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on Confederation of Independent States |
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Issue of 2023‒03‒20
28 papers chosen by |
| By: | Pies, Ingo |
| Abstract: | Gestützt auf den ordonomischen Ansatz geht dieser Aufsatz fünf Fragen nach: 1. Was ist Kriegspropaganda? 2. Warum ist sie erfolgreich? 3. Wie schlägt sie sich im aktuellen Diskurs zum Ukraine-Konflikt als Mainstream-Narrativ nieder? 4. Wie ist dieses Mainstream-Narrativ strukturiert? 5. Wie kann die Diskursblockade zwischen Mehrheitsund Minderheitsmeinung aufgebrochen werden? |
| Keywords: | Ordonomik, Diskursblockade, Krieg, ordonomics, discourse blockade, war |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:mlucee:202302&r=cis |
| By: | Barbashova N. E. (The Russian Presidential Academy Of National Economy And Public Administration); Deryugin A. N. (The Russian Presidential Academy Of National Economy And Public Administration); Komarnitskaya A. N. (The Russian Presidential Academy Of National Economy And Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | The subject of this research is the analysis of long-term budget forecasts of the constituent units of the Russian Federation. The relevance of the study is determined by the need to update the Methodological Recommendations of the Ministry of Finance of Russia on the preparation of long-term regional budget forecasts, which have not been updated since 2015. The goal of the study is to develop recommendations for the constituent units of the Russian Federation to improve the long-term budget forecasting. The scientific novelty of the study lies in identifying, based on the examination of subnational experience of foreign countries, “the best practices” that can be used in Russia for long-term budget forecasting, and analyzing the quality of existing long-term budget forecasts of the constituent units of the Russian Federation. The research method is the analysis of international and domestic experience of building budget forecasts, methods of grouping, system analysis and synthesis. This study used data from official websites of the foreign authorities responsible for long-term budget forecasting, as well as approved long-term budget forecasts of the constituent units of the Russian Federation, presented in the ConsultantPlus: Regions legal reference system and on the official Internet sites of the executive authorities of the constituent units of the Russian Federation. Based on the results of the study, recommendations were formulated for the regions of the Russian Federation to improve the quality of budget forecasting: increase of the forecasting horizon to at least 30 years, which includes short-term, medium-term and long-term components, with a description of each component’s features, modification of the composition and structure of long-term budget forecasts, determination of the relationship with the regional budget, medium-term budget forecasts, specifying the practical role of the forecast in political and budgeting processes. The authors conclude that a forecast should be used not only in its conventional form of a document approved by the regional regulatory documents, but also as a calculator with parameters (a set of formulas) for internal use by the regional financial authorities, used to assess the budgetary implications of the proposed measures and decisions and to calculate the limitations of budget parameters in the process of drafting the budget. Research prospects are to analyze the results of pilot implementation of the proposed approach to long-term budget forecasting in Russian regions. |
| Keywords: | tLONG-TERM FORECAST, LONG-TERM BUDGET PLANNING, FORECASTING METHODOLOGY, STRATEGIC PLANNING, BUDGET PROCESS, REGIONAL BUDGET, REGIONAL BUDGET POLICY, CONSTITUENT UNIT OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION, INTERNATIONAL EXPERIENCE |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:w2022058&r=cis |
| By: | Vladimir V. Klimanov (The Russian Presidential Academy Of National Economy And Public Administration); Sofia M. Kazakova (The Russian Presidential Academy Of National Economy And Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | Studying the development problems of the Arctic and the Far East has always been relevant due to the specific nature of these territories. At the same time, the existing support tools do not always consider this specificity, which is why the effects of their use are minimal. In this regard, the purpose of this study is to develop recommendations for improving the social and economic development policy tools for the Far Eastern and Arctic regions. This goal will be addressed within the framework of solving the following tasks: systematization of existing development tools, assessment of the economic and social effects of the measures applied, producing recommendations for the development or exclusion of existing tools. The study was conducted using the methods of content analysis, retrospective analysis, and classification. The sources of information included regulatory documents and strategic planning documents, scientific publications, analytical data, and official statistics. As a result, a list of measures for the development of the regions of the Far East and the Arctic was produced, and areas that required improvement were identified. The key findings are as follows. Most of the development tools are focused on stimulating economic growth and increasing investment appeal, rather than improving the demographic situation. The measures taken fail to translate into the expected economic and social effects. The number of specific and individual instruments for stimulating the socio-economic development of the Far East and the Arctic is insignificant. Some of the instruments duplicate each other, which entails uncertainty when considering opportunities for capital investments, disorienting potential investors. As recommendations, it is proposed to review the list of instruments towards greater social support, development of individual mechanisms, and unification of territorial development instruments with overlapping scopes. |
| Keywords: | Far East, Far Eastern Federal District, Arctic zone of the Russian Federation, regions of Russia, development tools, territories of advanced social and economic development, special economic zones, Free Port of Vladivostok, Far Eastern Hectare, Arctic Hectare, Far Eastern Mortgage, state program |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:w2022053&r=cis |
| By: | Levashenko A.D. (The Russian Presidential Academy Of National Economy And Public Administration); I.Ermokhin (The Russian Presidential Academy Of National Economy And Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the impact of international standards for responsible business conduct on the financial sector in the world and in Russia, and formulates proposals for the development of regulation in Russia. The relevance of the work lies in the need to analyze the impact of international standards for responsible business conduct on the financial sector in the world and in Russia, as well as to formulate proposals for the development of appropriate regulation in Russia. The study was conducted in 2021. The object of the study is the standards for responsible business conduct in the financial sector. The goal of the study is to analyze the impact of international standards for responsible business conduct on the financial sector in the world and in Russia, and to formulate proposals for the development of regulation in Russia. The following results were obtained: an analysis of the recommendations and standards of international organizations, including the OECD, related to responsible business conduct in the financial sector and their impact on access to financing for Russian companies; an analysis of the approaches of the OECD member countries, including the EU, France, Japan, Canada, and other countries, including China, to the regulation of responsible business conduct in the financial sector and the impact of the regulations adopted by these countries on the Russian companies’ access to financing; an analysis of the practices of legal regulation of responsible business conduct in the financial sector in Russia and their impact on access to finance for Russian companies; formulated proposals for the development of legal regulation of responsible business conduct in the financial sector in Russia in order to ensure access to financing for Russian companies. The practical significance of the work lies in the possibility of using its results for the development of regulatory documents aimed at the development of sustainable (green) financing in Russia, the formation of Russia's position on the OECD platform in relation to the developed standards of responsible financing. |
| Keywords: | responsible finance, sustainable development, OECD |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:w2022066&r=cis |
| By: | Trotsuk Irina V. (The Russian Presidential Academy Of National Economy And Public Administration); Shagaida Nataliya I. (The Russian Presidential Academy Of National Economy And Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | The relevance of the study is explained by its design to constantly monitor the state and risks of food security in Russia, the importance of such monitoring ever increasing with the pandemic and a resulting decrease in household incomes. The objective of the study is to examine the degree to which the Russian society has achieved food security, not according to government programs and strategies of national development, but regarding the economic affordability of food for the population. The subject of the research is the Russians’ everyday food practices and their perception of personal and family risks in food consumption. By 2020, a sociological monitoring model was developed and successfully tested, which is a combination of two methods – a representative telephone survey (nationwide sampling) and ‘expert’ interviews (the longest conversations of interviewers with respondents are transcribed in order to identify explanations in respondents’ answers to the questions of the standardized formalized interview). The results of the study (sociological data) supplement the statistical and economic assessments of the possibilities and limitations of the stable functioning of the internal market given the global economy shocks. The study allows a more accurate assessment of the state of the domestic market under the rising prices and the government’s attempts to limit them. Thus, we can make the following conclusions: the Russians’ inconsistent self-assessments of food practices can be explained by two factors – Russians not only assess their past and present food-consumer practices, but also compare their life situation with those around them; before the pandemic, the food assortment began to expand, and in the difficult social-economic conditions, exacerbated by the pandemic restrictions, food became almost the only source of a sense of ‘normality’ and of bright exceptions in the routine. In recent years, Russians have developed a stable model of food consumption, primarily due to the objective factors – the expansion and strengthening of retail chains, the rise in food prices and the exhaustion of households’ self-supplying strategies. Financial constraints, i.e. economic access to food, are the main threat to the food security situation in Russia. The scientific novelty of the study is the proposed interdisciplinary nature at the theoretical level (a combination of economic and sociological approaches) and methodological triangulation (quantitative and qualitative survey methods) at the empirical level. The proposed approach and the results of its application allow to recommend that the country’s leadership abandon its calls and attempts to stop the rise in food prices, which is somewhat late and ineffective, especially under the pandemic, and focus on a differentiated approach to increasing the economic access to food, instead of punitive measures restricting price growth. |
| Keywords: | Food security, physical access to food, economic access to food, consumer practices, family budget of Russian households, sociological monitoring |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:w2022060&r=cis |
| By: | Korytin A.V. (The Russian Presidential Academy Of National Economy And Public Administration); Kostrykina N.S (The Russian Presidential Academy Of National Economy And Public Administration); Melkova E.V. (The Russian Presidential Academy Of National Economy And Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | The relevance of the work is explained by the amendments to the tax legislation related to IT companies in Russia, the so-called “IT maneuver” adopted in 2021. Income tax and social insurance benefits were increased, while VAT exemption was reduced. In September 2021, the Government of the Russian Federation approved the second package of measures to support the IT industry, which includes several tax measures. The purpose of the second package is to increase the demand for domestic IT products, to accelerate digital transformation of the economy and social sphere, as well as to create favorable conditions for doing IT business in Russia. In this regard, the subject of our study is the mechanism of taxation and measures of tax policy for IT sector. The goal of the study is to analyze the effectiveness of tax incentives for the development and sale of products of IT industry with the aim of increasing the export of high value-added services, as well as assessing the impact of benefits on insurance premiums on the development of the information technology industry in Russia. The research method consists in analyzing domestic proposals for stimulating the IT industry as part of the “IT maneuver” and comparing them with foreign approaches to the development of the IT sector. To analyze the effectiveness of tax incentives, we use an empirical estimation of the dynamics of IT enterprises’ economic performance, which is then compared between two samples: 1) a sample of enterprises enjoying the IT benefit, and 2) a sample of enterprises that don’t have any benefits. The findings show that companies enjoying the IT benefit on social insurance payments significantly outpace companies that did not have the benefit in terms of economic growth. We draw a conclusion that the IT benefits encourage the development of the IT industry. The recommendations are to continue the expansion of incentives for the IT industry as part of the “IT maneuver”, taking into account various comments. In particular, it is necessary to develop additional measures to support small businesses in the IT sector, as well as to develop a mechanism against the use of IT benefits for tax optimization purposes only. |
| Keywords: | Information technology industry, tax benefits, IT maneuver, IT benefits, social insurance payments, IP Box, economic indicators, empirical estimation |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:w2022063&r=cis |
| By: | Popova I. N. (The Russian Presidential Academy Of National Economy And Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | The relevance of the study is the need to prepare the Russian teachers to work with children in difficult life situations. This task is put forward by the Russian government’s policy in the field of education. The subject of the study is the specifics of providing professional support to teachers working with vulnerable children in the vulnerable categories. The objective of the paper is to study the problems of Russian teachers in working with vulnerable children and to analyze the specifics of the professional support provided to them. The study was based on the results of an online survey of teachers and the information content of the official websites of regional executive authorities in the field of education, additional professional education institutions and Children's Rights Commissioners in various regions of the Russian Federation. We analyzed thesis research on developing the readiness of Russian teachers to work with children in difficult life situations in 2001-2021. Research methods: analysis of information sources, online survey, and content analysis of Internet resources, systematization, analysis, and generalization of the results obtained. The scientific novelty of the study is based on the assessment of the current state of the professional support system for Russian teachers helping vulnerable children based on the materials of information, methodological and educational resources of 85 regions of the Russian Federation. This is the first time such a study is conducted in the Russian Federation. As a result, it was found that teachers working with vulnerable children and their families experience professional difficulties and shortage of legal knowledge (40%) and lack mastery of psychological and pedagogical tools (over 70%). Only one third of regional organizations in the field of additional professional education provide scientific and methodological support to teachers to address existing problems in working with vulnerable children. Information and methodological materials that provide professional support for teachers do not fully cover all categories of children in difficult life situations. Based on the information received, the main conclusion is that the system of professional support for teachers working with children of vulnerable categories needs to be purposefully designed taking into account the current situation. Recommendations: proper implementation of professional support for teachers requires ensuring the continuity of this process, including on an interdepartmental basis, stimulating the research in this direction, improving educational, information and methodological resources, and promoting a wider use of the best practices. |
| Keywords: | the work activity of a teacher; professional support of a teacher; additional professional education; the system of professional development of teachers; pedagogical support for children in difficult life situations; problems of teachers working with vulnerable children; information and methodological support for teachers; recommendations for improving professional support for teachers |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:w2022047&r=cis |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | The Republic of Moldova is continuously transforming, directly affected by regional and global events: the rise in the cost of energy and food products, the security crisis in the region created by the aggression of the Russian Federation in Ukraine, the reformation of value chains and even climate change affecting agricultural production. In this extremely difficult context, in addition to the short-term interventions needed to cope with the current crises, the Government has proposed to define a medium- and long-term development vision, in order to strengthen our resilience to future crises and create the basis for a sustainable and inclusive development of the country. |
| Date: | 2023–02–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2023/085&r=cis |
| By: | Chapkovski, Philipp; Zakharov, Alexei |
| Abstract: | Does the animosity toward a holder of an opposite political opinion or the behavior toward someone whose opinion on a divisive issue is unknown depends on whether that opinion was disclosed or withheld voluntarily? In order to study this question, we conducted a pre-registered study in Russia, measuring the pro-war dictators' behavior towards their partners with aligned or conflicting views on the war in Ukraine using give-or-take modification of Dictator Game. In the presence of a large polarisation gap (outgroup discrimination), we did not find that intentional vs. unintentional disclosure of the recipients' positions affected the transfers of the dictators; at the same time, dictators' beliefs about the share of war supporters among experiment participants and the donations made by other dictators were causally affected. Our study is the first one to consider this dimension of social interactions, and contributes to the quickly growing literature on political polarisation. |
| Keywords: | disclosure; transparency; polarization; dictator game; war in Ukraine; Russia |
| JEL: | C91 C92 D64 D74 D82 D83 |
| Date: | 2023–02–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:116305&r=cis |
| By: | Andrianady, Josué R.; Rajaonarison, Njakanasandratra R.; Rasolofomanana, Gherzino H. |
| Abstract: | The objective of this work is to analyze the impacts of the war between Russia and Ukraine on the Malagasy economy. The main channel of transmission of the shock resulting from this tension is the variation in the price of oil, which will generate a deterioration in the balance of payments and a general increase in the price of raw materials in the energy sector and the transport of goods, which remains dependent on oil. In response, diversifying the sources of imports of essential goods and commodities such as energy and food seems attractive in the short term by strengthening intra-African trade. In the longer term, the energy transition is no longer an option but a necessity, as the country has the necessary potential in this area. Nevertheless, the path remains perilous in the sense that it requires significant capital. |
| Keywords: | Russia-Ukraine conflict, international economy, Madagascar |
| JEL: | F16 G00 |
| Date: | 2022–02–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:116463&r=cis |
| By: | Alina M. Grebenkina (The Russian Presidential Academy Of National Economy And Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | The anti-pandemic restrictions of recent years fueled an explosive growth of e-commerce in goods and services in Russia and worldwide. Therefore, the issue of macroeconomic consequences of the process of e-commerce growth is relevant. The subject of this research is economic transformation under the influence of the spread of e-commerce. The study aims to identify key theoretical mechanisms of how development of e-commerce influences main economic indicators, including inflation. It is based on the methods of generalization, systematization, descriptive and graphical analysis. According to the results of the study, e-commerce most notably influences aggregate factor productivity, the cost of production factors, consumer welfare, international trade volume and the cost of information for consumers. The study concludes that e-commerce causes predominantly downward pressure on prices and inflation, regardless of the mechanism of influence, because of a decrease in production and transport costs, reduction in the corporate monopoly power, and better product variety. This conclusion is also confirmed by some empirical countrywide studies. The scientific novelty of the research lies in systematization of the channels via which e-commerce influences various spheres of the economy. The study recommends considering the factor of downward pressure while conducting Russian monetary policy in the condition of continued e-commerce spread. A promising area of further research is the empirical verification of identified theoretical mechanisms of influence based on the data on e-commerce development in Russian regions. |
| Keywords: | e-commerce, inflation, information and communications technology, monetary policy |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:w2022031&r=cis |
| By: | Talapina Elvira V. (The Russian Presidential Academy Of National Economy And Public Administration); Yuzhakov Vladimir N. (The Russian Presidential Academy Of National Economy And Public Administration); Chereshneva Irina A. (The Russian Presidential Academy Of National Economy And Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | nforcing fundamental human rights is a constitutional obligation of the Russian Federation. In the digital age, the risks of human rights violations are increasing, making it increasingly relevant to implement a consistent state policy related specifically to data processing in public administration. The objective of this paper is to analyze the scientific and methodological approaches to enforcing fundamental human rights in data processing in public administration and the possibilities for consideration of human rights in the Russian public administration. The subject of the study includes scientific publications, court cases, international and national laws and regulations, including foreign countries. The study uses formal legal and historical legal methods, comparative legal method, method of legal interpretation, logical analysis, general scientific methods of classification and modeling. The results of the study are an analytical review of foreign and Russian scientific and methodological approaches to enforcing fundamental human rights in data processing in digital public administration; systematization of the basic legal grounds for enforcing fundamental human rights in data processing in public administration; the proposals for legal enforcement of fundamental human rights in data processing in the Russian public administration. The study allows drawing conclusions about the lack of attention in the Russian doctrine and practice to the issue of fundamental rights. Since Russian legislation in this area is based on the European model, the implementation of European approaches to data protection is recommended. It is necessary to create special legislation on data processing in public administration, to define the criteria for proper data processing and data storage, to differentiate the types of data collection and data processing, to ensure transparency. Based on advanced digital technologies, data processing rules in the public sector should be stricter and more transparent than in the private sector. The scientific novelty of the research is determined by insufficient regulation of data processing in public administration, where the constitutional function of enforcement and protection of fundamental human rights is not sufficiently regulated. Based on the results of the study, recommendations are to use the findings in the formation of an appropriate state policy to enforce fundamental human rights in data processing in the Russian public administration. |
| Keywords: | Public administration, big data, data, personal data, digitalization, human rights, data processing, artificial intelligence, algorithm |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:w2022054&r=cis |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | Jamaica has built a strong track record of investing in institutions and prioritizing macroeconomic stability. This aided the country to adapt to the difficult global environment of the past few years. The authorities provided targeted support to vulnerable households and firms during the pandemic but promptly scaled it back as conditions normalized. Similarly, in the wake of the war in Ukraine, domestic food and energy prices adjusted in line with shifts in international markets while targeted support was provided to the poor. |
| Keywords: | securities dealer; bank financial system; BOJ executive; head of the FSC; BOJ with the mandate; quarterly balance of payments; Climate change; Natural disasters; Government finance statistics; Global; Caribbean; Western Hemisphere |
| Date: | 2023–02–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2023/083&r=cis |
| By: | Mozgovaya Oxana (The Russian Presidential Academy Of National Economy And Public Administration); Temnaya Olga (The Russian Presidential Academy Of National Economy And Public Administration); Vasily Kuznetsov (The Russian Presidential Academy Of National Economy And Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | This paper presents the results of the study "Research of approaches to the consolidated interregional tariff formations implemented as part of the common state pricing policy in electricity industry”. The authors study the regional differentiation of electricity grid tariffs in Russia and reveal the principles of the consolidated interregional tariff formation. According to the results of the research, the electricity price differentiation factors occurring at the different pricing levels have been revealed. For non-household customers, the main factor of electricity price differentiation is the electricity network transmission tariff differentiation, which accounts for a high percentage of the electricity price structure. The regional differentiation between max and min electricity network tariffs could be as high as 400 to 800%. Practical recommendations for abandoning the electricity price differentiation as part of the implementation of the consolidated interregional tariff formation have been established. |
| Keywords: | interregional tariff |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:w2022039&r=cis |
| By: | Akimova V.V. (The Russian Presidential Academy Of National Economy And Public Administration); Mikhaylov A.A. (The Russian Presidential Academy Of National Economy And Public Administration); Semyonova R.I. (The Russian Presidential Academy Of National Economy And Public Administration); Zemtsov S.P. (The Russian Presidential Academy Of National Economy And Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | Economic activity is distributed unevenly, following human resettlement, so that high-concentration zones (large cities urban agglomerations) are combined with uninhabited lands. The relevance of the work is due to the close attention of the scientific community and governments to regional development. Scientific novelty is associated with the generalization of the factors of regional development. The objective of the work was to analyze the key theoretical approaches and empirical studies of the regional development factors. The text describes the main models of regional growth, analyzes the role of basic determinants, with a separate chapter devoted to entrepreneurial capital. In the course of the work, the following findings and conclusions were obtained: studies of regional development are widely covered in the literature, with several dozen regional development theories currently distinguished; each theory characterizes various aspects of this process. The determinants of regional development can be subdivided into factors of the first nature (those of natural origin) and the second nature (those of anthropogenic origin). The prospects and further areas of the study include an econometric assessment of the regional development factors in Russia (such as human capital, institutional conditions, technological development, etc.) and identification of new factors (embeddedness of entrepreneurship, influence of digital technologies, etc.). The paper is based on the materials of research work carried out in accordance with the RANEPA State Assignment for 2021. |
| Keywords: | regional development, regional growth, economic development, spatial policy, entrepreneurship |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:w2022046&r=cis |
| By: | Yuzhakov Vladimir N. (The Russian Presidential Academy Of National Economy And Public Administration); Dobrolyubova Elena I. (The Russian Presidential Academy Of National Economy And Public Administration); Pokida Andrei N. (The Russian Presidential Academy Of National Economy And Public Administration); Zybunovskaya Natalia V. (The Russian Presidential Academy Of National Economy And Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | Enhancing the government’s regulatory enforcement and oversight performance has been considered among critical measures aimed at improving the business environment in Russia; this makes the study relevant for the current governance agenda. The objective of this paper is to evaluate the dynamics of private businesses’ perceptions regarding the justified nature, efficacy, and efficiency of state oversight measures in 2017 – 2021. The subject of the study is the quality of state regulatory enforcement and oversight, including its rationality, efficacy, and efficiency. The key method used in this study is a representative sociological survey of private business entities conducted in 2021. The findings were then compared with those from similar surveys carried out in 2017 and 2020. The results presented in this paper include the analysis of businesses’ perceptions regarding all quality parameters of state regulatory and oversight interference (how justified, effective, and efficient it is). The study concludes that so far, the state regulatory system reform in Russia has not resulted in its performance being more effective (i.e., carrying lower risk of damage to the public values) or more justified. Notably, administrative costs borne by businesses due to state inspections have decreased due to a lower average cost per inspection as well as a reduction in the total number of inspections because of the anti-pandemic precautions, which included a moratorium on planned inspections of businesses. The novelty of the study has to do with the collection and analysis of new empirical data on how businesses assess the quality of the state’s regulatory enforcement and oversight activities. The recommendations based on the findings suggest the need for further improvement of both regulatory enforcement and state regulation proper. Both regulation and regulatory enforcement activities should focus more on minimizing the risks of damage to public values and on strengthening the positive impact of state oversight on supporting and improving the safety of business processes and production. |
| Keywords: | Evaluating effectiveness and efficiency, governance, justified government interference, public values, sociological survey, state regulatory enforcement and oversight, inspection |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:w2022050&r=cis |
| By: | GRACHEVA V.A. (The Russian Presidential Academy Of National Economy And Public Administration); PETROVA D.A. (The Russian Presidential Academy Of National Economy And Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | The Internet is a public source of information, where information can be found at minimum search cost. Social media are becoming increasingly popular among web users trying to find and analyze information about the current economic situation. Web users get the opportunity to exchange views or discuss various issues in the news communities of social networks. This information can be used by economic agents to make decisions. Thus, the study of user behavior in social networks makes it possible to identify the expectations and preferences of economic agents. The goal of this study is to assess the expectations and sentiments of economic agents based on textual analysis of social media data. The study addresses the following objectives: Analysis of the mechanisms of influence of the information dissemination and networking effects on the behavior of economic agents; Systematization of the results of theoretical and empirical analysis of the economic agents’ expectations; An overview of machine learning methods used in text processing; Development of an algorithm for identifying sources of information for web scraping and rules for selecting text information to create a body of posts and comments; Collecting a database and preparing posts and comments for text analysis; Application of topic modeling to the identification of topics and keywords in social media data; Assessment of high-frequency indicators of the public sentiment. The subject of the research is a quantitative assessment of the sentiment of web users based on Russian data. The novelty of the study is the assessment of inflation expectations, sentiments in the foreign exchange market and indices of economic conditions using structured and unstructured internet data. Methods: topic modeling; machine learning methods and econometric methods of time series analysis. The study is based on data for Russia in 2014-2021. The study shows that social media posts, search queries and online news articles can be good proxy variables for the economic agents’ expectations. We construct three types of public confidence indicators based on internet data: inflation expectations; sentiment in the foreign exchange market and index of economic conditions. The results of econometric analysis indicate that the quality of macroeconomic performance models with sentiment indicators is higher than without these indicators. Additionally, indicators based on VK posts, RBC news articles and Google Trends search queries are more informative compared to comments. The main conclusion of the study is that internet data can improve the quality of macroeconomic performance models. In a further study, we plan to expand the list of indicators of the sentiment of economic agents and to evaluate advanced time series models. |
| Keywords: | textual analysis; machine learning; inflation expectations; sentiment of economic agents; internet data; topic modeling; index of economic conditions; social networks; search queries. |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:w2022057&r=cis |
| By: | Dobrolyubova Elena I. (The Russian Presidential Academy Of National Economy And Public Administration); Shemonchuk Irina S. (The Russian Presidential Academy Of National Economy And Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | Digital transformation is one of the national development objectives for Russia up to 2030. Its key implementation instruments at the federal level are ministerial digital transformation programs. The performance objectives of these programs developed in late 2020 establish a medium-term digital transformation agenda. Therefore, it is highly urgent and relevant to analyze such programs. The goal of this paper is to evaluate the potential impact of ministerial digital transformation programs on improving the quality of public services and regulatory enforcement functions. The subject of the report includes 43 ministerial digital transformation programs for 2021 – 2023 published as of March 1, 2021. The paper uses qualitative and quantitative analytical methods, including performance management methodology assuming differentiation of impacts, intermediate outcomes, and outputs. The novelty of the study is related both to the novelty of ministerial digital transformation programs, which have not been the subject of scientific analysis to date, and application of a methodology for evaluating benefits from government digital transformation for external beneficiaries (i.e., citizens and businesses). The results include a review of ministerial digital transformation programs and the assessment of their potential impact on improving the quality of public service delivery and effectiveness of state regulatory enforcement. The paper analyses the expected outcomes of digital transformation of 322 federal public services and 82 regulatory enforcement functions. Conclusions. The study demonstrates that while the targets on broadening digital interaction with citizens and businesses are ambitious both in public service delivery and in regulatory enforcement and control domain, the impact of government digital transformation on citizens, businesses, and public administration itself is either underestimated or neglected. Digital transformation of federal executive authorities is deemed to be a goal in itself, not a means for improving the governance quality. The indicators used to measure the digitalization of public services and functions do not account for digital transformation risks, including possible extra administrative costs for businesses, associated with remote regulatory control. The recommendations developed based on the study findings suggest the need to correct the existing approaches to developing digital transformation performance indicators at the ministerial level and implementing the practice of cost-benefit analysis of digital initiatives in the public sector |
| Keywords: | business, budget expenditures, ministerial programs, public administration, citizen, costs, evaluation, performance, digital transformation, federal executive authorities |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:w2022042&r=cis |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | Strengthened economic recovery remains fragile amid high food inflation, driven by increased import costs following Russia’s war in Ukraine. High global oil prices are benefitting the Congo’s crude oil exports but higher refined fuel import costs were subsidized by the government, widening the 2022 non-oil fiscal deficit. Sustained reform efforts are needed for economic diversification, which would reduce Congo’s fragilities, create jobs, and raise incomes. Debt remains sustainable but classified as “in distress” due to arrears; a financing assurances review was conducted. The first review of the three-year Extended Credit Facility (ECF) arrangement (SDR 324 million, 200 percent of quota) was concluded by the IMF Executive Board on June 24, 2022. |
| Keywords: | IMF TA; PC table; quantitative Performance Criteria; overburdened staff; reorganization of the CCA; Arrears; Fiscal stance; Oil, gas and mining taxes; Global |
| Date: | 2023–02–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2023/089&r=cis |
| By: | N. G. Korol (The Russian Presidential Academy Of National Economy And Public Administration); A. A. Kurdin (The Russian Presidential Academy Of National Economy And Public Administration); A. A. Morosanova (The Russian Presidential Academy Of National Economy And Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | Digital transformation of industries and markets remains a key challenge for the modern competition policy. Digital ecosystems are playing increasingly important roles in the structure of the economy. That is why their regulation is becoming an especially relevant problem for antitrust regulators. The goal of this preprint is to identify key specific factors of competition restraints on markets for goods and services in the spheres of digital ecosystems functioning. The authors of the research aggregate and compare main concepts and models of digital ecosystems with a focus on procompetitive and anticompetitive factors of their activities. The authors also summarize main issues raised in the process of market behavior qualification and market structure assessment for artificial intelligence (AI) intensive companies (ecosystem leaders). These issues include enhanced market concentration, risks of price discrimination and algorithmic collusion. The main research method in this regard is the legal and economic analysis, which is based on the economic assessment of Russian and foreign legal documents. The specific challenge in that sphere is the dependence of AI efficiency on big-data-based machine learning. This feature causes an increase in market concentration, strengthens the positions of market leaders, and potentially weakens the competitive environment. The results of the research include the systematization of digital ecosystem concepts, the detection of main factors for their modeling and the identification of presumptions and consequences of the modernization of antitrust regulation. Antitrust bodies are recommended to improve their own digital competencies and analytical capabilities to prevent the loss of control over the market, as well as the elimination of AI benefits. |
| Keywords: | competition policy, antitrust policy, ecosystem, digital economy, platform, network effects, artificial intelligence, machine learning |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:w2022049&r=cis |
| By: | Haß, Marlen; Deblitz, Claus; Freund, Florian; Kreins, Peter; Laquai, Verena; Offermann, Frank; Pelikan, Janine; Sturm, Viktoriya; Wegmann, Johannes; Witte, Thomas$cde; Wüstemann, Friedrich; Zinnbauer, Maximilian |
| Abstract: | Dieser Bericht stellt ausgewählte Ergebnisse der Thünen-Baseline 2022-2032 sowie die zugrunde liegenden Annahmen dar. Die Thünen-Baseline beschreibt die erwarteten Entwicklungen auf den Agrarmärkten bei einer Beibehaltung der derzeitigen Agrarpolitik und Umsetzung bereits beschlossener Politikänderungen unter bestimmten Annahmen zur Entwicklung exogener Einflussfaktoren. Dabei beruhen die Berechnungen auf Daten und Informationen, die bis zum Frühjahr 2022 vorlagen. Die Auswirkungen des Russland-Ukraine Krieges werden nicht berücksichtigt. Dargestellt werden Projektionsergebnisse für Agrarhandel, Preise, Nachfrage, Produktion, Einkommen und Umweltwirkungen. Die Darstellung der Ergebnisse konzentriert sich hauptsächlich auf die Entwicklungen des deutschen Agrarsektors bis zum Jahr 2032 im Vergleich zur Situation im Basisjahrzeitraum 2018-2020. Im pflanzlichen Sektor gewinnt der Anbau von Ölsaaten bis zum Jahr 2032 an Wettbewerbsfähigkeit und wird deutlich ausgedehnt, was vor allem auf stärkere Preis- und auch Ertragssteigerungen im Vergleich zu Getreide zurückzuführen ist. Mit Blick auf die Entwicklung im Fleischsektor lassen höhere Umwelt- und Tierwohlstandards sowie sich ändernde Ernährungsgewohnheiten erwarten, dass sich der in den letzten Jahren beobachtete Rückgang der Erzeugung weiter fortsetzt, insbesondere in der Schweinefleischerzeugung, wohingegen die Geflügelfleischerzeugung bis zum Jahr 2032 noch leicht wächst. Eine positive Preisentwicklung am Milchmarkt in Verbindung mit einer weiteren Steigerung der Milchleistung führt außerdem zu einem moderaten Anstieg der Milchanlieferungen über die Projektionsperiode. Das durchschnittliche reale Einkommen landwirtschaftlicher Betriebe entwickelt sich über die Projektionsperiode rückläufig und liegt im Jahr 2032 deutlich unter dem mittleren Niveau der letzten zehn Jahre. |
| Keywords: | Agrarpolitik, Politikfolgenabschätzung, Modell, Modellverbund, agricultural policy, impact assessment, model, model network |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:jhtire:100&r=cis |
| By: | Yu.A. Pleskachev (The Russian Presidential Academy Of National Economy And Public Administration); Yu.Yu. Ponomarev (The Russian Presidential Academy Of National Economy And Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | Changes in all spheres of life due to the COVID-19 pandemic substantiate the relevance of this study. Its main objective was to assess the impact of the epidemic on the implementation of national projects and new national development goals. The subject of the research is theoretical and practical issues of building a system of strategic planning and monitoring of national goals, considering the consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic. The results show that updated national goals allowed setting the necessary accents, taking into account the impact of the pandemic; in particular, much more attention was paid to digital transformation. The main conclusion, as shown by a detailed examination, is that updating the goals and adjusting the passports of national projects made it possible to increase their interconnection with each other, and updating the Unified Plan for Achieving National Goals helped identify gaps in the set of measures aimed at achieving national goals. These gaps areintended to be filled by social and economic development initiatives that have been assessed in terms of their impact on the progress towards the national goals. Further areas of research include assessing the attainability of national goals depending on the success of updating the passports of national projects. |
| Keywords: | monitoring, national development goals, national projects, social and economic development |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:w2022013&r=cis |
| By: | Charlotte Fontan Sers (ESC PAU - Ecole Supérieure de Commerce, Pau Business School); Mazhar Mughal (ESC PAU - Ecole Supérieure de Commerce, Pau Business School) |
| Abstract: | The 2007-08 global food crisis led to hunger riots around the world. Food prices have again risen spectacularly since the Covid19 pandemic, but have fortunately not led to major social unrest in the global South. In this research note, we argue that the difference lies, in part, in the nature of the two price shocks, and in part, in the policy response from the governments and international organizations. This time round, the stability of rice prices appears to have dampened the impact of food inflation in major rice-importing countries. This pattern of global rice price is in sharp contrast to that seen in 2008 when the price tripled between January and May. The two food crises also differ substantially in the extent and responsiveness of public policy. Right from March 2020, governments began taking fiscal and administrative measures to help the populations suffering from the loss of livelihood. Nonetheless, food inflation remains a concern, and prolonged conflict in Ukraine and the ongoing inflation spiral could put in jeopardy the mitigating effects of the anti-inflationary policy measures. |
| Keywords: | Covid-19, 2007-08, food prices, riot |
| Date: | 2023–02–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03973284&r=cis |
| By: | Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens; Groll, Dominik; Hoffmann, Timo; Jannsen, Nils; Kooths, Stefan; Sonnenberg, Nils; Stamer, Vincent |
| Abstract: | Der deutschen Wirtschaft steht ein schwaches Winterhalbjahr bevor. Die hohen Energiepreise belasten die Kaufkraft der privaten Haushalte und dämpfen den privaten Konsum. Das welt- wirtschaftliche Umfeld ist schwach und liefert keine positiven Impulse für die Konjunktur. Seit dem Herbst haben sich die konjunkturellen Aus- sichten jedoch aufgehellt. Die Großhandels- preise für Gas und Strom sind in den vergange- nen Monaten deutlich gesunken - auch wenn sie sich nach wie vor auf hohem Niveau befin- den. Zudem sollen die Belastungen der privaten Haushalte und Unternehmen durch die hohen Energiekosten durch sogenannte Preisbrem- sen abgefedert werden. Insgesamt wird die In- flation im kommenden Jahr mit 5, 4 Prozent deutlich niedriger sein, als wir in unserer Herbst-Prognose erwartet hatten (8, 7 Prozent). Zwar werden die real verfügbaren Einkommen und in der Folge auch der private Konsum im kommenden Jahr wohl zurückgehen, allerdings wird das Minus deutlich geringer ausfallen als sich noch vor einigen Monaten abgezeichnet hatte. Im Ergebnis rechnen wir für 2023 nun mit einem leichten Anstieg des Bruttoinlandspro- dukts von 0, 3 Prozent (Herbst: -0, 7 Prozent). Im Jahr 2024 dürfte das Bruttoinlandsprodukt mit 1, 3 Prozent wieder etwas stärker zulegen (Herbst: 1, 7 Prozent). Der Arbeitsmarkt zeigt sich trotz der wirtschaftlichen Abkühlung robust, auch weil die Unternehmen nach wie vor hän- deringend nach Fachkräften suchen. Der Fi- nanzierungssaldo des Staates dürfte sich im kommenden Jahr aufgrund der Hilfspakete in Reaktion auf die Energiepreisanstiege deutlich verschlechtern und ein Defizit von rund 4 Pro- zent in Relation zum Bruttoinlandsprodukt auf- weisen. Mit dem Auslaufen der Hilfspakete wird sich das Defizit im Jahr 2024 wieder reduzieren. |
| Keywords: | Weltwirtschaft, Fortgeschrittene Volkswirtschaften, Schwellenländer, Energiekrise, Konjunktur, Deutschland, Fiskalpolitik & Haushalt, Arbeitsmarkt |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwkie:268802&r=cis |
| By: | Pitukhina, Maria; Belykh, Anastasia |
| Abstract: | В фокусе исследования национально-ориентированные (27) и социально-ориентированные (140) НКО 18-ти арктических моногородов. Был оценен объемом выигранных средств арктическими некоммерческими организациями за последние 5 лет. Были определены моногорода-лидеры в формировании гражданского общества в Арктике – это города Норильск и Северодвинск. На такое важное направление как «укрепление межнационального и межрелигиозного согласия» Фондом Президентских грантов за последние 5 лет арктическим моногородам не было выделено каких-либо средств. В ходе проведенного исследования сделан вывод о том, что Норильск является серьезным актором гражданского общества в Арктике – по числу зарегистрированных социально-ориентированных НКО (32), по количеству привлеченных грантовых средств (свыше млн рублей), а также по количеству получаемых грантов за последние 5 лет. Также Норильск является истинно межнациональным арктическим городом – лидером по числу зарегистрированных национально-ориентированных НКО (12), также занимает 1 место среди исследуемых моногородов по привлекаемым зарубежным трудовым мигрантам. The study focuses on nationally oriented (27) and socially oriented (140) NPOs in 18 Arctic monotowns. The volume of funds won by Arctic non-profit organisations over last 5 years was assessed. The leading single-industry towns in the formation of civil society in the Arctic were identified: towns of Norilsk and Severodvinsk. The Presidential Grants Fund has not allocated any funds to Arctic monotowns for such an important area as "strengthening of interethnic and interreligious harmony" over last 5 years. The study concludes that Norilsk is a serious actor of civil society in the Arctic – by the number of registered socially-oriented NGOs (32), by the number of grant funds raised (over a million rubles) and by the number of grants received over the past 5 years. Norilsk is also a truly inter-ethnic Arctic city – the leader in terms of the number of registered nationally oriented NGOs (12), and also ranks 1st among monotowns surveyed in terms of attracting foreign labour migrants. |
| Keywords: | РНФ, моногорода, Арктика, концепция жизнестойкости (resilience), НКО |
| JEL: | L3 |
| Date: | 2022–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:116314&r=cis |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | The Kyrgyz Republic is facing significant policy challenges stemming from multiple shocks: the anticipated spillovers from the projected contraction in Russia; the global slowdown; global financial tightening; and still-high food and energy prices. Strong output growth in 2022 was a positive surprise, but elevated inflation remains persistent, the current account and fiscal deficits have widened, international reserves have declined, and poverty has increased. In view of heightened uncertainty, policy buffers that were eroded in addressing the pandemic need to be rebuilt. |
| Date: | 2023–02–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2023/091&r=cis |
| By: | Kata Fredheim (Stockholm School of Economics in Riga; Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies); Marija Krumina (Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies); Anders Paalzow (Stockholm School of Economics in Riga; Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies); Zane Varpina (Stockholm School of Economics in Riga; Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies) |
| Abstract: | Research shows that return migrants have a higher propensity to set up an entrepreneurial activity or be self-employed compared to non-migrants. We take a multidisciplinary approach and empirically study the case of Latvia as a migration donor country to learn how re-migrants participate in entrepreneurship back at home. We are interested if foreign experience can be seen as a vehicle for entrepreneurial activity and if it is worth looking at return migrants as agents of business growth and innovation. Not only we measure the fact of being entrepreneurial, but also explore sources that contribute to the higher propensity, attitudes to creating own business venture, level of ambitions and population sentiment towards entrepreneurs. Based on a nationally representative adult population survey of 8000 observations, we find that early-stage entrepreneurial activity, established business ownership as well as intrapreneurship for return migrants exceed that of non-migrant population. We find that self-perceived capabilities to start business is higher for those who have lived abroad, and fear of failure is lower; re-migrants also have better businesses networks and have higher growth and export ambitions. The return migrant entrepreneurship in Latvia is not necessity driven, rather motivated by opportunities. Migration experience, length of stay aboard and capital accumulated abroad are found to be significant predictors of probability to become entrepreneur when controlled for socioeconomic and personal factors. |
| Date: | 2022–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bic:rpaper:10&r=cis |
| By: | Brunhart, Andreas; Geiger, Martin; Hasler, Lukas |
| Abstract: | Der vorliegende Wachstumsmonitor 2022 bündelt 75 Indikatoren, welche die langfristige Wachstumsentwicklung der liechtensteinischen Volkswirtschaft aus verschiedenen Blickwinkeln abbilden. In den letzten Jahren hat sich das langfristige Wachstum in Liechtenstein tendenziell weiter verlangsamt, obzwar das Wirtschaftswachstum in vielen Bereichen weiterhin ausgeprägt und das Wohlstandsniveau aussergewöhnlich hoch ist. Nach starken Wachstumsjahren Mitte der 2010er-Jahre ging das aggregierte Wirtschaftswachstum danach etwas zurück. Wesentliche Faktoren dafür sind die wenig dynamische langfristige globale Nachfrage sowie geringes Produktivitätswachstum. Darüber hinaus ist der Wachstumsausblick im Lichte der gegenwärtigen makroökonomischen Herausforderungen im Kontext des Ukrainekriegs, damit zusammenhängender Verwerfungen an den Energiemärkten und weltweit hoher Inflationsraten verhalten. Neben diesen makroökonomischen Herausforderungen bestehen Risiken in Hinblick auf die Nachhaltigkeit des Wirtschaftens in Liechtenstein. Trotz zahlreicher Willensbekundungen, schonender mit natürlichen Ressourcen umzugehen und die Nachhaltigkeit des Wirtschaftswachstums sicherzustellen, kann in den letzten Jahren keine ausreichende Trendumkehr beobachtet werden: Das hohe Wohlstandsniveau in Liechtenstein geht nach wie vor mit erheblichen Kosten für die Umwelt und Unsicherheiten für die langfristige Tragfähigkeit einher. |
| Keywords: | Liechtenstein, Volkswirtschaft, Wirtschaftswachstum |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esrepo:268766&r=cis |