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on Confederation of Independent States |
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Issue of 2022‒10‒31
35 papers chosen by |
| By: | Cevat Giray Aksoy; Andreas Baur; Lisandra Flach; Beata Javorcik |
| Abstract: | Since the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic, the configuration of international supply chains has received increased public attention. Pandemic-related disruptions in production and transportation have led to questions about the reliability of international production networks. Moreover, the war in Ukraine and the associated sanctions against Russia have cast a new light on the geopolitical significance of economic interdependencies with autocratic regimes. How do firms react to these developments, and have they already adjusted their sourcing strategies? In this policy brief, we present the results from a representative survey of more than 4,000 firms in Germany, providing insights into how companies have responded to supply chain disruptions and which priorities they are setting for the future. |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:econpb:_45&r= |
| By: | Georg Zachmann; Guntram B. Wolff; Agata Łoskot-Strachota; Simone Tagliapietra; Axel Ockenfels; Ricardo Hausmann; Ulrich Schetter |
| Abstract: | The most efficient way for Europe to sanction Russian energy would not be an embargo, but the introduction of an import tariff that can be used flexib |
| Date: | 2022–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bre:wpaper:48117&r= |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | Moldova’s economy is projected to stagnate in 2022 amid spillovers from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The war in Ukraine continues to weigh heavily on Moldova, although some initial pressures have subsided. Bank deposit net withdrawals came to an end and are now steadily being replenished. The leu depreciated by about 8 percent so far while pressures on foreign reserves have eased. About 550,000 refugees fleeing the war (representing more than 20 percent of the Moldovan population) have transited through Moldova, with about a fifth remaining in the country. Driven by rising food and energy prices, inflation accelerated further above the target band. |
| Date: | 2022–09–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2022/320&r= |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Public Sector Development - Public Sector Expenditure Policy Agriculture - Agricultural Sector Economics Agriculture - Food Security International Economics and Trade - Export Competitiveness |
| Date: | 2020–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:35909&r= |
| By: | ITO Koji |
| Abstract: | Immediately after Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, the G7, the EU, and others imposed economic sanctions, including trade measures, against Russia. This paper used the OECD "Inter Country Input-Output Table" (ICIO) to analyze the impact of the trade sanctions against Russia on the production activities of each country. If sanctions and countermeasures reduce trade between OECD member countries and Russia by 20%, Russian production will fall by 4.76%, mainly in the mining and petroleum and coal product manufacturing industries. This figure is close to the rate of decline in Russia's GDP during the chaotic period of the late 1990s, meaning that it will have a certain impact. However, based on the actual trade trends after the sanction, we analyzed the case where only OECD countries cut their exports to Russia. In this case, even if exports decreased by 20%, Russia's production value would only decrease by 0.02%. Based on the analysis in this paper, the trade sanctions seem to be largely ineffective in the current situation where Europe, Japan and other countries are accepting imports from Russia. |
| Date: | 2022–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:rpdpjp:22027&r= |
| By: | Arndt, Channing; Diao, Xinshen; Dorosh, Paul A.; Pauw, Karl; Thurlow, James |
| Abstract: | Global food, fuel, and fertilizer prices have risen rapidly in recent months, driven in large part by the fallout from the ongoing war in Ukraine and the sanctions imposed on Russia. Other factors, such as export bans, have also contributed to rising prices. Palm oil and wheat prices increased by 56 and 100 percent in real terms, respectively, between June 2021 and April 2022, with most of the increase occurring since February (Figure 1). Wide variation exists across products, with real maize prices increasing by only 11 percent and rice prices declining by 13 percent. The price of crude oil and natural gas has also risen substantially, while the weighted average price of fertilizer has doubled. With these changes in global prices, many developing countries and their development partners are concerned about the implications for economic stability, food security, and poverty. |
| Keywords: | PHILIPPINES, SOUTH EAST ASIA, ASIA, Ukraine, poverty, food security, armed conflicts, crises, prices, shock, agrifood systems, equality, diet, commodities, fertilizers |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:gccbrf:20&r= |
| By: | Christopher J. Neely |
| Abstract: | This article analyzes financial market reactions to the Russia-Ukraine war with a focus on the opening weeks. Markets did not completely anticipate the war and asset price reactions strengthened from the first week—when there were hopes for a quick resolution—to the second week, when prices generally peaked and began to partially revert to pre-war values. Exposure to commodity trade and trade with Russia-Ukraine determined market perceptions of the riskiness of equity and foreign exchange assets. Credit default swap prices on sovereign debt and breakeven inflation rates indicate that markets saw the war as a measurable fiscal risk even for non-belligerents. |
| Keywords: | Russia; Ukraine; commodity price; War; oil; capital controls; exchange controls; sanctions; Exchange rate; equity |
| JEL: | Q02 F51 G15 G32 H56 |
| Date: | 2022–09–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedlwp:94820&r= |
| By: | Deininger,Klaus W.; Ali,Daniel Ayalew; Kussul,Nataliia; Shelestov,Andrii Yu; Lemoine,Guido; Yailimova,Hanna |
| Abstract: | This paper uses a 4-year panel (2019–2022) of 10,125 village councils in Ukraine toestimate direct and indirect effects of the war started by Russia on area and expected yield of winter crops. Satelliteimagery is used to provide information on direct damage to agricultural fields; classify crop cover using machinelearning; and compute the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) for winter cereal fields as a proxy for yield.Without conflict, winter crop area would have been 9.14 rather than 8.38 mn. ha, a 0.75 mn. ha reduction, 86% ofwhich is due to economy-wide effects. The estimated conflict-induced drop in NDVI for winter cereal, which isparticularly pronounced for small farms, translates into a 15% yield reduction or an output loss of 4.2 million tons.Taking area and yield reduction together suggests a war-induced loss of winter crop output of 20% if the currentwinter crop can be harvested fully. |
| Date: | 2022–07–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10123&r= |
| By: | Maria Gunko (Institute of Geography of RAS - RAS - Russian Academy of Sciences [Moscow], University of Oxford [Oxford]); Benoit Conti (LVMT - Laboratoire Ville, Mobilité, Transport - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - Université Gustave Eiffel); Alexander Sheludkov (Institute of Geography of RAS - RAS - Russian Academy of Sciences [Moscow]); Sophie Baudet-Michel (GC (UMR_8504) - Géographie-cités - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UPCité - Université Paris Cité); Anastasia Novkunskaya (European University at Saint Petersburg) |
| Abstract: | Since the 1990s, many countries have implemented healthcare reforms underlined by New Public Management principles and technological transformations. Although studies have examined these reforms from different viewpoints, the spatial implications of healthcare reforms have received limited attention. Scholarship focused predominantly on regional variations of healthcare provision overlooking the sharp contrasts between cities where most healthcare facilities are de facto located. Addressing this research gap, we investigate the long-term dynamics of healthcare provision on the urban level, tracing the differences (if any) between cities of different sizes and administrative statuses. The study adopts a comparative approach. We draw our data from two countries: France and Russia (mainland France and European Russia). Findings indicate that, despite some variations, healthcare reforms in both countries follow similar paths, resulting in fewer hospital beds that have been partially replaced by places in day hospitals. At the same time, we also observe diverging country-specific trends in terms of redistribution of healthcare provision. In France, some cities completely lost their hospital equipment but those cities that remained equipped tend to a uniform distribution. In European Russia, on the contrary, all cities remain equipped but there is a drastic polarization depending on size and administrative status. |
| Keywords: | Healthcare,healthcare reforms,new public management,neoliberalism,France,Russia |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03771480&r= |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | International Economics and Trade - Export Competitiveness International Economics and Trade - Foreign Direct Investment International Economics and Trade - International Trade and Trade Rules International Economics and Trade - Trade Finance and Investment International Economics and Trade - Trade Policy International Economics and Trade - Trade and Services |
| Date: | 2020–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:34994&r= |
| By: | Uhl, Kerstin Marit |
| Keywords: | Crop Production/Industries, Demand and Price Analysis, Food Security and Poverty, International Relations/Trade |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iamost:327295&r= |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Health, Nutrition and Population - Disease Control & Prevention International Economics and Trade - Trade Liberalization Macroeconomics and Economic Growth - Business Cycles and Stabilization Policies Macroeconomics and Economic Growth - Economic Growth Macroeconomics and Economic Growth - Fiscal & Monetary Policy Poverty Reduction - Inequality Social Protections and Labor - Employment and Unemployment |
| Date: | 2020–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:34950&r= |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | The economy bounced back strongly from the first wave of Covid-19 pandemic, and the recovery is well entrenched in 2022. However, risks to the outlook are considerable, given the uncertainty over spillovers from the war in Ukraine, the intensity of the pandemic globally, and in Europe, in particular, and supply bottlenecks. Given the strong fundamentals, Norway is relatively shielded and there are both upside (higher energy prices and export volumes) and downside risks (lower demand from Europe for non-energy exports). The forecast is especially sensitive to where energy prices settle, whether energy supply to Europe will be disrupted, and Norway’s capacity to increase gas supplies to Europe. |
| Keywords: | liability positions vis-à-vis nonresident; money market rate; inflation pressure; normalising economy; core inflation; Inflation; Mortgages; Climate change; Global; Europe |
| Date: | 2022–09–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2022/304&r= |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | Papua New Guinea (PNG)’s economy is weathering the pandemic well, despite many challenges. Real GDP in 2022 is projected to exceed its 2019 level, and the medium-term outlook is positive, supported by investment in (and revenues from) the resource sector. The war in Ukraine is impacting PNG through higher commodity prices and higher inflation, with the former leading to a stronger balance of payments and higher fiscal revenues, since PNG is a large commodity producer. Risks remain skewed to the downside and include a worsening health situation given the low vaccination rate, volatility in commodity prices, and political instability. |
| Date: | 2022–09–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2022/305&r= |
| By: | Farah Yacoub,Juan Pablo |
| Abstract: | This paper provides an overview of the Russian Federation’s default history, the legalcharacteristics of the bonds, and potential issues for litigation should a default materialize. The paper’s mainargument is that although it is not impenetrable, this Eurobond stock is more protective of the debtor than that ofthe usual emerging market country. It achieves this through preservation of all the defenses available under current lawand the presence of broad language in key provisions. For instance, clauses providing for payment in a different currency if “reasons beyond its control” stop the debtorfrom paying in the denomination currency have drawn attention. The paper analyzes this and othercharacteristics, providing initial assessments on how the issues could play out. While the bonds’ characteristicscould slow progress toward obtaining judgments when compared to other sovereign debts, they do not prevent them.Collecting on the judgments would be, as usual, the harder part. Ultimately, litigation over these debts could last along time; other creditor versus foreign sovereign episodes involving less debtor-friendly instruments have lasted 15years, and resolution and recovery would be highly contingent on political factors. Finally, the paper providesnon-lawyers a general roadmap of debt litigation against foreign sovereigns in the United States and the United Kingdom. |
| Date: | 2022–04–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10030&r= |
| By: | Xianglong Liu; Jason Nassios; James Giesecke |
| Abstract: | Recent surges in global crude oil prices, caused by supply disruptions from Russia's invasion of Ukraine and associated sanctions, have increased the cost of living globally. In response, in the 2022/23 Australian Federal budget, the former Coalition government announced a halving of Australia's fuel excise from 44 cents per litre to 22 cents per litre for six months. This paper explores the impact of an oil supply shock on the Australian economy, and the effectiveness of a fuel excise reduction as a policy response. We adopt a single-country dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) framework. Because Australia is a net oil-importing economy, ceteris paribus, the rise in world oil prices puts downward pressure on the terms of trade and household consumption. The impact at the macro level on real GDP is damped by a rise in net exports and world LNG prices, a key Australian export. Our analysis unpacks the role played by the linkage between world oil and LNG prices. While this linkage attenuates the macroeconomic effects of an oil price rise in Australia, its capacity to mitigate the economic damage is muted because of the LNG sector's low labour intensity, high foreign ownership, and the associated rise in domestic gas prices, which hurt domestic gas users. We find a 50 percent reduction in fuel excise can help damp the overall fall in real GDP and employment, at the expense of larger budget deficits. Rather than strengthening calls for a cut in fuel tax excise rates, we show that higher oil prices compromise calls for its reduction from an allocative efficiency perspective, because it is a specific tax. Finally, we study an alternative policy response to higher world oil prices in Australia: adoption of a UK-style energy profits levy on LNG producers. We find that such a policy would promote household consumption without compromising the federal budget. |
| Keywords: | taxation policy, CGE modelling, dynamics, oil prices |
| JEL: | C68 E62 H25 Q43 |
| Date: | 2022–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cop:wpaper:g-336&r= |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | After successfully weathering the pandemic in 2020, Brunei was hit by new waves of COVID-19, with case numbers going up significantly and new lockdown measures imposed in H2 2021. Reduced activities in mining and LNG manufacturing, combined with the negative impact of new pandemic variants on domestic services, led to a slowdown in the economy. Real GDP contracted by 1.6 percent in 2021. For 2022, growth is projected to rebound to 1.2 percent, on the back of easing of mobility constraints and a positive terms of trade shock due to surges in O&G prices. Inflation, while remaining relatively low at 2.2 percent at end 2021, has increased in 2022 and pressures are expected to remain elevated in the short term, owing to supply disruptions and higher food and fuel prices. The economy continues to diversify, with double-digit growth of the food/agriculture sector and a new fertilizer sector commencing production. The risks to the outlook are tilted to the downside, due to potential new COVID-19 variants, increased global uncertainty associated with an escalation of the war in Ukraine, monetary tightening from the US and a larger-than-expected growth slowdown in China. On the upside, higher energy prices would further improve the terms of trade and restore fiscal positions in the short term, while partially contributing to build the buffers needed to ensure stronger intergenerational equity. Strong policy actions are needed to boost medium-term growth and foster resilience. |
| Date: | 2022–09–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2022/302&r= |
| By: | Alona Shmygel (National Bank of Ukraine) |
| Abstract: | In this article, we developed a reliable method to detect house price bubbles using data for the largest Ukrainian cities. Further, we identified the thresholds, the breach of which is signaling that house price growth may be problematic as a bubble may be forming. In this paper, house price bubbles are detected with the help of two general approaches: ratio calculation and regression analysis. These general approaches are subdivided into two each. We calculated the Price-to-Rent and Price-to-Income ratios that can identify a possible over- or undervaluation of house prices for Ukrainian cities under the scope of this investigation. Then, we performed the regression analysis by building individual multifactor models for different cities and by running a pooled OLS regression for the panel data. According to the results, the only pronounced and prolonged period of house price bubbles is the one that coincides in time with the Global Financial Crisis – from late 2005 to early 2009. The bubble signals, produced by these methods are, on average, simultaneous and are in accordance with economic sense. A tool for measuring fundamental house prices and an indicator of bubble on housing markets will be used to monitor the systemic risks stemming from the real estate market. Thus, it will help the National Bank of Ukraine maintain financial stability. |
| Keywords: | House price bubbles, Fundamental house prices, Mortgage lending, Systemic risk, Regression analysis |
| JEL: | C31 C33 E30 G21 |
| Date: | 2022–10–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gii:giihei:heidwp22-2022&r= |
| By: | Diaz-Bonilla, Eugenio; Flores, Luis; Piñeiro, Valeria; Centurion, Miriam |
| Abstract: | Two previous reports (Díaz Bonilla, Laborde and Piñeiro, 2021, and Diaz-Bonilla, Flores, Paz, Piñeiro, and Zandstra, 2021) covered the evolution and impacts of the pandemic on food systems in Honduras until the time of their writings (which together cover from the start of the pandemic in early 2020 until October 2021). This third report concludes the assessment of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on food systems in Honduras, recapitulating the previous ones and updating the analysis until the end of May 2022. This country and its food systems, however, have been also affected by other events since the pandemic started in early 2020, such as the tropical storms Eta and Iota in November 2020. Subsequently, in 2021 the strong world economic rebound due to expansionary fiscal and monetary policies in the USA and other countries, generated strains on value chains, leading to increases in transportation costs and the prices of food, energy and fertilizers. In the case of agricultural products, those increases were compounded by adverse climate events in some important producing areas, particularly in South America. Finally, the Russian-Ukraine Conflict (RUC) on February 24, 2022, has added further pressures on prices of energy, fertilizers, and some food products (such as wheat and vegetable oils). Therefore, the specific impact of the pandemic on food systems in Honduras has been interacting with the other developments mentioned. From the point of view of policymakers, they need to respond to the overall impact of the conditions affecting the population, whatever the converging main causes may be. Therefore, this final report, while emphasizing those aspects linked to the pandemic will also discuss the overall conditions in Honduras, affected by those many factors. This report is structured as follows. First, it summarizes the main policy responses, costs, and financing related to the COVID-19 shock. Second, it brings up to date the evolution of the pandemic, using different indicators. Third, it updates the evolution of key economic and nutritional variables. Fourth, there is a brief discussion of the implications of RUC for food systems. Fifth, the report continues with a more specific analysis of the evolution of some food value chains that are central to food consumption in Honduras. The next section discusses policy considerations for health, poverty and nutrition, and food value chains, in light of the updated analysis. A final section concludes. |
| Keywords: | HONDURAS; CENTRAL AMERICA; LATIN AMERICA; Coronavirus; coronavirus disease; Coronavirinae; COVID-19; policies; health; social protection; employment; nutrition; value chains; governance; pandemics; food security; social safety nets; food value chains |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:lacwps:29&r= |
| By: | Diaz-Bonilla, Eugenio; Flores, Luis; Piñeiro, Valeria; Centurion, Miriam |
| Abstract: | Two previous reports (Díaz Bonilla, Laborde and Piñeiro, 2021, and Diaz-Bonilla, Flores, Paz, Piñeiro, and Zandstra, 2021) covered the evolution and impacts of the pandemic on food systems in Guatemala until the time of their writing (which together covered from the start of the pandemic in early 2020 until about October 2021. This third report concludes the analysis of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on food systems in Guatemala. It summarizes the previous reports and updates the analysis until the end of May 2022. However, this country and its food systems have also been affected by other events since the pandemic started in early 2020. Between 3 and 17 November 2020, tropical storms Eta and Iota hit Guatemalan territory with heavy rains that led to floods and mud landslides, affecting 16 of the country's 22 departments. Later, in 2021 the strong world economic rebound due to expansionary fiscal and monetary policies in the USA and many other developed and developing countries combined with persistent strains on value chains due to COVID19 to lead to increases in transportation costs and the prices of food, energy, and fertilizers. In the case of agricultural products, those increases were com-pounded by adverse climate events in some important producers, particularly in South America. Finally, the Russian-Ukraine Conflict (RUC) on February 24, 2022, has added further pressures on the prices of energy, fertilizers and food products including wheat and vegetable oils. Therefore, the pandemic's specific impact on Guatemala's food systems has been interacting with the other developments mentioned, making it very difficult to differentiate among them. Policymakers, how-ever, need to respond to the overall impact of the conditions affecting the population, whatever the leading causes may be. Therefore, this final report, while emphasizing those aspects linked to the pan-demic, will discuss the conditions in Guatemala considering those other factors. This report is structured as follows. First, it summarizes the main policy responses, costs, and financing related to the COVID-19 shock. Second, it brings up to date the evolution of the pandemic, using differ-ent indicators. Third, it updates the evolution of key economic and nutritional variables. Fourth, there is a brief discussion of the implications of RUC for food systems.. Fifth, the report continues with a more specific analysis of the evolution of some food value chains that are central for food consumption in Guatemala. The next section discusses policy considerations for health, poverty and nutrition, and food value chains, based on the updated analysis of the previous sections, including cost and financial as-pects. A final section concludes. |
| Keywords: | GUATEMALA; LATIN AMERICA; CENTRAL AMERICA; NORTH AMERICA; Coronavirus; COVID-19; coronavirus disease 2019; food systems; policy; monetary policies; agricultural value chains; pandemics; health; poverty; nutrition |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:lacwps:28&r= |
| By: | Sümeyra Atmaca (University of Ghent); Riccardo Camboni (University of Padova); Elena Podkolzina (HSE-NRU); Koen Schoors (University of Ghent); Paola Valbonesi (University of Padova) |
| Abstract: | We use a large dataset of Russian public procurement auctions for standard gasoline over the period 2011-2013, to investigate how buyers set the reserve price - i.e. the buyer’s announced maximum willingness to pay for the good awarded. We provide empirical evidence that repeated past contracts between a buyer and a supplier affect the reserve price set by this buyer in future auctions where the same supplier takes part and wins. Specifically, we find that in these auctions the reserve price, the level of competition, and the winning unit price are lower than in the average auction in the dataset. We conjecture that, in setting the reserve price for a new auction, public buyers exploit information gained about the winners of previous auctions. This intuition is supported by empirically studying the reserve price in a dynamic framework, which allows buyers to take into account information from previous procurement transactions with given suppliers. Finally, we show that our empirical results are in line with a simple theoretical setting in which the buyer collects information about one supplier’s costs and exploits this in setting the reserve price in future auctions. |
| Keywords: | Publicprocurement, First-priceauction, Buyer-supplier repeated interactions, Reserve price |
| JEL: | D44 H57 |
| Date: | 2022–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pad:wpaper:0289&r= |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Public Sector Development - State Owned Enterprise Reform Public Sector Development - Public Financial Management |
| Date: | 2020–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:35011&r= |
| By: | Raffelhüschen, Bernd; Brinkschmidt, Teresa; Kohlstruck, Tobias; Seuffert, Stefan; Wimmesberger, Florian |
| Abstract: | Während die wirtschaftlichen Folgen der Corona-Pandemie noch nicht völlig ausgestanden sind, hat die wirtschaftliche Unsicherheit aufgrund des russischen Angriffskriegs gegen die Ukraine dramatisch zugenommen. Zugleich steigt die Inflation aufgrund eines explosiven Gemischs aus lockerer Geldpolitik und krisenbedingten Angebotsverknappungen, insbesondere bei Energie, auf fast zweistellige Werte. Für die öffentlichen Haushalte ergeben sich dadurch erhebliche Belastungen. Zusätzlich schreitet der doppelte Alterungsprozess der Bevölkerung weiter voran und setzt vor allem die sozialen Sicherungssysteme finanziell unter Druck. Vor diesem Hintergrund beleuchten die Stiftung Marktwirtschaft und das Forschungszentrum Generationenverträge der Universität Freiburg die langfristigen Perspektiven der öffentlichen Finanzen. Gemäß dem Update 2022 der Generationenbilanz beläuft sich die staatliche Gesamtverschuldung im Sinne der Nachhaltigkeitslücke aus expliziten und impliziten Schulden auf 14,1 Billionen Euro oder 395,4 Prozent des BIP. Trotz eines leichten Rückgangs im Vergleich zum Vorjahr um 43,8 Prozent des BIP - u.a. aufgrund einer optimistischen Steuerschätzung - bewegt sich die deutsche Staatsverschuldung weiterhin auf einem sehr hohen Niveau. Der Löwenanteil mit 324,5 Prozent des BIP entfällt auf die impliziten, heute noch nicht direkt sichtbaren Schulden. Sie spiegeln im Wesentlichen die bereits erworbenen und bei Fortführung des Status quo noch entstehenden, aber durch das heutige Steuer- und Abgabenniveau nicht gedeckten Ansprüche heutiger und zukünftig lebender Generationen gegenüber dem Staat wider. Die expliziten, heute schon sichtbaren Schulden, liegen demgegenüber "nur" bei 71 Prozent des BIP und machen damit nicht einmal ein Fünftel der Nachhaltigkeitslücke aus. Mit Schuldentransparenz hat das kaum etwas zu tun. Um das langfristige Missverhältnis zwischen öffentlichen Ausgaben und Einnahmen zu beseitigen, müssten theoretisch entweder alle Staatseinnahmen um 17,2 Prozent erhöht oder die Ausgaben um 13,8 Prozent gesenkt werden. Anstatt die dringend notwendige Konsolidierung der Staatsfinanzen zumindest perspektivisch in Angriff zu nehmen, verzettelt sich die Politik jedoch nach wie vor in einer intergenerativ ungerechten Bevorzugung der heutigen Rentnergeneration. Dies zeigen die Analysen im Rahmen des diesjährigen Schwerpunktthemas "Rentenanpassungen". |
| Keywords: | Generationenbilanz,Öffentliche Finanzen,Rente / Pensionen,Staatsschulden |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:smwarg:165&r= |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | The COVID-19 pandemic exacerbated long-standing socio-economic vulnerabilities, which were further compounded by persistent energy shortages, flood-related damages at end-2021, and a sharp increase in global fuel and food prices caused by the war in Ukraine. These have put pressure on domestic inflation, aggravated electricity shortages, and disrupted business activities, with negative implications for growth in 2022. Protracted negotiations with labor unions resulted in additional wage supplements for the lowest paid category of civil servants in June 2022. Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in September 2022. |
| Date: | 2022–09–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2022/306&r= |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Health, Nutrition and Population - Disease Control & Prevention Macroeconomics and Economic Growth - Business Cycles and Stabilization Policies Macroeconomics and Economic Growth - Economic Growth Macroeconomics and Economic Growth - Fiscal & Monetary Policy Poverty Reduction - Employment and Shared Growth Private Sector Development - Private Sector Economics |
| Date: | 2020–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:34977&r= |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Public Sector Development - State Owned Enterprise Reform Public Sector Development - Public Financial Management Private Sector Development - Corporate Governance |
| Date: | 2021–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:35581&r= |
| By: | Ana Maria Munoz Boudet; Lourdes Rodriguez Chamussy; Christina Chiarella; Isil Oral Savonitto |
| Keywords: | Education - Tertiary Education Gender - Gender and Education Poverty Reduction - Inequality Social Protections and Labor - Labor Markets |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:35463&r= |
| By: | Iimi,Atsushi |
| Abstract: | Large-scale transport infrastructure investment can facilitate structural transformation bychanging firm behavior. Although its impact is evident over the long term, an important empirical challenge is potentialendogeneity of infrastructure placement. By using the dynamic panel data regression, the paper examines theimpacts of massive road corridor investment under the Nurly Zhol program in Kazakhstan. The paper takes advantage ofdetailed micro shipping data to capture historical changes in transport connectivity over the past 10 years. While theaverage travel speed has slightly increased, transport costs have been nearly halved. The estimated translog costfunctions indicate that local market accessibility is the most important factor to boost firm productivity. Theelasticity was 0.24 in absolute terms. Inventory is found to be a major cost factor for firms. It is found that a10-percent improvement in accessibility to large cities, such as Astana and Almaty, could allow firms to reduce theirinventory by 8.7 percent. The market accessibility is found to foster firm agglomerations, but agglomeration economiesdo not seem to translate into higher firm productivity. This is possibly because the Kazakh economy still lacks effectiveforward or backward linkages across industries. |
| Date: | 2022–09–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10196&r= |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Environment - Adaptation to Climate Change Environment - Climate Change Impacts Environment - Coastal and Marine Environment Environment - Environmental Disasters & Degradation Environment - Forests and Forestry |
| Date: | 2021–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:35179&r= |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Environment - Adaptation to Climate Change Environment - Air Quality & Clean Air Environment - Ecosystems and Natural Habitats Environment - Environmental Disasters & Degradation Environment - Environmental Economics & Policies Environment - Environmental Protection Environment - Forests and Forestry Environment - Pollution Management & Control Environment - Sustainable Land Management Environment - Water Resources Management |
| Date: | 2020–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:34862&r= |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Public Sector Development - Public Sector Expenditure Policy Education - Education Finance Health, Nutrition and Population - Health Economics & Finance Social Protections and Labor - Pensions & Retirement Systems |
| Date: | 2021–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:35790&r= |
| By: | Gourlay,Sydney; Maggio,Giuseppe; Safyan,Anahit; Zezza,Alberto |
| Abstract: | Evidence indicates that land rights are strongly associated with several indicators ofwell-being and development outcomes, including access to credit, resilience to shocks, productivity, and bargainingpower. Accurately capturing gender differences in land rights is thus critical for development policy, promptingthe need to shift from household-level land rights data collection to collecting more and better individual-leveldata on land rights. The importance of individual land rights has been recognized in the Sustainable DevelopmentGoals (SDG) agenda, with the inclusion of two key indicators on land rights—SDG indicators 1.4.2 and 5.a.1. Althoughclear guidance exists for computing and monitoring these, the choice of data collection methods may influence theresulting indicators and the understanding of the underlying land rights. Specifically, research has shown that the useof proxy respondents in the collection of data on assets, including land, results in a biased understanding of men’sand women’s holdings vis-à-vis self-reporting. This paper uses data from a methodological experiment in Armenia toassess the implications of survey design—namely, respondent strategy and the level of disaggregation of land data—on themeasurement of individual land rights and SDG indicator monitoring. The findings suggest that in the context ofArmenia, the measurement of SDG 5.a.1 and 1.4.2 (a) is robust to respondent approach and data disaggregation level,driven largely by the high rates of documentation. Meanwhile, land rights that are less objective, such as theright to bequeath and perception of tenure security, are sensitive to these survey design choices. |
| Date: | 2022–08–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10140&r= |
| By: | Adanna Chukwuma; Srinivas Gurazada; Manoj Jain; Saro Tsaturyan; Makich Khcheyan |
| Keywords: | Public Sector Development - Public Financial Management Public Sector Development - Public Sector Expenditure Policy Health, Nutrition and Population - Health Economics & Finance Health, Nutrition and Population - Health Service Management and Delivery |
| Date: | 2020–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:34747&r= |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Agriculture - Crops & Crop Management Systems Environment - Environmental Disasters & Degradation Environment - Environmental Economics & Policies Environment - Natural Disasters Environment - Sustainable Land Management |
| Date: | 2020–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:34986&r= |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Health, Nutrition and Population - Health Service Management and Delivery Health, Nutrition and Population - Health Systems Development & Reform Industry - Health Care Services Industry |
| Date: | 2020–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:35097&r= |