nep-cis New Economics Papers
on Confederation of Independent States
Issue of 2023‒02‒20
twelve papers chosen by
Alexander Harin
Modern University for the Humanities

  1. Hawks and Doves: Financial Market Perception of Western Support for Ukraine By Matthias Neuenkirch; Maria Repko; Enzo Weber
  2. Own-source budget revenues in the regions of the Russian Far East By Aleksei Novitskii; Ilya Shevchenko
  3. The end of Londongrad? The impact of beneficial ownership transparency on offshore investment in UK property By Matthew Collin; Florian M. Hollenbach; David Szakonyi
  4. Deutschlands Energieversorgungsrisiko vor Russlands Angriff auf die Ukraine: Ein empirischer Vergleich mit den G7-Staaten By Frondel, Manuel; Hansteen, Sven; Krieg, Marielena; Schmidt, Christoph M.
  5. Entrepreneurship Policies of Central Asian Countries: The Cases of Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan By Yelena Muzykina
  6. Overview of the main trends in the execution of consolidated budgets of the regions of the Russian Far East in 2020-2021 By Aleksei Novitskii; Ilya Shevchenko
  7. Spatial differentiation of socio-economic development of the Far Eastern macroregion By Aleksandra Kislenok; Elena Sukhareva
  8. Navigating the energy trilemma during geopolitical and environmental crises By Richard S. J. Tol
  9. Labor Supply Shocks and Capital Accumulation: The Short and Long Run Effects of the Refugee Crisis in Europe By Lorenzo Caliendo; Luca David Opromolla; Fernando Parro; Alessandro Sforza
  10. Heterogeneity in the Pass-Through from Oil to Gasoline Prices: A New Instrument for Estimating the Price Elasticity of Gasoline Demand By Lutz Kilian; Xiaoqing Zhou
  11. Impact of the Ukrainian crisis on the global food security By Jean Cyrus de Gourcuff; David Makowski; Philippe Ciais; Marc Barthelemy
  12. Cara Menghadapi Resesi dalam Menjalankan Bisnis By , Angel2511

  1. By: Matthias Neuenkirch; Maria Repko; Enzo Weber
    Abstract: Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, the West has been intensively discussing its support strategy. Hawkish positions of strengthening Ukraine via armaments, financial resources, and sanctions against Russia compete with dovish views of avoiding further escalation of the military and geopolitical conflict. News from the war became a dominating factor for international politics and the world economy. In this paper, we analyse how international financial markets perceived this news, especially on Western positions. We create a comprehensive data set of news related to the war and measure reactions of five key financial markets. The results show that stronger support for Ukraine had a negative impact in the first weeks of the war. Thus, financial markets seem to have perceived it as a risk of further escalation threatening global economic activity. However, we find the perceptions strongly changed when the Ukrainian position in the war improved. Since that time, a hawkish line was a positive signal for financial markets. The results also confirm that the war and escalation in general had harmful effects on international financial markets.
    Keywords: Conflict, Event Study, Financial Markets, News, Russia, Sanctions, Ukraine
    JEL: G14 H56
    Date: 2023
  2. By: Aleksei Novitskii; Ilya Shevchenko (Federal Autonomous Scientific Institution «Eastern State Planning Centre»)
    Abstract: The current state and main trends in the development of tax and non-tax revenues of the consolidated budgets of the regions in the Russian Far East are considered. The structure of tax and non-tax budget revenues by types of taxes and types of economic activity is given. An assessment of the real growth rates of budget revenues in the regions of the Russian Far East for the periods 2013-2021 and 2019-2021 is given. The factors that negatively affected the volume of budget revenues are considered, such as the growth of tax expenses due to expansion of preferential taxation regimes, and the reduction in the share of tax revenues credited to regional budgets. An assessment of the volume and structure of tax revenues received by the federal budget from the territory of the Russian Far East is given.
    Keywords: budget system, consolidated budget, regional budget revenues, tax revenues, russian far east
    JEL: E62 H75 H76
    Date: 2022–12
  3. By: Matthew Collin; Florian M. Hollenbach; David Szakonyi
    Abstract: The United Kingdom's (UK) property markets are thought to be a common destination for corrupt and criminal assets and money laundering, with investment often through offshore shell companies. Following the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, we study the impact of the introduction of a policy in the UK intended to increase transparency and eliminate the anonymous ownership of property by requiring offshore companies to file their ultimate beneficial owners on a public register.
    Keywords: Money laundering, Real property, Ownership, Transparency, Tax evasion, Corruption
    Date: 2023
  4. By: Frondel, Manuel; Hansteen, Sven; Krieg, Marielena; Schmidt, Christoph M.
    Abstract: Der starke Anstieg der Energiepreise, der bereits im Jahr 2021 begann, und der russische Angriff auf die Ukraine im Februar 2022 haben die Sicherheit der Energieversorgung Europas in den öffentlichen und politischen Fokus gerückt. Dieser Beitrag quantifiziert vor diesem Hintergrund die spezifischen Risiken Deutschlands bei der Versorgung mit Erdöl, Steinkohle und Erdgas vor Russlands Angriff auf die Ukraine sowie das gesamte Energieversorgungsrisiko Deutschlands und ordnet es durch einen Vergleich mit dem der übrigen G7-Staaten ein. Im Ergebnis zeigt sich, dass das Risiko der Versorgung mit Energie dem von Frondel und Schmidt (2009) konzipierten Indikator zur Messung der langfristigen Energieversorgungssicherheit zufolge seit dem Ende der 1970er-Jahre stark gestiegen ist. Dies geht vor allem auf die massive Zunahme der Rohöl-, Steinkohle- und Erdgasimporte aus Russland bei einem gleichzeitigen Rückgang der heimischen Anteile an der Versorgung mit Erdöl, Steinkohle und Erdgas zurück. Der Beitrag illustriert, wie eine stärkere Diversifizierung der Importe von Energierohstoffen nach Bezugsländern sowie hinsichtlich der Energierohstoffe und -technologien die Versorgungssicherheit mit Energie erhöhen könnte.
    Keywords: Versorgungssicherheit, Diversifizierung
    JEL: C43 Q41
    Date: 2023
  5. By: Yelena Muzykina
    Date: 2023
  6. By: Aleksei Novitskii; Ilya Shevchenko (Federal Autonomous Scientific Institution «Eastern State Planning Center»)
    Abstract: The article is about the main trends in the execution of the consolidated budgets of the regions of the Russian Far East in 2020-2021. During this period, factors related to the COVID-19 pandemic had a significant impact on the dynamics of budget indicators. Differences between the Far Eastern regions in the structure of the sectoral economy and sources of budget revenues led to different reactions of budgets to the negative consequences of the pandemic. At the end of 2021, most regions of the Russian Far East were able to improve budget performance compared to the pre-crisis period. At the same time, a number of problems remain in the budgets of the Far Eastern regions, including low budgetary security, low self-sufficiency, lack of sustainable budget balance, and a relatively high level of debt burden.
    Keywords: budget system, consolidated budget, Russian Far East
    JEL: E62 H75 H76
    Date: 2021–12
  7. By: Aleksandra Kislenok; Elena Sukhareva (Federal Autonomous Scientific Institution «Eastern State Planning Centre»)
    Abstract: The article presents the results of a comparative assessment of the level of socio-economic development of municipalities in the Far Eastern subjects of the Russian Federation within the framework of a macroregion without considering regional affiliation. On their basis, 215 municipalities (municipal and urban districts) are grouped into three blocks: leading territories, catch-up development territories and lagging (problem) territories. The analysis of the territorial neighborhood of different types of municipalities was conducted.
    Keywords: territorial backwardness, evaluating socio-economic development, municipalities, Far Eastern Macroregion, spatial development
    JEL: P35 P25 O15 O21
    Date: 2022–12
  8. By: Richard S. J. Tol
    Abstract: There are many indicators of energy security. Few measure what really matters -- affordable and reliable energy supply -- and the trade-offs between the two. Reliability is physical, affordability is economic. Russia's latest invasion of Ukraine highlights some of the problems with energy security, from long-term contracts being broken to supposedly secure supplies being diverted to retired power plants being recommissioned to spillovers to other markets. The transition to carbon-free energy poses new challenges for energy security, from a shift in dependence from some resources (coal, oil, gas) to others (rare earths, wind, sunshine) to substantial redundancies in the energy capital stock to undercapitalized energy companies, while regulatory uncertainty deters investment. Renewables improve energy security in one dimension, but worsen it in others, particularly long spells of little wind. Security problems with rare earths and borrowed capital are less pronounced, as stock rather than flow.
    Date: 2023–01
  9. By: Lorenzo Caliendo; Luca David Opromolla; Fernando Parro; Alessandro Sforza
    Abstract: European countries experienced a large increase in labor supply due to the influx of Ukrainian refugees after the 2022 Russia invasion. We study its dynamic effects in a spatial model with forward-looking households of different skills, trade, and endogenous capital accumulation. We find that real GDP increases in Europe in the long term, with large distributional effects across countries and skill groups. In the short run, an increase in the supply of labor strains the use of capital structures that takes time to build. Over time, countries that build capital structures increase output, resulting in potential long run benefits.
    JEL: F1 F16
    Date: 2023–01
  10. By: Lutz Kilian; Xiaoqing Zhou
    Abstract: We propose a new instrument for estimating the price elasticity of gasoline demand that exploits systematic differences across U.S. states in the pass-through of oil price shocks to retail gasoline prices. We show that these differences are primarily driven by the cost of producing and distributing gasoline, which varies with states’ access to oil and gasoline transportation infrastructure, refinery technology and environmental regulations, creating cross-sectional gasoline price shocks in response to an aggregate oil price shock. Time-varying estimates do not support the view that the gasoline demand elasticity has declined in absolute value to near zero since the 1980s. The elasticity was stable near -0.3 until the end of 2014. It rose to about -0.2 in 2015-16, but has remained stable since 2016. Gasoline demand is more responsive in states with lower personal income, higher unemployment rates and lower urban population shares. There is no evidence for an asymmetry in the elasticity with respect to positive and negative gasoline price shocks. We illustrate how these elasticity estimates inform the recent policy debate about the impact of gasoline tax holidays on consumers’ discretionary income, about the demand destruction from the spike in gasoline prices after the invasion of Ukraine and about the impact of rising gasoline prices on carbon emissions.
    Keywords: price elasticity; gasoline; demand; Pass-through; taxes; identification; instrumental variables; Cross-sectional
    JEL: D12 Q41
    Date: 2023–01–06
  11. By: Jean Cyrus de Gourcuff; David Makowski; Philippe Ciais; Marc Barthelemy
    Abstract: Using global wheat trade data and a network model for shock propagation, we study the impact of the Ukrainian crisis on food security. Depending on the level of reduction in Ukrainian wheat exports, the number of additional individuals falling under the minimum dietary energy requirement varies from 1 to 9 millions, and reaches about 4.8 millions for a $50\%$ reduction in exports. In the most affected countries, supply reductions are mainly related to indirect trade restrictions.
    Date: 2023–01
  12. By: , Angel2511
    Abstract: Akhir-akhir ini, resesi 2023 menjadi perbincangan yang ramai dimana resesi bisa terjadi di negara manapun termasuk negara Indonesia. Sebelumnya, para ekonom dunia sudah memprediksi bahwa resesi akan terjadi besar-besaran pada tahun 2023 mendatang. Bank Dunia mengetahui penyebab terjadinya resesi 2023 yang dimana berasal dari bank sentral di seluruh dunia secara bersamaan yang menaikan suku bunga dan memiliki pemicu lainnya seperti pandemic Covid-19 melanda dan konflik Rusia-Ukraina. Hal tersebut yang membuat berbagai negara kesulitan dalam rantai pasokan komoditas yang diperlukan.
    Date: 2023–01–16

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