nep-cis New Economics Papers
on Confederation of Independent States
Issue of 2022‒11‒07
nineteen papers chosen by

  1. How realistic is Belt and Road Initiative for Kyrgyzstan and Central Asian Countries? By Akmoldoev, Kiyalbek
  2. The impact of the war on Russian imports: a synthetic control method approach By Borin, Alessandro; Conteduca, Francesco Paolo; Mancini, Michele
  3. Bracing for the Winter By Vasily Astrov; Alexandra Bykova; Rumen Dobrinsky; Selena Duraković; Richard Grieveson; Doris Hanzl-Weiss; Marcus How; Gabor Hunya; Branimir Jovanović; Niko Korpar; Sebastian Leitner; Isilda Mara; Bernhard Moshammer; Beate Muck; Olga Pindyuk; Sandor Richter; Bernd Christoph Ströhm; Maryna Tverdostup; Nina Vujanović; Zuzana Zavarská; Adam Żurawski
  4. On the Design of Effective Sanctions: The Case of Bans on Exports to Russia By Ricardo Hausmann; Ulrich Schetter; Muhammed A. Yildirim
  5. Shock propagation in international multilayer food-production network determines global food availability: the case of the Ukraine war By Moritz Laber; Peter Klimek; Martin Bruckner; Liuhuaying Yang; Stefan Thurner
  6. Debt Service: Evidence Based on Consolidated Statements of Russian Companies By Anna Burova; Denis Koshelev; Natalia Makhankova
  7. Regionale Arbeitsmarktprognosen 2022/2023: Krisen dämpfen die positive Entwicklung in nahezu allen Regionen (Crises dampen the positive development in almost all regions) By Heining, Jörg; Jost, Oskar; Rossen, Anja; Roth, Duncan; Teichert, Christian; Weyh, Antje
  8. Distributional Impacts of Taxes and Benefits in Post-Soviet Countries By Fuchs Tarlovsky,Alan; Matytsin,Mikhail; Nozaki,Natsuko Kiso; Popova,Daria
  9. Community, state and market: Understanding historical water governance evolution in Central Asia By Amirova, Iroda; Petrick, Martin; Djanibekov, Nodir
  10. Zum Einfluss der jüngsten Gas- und Strompreisanstiege auf die Verbraucherpreis By Sonnenberg, Nils
  11. Verschwörungsdenken und die Abwertung Ukraine-Geflüchteter in der sich zuspitzenden Energiekrise: Analysen anhand des Erwerbspersonenpanels der Hans-Böckler-Stiftung By Hövermann, Andreas
  12. The Ukraine war and its food security implications in Nepal By Bhatta, Astha
  13. An analysis of farm support measures in the Republic of Moldova By Möllers, Judith; Herzfeld, Thomas; Batereanu, Lucia; Arapi-Gjini, Arjola
  14. What Are the Benefits of Government Assistance with Household Energy Bills ? Evidence from Ukraine By Alberini,Anna; Umapathi,Nithin
  15. Prognose und Prognosekorrektur für das Jahr 2022 By Jannsen, Nils
  16. Romania: 2022 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Romania By International Monetary Fund
  17. The impact of COVID-19 on agrifood systems and rural areas in Central Asia and Caucasus countries: Final report of a study commissioned by FAO By Djanibekov, Nodir; Herzfeld, Thomas
  18. Republic of Moldova: Technical Assistance Report-National Accounts Statistics Mission By International Monetary Fund
  19. La Mobilité sociale perçue par les Français By Alezra, Dylan; Senik, Claudia

  1. By: Akmoldoev, Kiyalbek
    Abstract: Due to the geographical location of the Central Asian countries and Kyrgyzstan, which do not have direct access to the sea, there is a dependence on the transport route via Kazakhstan, Russia, and Belarus to trade goods with the European market. The Chinese BRI project would offer an alternative for Central Asian countries to connect economically with European, Middle Eastern and West Asian countries. However, turning away from Russia and toward China holds potential for conflict. Therefore, the main objective of this article is to analyze the BRI projects in Central Asia and predict how realistic it is to implement them without the "permission" of the Russian Federation. In doing so, it takes a closer look at the strategic interest for China in Central Asia and how the BRI project in Kyrgyzstan is performing. The SWOT analysis points to a win-win situation, which, however, comes with a warning to be cautious. Particular attention should be paid to financial dependence on China, which could be due to a debt trap.
    Keywords: Belt and Road Initiative,Kyrgyzstan,Geopolitics,Debt-Trap,Silk Road Route
    Date: 2022
  2. By: Borin, Alessandro; Conteduca, Francesco Paolo; Mancini, Michele
    Abstract: In response to the invasion of Ukraine, the EU and most other advanced economies imposed extensive sanctions on Russia, intending to harm its production capabilities and hinder its economic activities by restricting its access to international trade and financial markets. Using the synthetic control method, this paper finds that the war and following sanctions reduced aggregate exports to Russia by half between March-July, with the effects being stronger for sanctioning countries (-56%) than for non-sanctioning ones (-32%). The war has disproportionately affected exports to Russia in automotive and electronics.
    Keywords: Synthetic Control,Russia,Sanctions,International trade,War
    JEL: F51 C54 F13
    Date: 2022
  3. By: Vasily Astrov (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Alexandra Bykova (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Rumen Dobrinsky (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Selena Duraković (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Richard Grieveson (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Doris Hanzl-Weiss (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Marcus How; Gabor Hunya (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Branimir Jovanović (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Niko Korpar (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Sebastian Leitner (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Isilda Mara (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Bernhard Moshammer (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Beate Muck (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Olga Pindyuk (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Sandor Richter (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Bernd Christoph Ströhm; Maryna Tverdostup (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Nina Vujanović (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Zuzana Zavarská (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Adam Żurawski
    Abstract: Economic growth in CESEE in the first half of 2022 was better than expected, and our growth forecasts for this year have been mostly revised upwards. However, global economic conditions are increasingly gloomy, and the worst is yet to come. Inflation is eroding real incomes, consumer confidence is evaporating, business sentiment is deteriorating, interest rates are soaring, and the fiscal space is shrinking. The war in Ukraine will most probably continue at least through 2023, with virtually no scope for a peace agreement. And on top of all that, there is the energy crunch. The CESEE region will probably grow only by 0.3% next year, close to the 0.2% growth that we assume for the euro area.
    Keywords: CESEE Central and Eastern Europe, economic forecast, Western Balkans, CIS, Ukraine, Russia, Turkey, EU, euro area, convergence, business cycle, coronavirus, COVID, labour markets, unemployment, Russia-Ukraine war, Russia sanctions, commodity prices, inflation, price controls, trade disruptions, Ukrainian refugees, energy crisis, gas, electricity, monetary policy, fiscal policy, impact on Austria
    JEL: E20 E21 E22 E24 E32 E5 E62 F21 F31 H60 I18 J20 J30 O47 O52 O57 P24 P27 P33 P52
    Date: 2022–10
  4. By: Ricardo Hausmann (Center for International Development at Harvard University); Ulrich Schetter (Center for International Development at Harvard University); Muhammed A. Yildirim (Center for International Development at Harvard University)
    Abstract: We analyze the effects of bans on exports at the level of 5000 products and show how our results can inform economic sanctions against Russia after its invasion of Ukraine. We begin with characterizing export restrictions imposed by the EU and the US until mid-May 2022. We then propose a theoretically-grounded criterion for targeting export bans at the 6-digit HS level. Our results show that the cost to Russia are highly convex in the market share of the sanctioning parties, i.e., there are large benefits from coordinating export bans among a broad coalition of countries. Applying our results to Russia, we find that sanctions imposed by the EU and the US are not systematically related to our arguments once we condition on Russia’s total imports of a product from participating countries. Quantitative evaluations of the export bans show (i) that they are very effective with the costs to Russia typically being by a factor of ∼100 larger than the costs to the sanctioners. (ii) Improved coordination of the sanctions and targeting sanctions based on our criterion allows to increase the costs to Russia by about 60% with little to no extra cost to the sanctioners. (iii) There is scope for increasing the cost to Russia further by expanding the set of sanctioned products.
    Keywords: Export Ban, Input-Output Linkages, Quantitative Trade Model, Russia, Sanctions, Ukraine
    Date: 2022–09
  5. By: Moritz Laber; Peter Klimek; Martin Bruckner; Liuhuaying Yang; Stefan Thurner
    Abstract: The war in Ukraine highlighted the vulnerability of the global food supply system. Due to dependencies in the global food-production network, the local loss of one crop can lead to shortages in other countries and affect other products made from it. Previous studies treat products in isolation and do not account for product conversion during production. Here, we reveal the losses of 125 food products after a localized shock to agricultural production in 192 countries using a multilayer network model of trade (direct) and conversion of food products (indirect), thereby quantifying $10^8$ shock transmissions. We find that a complete agricultural production loss in Ukraine has highly heterogeneous impacts on other countries, causing relative losses of 89% in sunflower oil and 85% in maize via direct effects, and up to 25% in poultry meat via indirect impacts. Our model offers a general framework to assess systemic risks in the food system
    Date: 2022–10
  6. By: Anna Burova (Bank of Russia, Russian Federation); Denis Koshelev (Bank of Russia, Russian Federation); Natalia Makhankova (Bank of Russia, Russian Federation)
    Abstract: This paper features a modification of the debt service ratio by expanding the debt service concept and breaking down debt service and debt by currency, and using consolidated data. Our debt service analysis also takes into account the company’s ability to meet its current liabilities with cash and funds borrowed under credit lines. Our sectoral analysis of Russian companies highlights sectors of particular concern. The machinery and electronic components sector has a large share of non-profitable companies with a small amount of cash, on the one hand, and profitable companies’ DSRs are higher on average than in other sectors, on the other hand. Oil and gas companies and firms in metals, mining and chemicals and agriculture largely have a big difference between the share of rouble debt service and the share of revenue originating from Russia and CIS countries, which indicates exposure to currency risks (although companies hedge their foreign currency risks with cross-currency and interest rate swaps). Credit lines may be a source of funds to meet current liabilities, but actually, they only allow postponing payments building up debt service for future periods. Using simulation of a 25% revenue shock, we demonstrate a significant increase in the debt service ratio, especially in such sectors as machinery, construction and real estate, and energy. The use of credit lines concurrently with the emergence of this shock brings financial stability risks for the broader economy.
    Keywords: debt service, debt service ratio, sectoral analysis, revenue shock
    JEL: F31 G32 L60 L70 L90
    Date: 2022–10
  7. By: Heining, Jörg (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Jost, Oskar (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Rossen, Anja (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Roth, Duncan (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Teichert, Christian (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Weyh, Antje (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany)
    Abstract: "The impacts of the Russian war against Ukraine slow down the recovery of the German labor market. Employment rises in all federal states only slightly. However, we expect a weaker employment growth in urban regions than compared to rural areas. At the same time, we observe an increase in unemployment in almost every federal state." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
    Keywords: IAB-Open-Access-Publikation
    Date: 2022–10–07
  8. By: Fuchs Tarlovsky,Alan; Matytsin,Mikhail; Nozaki,Natsuko Kiso; Popova,Daria
    Abstract: This study compares the distributional impacts of the main tax and social spendingprograms in eight countries of the former Soviet Union (Armenia, Belarus, Georgia, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, the RussianFederation, Tajikistan, and Ukraine) by applying a state-of-the-art fiscal incidence analysis based on theCommitment to Equity methodology. The region is highly interesting due to a unique combination of strong elementsof path dependency (socialist legacies) with radical liberalization and welfare state retrenchment. The studyexamines the actual outcomes in terms of inequality and poverty and assesses the extent to which these outcomes canbe attributed to various welfare state policies in these countries. It examines the extent to which taxes and socialspending are progressive (whether the average transfer declines with income) and equalizing (whether they reduceinequality). In contrast to the majority of fiscal incidence studies, which are typically limited to the assessment ofthe impact of direct taxes and transfers, the study estimates the cumulative impact of the tax-benefit system asa whole, including direct and indirect taxes, cash transfers, and transfers in kind such as public educationand health care.
    Keywords: Inequality,Economic Adjustment and Lending,Macro-Fiscal Policy,Public Sector Economics,Public Finance Decentralization and Poverty Reduction,Disability,Access of Poor to Social Services,Services & Transfers to Poor,Economic Assistance,Educational Sciences
    Date: 2021–10–06
  9. By: Amirova, Iroda; Petrick, Martin; Djanibekov, Nodir
    Abstract: In Central Asia, community water governance institutions emerged and prevailed for a long time. By employing an analytical modelling approach using variants of the evolutionary Hawk-Dove game, we scrutinise three epochs' (pre-Tsarist, Tsarist and Soviet) coordination mechanisms and qualitatively compare them in the efficiency spectrum. We find that the pre-Tsarist community water governance setting, due to its synergetic and pluralistic aspects, was associated with higher efficiency than the Tsarist and Soviet periods' settings. The pre-Tsarist community arrangement linked irrigation duties with benefits. Our analytical model reveals how the Tsarist Russian regulation that replaced the election-sanctioning element with a de-facto system appointing the irrigation staff and paying them fixed wages corrupted the well-established pre-Tsarist decentralised water governance. We term this move the "Kaufman drift". Resulting inadequacies in the water governance could have been averted either by restoring the community mechanism's election-sanctioning attribute or else with an alternative approach such as privatising water resources. With the use of the "Krivoshein game," we produce an alternative scenario for the region where we envisage the potential consequences of the water privatisation. Modelling history might not disentangle the complex nature of water governance evolution fully, however, the heuristics we use in the analysis assist in guiding the diagnosis of the matter and its solution. This makes our study well-timed for contemporary Central Asia. The analyses assess current water management's chances to return to ancient principles of election-sanctioning and perspectives of private irrigation water rights.
    Keywords: Community/Rural/Urban Development, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy
    Date: 2022
  10. By: Sonnenberg, Nils
    Abstract: Die Preise für Gas und Strom auf den Spotmärkten haben im Monat August neue Rekordniveaus von durchschnittlich 240€/MWh bzw. 500€/MWh erreicht. Gegenüber den durchschnittlichen Preisen im Zeitraum 2005 bis 2020 von 20€/MWh bzw. 40€/MWh haben sie sich somit mehr als verzehnfacht. In der Spitze waren sogar noch deutlich höhere Preise zu beobachten. Schon vor dem Krieg in der Ukraine waren die Spotpreise für Gas und Strom im zweiten Halbjahr 2021 auf durchschnittlich 65€/MWh bzw. 150€/MWh gestiegen. Mit Ausbruch des Krieges haben sie nochmals deutlich zugelegt. Seit Mitte Juli 2022 haben die Preise abermals kräftig angezogen und sich zuletzt auf einem Niveau von über 200€/MWh bzw. 500€/MWh verfestigt.
    Keywords: Konjunktur,Konjunktur Deutschland,Deutschland
    Date: 2022
  11. By: Hövermann, Andreas
    Abstract: Der vorliegende Report analysiert anhand von Befragungsdaten des HBS-Erwerbspersonenpanels (N=6.234) vom April/Mai 2022 vor dem Hintergrund des Kriegs in der Ukraine und der sich zuspitzenden Energiekrise Ausprägungen rechtspopulistischer Einstellungen in Deutschland. Hierzu wird auf das Verschwörungsdenken und die Abwertung von geflüchteten Ukrainer*innen fokussiert. Die Analysen zeigen hohe Zusammenhänge zwischen den beiden Phänomenen und größere Zustimmungsraten unter Befragten jüngeren Alters sowie unter Befragten mit niedrigem Schulabschluss oder geringem Haushaltseinkommen; jedoch auch, dass die Phänomene keineswegs ausschließlich in diesen Populationen verortet werden können. Analysen früherer Einstellungen der Befragten ergeben, dass viele Zustimmende auch zuvor Verschwörungsdenken mit Bezug zur Pandemie teilten und gegen den Regierungskurs aufbegehrten. Finanzielle Sorgen und Belastungen sowie ein geringes Vertrauen in politische Institutionen erweisen sich schließlich als hochrelevante Erklärungsfaktoren, die in Kombination einen bedeutenden Wirkmechanismus in der aktuellen Krise darstellen.
    Keywords: Steuerpolitik,Staat/Politik,Wirtschaft
    Date: 2022
  12. By: Bhatta, Astha
    Abstract: Though declining in importance as Nepal undergoes structural transformation, agriculture still accounts for 23.9% of GDP and one in five people was employed in the sector with a larger share of women (33 percent) employed in agriculture than men (14.7 percent) (Labor survey of 2017-18). While not directly employed in agriculture, approximately 60 percent of the population has some engagement with the sector.
    Keywords: NEPAL, SOUTH ASIA, ASIA, food security, war, agriculture, agricultural sector, risk, agricultural products, fertilizers, women,
    Date: 2022
  13. By: Möllers, Judith; Herzfeld, Thomas; Batereanu, Lucia; Arapi-Gjini, Arjola
    Abstract: In the Republic of Moldova, agricultural policies aim to increase the compettveness of its farming sector, ensure the sustainable management of its natural resources and improve the living standards in rural areas. The state is an important player, allocatng fnancial resources for supportng agriculture and carrying out investment projects in this feld. A post-investment subsidy program incentvises agricultural producers to modernise their farms and producton. Farmers who have made investments in developing producton and post-harvest infrastructure could beneft from subsidies for these investments and fnancial resources allocated by the Agency for Interventon and Payments in Agriculture. However, it is not clear how benefcial these subsidies are for agricultural producers and whether the goals formulated by policies are met. A critcal challenge of policy assessment is the lack of regular surveys gathering farm-level data in Moldova. Another challenge is that the impact of some investments can only be quantfed with a delay of several years. This report results from an impact assessment study analysing the efectveness of existng policy measures. A survey of 800 farms was carried out to realise this assessment, which provided informaton about the actvity and investments made over several years. The team of researchers analysed the collected data to evaluate the policy measures covered by the survey. The study highlights essental facilitators and barriers to the farms' agricultural investment and business actvity. The impact assessment underlined that the investment subsidies had measurable positve efects on labour, farm producton and economic success. At the same tme, it indicated directons for improving and rebalancing policy instruments to increase the compettveness and sustainability of the agricultural sector of the Republic of Moldova.
    Keywords: Agribusiness, Agricultural and Food Policy, Agricultural Finance, Farm Management
    Date: 2022
  14. By: Alberini,Anna; Umapathi,Nithin
    Abstract: In April 2015, the Government of Ukraine abruptly raised the tariffs of natural gas to residential customers, which were previously well below the cost of acquiring gas and delivering it to households. The tariff increase—700 percent—caused considerable distress to the population and led the government to scale up its existing energy assistance program, the housing and utilities subsidy program. This paper examines the welfare effect of the program and potential redesigns of the program. Using several waves of Ukraine’s Household Budget Survey, the analysis finds that electricity, gas, and fuels account for a considerable share of household income. After the tariff hike, the average household that did not receive the housing and utilities subsidy spends 11 percent of its income on electricity, gas, and fuels, implying that it meets the definition of “fuel poor.” The average share for households that do receive the subsidy is 6–8 percent. The housing and utilities subsidy cuts the rate of fuel poverty in half. It also brings considerable consumer surplus gains of 6–7 percent of income. This comes at a high price tag for the government, as the budget for the housing and utilities subsidy is 1–2.5 percent of gross domestic product. Considerable savings would be achieved with only a small loss of consumer surplus if the housing and utilities subsidy was cut in half. Linking the subsidy solely to income would also attain considerable savings, but at a high loss of welfare. The housing and utilities subsidy could also be paired with social tariffs, or an energy efficiency subsidy, with major savings for the government.
    Keywords: Oil Refining&Gas Industry,Energy Demand,Energy and Mining,Energy and Environment,Inequality,Energy Policies&Economics,Municipal Management and Reform,Urban Governance and Management,Urban Housing,Urban Housing and Land Settlements
    Date: 2021–05–21
  15. By: Jannsen, Nils
    Abstract: Die Prognose für das Bruttoinlandsprodukts im Jahr 2022 haben wir in den vergangenen Quartalen ungewöhnlich deutlich angepasst. Während wir gegen Ende des vergangenen Jahres noch von einer kräftigen Erholung von der Pandemie mit einem Anstieg von 4 Prozent ausgegangenen waren, rechnen wir nun mit einer Zuwachsrate, die das Potenzialwachstum kaum übersteigt. Maßgeblich ist, dass die Inflation in diesem Jahr bei Weitem höher sein wird als zuvor erwartet und so die real verfügbaren Einkommen und in der Folge der Konsum der privaten Haushalte merklich niedriger ausfallen werden. Zudem belasten die Lieferengpässe die Produktion in diesem Jahr stärker als erwartet. Die Auswirkungen dieser Belastungsfaktoren haben sich durch den Krieg in der Ukraine noch einmal deutlich akzentuiert. Allerdings hatte sich schon vor Beginn des Krieges abgezeichnet, dass die Inflation höher ausfallen wird als zuvor erwartet und die Lieferketten wurden auch durch andere Störungen, wie Staus bei der Warenabwicklung an bedeutsamen Häfen, belastet. Der Pandemieverlauf hat dagegen nicht zur Abwärtsrevision der Prognose beigetragen. Insgesamt waren wir im Winter 2021 davon ausgegangen, dass die pandemiebedingten Belastungen - insbesondere mit Blick auf den Arbeitsausfall in der ersten Jahreshälfte gemessen - eher größer sein würden als sie wohl tatsächlich waren.
    Keywords: Konjunktur,Konjunktur Deutschland,Deutschland
    Date: 2022
  16. By: International Monetary Fund
    Abstract: After a solid recovery from the pandemic, Romania is now, like other EU countries, facing strong headwinds related to the war in Ukraine. Output reached pre-crisis levels in H1 2021 and growth in Q1 2022 was strong. But inflation has risen rapidly, and the external and fiscal positions are weak. The authorities are implementing a support package of energy price caps and subsidies for vulnerable groups.
    Date: 2022–09–26
  17. By: Djanibekov, Nodir; Herzfeld, Thomas
    Abstract: This report contributes to the project "Securing agriculture and rural development in times of COVID-19, pathways to regional responses for recovery, reforms, and resilience" by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO). The objectives of the report are threefold: 1) to assess the multiple impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on agriculture, food security, and rural community; 2) to review the policy responses taken by the governments of eight Central Asia and Caucasus (CAC) countries to mitigate the effects of the crisis, and 3) to provide contextual options to build the resilience of the agricultural sector during post-COVID-19 recovery and against future shocks.
    Keywords: Agricultural and Food Policy, Community/Rural/Urban Development, Food Security and Poverty
    Date: 2022
  18. By: International Monetary Fund
    Abstract: A national accounts statistics mission provided remote technical assistance in national accounts to the National Bureau of Statistics of Moldova (NBS) during January 17–28, 2022. The NBS has received extensive technical assistance from the IMF in recent years and has made good progress in improving the national accounts compilation. The GDP estimates are compiled according to the System of National Accounts, 2008. Recent national accounts technical assistance missions have assisted the NBS in improving the quarterly estimates of GDP, implementing chain-linked volume measures, and implementing the Statistical Classification of Economic Activities in the European Community (NACE rev.2), among other areas. The mission assisted in improving the annual GDP estimates for 2014 to 2020, to take account of revised population data and other additional source data. Estimates of GDP in current prices by production and by expenditure categories were reviewed and improved. Estimates of GDP in volume terms (at prices of the previous year) were compiled by production and expenditure categories. Both sets of GDP estimates were balanced at current prices and in volume terms. The mission recommended that, to improve the consistency and accuracy of the GDP estimates, the NBS develop a system to compile supply and use tables on a regular basis.
    Keywords: staff team of the International Monetary Fund; World Bank staff; report constitute; instrumentalities of the TA recipient; commodity flow method; GDP estimate; Consumption; Household consumption; Financial statements; Housing
    Date: 2022–09–23
  19. By: Alezra, Dylan; Senik, Claudia
    Abstract: Les Français se représentent leur société comme très inégalitaire mais, comme la plupart des Européens, s’y voient occuper une place de niveau intermédiaire – même si, aux côtés des Russes, des Italiens et des Japonais, ils sont plus nombreux que les autres à se voir sur les niveaux inférieurs de l’échelle sociale. Mais au-delà de cette position statique, comment perçoivent-ils leur mobilité sociale ? La France fait partie des pays dont les habitants sont les plus nombreux en moyenne à penser avoir progressé par rapport à la position sociale de leurs parents – comme l’Allemagne, la Finlande et Israël par exemple, et à l’opposé de la Russie et du Japon. Pour ce concerne l’évolution future de leur position relative dans la société, la majorité des Français anticipe une certaine stabilité. Ces perceptions dépendent aussi du revenu des individus : jusqu’aux deux quintiles les plus riches, tous anticipent une mobilité intra et inter-générationnelle ascendante. Ceux qui voient la société comme un sapin ou une toupie (peu de pauvres) sont beaucoup plus optimistes quant à leur propre trajectoire. Ceux qui l’imaginent comme une pyramide (inégalitaire) perçoivent une mobilité intergénérationnelle- mais pas intragénérationnelle- ascendante. Enfin, en ce qui concerne le lien avec le positionnement politique, c’est à droite que la mobilité ascendante est perçue comme la plus forte. Au total, les Français se montrent assez optimistes quant à leur trajectoire de mobilité sociale, surtout par rapport à leurs parents, et l’image générale que forme leurs perceptions est celle d’une croyance largement partagée en un mécanisme de convergence vers la moyenne.
    Keywords: France, Mobilité sociale
    Date: 2022–07

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