|
on Confederation of Independent States |
|
Issue of 2022‒12‒05
twenty-six papers chosen by Alexander Harin Modern University for the Humanities |
| By: | Hart, Oliver D.; Thesmar, David; Zingales, Luigi |
| Abstract: | We survey a representative sample of the U.S. population to understand stakeholders' desire to see their firms exit Russia after the invasion of Ukraine. 61% of respondents think that firms should exit Russia, regardless of the consequences. Only 37% think that leaving Russia is a purely business decision. If a firm does not conform with these desires, 66% of the respondents are willing to boycott it. This desire diminishes with the costs they face in boycotting. At $500, 43% would want to boycott. Our model is able to explain up to 24% of the cross-sectional variability in attitudes to boycotting. Nevertheless, it is difficult to separate deontological and consequentialist motives to boycott, because subjects' beliefs are highly correlated with values. When we randomize the beliefs we find a strong effect for shareholders, but not for the other stakeholders. We discuss what are the geopolitical and economic implications of a world where private corporations discontinue profitable business relationships for moral or political reasons. |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:cbscwp:323&r=cis |
| By: | Constantinos Syropoulos; Gabriel Felbermayr (Austrian Institute of Economic Research); Aleksandra Kirilakha; Erdal Yalcin; Yoto V. Yotov |
| Abstract: | This paper introduces the third update/release of the Global Sanctions Data Base (GSDB-R3). The GSDB-R3 extends the period of coverage from 1950-2019 to 1950-2022, which includes two special periods – COVID-19 and the war between Russia and Ukraine. The new update of the GSDB contains a total of 1,325 cases. In response to multiple inquiries and requests, the GSDB-R3 has been amended with a new variable that distinguishes between unilateral and multilateral sanctions. As before, the GSDB comes in two versions, case-specific and dyadic, which are freely available upon request at GSDB@drexel.edu. To highlight one of the new features of the GSDB, we estimate the heterogeneous effects of unilateral and multilateral sanctions on trade. We also obtain estimates of the effects on trade of the 2014 sanctions on Russia. |
| Keywords: | Sanctions, Covid-19, Russia, Multilateral Sanctions, Unilateral Sanctions |
| Date: | 2022–11–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wfo:wpaper:y:2022:i:651&r=cis |
| By: | Kalkschmied, Katja |
| Abstract: | The Caucasus region has experienced an increasing inflow of Chinese official development finance in the last twenty years. The inflow accelerated after the countries of the Caucasus region became participants in the Belt and Road Initiative. Chinese finance into Eurasia aims to build energy and economic corridors linking the European and Asian continents. Natural resource endowments and the geographic location between the two continents are favorable for these ambitions, and so are recent geopolitical developments. The war between Russia and Ukraine revokes new interest in the Middle Corridor energy and goods transportation routes running via the Caspian Sea and the Southern Caucasus. Much is to win from the TransCaucasus corridors for China, the European Union, and the Southern Caucasus countries but also for Kazakhstan and Turkey. Much is to lose also. This article infers on Chinese endeavors and lending specifics in the Caucasus region by looking at project-level data from the years 2000-20017. It concludes that the Southern Caucasus countries need to strategically manage the development cooperation offers from China and other powers to make the new interest in the region beneficial for them. This requires taking measures to ensure that foreign-financed projects meet domestic needs and interests and become effective for domestic development. |
| Keywords: | Development finance,Caucasus,China,BRI |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:opodis:202211&r=cis |
| By: | Röyskö, Aino; Simola, Heli |
| Abstract: | This brief considers the role of East Asian economies in Russia's technology imports. The EU, US and UK have set strict sanctions and export restrictions on Russia in response to the war in Ukraine, while responses from East Asian economies have been mixed. By restricting exports of technology production equipment and inputs, Japan, Korea, Taiwan and Singapore have substantially hindered the availability of certain technology products in Russia. China and most other emerging economies in East Asia have not imposed sanctions on Russia and thus could potentially provide substitutes for Russia for some technology imports restricted by sanctions. There is little evidence so far, however, of any such shift occurring. |
| Keywords: | Russia,trade,East Asia,sanctions,technology imports |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:bofitb:62022&r=cis |
| By: | Pitukhina, Maria; Tolstoguzov, Oleg; Belykh, Anastasia |
| Abstract: | Статья посвящена результатам социологического опроса двух типов респондентов (зарубежных трудовых мигрантов и принимающего сообщества) в пяти арктических регионах России (Ямало-ненецкий автономный округ, Чукотский автономный округ, Республика Карелия, Республика Саха (Якутия), Мурманская область). Результаты опроса зарубежных трудовых мигрантов позволили сформировать профайл зарубежного трудового мигранта в российской Арктике – это мужчина со средним профессиональным образованием. Результаты опроса принимающего сообщества позволили также сконструировать Индекс конфликтогенности и Индекс толерантности применительно к исследуемым пяти арктическим регионам. Очевидно, что Индекс конфликтогенности является повышенным в Республике Карелия и Республике Саха (Якутия), что верифицируется и на практике всплесками на межнациональной почве в августе 2006 и марте 2019 соответственно. Более спокойная обстановка складывается в Чукотском автономном округе и Мурманской области, о чем также свидетельствует Индекс толерантности. Цель статьи – определить возможности сотрудничества локального населения и приезжих зарубежных трудовых мигрантов в Арктике, принимая во внимание социально-экономические и этнические особенности арктических регионов. На основании проведенных социологических измерений, определяющих области напряжения, было сформулировано теоретическое обоснование, демонстрирующее, как происходит интеграция зарубежных трудовых мигрантов в субъектах Арктики и что может произойти при колебаниях социального климата. Для прогнозной оценки были использована структурная модель, определяющая вероятности возникновения конфликтов на межнациональной почве. Article deals with sociological survey results of two respondents types (foreign labour migrants and local community) within five Russian Arctic regions. Survey results of foreign labour migrants made it possible to create a foreign labour migrant profile in the Russian Arctic. Survey results of local community in the Russian Arctic made it possible to calculate both Conflict Index and Tolerance Index in relation to five Russian Arctic regions. It turned out that Conflict Index is still quite high at Republic of Karelia and Republic of Sakha. More peaceful situation takes place at Chukotka Autonomous District and Murmanskya oblast. Both empirical study and its theoretical generalization revealed foreign labour migrants’ integration issues in the Arctic as well as what might happen when social climate fluctuates. The goal of this article is to identify opportunities for cooperation between local communities and foreign labour migrants in the Arctic taking into account socio-economic and ethnic traits of Russian Arctic regions. Based on sociological toolkit a theoretical rationale was formulated in order to demonstrate how foreign labour migrants’ integration in the Arctic regions occurs and what might happen when social climate fluctuates. A structural model determining interethnic conflicts likelihood was also applied for predictive evaluation. |
| Keywords: | российская Арктика; зарубежная трудовая миграция; межнациональные отношения; Индекс конфликтогенности; Индекс толерантности; человеческий капитал; местные сообщества |
| JEL: | F22 R23 |
| Date: | 2022–07–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:115159&r=cis |
| By: | Bekirova, Olga; Zubarev, Andrey |
| Abstract: | Banks, acting as intermediaries in conducting settlements and providing liquidity to economic agents, play an important role in modern economic systems. At the same time, banking activity is associated with many risks that necessitates control from the regulator. Over the past 9 years, the Russian banking sector has experienced a transformation that resulted in a more than halving of the number of players in the banking system. However, a revoking a bank's license is not always associated with financial difficulties. In this paper, based on quarterly data on the financial statements of Russian banks for the period from mid-2013 to early 2022, using econometric methods of analysis, we estimated the factors that affect both the probability of bank default as well as other indicators of its activity – the risk of insolvency and profitability. The Z-score was used as an indicator of insolvency risk and the return on assets was used as an indicator of profitability. The results obtained showed that balance sheet ratios are significantly correlated with the probability of bank default, its risk of insolvency and profitability. The results support the “too-big-to-fail” hypothesis for the Russian banking sector, since larger banks have a lower probability of default, but a higher risk of insolvency. The insolvency risk is significantly negatively correlated with the probability of default and profitability. |
| Keywords: | banking sector, banking license revocation, insolvency risk, Z-score, return on assets, liquidity creation, Bank of Russia |
| JEL: | G21 G28 G33 |
| Date: | 2022–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:115164&r=cis |
| By: | Uri Dadush; Pauline Weil |
| Abstract: | The way to help Ukraine will be to assist in reconstruction and not place artificial impediments to immigration of those who have already suffered. |
| Date: | 2022–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bre:polbrf:node_8325&r=cis |
| By: | Syropoulos, Constantinos (Drexel University); Felbermayr, Gabriel (WIFO & Vienna University); Kirilakha, Aleksandra (Drexel University); Yalcin, Erdal (Konstanz University); Yotov, Yoto (Drexel University) |
| Abstract: | This paper introduces the third update/release of the Global Sanctions Data Base (GSDB-R3). The GSDB-R3 extends the period of coverage from 1950-2019 to 1950-2022, which includes two special periods – COVID-19 and the war between Russia and Ukraine. The new update of the GSDB contains a total of 1,325 cases. In response to multiple inquiries and requests, the GSDB-R3 has been amended with a new variable that distinguishes between unilateral and multilateral sanctions. As before, the GSDB comes in two versions, case-specific and dyadic, which are freely available upon request at GSDB@drexel.edu. To highlight one of the new features of the GSDB, we estimate the heterogeneous effects of unilateral and multilateral sanctions on trade. We also obtain estimates of the effects on trade of the 2014 sanctions on Russia. |
| Keywords: | Sanctions; COVID; Russia; Multilateral Sanctions; Unilateral Sanctions |
| JEL: | F13 F14 F51 |
| Date: | 2022–11–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:drxlwp:2022_011&r=cis |
| By: | Irina Provlotskaya (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Mikhail Maslennikov (National Medical and Surgical Center Named after N. I. Pirogov); Olga Dragoy (National Research University Higher School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | The Wada test or intracarotid amobarbital procedure is commonly used to determine hemisphere dominance for language and memory. This study presents the first standardised Wada protocol for Russian-speaking population. First, we provided the background on the Wada procedure and made the comparison of two most widely accepted standardised protocols, the Montreal and the Seattle ones. Next, the whole procedure of the Wada test according to our protocol was presented. Additionally, the main types of speech errors that may occur during the procedure were analysed. The protocol was first tested in 20 non-brain-damaged participants. Finally, the newly designed protocol was clinically piloted, with resulted in revealing its high reliability. With the new protocol, it was possible to determine for each of the tested patients, which hemisphere was responsible for language, and which - for memory. |
| Keywords: | language, memory, Wada, fMRI, EEG, the Russian language, Seattle protocol, Montreal protocol |
| JEL: | Z |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hig:wpaper:110/lng/2022&r=cis |
| By: | Chowdhry, Sonali; Hinz, Julian; Kamin, Katrin; Wanner, Joschka |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the impact of coalitions on the economic costs of the 2012 Iran and 2014 Russia sanctions. By estimating and simulating a quantitative general equilibrium trade model under different coalition set-ups, we (i) dissect welfare losses for sanction-senders and target; (ii) compare prospective coalition partners and; (iii) provide bounds for the sanctions potential - the maximum welfare change attainable - when sanctions are scaled vertically, i.e. across sectors up to an embargo, or horizontally, i.e. across countries up to a global regime. To gauge the significance of simulation outcomes, we implement a Bayesian bootstrap procedure that generates confidence bands. We find that the implemented measures against Iran and Russia inflicted considerable economic harm, yielding 32 - 37% of the vertical sanctions potential. Our key finding is that coalitions lower the average welfare loss incurred from sanctions relative to unilateral implementation. They also increase the welfare loss imposed on Iran and Russia. Adding China to the coalition further amplifies the welfare loss by 79% for Iran and 22% for Russia. Finally, we quantify transfers that would equalize losses across coalition members. These hypothetical transfers can be seen as a sanctions-equivalent of NATO spending goals and provide a measure of the relative burden borne by coalition countries. |
| Keywords: | Sanctions,Embargoes,Alliances,Sectoral linkages |
| JEL: | F10 F13 F14 F51 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwkwp:2234&r=cis |
| By: | Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens; Groll, Dominik; Hoffmann, Timo; Jannsen, Nils; Kooths, Stefan; Meuchelböck, Saskia; Sonnenberg, Nils |
| Abstract: | The German economy is in a downward spiral. The recent price jumps for electricity and gas will reduce the purchasing power of private households and lead to a decline in private consumer spending. In addition, the slowing world economy will dampen not only exports but also investment activity. As a result, the German economy will slide into recession once again, at a time when it was just recovering from the pandemic-related crisis. In our summer forecast, we assumed that the recovery would prevail despite the burdens of the war in Ukraine and that GDP would rise strongly. Now we expect GDP to increase by only 1.4 percent in the current year (summer forecast: 2.1 per cent). In 2023, it is expected to decline by 0.7 percent (summer forecast: +3.3 percent). In 2024, when the impact of the negative factors fades out, GDP will increase by 1.7 percent. Provided that prices for electricity and gas remain high for a longer period of time - as markets currently expect - inflation is likely to rise from its record level of 8 percent in the current year to 8.7 percent in 2023, as market prices for electricity and gas reach consumer prices only with some delay. In 2024, when energy prices moderate somewhat, inflation is likely to settle down significantly. The recession will also leave its mark on the labour market. However, due to the shortage of skilled workers, the impact is likely to be comparatively moderate. The unemployment rate will rise from 5.3 percent this year to 5.6 percent in 2023. Despite considerable additional expenditures to cushion the high energy prices, the government's fiscal balance will probably hardly deteriorate, as the high upward pressure on prices leads to additional revenues. The ratio of gross debt to nominal GDP is even expected to decline from 68.7 percent in 2021 to 64.6 per cent in 2024, as nominal GDP will rise strongly due to the high price increases. |
| Keywords: | business cycle forecast,stabilization policy,leading indicators,outlook |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwkeo:95&r=cis |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | The FSAP took place against the background of a fast-evolving financial sector in Ireland and heightened uncertainty in the global economy. The Irish financial landscape has undergone significant changes since the global financial crisis with increasing divergence between an innovative and fast-growing international finance sector and the retail banking sector that has been consolidating and faces post-GFC operating restrictions and increasing competition from non-bank players. In the meantime, both the global pandemic and Brexit have left uneven marks across the economy, while there are risks from the unwinding of public support that has softened COVID-19 shock’s impact on the economy. Going forward, various ongoing and emerging risks, such as persistent inflationary pressures, fueled by supply bottlenecks, and the war in Ukraine, may impede recovery, and magnify vulnerabilities to downside shocks. |
| Date: | 2022–11–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2022/337&r=cis |
| By: | Denis DAVYDOV (Hanken School of Economics); Tatiana GARANINA (University of Vaasa); Laurent WEILL (LaRGE Research Center, Université de Strasbourg) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the effect of executive board gender diversity on the relationship between economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and bank liquidity hoarding (LH). We focus on the Russian banking sector, which, relative to most of the world, has a high share of women on bank executive boards. Using the news-based EPU index developed by Baker, Bloom, and Davis (2016) and LH measures proposed by Berger, Guedhami, Kim, and Li (2022), we exploit a unique dataset from the Russian banking sector. While higher economic policy uncertainty tends to increase liquidity hoarding, we find this effect diminishes as gender diversity of the board increases. We attribute this finding to the moderating influence of gender diversity on stability and overreaction in decision-making. These results argue for policies to promote gender diversity of bank boards as a means of limiting detrimental effects of economic policy uncertainty. |
| Keywords: | Liquidity hoarding; Bank boards; Gender diversity; Economic policy uncertainty. |
| JEL: | G18 G21 G34 P26 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lar:wpaper:2022-08&r=cis |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | With inflation rising, countries are taking a close look at their methods and practices for compiling the consumer price index (CPI). This technical assistance mission supported the National Bureau of Statistics of the Republic of Moldova with reviewing CPI compilation methods and recommending improvements. This included updating methods for pricing transportation services, telecommunication services and rents. |
| Keywords: | Prices; Inflation; IMF's Statistics department; CPI manual; staff team of the International Monetary Fund; consumer price index mission; methodology paper; IMF executive directors; Consumer price indexes |
| Date: | 2022–11–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2022/336&r=cis |
| By: | Dmitrii Tereshchenko (National Research University Higher School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | The Russian grocery retail industry has developed dynamically over the past two decades. The accompanying changes in competition and consumer behaviour make it an interesting subject for analysis, but full-fledged empirical studies in this area have not yet been conducted. This is largely due to the difficulty of accessing data on retail, which are often subject to commercial secrecy. However, in recent years the situation has changed and some data have become available to researchers. In this paper, we describe the data we obtained for the study of the grocery retailing industry in St. Petersburg. Particularly, we describe three blocks of data, including (i) store location data, (ii) socioeconomic characteristics of local markets, and (iii) sales data. For each data block, we outline the stages of data collection and processing, and provide basic descriptive statistics and graphs. In addition, we discuss the potential uses of the collected data in further research. |
| Keywords: | retail industries, grocery sector, market studies |
| JEL: | L0 L81 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hig:wpaper:258/ec/2022&r=cis |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | At the request of the Ministry of Finance (MoF) Republic of Kazakhstan, a technical assistance mission was conducted by the IMF’s Statistics Department (STA) to assist the Kazakhstan authorities in strengthening the compilation and dissemination of government finance statistics (GFS) and public sector debt statistics (PSDS) for decision making and providing data to the Fund for surveillance. The technical mission focused on addressing issues encountered in the annual GFS time series; assisting with the classification of the Problem Loan Fund (PLF) data for their inclusion in GFS; discussing the MoF’s opportunities and limitations in submitting PSDS; and reviewing the procedures for assigning institutional units to the general government sector (GGS) and the public sector (PS) to derive a uniformed public sector institutional table (PSIT) across all macroeconomic statistics. |
| Keywords: | Government Finance Statistics; Public Sector Debt Statistics; Public Sector Institutional Table; IMF mission; IMF's Statistics Department; authorities of the Republic of Kazakhstan; IMF Statistics Department |
| Date: | 2022–10–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2022/331&r=cis |
| By: | Maryana Balezina (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Elena Agadullina (National Research University Higher School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | The focus of this research is devaluation of bisexuality, which is a belief that bisexuality is an unreal and unstable identity. So far scholars have described four devaluation strategies: bisexuality as a phase, bisexuality as promiscuousness, bisexuality as a male gaze, and bisexuality as internalized homophobia. Based on empirical research (N = 2338) conducted on a Russian sample, we evaluated gender, sexual orientation, and ambivalent sexism (hostile and benevolent) as predictors of different devaluation strategies. The results showed that for all devaluation strategies women with monosexual identity (gay and heterosexual women) devalue women’s bisexuality stronger than non-monosexual persons (bisexual women). Moreover, hostile and benevolent sexism independently predicts devaluation of women’s bisexual identity in all cases. The obtained results are discussed in the context of bisexuality’s nature and deviation from gender roles |
| Keywords: | devaluation, bisexuality, gender, sexuality, ambivalent sexism |
| JEL: | Z00 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hig:wpaper:133psy2022&r=cis |
| By: | Koops, Judith Christel (Radboud University) |
| Abstract: | Contraceptive prevalence and unmet need for family planning are two metrics needed to track the progress of Sustainable Development Goal 3.7 which aims to ensure universal access to sexual and reproductive health-care services by 2030. Research on unmet need for family planning and to a lesser extend contraceptive prevalence are mostly focused on high-fertility countries situated in the Global South. The Generations and Gender Survey is a cross-national longitudinal survey which collects information on population and family dynamics in low-fertility settings in Europe, Asia and South America. Recently, its questionnaire was adjusted in order to capture all information needed to calculate unmet need for family planning and contraceptive prevalence. Calculating these family planning indicators can be difficult and is time-consuming. To reduce this burden, this technical paper demonstrates how to calculate unmet need for family planning and contraceptive prevalence with Generations and Gender Survey data collected in the Republic of Moldova. By making the calculation reproducible, this paper aims to stimulate family planning research in low-fertility settings. |
| Date: | 2022–07–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:kebvx&r=cis |
| By: | Akhmedyarov, Yerbol; Issabayev, Dulat; , Laura |
| Abstract: | “The Kazakhstan dairy enterprises’ problem analysis and the ways for their innovative activity development” research article is explaining the situation of dairy industry and agricultural sector in Kazakhstan Republics. Authors are referring to different sources to show what is happening with the milk production and why. To compare the situation authors are giving examples of innovations of other countries where such problems were successfully eliminated and dairy production and quality has increased. Finally, authors have proposed necessary actions to be made by different parties. |
| Date: | 2022–10–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:czujd&r=cis |
| By: | Éric Heyer (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po); Xavier Timbeau (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po); Christophe Blot (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po); Céline Antonin (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po); Amel Falah (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po); Sabine Le Bayon (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po); Catherine Mathieu (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po); Christine Rifflart (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po); Mathieu Plane (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po); Elliot Aurissergues; Magali Dauvin (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po); Pierre Madec (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po); Hervé Péléraux (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po); Raul Sampognaro (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po) |
| Abstract: | L'activité économique mondiale a connu un fort rebond en 2021: +5,8% après une baisse du PIB de 3,5% en 2020. Au début de l'année 2022, les problèmes d'approvisionnement ont persisté. L'invasion de l'Ukraine par la Russie a amplifié les tensions sur les prix de l'énergie, et plus particulièrement sur le prix du gaz, et fortement accru le risque géopolitique. Les ménages et les entreprises subissent les effets de ce choc via la baisse de leur pouvoir d'achat ou la hausse de leurs coûts de production. Pour lutter contre l'inflation, les banques centrales ont amorcé un resserrement de la politique monétaire qui se traduit par une remontée des taux. Sur le plan budgétaire, les gouvernements prennent des mesures visant soit à freiner la hausse des prix soit à amortir le choc sur les revenus. Le ralentissement de l'activité économique se confirmerait en fin d'année 2022 et au début de 2023. Pour autant, ce gel de l'activité serait temporaire. Les ménages parviendraient à amortir en partie la baisse de leur pouvoir d'achat en puisant dans l'épargne accumulée pendant la crise de la Covid. Sous l'hypothèse que la situation géopolitique ne se dégrade pas et ne conduise pas à une rupture d'approvisionnement en gaz, l'activité repartirait progressivement au deuxième trimestre 2023. Au niveau mondial, le PIB progresserait de 2,7 % en 2022 puis de 2% en 2023. Quelques pays, notamment l'Allemagne, l'Espagne et le Royaume-Uni subiraient une légère récession tandis que pour la France et les États-Unis, l'activité stagnerait. |
| Date: | 2022–10–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:spmain:hal-03829086&r=cis |
| By: | Teixeira da Silva, Jaime A. |
| Abstract: | One of the world’s most tense geopolitical conflicts, apart from the current ongoing Russo-Ukrainian war, is that between Taiwan (Republic of China) and China (People’s Republic of China). To avoid getting involved in a political fray, academics might silently avoid naming Taiwan, or not refer to it as a country. Ultimately, authors are left to their own devices when it comes to referring to Taiwan, uncertain of the name that should be used to indicate it. Authors might observe broad disclaimers on publishers’ websites, in the footer of editorial board pages, or even footnotes in their own published manuscripts placed there by publishers, that distance the publisher from geopolitical conflicts and/or territorial claims. Although not mentioned by name in such disclaimers, they would include the China-Taiwan conflict or the ongoing Russo-Ukrainian war, such as the annexed Crimean Peninsula. However, such disclaimers are self-serving and self-protecting, placing the onus of responsibility of the choice of term solely on authors’ shoulders. Since academics might perceive this as unfair protection, publishers should offer clear advice to editors and authors on how to handle these issues sensitively, and how to name locations in geopolitically sensitive areas accurately. Papers with insufficient sensitivity to such issues may be labelled as erroneous, subjecting them to retraction, or they may be subjected to public criticism, so resolving this issue is also an ethical matter in the realm of academic publishing. Currently, no advice exists for such geopolitical issues in two of the most popular ethics-related publishing guidelines, by COPE and the ICMJE. |
| Date: | 2022–08–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:cmydz&r=cis |
| By: | Ghazaryan, Armen Ju.; Marukyan, Liana; Abrahamyan, Meline V.; Ayvazyan, Meline A. |
| Abstract: | The EU's relations with Armenia are based on the EU - Armenia Comprehensive and Enhanced Partnership Agreement (CEPA), which was signed on November 24, 2017, and entered into force on March 31, 2021. Within the framework of this agreement, the cooperation of the EU and Armenia in various spheres is envisaged. The EU's support, in particular for the development of democracy and political, economic and institutional stability, is very important for the Republic of Armenia. From an economic point of view, the EU is one of the most colossal donors providing financial aid and doing foreign investment, which is an important component both in promoting exports in general and especially in the high-tech sector. The article aims to present in detail the existing achievements in the field of economic and legal cooperation, the prospects and opportunities for deepening sectoral cooperation, taking into account the potential mutual economic benefits that the EU and Armenia could have within the framework of the Armenian North-South Road Corridor and the Belt and Road Initiative. |
| Keywords: | EU-Armenia cooperation,CEPA,Belt and Road Initiative,Armenian North-South Road |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:opodis:20229&r=cis |
| By: | Bakumenko, Gennady (Armavir Socio-Psychological Institute (ASPI)); Gaidukov, Vadim G.; Владимирович, Анисимов Виктор |
| Abstract: | The collection presents to the scientific community selected articles based on the reports of the Annual Reporting Conference of Grant Holders of the Kuban Science Foundation. Fund experts tried to highlight the advanced achievements of Kuban scientists in order to reflect in the collection the most relevant areas of scientific and technological development of the region. The book will be useful to students and young scientists, specialists of certain branches of science and managers of regional scientific and technological development. Сборник представляет научному сообществу избранные статьи по докладам Ежегодной отчетной конференции грантодержателей Кубанского научного фонда. Эксперты фонда постарались выделить передовые достижения кубанских ученых, чтобы отразить в сборнике наиболее актуальные направления научно?технического развития региона. Книга будет интересна студентам и молодым ученым, специалистам отдельных отраслей науки и менеджерам регионального научно-технического развития. |
| Date: | 2022–10–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:avutf&r=cis |
| By: | Daryna Grechyna (Department of Economic Theory and Economic History, University of Granada.) |
| Abstract: | Despite the global commitment to fostering peace, the world suffers from violent conflicts. Related literature connects intrastate ethnic conflicts to polarization, but the relationship between the other types of conflicts and polarization is unclear. I build a simple model where conflicts initiated by an external aggressor can reduce the political polarization of a country. Furthermore, I assess how violent conflicts in the form of foreign state-supported territorial disputes are related to the region-specific political support of the winner in presidential and parliamentary elections, exploring regional panel data from Georgia and Ukraine. The analysis suggests that differences in political preferences across regions decrease after a conflict. Finally, I confirm a negative association between conflicts and political polarization using country-level data from around the world. The model and evidence from the country-level data suggest that the structure of public policy could be a potential channel for political preferences alignment after a conflict. |
| Keywords: | violent conflict; political polarization; panel data. |
| Date: | 2022–11–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gra:wpaper:22/16&r=cis |
| By: | Bakumenko, Gennady (Armavir Socio-Psychological Institute (ASPI)) |
| Abstract: | Все данные были собраны из открытых источников, связанных с официальным сайтом Унитарной некоммерческой организацией «Кубанский научный фонд». Автор атрибутирует темы исследований со стратегическими целями социально-экономического развития Краснодарского края. All data was collected from open sources associated with the official website of the Unitary non-profit organization "Kuban Science Foundation". The author attributes research topics to the strategic goals of the socio-economic development of the Krasnodar Territory. |
| Date: | 2022–10–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:tgn8f&r=cis |
| By: | Michelino, Arthur |
| Abstract: | La rivalité entre grandes puissances et la réémergence d’une compétition stratégique à long terme entre les États-Unis, la Chine et la Russie ont intensifié l’utilisation de la coercition dans les affaires internationales. Cet essai examine le cadre théorique de la coercition et la manière dont les mesures coercitives sont conçues pour atteindre la supériorité stratégique. Pour la théorie réaliste, les changements majeurs dans l’équilibre des forces sont une source puissante de conflit et de guerre et impliquent que les intérêts doivent être maintenus par l’exercice du pouvoir. L’essai conclut que la politique du pouvoir est l’histoire de la lutte pour la domination par la violence et l’intrigue entre les nations. |
| Date: | 2022–10–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:bv2ec&r=cis |