nep-cis New Economics Papers
on Confederation of Independent States
Issue of 2022‒10‒10
seventeen papers chosen by

  1. Environmental Politics in Authoritarian Regimes: Waste Management in the Russian Regions By Olga Masyutina; Ekaterina Paustyan; Grigory Yakovlev
  2. Republic of Latvia: 2022 Article IV Consultation-Press Release and Staff Report By International Monetary Fund
  3. Austria: 2022 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report By International Monetary Fund
  4. Republic of Estonia: 2022 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Republic of Estonia By International Monetary Fund
  5. Monthly Report No. 03/2022 By Vasily Astrov; Vladislav L. Inozemtsev; Nina Vujanović
  6. Endogenous Monetary Policy Credibility in Ukraine By Kateryna Savolchuk; Anton Grui
  7. Die Zeitenwende erreicht den deutschen Arbeitsmarkt By Bonin, Holger; Rinne, Ulf
  8. Named entity narratives By Benner, Niklas; Lange, Kai-Robin; Jentsch, Carsten
  9. Universal Basic Income, Taxes, and the Poor By Nora Lustig; Valentina Martinez Pabon
  10. Community, state and market: Understanding historical water governance evolution in Central Asia By Amirova, Iroda; Petrick, Martin; Djanibekov, Nodir
  11. Zambia: Request for an Arrangement Under the Extended Credit Facility-Press Release; Staff Report; Staff Supplement; Staff Statement; and Statement by the Executive Director for Zambia By International Monetary Fund
  12. Besonnen handeln: Die Rolle Chinas in unruhigen Agrarmärkten By Kuhn, Lena; Jaghdani, Tinoush Jamali; Prehn, Sören; Sun, Zhanli; Glauben, Thomas
  13. An analysis of farm support measures in the Republic of Moldova By Möllers, Judith; Herzfeld, Thomas; Batereanu, Lucia; Arapi-Gjini, Arjola
  14. Defining gas price limits and gas saving targets for a large-scale gas supply interruption By Neuhoff, K.
  15. Impact of interpersonal influences on Employee engagement and Psychological contract: Effects of guanxi, wasta, jeitinho, blat and pulling strings By Elizabeth Kassab Sfeir
  16. Keep calm and trade on: China's decisive role in agricultural markets under turmoil By Kuhn, Lena; Jaghdani, Tinoush Jamali; Prehn, Sören; Sun, Zhanli; Glauben, Thomas
  17. Einreisebeschränkungen für russische Staatsbürger: Optionen für eine rechtmäßige und koordinierte Regelung in der Schengen-Zone By Bossong, Raphael

  1. By: Olga Masyutina; Ekaterina Paustyan; Grigory Yakovlev
    Abstract: Russian regions display a significant variation in terms of waste management efforts. This is puzzling considering the importance of waste management for all regional governments and the urgency of the problem for the Russian public as reflected in opinion polls. We study whether more authoritarian regional governments in Russia are better able to solve the problem of waste management. Using a regional panel data set for the period of 2012-2019, we find that our measure of the degree of authoritarianism - the share of votes for the United Russia party in parliamentary elections - has a strong positive effect on the share of recycled waste in the Russian regions. This result indicates that more authoritarian regions tend to recycle more household waste than less authoritarian regions. This finding is consistent with the theory of environmental authoritarianism that suggests that authoritarian governments are better able to tackle environmental challenges.
    Keywords: Environmental authoritarianism, waste recycling, Russia, subnational politics
    JEL: Q53 Q58 R58
    Date: 2022–05
  2. By: International Monetary Fund
    Abstract: The economy fared relatively well during the pandemic, but the war in Ukraine is another major shock. The key vulnerabilities are Latvia’s significant reliance on imported gas from Russia until recently, the impact of high international energy prices on inflation and economic activity, and refugee inflows. Thus far, almost 33,000 refugees have entered Latvia. Parliamentary elections later this year may put pressure on the government budget.
    Keywords: government finance statistics yearbook; green transition goal; financial asset; supply bottleneck; wage-price spiral; government finance statistics database; price pressure; World Bank-International Monetary Fund mission; General government operation; Energy prices; Inflation; Income; Baltics; Global
    Date: 2022–08–23
  3. By: International Monetary Fund
    Abstract: Austria is highly vulnerable to spillovers from the war in Ukraine given its high dependence on energy imports from Russia, deep integration into global value chains, and large banking exposures. After high growth in the first half of 2022, growth is projected to fall sharply through 2023 due to impact of the war and the related energy crisis. Over the medium term, annual growth is projected to stabilize around 1¾ percent. However, output will remain below the pre-crisis trend. Uncertainty is extraordinarily high with significant downside risks.
    Keywords: gas storage; staff appraisal; staff projection; gas reserve; HICP regulation; External sector statistics; Personal income tax; Inflation; Labor markets; Energy prices; Europe; Global
    Date: 2022–09–02
  4. By: International Monetary Fund
    Abstract: Estonia’s economy is vulnerable to the fallout from the war in Ukraine given its geographical proximity to Russia, the geopolitical context, and high passthrough from global energy prices to domestic inflation. Although direct exposures to Russia and Ukraine through trade, services, and financial channels appear to be contained, the war is already significantly affecting economic confidence. Nevertheless, economic activity has progressively adapted to the pandemic, rebounding strongly in 2021, and as of mid-2022, remaining resilient to the headwinds from the war. Inflation has surged into double digits and is increasingly broad-based.
    Date: 2022–09–02
  5. By: Vasily Astrov (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Vladislav L. Inozemtsev; Nina Vujanović (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw)
    Abstract: Chart of the Month Russia losing half of its foreign reserves by Vasily Astrov Russia’s war economy by Vladislav Inozemtsev Following the harsh economic sanctions imposed by the West, the war-time economic policy adopted by Russia will shape its economy for at least the next six months. It involves, among other things, the discriminatory treatment of foreigners and foreign-based entities from ‘unfriendly countries’, the creation of a de facto two-tier banking system, a separation of the rouble and foreign currency markets, and possibly the expropriation of foreign-owned property. It will not, however, forestall the most serious economic crisis in the history of modern Russia. EU investment in China past, present and ways ahead by Nina Vujanović Its significant economic reforms and the opening up of its markets have rendered China one of the largest trade players in the world. However, EU FDI in China has been relatively modest. The preferential treatment received by state-owned enterprises and conditions stipulating the transfer of technology remain major obstacles to FDI. Implementation of the Comprehensive Agreement on Investment with the EU and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership agreement with other Asian and Pacific countries may, however, change EU investment patterns in China in the future. Monthly and quarterly statistics for Central, East and Southeast Europe
    Keywords: foreign exchange reserves; economic sanctions; banking sector; foreign exchange; stock market; foreign property; foreign direct investment; Comprehensive Agreement on Investment; FDI regulatory restrictiveness
    Date: 2022–03
  6. By: Kateryna Savolchuk (National Bank of Ukraine); Anton Grui (National Bank of Ukraine)
    Abstract: In this paper, authors introduce endogenous monetary policy credibility into a semi-structural New Keynesian model. The model is estimated based on data for Ukraine, which de facto adopted inflation-targeting at the end of 2015. Authors model credibility as a nonlinear function of two gaps – actual and expected deviations of inflation from its target. Credibility is asymmetric as above-target inflation reduces it more than below-target. Authors show how low policy credibility can make economic stabilization more costly, and expansionary policy – counterproductive. It can also generate the price puzzle. Furthermore, we estimate the historical path of monetary policy credibility in Ukraine.
    Keywords: New Keynesian model, monetary policy credibility, inflation expectations
    JEL: C51 E52 E58
    Date: 2022–06
  7. By: Bonin, Holger (IZA); Rinne, Ulf (IZA)
    Abstract: Corona-Pandemie und Ukraine-Krieg markieren auch für den deutschen Arbeitsmarkt eine Zäsur. Diese Krisen sind Beschleuniger für bereits länger wirkende transformative Kräfte, wie Digitalisierung und Dekarbonisierung, und dürften die internationale Arbeitsteilung und Mobilität nachhaltig verändern. Der Fachkräftemangel, der schon vor der Krise die Entwicklung der deutschen Wirtschaft hemmte, hat sich inzwischen zu einem Arbeitskräftemangel ausgewachsen und auch den Niedriglohnsektor erreicht. Der vorliegende Beitrag skizziert, wie den Engpässen durch konzertiertes Handeln von der Angebots- und Nachfrageseite her entgegengewirkt werden könnte. Er zeigt, dass die Bewältigung der Zeitenwende auf dem deutschen Arbeitsmarkt Politik, Unternehmen und Erwerbspersonen mehr Anstrengungen abverlangt.
    Keywords: Arbeitsmarkt, Fachkräftemangel, Arbeitskräftemangel, Corona-Pandemie, Ukraine-Krieg, demografischer Wandel, Strukturwandel, Digitalisierung, Dekarbonisierung, Niedriglohnsektor, Zuwanderung, geringfügige Beschäftigung, Ehegattensplitting, Ausbildung,
    JEL: J01 J18 J21 J68
    Date: 2022–09
  8. By: Benner, Niklas; Lange, Kai-Robin; Jentsch, Carsten
    Abstract: While the actions of economists and politicians can be influenced by facts, statistics or empirical predictions, narratives are becoming an increasingly important factor for the decision making in the field of economics and politics. Evaluating such narratives not at selective points in time but rather as a timeline can give us an insight on the effects of changing narratives on economic processes. We propose a model to detect two distinct types of temporal narratives by evaluating the relevance of entities in a timeline of newspaper articles. This methodology is based on the fundamental concept that all narratives are driven by and centered around certain entities. We provide a model to describe entity-based time dynamic media attention and detect both temporary (events) and permanent (structural break) changes of narratives by analyzing the number of appearances of an entity and the change in word frequency surrounding it. Our model detects several meaningful events and structural breaks, such as Mario Draghi's well known 'Whatever it takes' speech in 2012 or the change of narrative surrounding Wladimir Putin due to start of the Russian-Ukrainian war in 2022. For instance, this enables us to detect the narrative shift contained in newspaper articles about the Russian Federation from being a German business partner and gas trader to being called a war mongering regime.
    Keywords: Event detection,time series for count data,text mining,econometrics,narrative
    JEL: C43 C55 C89 E71
    Date: 2022
  9. By: Nora Lustig (Tulane University); Valentina Martinez Pabon (Yale University)
    Abstract: A Universal Basic Income (UBI) is often seen as an attractive policy option to replace existing targeted transfer and subsidy programs. However, in a budget-neutral switch to a UBI there is a trade-off between the generosity of the universal transfer, and hence its poverty impact, and the implied increase in tax burden. We summarize our results for fourteen low- and middle-income countries. We find that, with the exception of Russia, a poverty reducing, budget-neutral UBI would entail a significant increase in the net tax burden of top deciles. The efficiency cost and political resistance for such a policy would likely be too high.
    Keywords: universal basic income, microsimulation, inequality, poverty, tax incidence
    JEL: D31 D63 H22 I32 I38
    Date: 2022–09
  10. By: Amirova, Iroda; Petrick, Martin; Djanibekov, Nodir
    Abstract: In Central Asia, community water governance institutions emerged and prevailed for a long time. By employing an analytical modelling approach using variants of the evolutionary Hawk-Dove game, we scrutinise three epochs' (pre-Tsarist, Tsarist and Soviet) coordination mechanisms and qualitatively compare them in the efficiency spectrum. We find that the pre-Tsarist community water governance setting, due to its synergetic and pluralistic aspects, was associated with higher efficiency than the Tsarist and Soviet periods' settings. The pre-Tsarist community arrangement linked irrigation duties with benefits. Our analytical model reveals how the Tsarist Russian regulation that replaced the election-sanctioning element with a de-facto system appointing the irrigation staff and paying them fixed wages corrupted the well-established pre-Tsarist decentralised water governance. We term this move the "Kaufman drift". Resulting inadequacies in the water governance could have been averted either by restoring the community mechanism's election-sanctioning attribute or else with an alternative approach such as privatising water resources. With the use of the "Krivoshein game," we produce an alternative scenario for the region where we envisage the potential consequences of the water privatisation. Modelling history might not disentangle the complex nature of water governance evolution fully, however, the heuristics we use in the analysis assist in guiding the diagnosis of the matter and its solution. This makes our study well-timed for contemporary Central Asia. The analyses assess current water management's chances to return to ancient principles of election-sanctioning and perspectives of private irrigation water rights.
    Keywords: Central-Asian water,self-governance,hierarchy,markets,evolution
    Date: 2022
  11. By: International Monetary Fund
    Abstract: Zambia is dealing with large fiscal and external imbalances resulting from years of economic mismanagement, especially an overly ambitious public investment drive that did not yield any significant boost to growth or revenues. A drought in 2019 and the COVID-19 pandemic exacerbated the acute economic and social challenges facing the country, with poverty, inequality, and malnutrition rates amongst the highest in the world. As a result, Zambia is in debt distress, defaulting on its Eurobonds in November 2020 while also accumulating arrears to other creditors. The war in Ukraine has increased prices of fuel and fertilizer, amplifying pressures further.
    Date: 2022–09–06
  12. By: Kuhn, Lena; Jaghdani, Tinoush Jamali; Prehn, Sören; Sun, Zhanli; Glauben, Thomas
    Abstract: Der internationale Agrarhandel ist ein Schlüsselfaktor für die globale Ernährungssicherheit. Er schafft ein vielfältigeres Nahrungsangebot (e.g. Krivonos und Kuhn 2019), sichert gegen lokale Produktionsausfälle ab (Glauben et al. 2022) und hilft, sich regionale Produktions- und Handelsvorteile zu Nutze zu machen. Auch wenn eine regionale Produktion und kurze Lieferketten Transportkosten reduzieren können, begünstigen sie aber nicht zwangsläufig resilientere oder gar klimaneutralere Ernährungssysteme (Stein und Santini 2022). In jüngerer Zeit sehen sich die Agrarmärkte weltweit mit zusätzlichen Herausforderungen und Unsicherheiten konfrontiert. Lieferkettenengpässe und Preissteigerungen in Folge der andauernden COVID - 19 Pandemie, steigende Nahrungsmittelnachfrage sowie zunehmende Extremwetterereignisse in Folge des Klimawandels belasten insbesondere in importbedürftigen Regionen mit niedrigen Pro-Kopf-Einkommen die ohnehin kritische Ernährungssituation zusätzlich. Zudem stellen jüngere geopolitische Risiken wie etwa der Handelskonflikt zwischen den USA und China oder der russische Einmarsch in die Ukraine den internationalen Agrarhandel auf den Prüfstand. Vor diesem Hintergrund nimmt China als weltgrößter Konsument und Importeur von Nahrungsmitteln eine zentrale Position im globalen Handelsgeschehen ein. Einfluss hat das Land somit auch auf Preisentwicklungen an internationalen Märkten und für globale Versorgungslagen, insbesondere im globalen Süden. Aus globaler Sicht kann insofern nur von ausgeprägten Mobilitäts- und Handelsrestriktionen sowie übermäßiger Lagerhaltung abgeraten werden. Alles dies schwächt das Sicherheitsnetz des globalen Agrarhandels und damit die Reaktionsfähigkeit des Handelssystems auf globale Herausforderungen im Zusammenhang mit dem Bevölkerungswachstum und Klimawandel.
    Date: 2022
  13. By: Möllers, Judith; Herzfeld, Thomas; Batereanu, Lucia; Arapi-Gjini, Arjola
    Abstract: In the Republic of Moldova, agricultural policies aim to increase the compettveness of its farming sector, ensure the sustainable management of its natural resources and improve the living standards in rural areas. The state is an important player, allocatng fnancial resources for supportng agriculture and carrying out investment projects in this feld. A post-investment subsidy program incentvises agricultural producers to modernise their farms and producton. Farmers who have made investments in developing producton and post-harvest infrastructure could beneft from subsidies for these investments and fnancial resources allocated by the Agency for Interventon and Payments in Agriculture. However, it is not clear how benefcial these subsidies are for agricultural producers and whether the goals formulated by policies are met. A critcal challenge of policy assessment is the lack of regular surveys gathering farm-level data in Moldova. Another challenge is that the impact of some investments can only be quantfed with a delay of several years. This report results from an impact assessment study analysing the efectveness of existng policy measures. A survey of 800 farms was carried out to realise this assessment, which provided informaton about the actvity and investments made over several years. The team of researchers analysed the collected data to evaluate the policy measures covered by the survey. The study highlights essental facilitators and barriers to the farms' agricultural investment and business actvity. The impact assessment underlined that the investment subsidies had measurable positve efects on labour, farm producton and economic success. At the same tme, it indicated directons for improving and rebalancing policy instruments to increase the compettveness and sustainability of the agricultural sector of the Republic of Moldova.
    Keywords: Moldova,farm subsidies,agricultural policies,impact assessment
    Date: 2022
  14. By: Neuhoff, K.
    Abstract: Should deliveries of Russian gas by pipeline be interrupted for an extended period of time, then gas prices could explode to up to several hundred Euros per MWh due to scarcity of supply. This risk is already reflected in future and spot gas prices and has caused much of the current extremely high gas price levels and volatility. Any additional price increase after a potential large-scale gas supply interruption would likely trigger even more government interventions in EU’s energy markets, with the objective to limit costs for households and other consumers. To avoid such ad-hoc measures, the EU Commission has proposed in the REPowerEU communication to agree already now, ahead of any potential large-scale interruption, on a coordinated European response to a large-scale gas supply interruption. We explore how the proposed measures, which include binding national gas saving targets and limits to the gas price in the case of large-scale gas supply interruptions, would impact supply and demand after an interruption. We also assess how the level of the price limit would impact the supply and demand balance after an interruption and the price formation prior to it.
    Keywords: Price cap, Security of Supply, Gas saving, Consumer welfare
    JEL: D30 D47 D61 L95
    Date: 2022–09–13
  15. By: Elizabeth Kassab Sfeir
    Abstract: This study puts forward a conceptual model linking interpersonal influences' impact on Employee Engagement, Psychological contracts, and Human Resource Practices. It builds on human and social capital, as well as the social exchange theory (SET), projecting how interpersonal influences can impact the psychological contract (PC) and employee engagement (EE) of employees. This research analyzes the interpersonal influences of Wasta in the Middle East, Guanxi in China, Jeitinho in Brazil, Blat in Russia, and Pulling Strings in England. Interpersonal influences draw upon nepotism, favoritism, and corruption in organizations in many countries. This paper draws on the qualitative methods of analyzing previous theories. It uses the Model Paper method of predicting relationships by examining the question of how do interpersonal influences impact employee engagement and psychological contract?. It is vital to track the effects of interpersonal influences on PC and EE, acknowledging that the employer can either empower or disengage our human capital.
    Date: 2022–09
  16. By: Kuhn, Lena; Jaghdani, Tinoush Jamali; Prehn, Sören; Sun, Zhanli; Glauben, Thomas
    Abstract: International agricultural trade is key to improving global food security. It ensures access to more diversified foods (e.g. Krivonos and Kuhn 2019 ), acts as a safety net against local production shortfalls (Glauben et al. 2022) and helps make use of regional climatic or resource-related production advantages. While local production and short supply chains can reduce transport costs, they do not necessarily equate to resilient food systems or lower carbon footprints (Stein and Santini 2022). Currently, though, international agricultural trade is facing supply chain disruptions and rising world market prices resulting from the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic, increasing global food demand and extreme weather events. Both are threatening already strained food security, in particular in import-dependent, low-income regions. Geopolitical risks, such as the China- US trade war and Russia's invasion of Ukraine, are further rattling the food market. As the world's largest consumer of agricultural goods, China's trade strategies influence world markets, with ripple-down effects for consumers around the world, particularly in the Global South. This policy brief aims at shedding light on China's current market actions, and the likely short- and mid-term developments and their impacts. We argue for moderation in response to short-term shocks. Excessive mobility and trade restrictions as well as extreme stockpiling should be avoided. These harm the trade system's overall capacity to resist further and more serious global challenges related to population growth and climate change.
    Date: 2022
  17. By: Bossong, Raphael
    Abstract: Der Rat der EU-Außenminister soll Ende August darüber beraten, ob die Möglichkeiten für russische Staatsbürger, in die Schengen-Zone einzureisen, stark beschränkt werden sollen. Mehrere nord- und osteuropäische Staaten haben bereits weitreichende Maßnahmen veranlasst und finden hierfür eine wachsende Unterstützung in der EU. Deutschland hingegen weist bislang Restriktionen bei der Visavergabe zurück und begründet dies mit der Situation russischer Regimekritiker. Auch wenn es bei der Einreisekontrolle und beim Aufenthaltsrecht nationale Ermessensspielräume gibt, sollte eine konvergente europäische Regelung vereinbart werden. Der EU-Visa­kodex bietet hinreichend Ansatzpunkte, um touristische Reisen erheblich einzuschränken. Ein umfassender Einreisestopp wäre hingegen unverhältnismäßig, auch weil die Vergabe humanitärer Visa kaum ausgeweitet werden wird.
    Date: 2022

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