|
on Confederation of Independent States |
| By: | Nölke, Andreas |
| Abstract: | The sixth sanction package of the European Union in the context of the aggression against Ukraine excludes Sberbank, the largest Russian bank, from the SWIFT network. The increasing use of SWIFT as a tool for sanctions stimulates the rollout of alternative payment information systems by the governments of Russia and China. This policy white paper informs about the alternatives at hand, as well as their advantages and disadvantages. Careful reflection about these issues is particularly important, given the call for an "Economic Article 5" tabled for the next NATO meeting. Finally, the white paper highlights the need for institutional reforms, if policymakers decide to return SWIFT to the status of a global public good after the war. |
| Keywords: | Ukraine,Russia,Sanctions,SWIFT |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:safewh:89&r= |
| By: | Görg, Holger; Jacobs, Anna; Meuchelböck, Saskia |
| Abstract: | Russia's invasion of Ukraine has led to a sudden reassessment of political and economic relations with Russia, including financial and trade relations. This policy brief analyzes a new firm-level dataset for Germany to examine the involvement of German firms in the Russian and Ukrainian markets. We analyse the impact of the annexation of Crimea and related sanctions in 2014 and identify the degree and shape of vulnerability of German trade with respect to these two markets on the firm level. The firm-level data reveals that Russia and Ukraine have become less important as trading partners at both the extensive margin and the intensive margin. So far, recovery effects have been observed merely for German-Ukrainian trade. Within the group of firms trading with Russia and Ukraine, we see a clear heterogeneity, which in turn is reflected in individual vulnerability towards the affected markets. |
| Keywords: | Russia,Ukraine,Sanctions,War,Vulnerability,International Trade,Firms,Russland,Ukraine,Sanktionen,Krieg,Verwundbarkeit,Internationaler Handel,Unternehmen |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwkpb:ukrainespecial2&r= |
| By: | Andreas Kick; Horst Rottmann |
| Abstract: | The popularity of sustainable investments is unbroken and attracts investors and researchers alike. Modelling the properties of such ‘green’ firms, Pástor, Stambaugh, and Taylor 2021 consider a hedge against climate risks in their theoretical model. Likewise, it could be assumed that companies with high social scores might offer a protection against related events. On February 24, 2022 with the Russian invasion on Ukraine one of the biggest events imaginable came to pass. Using standard event study methodology we analyse if and how Refinitiv’s ESG-ratings, as well as the CO2 intensity, influence the cumulative abnormal returns during different event windows. We find that the abnormal returns of companies with high ecological scores are positively influenced in the pre and post-event window. However the effects are of no economical relevance. Therefore our results do not fully support the hypothesis of an ‘ESG-hedge’ against such an extreme event. If such an effect exists, it was superimposed by other properties accounting for stability and defensiveness. |
| Keywords: | abnormal returns, war, Ukraine, ESG |
| JEL: | G11 G14 M14 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9798&r= |
| By: | Jacques Fontanel (CESICE - Centre d'études sur la sécurité internationale et les coopérations européennes - UPMF - Université Pierre Mendès France - Grenoble 2 - IEPG - Sciences Po Grenoble - Institut d'études politiques de Grenoble) |
| Abstract: | Threatened by the enlargement of NATO and by the accession of former friendly countries to the European Union, Russia has engaged in a "special operation" against Ukraine, with a view to keeping this country in its zone of influence. For Vladimir Putin, Ukraine is part of the greater Russia, the two entities have a common destiny under the responsibility of Moscow. The military action, which did not deserve the name of war, had to be conducted quickly to remedy this accident of history and the domination of the United States and its satellite the European Union. The military fighting has shown the resistance of the Ukrainian people, but also the will of Russia to fulfill its objectives at any cost despite the expansion of economic, social and military sanctions decided against it, mainly by the Western powers. The conflict affects the interests of all the countries of the world, with sanctions on the Russian monetary and financial system, on the available international infrastructures, on the interrupted exercise for Russia of the "Most Favored Nation clause", on the Russian sales of gas and oil to European countries, on the exports of cereals which will be reduced both by the acts of war which limit the production and the maritime blockade in front of Odessa which prevents their routing. In the longer term, economic globalization and the monetary and financial system dominated by the United States could be seriously challenged. |
| Abstract: | Menacée par l'élargissemnt de l'OTAN et par les adhésions d'anciens pays amis à l'Union européenne, la Russie s'est engagée dans une « opération spéciale » contre l'Ukraine, en vue de conserver ce pays dans sa zone d'influence. Pour Vladimir Poutine, l'Ukraine fait partie de la grande Russie, les deux entités ont un destin commun sous la responsabilité de Moscou. L'action militaire, qui ne méritait pas le nom de guerre, devait être rapidement conduite pour remédier à cet accident de l'histoire et à la domination des Etats-Unis et de son satellite l'Union européenne. Les combats militaires ont mis en évidence la résistance du peuple ukrainien, mais aussi la volonté de la Russie de remplir coûte que coüte ses objectifs malgré l'élargissement des sanctions économiques, sociales et militaires décidées à son encontre, principalement par les puissances occidentales. Le conflit touche les intérêts de l'ensemble des pays du monde, avec les sanctions exercées sur le système monétaire et financier russe, sur les infrastructures internationales disponibles, sur l'exercice interrompue pour la Russie de la « clause de la Nation la plus favorisée », sur les ventes russes de gaz et de pétrole à destination des pays européens, sur les exportations de céréales qui seront réduites à la fois par les actes de guerre qui limitent la production et le blocus maritime devant Odessa qui empêche leur acheminement. A plus long terme, la globalisation économique et le système monétaire et financier dominé par les Etats-Unis pourraient être remis sérieusement en cause. |
| Keywords: | Russia,Ukraine,War,economic war,economic sanctions,international monetary and financial system,famine,NATO,Russie,Guerre,guerre économique,sanctions économiques,système international monétaire et financier,OTAN |
| Date: | 2022–06–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03693893&r= |
| By: | Nataliia Slaviuk; Tetiana Bui |
| Abstract: | As of summer 2022, the war in Ukraine has lasted more than three months, caused the deaths of thousands of people, and ruined the lives of millions. It has impacted the world economy and affected Ukraine severely, ruining industries as well as causing massive migration, a decrease in household income, and an increase in the budget deficit and government debt. As the war continues, it will deepen the negative effects on the economy. We think that one of the reasons for Russia’s aggression is Ukraine’s desire to integrate into the Western world and its economic development over the last years. We believe that joint efforts of the Ukrainian government, European institutions, and civil society will help end the war and rebuild the country. |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwrup:141en&r= |
| By: | Ержан Ислам // Yerzhan Islam (Payment and Financial Technologies Development Center); Кулкаева Алтын // Kulkaeva Altyn (National Bank of Kazakhstan) |
| Abstract: | Осуществление политики инфляционного таргетирования предполагает внедрение и постоянное совершенствование системы прогнозирования и анализа макроэкономических переменных, в частности инфляции. Перманентный прогресс направлен на улучшение качества проводимого анализа и повышение точности прогнозов экономического развития через улучшение прогнозных моделей, а также расширение понимания причин и структуры инфляционных процессов. В данной работе авторами были использованы различные статистические методы (тест на причинную связь: Грейнджер (подход Тоды-Ямамото), а также вейвлет анализ) для оценки влияния различных индексов цен производителей на потребительскую инфляцию в Казахстане. // The implementation of the inflation targeting policy involves the introduction and continuous improvement of the system of forecasting and analysis of macroeconomic variables, in particular inflation. Permanent progress is aimed at improving the quality of analysis and improving the accuracy of forecasts of economic development through improving forecast models, as well as expanding understanding of the causes and structure of inflationary processes. In this paper, the authors used various statistical methods (causality test: Granger (Toda-Yamamoto approach), as well as wavelet analysis) to assess the impact of various producer price indices on consumer inflation in Kazakhstan. |
| Keywords: | инфляция, индекс цен производителей, индекс потребительских цен, вейвлет анализ, причинно-следственная связь, inflation, producer price index, consumer price index, wavelet analysis, causal relationship |
| JEL: | E31 E19 E39 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aob:wpaper:30&r= |
| By: | Kim Oosterlinck; Ariane Reyns; Ariane Szafarz |
| Abstract: | How do major disruptive events, such as wars, affect the correlations between gold, Bitcoin, and financial assets? We address this question by estimating a dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) model before and during the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine. The results show that, after the outbreak of the war, the correlation between gold and stock markets dropped, confirming the diversification potential of gold during crises. The correlation between Bitcoin and oil declined as well. Meanwhile, the gold/Bitcoin correlation slightly decreased. Overall, our preliminary evidence suggests that gold and Bitcoin act as complements—rather than substitutes—for diversification purposes during international crises. |
| Keywords: | Bitcoin; Gold; Portfolio diversification; 2022 Russian invasion |
| JEL: | G11 G15 F65 E44 |
| Date: | 2022–06–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sol:wpaper:2013/345041&r= |
| By: | Feldhaus, Lukas; Westphal, Kirsten; Zachmann, Georg |
| Abstract: | Die Anbindung der Ukraine an das kontinentaleuropäische Stromnetz und den EU-Strommarkt steht auf der politischen Agenda. Die nötigen Stromverbindungen herzustellen ist jedoch technisch kompliziert und erfordert darüber hinaus tiefgreifende Reformen im ukrainischen Stromsektor. Aber nicht nur die Ukraine ist in der Bringschuld, auch die EU und ihre Mitgliedstaaten werden weitreichende geopolitische Entscheidungen von großer Tragweite treffen müssen. Für das Vorhaben bedarf es eines politisch abgestimmten Fahrplans, der klare Kriterien und Konditionen für ein gemeinsames Stromnetz definiert. |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpakt:722021&r= |
| By: | Stepan Bahteev (Ural Federal University); Sophia Turkanova (Ural Federal University); Andrey Pushkarev (Ural Federal University); Oleg Mariev (Ural Federal University) |
| Abstract: | The relationship between investment and cash flow has been extensively studied since the mid-20th century. The aim of our study is to assess the impact of Tobin's ratio and cash flows on the capital investments of Russian companies. For econometric estimation we data on 206 Russian public companies traded on the Moscow Exchange from 2011 to 2020. We apply quantile regression to obtain more detailed results. The results of our study confirm the significance of the Tobin ratio and cash flow on capital investments. We observe these effects in all quantiles however their magnitude varies. This research is valuable and can be utilized by companies to maximize efficiency of their capital expenditures. |
| Keywords: | Tobin?s Q, Russian firms, quantile regression, capital investments |
| JEL: | L25 M21 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sek:iefpro:12513370&r= |
| By: | Кожамкулов Канат // Kozhamkulov Kanat (National Bank of Kazakhstan); Хакимжанов Сабит // Khakimzhanov Sabit (National Bank of Kazakhstan); Миллер Алия // Miller Aliya; Агамбаева Саида // Agambayeva Saida (National Bank of Kazakhstan) |
| Abstract: | В рамках данного исследования проведен анализ факторов, влияющих на волатильность экспортных и импортных цен в Республике Казахстан, приводящих к дестабилизации внешнеторговых потоков товарами. Была разработана методология построения индексов экспортных и импортных цен. Динамика стоимости внешнеторгового потока разложена на составляющие: индексы цен и индексы физических объемов поставок. Индекс физических объемов поставок и пересчет индекса стоимостных объемов из доллара США в тенге позволили построить индекс внешнеторговых цен в тенге для сопоставления с индексом потребительских цен (ИПЦ). В конечном итоге, реализован аналитический инструментарий по индексам внешнеторговых цен с оперативным администрированием, не требующим финансовых затрат. Данный инструментарий позволяет оценить тренды внешнеторговых цен. // Within the framework of this study, the analysis of factors affecting the volatility of export and import prices in Kazakhstan, leading to the destabilization of foreign trade flows of goods, was carried out. A methodology for constructing export and import price indices was developed. The dynamics of the value of the foreign trade flow is decomposed into components: price indices and indices of physical volumes of supplies. The index of physical volumes of supplies and the recalculation of the index of value volumes from the US dollar to tenge allowed us to build the index foreign trade prices in tenge for comparison with the consumer price index (CPI). As a result, analytical tools for foreign trade price indices with operational administration that does not require financial costs have been implemented. This tool allows to evaluate the trends of foreign trade prices. |
| Keywords: | волатильность экспортных и импортных цен, индексы внешнеторговых цен, обменный курс, факторный анализ, условия торговли, обработанные товары, потребительские товары, инфляция, volatility of export and import prices, indices of foreign trade prices, exchange rate, factor analysis, terms of trade, processed goods, consumer goods, inflation |
| JEL: | C43 E31 F10 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aob:wpaper:31&r= |
| By: | Shagina, Maria; Westphal, Kirsten |
| Abstract: | Washington und Berlin haben ihre Differenzen über Nord Stream 2 beigelegt. Damit ist zunächst einmal die Negativspirale eines Energie-Sicherheitsdilemmas angehalten, in die das Projekt geraten war. Während die Biden-Administration ein klares Signal setzt, dass ihr konstruktive Beziehungen zu Deutschland wichtig sind, ist die Bundesregierung nun gefragt, die vereinbarten Punkte umzusetzen. Die Gaspipeline durch die Ostsee bleibt jedenfalls ein Politikum. Kiew und Warschau haben bereits deutlich gemacht, dass sie die deutsch-amerikanische Übereinkunft ablehnen. Ein 'Grand Bargain' über Nord Stream 2, der nicht nur bilateral abgestimmt ist, sondern auch die Ukraine einbindet und Russland verpflichtet, ist noch nicht erreicht. |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpakt:522021&r= |
| By: | Tony Chernis; Chris D'Souza; Kevin MacLean; Tasha Reader; Joshua Slive; Farrukh Suvankulov |
| Abstract: | The Business Leaders’ Pulse is a new online survey conducted each month. It is designed to provide timely and flexible input into the Bank of Canada’s monetary policy decision making while also creating a platform to analyze business conditions and uncertainty. Since May 2021, the Bank has been reaching out to leaders of almost all types of businesses across the country with this short questionnaire inquiring about their sales and employment growth expectations, the risks to their business outlook, and topical questions that address specific information needs of the Bank. This survey is designed to complement the Bank’s quarterly Business Outlook Survey conducted in person. The Business Leaders’ Pulse has already proven valuable in getting timely feedback from firms about the effects of a rapidly changing economic environment, including the impact of COVID-19 and the Russian invasion of Ukraine. It has also helped Bank staff assess the extent of and reaction to ongoing economic challenges, such as supply chain bottlenecks and labour shortages. |
| Keywords: | Monetary policy and uncertainty; Recent economic and financial developments |
| JEL: | C83 D22 E32 |
| Date: | 2022–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bca:bocadp:22-14&r= |
| By: | Mary C. Daly |
| Abstract: | Presentation at Shadow Open Market Committee Conference, Chapman University, Orange, CA, June 24, 2022, by Mary C. Daly, President and Chief Executive Officer, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. |
| Keywords: | covid19; monetary policy; inflation; Ukraine war |
| Date: | 2022–06–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedfsp:94421&r= |
| By: | Fischer, Sabine; Stanzel, Angela |
| Abstract: | Russland und China gelten als machtpolitische Profiteure des westlichen Abzugs aus Afghanistan. Sowohl im chinesischen als auch im russischen Diskurs werden aber neben triumphierenden Kommentaren zum westlichen Scheitern auch ernste Befürchtungen im Hinblick auf die regionale Sicherheitslage laut. Westliche Akteure sollten sich um ein differenzierteres Verständnis der Pekinger und Moskauer Perspektiven bemühen. Daraus könnten sich auch Möglichkeiten der Kooperation ergeben, die der Stabilisierung Zentralasiens und Afghanistans dienen. Angesichts des sich verschärfenden globalen Systemwettbewerbs wird der Spielraum für Zusammenarbeit jedoch begrenzt bleiben. |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpakt:592021&r= |
| By: | Zhao, Jing; Miller, J. Isaac; Binfield, Julian; Thompson, Wyatt |
| Abstract: | We use econometric models to study the links between the evolution of agricultural support for six agricultural commodities and economic development as measured by real income per capita. Each commodity has a panel dataset with around 30-50 countries including developed, developing and less developed countries over 1961-2011. We investigate more complicated nonlinear relationships between income and support as measured by Nominal Rates of Assistance (NRAs) than previously examined and employ fixed effects to capture heterogeneity across countries. We find that a significant relationship exists between income measures and measures of border protection, but that the link between income and domestic support is generally weaker. Using these estimates and projections of macroeconomic variables, projections of future agricultural commodity support are generated for Brazil, Russia, India, and China. The projections of economic measures of support are then be compared to the commitments made by these countries to the World Trade Organization (WTO). There is a clear distinction between actual policies in place, aggregate estimates of them (such as NRAs), and WTO notifications. We do not forecast WTO notification data but compare in a general way long-run trends in development and associated support to these countries’ multilateral commitments. We use the projections derived from the empirical models to discuss the drivers of agricultural support, how these might have implications for WTO notifications, and how these effects relate to WTO commitments. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, International Development, International Relations/Trade |
| Date: | 2022–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iatrcp:321785&r= |
| By: | Schmiedel, Lisa (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Kropp, Per (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Fritzsche, Birgit (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Theuer, Stefan (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany) |
| Abstract: | "Vor dem Hintergrund der bis zum Jahr 2045 angestrebten Treibhausgasneutralität in Deutschland untersucht die vorliegende Studie die Bedeutung der energieintensiven Industrien für die Beschäftigung im Mitteldeutschen Revier und in den mitteldeutschen Bundesländern (Sachsen, Sachsen-Anhalt und Thüringen). Hierfür werden die Entwicklung sowie die Beschäftigungsstrukturen der energieintensiven Industrien, ausgewählter relevanter Branchen und deren energieintensiven Bereiche aus unterschiedlichen Blickwinkeln analysiert. Dabei zeigt sich nur partiell eine erhöhte Konzentration energieintensiver Industrien im Braunkohlerevier. Zudem sind die energieintensiven Industrien insgesamt nicht die Treiber der Beschäftigungsentwicklung in der Region. Wir betrachten die Konzentration von energieintensiven Industrien in einzelnen Regionen, Wirtschaftszweigen oder Beschäftigtengruppen nicht als einen Indikator für die Gefährdung von Arbeitsplätzen in der Region, sondern als Hinweis auf die Notwendigkeit intrasektoraler Strukturanpassungen. Dies bedeutet im Zusammenhang mit der Energiewende und vor dem Hintergrund massiv gestiegener Energiekosten sowie der weiteren Risiken einer Energieverknappung durch den Krieg Russlands gegen die Ukraine die Entwicklung von energiesparenden Technologien und von Verfahren, die auf nicht-fossile Rohstoffe für die energetische und stoffliche Nutzung zurückgreifen." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku) |
| Keywords: | IAB-Open-Access-Publikation |
| Date: | 2022–06–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iab:iabrst:202201&r= |
| By: | Salim Refas (IZU - Istanbul Sabahattin Zaim University); Ezzedine Ghlamallah (CERGAM - Centre d'Études et de Recherche en Gestion d'Aix-Marseille - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - UTLN - Université de Toulon) |
| Abstract: | Despite considerable progress in the ratification and implementation of the 2030 United Nations Sustainable Development Agenda (SDG Agenda) and Paris Agreement under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (Paris Agreement) since 2015 the world has not committed enough resources to implement these two strategic agendas for humanity and achieve their crucial targets for the development of current and future generations. As the COVID-19 global pandemics started unfolding at the beginning of 2020, both the Paris Agreement and the 2030 Agenda were not on the track, and this was attributed to a large extent to the significant funding gaps for both agendas, especially for the most vulnerable countries. On the other hand, the recent economic crises (COVID-19 pandemics, 2008 global financial crisis) have profoundly disrupted the global economy and demonstrated the heightened vulnerability of the global financial and economic system to climate, health, financial or socioeconomic risks. Geopolitical events further challenged the foundations of the global financial architecture, in particular, due to unprecedented sanctions against Russia in the United States, the European Union, and allies, and the unexpected response of Russian authorities to these sanctions. In this context, the world is perceived as even more exposed in the short-term future to a major crisis, potentially far more reaching than the 2008 global financial crisis, a crisis that will arguably determine the fate of most vulnerable nations in the next decades. In this dual context of failed achievement of global agendas and heightened risks of major global financial shock, this paper addresses the positioning and potential evolution of the Islamic finance (IF) sector. In particular, the paper posits that despite solid growth in the last four decades, IF institutions have not adopted a clear strategy with regards to rapidly aligning with SDG and climate action agendas, or developing relevant mechanisms and policies to face external shocks of the magnitude expected with the unfolding global financial crisis and IF will therefore face an existential crisis when the major global financial shock occurs. The current global IF institutions are not equipped with the capabilities and resources to adopt packages of reforms radical enough to bring rapidly enough the sector back on track before the crisis hits. In consequence, the IF sector is likely to become marginalized in the short-term due to capital flight and institutional obsolescence and despite positive developments, sustainable or Islamic green finance remain constrained in their current infancy stage. The central idea of this paper is therefore that the best opportunity to develop a global Islamic green finance architecture that substantially contributes to building a better, greener, and more inclusive world lies in building a radically transformed Islamic economic system in the aftermath of the expected major shock forthcoming. Using the framework of shock theory, the paper argues that seven critical conditions (government stability, mass urban relocations, de-commoditization of consumption, state control over unsustainable industries, dematerialization of the economy through technology and state planning, large-scale reconstruction financing program tied to the mobilization of human capacities and natural resources and interventionist policy to salvage and consolidate the banking sector and transition to Islamic Green Finance) would best support this needed transition for the benefit of present and future generations. |
| Keywords: | Institutional obsolescence,Shock theory,Paris Agreement,Post-COVID-19 recovery,Sustainability,Climate Finance |
| Date: | 2022–05–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03685231&r= |
| By: | Paul, Michael |
| Abstract: | Auf dem 12. Ministertreffen am 20. Mai 2021 in Reykjavik übernahm Russland den Vorsitz des Arktischen Rates, den bis dahin Island innehatte. Am Tag zuvor hatte Russlands Außenminister Sergej Lawrow eine erste Zusammenkunft mit US-Außenminister Antony Blinken als konstruktiv bezeichnet. Allerdings hatte Lawrow den Westen im Vorfeld pauschal vor 'Besitzansprüchen in der Arktis' gewarnt; für jeden sei 'seit langem vollkommen klar, dass dies unser Territorium ist'. Aber was ist damit gemeint: der Nordpolarraum entsprechend dem neuen Antrag, den Russland im März 2021 an die Festlandsockelgrenzkommission gerichtet hat? Oder spielte Lawrow auf den andauernden Dissens um die Nördliche Seeroute an? Moskau will offenbar durch aggressive Rhetorik und gleichzeitige Dialogbereitschaft eine für sich vorteilhafte Lage in der Arktis schaffen. |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpakt:472021&r= |
| By: | Claire Giordano (Bank of Italy); Enrico Tosti (Bank of Italy) |
| Abstract: | As the global economy faces a new, sharp energy shock amplified by the war in Ukraine, this study analyses developments in Italy’s energy trade balance, both in the long run and from a comparative perspective, in order to appraise any noteworthy changes in the country’s external dependence. Using data from 1970 to 2021, the analysis shows that the country’s energy deficit peaked at almost 6 per cent of GDP in 1981 after the second oil shock at the end of the 1970s. In 2021, it amounted to 2.4 per cent of GDP, double that of the previous year; this value, which is relatively low from a historical perspective, is slightly higher than that of the other main euro-area countries. The geographical concentration of Italy’s energy imports, though declining over the past two decades, remains high, especially for natural gas. The 2021 deterioration in Italy’s cyclically-adjusted current account surplus is more than fully explained by the rise in energy import prices. |
| Keywords: | energy trade balance, energy import prices, current account balance, cyclically-adjusted current account |
| JEL: | F00 F18 O13 |
| Date: | 2022–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdi:opques:qef_696_22&r= |
| By: | Céline Antonin; Elliot Aurissergues; Christophe Blot (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po); Magali Dauvin; Amel Falah; Sabine Le Bayon; Pierre Madec; Catherine Mathieu; Hervé Péléraux; Raul Sampognaro; Mathieu Plane |
| Abstract: | L'activité économique mondiale a progressé rapidement en 2021 permettant de combler en partie la chute qui avait été observée en 2020. Pourtant, à peine remise de la pandémie de Covid-19, l'économie mondiale doit faire face à une nouvelle série de chocs. La résurgence de l'inflation observée à partir de l'été dernier en est le premier symptôme. Elle est d'abord liée à l'écart entre l'offre et la demande de produits énergétiques, ce qui a eu pour conséquence de faire grimper non seulement le prix du pétrole mais également celui du gaz et des biens alimentaires. Malgré l'amélioration de la situation sanitaire, le virus circule toujours entraînant des dysfonctionnements dans les chaînes de production. Il en résulte des difficultés d'approvisionnement qui alimente également les tensions sur les prix. Depuis février, l'invasion de l'Ukraine par la Russie est venue amplifier le risque d'un ralentissement économique mondial, en entraînant l'augmentation des prix énergétiques et alimentaires. Ce conflit s'accompagne de tensions géopolitiques qui ont fortement accru l'incertitude en raison des menaces d'extension du conflit ou d'escalade des sanctions. Ainsi, outre les ménages qui souffrent de pertes de pouvoir d'achat, les entreprises pourraient se montrer plus réticentes à investir au cours des prochains mois. |
| Keywords: | pouvoir d'achat,augmentation des prix,situation sanitaire,activité économique,économie mondiale |
| Date: | 2022–05–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03678387&r= |