|
on Confederation of Independent States |
| By: | Moreno Bertoldi; Paolo Pesenti; Helene Rey |
| Abstract: | The Federal Reserve Bank of New York, the European Commission, and the Center for Economic and Policy Research (CEPR) jointly organized the conference “Transatlantic Economic Policy Responses to the Pandemic and the Road to Recovery,” on November 18, 2021. The conference brought together U.S. and European-based policymakers and economists from academia, think tanks, and international financial institutions to discuss issues that transatlantic policymakers are facing. The conference was held before the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the global monetary tightening. Still, its medium to long-term focus provides interesting insights on economic policy challenges ahead. |
| Keywords: | United States; Europe; pandemic; COVID-19; monetary policy; fiscal policy; European Central Bank (ECB) |
| Date: | 2022–07–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fednls:94562&r= |
| By: | Gutmann, Jerg; Pitlik, Hans; Fronaschütz, Andrea |
| Abstract: | The Russian invasion of Ukraine has caused disruptions in international trade and highlighted the dependency of small open economies in Europe on imports, especially of energy. These events may have changed Europeans' attitude towards globalization. We study two waves of representative population surveys conducted in Austria, one right before the Russian invasion and the other two months later. Our unique dataset allows us to assess changes in the Austrian public's attitudes towards globalization and import dependency as a short-term reaction to economic turbulences and geopolitical upheaval at the onset of war in Europe. We show that two months after the invasion, anti-globalization sentiment in general has not spread, but that people have become more concerned about strategic external dependencies, especially in energy imports, suggesting that citizens' attitudes regarding globalization are differentiated. |
| Keywords: | Austria,crisis,conflict,globalization attitudes,war |
| JEL: | F13 F51 F52 N40 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ilewps:62&r= |
| By: | Kohnert, Dirk |
| Abstract: | The EU is one of the three largest economies in the world. But its economy, which is still suffering from the COVID-19 pandemic and the negative effects of the Russian war in Ukraine, faces a bleak outlook. Inflation, or even stagflation, is a major concern as it reflects cost pressures from disrupted supply chains and tight labour markets. The Russian invasion of Ukraine could also lead to a sustained stop in European gas supplies from Russia. Fitch Ratings forecast the likelihood of a technical recession in the eurozone due to ongoing gas rationing. Apparently, the EU is at the mercy of two unpredictable powers, Putin and the weather. Moreover, China is also affected by global imbalances, and when China coughs, Europe catches the flu. However, the risks are greatest in sub-Saharan Africa. Its global growth spillovers come mainly from the EU and the BRICS countries. In addition to its strong demographic growth, the continent is already suffering from climate change, including prolonged droughts, and political destabilization, particularly in the Sahel, Horn of Africa and East Africa. The two major African powers, Nigeria and South Africa are currently going through major socio-economic crises. Many sub-Saharan African countries are heavily dependent on energy and food imports, particularly wheat from Russia and Ukraine. For the approximately 30 million African poor, this means a further increase in inequality. A recession in Europe would amplify external pressures and growth challenges. In addition, the emerging sub-Saharan markets bear the greatest export risk to the EU. The debt problem is also looming again because lower global commodity prices slowed down economic growth. |
| Keywords: | UE; récession; guerre russo-ukrainienne; pandémie de COVID-19 en Afrique; Afrique subsaharienne; développement économique; développement humain; secteur informel; pauvreté; famine; commerce international; crises alimentaires; États fragiles; Nigeria; Afrique du Sud; postcolonialisme; études africaines; |
| JEL: | D31 D62 E24 E26 F13 F22 F35 F51 F54 N17 N47 O15 O17 P26 Z13 |
| Date: | 2022–08–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:114052&r= |
| By: | Kohnert, Dirk |
| Abstract: | The EU is one of the three largest economies in the world. But its economy, which is still suffering from the cCOVID-19 pandemic and the negative effects of the Russian war in Ukraine, faces a bleak outlook. Inflation, or even stagflation, is a major concern as it reflects cost pressures from disrupted supply chains and tight labor markets. The war in Ukraine could also lead to a sustained stop in European gas supplies from Russia. Fitch Ratings therefore forecast the likelihood of a technical recession in the euro zone due to ongoing gas rationing. Apparently the EU is at the mercy of two unpredictable powers, Putin and the weather. China is also affected by global imbalances, and when China coughs, Europe catches the flu. However, the risks are greatest in sub-Saharan Africa. Its global growth spillovers come mainly from the EU and the BRICS countries. In addition to its strong demographic growth, the continent is already suffering from climate change, including prolonged droughts, and political destabilization, particularly in the Sahel, Horn of Africa and East Africa. The two major African powers, Nigeria and South Africa, are currently going through major socioeconomic crises. Many sub-Saharan African countries are heavily dependent on energy and food imports, particularly wheat from Russia and Ukraine. For the approximately 30 million African poor, this means an increase in inequality. A recession in Europe would amplify external pressures and growth challenges. In addition, the emerging sub-Saharan markets bear the greatest export risk to the EU. The debt problem is also looming again, because lower global commodity prices slowed down economic growth. |
| Keywords: | EU; recession; Russo-Ukrainian War; COVID-19 pandemic in Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa; economic development; human development; informal sector; poverty; famine; international trade; food crises; global power; fragile states; Nigeria; South Africa; Postcolonialism; African Studies |
| JEL: | D31 D62 E24 E26 F13 F22 F35 F51 F54 N17 N47 O15 O17 P26 Z13 |
| Date: | 2022–08–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:114051&r= |
| By: | Lööf, Hans (CESIS - Centre of Excellence for Science and Innovation Studies, Royal Institute of Technology); Stephan, Andreas (Linnaeus University) |
| Abstract: | The Russian-Ukrainian war increases the stress on forests. International sanctions hit exports from Russia and Belarus, while the conflict severely affects production in Ukraine. The three countries accounted for a quarter of the worldwide timber trade in 2021, and Russia was the world’s largest exporter of softwood. The war increases the European Union’s (EU’s) dependency on its own forest resources. This brings forward the challenge to achieve a balance between forests as carbon sink, habitat for biodiversity conservation, and functional ecosystems on the one hand, and on the other hand, the growing demand for wood-based materials harvested from forests and rising demand for renewable energy. Our study provides insights into this trade-off with regard to the climate goals, where EU’s forest-based bioeconomy may play a major role. |
| Keywords: | Bioeconomy; biodiversity; climate-change; forest management; sustainability |
| JEL: | F18 H70 L73 Q54 Q57 |
| Date: | 2022–08–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:cesisp:0491&r= |
| By: | Nils Steiner; Ruxanda Berlinschi; Etienne Farvaque; Jan Fidrmuc; Philipp Harms; Alexander Mihailov; Michael Neugart; Piotr Stanek |
| Abstract: | This paper uses a survey among students at European universities to explore whether Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has affected attitudes toward European integration. Some respondents completed the survey just before Russia’s assault on February 24, 2022, and some did so just afterwards, thus delivering a quasi-experimental design situation, which we exploit. Our results suggest that the ominous news about the Russian attack increased the participants’ interest in EU politics, consolidated their attachment to the EU, and made them more mindful and appreciative of the benefits of deeper European integration. In effect, the war so close to the EU Eastern border provoked a rally around the supranational EU flag, with convergence of public opinion toward shared European values. |
| Keywords: | European integration, EU attitudes, external threat, rally around the flag, Ukraine, Russia |
| JEL: | F02 F50 H77 N44 Z18 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9883&r= |
| By: | Kartseva, Marina; Peresetsky, Anatoly |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we use unique nationally representative data from the 25th wave of Russia Longitudinal Monitoring survey, (RLMS-HSE) for 2016. Based on the survey data, we investigate the impact of sandwich generation caregiving on the health behavior of Russian women—their health behavior, self-assessed health and life satisfaction. We found that sandwich generation caregiving reduces the likelihood of medical examinations, and regular meals, the effect is especially pronounced for working women. A small reduction in alcohol consumption is observed. The likelihood of smoking is reduced (especially for women under 50). The likelihood of being overweight increases, the proportion of chronic diseases decreases, and self-assessed health improves (these effects are especially pronounced for women who are non-pensioners). The proportion of depression decreases. These effects may be the result of an inattentive attitude to one's health and a consciousness of the social significance of fulfilling one's duty. The latter also affects the decreasing number of sandwich generation givers (SGC) dissatisfied with life in general. |
| Keywords: | sandwich generation; sandwich caregiving; Russia; female caregivers; health; health behavior; life satisfaction; informal care |
| JEL: | I12 I31 J14 J16 |
| Date: | 2022–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:113905&r= |
| By: | Thierry Warin |
| Abstract: | The world has changed and companies are facing a perfect storm, with catastrophic risks that have a very low probability of occurrence, but for which the consequences are enormous. The war in Ukraine is impacting global supply chains already constrained by the COVID-19 pandemic. Ukraine is responsible for about 70% of the world's neon and Russia controls 44% of the world's supply of palladium, both of which are essential inputs in semiconductor production. Semiconductors are themselves essential to the manufacture of cars, smartphones or even medical equipment. With Taiwan producing nearly two-thirds of the world's semiconductors, China's move to reunify with the island of Taiwan raises significant concerns. In this complex geopolitical context, some companies are considering reshoring or nearshoring, i.e. the repatriation of specific activities within national ou regional borders. Is this the right solution or not? In this short text, Thierry Warin, Fellow CIRANO and responsible of the CIRANO Pole on Data Science for Trade and Intermodal Transportationfor argues that the solutions to recent complex supply problems must themselves be complex. We need to use the tools we have access to today: massive data, computing power and new methods of analysis. The global trade system must adapt to a new technological paradigm, that of artificial intelligence and data science. The alternative of using the same mental patterns as in the past and proposing binary solutions is no longer acceptable today. There is no more time to lose. Le monde a changé et les entreprises sont confrontées à une tempête parfaite, avec des risques catastrophiques dont la probabilité d'occurrence est minime, mais pour lesquels les conséquences sont énormes. La guerre en Ukraine a un impact sur les chaînes d'approvisionnement mondiales déjà limitées par la pandémie de COVID-19. L’Ukraine est responsable d’environ 70 % du néon sur la planète et la Russie contrôle 44 % des approvisionnements mondiaux en palladium, deux intrants indispensables dans la production des semi-conducteurs. Les semi-conducteurs sont eux-mêmes indispensables à la fabrication de voitures, de téléphones intelligents ou même d’équipements médicaux. Avec Taïwan qui produit près des deux tiers des semi-conducteurs du monde, la velléité de la Chine de procéder à la réunification avec l’île de Taïwan soulève d’importantes inquiétudes. Dans ce contexte géopolitique complexe, certaines entreprises envisagent le rapatriement de certaines activités à l’intérieur des frontières nationales — le reshoring — ou régionales — le nearshoring. Est-ce, oui ou non, la bonne solution ? Dans ce court texte, Thierry Warin, Fellow CIRANO et responsable du Pôle CIRANO en science des données pour les échanges commerciaux et le transport intermodal, soutient que les solutions aux problèmes complexes d'approvisionnement récents doivent elles-mêmes être complexes. Nous devons utiliser les outils auxquels nous avons accès aujourd'hui : les données massives, la puissance de calcul et les nouvelles méthodes d'analyse. Le commerce mondial doit s'adapter à un nouveau paradigme technologique, celui de l'intelligence artificielle et de la science des données. L'alternative qui serait d'utiliser les mêmes schémas mentaux que par le passé et de proposer des solutions binaires n'est plus acceptable aujourd'hui. Il n'y a plus de temps à perdre. |
| Keywords: | Supply chains,data science,relocation,international trade,global value chains, Chaînes logistiques,Science des données,Relocalisation,Commerce international,Chaînes de valeur mondiales |
| Date: | 2022–08–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cir:circah:2022pe-06&r= |
| By: | Kuusela, Olli-Pekka; Lintunen, Jussi |
| Abstract: | Abstract If the worst-case scenarios materialize during the upcoming winter months, electricity markets are in danger of plunging into a severe and crippling crisis. The situation unfolds against the backdrop economic sanctions imposed by the EU on Russian economy in the aftermath of the war in Ukraine and Russia’s retaliation in curtailing energy exports to the member countries. In Finland, some electricity users are bearing a greater burden of the ensuing market turbulence. Therefore, political consensus has emerged in support of providing some economic relief for those households facing rapidly increasing costs of living. However, as a general principle, consumers and firms should primarily rely on private means for preparing and withstanding temporary market fluctuations. Instead of broad, untargeted support measures, the policy action should mainly focus on providing temporary relief for those low-income groups who cannot cope with the increasing cost of electricity, while also taking measures to reduce pressure on excessive prices. Additionally, the government should focus its efforts in boosting domestic electricity production, with the goal of reducing the risk of rolling blackouts during the coldest days of the winter months. All households should also have an incentive, or at least a sense of national urgency, to adjust and save in electricity consumption. |
| Keywords: | Electricity markets, Taxation, Subsidies, Electricity shortage, Emissions trading, Investment |
| JEL: | H20 Q40 Q41 Q48 |
| Date: | 2022–09–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rif:briefs:113&r= |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | The strong post-pandemic economic recovery was leading to an overheating economy and demand-side inflationary pressures. The war in Ukraine, including its impact on commodity prices, has, however, negatively impacted economic activity and further intensified inflationary pressures. With higher inflation for longer, policies should aim at preserving stability over the near-term while supporting the economy adapt to a higher interest rate environment over the medium-term. Although the current sociopolitical situation is less conducive to structural reforms, these remain key to ensuring sustained productivity growth that will support high wage growth and faster income convergence with Western Europe. |
| Date: | 2022–07–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2022/251&r= |
| By: | Christian Vallar (CERDACFF - Centre d’Etudes et de Recherche en Droit Administratif, Constitutionnel, Financier et Fiscal - UNS - Université Nice Sophia Antipolis (1965 - 2019) - COMUE UCA - COMUE Université Côte d'Azur (2015-2019) - UCA - Université Côte d'Azur) |
| Abstract: | Turkey has a decisive role at the heart of Eastern geopolitics, particularly because of its membership of NATO. Since the akp (Justice and Development Party) and its leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan (Turkish Muslim Brotherhood Islamism) came to power, foreign policy has seen a growing effervescence. This leads to impacts on organizations in terms of economic and energy development. Neo-Ottomanism, an expression of imperial nostalgia, led Ankara alongside Baku, on the Balkan route, but also to head towards North Africa, from Libya to Algeria and Tunisia, with varying successes. The Syrian crisis forces it to share with Russia the attempts to resolve the conflict. One constant is that of the obsession with the Kurdish threat, within Turkey but also on its borders, which leads to the repeated interventionism in Syria and Iraq. Finally, the White Sea, Turkey's qualifier for the eastern Mediterranean, attractsTurkish covetousness because of its hydrocarbon resources, causing a conflict situation with its neighbors. Nevertheless, President Erdogan's pragmatism leads him to temper his excesses, and to move closer to the monarchies of the Gulf, Egypt and Israel, without omitting his role as mediator between Ukraine and Russia. |
| Abstract: | La Turquie a un rôle déterminant au coeur de la géopolitique orientale, en particulier du fait de son appartenance à l'OTAN. Depuis l'arrivée au pouvoir de l'AKP (Parti de la Justice et du développement) et de son chef Recep Tayyip Erdogan (islamisme des Frères musulmans turcs), la politique étrangère a connu une effervescence croissante. Celle-ci conduit à des incidences sur les organisations en matière de développement économique et énergétique. Le néo ottomanisme, expression de la nostalgie impériale, amène Ankara aux côtés de Bakou, sur la route des Balkans, mais aussi à se diriger vers l'Afrique du Nord, de la Libye à l'Algérie et la Tunisie, avec des succès variables. La crise syrienne l'oblige à partager avec la Russie, les tentatives de résolution du conflit. Une constante est celle de l'obsession de la menace kurde, au sein de la Turquie mais aussi à ses frontières, ce qui amène l'interventionnisme réitéré en Syrie et en Irak. Enfin, la mer blanche, qualificatif turc de la Méditerranée orientale, attire la convoitise turque du fait de ses ressources en hydrocarbures, provoquant une situation conflictuelle avec ses voisins. Néanmoins, le pragmatisme du président Erdogan l'amène à tempérer ses excès, et à se rapprocher des monarchies du Golfe, de l'Egypte et d'Israël, sans omettre son rôle de médiateur entre Ukraine et Russie. |
| Keywords: | Neo-Ottomanism,NATO,Kurdish-White Sea question,Hegemony,Economic development,Néo ottomanisme,OTAN,Question kurde-mer blanche,Hégémonie,Développement économique |
| Date: | 2022–07–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03736195&r= |
| By: | Miller, Marcus (University of Warwick, CAGE and CEPR) |
| Abstract: | Gerard Roland examines data going back to 3,000 BC for historical roots that might explain the current division of nations as between cultures of collectivism and individualism. In response to the appeal for theories bearing on the empirical evidence presented - and of recent moves by Russia and China to create a ‘New World Order’ based on similar cultural division - three contributions are discussed. First is the ‘competing powers’ perspective of Acemoglu and Robinson, who propose that individualism flourishes where power is evenly balanced between the state and the people : otherwise, either Despotism or Disorder will ultimately prevail. Then there is Ken Binmore’s study of cooperative social contracts: this offers support for stable societies of each cultural type, based on the folk theorem of repeated games. Finally the notion that dictatorship may be sustained by deception rather than repression - by leaders whom Guriev and Treisman call ‘spin dictators’. In the light of these perspectives, what to make of the current drive for a new global order that recognizes different ‘spheres of influence’ for each of Roland’s cultural types? We look specifically at the case of Russia. |
| Keywords: | Individualism ; Collectivism ; Culture ; Social Contracts ; Social preferences ; Neofeudalism ; Despotism ; New World Order. JEL Codes: C70 ; C73 ; N00 ; P00 ; P50 ; Z10 ; Z13 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cge:wacage:623&r= |
| By: | Yurii S Shemshuchenko; Anatoliy V Kostruba (Vasyl Stefanyk Precarpathian National University) |
| Abstract: | The article analyses the place of corporate relations in the system of civil law. The relevance of the problem under study is determined by the lack of a clear definition of the concept and essence of the corporation in the legislations of the countries of the post-Soviet space, in contrast to the laws of foreign countries. The task is to determine the main criteria for assessing modern corporate relations from the point of view of existing civil law. A comparative analysis of the essence of corporate relations in Ukraine and abroad was conducted, their place in the system of civil law relations was determined. An objective assessment of the results obtained during the study is given, the prospects for research in this area are indicated. The relevance of the topic is due to the lack of a clear definition of the concept of corporation and corporate relations in existing regulations of civil law. In this regard, there is uncertainty in the interpretation of the concept of corporate relations from the point of view of the current legislation. In this paper, the task is to conduct a study of corporate relations in the aspect of the current civil law of Ukraine, as well as the countries of Europe, Central Asia and the United States, with the aim of determining the main criteria for designating these relations in relation to current regulatory legal acts. The method of comparative analysis of the work of domestic and foreign researchers in this field was selected in order to identify general trends in assessing the topic under study. The current legislation in the field of civil law governing the activities of corporations and corporate relations was evaluated. The applied value of this material is to identify the main criteria for the compliance of corporate relations with civil law with a view to the subsequent application of the results in a practical aspect. Also, of practical legal value is the comparison of existing laws governing civil law in Ukraine and countries taken for comparison. |
| Keywords: | legal entity,normative act,form of ownership,society,union,public relations,corporate law,Corporation law |
| Date: | 2022–06–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03710893&r= |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | GDP has fully recovered from the pandemic crisis, but government debt has risen to very high levels. The war in Ukraine triggered a surge in energy prices and the prospect of monetary policy tightening caused government bond yields to rise sharply. Implementation of the National Recovery and Resilience Plan (NRRP), which provides large EU grants and loans conditioned on implementing a comprehensive reform and investment program, is underway. |
| Date: | 2022–08–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2022/255&r= |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | The financial sector weathered COVID relatively well on the back of high pre-crisis capital and liquidity buffers, strong public and private sector balance sheets, and unprecedented public and ECB support. Immediate risks to Germany’s financial stability of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine appear to be manageable due to the banks’ limited direct exposures to Russia. However, risks associated with the economic fallout could impact some individual financial institutions, non-performing loans, and house prices. Real GDP growth was projected to regain momentum from mid-2022 onwards, but the war could hinder the recovery through supply constraints, higher-than-expected above-target inflation (with higher energy prices and supply constraints), a tightening of financial conditions, and shifts in investors’ confidence. |
| Date: | 2022–08–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2022/272&r= |
| By: | Jamee, Akram |
| Abstract: | This article examines the impact of the financial crisis of 2022 on the global economy, especially in MENA countries that are more directly embedded, With the aim of arriving at proposals that serve the Palestinian case, while commensurate with its specificity. We have tried to answer three central questions: First: What is the reality of rising prices globally and its relationship to the state of food insecurity? Second: What are the effects of rising prices globally on the Middle East and North Africa? Third: What are the repercussions of the global crisis on Palestine? The study concluded that the possibility of gradually increasing prices must coincide with the importance of continuing to seek more financial support provided by the international community to the Palestinian government. In addition, those decision-makers should put before them the social axis as a reform priority. Moreover, that the government must confront the threat of food insecurity and mitigate the impact of high international prices on the poor as soon as possible. Especially protecting vulnerable families, strengthening social safety nets, and mitigating the impact of price hikes on households through subsidizing food and energy products. |
| Keywords: | high prices, food security, Palestine, the Middle East, and North Africa, consumer price index, inflation, the Corona pandemic, the Russian-Ukrainian war |
| JEL: | F5 H1 P1 Q4 Q41 Q48 |
| Date: | 2022–07–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:114057&r= |
| By: | Furness, Mark; Keijzer, Niels |
| Abstract: | The proposal by the European Union (EU) to build a "Global Gateway" to the world is potentially an important juncture in EU foreign relations. Since its official launch in December 2021, most attention has been put on the initiative's geo-strategic implications and whether the EU can compete with China. Less attention has been paid to the Global Gateway's implications for EU development policy in terms of strategic objectives, decision-making, thematic focus and financing. Two aspects are important in this regard. The first is whether the Global Gateway is a serious proposal that can deliver on its headline promises to massively increase European infrastructure financing in developing countries, provide partners with an alternative economic and political model to that being offered by China, and make a meaningful contribution to their efforts to realise the 2030 Agenda. The EU's announcement that the Global Gateway will generate up to EUR 300 billion in investment by 2027 grabbed headlines, many of them sceptical. There is, however, no reason to doubt that the initiative will be adequately financed. Although the planning for the EU's international aid budget for 2021-2027 has mostly been completed, a significant proportion remains flexible and could be spent on Global Gateway projects. As for the EU's implementing capacity, the Gateway's financial toolbox draws on the EU's recent experiences with the Juncker Investment Plan and the External Investment Plan, which have both been utilised by development banks and private investors. The second aspect is whether the Global Gateway heralds a change in the EU's motivations, objectives and modalities for cooperation with developing countries and regions. On the surface, the Global Gateway does not seem to change much. There are many thematic overlaps with existing strategic frameworks for engaging with Africa and the EU's Neighbourhood. There is even a sense that the Global Gateway turns back the clock to the days when the EU focussed aid spending on infrastructure and emphasised its "political neutrality". The geopolitical context in which the EU finds itself is, however, being transformed by pandemic, wars and multipolarity. The impacts of epochal events such as the Covid-19 pandemic and Russia's invasion of Ukraine are still playing out. The Global Gateway signals a major adjustment in the EU's response to these transformations, particularly regarding its engagement with the "Global South". This will create a new paradigm for EU development policy, defined by strategic interests. It is likely that the new geostrategic framework will weaken the EU's commitment to, and observance of, core development policy principles, especially the focus on poverty, partner country ownership, open governance and the "do no harm" principle. The Global Gateway's use of aid to catalyse commercial investment risks further instrumentalising EU development policy. Specific measures are therefore needed to safeguard and promote the principles that the EU and its member states have committed themselves to. |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:diebps:12022&r= |
| By: | Vesa Kanniainen |
| Abstract: | The paper asks whether the exercising of the NATO membership option is justified for Finland and Sweden in the light of their geopolitical state after Russia’s attack on Ukraine. It was the Gallup democracy, which launched the political moves towards the membership. In both countries, the majority of people turned to favor the membership within 2-3 months. Finland activated first. Sweden was fast in catching up with the Finnish process. The theory of option pricing is employed to analyze the optimal timing of exercising the option when the uncertainty regarding the value of the membership is rapidly diluting. The Turkish intervention in the membership process after the membership applications of Finland and Sweden were delivered suggests a bargaining phase once the application is delivered. Finally, the effects of the Gallup surveys on the political equilibrium are analyzed in a voter-politician model. |
| Keywords: | Gallup democracy, defense alliance, option value of membership |
| JEL: | D72 D74 H56 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9876&r= |