6. International Commercial Arbitration in Ukraine: Aspects of International Recognition of Jurisdiction By Anatoliy Kostruba
  7. Risques liés aux chaînes dâapprovisionnement : réalité vécue et perceptions de la population du Québec By Thierry Warin
  8. The Concept of the Serbian World: A Copy of the Russian World or a Unique Idea for the Multidimensional Cohesion of the Serbian People? By Ljubomirović, Aleksandar
  9. The housing market in a DSGE model for Kazakhstan By Akbobek Akhmedyarova
  10. South Korea's evolving Indo-Pacific strategy: Opportunities and challenges for cooperation with the EU By Ballbach, Eric J.
  11. Sectoral total factor productivity and its determinants: Firm-level evidence from Kazakhstan By Zarina Adilkhanova
  12. Georgia: Technical Assistance Report-Operationalizing the New Bank Recovery and Resolution Framework By International Monetary Fund

  1. By: International Monetary Fund
    Abstract: Strong growth continued in 2022 with minimal disruption from the war in Ukraine, while strong financial inflows supported domestic demand and liquidity. Although negative spillovers from the war have not materialized, it remains unclear to what extent Tajikistan will continue to be relatively unaffected by weaker economic activity in Russia.
    Date: 2023–03–28
  2. By: Yoshinori Nakagawa; Keiichiro Kobayashi; Ken Jimbo; Kazuhito Yamashita; Akiko Yoshioka, Tatsuyoshi Saijo
    Abstract: Humanity is facing various challenges today, such as the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the resulting energy and food security crises, the collapse of the global biogeochemical cycle systems including carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus, and the biodiversity collapse. Faced with such urgent challenges to survival, it is only natural that we would attempt to solve them with immediate and effective responses. However, future generations who will live decades from now may not necessarily regard these solutions as the best choices. Such concerns become real when discussions about the future are stifled by short-term interests of individual nations, preventing consensus-building and the development of creative visions for the long-term future. Therefore, various methods have been developed to design a long-term future to ensure the protection of the interests of future generations, who do not have a voice to negotiate with the current generation. One of these methods, Future Design (FD)—which systematizes the way policy makers imagine policies from the perspective of the future—has been gaining attention in recent years. We (authors 2–5) conducted discussions to simulate the adoption of the FD approach during the G7 Hiroshima Summit in 2023 when the participating leaders will respond to the impact of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. To this end, we developed a concrete image of what the international community will look like in 2053, and then envisioned a path for the international community to realize cooperation among various seemingly unrelated issues that will become linked within a span of 30 years. Based on this experience, we have the following proposals for the Heads of State and Government participating in the 2023 G7 Hiroshima Summit. In particular, we would like to emphasize that Heads of State or Government should strive to establish an international governance system to provide global public goods.
    Date: 2023–03
  3. By: Röhl, Klaus-Heiner; Bardt, Hubertus; Engels, Barbara
    Abstract: The Russian attack on Ukraine has brought the question of the German Armed Forces' operational capability back into focus. National defense, which seemed to play only a minor role with the end of the Cold War and the dissolution of the Warsaw Pact and the Soviet Union in 1991, now has gained a higher political priority again. In his government declaration of 27 February 2022, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz spoke of a turning point in time due to this war and announced a special fund of 100 billion euros to strengthen the country's defense capabilities. However, these extensive funds can only have a sustainable effect on security policy if the possibilities of the defense industry to supply new weapons systems and the possibilities of the Bundeswehr to use and maintain these weapons are brought into line. In 2020, the approximately 55, 500 employees in the defense industrial sector in Germany produced weapons, combat aircraft, warships and military vehicles for approximately 11.3 billion euros; both figures were lower than in 2015 despite Russia's occupation of Crimea in 2014. This policy paper therefore presents the status of plans to strengthen the Bundeswehr and classifies them in terms of security policy. In addition, the German defense industry with its sectors of aircraft and spacecraft, naval shipbuilding, combat vehicles as well as weapons and ammunition is portrayed and the increasingly important area of cyber defense is discussed. The policy paper concludes with defense policy and defense industry recommendations derived from the previous chapters. Recommendations include a long-term plan for strengthening the Bundeswehr and the German defense industry, stronger cooperation with European partner countries on defense projects to reduce dependency on the U.S. and including the defense industry in the European taxonomy for the financial sector, as its current status of non-sustainability threatens especially smaller and medium defense companies that are important for European security.
    JEL: H12 L64 L88 Z0
    Date: 2023
  4. By: Thierry Warin
    Abstract: The world has changed and companies are facing a perfect storm, with catastrophic risks that have a very low probability of occurrence, but for which the consequences are enormous. The war in Ukraine is impacting global supply chains already constrained by the COVID-19 pandemic. Ukraine is responsible for about 70% of the world's neon and Russia controls 44% of the world's supply of palladium, both of which are essential inputs in semiconductor production. Semiconductors are themselves essential to the manufacture of cars, smartphones or even medical equipment. With Taiwan producing nearly two-thirds of the world's semiconductors, China's move to reunify with the island of Taiwan raises significant concerns. In this complex geopolitical context, some companies are considering reshoring or nearshoring, i.e. the repatriation of specific activities within national ou regional borders. Is this the right solution or not? In this short text, Thierry Warin, Fellow CIRANO and responsible of the CIRANO Pole on Data Science for Trade and Intermodal Transportationfor argues that the solutions to recent complex supply problems must themselves be complex. We need to use the tools we have access to today: massive data, computing power and new methods of analysis. The global trade system must adapt to a new technological paradigm, that of artificial intelligence and data science. The alternative of using the same mental patterns as in the past and proposing binary solutions is no longer acceptable today. There is no more time to lose. Le monde a changé et les entreprises sont confrontées à une tempête parfaite, avec des risques catastrophiques dont la probabilité d'occurrence est minime, mais pour lesquels les conséquences sont énormes. La guerre en Ukraine a un impact sur les chaînes d'approvisionnement mondiales déjà limitées par la pandémie de COVID-19. L’Ukraine est responsable d’environ 70 % du néon sur la planète et la Russie contrôle 44 % des approvisionnements mondiaux en palladium, deux intrants indispensables dans la production des semi-conducteurs. Les semi-conducteurs sont eux-mêmes indispensables à la fabrication de voitures, de téléphones intelligents ou même d’équipements médicaux. Avec Taïwan qui produit près des deux tiers des semi-conducteurs du monde, la velléité de la Chine de procéder à la réunification avec l’île de Taïwan soulève d’importantes inquiétudes. Dans ce contexte géopolitique complexe, certaines entreprises envisagent le rapatriement de certaines activités à l’intérieur des frontières nationales — le reshoring — ou régionales — le nearshoring. Est-ce, oui ou non, la bonne solution ? Dans ce court texte, Thierry Warin, Fellow CIRANO et responsable du Pôle CIRANO en science des données pour les échanges commerciaux et le transport intermodal, soutient que les solutions aux problèmes complexes d'approvisionnement récents doivent elles-mêmes être complexes. Nous devons utiliser les outils auxquels nous avons accès aujourd'hui : les données massives, la puissance de calcul et les nouvelles méthodes d'analyse. Le commerce mondial doit s'adapter à un nouveau paradigme technologique, celui de l'intelligence artificielle et de la science des données. L'alternative qui serait d'utiliser les mêmes schémas mentaux que par le passé et de proposer des solutions binaires n'est plus acceptable aujourd'hui. Il n'y a plus de temps à perdre.
    Keywords: Supply chains, data science, relocation, international trade, global value chains, Chaînes logistiques, Science des données, Relocalisation, Commerce international, Chaînes de valeur mondiales
    Date: 2022–08–08
  5. By: Danila Karpov (Bank of Russia, Russian Federation)
    Abstract: This paper assesses the direct and indirect dependence of Russia’s economy on imported inputs across various industries. The author compares these figures with similar data for other economies. Additionally, we indirectly take into account the quality aspect of this dependence, that is, a small number of possibly critical components for industries that might exist. We assess both the direct dependence of industries and their indirect dependence resulting from consumption of other domestic sectors’ products also containing imported components. The findings of the research suggest that the dependence of the sectors of the Russian economy on imported inputs is relatively low, even though the share of imports for certain industries can be high in absolute terms. In most of the sectors, dependence on imports is the same as or does not exceed the average for a similar group of economies.
    Keywords: input-output tables, import dependence, intermediate goods imports
    JEL: C67 D57 F14
    Date: 2022–12
  6. By: Anatoliy Kostruba (Vasyl Stefanyk Precarpathian National University, Vilnius University [Vilnius])
    Abstract: La nature juridique de l'arbitrage commercial international en Ukraine est analysée dans l'article. La recherche est consacrée à la divulgation de l'essence et du fonctionnement de l'arbitrage. La question de l'arbitrage commercial international est extrêmement pertinente aujourd'hui et est que l'arbitrage commercial international est un moyen efficace, pratique et acceptable pour les parties comme moyen alternatif de résoudre les différends. L'augmentation rapide du nombre de différends économiques étrangers nécessite leur règlement efficace et impartial. Chaque année, l'arbitrage commercial international en Ukraine devient de plus en plus populaire en tant qu'organisme qui examine les litiges impliquant un élément étranger. L'auteur analyse les travaux scientifiques des scientifiques nationaux et les réglementations sur le fonctionnement de l'arbitrage commercial international. Les questions de conclusion d'une convention d'arbitrage, le principe de l'autonomie de la volonté, la procédure de formation des arbitres, les particularités de l'arbitrage, l'arbitrage, la reconnaissance et l'exécution des décisions des États étrangers sont examinés. Les questions d'arbitrage commercial international en Ukraine sont principalement liées à des tâches pratiques telles que la mise en oeuvre du litige par l'autorité compétente avec un maximum d'efficacité et de commodité pour les parties, la réduction des coûts, l'élimination des phénomènes négatifs qui compliquent l'exécution de la décision de justice.
    Keywords: arbitrage, contentieux, l'arbitrage commercial international, commerce extérieur, différends arbitrables, Kostruba, Litigation, Mediation, Commertial court
    Date: 2023–03–21
  7. By: Thierry Warin
    Abstract: The COVID 19 pandemic and the invasion of Ukraine have created major disruptions in several critical sectors of our economies. These phenomena are increasingly making headlines and attracting the attention of policymakers here and elsewhere. Supply chain bottlenecks create stock-outs, fuel inflation and undermine economic recovery (Dudoit, Panot and Warin, 2021, Gerefi et al., 2022, Warin, 2022). In Quebec, 80 % of manufacturers reported that they had faced supply chain problems and had to delay orders or increase prices (Manufacturiers et Exportateurs du Québec, 2022). This has implications for consumers. How are these phenomena perceived and experienced by the Quebec population? To answer these questions, we surveyed the population on the issues related to supply chains. The data collection was conducted online from June 28 to July 4, 2022 with a sample of 1000 respondents representative of the Quebec population. Translated with (free version) La pandémie de COVID 19 et l'invasion de l'Ukraine ont créé d’importantes perturbations dans plusieurs secteurs névralgiques de nos économies. Ces phénomènes font les manchettes et retiennent de plus en plus l’attention des responsables politiques ici comme ailleurs. Les goulots d'étranglement des chaînes d'approvisionnement créent des ruptures de stock, attisent l'inflation et fragilisent la reprise économique (Dudoit, Panot et Warin, 2021, Gerefi et al., 2022, Warin, 2022). Au Québec, 80 % des manufacturiers ont indiqué avoir été confrontés à des problèmes de chaîne d'approvisionnement et ont dû retarder l'exécution de leurs commandes voir augmenter leurs prix (Manufacturiers et Exportateurs du Québec, 2022). Cela a des répercussions sur les consommateurs. Comment ces phénomènes sont-ils perçus et vécus par la population du Québec ? Pour répondre à ces questionnements, nous avons sondé la population sur les enjeux reliés aux chaînes d’approvisionnement. La collecte de données a été réalisée en ligne du 28 juin au 4 juillet 2022 auprès d’un échantillon de 1000 répondants représentatif de la population du Québec.
    Keywords: Covid-19, War in Ukraine, Supply Chains, Consumer Impacts, Public Perception, Risks, Covid-19, Guerre en Ukraine, Chaînes d'approvisionnement, Répercussions sur les consommateurs, Perception de la population, Risques
    Date: 2022–08–25
  8. By: Ljubomirović, Aleksandar
    Abstract: The following article thematizes the newly-established concept of the 'Serbian World' which was initially propelled under the media spotlight in Serbia and the region of former Yugoslavia in 2020. Since becoming popular in the media discourse in both Serbia and the region, the term 'Serbian world' has not been studied or analysed properly nor has it been the topic of academic research as such. Therefore, the author of the thesis reconstructs the cognitive structure of the Serbian world concept in political discourses in contemporary Serbia and the region, using the methodology of cognitive semantics. Moreover, this article analyses the various meanings and dimensions of the 'Serbian World' concept and emphasizes how the concept is used by the various Serbian governments since the dissolution of Yugoslavia in order to develop a unique soft power concept to improve the image of Serbia regionally and internationally. Furthermore, the author analyses the historical roots of the terminology and the concept per se, but also focusses on its relation to the much more famous Russian counterpart - Russkiy mir. Overall, the article gives the first ever overview of the Serbian world concept in which the author concludes that the Serbian world represents a unique multidimensional, but also relatively fluid concept, used by various Serbian and regional social actors, often politicizing and misusing its true meaning.
    Keywords: Serbian World, Russian World, Soft Power, Foreign Policy, Concept, Discourse
    JEL: Z00
    Date: 2022–12–07
  9. By: Akbobek Akhmedyarova (NAC Analytica, Nazarbayev University)
    Abstract: In this paper, we build a DSGE model with the housing market, the non-resource sector and the endogenous oil production sector for an oil-exporting economy. We assess the role of housing market shocks in business cycle fluctuations for Kazakhstan. The model incorporates four key sectors and is estimated using Bayesian methods over the period from 2007Q2 to 2022Q1. We find that inflationary processes in Kazakhstan are mainly driven by shocks arising from housing and import markups. We also find that productivity and housing investment shocks are pivotal in explaining the disturbances in GDP growth. Impulse responses of the model show that a housing productivity shock exerts a stronger impact on output than a housing investment shock. We observe that a positive shock to an oil price leads to a negligible increase in output for all sectors except the non-resource sector, while its impact on inflation is limited.
    Keywords: DSGE; Housing market; Bayesian estimation; multi-sector; Kazakhstan
    JEL: C11 E30 E32 R21
    Date: 2022–09
  10. By: Ballbach, Eric J.
    Abstract: South Korea has been late to embrace the concept of the Indo-Pacific. Its strategic approach developed from initial neglect to mere tactic acknowledgment and careful engagement under the Moon administration (2017-2022), to the now clear support for a distinct Indo-Pacific strategy under the Yoon administration (since 2022). While South Korea's Indo-Pacific strategy represents an important step in formulating its own interests in the region, its implementation will be influenced by the larger strategic environment, the dynamic relationships between a network of different actors in the region, and the coordination of its approach with like-minded partners. Despite the Yoon administration's closer alignment of its Indo-Pacific strategy with that of the US, there are ample opportunities to strengthen cooperation between the EU and the Republic of Korea (ROK or South Korea) on the Indo-Pacific. This is a consequence of overlapping interests regarding the Indo-Pacific region, which are expressed through strong similarities in the respective strategy papers of South Korea and the EU. Building on a solid existing basis of bilateral cooperation enabled by their strategic partnership, cooperation between the EU and the ROK should now be deepened beyond their already well-developed bilateral frameworks within the economic realm to the wider field of security cooperation. As South Korea's and the EU's Indo-Pacific strategies highlight similar areas of action, economic security, maritime security and cyber security are the most likely issue-areas in which the two sides will expand their links.
    Keywords: South Korea, North Korea, Strategy for a Free, Peaceful, and Prosperous Indo-Pacific Region (SFPPIP), Moon Jae-in, EU, USA, Russia, China, New Southern Policy (NSP), Free and Open Indo-Pacific (FOIP)
    Date: 2023
  11. By: Zarina Adilkhanova (NAC Analytica, Nazarbayev University)
    Abstract: This paper analyzes total factor productivity and domestic competition among firms in Kazakhstan. We show that the total factor productivity in many industries falls significantly from 2009 to 2017. At the same time, 3 to 10 of the largest firms occupy a significant market share in most industries, demonstrating the elements of oligopolistic competition. The lack of market competition and the monopolization of markets prove to be barriers to productivity growth within sectors. We also estimate the impact of various financial indicators and variables such as subsidies, R&D, and transportation costs on firm-level TFP in Kazakhstan. The results demonstrate that increased investments, profits, wages, subsidies, and the presence of employees aged under 30 or with higher education have a significant positive effect on TFP. Moreover, the uneven distribution of subsidies among firms also contributes to the development of a monopoly in the market. Almost the same firms receive subsidies every year, which aggravates the market power of these firms. Statistics show that 5 companies in the market receive up to 80% of subsidies in manufacturing and agriculture.
    Keywords: Total Factor Productivity (TFP); Sectoral analysis, HHI, Concentration ratio
    JEL: D24 G30 O16
    Date: 2022–06
  12. By: International Monetary Fund
    Abstract: In response to a request from the National Bank of Georgia (NBG), the Monetary and Capital Markets Department (MCM) of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) conducted a Technical Assistance (TA) mission during September 5–16, 2022 as follow-up to the mission that took place during March 17–April 20, 2022. The first mission provided initial assistance to the authorities in operationalizing the new bank recovery and resolution framework, building on the recommendations from the 2021 Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP). This second mission deepened that assistance by providing further guidance on, among others, (i) the architecture of the resolution framework; including triggers, resolvability assessments, and resolution planning; (ii) the operationalization of key resolution tools (notably, by reviewing playbooks for the sale of business and bridge banks tools); (iii) data requirements for undertaking the valuations necessary to support resolution; (iv) resolution funding options; and (v) interagency coordination and communications. Moreover, the mission discussed potential impediments (and associated mitigants) to effective resolution and reviewed the NBG’s progress with the implementation of the recommendations on early intervention, the Interagency Financial Stability Committee, and other topics that were covered by the first mission.
    Date: 2023–03–22

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