nep-cis New Economics Papers
on Confederation of Independent States
Issue of 2023‒01‒30
ten papers chosen by

  1. December report on progress of Ukrainian grains exports to Africa By Häberli, Christian; Kostetsky, Bogdan
  2. Motivations and locational factors of FDI in CIS countries: Empirical evidence from South Korean FDI in Kazakhstan, Russia, and Uzbekistan By Han-Sol Lee; Sergey U. Chernikov; Szabolcs Nagy
  3. Система краткосрочного прогнозирования ВВП методом конечного использования в Национальном Банке Республики Казахстан // The system of short-term forecasting of the GDP by expenditure method in National Bank of the Republic of Kazakhstan By Букенов Амантай; Самат Молдир; Тайбекова Аида
  4. Pope Francis's Interview: Religious Discrimination Against Buddhists, Shamans, And Muslims In The Hopes Of Christian Unity By Tulun, Teoman Ertuğrul
  5. Russia’s Reaction Against Greece's Hostile Behaviors And Violations Of The Demilitarization Provisions Of The 1947 Paris Treaty By Tulun, Teoman Ertuğrul
  6. Democratic Republic of the Congo: Third Review under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement, the Request for Modification of Performance Criteria and the Financing Assurance Review-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Democratic Republic of the Congo By International Monetary Fund
  7. Ukraine: Program Monitoring with Board Involvement-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Ukraine By International Monetary Fund
  8. Republic of Moldova: Technical Assistance Report-Performance Assessment Report By International Monetary Fund
  9. dampak perubahan resesi 2023 By Adzahra, Afifa Riflah
  10. 2023: Menuju Kehancuran Ekonomi Dunia By Aliandheart, Azwa Putri Macca

  1. By: Häberli, Christian; Kostetsky, Bogdan
    Abstract: We publish today the December report on the outcome of the project "Repairing Broken Food Trade Routes Ukraine – Africa”. It covers development of Ukrainian grain exports (including Africa and Middle East destinations) under the Grain Initiative and change of Ukrainian origin’ market share at main African importing markets. Report recaptures the December 2022 developments of grain export shipments from Ukraine and touches on competitive standing of Ukrainian production in context of subsidies practiced by competitive origins. We also shed more light on sea freight insurance changes and impact on increased costs born in supply chain. This project has received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme “Making Agricultural Trade Sustainable” (MATS) programme ( The role of MATS/WTI in this programme is to identify and explore “broken” Ukrainian - African food trade routes due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Starting with a food trade flow chart pre- and post-24 February 2022, it will assess, first, whether Ukrainian (or African) traders can again supply these products (Output 1). Failing that, whether the new EU-financed “Crisis Management” (or another) programme can possibly make up for lost Ukrainian agrifood exports (Output 2). It will also identify alternative exporters (if any) which might already have filled in agrifood demand in Africa (Output 3). Importantly, the Project also looks at the potential effect of these developments on competing farm production in Africa (Output 4). For further information and/or offer to assist in project implementation, please write to Christian Häberli ( or to Bogdan Kostetsky (
    Date: 2023–01–11
  2. By: Han-Sol Lee; Sergey U. Chernikov; Szabolcs Nagy
    Abstract: Considering the growing significance of Eurasian economic ties because of South Korea s New Northern Policy and Russia s New Eastern Policy, this study investigates the motivations and locational factors of South Korean foreign direct investment (FDI) in three countries in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS: Kazakhstan, Russia, and Uzbekistan) by employing panel analysis (pooled ordinary least squares (OLS), fixed effects, random effects) using data from 1993 to 2017. The results show the positive and significant coefficients of GDP, resource endowments, and inflation. Unlike conventional South Korean outward FDI, labour-seeking is not defined as a primary purpose. Exchange rates, political rights, and civil liberties are identified as insignificant. The authors conclude that South Korean FDI in Kazakhstan, Russia, and Uzbekistan is associated with market-seeking (particularly in Kazakhstan and Russia) and natural resource-seeking, especially the former. From a policy perspective, our empirical evidence suggests that these countries host governments could implement mechanisms to facilitate the movement of goods across regions and countries to increase the attractiveness of small local markets. The South Korean government could develop financial support and risk sharing programmes to enhance natural resource-seeking investments and mutual exchange programmes to overcome the red syndrome complex in South Korean society.
    Date: 2022–12
  3. By: Букенов Амантай (National Bank of Kazakhstan); Самат Молдир (National Bank of Kazakhstan); Тайбекова Аида
    Abstract: Из-за наличия широкого набора эконометрических подходов прогнозисты часто сталкиваются с проблемой выбора наиболее подходящей модели для прогнозирования ВВП определенной страны или региона. Для решения этой задачи в последнее время центральные банки все чаще стали прибегать к практике комбинирования различных прогнозов и моделей. В Национальном Банке на текущий момент также используется методика комбинированного подхода в краткосрочном прогнозировании ВВП Казахстана. Исследование описывает систему краткосрочного прогнозирования ВВП методом конечного использования Казахстана и показывает эффективность комбинирования прогнозов по различным эконометрическим моделям.
    Keywords: ВВП, краткосрочный прогноз, комбинирование прогнозов
    JEL: C01 C19 C82
    Date: 2022
  4. By: Tulun, Teoman Ertuğrul (Center For Eurasian Studies (AVİM))
    Abstract: In an interview with America Magazine, Pope Francis spoke of a "martyred" people of Ukraine and said that invading non-Russian ethnic soldiers are "probably the cruelest". Most Chechens are Muslims, while Buryats are Tibetan Buddhists and Shamans. The media's discriminatory treatment of non-Christian troops in the invading Russian Army is not a new phenomenon. There is no evidence to suggest that non-Christians have committed more serious crimes against humanity. Attributing Russian violence to soldier’s racial or religious background will not promote peace.
    Date: 2022–12–25
  5. By: Tulun, Teoman Ertuğrul (Center For Eurasian Studies (AVİM))
    Abstract: Russian Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova made a statement on 19 December 2022 regarding Greece's intentions to start supplying Ukraine with S-300 anti-aircraft missile systems. Ambassador Andrey Maslov, Ambassador of the Russian Federation to Athens, stated on July 26, 2022, "Since the end of February, our bilateral relations have been destroyed, they no longer exist". Greece increasingly pursues a revisionist policy in the Eastern Mediterranean region and Aegean. The Dodecanese were ceded to Greece with Article 14 of the 1947 Paris Treaty of Peace between the Allied Powers and Italy. It is a known fact that Greece continues to militarize these islands, openly violates an important Treaty that ended the Second World War.
    Date: 2022–12–28
  6. By: International Monetary Fund
    Abstract: Macroeconomic gains under the program so far are partly overshadowed by recurrent shocks. Due to the war in Ukraine and global economic developments, the Democratic Republic of the Congo is experiencing a terms-of-trade shock associated with rising energy and food prices (pushing inflation above 12 percent) and falling prices for mining products. Compounding these headwinds, the escalation of the armed conflict in the east of the country is having major negative economic, security and humanitarian effects, the magnitude of which—if the situation persists or worsens further—could jeopardize recent progress.
    Date: 2022–12–23
  7. By: International Monetary Fund
    Abstract: Russia’s invasion of Ukraine continues to have a devastating social and economic impact on the country. Civilian casualties are mounting, over a third of the population has been displaced, and access to basic needs such as electricity, water, and heating are at risk while winter is coming. Macroeconomic management has been exceedingly difficult. The fiscal deficit has ballooned to accommodate a large expansion of defense spending, financed by a combination of external support and monetization, with multiple supplementary budgets since the start of the war. The inflation targeting regime was replaced by a hard peg to the US dollar, supported by FX controls and a sizeable increase in policy interest rates. The exchange rate has come under episodic pressure (and was devalued by 25 percent in July), despite sizable external financing. Notwithstanding all these strains, the authorities have largely managed to maintain macroeconomic and financial stability, and they are committed to take necessary measures to preserve stability.
    Date: 2022–12–21
  8. By: International Monetary Fund
    Abstract: The State Tax Service (STS) has made good progress in enhancing services to taxpayers. A stable dispute resolution process and new tools for enhancing the quality of tax audit will lay a good foundation for an increase in public trust in Moldovan tax administration. The recent focus on establishing processes for business continuity to reduce operational and human capital risks shows a good level of preparedness to manage external hazards.
    Date: 2022–12–15
  9. By: Adzahra, Afifa Riflah
    Abstract: Ancaman resesi di tahun 2023 semakin nyata, kondisi saat ini diwarnai dengan berbagai risiko yang muncul seperti inflasi yang tinggi, kenaikan harga komoditas dan krisis pangan. Negara lain, terutama negara maju seperti Amerika Serikat dan Eropa, memiliki pengaruh yang lebih besar akibat efek perang di Rusia dan Ukraina.
    Date: 2022–12–17
  10. By: Aliandheart, Azwa Putri Macca
    Abstract: Resesi ekonomi adalah kondisi saat perekonomian negara tengah memburuk. Resesi terlihat dari Produk Domestik Bruto (PDB) negatif, pengangguran meningkat, hingga pertumbuhan ekonomi riil bernilai negatif selama dua kuartal berturut-turut. Ada beragam pemicu inflasi, contohnya seperti pandemi COVID-19 dan konflik Rusia- Ukraina yang menyulitkan rantai pasokan komoditas yang diperlukan berbagai negara. Akan tetapi, masih dicari tahu lagi mengapa tahun depan atau beberapa tahun ke depan itu bakal jadi tahun yang gelap.
    Date: 2022–12–17

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