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on Confederation of Independent States |
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Issue of 2022‒10‒24
24 papers chosen by |
| By: | Tatiana Maleva (Russian Academy of National Economy and Public Administration under the President of the Russian Federation (RANEPA) - Moscow Campus); Elena Grishina (Russian Academy of National Economy and Public Administration under the President of the Russian Federation (RANEPA) - Institute of Social Analysis and Forecasting); Victor Lyashok (Russian Academy of National Economy and Public Administration under the President of the Russian Federation (RANEPA) - Institute of Social Analysis and Forecasting); Aleksandra Polyakova (Russian Academy of National Economy and Public Administration under the President of the Russian Federation (RANEPA) - Institute of Social Analysis and Forecasting); Aleksandra Ya. Burdyak (Russian Academy of National Economy and Public Administration under the President of the Russian Federation (RANEPA) - Institute of Social Analysis and Forecasting) |
| Date: | 2022–09–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03773208&r= |
| By: | Aleksandra Posarac; Elena Andreeva; Dmitry Bychkov; Aleksandr Spivak; Olesya Feoktistova; Maria Nagernyak |
| Keywords: | Poverty Reduction - Access of Poor to Social Services Social Protections and Labor - Social Protections & Assistance Public Sector Development - Public Sector Expenditure Policy |
| Date: | 2021–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:35622&r= |
| By: | Jacques Fontanel (CESICE - Centre d'études sur la sécurité internationale et les coopérations européennes - UPMF - Université Pierre Mendès France - Grenoble 2 - IEPG - Sciences Po Grenoble - Institut d'études politiques de Grenoble) |
| Abstract: | Conçues comme une alternative aux monnaies encadrées par des banques centrales et aux marchés traditionnels, les cryptomonnaies s'invitent désormais dans les stratégies d'entreprises, les réseaux bancaires et les pouvoirs régaliens des Etats. Les cryptomonnaies se sont développées lors de la crise financière mondiale de 2008-9 et la méfiance généralisée à l'encontre de la monnaie fiduciaire des banques centrales. Elles constituent un instrument puissant de spéculation, elles sont très actives dans les rançongiciels, elles sont indépendantes de l'establishment financier. Cependant, les cryptomonnaies posent de nombreux problèmes concernant notamment son utilisation excessive par le banditisme, en faveur du financement du terrorisme ou du blanchiment de l'argent. Leur action a été redoutée comme un moyen pour un pays d'échapper aux sanctions internationales. Dans le cadre de la guerre en Ukraine, la Russie, qui hésite beaucoup sur le statut à conférer aux cryptomonnaies, n'est pas en mesure de l'utiliser avec efficience pour éviter les sanctions internationales. |
| Abstract: | Conceived as an alternative to currencies framed by central banks and traditional markets, crypto-currencies are now invading corporate strategies, banking networks and the regalian powers of states. Crypto-currencies developed during the global financial crisis of 2008-9 and the widespread distrust of central bank fiat money. They are a powerful instrument of speculation, they are very active in ransomware, they are independent of the financial establishment. However, crypto-currencies pose many problems, including its excessive use by banditry, in favor of terrorist financing or money laundering. Their action has been feared as a way for a country to escape international sanctions. In the context of the war in Ukraine, Russia, which is very hesitant about the status to be given to cryptocurrencies, is not able to use it efficiently to avoid international sanctions. |
| Keywords: | economic warfare,financial speculation,crime,Cryptocurrency,Cryptomonnaie,bitcoin,guerre économique,spéculation financière,criminalité |
| Date: | 2022–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03774006&r= |
| By: | Дускалиева Сауле // Duskaliyeva Saule (National Bank of Kazakhstan); Галимова Агия // Galimova Agiya (National Bank of Kazakhstan); Жанабеков Сарсен // Zhanabekov Sarsen |
| Abstract: | Одним из необходимых условий для низкой инфляции является высоко развитая конкурентная среда. В данной работе авторы попытались, основываясь на соответствующем опыте зарубежных исследований, проанализировать наличие связи между конкурентной средой и ценообразованием в Казахстане. Главным прокси-показателем конкуренции выступала наценка (mark-up), ценообразование характеризовалось динамикой среднегодового ИПЦ. Исследование включало агрегированный и отраслевой уровень, проводилось на основе статистических данных, публично размещаемых на сайте Бюро национальной статистики, с использованием Excel и эконометрического пакета анализа Eviews 12. |
| Keywords: | конкуренция, индекс Лернера, методология Roeger, Lerner index, Roeger methodology |
| JEL: | C32 C43 C51 C82 E24 E31 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aob:wpaper:33&r= |
| By: | World Bank Group |
| Keywords: | Energy - Energy Demand Health, Nutrition and Population - Disease Control & Prevention Macroeconomics and Economic Growth - Business Cycles and Stabilization Policies Macroeconomics and Economic Growth - Economic Growth Macroeconomics and Economic Growth - Economic Policy, Institutions and Governance Macroeconomics and Economic Growth - Fiscal & Monetary Policy Poverty Reduction - Employment and Shared Growth Social Protections and Labor - Labor Markets Social Protections and Labor - Safety Nets and Transfers |
| Date: | 2021–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:35653&r= |
| By: | Timur Natkhov; William Pyle |
| Abstract: | Decades of investment decisions by central planners left communist societies with structures of production ill-prepared for competitive markets. Their vulnerability to liberalization, however, varied across space. Similar to the effects identified in the “China shock” literature, we hypothesize that post-market-shock outcomes will reflect pre-market-shock structures of production. Tracking voting outcomes at the district level in Russia’s presidential elections, we document asymmetric reactions to the liberalization of markets in 1992. Electoral support for the pro-market incumbent declined most in areas with structural inheritances that made them most vulnerable to reforms. This finding sheds new light on an old debate about the importance of “initial conditions” (as opposed to policies) to the trajectories of post-communist societies. |
| Keywords: | industrial structure, transition economy, voting, Russia |
| JEL: | N33 N53 I15 O15 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9929&r= |
| By: | Elinder, Mikael (Department of Economics, Uppsala University); Erixson, Oscar (Department of Economics, Uppsala University); Hammar, Olle (Research Institute of Industrial Economics (IFN)) |
| Abstract: | We present estimates of the number of refugees expected to flee Ukraine and to which countries they are expected to migrate based on migration preferences data from the Gallup World Poll. This is important in terms of both immediate refugee assistance efforts and long-term integration policies. Our key finding is that as many as twelve million people may want to leave Ukraine permanently and that refugee policies in potential destination countries are likely to have a substantial impact on the distribution of Ukrainian refugees between different countries. More specifically, international solidarity in response to the migration crisis would significantly reduce the refugee flows to EU countries, incur a limited burden on non-EU countries, and, at the same time, better take the preferences of the Ukrainians into account. |
| Keywords: | Ukraine; Refugees; Migration preferences |
| JEL: | F22 J15 O15 |
| Date: | 2022–09–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:iuiwop:1440&r= |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Water Supply and Sanitation - Water Supply and Sanitation Economics Water Supply and Sanitation - Water Supply and Sanitation Finance Water Supply and Sanitation - Water Supply and Sanitation Governance and Institutions Water Supply and Sanitation - Water Supply and Sanitation Policy, Legislation and Regulation Water Supply and Sanitation - Water Utility Services to the Poor |
| Date: | 2021–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:35854&r= |
| By: | Artem Vdovychenko (National Bank of Ukraine) |
| Abstract: | In this study, we apply the Kalman filter to estimate the set of reduced-form Phillips curves for different types of inflation in Ukraine. Based on the estimated models, we derive a number of series of non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU) that provide information about the general trajectory and last tendencies of trend unemployment. To better identify the unemployment trend, we include indicators of long-term unemployment and the Beveridge curve shifts as exogenous variables in the NAIRU equation. Both variables demonstrate a significant impact on NAIRU dynamics. Our estimates show that the Phillips curve slope in Ukraine lies in a standard range of -0.3 to -0.5, with high statistical significance. The median value of estimated NAIRUs was at its lowest at 7.2% at the end of 2008, after which it gradually increased to 9.4% by the end of 2021. |
| Keywords: | Phillips curve; unemployment; NAIRU; Kalman filter; Beveridge curve |
| JEL: | E24 E31 |
| Date: | 2022–04–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gii:giihei:heidwp21-2022&r= |
| By: | Bardt, Hubertus; Demary, Markus; Grömling, Michael; Hentze, Tobias; Hüther, Michael; Obst, Thomas; Schaefer, Thilo; Schäfer, Holger |
| Abstract: | Die deutsche Wirtschaft befindet sich infolge von Angebots- und Nachfrageschocks in einer breit angelegten Rezession. Vorerst wird kein Ende der russischen Invasion in der Ukraine erwartet. Daraus ergeben sich hohe Risiken hinsichtlich einer umfassenden Energieversorgung in Deutschland und hohe Energiekosten für die gesamte Volkswirtschaft. Zudem leiden die globalen Liefernetzwerke unter den pandemiebedingten Verspannungen. Hinzu kommt die Gefahr, dass steigende Arbeitskosten die Wettbewerbsfähigkeit der Firmen und deren Absatzchancen zusätzlich verschlechtern. Die hohen Inflationsraten zehren an der Kaufkraft der privaten Haushalte. Angesichts der unsicheren Wirtschaftsperspektiven halten sich die Unternehmen mit ihren Investitionen zurück. Die Weltwirtschaft verliert an Schwung und dies setzt dem deutschen Exportgeschäft zu. All dies belastet die gesamtwirtschaftliche Nachfrage in ihrer vollen Breite. Vor diesem Hintergrund wird das reale Bruttoinlandsprodukt in Deutschland im Jahresdurchschnitt 2022 nur noch um knapp 1 1/4 Prozent über dem Vorjahresniveau liegen. Beginnend mit dem dritten Quartal 2022 wird die Wirtschaftsleistung rückläufig sein und erst im dritten Quartal 2023 ist wieder mit einem Anstieg zu rechnen. Diese Erholung wird sich im Jahresverlauf 2023 verstärken, falls sich die vielfältigen Versorgungsprobleme allmählich zurückbilden und die damit einhergehenden negativen Preiseffekte nachlassen. Die Inflationsrate wird im Jahr 2022 bei rund 8 Prozent und auch im kommenden Jahr voraussichtlich über 5 Prozent liegen. Für den Jahresdurchschnitt 2023 wird ein Rückgang des realen Bruttoinlandsprodukts um 1 3/4 Prozent erwartet. Dabei werden die realen privaten Konsumausgaben ihr Vorjahresniveau um 2 1/4 Prozent unterschreiten. Bei den Bauinvestitionen ist für 2022 und 2023 ein Minus zu erwarten. Die Ausrüstungsinvestitionen kommen nur wenig von der Stelle. Damit wird die infolge der Pandemie entstandene Investitionslücke bis zum Jahresende 2023 nicht geschlossen werden. Der Außenhandel bleibt im Umfeld der schwachen Weltwirtschaft ebenfalls ausgebremst. Dieses schlechte makroökonomische Umfeld wird vorerst den Arbeitsmarkt nur moderat belasten. Die Arbeitslosenquote steigt im Jahresdurchschnitt 2023 auf gut 5 3/4 Prozent. Mit andauernden Belastungen auf dem gegenwärtigen Niveau sind langfristige Folgewirkungen für die Wirtschaftsstruktur, den Arbeitsmarkt und den damit verbundenen Lebensstandard zu befürchten. |
| Keywords: | Konjunktur,Weltwirtschaft,Arbeitsmarkt,Staatshaushalt,Finanzmärkte |
| JEL: | E2 E3 E5 E6 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iwkrep:492022&r= |
| By: | Gentilini,Ugo; Almenfi,Mohamed Bubaker Alsafi; Tirumala Madabushi Matam I,Hrishikesh; Okamura,Yuko; Urteaga,Emilio Raul; Valleriani,Giorgia; Muhindo,Jimmy Vulembera; Aziz,Sheraz |
| Abstract: | This note provides an update of social protection and related measures in Ukraine and fordisplaced Ukrainian populations in a variety of countries. Previous versions of the note were published on March 10(v.1), March 18 (v.2), and April 8 (v.3). Data is preliminary and meant to elicit comments, additions,integration, and revisions to be incorporated in next living paper versions. Measures include typical social protectionprograms (social assistance, insurance, and active labor market measures), while select services in the realm ofhousing, health, education, and other human development dimensions are also reported. This is because such measuresare often part of an integrated package of interventions for refugees, asylum seekers and other displaced populations.Specifically, the note tracks four broad measures, namely cash transfers; in-kind transfers; labor markets; and “otherselect measures.” The latter includes five subcategories, i.e., education, health, housing, transportation, and otherservices. For Ukraine only, we also include budget support as a core measure. Because of the nature of displacementsupport, humanitarian assistance in the form of programs similar to governmentsupported social protection (e.g., cashtransfers, food assistance) is also recorded. Details are still preliminary and incomplete. More information onspecific measures will be provided as data becomes available, although this version 4 already includes asubstantial number of sources (about a thousand, see endnotes). To this effect, continuous monitoring ofinstitutional and government websites and announcements, as well as scanning of news outlets and programmatic materialsby humanitarian organizations is ongoing. Data sources for reported measures are provided as weblinks. Suggestions onmaterials and measures to be included in future updates are welcome and could be signaled to the team directly. |
| Date: | 2022–06–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:hdnspu:173060&r= |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Health, Nutrition and Population - Disease Control & Prevention Macroeconomics and Economic Growth - Business Cycles and Stabilization Policies Macroeconomics and Economic Growth - Economic Growth Macroeconomics and Economic Growth - Fiscal & Monetary Policy Poverty Reduction - Inequality |
| Date: | 2021–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:35903&r= |
| By: | Juliette Cleuziou (LADEC - Laboratoire d’Anthropologie Des Enjeux Contemporains - ENS Lyon - École normale supérieure - Lyon - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Caroline Dufy (CED - Centre Émile Durkheim - IEP Bordeaux - Sciences Po Bordeaux - Institut d'études politiques de Bordeaux - UB - Université de Bordeaux - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | This article offers an original insight on the gift economy in Tajikistan. As long shown by the literature, ceremonial expenditures sustain social status and convey moral obligations and social order. In this context, we find that marriage breakdown sheds a new light on social cohesion and the sense of indebtedness in Tajik society. In the case studies provided, the material and symbolic meaning of marital breakdown is analysed from the perspective of divorced women. In the context of high ritual expenditure, we ask what are the effects of divorce (and more broadly, demarriage) on women's perceptions of gender and marital roles in a context of economic crisis and mass male migration to Russia. Specifically, we are interested in the language of debt that shapes women's discourses about their former marital bond, and how it disrupts the principles of the gift economy that derive from traditional gender and generational roles. In particular, the notion of debt allows divorced women to condemn their ex-in-laws' failings towards them. The end of the marriage opens the way for the denunciation of broken promises, the expression of unfulfilled expectations and the breaking of marital, gender and collective obligations towards the spouse. While it brings with it a demand for recognition and social justice, it also expresses the contradictory tensions that run through society, its norms and the traditional social roles associated with conjugality. |
| Keywords: | Tajikistan,Central Asia,Marriage,Divorce,Debt,Gender relations |
| Date: | 2022–07–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-03774872&r= |
| By: | Gustavo Arcia; Rafael de Hoyos; Harry Patrinos; Alina Sava; Tigran Shmis; Janssen Teixeira |
| Keywords: | Education - Access & Equity in Basic Education Education - Educational Institutions & Facilities Education - Educational Sciences Education - Effective Schools and Teachers Health, Nutrition and Population - Disease Control & Prevention |
| Date: | 2021–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:36316&r= |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Governance - E-Government |
| Date: | 2021–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:35852&r= |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Education - Education Reform and Management Education - Educational Institutions & Facilities Education - Effective Schools and Teachers |
| Date: | 2021–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:35540&r= |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Social Protections and Labor - Vocational & Technical Education Social Protections and Labor - Labor Markets |
| Date: | 2021–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:35905&r= |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Public Sector Development - Public Sector Expenditure Policy Agriculture - Agribusiness Agriculture - Agricultural Sector Economics Agriculture - Food Security |
| Date: | 2021–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:35972&r= |
| By: | Hasan Dudu; Adanna Chukwuma; Armineh Manookian; Anastas Aghazaryan; Muhammad Zeshan |
| Keywords: | Health, Nutrition and Population - Health Economics & Finance Health, Nutrition and Population - Health Indicators Macroeconomics and Economic Growth - Economic Growth Macroeconomics and Economic Growth - Economic Modeling and Statistics |
| Date: | 2021–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:35688&r= |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Environment - Brown Issues and Health Environment - Pollution Management & Control Urban Development - Urban Water & Waste Management Water Supply and Sanitation - Urban Solid Waste Management Water Supply and Sanitation - Waste Disposal & Utilization |
| Date: | 2021–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:35704&r= |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Health, Nutrition and Population - Health Monitoring & Evaluation Health, Nutrition and Population - Health Service Management and Delivery Industry - Health Care Services Industry |
| Date: | 2021–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:35537&r= |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Governance - E-Government |
| Date: | 2021–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:35853&r= |
| By: | World Bank Group |
| Keywords: | Public Sector Development - Public Financial Management Public Sector Development - Public Sector Corruption/Anticorruption Measures Public Sector Development - Public Sector Administrative and Civil Service Reform |
| Date: | 2021–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:35470&r= |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Health, Nutrition and Population - Disease Control & Prevention Health, Nutrition and Population - Immunizations Macroeconomics and Economic Growth - Business Cycles and Stabilization Policies Macroeconomics and Economic Growth - Economic Growth Macroeconomics and Economic Growth - Fiscal & Monetary Policy Poverty Reduction - Employment and Shared Growth |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:36126&r= |