nep-cis New Economics Papers
on Confederation of Independent States
Issue of 2022‒06‒13
twenty papers chosen by

  1. The war in Ukraine exposes supply tensions on global agricultural markets: Openness to global trade is needed to cope with the crisis By Glauben, Thomas; Svanidze, Miranda; Götz, Linde Johanna; Prehn, Sören; Jaghdani, Tinoush Jamali; Djuric, Ivan; Kuhn, Lena
  2. Republic of Moldova: Ad Hoc Review Under the Extended Credit Facility; Request for Augmentation and Rephasing of Access, Modification of Performance Criteria, and Completion of the Inflation Consultation Under the Extended Credit Facility and Extended Fund Facility Arrangements-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Republic of Moldova By International Monetary Fund
  3. Russia's Ruble during the onset of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in early 2022: The role of implied volatility and attention By \v{S}tefan Ly\'ocsa; Tom\'a\v{s} Pl\'ihal
  4. Failure of Gold, Bitcoin and Ethereum as safe havens during the Ukraine-Russia war By Alhonita Yatie
  5. Disruptive gratification: A thought-provoking impulse to pacify the Ukraine war By Pies, Ingo
  6. Angst ist kein guter Ratgeber - Wut auch nicht: Ordonomische Reflexionen zum Ukraine-Krieg By Pies, Ingo
  7. Republic of Kazakhstan: Technical Assistance Report-Scanner Data for CPI Mission By International Monetary Fund
  8. Научные представления о финансовой грамотности населения// Humanitarian and Socio-Economic Sciences Journal ISSN 2733-0931, no. 6(17) (November 30, 2021)/ Chief Editor V. Klevtcov /Open European Academy of Public Sciences : Tallinn, Estonia, 2021. P.91-101. By Kudryashov, Alexander
  9. Moral versus Ethik: Nachdenkliches zum Ukraine-Krieg By Pies, Ingo
  10. Wirtschaftsethik in Zeiten des Krieges: Ordonomische Reflexionen zur Theorie und Praxis der Konfliktlösung By Pies, Ingo
  11. Increasing Block Tariff Electricity Pricing and the Propensity to Purchase Dirty Fuels: Empirical Evidence from a Natural Experiment By Karel Janda; Salim Turdaliev
  12. The return of inflation: a bankerâs perspective By Robert Amzallag
  13. Potential for cooperation in the dissemination of renewable energy and natural gas among BRICS countries By Luciano Losekann; Amanda Tavares
  14. Sanctions and the Exchange Rate By Oleg Itskhoki; Dmitry Mukhin
  15. Price Effects After One-Day Abnormal Returns and Crises in the Stock Markets By Alex Plastun; Xolani Sibande; Rangan Gupta; Chien-Chiang Lee
  16. Model of Government Ponzi Games and Debt Dynamics Under Uncertainty By Vîntu, Denis
  17. Benefits of regional co-operation on the energy-water-land use nexus transformation in Central Asia By Enrico Botta; Matthew Griffiths; Takayoshi Kato
  18. Mongolia: Technical Assistance Report-High Frequency Indicators Mission By International Monetary Fund
  19. Sans billet retour pour le Rwanda ? Boris Johnson et Paul Kagame forgent des politiques migratoires inhumaines pour leur bénéfice mutuel By Kohnert, Dirk
  20. Une analyse macro et microéconomique du pouvoir d'achat. Bilan du quinquennat mis en perspective By Pierre Madec; Mathieu Plane; Raul Sampognaro

  1. By: Glauben, Thomas; Svanidze, Miranda; Götz, Linde Johanna; Prehn, Sören; Jaghdani, Tinoush Jamali; Djuric, Ivan; Kuhn, Lena
    Abstract: The war in Ukraine has aggravated existing tensions on the agricultural commodities market. Since late 2021, prices for commodities such as grains and vegetable oils have reached record highs, surpassing even the levels of the global food price crises of more than a decade ago. Now, the invasion of Russian forces in Ukraine has sent prices soaring even higher. This has above all affected import-dependent countries in the MENA region and sub-Saharan Africa, which rely heavily on Russian and Ukrainian wheat. Disruptions to exports from the Black Sea region and high prices are further destabilizing food security in these regions. However, global demand for wheat is expected to be met in the current marketing year since countries such as Australia, India and the USA will increase exports to fill the gap left by Russia and Ukraine. It is difficult to predict what will happen beyond this marketing year, as this will be determined by the development of the current conflict in addition to agricultural fundamentals in key supply and demand regions. Global food systems and competitive international trade structures, in particular, are key to dealing with crises and mitigating the risks of food shortages. That way, disruptions in some exporting regions can be compensated for by exports from another. However, this requires greater collaboration in international trade. Any calls to move towards a centrally planned economy or autarky are strongly advised against, as this would only be to the detriment of food security in the Global South.
    Date: 2022
  2. By: International Monetary Fund
    Abstract: The economy rebounded strongly from the pandemic recession last year while prudent macroeconomic management maintained robust buffers. But the war in Ukraine and the international sanctions imposed on Russia and Belarus have resulted in significant spillovers to Moldova, with implications yet to fully play out. At the outbreak of hostilities, FX market pressures triggered significant foreign currency interventions and bank deposit withdrawals, while dollarization has intensified. Moldova has received the highest per capita inflow of Ukrainian refugees (17 percent of the total population), of which about 100,000 refugees (4 percent of the total population) remain in Moldova. Driven by rising food and energy prices, inflation accelerated further above the target band.
    Date: 2022–05–13
  3. By: \v{S}tefan Ly\'ocsa; Tom\'a\v{s} Pl\'ihal
    Abstract: The onset of the Russo-Ukrainian crisis has led to the rapid depreciation of the Russian ruble. In this study, we model intraday price fluctuations of the USD/RUB and the EUR/RUB exchange rates from the $1^{st}$ of December 2021 to the $7^{th}$ of March 2022. Our approach is novel in that instead of using daily (low-frequency) measures of attention and investor's expectations, we use intraday (high-frequency) data: google searches and implied volatility to proxy investor's attention and expectations. We show that both approaches are useful in predicting intraday price fluctuations of the two exchange rates, although implied volatility encompasses intraday attention.
    Date: 2022–05
  4. By: Alhonita Yatie (BSE - Bordeaux Sciences Economiques - UB - Université de Bordeaux - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: This paper studies the impact of fear, uncertainty and market volatility caused by the Ukraine-Russia war on crypto-assets returns (Bitcoin and Ethereum) and Gold returns. We use the searches on Wikipedia trends as proxies of uncertainty and fear and two volatility indices: S&P500 VIX and the Russian VIX (RVIX). The results show that Bitcoin, Ethereum and Gold failed as safe havens during this war.
    Keywords: H56,Safe haven,Gold,crypto-assets,Russia,Ukraine,G15 War,G12,G32
    Date: 2022–03–23
  5. By: Pies, Ingo
    Abstract: This short text suggests that Germany and the European Union should generously welcome not only war refugees from Ukraine, but also Russian soldiers who have deserted. As a disruptive gratification, this would be a humanitarian contribution to asymmetric warfare and would support Ukraine's existing measures with credibility and resources.
    Keywords: ordonomics,business ethics,Ukraine war,disruptive gratification,Ordonomik,Wirtschaftsethik,Ukrainekrieg,Disruptive Belohnung
    Date: 2022
  6. By: Pies, Ingo
    Abstract: Dieser Artikel erläutert aus wirtschaftsethischer Sicht, wie das Zusammenspiel von Emotionalisierung und Moralisierung zu einem Diskursversagen führen kann, das dann ein Politikversagen nach sich zieht. Im Hinblick auf den Ukraine-Krieg und insbesondere im Hinblick auf die gegen Russland gerichteten Wirtschaftssanktionen wird diskutiert, wie eine vernünftige, auf Frieden abzielende Strategie des Westens aussehen könnte - und wie eben nicht.
    Keywords: Ordonomik,Wirtschaftsethik,Ukrainekrieg,Wirtschaftssanktionen,Antagonistische Kooperation,ordonomics,business ethics,Ukraine war,economic sanctions,antagonistic cooperation
    JEL: F13 F51 G38 H56 M14
    Date: 2022
  7. By: International Monetary Fund
    Abstract: The purpose of the mission was to assist the Bureau of National Statistics of the Agency for Strategic Planning and Reforms of the Republic of Kazakhstan (BNS) with continuing its modernization of the Consumer Price Index (CPI). This was the first technical assistance (TA) mission to Kazakhstan on scanner data (SD). The mission was delivered remotely.
    Keywords: product code; World Bank staff; A. data specification; scanner data; sample data; Consumer price indexes; Central Asia
    Date: 2022–05–13
  8. By: Kudryashov, Alexander (Open European Academy of Public Sciences)
    Abstract: За последнее десятилетие финансовая грамотность населения стала важным вопросом для правительства Российской Федерации. Финансовая грамотность имеет решающее значение для граждан, как эффективное знание для преодоления будущих последствий демографических изменений, прежде всего таких, как старение и низкие темпы воспроизводства населения, что, в свою очередь, находит отражение этого тренда и в развитых странах. Необходимость владения минимальными знаниями в области управления личными финансами также связано с усложнением финансовых рынков и распространением новых финансовых технологий. Финансовая грамотность является необходимым требованием обеспечения финансовой доступности, способствуя стимулированию экономического роста и улучшения благосостояния населения.Over the past decade, the financial literacy of the population has become an important issue for the government of the Russian Federation. Financial literacy is crucial for citizens as effective knowledge to overcome the future consequences of demographic changes, primarily such as aging and low reproduction rates of the population, which, in turn, is reflected in this trend in developed countries. The need to have minimal knowledge in the field of personal finance management is also associated with the complication of financial markets and the spread of new financial technologies. Financial literacy is a necessary requirement for financial inclusion, helping to stimulate economic growth and improve the well-being of the population.
    Date: 2021–11–23
  9. By: Pies, Ingo
    Abstract: Dieser Artikel reagiert kritisch auf die Forderung einer Gruppe namhafter Wirtschaftsethiker, Unternehmen sollten um ihrer gesellschaftlichen Verantwortung willen sämtliche Geschäftsbeziehungen mit Russland sofort und beinahe ausnahmslos unterbinden. Gegen diese Forderung werden drei Einwände geltend gemacht. Erstens ist unklar, ob eine solche Eskalation von Boykott und Embargo Leid und Tod in der Ukraine (und auch anderswo) vermindert oder vermehrt. Zweitens werden Unternehmen mit dieser Forderung überfordert, weil von ihnen nicht erwartet werden kann, das s sie unter Wettbewerbsbedingungen in der Lage sind, eine solch umfassende Kartell-Lösung zu organisieren. Drittens sollte Wirtschaftsethik darauf achten, mit eigenen Beiträgen die Spirale von Emotionalisierung, Moralisierung und Dichotomisierung realer Konfliktlagen nicht weiter voranzutreiben.
    Keywords: Ordonomik,Wirtschaftsethik,Boykott,Embargo,Ukrainekrieg,ordonomics,business ethics,boycott,embargo,Ukraine war
    JEL: F13 F51 G38 M14
    Date: 2022
  10. By: Pies, Ingo
    Abstract: Dieser Artikel versucht transparent zu machen, wie man gestützt auf das ordonomische Forschungsprogramm zur Versachlichung der westlichen Diskussion um den Ukraine-Krieg beitragen kann. Das Hauptargument lautet, dass das Beziehungsmanagement der antagonistischen Kooperation zwischen Ost und West strategisches Denken und Handeln erfordert und dass hoch emotionalisierte Diskurse die Fähigkeit der westlichen Politik ausgerechnet in dieser Hinsicht beeinträchtigen können. Wenn wir nicht aufpassen, leisten wir mit unbedachten Reaktionen auf eine kriegerische Aggression unserem Ziel einer dauerhaft friedlichen Koexistenz einen moralischen Bärendienst.
    Keywords: Ordonomik,Wirtschaftsethik,Ukrainekrieg,antagonistische Kooperation,Wirtschaftssanktionen,ordonomics,business ethics,Ukraine war,antagonistic cooperation,economic sanctions
    JEL: F13 F51 F52 M14
    Date: 2022
  11. By: Karel Janda (Institute of Economic Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University & Faculty of Finance and Accounting, Prague University of Economics and Business, Prague, Czech Republic); Salim Turdaliev (Institute of Economic Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic)
    Abstract: This paper investigates the relationship between the increasing-block-tariffs (IBT) for electricity, and the propensity of households to purchase dirty fuels. We combine RLMS-HSE, a panel household data, with the introduction of the IBT schemes for residential electricity in three experimental regions of Russia to analyze this relationship. Using differences-in-differences empirical specifications we find that the propensity to purchase dirty fuels has increased in the regions where the IBT schemes were introduced. Depending on the specification, and the type of household we find that the size of the increase varies from more than 3-percentage points to about 15-percentage points. This accounts for a roughly 70% increase, and a 90% increase respectively compared to the similar households in the regions that did not implement IBT pricing schemes for residential electricity. The empirical evidence from this paper suggests that the environmental benefits that result from the implementation of the IBT pricing schemes may be overstated if the possible negative environmental impacts of switching to more affordable, but hazardous energy sources by the population as a response to the tariff-shifts are not taken into account by the policymakers.
    Keywords: residential electricity pricing; increasing-block-tariffs; CO2 emissions; dirty fuels; transition economy; natural experiment
    JEL: Q41 Q48 L98 L94
    Date: 2022–05
  12. By: Robert Amzallag
    Abstract: The COVID 19 pandemic followed by the invasion of Ukraine is a two-punch economic strike never seen in recent history. The pandemic not only disrupted many aspects of a tightly knit integrated world but also exposed its fragility. The devastation of Ukraine and the sanctions quickly imposed by most major developed countries have accelerated the retreat of globalization. For many decades, Central Bankers and economists considered stable prices as an almost permanent feature. Today, the consumer price index in the US hit a 40-year high at more than 8 per cent and experts were unable to predict such course of inflation. In this paper, Robert Amzallag, CIRANO Invited Fellow, looks at these recent events in the light of the factors that have altered significantly and reliably inflation since World War II. Despite the dire economic challenges, the economy recovered quickly after the war. The financial imbalances rectified in only a few years and inflation was tamed. Can the same thing be achieved today? The author’s analysis suggests that this is highly improbable. Deep-rooted inflationary forces are at work because of the distortions that the economic order of the last 40 years has created. These distortions, exacerbated by the dual crisis of COVID 19 and the invasion of Ukraine, will take long to repair. La pandémie de COVID 19 et l'invasion de l'Ukraine ont créé un choc économique d’une ampleur jamais vue dans l'histoire récente. La pandémie a perturbé de nombreux aspects d'une économie mondiale tissée serrée. Elle a également mis en évidence sa fragilité. La dévastation de l'Ukraine et les sanctions rapidement imposées par la plupart des grands pays développés ont accéléré le processus de repli de la mondialisation. Pendant de nombreuses décennies, les gouverneurs des banques centrales et les économistes ont considéré la stabilité des prix comme quelque chose de permanent. Aujourd'hui, l'indice des prix à la consommation aux États-Unis a atteint son plus haut niveau depuis 40 ans, à plus de 8 pour cent, une évolution que les experts ont été incapables de prévoir. Dans cet article, Robert Amzallag, Fellow invité CIRANO, examine les événements récents à la lumière de ceux qui ont profondément marqué l’évolution de l'inflation depuis la Seconde Guerre mondiale. Malgré les graves difficultés économiques, l'économie s'est rapidement redressée au sortir de la guerre. En seulement quelques années, les déséquilibres financiers se sont corrigés et l'inflation a été maîtrisée. Est-ce qu’on aura un tel succès aujourd’hui ? Selon l’auteur c’est très improbable. Au cours des 40 dernières années, l’ordre économique a créé des distorsions telles que les forces inflationnistes sont maintenant profondément enracinées. Ces distorsions, exacerbées par le double choc de la COVID 19 et l’invasion de l’Ukraine, mettront du temps à se résorber.
    Keywords: Economic crisis,Inflation,Covid-19,War in Ukraine,Distortions, Crise économique,Inflation,Covid-19,Guerre en Ukraine,Distorsions
    Date: 2022–05–31
  13. By: Luciano Losekann (IPC-IG); Amanda Tavares (IPC-IG)
    Keywords: emissions; energy systems; energy transition; BRICS; sustainable development
    Date: 2021–05
  14. By: Oleg Itskhoki; Dmitry Mukhin
    Abstract: We show that the exchange rate may appreciate or depreciate depending on the specific mix of sanctions imposed, even if the underlying equilibrium allocation is the same. Sanctions that limit a country's imports tend to appreciate the country’s exchange rate, while sanctions that limit exports and/or freeze net foreign assets tend to depreciate it. Increased precautionary household demand for foreign currency is another force that depreciates the exchange rate, and it can be offset with domestic financial repression of foreign currency savings. The overall effect depends on the balance of currency demand and currency supply forces, where exports and official reserves contribute to currency supply and imports and foreign currency precautionary savings contribute to currency demand. Domestic economic downturn and government fiscal deficits are additional forces that affect the equilibrium exchange rate. The dynamic behavior of the ruble exchange rate following Russia's military invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 and the resulting sanctions is entirely consistent with the combined effects of these mechanisms.
    JEL: E50 F31 F32 F41 F51
    Date: 2022–04
  15. By: Alex Plastun (Faculty of Economics and Management Sumy State University, Sumy, Ukraine); Xolani Sibande (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Private Bag X20, Hatfield 0028, South Africa); Rangan Gupta (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Private Bag X20, Hatfield 0028, South Africa); Chien-Chiang Lee (School of Economics and Management, Nanchang University, Nanchang, China)
    Abstract: We investigate price effects after one-day abnormal returns during crises in US, Japanese, Chinese, Russian and Brazilian stock markets, using the ANOVA, Mann-Whitney, t-tests, the modified cumulative abnormal return approach, regression analysis with dummy variables, and the trading simulation approach. The results suggest that the momentum effect is the most typical case of price behaviour after the days with positive abnormal returns, especially in emerging markets in pre and post crisis periods. Interestingly the momentum effect in developed markets changes into contrarian during crisis periods. However, in emerging markets the momentum effect prevails even in crisis periods. However, the power of the detected effects is weak. These effects do not provide opportunities to beat the market and might result from prevailing positive returns in these stock markets.
    Keywords: Momentum Effect, Contrarian Effect, Abnormal Returns, Stock Market, Crisis
    JEL: G12 C63
    Date: 2022–05
  16. By: Vîntu, Denis
    Abstract: This study examines the effects of fiscal policy on the economy under uncertainty of public debt. Fiscal policy refers to the actions of government in collecting and spending private resources. As its title suggests, the paper is concerned with the dynamic aspects of fiscal policy. These include the effects of fiscal policies on capital formation, economic growth, and intergenerational equity; the influence of long-run expectations on short-run outcomes; and the restrictions imposed by current policies on the set of feasible future policies. Dynamic analysis has recently gained favor over static analysis in various fields of economics. It is particularly appropriate for the study of fiscal policy, which, at least in the Republic of Moldova, is frequently adjusted and altered. Such changes are often explicitly legislated in advance, but when not pre-announced they may often be surmised from current fiscal conditions. That fiscal variables are continually modified is not surprising. Current policy changes alter the course of the economy and invariably require additional policy changes in the future. But the anticipation of such future changes also alters current outcomes; indeed the current impact of fiscal decisions cannot be determined without considering the entire future time path of fiscal policy. A dynamic perspective is also crucial in weighting the short-run benefits of particular policies (e.g., tax cuts) against long-run losses (e.g., crowding out) and in evaluating the economic efficiency of alternative policies. Economic efficiency refers to the potential for improving the welfare of some segment of society without reducing that of another. Static analysis is ill-equipped to examine economic efficiency because it ignores a vast segment of society, namely, all future generations. Dynamic analysis considers both current and future generations and permits one to distinguish policies that truly improve economic efficiency from those that simply redistribute resources across generations.
    Keywords: WP; debt ratio; interest rate; output ratio; debt stabilization Debt sustainability; fiscal deficits; Ponzi games
    JEL: E60 H62
    Date: 2022–05–02
  17. By: Enrico Botta; Matthew Griffiths; Takayoshi Kato
    Abstract: The “energy, water and land use nexus” approach has been attracting attention of policy makers, development practitioners and academia in Central Asia as a tool to facilitate regional and cross-sectoral co-operation for climate action and resource security. However, further work is still needed to better understand economic and non-economic benefits of the nexus approach, and integrate it into policy processes in the countries. Based on desk research and consultations with stakeholders in Central Asia, this paper aims to highlight several possible action points for promoting the energy-water-land use nexus approach in the face of a changing climate in the region.
    Keywords: energy, land use, water
    JEL: Q01 Q15 R11
    Date: 2022–05–27
  18. By: International Monetary Fund
    Abstract: The IMF conducted a remote technical assistance (TA) mission from March 1 to 12, 2021, to help the National Statistics Office of Mongolia (NSOM) compile a monthly indicator of economic activity (MIEA). Experimental results describe monthly economic activity from January 2010 to January 2021 as well as the impact of the COVID-19. This second mission for developing the MIEA was funded by the IMF's Data for Decisions trust fund1 (D4D).
    Date: 2022–05–13
  19. By: Kohnert, Dirk
    Abstract: ABSTRACT & RÉSUMÉ & ZUSAMMENFASSUNG : Boris Johnson’s populist policy against immigrants and asylum seekers, dumped in detention camps in Rwanda, may not succeed because of legal constraints. Yet, his political agenda will probably work nevertheless, given the growing xenophobia among his electorate. Against expert advice, Home Secretary Priti Patel promised the autocratic ruler in Kigali, Paul Kagame, responsible among others for retribution killings of his army (RPF), to transfer an initial £120m to deter the migrants and to make them 'settle and thrive' in Rwanda. However, London would have to pay much more in the proposed 'economic transformation and integration fund' for the current cost. It is highly unlikely that Rwanda will be able to cope with additional immigrants as it is already struggling to accommodate its own more than 130,000 refugees. Moreover, in the past, also Denmark and Israel had tried in vain to execute similar policies to get rid of undesirable migrants and settle them in Rwanda and Uganda. Johnson's scheme reminded Britain's foremost historian of Nazi Germany, Sir Richard Evans, of Hitler's ploy to deport Jews to Madagascar. Thus, policies purported to aim at 'migration control' may not control migration, but reconfigure potential host societies along ethnic, racial, linguistic, and xenophobe lines. The burden of colonial heritage persists in attempts to reject 'strangers' through populist politics, culture and public discourse. This policy was revived and adjusted in the post-Brexit era, as exemplified by the preferential treatment given to Ukrainian migrants. Racism works best when it's overtly selective. Treating some migrants as “worthy” and others as “undeserving” avoids accusations of racism. It allows racist voters to be fooled into believing that they are personally virtuous while secretly or unconsciously indulging their basest instincts. RÉSUMÉ : La politique populiste de Boris Johnson contre les immigrés et les demandeurs d'asile, jetés dans des camps de détention au Rwanda, risque d'échouer en raison de contraintes légales. Pourtant, son programme politique fonctionnera probablement néanmoins, étant donné la xénophobie croissante parmi son électorat. Contre l'avis des experts, le ministre de l'Intérieur Priti Patel a promis au dirigeant autocratique à Kigali, Paul Kagame, responsable entre autres des meurtres en représailles de son armée (FPR), de transférer un montant initial de £120m pour dissuader les migrants et les faire « s'installer et prospérer » au Rwanda. Cependant, Londres devrait payer beaucoup plus dans le « fonds de transformation et d'intégration économiques » proposé pour le coût actuel. Il est très peu probable que le Rwanda soit en mesure de faire face à des immigrants supplémentaires car il a déjà du mal à accueillir ses propres 130 000 réfugiés. De plus, dans le passé, le Danemark et Israël avaient également tenté en vain d'exécuter des politiques similaires pour se débarrasser des migrants indésirables et les installer au Rwanda et en Ouganda. Le plan de Johnson a rappelé au plus grand historien britannique de l'Allemagne nazie, Sir Richard Evans, du plan d'Hitler de déporter les Juifs à Madagascar. Ainsi, les politiques censées viser le « contrôle de la migration » peuvent ne pas contrôler la migration, mais reconfigurer les sociétés d'accueil potentielles selon des critères ethniques, raciaux, linguistiques et xénophobes. Le fardeau de l'héritage colonial persiste alors que la politique populiste, la culture et le discours public cherchent à repousser les « étrangers ». Cette politique a été relancée et ajustée dans l'ère post-Brexit, comme en témoigne le traitement préférentiel accordé aux migrants ukrainiens. Parce que le racisme fonctionne mieux quand il est ouvertement sélectif. Traiter certains migrants comme « méritants » et d'autres comme « indignes » évite les accusations de racisme. Cela permet aux électeurs racistes d'être trompés en leur faisant croire qu'ils sont personnellement vertueux tout en se livrant secrètement ou inconsciemment à leurs instincts les plus bas. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ZUSAMMENFASSUNG : Boris Johnsons populistische Politik gegen Einwanderer und Asylsuchende, die in Ruanda in Internierungslagern inhaftiert werden sollen, droht an rechtlichen Zwängen zu scheitern. Dennoch wird seine politische Agenda angesichts der wachsenden Fremdenfeindlichkeit unter seiner Wählerschaft wahrscheinlich trotzdem funktionieren. Gegen den Rat von Experten versprach Innenminister Priti Patel dem autokratischen Führer in Kigali, Paul Kagame, der unter anderem für die Vergeltungsmorde seiner Armee (RPF) verantwortlich ist, eine Anfangsfinanzierung von £120m, um Migranten abzuschrecken und sie dazu zu bringen, sich in Ruanda ‚niederzulassen und zu gedeihen‘. Allerdings müsste London für die laufenden Kosten deutlich mehr in den vorgeschlagenen „Fonds für wirtschaftliche Transformation und Integration“ einzahlen. Es ist höchst unwahrscheinlich, dass Ruanda mit zusätzlichen Einwanderern fertig wird, da es bereits Schwierigkeiten hat, seine eigenen 130.000 Flüchtlinge unterzubringen. Darüber hinaus hatten Dänemark und Israel in der Vergangenheit ebenfalls erfolglos versucht, eine ähnliche Politik durchzuführen, um unerwünschte Migranten loszuwerden und sie in Ruanda und Uganda anzusiedeln. Johnsons Plan erinnerte den führenden britischen Historiker von Nazi-Deutschland, Sir Richard Evans, an Hitlers Plan, Juden nach Madagaskar zu deportieren. Daher kann eine Politik, die angeblich auf „Migrationskontrolle“ abzielt, die Migration möglicherweise nicht kontrollieren, sondern potenzielle Aufnahmegesellschaften entlang ethnischer, rassischer, sprachlicher und fremdenfeindlicher Linien neu konfigurieren. Die Last des kolonialen Erbes besteht fort im Bestreben, „Außenseiter“ durch populistische Politik, Kultur und öffentlichen Diskurs abzuweisen. Diese Politik wurde in der Post-Brexit-Ära wiederbelebt und angepasst, wie das Beispiel der bevorzugten Behandlung ukrainischer Migranten zeigt. Denn Rassismus funktioniert am besten, wenn er offen selektiv ist. Einige Migranten als „würdig“ und andere als „unwürdig“ zu behandeln, vermeidet den Vorwurf des Rassismus. Es ermöglicht rassistischen Wählern glauben zu machen, dass sie persönlich tugendhaft sind, während sie heimlich oder unbewusst ihren niedrigsten Instinkte frönen.
    Keywords: Grande-Bretagne, Rwanda, immigration, réfugiés, migration africaine vers la Grande-Bretagne, études postcoloniales, consolidation de la paix, politiques identitaire, nationalisme, xénophobie, discrimination, pauvreté africaine, famine, Afrique subsaharienne, droits de l'homme, Boris Johnson, Paul Kagame
    JEL: E24 E26 E61 F22 F24 F35 F52 F54 F66 J46 J61 J71 K37 N17 N37 N47 N97 P16 Z13
    Date: 2022–05–17
  20. By: Pierre Madec (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po); Mathieu Plane (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po); Raul Sampognaro (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)
    Abstract: Au cours des trois dernières décennies, le pouvoir d'achat du revenu disponible brut par unité de consommation a crû en moyenne de 0,95 % par an pour un gain réel moyen de l'ordre de 300 euros. La période du quinquennat d'E. Macron se caractérise par des gains positifs (+ 0,9 % par an en moyenne), un rythme comparable à celui observé au cours des trente dernières années. Ces gains sont liés à la fois liés à la hausse des revenus primaires (issus du travail et du patrimoine) mais aussi aux évolutions du système socio-fiscal. L'évolution des prélèvements fiscaux et sociaux directs sur les ménages ont contribué positivement au revenu mais a eu pour conséquence un accroissement du déficit public structurel. Nous évaluons l'impact redistributif statique au premier degré des mesures socio-fiscales pérennes issues des lois de finances de 2018 à 2022. En euros par unité de consommation, le bilan redistributif du quinquennat reste marqué par la réforme de la fiscalité du capital mise en oeuvre en 2018 mais de nombreuses mesures ont profité aux ménages du milieu de la distribution des niveaux de vie. En pourcentage du niveau de vie, la quasi-totalité des vingtièmes de niveau de vie ont vu leur revenu disponible s'accroitre de plus de 2% sous le seul effet des mesures socio-fiscales et ce sont les ménages du milieu de la distribution qui auraient le plus profité des réformes socio-fiscales. Ce diagnostic en analyse statistique est incomplet car il n'intègre pas les effets dynamiques de l'économie. Entre la fin 2017 et la fin 2021, plus d'un million d'emplois ont été créés. Selon nos calculs, la hausse de l'emploi de l'ordre 3% sur la période 2017-2021, augmenterait de 2,4% la masse salariale versée – à mode de formation des salaires inchangé. Le premier dixième de niveau de vie aurait vu son niveau d'emploi s'accroitre de 4,7% au cours de la période 2017-2021 et sa masse salariale perçue de 3,7%. Dans le haut de la distribution des niveaux de vie, l'emploi aurait progressé de 3,1% et la masse salariale de 2,8%. Au total, selon nos estimations, les 10% des ménages les plus modestes ont vu leur revenu disponible soutenu par l'amélioration du marché du travail, la baisse des cotisations sociales et la hausse des transferts monétaires. Les ménages du milieu de la distribution, malgré une contribution légèrement négative des revenus primaires, ont quant à eux profiter de la baisse des impôts et de cotisations sociales. Ces ménages seraient ceux ayant connu la plus forte augmentation du pouvoir d'achat sur la période. En euros par unité de consommation, la forte concentration des revenus du patrimoine dans le haut de la distribution, observée à la suite de la réforme de la fiscalité du capital, a largement soutenu le niveau de vie réel des ménages appartenant au dernier dixième de la distribution. En bas de la distribution, les ménages du premier dixième auraient vu, selon nos estimations, leur pouvoir d'achat s'accroitre de plus de 600 euros par unité de consommation sur l'ensemble du quinquennat soit un gain de près de 6 % et près de 2 fois supérieur en pourcentage à celui du dernier décile mais un montant en euros près de quatre fois inférieur au gain enregistré par le dernier dixième de niveau de vie. En termes de pouvoir d'achat, l'année 2021 a été marquée par le retour de l'inflation, liée en grande partie à sa composante énergétique. D'après notre évaluation, les pertes de pouvoir d'achat liées au choc inflationniste seraient comprises entre 0,5 % et 0,8 % et 60 % des ménages auraient subi des pertes de pouvoir d'achat du fait du surplus d'inflation. En revanche, au moins un tiers des ménages seraient bien compensées grâce à l'indemnité inflation et le renforcement du chèque énergie. Dans le détail, nous constatons que le premier dixième de niveau de vie ne voit pas son pouvoir d'achat amputé en 2021. En revanche, les autres dixièmes de niveau de vie perdraient du pouvoir d'achat et elles seraient maximales pour les dixièmes se situant autour de la médiane. Suite à l'invasion de l'Ukraine, il semble évident que l'année 2022 restera marquée par de fortes pressions sur le prix des matières premières. La question de l'inflation restera prégnante dans le débat.
    Date: 2022–03

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