nep-cis New Economics Papers
on Confederation of Independent States
Issue of 2023‒01‒09
76 papers chosen by

  1. The Global Sanctions Data Base – Release 3: Covid-19, Russia, and Multilateral Sanctions By Constantinos Syropoulos; Gabriel J. Felbermayr; Aleksandra Kirilakha; Erdal Yalcin; Yoto V. Yotov
  2. Quantity restrictions and price discounts on Russian oil By Henrik Wachtmeister; Johan Gars; Daniel Spiro
  3. 디지털 부문 혁신과 신북방 주요국의 구조 전환: 신북방 중진국과의 IT 협력을 중심으로(Development of the IT Industry and Structural Transformation: Focused on IT Cooperation with Russia, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan) By Jeong, Minhyeon; Min, Jiyoung; Jeong, Dongyeon
  4. Characteristics of migration flows and settlement of migrants in the South of Russia By Kazenin Konstantin
  6. Impact of the Russian ruble exchange rate on the prices of Russian exporters By Kuznetsov Dmitry; Firanchuk Alexandr
  7. Special Meeting on the Needs of the Agricultural Industry and as a Mechanism of Economic Policy in Russia at the Beginning of the 20th Century By Bespalov Sergey
  10. Study of the influence of various factors on the intensity and routing of imports to Russia and exports from Russia By Kuznetsov Dmitryi
  12. Regional measures to support the birth rate in the Russian Federation in the 2010s: dynamics of the main characteristics By Kazenin Konstantin
  15. International spillovers of social challenges as a result of sanctions against Russia: An evaluation of the Azerbaijani case By Niftiyev, Ibrahim
  16. Historical roots, cultural selection and the "New World Order" By Miller, Marcus
  17. Can Russia reorient its trade and financial flows? By Simola, Heli
  18. Bargaining for working conditions and social rights of migrant workers in Central and Eastern European countries (BARMIG), Comparative report By Agnieszka Kolasa-Nowak; Tibor T Meszmann; Karolina Podgórska
  19. Russia's catch-all nuclear rhetoric in its war against Ukraine: A balancing act between deterrence, dissuasion, and compellence strategies By Horovitz, Liviu; Arndt, Anna Clara
  20. Peace talks between Russia and Ukraine: Mission impossible By Fischer, Sabine
  21. Electrolysers for the hydrogen revolution: Challenges, dependencies, and solutions By Ansari, Dawud; Grinschgl, Julian; Pepe, Jacopo Maria
  22. Russia's war on Ukraine and the rise of the Middle corridor as a third vector of Eurasian connectivity: Connecting Europe and Asia via Central Asia, the Caucasus, and Turkey By Eldem, Tuba
  23. North Korea's fait accompli: Implications of the changing status quo on the Korean Peninsula By Ballbach, Eric J.
  24. The role of nuclear weapons in Russia's strategic deterrence: Implications for European security and nuclear arms control By Wachs, Lydia
  25. Russlands diffuse Nuklearrhetorik im Krieg gegen die Ukraine: Ein strategischer Balanceakt zwischen Abschreckung und Erpressung By Horovitz, Liviu; Arndt, Anna Clara
  26. Friedensverhandlungen im Krieg zwischen Russland und der Ukraine: Mission impossible By Fischer, Sabine
  27. Bidens Außenpolitik nach den Zwischenwahlen: Ringen um Ukraine-Unterstützung, zunehmendes Technologie-Decoupling von China By von Daniels, Laura
  28. Russlands Regionen und der Krieg gegen die Ukraine: Bei der Mobilisierung von Soldaten und der Bekämpfung der wirtschaftlichen Rezession setzt der Kreml auf die Loyalität regionaler Eliten By Hoppe, Sebastian
  29. Development of the IT Industry and Structural Transformation: Focused on IT Cooperation with Russia, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan By Jeong, Minhyeon; Min, Jiyoung; Jeong, Dongyeon
  30. European Economic Impacts of Cutting Energy imports from Russia : a Computable General Equilibrium Analysis By Sirgit Perdana; Marc Vielle; Maxime Schenkery
  31. How it can be done By Rüdiger Bachmann; David Baqaee; Christian Bayer; Moritz Kuhn; Andreas Löschel; Ben Mcwilliams; Benjamin Moll; Andreas Peichl; Karen Pittel; Moritz Schularick; Georg Zachmann
  32. Ethnic and regional inequalities in the Russian military fatalities in the 2022 war in Ukraine By Bessudnov, Alexey
  33. Monthly Report No. 06/2022 By Dario Guarascio; Philipp Heimberger; Ambre Maucorps; Bernhard Moshammer; Roman Stöllinger
  34. Assessment of the impact of agreements on the provision of subsidies to the constituent entities of the Russian Federation on the level of their socio-economic development and the quality of regional finance management By Deryugin Alexandr
  36. New Russian Economic History By Ekaterina Zhuravskaya; Sergei Guriev; Andrei Markevich
  37. Private Sanctions By Oliver D. Hart; David Thesmar; Luigi Zingales
  38. The politics of bank failures in Russia By Fungáčová, Zuzana; Karas, Alexei; Solanko, Laura; Weill, Laurent
  39. State-business relations and access to external financing By Tkachenko, Andrey
  40. The impact of the Ukraine crisis on international trade By Zsolt Darvas; Catarina Martins
  41. Die deutsch-tschechischen Beziehungen europäisch nutzen: Ein Bilateralismus mit Mehrwert für die EU By Eberle, Jakub; Lang, Kai-Olaf; Handl, Vladimír
  42. Warschaus konfrontative Deutschlandpolitik: Im bilateralen Verhältnis ist derzeit Konsolidierung, nicht Weiterentwicklung gefragt By Lang, Kai-Olaf
  43. Nach der Überprüfungskonferenz: Der NPT bleibt stabil By Schneider, Jonas; Horovitz, Liviu
  44. Politically motivated intergovernmental transfers in Russia: The case of the 2018 FIFA World Cup By Paustyan, Ekaterina
  45. Do China and Russia Undermine US Sanctions? Evidence from DiD and Event Study Estimation By Jerg Gutmann; Matthias Neuenkirch; Florian Neumeier
  46. Different Choices, Divergent Paths: Poland and Ukraine By Thorvaldur Gylfason; Eduard Hochreiter; Tadeusz Kowalski
  48. How deep are the deep parameters? By Fabrizio Ferriani; Andrea Gazzani
  49. Geopolitical Risk in the Era of U.S.-China Strategic Competition and Economic Security By Heo, Jaichul
  52. Who cares about sanctions? Observations from annual reports of European firms By Davydov, Denis; Sihvonen, Jukka; Solanko, Laura
  53. Smart Specialisation in the Eastern Partnership countries By Eloi Bigas; Nicandro Bovenzi; Enric Fuster; Francesco A. Massucci; Hugo Hollanders; Monika Matusiak; Ramojus Reimeris
  54. BUDGETARY SUSTAINABILITY: STATE IN RUSSIA By Mikhaylova Anna; Timushev Evgeny
  55. Language And Identity During Language Shift: The Case Of The Republic Of Karelia After 2018 By Mariia Lapina; Daria Oleinik
  56. Republic of North Macedonia: Request for an Arrangement under the Precautionary and Liquidity Line-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Republic of North Macedonia By International Monetary Fund
  58. Demand and growth regimes of the BRICs countries By Campana, Juan Manuel; Emboava Vaz, João; Hein, Eckhard; Jungmann, Benjamin
  60. L’Espagne face au coup de la guerre en Ukraine By Christine Rifflart
  61. Nuklearmacht Nordkorea - ein Fait accompli: Warum die internationale Gemeinschaft den neuen Status quo akzeptieren sollte By Ballbach, Eric J.
  62. Tourismusanalyse: Sommernachfrage 2022 beinahe auf Vorkrisenniveau, gute Buchungslage zu Winterbeginn By Oliver Fritz; Anna Burton
  63. The Labor Market in Ukraine: Rebuild Better By Anastasia, Giacomo; Boeri, Tito; Kudlyak, Marianna; Zholud, Oleksandr
  64. Does a financial crisis change a bank's exposure to risk? A difference-in-differences approach By Mäkinen, Mikko
  65. French utilities committed to globalization (19th-21st centuries) By Hubert Bonin
  66. Sea change in EU trade policy: Opportunities for diversification in the Indo-Pacific By Hilpert, Hanns Günther
  67. Poverty, Unemployment and Displacement in Ukraine: three months into the war By Maksym Obrizan
  68. Анализ малого и среднего предпринимательства: Построение производственных функций с оценкой эффективных фондов By Gorbunov, Vladimir; Lvov, Alexander
  69. Collective emotions and macro-level shocks: COVID-19 vs the Ukrainian war By Rossouw, Stephanié; Greyling, Talita
  70. A cost-of-living squeeze? Distributional implications of rising inflation By Orsetta Causa; Emilia Soldani; Nhung Luu; Chiara Soriolo
  71. Armut grenzt aus: WSI-Verteilungsbericht 2022 By Spannagel, Dorothee; Zucco, Aline
  72. Botswana's economy and the question of diversification By Schilirò, Daniele
  73. Covid-19 vaccine efficacy and Russian public support for anti-pandemic measures By Borisova, Ekaterina; Ivanov, Denis S.
  74. Greece: 1821 Celebrations, Tripolitsa Massacre, BBC And Fake News By Tulun, Teoman Ertuğrul
  75. Pricing farmer contributions under AIP By Banda, Chimwemwe; De Weerdt, Joachim; Duchoslav, Jan; Jolex, Aubrey
  76. Heißer Herbst revisited? Eine unruhige Mitte auf dem Weg zum Protest By Bongartz, Bärbel

  1. By: Constantinos Syropoulos; Gabriel J. Felbermayr; Aleksandra Kirilakha; Erdal Yalcin; Yoto V. Yotov
    Abstract: This paper introduces the third update/release of the Global Sanctions Data Base (GSDB-R3). The GSDB-R3 extends the period of coverage from 1950-2019 to 1950-2022, which includes two special periods – COVID-19 and the war between Russia and Ukraine. The new update of the GSDB contains a total of 1,325 cases. In response to multiple inquiries and requests, the GSDB-R3 has been amended with a new variable that distinguishes between unilateral and multilateral sanctions. As before, the GSDB comes in two versions, case-specific and dyadic, which are freely available upon request at To highlight one of the new features of the GSDB, we estimate the heterogeneous effects of unilateral and multilateral sanctions on trade. We also obtain estimates of the effects on trade of the 2014 sanctions on Russia,
    Keywords: sanctions, Covid, Russia, multilateral sanctions, unilateral sanctions
    JEL: F10 F13 F14 F50 F51 H50 N40
    Date: 2022
  2. By: Henrik Wachtmeister; Johan Gars; Daniel Spiro
    Abstract: Following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Western countries have looked for ways to limit Russia's oil income. This paper considers, theoretically and quantitatively, two such options: 1) an export-quantity restriction and 2) a forced discount on Russian oil. We build a quantifiable model of the global oil market and analyze how each of these policies affect: which Russian oil fields fall out of production; the global oil supply; and the global oil price. By these statics we derive the effects of the policies on Russian oil profits and oil-importers' economic surplus. The effects on Russian oil profits are substantial. In the short run (within the first year), a quantity restriction of 20% yields Russian losses of 62 million USD per day, equivalent to 1.2% of GDP and 32% of military spending. In the long run (beyond a year) new investments become unprofitable. Losses rise to 100 million USD per day, 2% of GDP and 56% of military spending. A price discount of 20% is even more harmful to Russia, yielding losses of 152 million USD per day, equivalent to 3.1% of GDP and 85% of military spending in the short run and long run. A price discount puts generally more burden on Russia and less on importers compared to a quantity restriction. In fact, a price discount implies net gains for oil importers as it essentially redistributes oil rents from Russia to importers. If the restrictions are expected to last for long, the burden on oil importers decreases. Overall, both policies at all levels imply larger relative losses for Russia than for oil importers (in shares of their GDP). The case for a price discount on Russian oil is thus strong. However, Russia may choose not to export at the discounted price, in which case the price-discount sanction becomes a de facto supply restriction.
    Date: 2022–12
    Abstract: 본 연구에서는 IT 기술 혁신이 신북방의 핵심 협력국인 러시아, 카자흐스탄, 우즈베키스탄 경제에 갖는 성장 함의를 이론적으로 엄밀하게 분석한다. 아울러 위 세 나라의 IT 산업 발전 현황과 정부 육성 전략을 자세하게 살펴보고, 우리나라와의 IT 기술 협력 방향을 제안한다. 디지털 대전환 시대를 맞아 고부가가치 산업에서 신북방 국가와의 협력이 필요하다는 측면에서 북방경제협력에 새로운 돌파구를 제시할 수 있을 것이다. This study is designed as a primary study to objectively analyze the economic meaning and potential of digital sector cooperation with Russia, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan to derive implications for presenting new directions for promising cooperation. With the advent of the so-called “fourth industrial revolution era” just around the corner, the goal of the study is to discuss what the development of the digital industry means to the economies of the three countries, examine the characteristics of individual countries, and get policy clues on how cooperation with Korea should proceed in the future. To this end, this study performs the following four main analyses. First, the economic meaning of IT technology cooperation with three countries, Russia, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan, is viewed from the perspective of industrial transformation. Second, the effect of IT technology cooperation between Korea and Russia on the Russian economy is quantitatively estimated through the analytical framework of the structural transformation. Third, to supplement the limitations of theoretical discussions and derive customized cooperation directions for each country, we examine the current status and policies of the IT industry in the three new northern countries in detail. Fourth, we identify as objectively as possible which IT technology will have a high cooperation effect between Korea and Russia. Chapter 2 is the first chapter of the main topic and was conducted to achieve the first and second research objectives. Section 1 briefly discusses the traditional characteristics of the structural transformation based on the experience of high-income countries. Section 2 discusses why the traditional structural transformation is not well represented and often delayed, centering on the recentmiddle-income countries’ experiences. Section 3 examines the structural transformation of the three countries in the New Northern Region. Section 4 examines how IT technology innovation can play a role in solving the delay in the structuraltransformation. In order to analyze this economically, a theoretical model is constructed based on the intuition that IT technology innovation has a positive effect on improving productivity in theservice sector. (the rest omitted)
    Keywords: 경제협력; ICT 경제; Economic Cooperation; ICT Economy
    Date: 2022–02–21
  4. By: Kazenin Konstantin (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration)
    Abstract: This preprint examines the migration of the population of the regions of the South of Russia in the second half of the 20th - early 21st centuries. Migration processes are considered in two “dimensions”. On the one hand, their development is investigated in a historical perspective, in connection with which migration in the Soviet and post-Soviet times is considered separately. On the other hand, migration flows are opposed to each other in terms of "distance", for which intraregional and interregional migrations are separately characterized.
    Keywords: analysis of migration flows, demographic studies
    Date: 2021–01
  5. By: Vedev Alexey (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration)
    Abstract: The object of the research was the banking system of the Russian Federation. The main purpose of the study was to analyze possible strategies for the development of the Russian banking system to ensure economic growth.
    Keywords: bank system analysis
    Date: 2021–01
  6. By: Kuznetsov Dmitry (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Firanchuk Alexandr (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration)
    Abstract: The paper studies the mechanisms of influence of changes in the ruble exchange rate against world currencies on price dynamics of Russian exports.
    Keywords: export, prices, international trade, firms, price rigidity, exchange rates, heterogeneous firms’ theory.
    Date: 2021–01
  7. By: Bespalov Sergey (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration)
    Abstract: The paper deals with the organization and activities of the Special Meeting on the needs of the agricultural industry, created in Russia in 1902 on the initiative and chaired by S.Yu. Witte.
    Keywords: economic history, Russian economy early 20
    Date: 2021–01
  8. By: Zhemkova Alexandra (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration)
    Abstract: The paper proposes an approach to assessing the efficiency of resource allocation in the Russian economy.
    Keywords: resource allocation, resources, productivity, firm heterogeneity, allocative efficiency
    Date: 2021–01
  9. By: Mkrtchyan Nikita (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Florinskaya Yulia (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration)
    Abstract: The work contains a brief overview of the research directions of youth migration in the world and in Russia, and in its main part is devoted to the analysis of the directions and structural characteristics of youth migration - in general and within Russia.
    Keywords: youth migration, demofraphic analysis
    Date: 2021–01
  10. By: Kuznetsov Dmitryi (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration)
    Abstract: The study of the influence of various factors on the intensity and routing of Russian import and export flows is provided.
    Keywords: factor analysis, trade balance
    Date: 2021–01
  11. By: Klimanov Vladimir (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Kazakova Sofia (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration)
    Abstract: The study formulated the key principles and features of interregional cooperation in Russia, as well as the forms and features of horizontal interaction in order to develop recommendations for executive authorities.
    Keywords: interregional cooperation, horizontal interaction
    Date: 2021–01
  12. By: Kazenin Konstantin (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration)
    Abstract: The preprint systematizes information on measures to support the birth rate in the Russian Federation, acting at the regional level. The main attention is paid to measures provided at the birth of a third child, which include regional maternity capital, monthly allowances for families with three or more children, and the provision of land plots to large families. Changes in the regional system of measures to support families with three or more children from 2011 to 2019 are considered.
    Keywords: demographic policy, support for large families
    Date: 2021–01
  13. By: Vedev Alexey (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration)
    Abstract: The object of the research was socio-economic and financial-budgetary relations, as well as macroeconomic risks.
    Keywords: socio-economic relations, financial-budgetary relations
    Date: 2021–01
  14. By: Igor Gurkov (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Nikolay Filinov (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Zokirzhon Saidov (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: This study examines the behaviour of foreign manufacturing corporations in Russia in the first months after the launch of ‘a special military operation’ of Russia in Ukraine. While service companies and most of the largest industrial corporations operating in Russia announced different types of changes in their operations (e.g., self-restriction of investments, shortening the range of products, intentions to exit from Russian assets, etc.) as well as the temporary cessation of operations due mostly to logistical problems and the deficit of components, the operations of smaller industrial corporations were less affected by the political pressure and economic factors. Notably, less than 17% of the corporations that opened new factories between 2012 and 2019 in Russia announced self-restrictions on operations or intentions to exit from Russian assets. In this study, we reveal the factors that stipulate or impede the intentions to exit from Russian assets and indicate several factors that are missing in the extant literature on foreign subsidiary divestment
    Keywords: manufacturing subsidiaries; international crisis; foreign divestments; Russia
    JEL: M11 M16
    Date: 2022
  15. By: Niftiyev, Ibrahim
    Abstract: Since February 2022, a new phase of the war between Russia and Ukraine has begun. Apart from the direct consequences for Russia and Ukraine, all post-Soviet countries are affected, as Western sanctions against Russia significantly limit the economic development and cooperation prospects of the post-Soviet region. Azerbaijan is one of Russia's most important trading partners and a neighboring country, and there are serious concerns that these sanctions could have a negative impact on Azerbaijan's socioeconomic life. This is mainly because domestic production in Russia has declined, agricultural exports have been curtailed, and trade and transportation routes have been disrupted. Against the background of all these factors, the social impact of this situation seems to be dramatic. Therefore, this article analyzes qualitative data from social media and websites dealing with Azerbaijan's social challenges. To this end, expert opinions were analyzed using the thematic analysis method to examine the social impact of sanctions at three levels: people living abroad (migrants or expats), remittances, and the purchasing power of locals. The results show that there is a high expectation among experts that sanctions could have a negative impact on remittance flows from Russia to Azerbaijan due to the devalued Russian ruble. There is also a possibility that migrants working and living in Russia will return to Azerbaijan in greater numbers. Finally, experts agreed that the purchasing power of locals in Azerbaijan has declined due to sharp price increases that followed the production slump and export restrictions in Russia. These findings could support ongoing preparations for new socioeconomic realities in Azerbaijan as a result of Western sanctions against Russia. Now policymakers must develop a plan to quickly address Azerbaijan's social problems, even if it is not an emergency.
    Keywords: Azerbaijani economy,expert opinion,Russia,sanctions,social impacts,thematic analysis
    Date: 2022
  16. By: Miller, Marcus (University of Warwick, CAGE and CEPR)
    Abstract: Francis Fukuyama’s bold prediction that Western liberal democracy is ‘the final form of human government’ was promptly challenged by Samuel Huntington, who foresaw the future as a continuing clash of civilisations. This latter view has found support in the recent Beijing declaration by China and Russia of a ‘New World Order’ with distinct spheres of influence for different cultures. After discussing the contrast between such historical perspectives (of ‘immaculate convergence’ versus cultural diversity), we outline two accounts of how forms of governance emerge from competitive struggle ( either domestically or between nation states). However, to set the scene for applying these perspectives to current events, the paper begins with a summary of three eras of political economy post World War II - including the current ‘age of the strongman’, to use the terminology of Gideon Rachman. Subsequently, these various perspectives are employed to see what light they may throw on the disastrous turn of events following the Beijing declaration, with a focus on Russia, where the history of a powerful central state has played a crucial role. How enduring the Russian example may prove in the Darwinian struggle of cultural competition is, of course, a key issue for our time.
    Date: 2022
  17. By: Simola, Heli
    Abstract: Russia's invasion of Ukraine and resulting sanctions have substantially hurt Russia's economic relations with developed economies. Countries imposing sanctions on Russia accounted for half of Russia's foreign trade and over half of foreign financial flows before the war. We analyse the development of Russia's trade and financial relations in recent months and find that Russia's success in reorienting its trade and investment flows has been mixed.
    Keywords: Russia,Ukraine,sanctions,trade,FDI
    Date: 2022
  18. By: Agnieszka Kolasa-Nowak; Tibor T Meszmann; Karolina Podgórska
    Abstract: Since 2016 the former socialist EU Member States have experienced acute labour shortag- es, especially due to the outmigration of workers to labour markets in western EU states, but also due to demographic factors. The resulting labour shortage has increasingly been compensated for by employing migrant workers from neighbouring non-EU countries, espe- cially from Serbia and Ukraine. The BARMIG project’s original logframe was defined in 2019 to analyse developments in industrial relations in the six Central and Eastern European (CEE) states in order to address challenges and opportunities for trade unions and employer organisations stemming from the above-mentioned labour market developments. Due to the Covid-19 pandemic and the subsequent crisis, the plan of the project was modified also in order to incorporate the impact of Covid-19 on the labour markets in general, and more particularly its effect on the employment of migrant workers, along with reactions from social partners. The research analysed developments in the period between January 2016 and December 2021. The BARMIG project thus could not deal with the entirely new situation stemming from the Russian aggression on Ukraine and the war which also affects produc- tion, labour markets and employment of migrant workers in Central and Eastern Europe. Nevertheless, the final output of the project, the conference in April 2022, with the partici- pation of social partner organisations and renowned experts, also shed light on problems of migrant workers from Ukraine and Russia after February 2022. The basis of the comparative report are six national reports, covering developments in Croatia (Butković, Samardžija, and Rukavina 2022), Czechia (Martiškova and Šumichrast 2022), Estonia (Masso, Roosaar, and Karma 2021), Hungary (Meszmann 2022), Poland (Pol- kowska et al 2022) and Slovakia (ZEPSR 2022). These reports assessed constraints, opportu- nities and challenges for industrial-relations actors, which stem from the increased pres- ence of migrant workers in four traditional sectors – health care, construction, hospitality and retail services, and metal manufacturing, as well as services provided as part of the digitised economy (i.e. platform work). The national reports also analysed how, and with what capacities, trade unions and employer organisations in the six countries responded to these changes and challenges in general, and more particularly how collective bargaining and social dialogue tackled the issue of migrant workers. The labour-market integration of migrant workers from the countries neighbouring the EU – especially Ukraine and Serbia – was of particular concern to the research. The national reports mapped opportunities for trade unions and employer organisations to influence policy in the areas of migration, pro- tection and representation of migrant workers’ interests, fair employment, equal rights and integration of migrant workers, also through collective bargaining.
    Date: 2022–08–06
  19. By: Horovitz, Liviu; Arndt, Anna Clara
    Abstract: A close reading of Russia's nuclear statements and actions during the first seven months of its war against Ukraine reveals a threefold approach. Moscow is walking a fine line between a well-crafted and successful deterrence strategy to prevent foreign military intervention; a more modest and rather unsuccessful attempt at dissuading foreign aid to Ukraine and sanctions against Russia; and incremental nuclear coercion against Kyiv that spurred Western deterrence messaging in response. This analysis reveals a careful Russian approach, suggesting that cost-benefit calculations are likely to continue to render nuclear escalation unlikely. However, nuclear use cannot be fully discounted, particularly if war-related developments severely imperil the survival of Russia's regime.
    Keywords: Russia,invasion of Ukraine,nuclear deterrence,nuclear weapons,dissuasion,compellence,NATO,United States,military intervention,sanctions
    Date: 2022
  20. By: Fischer, Sabine
    Abstract: President Vladimir Putin escalated Russia's war on Ukraine in September 2022, announcing a partial mobilisation and repeating his threat to use nuclear weapons. But what really ended efforts to bring about peace - which had continued since the 24 February invasion - was the proclaimed annexation of the Ukrainian oblasts of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Cherson. Since his election in 2019, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has repeatedly called on Putin to agree to a personal meeting, even in the first weeks of this year's Russian invasion. But on 4 October 2022, in response to the actions of the Russian side, he signed a decree rejecting direct talks. Ever since the beginning of the Russian aggression in 2014, and all the more so since 24 February 2022, the course of Ukrainian-Russian negotiations has been highly dependent on the situation in the battlefield and the broader political context.
    Keywords: Russia,war in Ukraine,invasion,Istanbul Communiqué,Vladimir Putin,Volodymyr Zelenskyy,Petro Poroshenko,NATO,security guarantees,mobilisation,nuclear weapons,peace talks,Luhansk,Donbas,Crimea
    Date: 2022
  21. By: Ansari, Dawud; Grinschgl, Julian; Pepe, Jacopo Maria
    Abstract: Due to Europe's gas crisis and the Russian invasion of Ukraine, ramping up the hydrogen market has become more urgent than ever for European and German policymakers. However, ambitious targets for green hydrogen present an enormous challenge for the European Union (EU) and its young hydrogen economy. Apart from the demand for electricity, there is above all a lack of production capacities for electrolysers. The envisioned production scaling of electrolysers is almost impossible to achieve, and it also conflicts with import efforts and cements new dependencies on suppliers of key raw materials and critical components. Although a decoupling from Russia's raw material supply is generally possible, there is no way for the EU to achieve its goals without China. Aside from loosened regulations and the active management of raw material supply, Europe should also reconsider its biased preference for green hydrogen.
    Keywords: Russia,Ukraine,EU,climate and energy policy,REPowerEU,electricity,electrolyser,raw material,nickel,platinum-group metals (PGMs),polymer electrolyte membrane (PEM)
    Date: 2022
  22. By: Eldem, Tuba
    Abstract: Among the many significant geopolitical consequences of Russia's war against Ukraine has been the reinvigoration of the Middle Corridor, both as a regional economic zone comprising Central Asia, the Caucasus, and Turkey but also as an increasingly attractive alternative route between Europe and China. Russia's war has disrupted overland connectivity via the New Eurasian Land Bridge, also known as Northern Corridor, which passes through - now heavily sanctioned - Russian and Belarusian territory. While the Middle Corridor will not be able to fully replace the Northern Corridor, regional integration along the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route is likely to increase its potential at the expense of Russia in the long-term. Ankara's close cultural ties with the Central Asian republics combined with the latter's willingness to diversify their foreign relations away from Moscow and Beijing provide Turkey with greater leverage in the region. The EU and Turkey share a common interest in enhancing Eurasian connectivity for several reasons: to promote peace and prosperity in the South Caucasus and Central Asia, to enhance commercial access to Central Asia, to increase the resilience of European supply chains, and to diversify European energy supplies. Strengthening Eurasian connectivity would also work to balance Russian, Chinese, and Iranian influence in Central Asia.
    Keywords: Russia's war on Ukraine,Middle Corridor,Central Asia,Caucasus,Turkey,Northern Corridor,China,Belarussia,Azerbaijan,Kazakhstan,Uzbekistan
    Date: 2022
  23. By: Ballbach, Eric J.
    Abstract: While the world's attention is focused on Russia's war against Ukraine and the intensifying conflict between the US and China, the security situation on the Korean Peninsula has continued to deteriorate. North Korea is steadily advancing the expansion of its military capabilities and recently undertook significant changes in its nuclear doctrine. At the same time, the rapidly changing geopolitical context makes a resolution of the North Korean nuclear conflict even less likely. North Korea's unilateral change of the status quo on the Korean Peninsula poses a serious challenge to the international community, which has few options to counter this threat that is far too dangerous to ignore.
    Keywords: Russia,war against Ukraine,Korean Peninsula,security,geopolitical context,Taiwan,China,nuclear weapons,deterrence,Indo-Pacific,Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT)
    Date: 2022
  24. By: Wachs, Lydia
    Abstract: In the West, Russia's nuclear deterrence strategy is often described as one of 'escalate to deescalate'. The thinking goes that Moscow is prepared to use nuclear weapons at an early stage in a conflict in order to 'deescalate' and terminate the confrontation quickly in its favour. However, Russia's official military doctrine, nuclear exercises of the Russian military, and debates among political and military elites have so far pointed in a different direction. With the concept of 'strategic deterrence', Russia has developed a holistic deterrence strategy in which nuclear weapons remain an important element. Yet, to gain more flexibility below the nuclear threshold in order to manage escalation, the strategy also conceptualises a broad range of non-military and conventional means. Given Russia's dwindling arsenal of conventional precision weapons due to its war against Ukraine as well as the strategic adaptation of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), Russia's strategy is likely to change: In the coming years, Russia's reliance on its non-strategic nuclear weapons will probably increase. These developments could both undermine crisis stability in Europe and further impede the prospects for nuclear arms control in the future.
    Keywords: nuclear weapons,strategic deterrence,Russia,strategic deterrence,military doctrine,North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO),war against Ukraine
    Date: 2022
  25. By: Horovitz, Liviu; Arndt, Anna Clara
    Abstract: Russland verfolgt mit seinen nuklearen Drohgebärden im Krieg gegen die Ukraine eine dreigleisige Strategie. Erstens versucht es eine westliche Intervention abzuschrecken, zweitens Unterstützung für die Ukraine zu verhindern und drittens schrittweise Kyjiw zu erpressen, worauf der Westen bislang mit eigenen Abschreckungssignalen reagiert hat. Moskaus scheinbar vorsichtiges Vorgehen legt nahe, dass ein Kernwaffeneinsatz aufgrund von Kosten-Nutzen-Kalkülen unwahrscheinlich bleibt. Dennoch lässt sich ein solches Szenario nicht ausschließen, insbesondere dann nicht, wenn sich aus dem Krieg eine ernsthafte Bedrohung für Putins Regime ergeben sollte.
    Keywords: Russland,Ukraine,Invasion,Drohung mit Nuklearwaffeneinsatz,USA,Unterstützung für die Ukraine,Abschreckung,Nuleardoktrin
    Date: 2022
  26. By: Fischer, Sabine
    Abstract: Wladimir Putin eskalierte im September 2022 den russischen Krieg gegen die Ukraine. Er kündigte eine Teilmobilisierung an und wiederholte seine Drohung mit dem Einsatz von Nuklearwaffen. Es war aber vor allem die proklamierte Annexion der ukrainischen Gebiete Luhansk, Donezk, Saporischschja und Cherson, mit der er einen Schlussstrich unter die Friedensbemühungen seit dem 24. Februar 2022 zog. Wolodymyr Selenskyj hatte Putin seit seiner Wahl 2019 und auch in den ersten Wochen nach dem erneuten russischen Überfall immer wieder zu einem Gipfeltreffen aufgefordert. Am 4. Oktober 2022 erteilte er in Reaktion auf die Schritte der russischen Seite direkten Gesprächen per Dekret eine Absage. Die ukrainisch-russischen Verhandlungen seit dem Beginn der russischen Aggression 2014 sowie seit dem 24. Februar 2022 zeigen, wie sehr diese vom Kriegsverlauf, aber auch vom politischen Kontext abhängen.
    Keywords: Russland,Ukraine,Krieg,Friedensverhandlungen,Wladimir Putin,Wolodymyr Selenskyj,Minsker Vereinbarungen,Istanbuler Kommuniqué,Krim,Donbas,Donezk,Luhansk
    Date: 2022
  27. By: von Daniels, Laura
    Abstract: Die Ergebnisse der US-Zwischenwahlen werden innenpolitische Reformen erschweren. In der Außenpolitik behält Präsident Joe Biden jedoch einigen Handlungsspielraum, umso mehr wenn es zu einer Mehrheit im US-Senat reicht. Die Unterstützung der Ukraine kann er fortsetzen, allerdings vermutlich in engeren finanziellen Grenzen. In der gegenwärtigen wirtschaftlichen Lage werden sowohl die Republikaner als auch Teile der Demokraten auf eine restriktivere Fiskalpolitik drängen. In der China-Politik stärkt der Wahlsieg der Republikaner, die geschlossen eine harte Linie befürworten, die Hardliner in der Regierung Biden. Die Republikaner werden im Kongress das Technologie-Decoupling von China vorantreiben, auch gegen die Bedenken und Interessen von Verbündeten und außenpolitischen Partnern. Das erhöht den Druck auf die Europäische Union (EU), dem von Biden eingeläuteten noch restriktiveren Kurs gegen gegenüber China zuzustimmen. Diese Frage könnte im Rahmen des Trade and Technology Council (TTC) zum Streitpunkt werden.
    Keywords: USA,Zwischenwahlen,Midterms,Midterm Elections,Kongresswahlen,Repräsentantenhaus,Senat,Demokraten,Republikaner,Chinapolitik USA,China-Politik USA,Ukraine-Hilfen,Ukrainekrieg,Ukraine-Krieg,Technologie-Decoupling,Decoupling,Trade and Technology Council,TTC,Handels- und Technologierat,Beziehungen USA-EU,Kampf gegen Klimawandel,COP27,Sanktionen gegen Russland,Exportkontrollen,Investitionskontrollen,Infrastrukturgesetz,Antiinflationsgesetz,Anti-Inflations-Gesetz,Inflation Reduction Act,JCPOA
    Date: 2022
  28. By: Hoppe, Sebastian
    Abstract: Die Entscheidung Wladimir Putins, die Ukraine anzugreifen, traf die 83 Föderationssubjekte Russlands unvorbereitet. Nach acht Kriegsmonaten zeigen sich in den Regionen die unmittelbaren Rückwirkungen des Krieges und die Folgen westlicher Wirtschaftssanktionen. Der Kreml versucht, die Regionen insbesondere für die Mobilisierung von Soldaten, die Herrschaftssicherung in den besetzten ukrainischen Gebieten und die Eindämmung der wirtschaftlichen Rezession in die Pflicht zu nehmen. Dabei verteilt sich die Last des Krieges ungleich auf die Verwaltungseinheiten. Trotz Kriegszensur, Staatspropaganda und Massenemigration entlädt sich auf lokaler Ebene Unmut über die Folgen des Krieges und den Umgang mit den gefallenen Soldaten.
    Keywords: Russland,Russische Föderation,Regionen,Föderationssubjekte,Oblast,Okrug,Gouverneure,Teilmobilisierung,Rekrutierung,Burjatien,Ukraine-Krieg,Kommunistische Partei der Russländischen Föderation,KPRF,Ramsan Kadyrow,Alexander Beglow,Oleg Koschemjako,Sergej Ziviljow,Witali Saweljew,Igor Schuwalow
    Date: 2022
    Abstract: This study was designed as a primary study to analyze the economic significance and potential of cooperation with Russia, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan in the IT sector, and to derive implications for new directions between Korea and the three countries with the advent of the fourth industrial revolution era. The goal of the study is to discuss what the development of the IT industry means for the three economies, examine the characteristics of each country, and gain policy implications on how cooperation with Korea should proceed in the future. To this end, this study is consisted of the following four components. First, the economic significance of IT technology cooperation with Russia, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan is viewed from the perspective of structural transformation. Second, the effect of IT cooperation between Korea and Russia on the Russian economy is quantitatively estimated through the analytical framework of structural transformation. Third, to supplement the limitations of theoretical discussions and derive customized cooperation directions for each country, the current status and policies of the IT industry in the three countries are examined in detail. Fourth, IT technology subsectors promising for cooperation between Korea and Russia are identified, from the patent citation analysis and network analysis.
    Keywords: Structural Transformation; IT; Russia; Kazakhstan; Uzbekistan
    Date: 2022–06–22
  30. By: Sirgit Perdana (CMCS-EPFL - CMCS-EPFL - EPFL - Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne); Marc Vielle (CMCS-EPFL - CMCS-EPFL - EPFL - Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne); Maxime Schenkery (IFPEN - IFP Energies nouvelles - IFPEN - IFP Energies nouvelles, IFP School)
    Abstract: The recent economic sanctions against Russia can jeopardize the sustainability of the European Union's (EU) energy supply. Despite the EU's strong commitment to stringent abatement targets, fossil fuels still play a significant role in the EU energy policy. Furthermore, high dependency on Russian energy supplies underlines the vulnerability of the EU energy security. Using a global computable general equilibrium model, we prove that the current EU embargo on coal and oil imported from Russia will have adverse supply effects, substantially increasing energy prices and welfare costs for the EU resident. Although it reduces emissions, extending the embargo to include natural gas doubles this welfare cost. The use of coal is likely to increase, especially with respect to EU electricity generation, given the current constraints of additional import capacities from nonRussian producers. The impact on Russia once the EU extends the sanctions to natural gas is less substantial than on the EU. Russian welfare cost will increase less than 50%, indicating that extending the current restriction to boycott Russian gas is a costly policy option.
    Keywords: European Union, Russia, Computable General Equilibrium Model, Fit for 55 Package, Imports Ban
    Date: 2022–11–01
  31. By: Rüdiger Bachmann (UND - University of Notre Dame [Indiana]); David Baqaee (UCLA - University of California [Los Angeles] - UC - University of California); Christian Bayer (University of Bonn); Moritz Kuhn (University of Bonn, ECONtribute - ECONtribute: Markets & public policy); Andreas Löschel (RUB - Ruhr University Bochum); Ben Mcwilliams (Bruegel); Benjamin Moll (LSE - London School of Economics and Political Science); Andreas Peichl (LMU - Ludwig-Maximilians University [Munich]); Karen Pittel (LMU - Ludwig-Maximilians University [Munich]); Moritz Schularick (ECON - Département d'économie (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, University of Bonn, ECONtribute - ECONtribute: Markets & public policy); Georg Zachmann (Bruegel)
    Abstract: An end to gas supplies from Russia has recently become much more likely. Russian supply volumes have already been substantially reduced, and uncertainty about future supplies and the winter supply situation is high. In this study, we ask what the economic consequences would be of a complete halt to Russian gas imports at present (August 2022). Almost five months have passed since our first study, "What if" (Bachmann et al., 2022), on the economic effects of a March 2022 Russian energy import freeze. The debate sparked by the study has sharpened the focus on the issues and assumptions that are critical to estimating the economic costs of a Russian energy import freeze. In this study, we update the results based on the situation in August 2022.1 (i) We estimate the necessary demand reduction that would result if Russian gas imports were halted from August 2022 and discuss economic policy strategies to achieve this adjustment. (ii) We update our estimated expected economic costs and discuss practical examples of substitution options in the industrial sector. (iii) We evaluate the federal government's economic policy, in particular its decision to increase storage levels with continued gas imports from Russia since March 2022, but to largely forego measures to reduce gas demand in power generation, industry, and residential and commercial sectors.
    Date: 2022–08
  32. By: Bessudnov, Alexey
    Abstract: This paper explores ethnic and regional inequalities in mortality in the Russian army during the 2022 war in Ukraine. The analysis is based on a newly available data set containing the names of about 9,500 Russian servicemen killed in Ukraine from February to November 2022. The data set was collected by a team of volunteers from the social media and other available sources. There are large inequalities in the army mortality rates across Russian regions, with the highest mortality of soldiers originating from poor regions in Siberia and the Russian Far East and the lowest from Moscow and St.Petersburg. Some ethnic minority groups, in particular Buryats and Tuvans, are overrepresented among the fatalities, compared to their population share. Once regional inequalities are taken into account, ethnic gaps in mortality are reduced substantially. It is likely that ethnic fatality gaps are largely driven by socio-economic inequalities: young men in poorer regions see the career in the military as more attractive. The paper places these findings in the context of the previous research on inequalities in US military casualties.
    Date: 2022–12–10
  33. By: Dario Guarascio; Philipp Heimberger (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Ambre Maucorps (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Bernhard Moshammer (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Roman Stöllinger (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw)
    Abstract: Chart of the Month The role of capital regions in CESEE by Ambre Maucorps Opinion Corner Economic policy in Europe must not turn overly restrictive in response to inflation by Philipp Heimberger There are limits to what the ECB can do in response to the supply-side shock to energy and food prices. What is needed is a holistic anti-inflationary strategy, including fiscal and regulation policies. EU economic policy Is Ukraine going to put a spoke in it? by Bernhard Moshammer With the ongoing war in Ukraine, there is a wide range of new challenges for EU policy makers support for refugees, reconstruction of Ukraine, reducing energy dependence on Russia, and the need for greater defence spending. However, given the high inflation, there is a risk of repeating the mistakes of the economic and financial crisis of 2008/2009 and engaging in excessive austerity. The EU Recovery and Resilience Facility will certainly help stabilise the economy, but will it be – can it be – enough? Digital endowments and comparative advantage by Dario Guarascio and Roman Stöllinger Countries’ endowments with digital tasks and ICT capital will shape the digital transformation and determine comparative advantage in the digital era. By calculating endowment-based comparative advantage for 25 EU countries, we find that the underlying theory of comparative advantage (the Heckscher-Ohlin-Vanek theorem) holds. However, the EU’s leaders in terms of innovation are not necessarily those countries with an abundance of digital tasks and ICT capital; this may be due to the lack of digital leadership across the EU. Monthly and quarterly statistics for Central, East and Southeast Europe
    Keywords: capital regions, monetary policy, fiscal policy, inflation, economic and financial crisis of 2008/09, COVID-19 pandemic, fiscal austerity, war in Ukraine, Recovery and Resilience Facility, digital tasks, ICT capital, Heckscher-Ohlin-Vanek theorem, factor-content based comparative advantage
    Date: 2022–06
  34. By: Deryugin Alexandr (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration)
    Abstract: Subsidies for equalizing budgetary provision (hereinafter referred to as subsidies) make up about 80% of inappropriate interbudgetary transfers and are aimed at smoothing out the disparities in incomes that the regions have to independently resolve issues within their competence.
    Keywords: budgetary provision, subsidies studie
    Date: 2021–01
  35. By: Evgenii Zimin (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Maria Semenova (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: Bank de-branching is one of the key trends in banking sectors all over the world. This paper explores the conditions in which de-branching brings more profits to the bank. This issue is attracting considerable interest due to recent technological developments and increasing competition, including from fintech companies. Using the data from 84 Russian regions over the period of 2010–2020, we test whether the adoption of internet technologies and financial digital literacy (FDL) are positively related to bank de-branching and whether they add to bank de-branching efficiency in terms of bank profitability. We show that a higher degree of adoption of technological innovation and higher levels of FDL are positively related to bank de-branching. Furthermore, we observe that banks closing their branches in regions exhibiting higher levels of internet development and FDL gain more profits from de-branching. The results are robust to various model specifications
    Keywords: De-branching, Banks, Bank Profitability, Financial digital literacy, Innovations, Russia, Regions
    JEL: G21 G01 P2
    Date: 2022
  36. By: Ekaterina Zhuravskaya (PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Sergei Guriev (ECON - Département d'économie (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, CEPR - Center for Economic Policy Research - CEPR); Andrei Markevich (New Economic School - New Economic School)
    Abstract: This survey discusses recent developments in the growing literature on the Russian economic history of the 19th and 20th centuries. Using novel data and modern empirical methods, this research generates new insights and provides important lessons for development economics and political economy. We organize the discussion around four strands of this literature. First, we summarize and put in comparative perspective research on the long-term trends in economic development and living standards, which shows that throughout history Russia significantly underperformed advanced economies. We also compile reliable quantifications of the human cost of Stalin's dictatorship. Second, we discuss new studies of imperial Russia that partially confirm Gerschenkron's classic conjecture on the institutional explanation for Russia's relatively low level of economic development and on the causes of the revolution. The third strand of the literature focuses on the Soviet period and explains its slowdown over time and the eventual collapse of the system by the command economy's inability to provide incentives to individual agents. The fourth strand documents the long-term economic, social, and political consequences of large-scale historical experiments that took place during both the imperial and the Soviet periods. We conclude by discussing the lessons from these four strands of the literature and highlight open questions for future research.
    Date: 2022
  37. By: Oliver D. Hart; David Thesmar; Luigi Zingales
    Abstract: We survey a representative sample of the U.S. population to understand stakeholders’ desire to see their firms exit Russia after the invasion of Ukraine. 61% of respondents think that firms should exit Russia, regardless of the consequences. Only 37% think that leaving Russia is a purely business decision. If a firm does not conform with these desires, 66% of the respondents are willing to boycott it. This desire diminishes with the costs they face in boycotting. At $500, 43% would want to boycott. This propensity to boycott is high, even for participants who are told they have no impact, suggesting strong deontological concerns. Nevertheless, it is difficult to separate deontological and consequentialist motives to boycott, because subjects’ beliefs about “impact” are highly correlated with their willingness to act “whatever the consequences”. When we randomize beliefs about impact, we find a clear effect for shareholders, but not for the other stakeholders. We discuss what are the geopolitical and economic implications of a world where private corporations may discontinue profitable business relationships for moral or political reasons.
    JEL: F51 G30 L21
    Date: 2022–12
  38. By: Fungáčová, Zuzana; Karas, Alexei; Solanko, Laura; Weill, Laurent
    Abstract: Russia has witnessed a high number of bank failures over the last two decades. Using monthly data for 2002-2020, spanning four election cycles, we test the hypothesis that bank failures are less likely before presidential elections. We find that bank failures are less likely to occur in the twelve months leading up to an election. However, we do not observe election cycles in bank failures are more pronounced for banks associated with greater political costs. Overall, our results provide mixed evidence that political cycles matter for the occurrence of bank failures in Russia.
    Keywords: bank failure,election,Russia
    JEL: G21 D72 P34
    Date: 2022
  39. By: Tkachenko, Andrey
    Abstract: Firms' contractual relations with a state may give lenders a positive signal and facilitate access to debt. This paper studies the impact of public procurement contracts on ftrms' access to debt using an extensive survey of Russian manufacturing ftrms combined with accounting and procurement data. It shows that earnings from state-to-business contracts increase the short-term debt twice as much as revenue from private contracts. Long-term debt is not affected by public contracts differently compared to private contracts. The debt sensitivity to public contracts is four times larger for politically connected ftrms, although it is still positive and signiftcant for non-connected and small ftrms. The paper concludes that political connection does not entirely suppress the beneftcial access to debt that public contracts create.
    Keywords: public procurement,political connection,leverage,short-term debt,long-term debt,capital structure,Russia
    JEL: G18 G32 H57
    Date: 2022
  40. By: Zsolt Darvas; Catarina Martins
    Abstract: The direct aim of trade sanctions seems to have been achieved, while Russia’s capacity to finance the war from fossil fuel revenues is bound to shrink
    Date: 2022–12
  41. By: Eberle, Jakub; Lang, Kai-Olaf; Handl, Vladimír
    Abstract: Die deutsch-tschechischen Beziehungen fanden in den letzten Jahren wenig Aufmerksamkeit, standen sie doch im Schatten der großen europäischen und internationalen Krisen. Nachdem es 2021 in Berlin und Prag zu Regierungswechseln gekommen ist, hat sich das bilaterale Verhältnis spürbar intensiviert, auch weil der Krieg in der Ukraine eine verstärkte Abstimmung erforderlich machte. Deutschland und die Tschechische Republik weichen zwar bei einer Vielzahl europäischer Fragen voneinander ab, etwa in der Debatte über Zukunft, Erweiterung und Reform der EU oder bei der militärischen Unterstützung für die Ukraine. Gleichzeitig aber bestehen zahlreiche Schnittmengen, so dass die Unterschiede keineswegs unüberwindbar sind, zumal beide Länder in der Europapolitik nach wie vor einem pragmatischen Ansatz folgen. Im Gegenteil: Die Spannbreite der Positionen und ein konstruktiver Dialog können die deutsch-tschechischen Beziehungen zu einem der wenigen funktionierenden Bilateralismen mit europäischem Mehrwert machen.
    Keywords: Deutsch-tschechische Beziehungen,Europapolitik,Erweiterung der Europäischen Union (EU),Reform der EU,Russlands Krieg gegen die Ukraine,Demokratische Bürgerpartei (ODS),Premierminister Petr Fiala,Rede von Bundeskanzler Olaf Scholz an der Karls-Universität Prag (August 2022)
    Date: 2022
  42. By: Lang, Kai-Olaf
    Abstract: Die deutsch-polnischen Beziehungen befinden sich in einem Zustand von Dauerkonflikt und wechselseitiger Entfremdung. Eine Trias von Problemfeldern belastet derzeit das Verhältnis: die von Warschau erhobenen Forderungen nach Reparationen, Differenzen in der Reaktion auf Russlands Krieg gegen die Ukraine sowie Unstimmigkeiten in der Europapolitik. Das polnische Regierungslager hat gegenüber Deutschland eine harte Gangart eingeschlagen und betreibt eine antagonisierende Politik mit dem Ziel, den westlichen Nachbarn einzuhegen. Da 2023 die polnischen Parlamentswahlen anstehen, sind in dem Land bei Themen mit Deutschlandbezug weitere Zuspitzungen zu erwarten. Rehistorisierung, ein manifester "security divide" und Divergenzen in wichtigen EU-Fragen sollten aber den Blick auf Deutschlands Interessen in Bezug auf Polen nicht verstellen. Gerade in Zeiten von Krieg und externen Herausforderungen gilt für das bilaterale Verhältnis ein Konsolidierungsimperativ.
    Keywords: Deutsch-polnische Beziehungen,polnische Reparationsforderungen,Russlands Krieg gegen die Ukraine,Europapolitik,Versöhnungspolitik,Premierminister Mateusz Morawiecki,Recht und Gerechtigkeit (PiS)
    Date: 2022
  43. By: Schneider, Jonas; Horovitz, Liviu
    Abstract: Turnusgemäß hätte die 10. Überprüfungskonferenz des Nuklearen Nichtverbreitungsvertrags (Treaty on the Nonproliferation of Nuclear Weapons, NPT) 2020 stattfinden sollen. Nachdem sie viermal verschoben worden war, trafen sich die 191 NPT-Staaten im August 2022. Dass sie sich dabei nicht auf ein Schlussdokument einigen konnten, war spätestens seit der russischen Invasion der Ukraine erwartet worden. Indes spielte die Streitfrage der atomaren Abrüstung überraschenderweise keine Rolle für das Scheitern der Konferenz - obwohl die Polarisierung hierüber seit Inkrafttreten des "Nuclear Ban Treaty" (Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons, TPNW) Anfang 2021 noch gewachsen war. Die nichtnuklearen NPT-Parteien machten größte Zugeständnisse, um die Konferenz keinesfalls scheitern zu lassen. Erst Russland torpedierte den Konsens. Dieser Verlauf zeigt, dass in einer angespannten Weltlage atomare Abrüstung als Anliegen für die Nichtkernwaffenstaaten weniger wichtig ist, als sie suggerieren. Dass die Stabilität des NPT nicht von Abrüstungsfortschritten abhängt, ist eine gute Nachricht. Für Deutschlands Nationale Sicherheitsstrategie (NSS) bedeutet dies, dass aus Gründen des NPT größere Rücksichtnahme auf TPNW-Verfechter nicht nötig ist.
    Keywords: Nuklearer Nichtverbreitungsvertrag,Vertrag über die Nichtverbreitung von Kernwaffen,Atomwaffensperrvertrag,NVV,Treaty on the Nonproliferation of Nuclear Weapons,NPT,"Nuclear Ban Treaty",Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons,TPNW,Nationale Sicherheitsstrategie,NSS,Atomwaffen,Kernwaffen,atomare Abrüstung,nukleare Abrüstung,nukleare Abschreckung,Nato,Ukraine-Krieg,Ukrainekrieg,regelbasierte internationale Ordnung,nukleare Normen,nukleare Ordnung,Kernkraftwerk Saporischschja,Atomwaffenverzicht,Mittelmächte,Proliferation,Nonproliferation,Nichtverbreitung
    Date: 2022
  44. By: Paustyan, Ekaterina
    Abstract: This paper studies the distribution of politically motivated intergovernmental transfers in Russia focusing on the case of the 2018 FIFA World Cup. It investigates what factors have accounted for the selection of the 2018 FIFA World Cup venues. Qualitative Comparative Analysis of 14 cases reveals that well-connected political elites were able to secure the right for their regions to host the championship and, as a result, to extract additional funds from the center. These findings are in line with the argument that the regional governments in Russia play an important role in the distribution of politically sensitive transfers. Taking into account that these transfers have been increasing over the past years, there is no surprise that the regional elites have developed various lobbying strategies and mechanisms for attracting them.
    Keywords: Russia,politically sensitive transfers,Qualitative Comparative Analysis
    JEL: E62 L83 O23 P26 R11
    Date: 2021
  45. By: Jerg Gutmann; Matthias Neuenkirch; Florian Neumeier
    Abstract: A frequently employed argument against imposing international sanctions is that rival superpowers are likely to bust sanctions to simultaneously shield the target, harm the sender, and make a profit. We evaluate the legitimacy of this concern by studying the effect of US sanctions on trade flows between sanctioned and third countries during the period 1995–2019 using panel difference-in-differences estimations and an event study design. Motivated by the claim that China and Russia purposefully undermine US sanction efforts, we test whether target countries’ trade with China and Russia increases under US trade sanctions. We find no evidence for systematic sanction busting. Russia does not change its trade patterns with sanctioned countries. Trade of targets of US sanctions with China declines even more than trade with the US. These general patterns are reconfirmed for trade in different groups of commodities. In addition, we find some evidence that a reduction in industrial value added and a devaluation of the domestic currency of the target country are transmission channels through which US sanctions hamper trade with third countries.
    Keywords: geopolitics, international political economy, international sanctions, trade substitution
    JEL: F13 F14 F50 F51 F52 F53 K33
    Date: 2022
  46. By: Thorvaldur Gylfason; Eduard Hochreiter (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Tadeusz Kowalski
    Abstract: We compare the economic growth trajectories of Poland and Ukraine since 1990 to try to understand the extent to which the observed growth differentials can be traced to increased efficiency in the use of capital and other factors (intensive growth), rather than to simple accumulation of capital (extensive growth). We stress the role of qualitative factors such as education, governance and institutions. We ask whether the EU perspective and NATO membership played a role. We discuss the closely related histories of the two countries and note the stark differences between them, including their different approaches to the EU vs Russia, full vs incomplete transition to a market economy, and democracy vs anocracy, as well as different initial conditions. We compare key determinants of growth and growth trajectories, using economic as well as social indicators, and trying to disentangle efficiency and accumulation and combine path dependence and the role and scope of creative destruction. While Poland had the shortest and mildest transformation recession among CEE countries, Ukraine has been stagnant, or in decline, since 1990. The statistics we report and the stories we tell suggest that both countries have a complex relationship with democracy and that the nearly threefold difference in per capita GDP at PPP in 2021 in Poland’s favour, with the ratio of investment to GDP similar in both countries, can most plausibly be traced to (a) Poland’s more extensive and diversified exports, and fewer restrictions on trade, in addition to more comprehensive and quicker restructuring of the national economy inspired by the EU perspective; (b) Poland’s more extensive and better-quality education; (c) Poland’s greater democracy and longer experience of democracy, lower levels of corruption, better governance, and freer press; (d) Poland’s smaller agricultural sector and greater emphasis on manufacturing; and (e) Poland’s lower inflation and higher level of financial development. Furthermore, Poland built market-friendly institutions to EU specifications and joined NATO. Against all this, Ukraine had more economic equality and lower unemployment as well as, from the early 1990s, a lower initial level of income per person, but was hampered by political divisions, path-dependent corruption and poor governance. During the global Covid-19 pandemic, Ukraine apparently suffered fewer deaths than Poland, despite fewer vaccinations.
    Keywords: Economic growth, Poland, Ukraine, Governance, Transition, Education, Economic reforms, Exports, European Union, Inflation, Labour markets
    JEL: O11 O16 O19
    Date: 2022–12
  47. By: Sokolov Ilya (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration)
    Abstract: Today, a significant share of tax revenue in most countries comes from VAT. So, for example, according to data for 2017, for OECD countries the average share of VAT tax revenues is about 20-25%. This indicator is second only to insurance premiums and personal income tax (PIT). At the same time, there is a very heated discussion about how the VAT affects public welfare, especially in the context of switching from other forms of taxation.
    Keywords: value added tax, factor analysis
    Date: 2021–01
  48. By: Fabrizio Ferriani (Bank of Italy); Andrea Gazzani (Bank of Italy)
    Abstract: We analyse the impact of the shock to energy prices induced by the war in Ukraine on the financial performance of the major European firms listed in the Eurostoxx 600 index. We find that equity returns (CDS spreads) decreased (increased) more substantially for firms characterized by high energy intensity and carbon emission intensity. We then present a method, based on a VAR model, to produce forecasts of firms’ CDS spreads conditional on a 3-month stress period of high electricity prices and we document a non-negligible increase in the number of firms with a CDS-implied non-investment rating.
    Keywords: war in Ukraine, energy impacts, financial performance, CDS spread
    JEL: G12 G14 G32 G33
    Date: 2022–11
    Abstract: Recently, the intensification of U.S.-China strategic competition, spread of COVID-19 infections, and the Russia-Ukraine war are disrupting the global supply chain and increasing instability in the global economy. The resulting instability in the supply of semiconductors, medicines, food, and energy is leading to an economic downturn, and the U.S., China, Japan, and EU are actively pursuing strategies to strengthen economic security. The key to recent economic security is the U.S.-China strategic competition. Because the United States is re-tightening economic-security links that were loosened in the post-Cold War era to counter China's economic rise. And the concept of recent economic security largely includes the elements of economic statecraft, economic resilience, and building mutual trust.
    Keywords: Geopolitical Risk; U.S.-China Strategic Competition; Economic Security
    Date: 2022–09–01
  50. By: Zubarev Andrey (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Rybak Konstanin (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration)
    Abstract: The main tool used in this work is the structural vector autoregression model with an exogenous variable. With the help of short-term constraints, we identify 3 shocks: output, investment and risk premium.
    Keywords: applied econometrics, macroeconomics, var-avtoregression
    Date: 2021–01
  51. By: Morozov Anton (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration)
    Abstract: In response to the recent garbage crises, the Russian government has implemented a reform to normalize the municipal waste (MSW) industry. Further steps of the state in this direction should be associated with the formation of a long-term strategy based on the principles of sustainable development.
    Keywords: MSW market research, competition research
    Date: 2021–01
  52. By: Davydov, Denis; Sihvonen, Jukka; Solanko, Laura
    Abstract: This paper uses textual analysis to examine how European corporations assess sanctions in their annual reports. Using observations from a panel of almost 11,500 corporate annual reports from 2014-2017, we document significant cross-country variation in how firms perceive Russia-related sanctions. Even after controlling for firm-level characteristics, cross-country differences remain for sentiments about sanctions and contexts in which sanctions are mentioned. We also examine the role of macroeconomic linkages in explaining these differences. We show that the Russia's inward and outward FDI stocks and high levels of imports and exports with Russia only partially explain the cross-country variation, leaving a nontrivial share of variation unexplained.
    Keywords: sanctions,textual analysis,European firms,annual reports
    JEL: D22 F51
    Date: 2021
  53. By: Eloi Bigas (Siris Academic); Nicandro Bovenzi (Siris Academic); Enric Fuster (Siris Academic); Francesco A. Massucci (Siris Academic); Hugo Hollanders (Maastricht University); Monika Matusiak (European Commission - JRC); Ramojus Reimeris (European Commission - JRC)
    Abstract: Armenia, Azerbaijan, , Georgia,the Republic of Moldova and Ukraine have committed to develop place-based Smart Specialisation Strategies for research and innovation with the objective of enhancing their competitiveness and drive structural change of the economies. The purpose of this study is to contribute to evidence-informed research and innovation policy, in particular the development of Smart Specialisation Strategies. The study presents a solid basis for these processes in the Eastern Partnership region by offering an extensive quantitative analysis of national-level potential in the economy, innovation, science and technology. A limited number of economic and innovation (E&I) specialisation domains matched with relevant scientific and technological (S&T) specialisation domains are identified for each Eastern Partnership country. The study proposes a new method to identify concordances between the EI and ST specialisation domains so that they can be used to inform ongoing Smart Specialisation processes in the Eastern Partnership countries with available international data. Interested countries need to compliment this analysis with the relevant national data sources and other useful information resulting from the qualitative expert inputs and stakeholder engagement. The report also indicates the evidence-informed areas for knowledge-based economic cooperation to support bilateral and region-wide initiatives.
    Keywords: Smart Specialisation, innovation policy, quantitative analysis, mapping, EU Eastern Partnership
    Date: 2022–11
  54. By: Mikhaylova Anna (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Timushev Evgeny (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration)
    Abstract: Fiscal sustainability presupposes, on the one hand, balanced development (sustainability in the long term), and on the other, resilience, that is, short-term resilience to external shocks. Debt sustainability provides the conditions for countercyclical fiscal policy.
    Keywords: fiscal sustainability, countercyclical fiscal policy
    Date: 2021–01
  55. By: Mariia Lapina (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Daria Oleinik (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: This study focuses on the relationship between language and identity in the Republic of Karelia in recent years. There are several indigenous peoples living in Karelia whose languages are in the process of a language shift. According to the 2010 Russian census, Karelians and Veps are minority populations of Karelia, while the Karelian and Vepsian languages are native to even smaller populations. This language situation has developed because of the Soviet policy of assimilation and Russification, and because of the linguistic diversity of the region. Residents of Karelia express different opinions about the languages of Karelia, note the invisibility of the Karelian and Vepsian languages, and worry about their status. In the context of language shift, the main concern for people is the preservation of a culture that is unconditionally associated with languages and ethnicities.
    Keywords: identity, ethnicity, language shift, language
    JEL: Z
    Date: 2022
  56. By: International Monetary Fund
    Abstract: North Macedonia's economy has been hit by two large external shocks. While recovering from the pandemic, the outlook deteriorated again following Russia's invasion of Ukraine and sharply rising energy and food prices. Given high dependence on energy imports, the external financing need has increased, while at the same time, global financial conditions have tightened, increasing the cost of market financing.
    Date: 2022–11–29
  57. By: Sedalishev Vladimir (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration)
    Abstract: Unexpectedly for many, 2020 brought many events that multiplied the already existing global external economic turbulence, which arose, first of all, due to the global trade war unleashed by US President Donald Trump in 2017. The main driver of most significant economic events in the first half of 2020 was the COVID-19 virus pandemic, which, due to the quarantine introduced in many countries of the world, led to a noticeable decline in the output of almost all industries.
    Keywords: unpredictability, macroeconomic forecasting
    Date: 2021–01
  58. By: Campana, Juan Manuel; Emboava Vaz, João; Hein, Eckhard; Jungmann, Benjamin
    Abstract: We contribute to the recent debate in post-Keynesian economics (PKE), comparative political economy (CPE) and international political economy (IPE) on growth regimes. The paper presents an analysis of changes in demand-led growth regimes in the BRICs countries, Brazil, Russia, India, and China, after the Global Financial Crisis and the Great Recession 2007-09. It discusses and applies two approaches, a first one based on national income and financial accounting decomposition and a second one, based on the Sraffian Supermultiplier (SSM) growth model, distinguishing the dynamics of autonomous expenditure growth from those of the induced components of aggregate demand. It is argued that the SSM approach provides the bridge between the traditional approach based on national income and financial accounting decomposition and the analysis of growth drivers, both in PKE as well as in CPE and IPE. This is illustrated by pointing out some changes in the underlying political economy and economic policy growth drivers in each of the countries.
    Keywords: Demand and growth regimes,growth decomposition,autonomous demand-led growth
    JEL: E02 E11 E12 P16 P51
    Date: 2022
  59. By: Vedev Alexey (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration)
    Abstract: The object of the research was the Russian economy and the types of activities of individual regions. The main purpose of the study was the theoretical and methodological substantiation of the mechanisms of influence of the credit market, the domestic stock market, institutional investors on the long-term economic development of the country.
    Keywords: debt and equity financing, comparative analysis
    Date: 2021–01
  60. By: Christine Rifflart (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)
    Abstract: Alors que l'Espagne accusait le plus fort retard des pays occidentaux dans le processus de rattrapage post-Covid, la reprise engagée au second semestre 2021 n'a pas résisté à la montée des tensions inflationnistes amplifiées par la guerre en Ukraine. Malgré la mise en place de mesures d'urgence de lutte contre l'inflation et ses conséquences, la hausse des prix de l'énergie et la montée des incertitudes géopolitiques ont brisé la croissance.
    Date: 2022–10
  61. By: Ballbach, Eric J.
    Abstract: Während die Weltöffentlichkeit auf Russlands Krieg gegen die Ukraine und den sich verschärfenden Konflikt zwischen den USA und China blickt, hat sich die Sicherheitslage auf der koreanischen Halbinsel weiter verschlechtert. Nordkorea treibt den Ausbau seiner militärischen Fähigkeiten kontinuierlich voran und hat jüngst seine Nukleardoktrin signifikant modifiziert. Der sich rasch verändernde geopolitische Kontext macht zugleich eine Lösung des Atomkonflikts noch unwahrscheinlicher. Pjöngjang hat den Status quo auf der koreanischen Halbinsel unilateral verändert. Diese neue Realität anzuerkennen ist zwar politisch nicht unumstritten. Doch sind Fortschritte in der Nordkorea-Frage kaum vorstellbar, solange die internationale Gemeinschaft weiter von unbegründeten Erwartungen ausgeht und an dem illusorischen Ziel festhält, das Land zum Verzicht auf seine Atomwaffen zu überreden oder zu zwingen.
    Keywords: Nordkorea,Atomwaffen,Nukleardoktrin,Raketenprogramm,Staatschef Kim Jong Un,Südkorea,koreanische Halbinel,Japan,erweiterte Abschreckung,regionale Verteidigungskooperation
    Date: 2022
  62. By: Oliver Fritz; Anna Burton (WIFO)
    Abstract: Erstmals seit Ausbruch der COVID-19-Pandemie konnten touristische Aktivitäten in der Sommersaison 2022 wieder uneingeschränkt stattfinden, sodass die Nachfrage im Vergleich zum Vorjahr deutlich anzog (Ankünfte +27, 3%, Nächtigungen +17, 2%). Mit 24 Mio. Ankünften und rund 78 Mio. Übernachtungen wurde schon fast wieder das Vorkrisenniveau des Sommers 2019 erreicht (Ankünfte –6, 2%, Nächtigungen –1, 4%). Die Aussichten für den Winter 2022/23 sind mit Teuerungswelle und Energieunsicherheiten wesentlich volatiler, jedoch vorsichtig optimistisch – eine gute Buchungslage zu Winterbeginn dürfte den Nächtigungsrückstand zur Saison 2018/19 auf schätzungsweise 5% reduzieren.
    Keywords: Tourismus, COVID-19-Krise, Ukraine-Krieg, Teuerung
    Date: 2022–12–19
  63. By: Anastasia, Giacomo (Fondazione Rodolfo DeBenedetti); Boeri, Tito (Bocconi University); Kudlyak, Marianna (Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco); Zholud, Oleksandr (National Bank of Ukraine)
    Abstract: The full-scale invasion of Ukraine and the ongoing war have caused and continue causing damages of devastating proportions. We analyse the impact on the Ukrainian labor market and propose a framework for its rebuilding. The Ukrainian labour market needs not only to be rebuilt – it needs to be rebuilt better. The unprecedented challenges imposed by the reconstruction can be met by a labour market promoting labor market participation and easing the reallocation of workers across jobs. Reconstruction will require a mix of emergency measures dealing with the legacies of the war and structural reforms addressing pre-existing inefficiencies of the Ukrainian labour market. We illustrate the challenges in light of the experience of other European countries having gone through military conflicts in a recent past and propose strategies for action. The detailed proposals are consistent with a four-pronged strategy for reconstruction aimed at: investing in human capital for the future by offering remedial education to the pupils having lost years of education, and offering retraining to job losers still far from retirement; making a better use of existing human capital, increasing labour force participation of women and tackling youth unemployment among internally displaced workers; protecting the most vulnerable groups (job losers, veterans, fragile and older workers) in a sustainable fashion; promoting a return of ideas if not of people, involving in the reconstruction the human capital migrated abroad that will not return back home. These policies should be linked to the EU accession process: they will require technical assistance from European countries having longstanding experience with labour market policies at times of reallocation, and part of them could possibly be financed by instruments connected with EU accession.
    Keywords: Ukraine, labour markets, reconstruction, armed conflict, war
    JEL: E2 J24 N4 H5 L5
    Date: 2022–12
  64. By: Mäkinen, Mikko
    Abstract: Can a major financial crisis trigger changes in a bank's risk-taking behavior? Using the 2008 Global Financial Crisis as a quasi-natural experiment and a difference-in-differences approach, I examine whether the worst crisis-hit Russian banks - the banks that have strong incentives to behavior-altering changes - can decrease their post-crisis exposure to risk. A shift in risk-taking behavior by these banks indicates the learning hypothesis. The findings are mixed. The evidence concerning credit risk is inconsistent with the learning hypothesis. On the other hand, the evidence concerning solvency risk is consistent with the learning hypothesis and corroborates evidence from the Nordic countries (Berglund and Mäkinen, 2019). As such, bank learning from a financial crisis may not depend on the institutional context and the level of development of national financial market. Several robustness checks with alternative regression specifications are provided.
    Keywords: financial crisis,bank learning,bank risk,Russian banks
    JEL: G01 G21 G32
    Date: 2021
  65. By: Hubert Bonin (BSE - Bordeaux Sciences Economiques - UB - Université de Bordeaux - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: Whilst being enrooted in public "common goods", French utilities, either State-controlled or private, became more and more committed to strategies of developing abroad their portfolio of engineering and managing skills. They followed the past of economic imperialism along geopolitics in emerging countries (Russia, Ottoman Empire, Latin America), then also throughout the colonial empire; such offensives were embodied by the adventure of the Suez Canal. From the 1980s, the reconstruction of the worldwide connections opened doors to geoeconomics, that is the will to resist competition and to conquer market shares abroad thanks to the valuation of capital of competence and trust. Every public, privatised or already quoted companies took part to the run for concessions and the deliveries of engineering and managing services (waste, water, postal, railway, bus, energy utilities). This contributed to the competitiveness of French economy and economic patriotism.
    Keywords: Internationalised public services, Concessions abroad, Suez Canal, Globalised business models, Colonial equipment
    Date: 2022–12–09
  66. By: Hilpert, Hanns Günther
    Abstract: Europe's trade policy is heading for a sea change. But it is not Putin's war of aggression against Ukraine that is the main reason for this development. Rather, there are long-term influencing factors at work here: the WTO-centred multilateral trade order is visibly eroding. Protectionism is on the rise around the globe. World trade is growing only marginally or is even stagnating. Globalization is undergoing a transformation whose outcome is uncertain. And international trade is increasingly being instrumentalized for political purposes. In February 2021, the European Commission responded to these structural upheavals by announcing an "open, sustainable and assertive trade policy". However, there has so far been uneven progress towards implementing the objectives included in the new trade policy strategy. While the EU's intention to strengthen both Europe's assertiveness and the sustainability of trade is being realized through numerous new instruments and measures, its promise of openness and liberalization remains unfulfilled for the time being. In particular, the Indo-Pacific region beyond China would offer the German and European economies significant opportunities to tap new sources of raw materials and access reliable supplier networks and growing sales markets.
    Keywords: EU trade policy,Putin,aggression against Ukraine,protectionism,WTO,China,Taiwan crisis,Australia,New Zealand,India,Indo-Pacific
    Date: 2022
  67. By: Maksym Obrizan
    Abstract: This paper identifies the causal effects of full-scale kremlin aggression on socio-economic outcomes in Ukraine three months into the full-scale war. First, forced migration after February 24th, 2022 is associated with an elevated risk of becoming unemployed by 7.5% points. Second, difference-in-difference regressions show that in regions with fighting on the ground females without a higher education face a 9.6-9.9% points higher risk of not having enough money for food. Finally, in the regions subject to ground attack females with and without a higher education, as well as males without a higher education are more likely to become unemployed by 6.1-6.9%, 4.2-4.7% and 6.5-6.6% points correspondingly. This persistent gender gap in poverty and unemployment, when even higher education is not protective for females, calls for policy action. While more accurate results may obtain with more comprehensive surveys, this paper provides a remarkably robust initial estimate of the war's effects on poverty, unemployment and internal migration.
    Date: 2022–10
  68. By: Gorbunov, Vladimir; Lvov, Alexander
    Abstract: Independent self-organizing small and medium-sized entrepreneurship (SMB) is usually considered to be the most important sector of the modern economy, evolving in according to market conditions and stimulating the economy to progress. But in recent years, works have appeared that criticize the defining of this economy sector as the "locomotive" of the entire market economy. Arguments for different points of view are often based on verbal judgment and comparisons between countries, despite significant differences in the definition of small (SB) and medium (MB) businesses across countries. In this paper, for comparative analysis of industrial segments of the sectors of SB, MB, and large enterprises (LE), we suggest the method for assessing the "effective funds" (EF) of production systems and constructing their production functions (PF). The concept EF are understood as a part of the book-value production funds that actually participate in the output. This indicator is not directly measurable, but it can be estimated based on data of production investment, the number of employees and the total output of enterprises of the studied system when constructing "capital" PF. The initial version of the method was proposed by us in 2012, and here a next modification is given, taking into account the specifics of the SMB reflection by Rosstat. The method is demonstrated on statistical data for the industrial segments of the SB, MB and LE sectors of the Russian economy.
    Keywords: small business, medium enterprises, industrial segment, investments, efficient funds, perpetual inventory method, production functions, parameter estimation
    JEL: C13 D24 E22 L16 L26 M38
    Date: 2021–09
  69. By: Rossouw, Stephanié; Greyling, Talita
    Abstract: We know that when collective emotions are prolonged, it leads not only to action (which could be negative) but also to the formation of identity, culture, or an emotional climate. Therefore, policymakers must understand how collective emotions react to macro-level shocks to mitigate potentially violent and destructive outcomes. Given the above, our paper's main aim is to determine the effect of macro-level shocks on collective emotions and the various stages they follow. To this end, we analyse the temporal evolution of different emotions from pre to post two different types of macro-level shocks; lockdown, a government-implemented regulation brought on by COVID-19 and the invasion of Ukraine. A secondary aim is to use narrative analysis to understand the public perceptions and concerns that lead to the observed emotional changes. To achieve these aims, we use a unique time series dataset derived from extracting tweets in real-time, filtering on specific keywords related to lockdowns (COVID-19) and the Ukrainian war for ten countries. Applying Natural Language Processing, we obtain these tweets underlying emotion scores and derive daily time series data per emotion. We compare the different emotional time series data to a counterfactual to derive changes from the norm. Additionally, we use topic modelling to explain the emotional changes. We find that the same collective emotions are evoked following similar patterns over time regardless of whether it is a health or a war shock. Specifically, we find fear is the predominant emotion before the shocks, and anger leads the emotions after the shocks, followed by sadness and fear.
    Keywords: COVID-19, Big Data, Twitter, collective emotions, Ukraine, macro-level shock
    JEL: C55 I10 I31 H12 N40
    Date: 2022
  70. By: Orsetta Causa; Emilia Soldani; Nhung Luu; Chiara Soriolo
    Abstract: Inflation has quickly and significantly increased in most OECD countries since the end of 2021 and further accelerated after Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine, mostly driven by surging energy and food prices. Certain categories of households are particularly vulnerable, as large parts of their consumption expenditures are devoted to energy and food. Drawing on national micro-based household budget surveys and on CPI data, this paper provides a quantification of the impact of rising prices on households’ welfare. Declines in household purchasing power between August 2021 and August 2022 are estimated to range from 3% in Japan to 18% in the Czech Republic. This decline is driven by energy prices in most countries, especially Denmark, Italy, and the United Kingdom, while energy prices play a lesser role in countries where inflation is more broad-based like the Czech Republic and the United States. In all considered countries, inflation weighs relatively more on low than high-income households. Rural households are hit particularly hard, most often more than low-incomes ones, and this is driven by energy price inflation. To cushion vulnerable households from rising inflation, especially from energy prices, these findings call for a careful targeting of income and price support measures, notwithstanding their administrative and logistical complexity, taking into account their effects on economic activity, inflation, and, last but not least, environmental goals.
    Keywords: distribution, energy, inequality, inflation, policy analysis, purchasing power
    JEL: H12 H23 I3 Q41 Q48
    Date: 2022–12–22
  71. By: Spannagel, Dorothee; Zucco, Aline
    Abstract: In Deutschland ist der Anteil der Armen in der letzten Dekade deutlich angestiegen. Vor diesem Hintergrund befasst sich der diesjährige Verteilungsbericht mit dem Thema Einkommensarmut und untersucht, welche Auswirkungen sie auf die gesellschaftliche Teilhabe der Betroffenen hat. Auf Basis des SOEP sowie der HBS-Lebenslagenbefragung zeigt sich, dass Armut in Deutschland die gesellschaftliche Teilhabe deutlich einschränkt. Arme müssen etwa auf Güter des alltäglichen Lebens verzichten, sie leben auf kleinerem Wohnraum oder haben einen schlechteren Gesundheitszustand. Diese verminderte gesellschaftliche Teilhabe führt dazu, dass Arme mit ihrem eigenen Leben unzufriedener sind. Sie haben auch weniger Vertrauen in das Handeln politischer Akteure. Hier geraten die Grundfesten unseres demokratischen Miteinanders ins Wanken - eine Entwicklung, die sich aktuell durch die hohe Inflation in Folge des Ukraine-Kriegs deutlich verschärft hat. Um die Situation der armen Haushalte zu verbessern, aber auch um das Vertrauen in unser demokratisches System zu stärken, bedarf es gezielter politischer Maßnahmen. Dazu gehören insbesondere die Förderung sozialversicherungspflichtiger Beschäftigung und die Anhebung der Regelsätze in der Grundsicherung. Außerdem müssen gesellschaftliche Chancenungleichheiten durch vorausschauend geplanten und sozial gestalteten öffentlichen Wohnungsbau sowie den Abbau von Bildungsungleichheiten verringert werden.
    Keywords: Deutschland/Europa/International,Wirtschaft,Vermögensverteilung
    Date: 2022
  72. By: Schilirò, Daniele
    Abstract: Botswana is an upper-middle-income country with a significant diamond wealth, being the first world producer of diamonds in terms of value and the second largest, after Russia, in terms of volume. Although Botswana's economy has performed quite well in recent years, apart from the negative year of the COVID-19 crisis, the country still suffers from high inequalities, high levels of poverty, insufficient infrastructure, and a poorly diversified economy too focused on diamonds. This paper examines the economy of Botswana, its features, economic structure, and evolution, stressing the need for diversification. The paper first suggests the need for the government to actively foster private sector development of the economy and the provision of a business-friendly regulatory environment, as well as an innovation policy that encourages the adoption of digital technologies and the establishment of Industry 4.0, finally, last but not least, skill enhancement. Therefore, innovation, institutions, and education are the key factors for diversification and sustainable development.
    Keywords: diversification; Botswana; innovation; knowledge economy; institutions
    JEL: J24 L50 O14 O25 O30 O55
    Date: 2022–12
  73. By: Borisova, Ekaterina; Ivanov, Denis S.
    Abstract: In this study, we use random assignment of vignettes that feature optimistic and pessimistic scenarios with respect to vaccine safety and efficacy on a sample of roughly 1,600 Russians in order to gauge public support for anti-pandemic measures under various scenarios. Negative information on vaccine safety and efficacy reduces support for the anti-pandemic measures among individuals who fear Covid-19 and were initially supportive of government restrictions. These individuals tend to be old, and therefore vulnerable to Covid-19, and politically active. This loss of support is strongest for economically costly measures such as banning of large gatherings and the shuttering of non-essential businesses. Mask-wearing, which involves only minor costs, finds broad acceptance. We interpret the reactions in light of adaptation, fatigue over Covid-19 restrictions, and fatalism. The political consequences of non-pharmaceutical measures to deal with a pandemic include loss of public support over time, erosion of trust in government, and political backlash.
    Keywords: Covid-19,vaccine,non-pharmaceutical measures,anti-pandemic restrictions,lockdown,anxiety
    JEL: I12 I18 C93
    Date: 2021
  74. By: Tulun, Teoman Ertuğrul (Center For Eurasian Studies (AVİM))
    Abstract: On March 25, 2021, all major western international media outlets reported, with comprehensive analysis, that Greece is celebrating its 200th anniversary since the beginning of the struggle for independence from the Ottoman Empire in 1821. Certain of these media outlets referred to the Ottoman Empire as "the former Turkish Ottoman Empire." It is reported in this regard that "Prince Charles, heir to the British throne whose father Prince Philip was born in Corfu as part of the Greek royal family," Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin and the French Defense Minister Florence Parly attended the parade in Athens.Concerning the 1821 Celebrations, the basic question is: Was the uprising against the Ottoman Empire in 1821 just the beginning of the war for independence for the Greeks, or was it the beginning of brutal massacres committed by gangs who later were presented to be fighting for the independence of Greece? One of the first targets of the uprising was the city of Tripolitsa which is situated in the middle of Peloponnese and administrative center for Ottoman rule in the Peloponnese. In the Tripolitsa massacre by Greek gangs, upwards of ten thousand Turks were brutally killed. Especially diaspora sources praise the Tripolitsa massacre by claiming that Turks deserved it. Turkey is a victim of misinformation and dis information published by the US, German, French and British media. These media outlets have contributed to the creation of Fake News against Turkey. Last example of this published in the BBC/Turkish news regarding the 1821 celebrations.
    Date: 2021–03–30
  75. By: Banda, Chimwemwe; De Weerdt, Joachim; Duchoslav, Jan; Jolex, Aubrey
    Abstract: The market price of fertilizer in Malawi has, in nominal terms, more than tripled compared to two years ago. The price hikes were both unexpected and beyond the control of the government, linked to global events, such as the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. This changed global reality reinforces the need to rethink the way in which Malawi approaches its agricultural input subsidies. A number of options for reforming the AIP have been outlined in recent policy work, but all have medium to long term implementation horizons. We will not repeat these here and instead refer the interested reader to Chadza and Duchoslav (2022), De Weerdt and Duchoslav (2022), and Nyondo et al. (2022). This policy note discusses a strategy that can be implemented readily and immediately, potentially still this year, to ensure that the budget allocated to fertilizer subsidies has the highest possible effect on food security in the country. It also discusses how the strategy, once adopted, can be used to phase out the AIP, while ensuring allocative efficiency within the program. This can be achieved by, each year, fixing the budget at a lower point and conducting the same optimization exercise.
    Keywords: MALAWI; SOUTHERN AFRICA; AFRICA SOUTH OF SAHARA; AFRICA, commodity markets, Coronavirus, coronavirus disease, Coronavirinae, COVID-19, farm inputs, farmers, fertilizers, food security, market prices, supply balance, Affordable Input Programme (AIP), farmer contributions
    Date: 2022
  76. By: Bongartz, Bärbel
    Abstract: Ökonomische Unsicherheiten führen auch in der Mitte der Gesellschaft zu wachsendem Prekarisierungsdruck. Prekarisierungsprozesse durchziehen eine breite gesellschaftliche Gruppe (Castel, 2009, S. 30). Es ist nicht mehr die vielzitierte Unterschicht, die sogenannten Bildungsfernen oder Menschen in segregierten Stadtteilen, die wirtschaftliche Sorgen als bedrohlich empfinden. Das wallende Inflationsgeschehen, der Beginn eines asymmetrisch geführten Wirtschaftskriegs zwischen Russland und der EU und steigende Zinsen bringen auch die gesellschaftliche Mitte in ökonomische Nöte, zumindest in wirtschaftliche Ängste. Der Beitrag beschreibt Handlungsmuster, die Mittelschichtsangehörige als Reaktion auf makrosoziale Veränderungen anwenden. Dabei richtet sich der Fokus auf abweichende Verhaltensweisen, die gemeinhin nicht mit der Mittelschicht in Verbindung gebracht werden.
    Keywords: Kriminalität,Mittelschicht,Prekarisierung,Radikalisierung
    Date: 2022

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NEP’s infrastructure is sponsored by the School of Economics and Finance of Massey University in New Zealand.