|
on Confederation of Independent States |
| By: | Dzhamilya Nigmatulina |
| Abstract: | Using a unique natural experiment of staggered firm-level sanctions against Russia in 2014-2020 and the data on over 900,000 Russian firms, I estimate the effect of sanctions on targeted firms and on the aggregate economy. Surprisingly, sanctioned firms on average gained 38% more capital inputs after sanctions relative to the industry trends. The effect is in part driven by sanctioned state-owned firms, getting 60% more capital relative to non-sanctioned firms. Using additional data on subsidies and government contracts, I find that this result is explained by the government protection of targeted firms, that more than compensated for a negative sanctions shock. However, the sanctioned firms were already too large and had too much capital prior to sanctions. I use a heterogeneous firm framework to show that the distortions between sanctioned and non-sanctioned firms, which existed before the sanctions, got exacerbated after the joint effect of sanctions and government protection. I combine the causal estimates with the quantitative frame-work and estimate that on the aggregate, the Russian TFP dropped at least by 0.33% reaching 3% in relevant sectors. |
| Keywords: | misallocation, macro development, state-ownership, political connections, SOEs, sanctions, Russia |
| Date: | 2022–11–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp1886&r=cis |
| By: | Pavlov, Konstantin; Timiryanova, Venera; Yusupov, Kasim; Krasnoselskaya, Dina |
| Abstract: | The study focuses on the spatial autocorrelation of the number of infections and deaths from COVID-19 per capita across Russian regions from the beginning of the epidemic to November 10, 2022. The analysis showed a wave-like change in the regional spatial dependence in terms of the number of infections. The significance of spatial links decreases during the period of severe restrictions' introduction. Spatial autocorrelation of covid mortality is not significant. Regional variance on mortality in recent months has been increasing in contrast to the variance of regions on infection rates. The calculation made it possible to substantiate regional fragmentation in terms of mortality which determines the relevance of a deeper study of the healthcare systems' quality in the regions. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19, spatial analysis, Global Moran's Index |
| JEL: | I15 R11 |
| Date: | 2022–11–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:114637&r=cis |
| By: | Alexeey Michael (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Arlashkin Igor (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Barbashova Natalia (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Deryugin Alexander (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Komarnitskaya Anna (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Sokolov Ilya (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | The paper presents the results of an inventory of the regulations for the distribution of matching grants to the regions of Russia, as well as the evaluation of the direct stimulating effect of a specific grant using econometric analysis of panel data. The study allows to formulate specific recommendations for eliminating the identified negative incentives of matching grants and improving the existing methods of grants’ distribution to subnational governments. |
| Keywords: | SUPREME AUDIT INSTITUTIONS; AUDIT; AUDIT SELECTION; JUDGEMENT; RISK ANALYSIS; EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE |
| Date: | 2021–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:s21118&r=cis |
| By: | Ayaz Zeynalov; Kristina Tiron |
| Abstract: | Oil price fluctuations severely impact the economies of both oil-exporting and importing countries. High oil prices can benefit oil exporters by increasing foreign currency inflow; however, an economy can suffer from a weakening of the manufacturing sectors and experience a significant downtrend in the country's price competitiveness as the domestic currency appreciates. We investigate the oil price fluctuations from Q1, 2004 to Q3, 2021 and their impact on the Russian macroeconomic indicators, particularly industrial production, exchange rate, inflation and interest rates. We assess whether and how much the Russian macroeconomic variables have been responsive to the oil price fluctuations in recent years. The outcomes from VAR model confirm that the monetary channel is more responsive to oil price shocks than the fiscal one. Regarding fiscal channel of the oil price impact, industrial production is strongly pro-cyclical to oil price shocks. As for the monetary channel, higher oil price volatility is pressuring the Russian ruble, inflation and interest rates are substantially counter-cyclical to oil price shocks. |
| Date: | 2022–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2211.04954&r=cis |
| By: | Alexeey Michael (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Belev Sergey (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Vekerle Konstantin (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Zolotareva Anna (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Leonov Elisey (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Sokolov Ilya (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Matveev Evgeniy (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | This article presents the main results of research on the topic of The research of the economic features of the corporate profit tax in the Russian Federation in the 2010s. The paper provides an overview of the international practice of the evolution of corporate profit taxation. Corporate profit tax is not optimal, since it distorts the decisions made by the company: about the source of funding (if interests on loans can be deducted from corporate profit tax base), about dividend payments (if the classical system with double taxation of distributed profits is applied), investment decisions, etc. In the framework of this work, the economic effects of distortions caused by the corporate profit tax in the Russian Federation and methods of their minimization will be analyzed, and the estimation of the scale of this distortions will be provided. |
| Keywords: | налог на прибыль, эвлюция налогообложения, временной анализ |
| Date: | 2021–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:s21119&r=cis |
| By: | Bernardt, Florian (GWS); Schneemann, Christian (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Ulrich, Philip (GWS); Kalinowski, Michael (BIBB); Weber, Enzo (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany ; Univ. Regensburg); Zenk, Johanna (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Zika, Gerd (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany) |
| Abstract: | "This research report describes the medium- and long-term impacts of the war in Ukraine and the energy crisis for 34 labour market regions in Germany. To this end, the scenarios from the corresponding analysis for all Germany have been regionalised. A comparison of the regionalised scenarios illustrates the possible impacts of the war in Ukraine and the energy crisis on regional labour markets in Germany. A medium-term scenario by 2026 and a longer-term scenario by 2030 are calculated. In addition, the impacts of an aggravated energy crisis on the number of employed persons in the regions are considered. In this scenario a doubling of the previously assumed price increase is expected. The war of aggression on Ukraine has caused great refugee movements, already now resulting in a higher population growth in all German labour market regions. In relative terms, the total population increases strongest in the regions Rostock, Hannover and Kassel by 2026 and 2030. The higher population size in turn leads to an increase in the labour force in all labour market regions. In the long-term, this growing labour force potential results in a higher number of employed persons than in the alternative scenario “Peace in Europe”. In the medium-term however, the number of employed persons is lower in 2026 in all labour market regions in comparison to the alternative scenario due to the overall weaker economic situation. The strongest relative decline is being expected for the regions Münster/Osnabrück, Bremen and Ravensburg. In the long-term, the number of employed persons is higher in most labour market regions in comparison to the alternative scenario “Peace in Europe”. However, the regions Ravensburg, Münster/Osnabrück and Neubrandenburg continue to be affected negatively and with the strongest relative decline. Job reductions in all regions are largely attributed to accommodation and food service activities, manufacturing of machinery and equipment and land transport. Most regions also face job reductions in retail trade and the construction sector. The reductions in the respective industries and service sectors are due to higher energy prices, the resulting increase in the general price level and lower consumer spending. Depending on the region and regional economic structures, the reductions vary in size. On the other hand, additional jobs are being created in the educational sector, in public administration, defence and compulsory social security and the health sector. Job creation in these sectors is due to population growth, its demographics and additional government spending. If the energy crisis aggravates and the previously assumed energy prices were to double once again, the impacts on the labour market regions would be much more negative. In particular, regions with a high proportion of energy-intensive industries would carry an additional burden. Negative impacts are to be expected especially for the north-western regions. Employment numbers would then remain lower than in the alternative scenario “Peace in Europe” even in the long term." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en)) |
| Keywords: | IAB-Open-Access-Publikation |
| Date: | 2022–11–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iab:iabfob:202221&r=cis |
| By: | Khrystyna Huk; Ayaz Zeynalov |
| Abstract: | This research is devoted to assessing regional economic disparities in Ukraine, where regional economic inequality is a crucial issue the country faces in its medium and long-term development, recently, even in the short term. We analyze the determinants of regional economic growth, mainly industrial and agricultural productions, population, human capital, fertility, migration, and regional government expenditures. Using panel data estimations from 2004 to 2020 for 27 regions of Ukraine, our results show that the gaps between regions in Ukraine have widened last two decades. The disparities can be explained by natural resource distribution, agricultural and industrial productions, government spending, and migration. We show that regional government spending is highly concentrated in Kyiv, and the potential of the other regions, especially the Western ones, has not been used sufficiently. Moreover, despite its historical and economic opportunity, the East region did not perform significant development during the last two decades. The inefficient and inconsistent regional policies played a crucial role in these disparities. |
| Date: | 2022–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2211.05666&r=cis |
| By: | Milogolov Nikolai (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Gromov Vladimir (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Patel' Svetlana (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Kostryikina Natalia (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Koryitin Andrey (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Melkova Elena (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | The work is devoted to the prospects of transformation of bilateral tax treaties in digital conditions. To address this question, the authors studied the prerequisites for the transformation of tax systems in an environment of increasing use of digital technologies, and identified key tax challenges. |
| Keywords: | transformation of tax treaties, bilateral tax treaties |
| Date: | 2021–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:s21112&r=cis |
| By: | Michel Aglietta; Sabrina Khanniche |
| Abstract: | This policy brief addresses the challenges that confronted the main central banks in the face of uncertainties arising from multiple disruptions: the waves of the Covid-19 pandemic since early 2020 to the energy crisis of 2022, to the disastrous events generated by climate change, the war in Ukraine and the real-estate crisis in China. Inflation has surged due to supply-side problems and fiscal policies fostered by socio-political rivalries both within and between countries. In this environment, the task of central banks to fight high and persistent inflation, while limiting the risk of severe or prolonged recession, is extremely difficult, and particularly so when their lack of cooperation can lead them to overbid one another in raising their policy rate. To understand better how central banks are responding to inflation surges and financial vulnerabilities, we start from reviews of monetary policy frameworks by the Fed and ECB to highlight why they have been induced to abandon their forward guidance in favor of day-to-day responses to the flow of new events. Since early 2022, the main challenge forcing central banks from easing to restrictive monetary policy has been the surge in inflation triggered by the rise in energy and food prices related to the war in Ukraine in a context of deep uncertainty. However, specific national issues remain key to central bank policies. |
| Keywords: | Surging inflation;Financial vulnerabilities;Yield curve inversion |
| JEL: | E58 E62 F31 |
| Date: | 2022–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cii:cepipb:2022-39&r=cis |
| By: | Haß, Marlen; Deblitz, Claus; Freund, Florian; Kreins, Peter; Laquai, Verena; Offermann, Frank; Pelikan, Janine; Sturm, Viktoriya; Wegmann, Johannes; de Witte, Thomas; Wüstemann, Friedrich; Zinnbauer, Maximilian |
| Abstract: | This report presents selected results of the Thünen-Baseline 2022-2032 as well as the assumptions underlying the projections. The Thünen-Baseline describes the expected developments of agricultural markets under given macro-economic conditions assuming no change in the current policy framework. Projections are based on the data and information available in spring 2022. The effects of the Russia-Ukraine war are not taken into account. The report includes projection results on agricultural trade, prices, demand, production, income and environmental effects. The presentation of the results focuses mainly on the developments of the German agricultural sector up to the year 2032 compared to the average of the base period 2018-2020. In the crop sector, results show that oilseed cultivation is likely to be expanded by 2032. This is because the oilseed sector becomes more competitive relative to grains driven by a stronger increase in yields as well as prices. In the meat sector, the decline in production observed in recent years due to higher environmental and animal welfare standards as well as changing dietary habits is expected to continue, especially for pork, while poultry production will continue to grow slightly until 2032. Moreover, favorable price developments on the milk market combined with a further increase in milk yield are likely to result in a moderate increase in milk deliveries over the projection period. The average real income of agricultural farms is expected to decline. In 2032 the real income of agricultural farms is likely to be significantly below the average level observed over the last ten years. |
| Keywords: | Agribusiness, Agricultural Finance, Financial Economics, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods |
| Date: | 2022–12–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:jhimwo:329579&r=cis |
| By: | Azhgaliyeva, Dina (Asian Development Bank Institute); Mishra, Ranjeeta (Asian Development Bank Institute); Long, Trinh (Asian Development Bank Institute); Morgan, Peter (Asian Development Bank Institute); Kodama, Wataru (Asian Development Bank Institute) |
| Abstract: | The impacts of the COVID-19 outbreak have heavily affected Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation (CAREC) member countries, which include Afghanistan, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, Mongolia, Pakistan, the People’s Republic of China (PRC), Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. The COVID-19 crisis and the resulting falls in demand and supply due both to uncertainty and policy measures such as lockdowns, “social distancing,” and travel restrictions are having a severe impact on employment and education in CAREC member countries. In order to better understand these impacts, computer-assisted telephone interviews (CATI) of households were conducted in 10 countries from the CAREC region (excluding the PRC). We estimate the impact of COVID-19 on employment, household business and education in schools in December 2020 compared with June 2020. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19; Central Asia; household survey; school education; employment; family business |
| JEL: | D14 G51 H12 H84 I10 I24 |
| Date: | 2022–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbiwp:1335&r=cis |
| By: | Radchenko Darya (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Makarov Andrey (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Rostislav Kirill (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Belyakova Natalia (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Sosnin Dmitry (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Maksimov Andrey (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Ponomarev Yuriy (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | In the Russian Federation 75% of the population live in cities and the quality of life cannot be considered separately from the quality of life of citizens. Modern cities and urban agglomerations act as development centers, accumulating factors that are the driving force of the innovation economy: financial resources, innovative technologies, infrastructure and qualified personnel. |
| Keywords: | financial resources, innovative technologies, infrastructure and qualified personnel |
| Date: | 2021–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:s21158&r=cis |
| By: | Anatoliy V Kostruba (Vasyl Stefanyk Precarpathian National University) |
| Abstract: | In the context of the European integration processes taking place in Ukraine, there is a convergence of the national legal system with the legal principles and provisions of the European Union, including in the field of corporate legal relations. The main purpose of this study was an independent study of problematic issues that arise upon the implementation of sub-standard remedies in corporate disputes to develop author's conclusions and recommendations to ensure sustainable and effective law enforcement practices. The methodological framework of this study included the principles of cognition of social phenomena in their historical development, interrelation, and interdependence, a dialectical approach to the study of theory and practice, the history and current state of law. The leading methods were historical, comparative legal, and dialectical. Based on the results of the investigation, the study covered the leading issues of the state of modern legal regulation of sub-standard remedies in corporate disputes in Ukraine; analysed the main issues of theoretical certainty regarding sub-standard remedies in corporate disputes and suggested new vectors of reforms concerning further improvement of law enforcement practice. The author's conclusion on the need to ensure the unity of law enforcement practice by introducing changes to the legislation of Ukraine towards detailed regulation of sub-standard remedies in corporate disputes, which also correlates with the reformation vectors of development of Ukraine in the context of European integration, will become a stable basis for further scientific research and legislative transformations in the field under study. |
| Keywords: | Remedies for corporate rights,derivative claim,derivative action,weak party,corporate legal relations Summary: 1 Introduction -2 Literature Review -3 Materials and Methods -4 Results -5 Discussion -6 Conclusions -References,Kostruba,Civil law doctrine,Company law,Company law harmonization,corporations |
| Date: | 2022–11–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03839400&r=cis |
| By: | Turzin Petr (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Yashina Elena (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Kovalev Sergey (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Generalov Andrey (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Evseev Alexandr (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Lukichev Konstantin (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | At present, great importance is attached to the problem of maintaining the professional health of the working-age population and prolonging professional longevity in the world and in the Russian Federation. This problem has become especially urgent in recent years, in connection with the change in the country's retirement age. |
| Keywords: | professional health, professional longevity |
| Date: | 2021–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:s21057&r=cis |
| By: | Abroskin Alexandr (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Bagdasaryan Knyaz (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Zaytsev Yuriy (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Knobel Alexandr (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Sedalishev Vladimir (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Turuntseva Marina (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | In this paper we estimate the degree of producer price rigidity in the Russian economy and identify the response of various industries to monetary policy shocks, taking into account the heterogeneity of the rigidity parameter. The first part of the paper reviews theoretical approaches to modeling producer price rigidity, including models in which price revisions depend either only on time, or only on the state of the economy, as well as a hybrid pricing model. |
| Keywords: | macroeconomy indicators, investments, total factor productivity, labor productivity |
| Date: | 2021–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:s21106&r=cis |
| By: | Timiryanova, Venera; Krasnoselskaya, Dina |
| Abstract: | External shocks affect the balance of supply and demand, and, consequently, the established price of goods. There were varying price reactions around the world in the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic. The sharp increase in demand and prices for many goods posed threats to food security. The difference in reactions determined the regional price variance, the study of which is relevant for the formation of a regional policy of food security. The paper presents the results of the spatial change assessment in food prices in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic in Russia. We conducted analysis within 28 product groups from January 1, 2019 to March 31, 2022. Used data are considered in relation to data on the number of people infected with COVID-19 across 83 Russian constituent entities since March 12, 2020 to March 31, 2022.The study focused on the analysis of spatial variance and spatial autocorrelation of prices. The results indicated that changing trends in spatial relationships had their own peculiarities for each product. The event itself, but not an increase in the number of cases affected prices’ dynamics that subsequently indirectly influenced the functioning of commodity markets and its filling with products. |
| Keywords: | spatial price, spatial analysis, external shocks, COVID-19, Global Moran's Index |
| JEL: | E31 R12 |
| Date: | 2022–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:114638&r=cis |
| By: | Schuster, Sebastian; Thema, Johannes; Kühlert, Markus; Venjakob, Maike; Vondung, Florin; Wagner, Oliver; Liedtke, Christa; Brauneis, Hannah; Heiser, Henri; Egole, Anouk; Hülsdünker, Timo; Ivanov, Angelika |
| Abstract: | Vor dem Hintergrund der zunehmenden Auswirkungen der Klimakrise und der durch den Angriffskriegs Russlands gegen die Ukraine entstandenen Energie- und Rohstoffversorgungsprobleme ist die Bundesregierung zu einem schnellen und zielführenden Handeln gezwungen. Neben der Herstellung von Versorgungssicherheit müssen die durch stark steigende Energie- und Lebensmittelpreise entstehenden sozialen Härten abgefedert werden. Um diese Aufgabe bestmöglich zu bewältigen, bedarf es eines politischen Instruments, das notwendige Veränderungen der Lebens- und Wirtschaftsweise ermöglicht und soziale Belastungen in den Krisen auffängt. Mit Blick auf diese Problemstellung werden in diesem Wuppertal Report bereits vorhandene politische Instrumente, deren Mittel nicht zweckgebunden verwendet werden müssen, einer SWOT-Analyse unterzogen und erste Ideen für ein sogenanntes Transformationsgeld vorgestellt, das die Mehrdimensionalität der derzeitigen Problemlage berücksichtigt. Das Transformationsgeld ist als zweckungebundene staatliche Transferleistung konzipiert, um die Freiheit der Konsument*innen nicht einzuschränken und Preiseffekte nicht zu nivellieren. Die Höhe der Transferleistung hängt von der ökonomischen Situation des Haushalts ab und soll nicht nur eine Kompensation der Mehrkosten darstellen, sondern gesellschaftliche Teilhabe ermöglichen. Abseits des Transformationsgelds liefert die Kurzstudie auch eine Einschätzung der Autor*innen, was aus ihrer Sicht kurzfristig gegen die bestehenden Probleme getan werden sollte. |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:wuprep:23&r=cis |
| By: | Éric Heyer (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po); Xavier Timbeau (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po); Christophe Blot (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po); Céline Antonin (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po); Amel Falah (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po); Sabine Le Bayon (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po); Catherine Mathieu (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po); Christine Rifflart (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po); Mathieu Plane (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po); Elliot Aurissergues; Magali Dauvin (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po); Pierre Madec (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po); Hervé Péléraux (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po); Raul Sampognaro (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po) |
| Abstract: | L'activité économique mondiale a connu un fort rebond en 2021: +5,8% après une baisse du PIB de 3,5% en 2020. Au début de l'année 2022, les problèmes d'approvisionnement ont persisté. L'invasion de l'Ukraine par la Russie a amplifié les tensions sur les prix de l'énergie, et plus particulièrement sur le prix du gaz, et fortement accru le risque géopolitique. Les ménages et les entreprises subissent les effets de ce choc via la baisse de leur pouvoir d'achat ou la hausse de leurs coûts de production. Pour lutter contre l'inflation, les banques centrales ont amorcé un resserrement de la politique monétaire qui se traduit par une remontée des taux. Sur le plan budgétaire, les gouvernements prennent des mesures visant soit à freiner la hausse des prix soit à amortir le choc sur les revenus. Le ralentissement de l'activité économique se confirmerait en fin d'année 2022 et au début de 2023. Pour autant, ce gel de l'activité serait temporaire. Les ménages parviendraient à amortir en partie la baisse de leur pouvoir d'achat en puisant dans l'épargne accumulée pendant la crise de la Covid. Sous l'hypothèse que la situation géopolitique ne se dégrade pas et ne conduise pas à une rupture d'approvisionnement en gaz, l'activité repartirait progressivement au deuxième trimestre 2023. Au niveau mondial, le PIB progresserait de 2,7 % en 2022 puis de 2% en 2023. Quelques pays, notamment l'Allemagne, l'Espagne et le Royaume-Uni subiraient une légère récession tandis que pour la France et les États-Unis, l'activité stagnerait. |
| Date: | 2022–10–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03829086&r=cis |
| By: | Karymshakov, Kamalbek (Asian Development Bank Institute); Azhgaliyeva, Dina (Asian Development Bank Institute); Mishra, Ranjeeta (Asian Development Bank Institute); Aseinov, Dastan (Asian Development Bank Institute) |
| Abstract: | We examine economic activity measured with firm performance indicators using the changes in intensity of night-time light in four Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation economies: Azerbaijan, Georgia, Kazakhstan, and Mongolia. The empirical analysis is based on the World Bank Enterprise Survey data for 2019 and a follow-up survey conducted during the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic. The enterprise survey dataset was enhanced with data on night-time light intensity from Google Earth and the strictness of “lockdown-style” policies. Using the probit regression model, we investigate the impact of COVID-19 on firm performance and night-time light in CAREC countries. Firm performance is measured using four variables: decrease in sales, demand, export share, and working hours. Our results show that, as the night-time light increases, the likelihood of performance deterioration is reduced. Larger firms are more likely to maintain their performance than smaller firms. The sales in the manufacturing, clothing, and services sectors are more likely to decline than those in the food sector. Accordingly, the results point to a significant decline in the performance of firms operating in the service sector compared with those in the food sector during the pandemic. |
| Keywords: | Central Asia; COVID-19; big data; firm performance; gender; SMEs |
| JEL: | C13 C25 C55 L25 |
| Date: | 2022–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbiwp:1332&r=cis |
| By: | Malahov Vladimir (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Simon Mark (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Lyetnyakov Denis (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Osipov Alexandr (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Motin Alexandr (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Vladimirova Yana (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Puchkov Yan (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Lomov Dmitry (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | The notion of “political accommodation” applied to the theory and practice of managing cultural diversity could enrich the Russian academic dictionary. Liberal democratic states invented specific mechanisms for political accommodation of cultural differences. Thanks to these mechanisms, the part of the population of a democratic state that is not ready to dissolve into the ethnocultural majority is more or less protected. |
| Keywords: | political accommodation |
| Date: | 2021–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:s21031&r=cis |
| By: | Margaryan, Atom; Grigoryan, Emil; Minassian, Armen |
| Abstract: | The Belt and Road Initiative is one of the platforms for regional cooperation that enables participating countries to develop and deepen economic ties. The South Caucasus has always had great historical, political, geographical and economic significance for Iran. Through the research, we tried to find out what is the level of infrastructure development of Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Türkiye and Iran, and what is the role of Iran in the trade of South Caucasus countries and Türkiye in 2002 and 2021. Armenia-Iran economic relations have been the closest. However, Armenia and Iran have not realized the full potential of cooperation. Providing a proper infrastructural base is one of the priority steps in that direction. |
| Keywords: | Silk Road Economic Belt,Economic Cooperation,Infrastructure,South Caucasus,Iran,Transit Hub,Economic Corridors |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:opodis:202212&r=cis |
| By: | Claudio Morana (Center for European Studies, University of Milano-Bicocca, Italy; Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis; CeRP, Collegio Carlo Alberto, Italy; CES, Harvard, USA) |
| Abstract: | This paper introduces a new decomposition of euro area headline inflation into core, cyclical and residual components. Our new core inflation measure, the structural core inflation rate, bears the interpretation of expected headline inflation, conditional to medium to long-term demand and supply-side developments. It shows smoothness and trending properties, economic content, and forecasting ability for headline inflation and other available core inflation measures routinely used at the ECB for internal or external communication. Hence, it carries additional helpful information for policy-making decisions. Concerning recent developments, all the inflation components contributed to its post-pandemic upsurge. Since mid-2021, core inflation has been on a downward trend, landing at about 3% in 2022. Cyclical and residual inflation -associated with idiosyncratic supply chains, energy markets, and geopolitical tensions- are currently the major threats to price stability. While some cyclical stabilization is ongoing, a stagflation scenario cum weakening overall financial conditions might be lurking ahead. A pressing issue for ECB monetary policy will be to face -mostly supply-side- inflationary pressure without triggering a financial crisis. |
| Keywords: | headline inflation, core inflation, Russia's war in Ukraine, COVID-19 pandemic, sovereign debt crisis, subprime financial crisis, dot-com bubble, euro area, ECB monetary policy, trend-cycle decomposition |
| JEL: | C22 C38 E32 F44 G01 |
| Date: | 2022–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rim:rimwps:22-14&r=cis |
| By: | Spirin, Victor |
| Abstract: | In the modern (economic) world, it is generally accepted that all countries, in order to grow their prosperity as soon as possible, must follow the principles of free trade, open markets, and unhindered movement of goods and capital. What is it based on? On a completely sincere belief in the infallibility of international trade models, which since the beginning of the twentieth century have shown that free trade leads to an absolute optimization of the use of global resources, and due to this, an increase in production and consumption. This paper pursues the following goals. We will first explain to the reader what these models were, how they evolved, and why, under the conditions in which they were created, they did lead to overall economic growth. We will argue that the assumptions on which these models were built are completely inapplicable to the modern world, in which economic development is determined by the presence of high technology. And further, we will show that under more realistic and current assumptions, these same models lead to the opposite result for developing countries. Namely, to increase, not to reduce, the gap between technologically advanced and developing countries. |
| Keywords: | International Economics, Free Trade |
| JEL: | F60 F62 F63 |
| Date: | 2022–11–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:115468&r=cis |
| By: | Elbek, Abdullaev; Taguchi, Hiroyuki |
| Abstract: | This study evaluates the degree of global value chains (GVC)’ backward participation in manufacturing in the post-Soviet countries, and to examine its quantitative linkage with host countries’ logistics performances as a component of the service link. This study’s major contributions are to target the post-Soviet countries that has never been discussed in the context of GVC analyses, to use the UNCTAD-Eora Global Value Chain database, and to applies a structural gravity trade model setting. The statistical observations presented a positive correlation between GVC backward participation in manufacturing and income level in the post-Soviet economies. The empirical estimation by the structural gravity trade model identified the quantitative linkage between GVC backward participation and the logistics performance of the host country, and also demonstrated that the level of logistics performance accounts for 70 – 80 percent of the degree of GVC backward participation. The policy implication of this study is that there should still be a policy space for the post-Soviet economies to improve their logistics performances by removing a negative legacy from the Soviet Union. |
| Keywords: | Global value chains, Logistics performance, Post-Soviet countries, Manufacturing, UNCTAD-Eora Global Value Chain database, and Structural gravity trade model |
| JEL: | F12 F13 F14 O57 |
| Date: | 2022–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:115443&r=cis |
| By: | Kornienko Natalya (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Korolev Georgy (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Yastrebova Ekaterina (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Minina Elena (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Bogatyreva Anna (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | The work resulted in recommendations on attracting young people to the civil service in order to reproduce the personnel potential of public administration, as well as to increase the attractiveness of the civil service in the labor market. For this, an analysis of the career preferences of young people, an analysis of the problems of staffing the civil service has been carried out. |
| Abstract: | Итогом работы стали рекомендации по привлечению молодежи на государственную службу с целью воспроизводства кадрового потенциала государственного управления, а также по повышению привлекательности государственной гражданской службы на рынке труда. Для этого выполнен анализ карьерных предпочтений молодежи, анализ проблем кадрового обеспечения государственной службы. |
| Keywords: | human resources, youth in public administration |
| Date: | 2021–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:s21187&r=cis |
| By: | Zika, Gerd (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Bernardt, Florian (GWS); Hummel, Markus (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Kalinowski, Michael (BIBB); Maier, Tobias (BIBB); Mönnig, Anke (GWS); Schneemann, Christian (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Wolter, Marc Ingo (GWS) |
| Abstract: | "The federal states in Germany are characterised by different population and economic structures, leading to different labour shortages and surpluses. Due to their varied developments, differences in the labour market performance of the federal states will persist in the future. With the help of the QuBe model (7th wave of the QuBe baseline projection), long-term immanent megatrends such as demographic development, economic structural change and digitalization are captured by the model - and effects on the economy and labour market can be illustrated by means of quantitative projections. The analysis shows that the future labour market development will be driven by demographic trends in the long term and thus by an increasing population decline. This effect prevails despite the changes in work patterns and behavioural changes in the wake of the Covid 19 pandemic and the current energy crisis. According to our prediction, the labour supply will decline in ten out of sixteen federal states until 2040, and particularly intense in the East German states. Exceptions are observed for Baden-Württemberg, Bavaria and Hessen as well as the city states of Berlin, Bremen and Hamburg. As a result, the demand for labour will decline simultaneously in most federal states. With the exception of Bavaria, Schleswig-Holstein and Hamburg, the unemployment rate is expected to decrease resulting in labour shortages in various economic sectors and occupations. Thus the recruitment of workers is likely to become increasingly difficult for employers in many economic sectors and regions in the longer term. The demand for qualified staff in the healthcare sector or in IT services will be continuously growing. Recruitment difficulties in these sectors will increase for companies in all German regions. Recruitment will also become more difficult in manufacturing/technical occupations, in which a high number of people with professional qualifications will be retiring. The return to its original growth path is all the more important for the German economy after the slump caused by rising energy costs as a consequence of the Russian attack on Ukraine. Only then, a persistence of unemployment and an increased withdrawal from the labour market can be effectively counteracted (Hutter/Weber 2020; Fuchs/Weber/Weber 2020). After all, people who permanently withdraw from the labour market exacerbate the recruitment situation from the firm’s perspective. The structural change, which has probably been accelerated by the pandemic and the energy crisis, is already posing major challenges especially for the German states where the manufacturing or automotive industries are dominating the economic structure. Due to increasing digitization and decarbonization the German economy has to be permanently modernized and requires capacity for innovation. For preventing a loss of competitiveness, a well-trained workforce is essential. This requires the best possible qualification of future generations and a willingness to engage in lifelong learning, as well as the attractiveness of Germany as a location for qualified migrants who are urgently needed in the labour market. Detailed results can be found in labour market dossiers on the individual German states (www.QuBe-Dossiers.de)." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en)) |
| Keywords: | IAB-Open-Access-Publikation |
| Date: | 2022–11–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iab:iabfob:202222&r=cis |
| By: | Doojav, Gan-Ochir (Asian Development Bank Institute) |
| Abstract: | We examine macroeconomic effects and transmission mechanisms of COVID-19 in Mongolia, a developing and commodity-exporting economy, by estimating a Bayesian structural vector autoregression on quarterly data. We find strong cross-border spillover effects of COVID-19. Our estimates suggest that the People’s Republic of China’s GDP and copper price shocks account, respectively, for three-fifths and one-fifth of the drop in real GDP in 2020Q1. The recovery observed for Q2 2020–Q1 2021 is primarily due to positive external shocks. However, disruptions in credit and labor markets have been sustained in the economy. Two-thirds of the fall in employment in Q1 2021 could be attributed to adverse labor demand shocks. We also reveal novel empirical evidence for the balance sheet channel of the exchange rate, the financial accelerator effects, and an indirect channel of wage shock to consumer price passing through bank credit. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19; demand and supply shocks; macroeconomic fluctuations; structural vector autoregression; Bayesian analysis |
| JEL: | C32 E17 E27 E32 I15 |
| Date: | 2022–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbiwp:1337&r=cis |
| By: | Nickolay V. Ryabchinskiy (National Research University Higher School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | Although there is an extensive research aimed at examining the existential aspects of F. Dostoevsky’s thought, no study has been reported about the problem of the Other as a fundamental concept in this field. The current study aims to partially meet this gap. The paper is divided into five parts, each of which is devoted to the consideration of the problem of the Other in a specific context of Dostoevsky’s existential thought. Such a division allows the author to identify the problem of the Other as one of the main determinants of Dostoevsky’s existential thought. Moreover, addressing the problem of the Other allows us to consider Dostoevsky’s existential thought in the context of modern philosophical discourse, thereby opening up new prospects for the further philosophical study of his legacy. The article is carried out as part of an ongoing research. |
| Keywords: | Dostoevsky, Other, All-Unity, neighbor, Heidegger, existential philosophy, Biblical Hermeneutics |
| JEL: | Z |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hig:wpaper:210/hum/2022&r=cis |