nep-cis New Economics Papers
on Confederation of Independent States
Issue of 2022‒05‒09
thirty-one papers chosen by

  1. The signs of municipality backwardness and their relationship with the level of socio-economic development of the Far Eastern subjects of the Russian Federation By Elena Veprikova; Aleksandra Kislenok
  2. Do sanctions work in a crypto world? The impact of the removal of Russian Banks from SWIFT on Remittances By Farid Makhlouf; Refk Selmi
  3. The Features of Local Backwardness and its Implications to the Socio-Economic Development of the Russian Far East's Regions By Ruslan Gulidov; Dmitry Palazhchenko
  4. How important are Russia's external economic links? By Korhonen, Iikka; Simola, Heli
  5. Russlands Krieg in der Ukraine belastet deutsche Unternehmen By Bardt, Hubertus; Grömling, Michael; Schmitz, Edgar
  6. Cutting through the Value Chain: The Long-Run Effects of Decoupling the East from the West By Gabriel J. Felbermayr; Hendrik Mahlkow; Alexander Sandkamp
  7. 한-중앙아 수교 30주년: 경제협력 평가와 4대 협력 과제 (30th Anniversary of Diplomatic Relations between Korea and Central Asia: The Evaluation of Economic Cooperation and Four Major Cooperation Tasks) By Kim, Young Jin; Hyun, Seung-so; Lee, Jong Hwa; Jeong, Soomi; Sung, Jinsok; Lee, Sangche; Jung, Sunmi
  8. "Currency and commodity return relationship under extreme geopolitical risks: Evidence from the invasion of Ukraine". By Olga Dodd; Adrian Fernandez-Perez; Simon Sosvilla-Rivero
  9. Fiscal support and monetary vigilance: Economic policy implications of the Russia-Ukraine war for the European Union By Olivier J Blanchard; Jean Pisani-Ferry
  10. Trade Corridors in the Caspian Region: Present and Future By Kalyuzhnova, Yelena; Pomfret, Richard
  12. Russia's government budget swings around elections and recessions By Korhonen, Vesa
  13. Middle Corridor—Policy Development and Trade Potential of the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route By Kenderdine, Tristan; Bucsky, Peter
  14. The world market for horticultural lighting By Aurelio Volpe; Sara Banfi
  15. Wirtschaftliche Effekte des Krieges in der Ukraine: Ausgangslage und Übertragungswege By Grömling, Michael
  16. Wie der russische Cyberkrieg deutsche Unternehmen bedroht By Demary, Vera
  17. Conditions influencing the change of defense budgets - the case of Lithuania By Gediminas Dubauskas
  18. Technology Transfer and Early Industrial Development: Evidence from the Sino-Soviet Alliance By Michela Giorcelli; Bo Li
  19. Methodology of analysis of the influence of the economic policy of the state on the environment By Natalya Andryeyeva; Oksana Nikishyna; Borys Burkynskyi; Nina Khumarova; Oleksandr Laiko; Hanna Tiutiunnyk
  20. Energiepreisanstieg infolge des Kriegs: Wer ist besonders belastet? By Beznoska, Martin; Goecke, Henry; Schröder, Bjarne; Schröder, Christoph
  21. Is the SIPRI estimate of military expenditure a reliable indicator of the power of states? By Jacques Fontanel
  22. FDI, technology & knowledge transfer from Nordic to Baltic countries By Arūnas Burinskas; Rasmus Holmen; Manuela Tvaronavičienė; Agnė Šimelytė; Kristina Razminienė
  23. The effects of natural resource extraction on household expenditure patterns: Evidence from Mongolia By Narantungalag, Odmaa
  24. L'industrie gazière : un secteur stratégique pour la Russie By Catherine Locatelli
  25. Les filières animales françaises face à la pandémie de Covid-19 By Vincent Chatellier; François Cadudal; Philippe Chotteau; Boris Duflot; Pascale Heydemann
  26. Russlands Relevanz für die Lieferketten der deutschen Wirtschaft By Kolev, Galina V.
  27. The impact of accumulative pension policy on welfare of individuals By Marika Khozrevanidze
  28. Russlands Bedeutung als Kraftstofflieferant By Puls, Thomas
  29. The impact of COVID-19 on the financial performance: a case study of the Lithuanian transport sector By Paulina Periokaitė; Nomeda Dobrovolskienė
  30. The Psychology of Mineral Wealth: Empirical Evidence from Kazakhstan By Elissaios Pappyrakis; Osiris Jorge Parcero
  31. Peculiarities of employee professional development in the world, European Union and Latvia By Valdis Jukšs

  1. By: Elena Veprikova; Aleksandra Kislenok (Federal Autonomous Scientific Institution «Eastern State Planning Center»)
    Abstract: The article is about the signs of local backwardness of territories, which consist in lagging behind in development from similar territories (neighbor territories), stagnation or degradation of the dynamics of economic indicators, limited resources for self-development. Special attention is paid to the analysis of conditions for the preservation of human potential as the main resource of territorial development. Based on the analysis of the socio-economic development of municipalities in the Far Eastern regions of Russian Federation, territories with the signs of backwardness were identified. The contribution and influence of municipalities on the indicators of socio-economic development of the region were assessed. The obtained results indicate the need to develop measures of differentiated state policy for different types of territories.
    Keywords: regional development policy, backward territories, indicators of backwardness, territorial development
    JEL: P35 P25 O15 O21 O38
    Date: 2021–12
  2. By: Farid Makhlouf (ESC Pau); Refk Selmi (ESC Pau)
    Abstract: Russia's invasion of Ukraine triggered a surge of calls for Western allies to completely sever Russia from the global financial system by disconnecting it from the SWIFT payment system. The sanctioning of large Russian banks, coupled with their severance from the SWIFT, will make it hard for banks to receive payments or act as intermediaries. The present note seeks to assess the impacts of the removal of Russian Banks from SWIFT on international remittances to and from Russia. Our results suggest that the economic sanctions imposed on Russia exert an immediate adverse impact on remittances. In the longer-term, there is definitely a high risk posed for global repercussions from this war and resulting sanctions; it seems unlikely their impact will be contained to one country's borders, especially if there is a risk of high inflation and tightening of global financial conditions. With Moscow becoming growingly closed off to the financial world, it appears that Russians are becoming increasingly active in the cryptocurrency market. But with the traceable nature of the blockchain and lack of liquidity, it may be difficult for Russians to use cryptocurrency to evade the bevy of sanctions placed on the country.
    Keywords: Remittances,War,SWIFT sanctions,Cryptocurrencies,Russia
    Date: 2022–03–06
  3. By: Ruslan Gulidov; Dmitry Palazhchenko (Federal Autonomous Scientific Institution «Eastern State Planning Center»)
    Abstract: The article is about local territories' backwardness features that entail lagging similar (neighbouring) territories, stagnation of economic indexes, and resource constraints for endogenous development. Special attention is paid to conditions for preserving human potential as the primary resource for the successful development of the territory. Based on the study of the municipal socio-economic performance across the Far Eastern regions of the Russian Federation, territories with the features of backwardness were identified. The contribution and influence of municipalities on the region's socio-economic development indicators were evaluated. The outcomes indicate the need to design and introduce special policy measures for different types of local territories.
    JEL: E22 H21
    Date: 2021–12
  4. By: Korhonen, Iikka; Simola, Heli
    Abstract: In this note, we review recent data concerning Russia's economic integration with other countries. We first analyze the general picture of Russia's economic integration with the rest of the world and the importance of foreign economic relations for the country. We then turn to China, an increasingly significant economic partner for Russia. The European Union remains Russia's most important trading partner and is by far the most important source of foreign direct investment to Russia as well as sources of other financing. China's importance to Russia has also increased, especially with respect to merchandise trade.
    Keywords: Russia,economic integration,trade,investment
    Date: 2022
  5. By: Bardt, Hubertus; Grömling, Michael; Schmitz, Edgar
    Abstract: Der Überfall Russlands auf die Ukraine hat spürbare Auswirkungen auf deutsche Unternehmen. Stark gestiegene Energiepreise stellen für eine Mehrheit der Unternehmen eine große oder sehr große Belastung dar. Fehlende Zulieferungen und mögliche Engpässe in der Gasversorgung folgen als weitere Risiken. Als Absatzmarkt und Produktionsstandort sind Russland und die Ukraine kaum bedeutsam.
    Date: 2022
  6. By: Gabriel J. Felbermayr; Hendrik Mahlkow; Alexander Sandkamp
    Abstract: This Policy Brief analyses the long-run effects of an economic decoupling between the political West (i.e. the EU, the US and their allies) and the East (first and foremost Russia and China). A decoupling of Russia from the US and its allies would have much more severe long-term impacts for real income in Russia (minus 9.7 percent) than in the US and its allies (minus 0.2 percent). The reason for the uneven distribution of costs lies primarily in Russia’s low economic importance compared with the US and its allies.
    Date: 2022
  7. By: Kim, Young Jin (Hanyang University Asia-Pacific Research Center); Hyun, Seung-so (Korea Institute for National Unification); Lee, Jong Hwa (Korea Information Society Development Institute (KISDI)); Jeong, Soomi (Korea Information Society Development Institute (KISDI)); Sung, Jinsok (Hankuk University of Foreign Studies Center for International Area Studies); Lee, Sangche (Korea Institute of Finance); Jung, Sunmi (Hanshin Eurasia Institute(HEI))
    Abstract: 2022년은 한국과 중앙아시아 5개국이 수교한 지 30주년이 되는 해이다. 최근 들어 4차 산업혁명의 진전과 중앙아시아 각국의 경제현대화 정책에 힘입어 중앙아시아 국가들의 경제 및 사회 구조에 대대적인 변화가 일어나면서 한국과 중앙아시아 간 협력 가능성이 높아지고 있다. 본 연구는 지난 30년에 걸친 한-중앙아시아 국가 간 경제협력의 성과를 평가하고, 미래 유망 협력분야로 ① 디지털 ② 신재생에너지 ③ 금융 ④ 보건의료 분야를 4대 협력분야로 선정하여 각 협력분야에 대한 심도 있는 분석과 정책 방안을 제시하였다. Central Asia refers to five countries: Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan, which became independent after the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991. The Region, located in the heart of the Eurasian continent, is attracting attention as a key promising participant for regional integration projects of major powers, and is the site of fierce geopolitical competition between Russia, China and the United States. Central Asian economies which are dependent on the export of energy resources such as oil and natural gas, are diversifying their industrial structure through policies to encourage manufacturing industry in line with the transition to a global carbon-neutral era, and are implementing policies to expand the development of new and renewable energy. In addition, as non-face-to-face activities have become normal due to the COVID-19 crisis, digital transformation including ICT industry is accelerating in Central Asia, where population density is low. 2022 marks the 30th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic ties between Korea and the five Central Asian countries. Korea has grown into an important import partner in Central Asia over the past 30 years. According to the official statistics of each country in 2020, Korea is the third largest importer of Kazakhstan, the fourth largest importer of Uzbekistan, and the seventh and ninth largest importer of remaining three Central Asian countries. On the other hand, Central Asia is not a major trading partner for Korea, as it accounts for less than 1% of Korea’s total exports and imports. Trade items between Korea and Central Asia are also limited to some items due to differences in economic structure and economic development. However, the possibility of cooperation between Korea and Central Asia is increasing as the 4th Industrial Revolution and economic modernization policies of Central Asian countries have led to major changes in economic and social structures of Central Asian countries. (the rest omitted)
    Keywords: Korea; India; CEPA; SMEs
    Date: 2021–12–27
  8. By: Olga Dodd (Finance Department, Faculty of Business Economics and Law, Auckland University of Technology, New Zealand.); Adrian Fernandez-Perez (Finance Department, Faculty of Business Economics and Law, Auckland University of Technology, New Zealand.); Simon Sosvilla-Rivero (Complutense Institute for International Studies, Universidad Complutense de Madrid. 28223 Madrid, Spain.)
    Abstract: We examine the relationship between currency and commodity returns around the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. We find that the expected positive contemporaneous relationship between currency and commodity returns reverses and becomes negative during this period of extreme geopolitical risks. In addition to commodity returns, currency returns around the invasion of Ukraine are significantly affected by geopolitical factors, particularly geographic distance to the war. Our results indicate that a war between two major commodity-exporting countries significantly affects global currency pricing.
    Keywords: Foreign exchange rates, Currency return, Commodity return, Russian invasion, Ukraine war, Geographic distance. JEL classification: F31, F51, G13, G14.
    Date: 2022–04
  9. By: Olivier J Blanchard (Peterson Institute for International Economics); Jean Pisani-Ferry (Peterson Institute for International Economics)
    Abstract: The economic shock from the war in Ukraine is forcing Europe to face difficult policy choices, according to Olivier Blanchard and Jean Pisani-Ferry. Governments must decide how best to soften the blow of higher energy and food prices, and how much to rely on debt finance. The European Central Bank must decide how to balance the fight against inflation with the need to sustain aggregate demand, in the face of decreases in real income. The authors analyze the impact of the war on the European economy, discuss the pros and cons of policy options, and call for coherence in balancing sanctions, fiscal measures, and monetary policy. They argue for the use of transfers rather than across-the-board subsidies and point to the room for debt finance. They show the potential role of tripartite wage agreement and also argue that monetary policy can remain on its current trajectory but be ready to adjust.
    Date: 2022–04
  10. By: Kalyuzhnova, Yelena (Asian Development Bank Institute); Pomfret, Richard (Asian Development Bank Institute)
    Abstract: The historical routes from the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and India to the Middle East or Europe ran north of, south of, and across the Caspian Sea. Since 1500, maritime transport has dominated trade between Europe and East Asia. Central Asia became an economic backwater, incorporated into the Russian Empire and later forming part of the Soviet Union from 1917 to 1991. Practically all the trade links ran north to the Russian Federation. In the 21st century, with the increasing significance of Central Asia as an energy producer, countries have constructed several oil and gas pipelines. However, for trade in other goods, new transport corridors opened up more slowly until, in the 2010s, the PRC–EU rail links began operating through Kazakhstan. We examine the establishment of new trade corridors in the form of pipelines and railway lines, focusing on trans-Caspian links. We also discuss the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on international trade. The disruption resulting from lockdowns and quarantine requirements has negatively affected maritime, air, and other types of transportation. The COVID-19 pandemic, coupled with substantially depressed energy prices, is putting additional financial pressure on the Caspian governments, which are struggling with the major medical challenges that the pandemic has created.
    Keywords: trade; Caspian region; Trans-Caspian International Transport Route; energy; oil
    JEL: F13 P25 P28 Q35
    Date: 2021–05
  11. By: Anatoliy Kostruba (Vasyl Stefanyk Precarpathian National University)
    Abstract: The sports order is formed, including a huge network of various institutions, organizations and regulators, cooperation and participation of public and private actors at various levels, and has its own judicial system, based on the International Court of Arbitration for Sport in Lausanne. At the same time, despite the integrity of the system of sports law and order in relation to public law and order, the internal organizational unity, in particular, the process of resolving disputes in sports relations is quite unbalanced. Issues of legal regulation of relations in the field of professional sports, their protection remain undisclosed, or disclosed in fragments. The existing normative legal basis is based on the provisions of three legislative acts, which do not provide the appropriate level of regulation. The above actualizes the issue of codification of sports legislation of Ukraine. This method of systematization of the legal framework ensures the elimination of gaps in the legal regulation of professional sports. In this aspect, the issue of borrowing the legislative traditions of related legal systems, among which the attention of France is paid, is relevant. The publication provides an overview of the French Sports Code in terms of research. The sphere of relations regulated by a codified act is determined. The substantiation of necessity of codification of the sports legislation of Ukraine is resulted
    Abstract: Спортивний порядок утворюється в тому числі величезною мережею різних інститутів, організацій і регуляторів, співпрацею та участю публічних і приватних суб'єктів різних рівнів, а також має свою власну судову систему, в основі якої знаходиться Міжнародний спортивний арбітражний суд в м Лозанні. При цьому, не дивлячись на цілісність системи спортивного правопорядку щодо правопорядку публічного, внутрішнє організаційне єдність, зокрема, процесу вирішення спорів у відносинах спорту досить розбалансовано. Питання правової регламентації відносин у сфері професійного спорту, їх захисту залишаються не розкритими, або розкриті фрагментарно. Існуюча нормативна правова основа ґрунтується на положенні трьох законодавчих актів, якими не забезпечується відповідний рівень регламентації. Наведене актуалізує питання кодифікації спортивного законодавства України. В наведений спосіб систематизації нормативно-правового масиву забезпечується усунення прогалин в правовому регулюванні відносин професійного спорту. В наведеному аспекті актуальним є питання запозичення законодавчих традицій споріднених правових систем, серед яких приділено увагу Франції. В публікації наводиться огляд Спортивного кодексу Франції в аспекті досліджуваного питання. Визначається сфера відносин яки регламентуються кодифікованим актом. Наводиться обґрунтування необхідності кодифікації спортивного законодавства України.
    Keywords: Kostruba,Civil law,lex sportiva,sports law,sports dispute,professional sports,self-regulatory organizations,sports federations,sports arbitration,sports legal relations sport code,codofocation,law
    Date: 2022–02–08
  12. By: Korhonen, Vesa
    Abstract: This policy brief examines the shifts in Russia's government budget flows around election times and economic recessions. The issue is intriguing as Russia has basically pursued a policy of maintaining budget surpluses. Indeed, the government budget sector has shown a positive net financial stock for many years – a rare achievement for almost any country. Large downward and upward shifts in revenue and expenditure have induced sizeable changes in the balance, although in recent years swings in budget revenues have decreased as non-oil revenue streams gained importance.The real volume of government budget expenditure increased strongly around election time a decade ago. Such spending accelerations faded by the election cycle of autumn 2016 to early 2018 and remained subdued around the Duma elections in autumn 2021. Counter-cyclical budget spending policies were implemented around the 2009 and 2020 recessions to contain economic harms. The stimulus focus was on social benefits and corporate subsidies. Russia's spending increases in real terms around the 2009 recession reached the mid-range of increases when compared to twelve European economies and the US. During the 2020 recession, Russia's increases were short-lived and fell short of the hikes in almost all 13 comparison countries relative to size of GDP, but not drops in GDP.
    Keywords: Russia,government budget,recession,election
    Date: 2022
  13. By: Kenderdine, Tristan (Asian Development Bank Institute); Bucsky, Peter (Asian Development Bank Institute)
    Abstract: The Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (TITR), known as the Middle Corridor, is a multilateral institutional development linking the containerized rail freight transport networks of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and the European Union through the economies of Central Asia, the Caucasus, Turkey, and Eastern Europe. The multilateral, multimodal transport institution links Caspian and Black Sea ferry terminals with rail systems in the PRC, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Turkey, Ukraine, and Poland. Trans-Eurasian and intra-Eurasian rail freight development remains fundamentally policy- and subsidy-driven on the PRC side, yet dependent on European Union demand-side drivers to create traffic flow volumes. The development of the Middle Corridor, though, is institutionally independent and potentially transformative for the economies of Central Asia, the Caucasus, and Turkey. We explore the institutional development of transport infrastructure and economic potential from three macroregional angles: policy- and subsidy-driven development, the Central Asia–Caucasus–Turkey physical industrial geography and political institution limitations, and lack of demand-side fundamentals from European Union market agents. The PRC’s supply-side-policy evidence suggests that growth in transcontinental containerized rail transport is politically feasible. However, demand-side factors suggest that trade development potential is largely limited to greater extraregional connectivity from the Middle Corridor economies with little economic rationale for increased PRC–Europe transcontinental freight flows.
    Keywords: transport policy; economic geography; geoindustrial policy; industrial policy; Eurasian economic integration
    JEL: B15 B27 B52 E02 E61
    Date: 2021–05
  14. By: Aurelio Volpe (CSIL Centre for Industrial Studies); Sara Banfi (CSIL Centre for Industrial Studies)
    Abstract: The aim of the Report The world market for Horticultural Lighting is to better understand the GLOBAL MARKET FOR HORTICULTURAL LIGHTING, its competitive landscape, and the new opportunities arising from the growth of the agritech business. Horticulture lighting is a technology that stimulates photosynthesis in plants by emitting suitable wavelength. The scope of the analysis includes different types of horticulture lighting installations: Top lighting, Vertical farming, Interlighting (intracanopy lighting). These lighting systems playing several roles in plant growth: supplemental lighting, photoperiodic lighting, and sole-source lighting. The analysis has been based on a mixed METHODOLOGY, combining primary and secondary research: Desk research. The desk research will include available data from CSIL database; web surfing; balance-sheets and related international databases; collected statistics (Eurostat, IMF, World Bank, etc). Field analysis. Direct interviews with industry testimonials. The GEOGRAPHICAL CLASSIFICATION is as follows: North America: United States and Canada; Latin America: Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Venezuela; Europe: Austria, Belgium (including Luxembourg), Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, and United Kingdom; CSI countries: Belarus, Kazakhstan, Russia, Serbia, Turkey, and Ukraine; Asia-Pacific: Australia, China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Japan, New Zealand, Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, Vietnam; Middle East: Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Tunisia, United Arab Emirates; Rest of the world: remaining countries. The Report provides estimates 2018-2020 and FORECASTS 2021-2023 of Total and LED-based consumption of horticultural lighting fixtures at global level and broken down by geographical area. The horticultural lighting fixtures DEMAND is broken down by Light Source (Conventional and LED) and by Application (Greenhouses, Indoor and Vertical Farming, and Others, which include R&D, animal barns, and aquaculture). The Cannabis business encompasses both the Greenhouse segment and the Indoor and vertical farming segment, therefore is treated as a separate section. The Distribution Channels and Reference Prices are examined. The Technological Evolution of the horticultural lighting industry is provided by analysing Intellectual Property (IP) applications. The competitive system analyses the main companies active in the horticultural lighting fixtures market are reported with data on sales, market shares, and short company profiles. The main Market Drivers (food demand and population dynamics, climate change and weather uncertainty, and cannabis legislation evolution) together with the Other Players operating in the agritech industry complete the study.
    JEL: L11 L22 L68
    Date: 2021–09
  15. By: Grömling, Michael
    Abstract: Der Krieg in der Ukraine schafft neue und verschärft bestehende Anpassungslasten für die gesamte Volkswirtschaft. Im folgenden Beitrag werden Orientierungspunkte für die ökonomischen Auswirkungen des Krieges auf die deutsche Wirtschaft aufgezeigt. Diese Effekte hängen von den politischen Konstellationen ab, die sich in den kommenden Wochen oder Monaten abzeichnen werden. Zunächst wird die Ausgangslage für die mit dem Krieg in der Ukraine einhergehenden wirtschaftlichen Herausforderungen dargelegt. Auch ohne die infolge des Krieges in der Ukraine neu auftretenden Verunsicherungen und Störungen auf der Angebots- und Nachfrageseite der Volkswirtschaft hat die bisherige wirtschaftliche Dynamik nach dem starken Wirtschaftseinbruch im Gefolge der Corona-Pandemie noch nicht ganz ausgereicht, um in Deutschland auf das Vorkrisenniveau zurückzukehren. Die kumulativen Angebotsbelastungen schlagen sich seit geraumer Zeit in der Preisentwicklung nieder und haben dem Thema Stagflation eine hohe Aufmerksamkeit verliehen. Der Krieg in der Ukraine setzt somit auf ein makroökonomisches Umfeld auf, das von Produktionsproblemen und hohen Preisanstiegen geprägt ist. Um eine Orientierung dafür zu bekommen, über welche Transmissionskanäle die Unternehmen in Deutschland aufgrund des Krieges in der Ukraine beeinträchtigt werden, hat das Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft unmittelbar nach Ausbruch des russischen Einmarschs begonnen, Unternehmen zu befragen. Die Befragungsergebnisse signalisieren, dass die größten Anpassungslasten über stark ansteigende Preise - auf der Produzentenebene und daraus abgeleitet auch auf der Konsumebene - stattfinden werden. Aber auch ausbleibende Gaslieferungen und Vorleistungsengpässe können die Produktionsprozesse erheblich beeinträchtigen. Mittelfristig werden diese Gefahren sogar höher eingeschätzt. Vor diesem Hintergrund werden die möglichen Auswirkungen des Krieges auf die Konsum- und Investitionstätigkeit in Deutschland diskutiert.
    Keywords: Konjunktur,Arbeitsteilung,Inflation,internationaler Konflikt
    JEL: C82 E31 E32 F51
    Date: 2022
  16. By: Demary, Vera
    Abstract: Der russische Angriff auf die Ukraine fand schon lange vor dem aktuellen Angriff auf dem Boden, dem Wasser und in der Luft im Netz statt: Der Konflikt ist auch ein Cyberkrieg mit umfassenden Cyberangriffen. Dies kann sich auch auf deutsche Unternehmen auswirken.
    Date: 2022
  17. By: Gediminas Dubauskas (General Jonas Žemaitis Military Academy of Lithuania)
    Abstract: During the so-called Cold War the financing of the defense budget was widely discussed. The issue of financing the defense budget was widely discussed during the arms race. Since the end of the Cold War, armed conflicts have become more complex, and their causes are even more diverse than during the Cold War. They were caused by the deterioration of inter-ethnic divisions, hybrid and cyber wars over energy resources and the activities of terrorist groups. Due to the changing security dimension, a new study was conducted examining the determinants of defense spending in a changing security environment: the creation of new islands in the South China Sea to expand China's military-political power in the region; the possibility of using North Korea's nuclear energy. weapons, Russia's military maneuver in the conflict in Ukraine, its naval operation in the Black Sea, the occupation of Crimea, military operations in Syria, a change in U.S. military doctrine. The state that has spent the most military spending is returning to the creation of large military units, and to do so, the country needs to increase defense spending. Looking at how these world events work, we see one component that connects them. Strong force, expressed in military action, is used to achieve their political goals. Military power is gaining more and more influence in the formation of foreign policy, therefore the defense budget, as an instrument of foreign policy expressed in military power, is becoming an increasingly relevant object of research. Lithuania's defense budget is not as important to world politics as the United States, China or other major countries in the world, but it is relevant and significant in its region. Expenditures on the Lithuanian military budget began to increase significantly by two thousand and fourteen. It can be argued that the factor that has now influenced cost growth is Russia's military aggression in Ukraine. Nevertheless, in 2008 Russia's aggression in Georgia did not affect the growth of Lithuania's defense budget. 2008 The economic crisis may have influenced Lithuania's decision not to increase military spending. Some pressure on the country's defense budget is also related to the 2020 Pandemic crisis. The question arises as to why seemingly similar conflicts affect Lithuanian political decisions differently.
    Keywords: North Atlantic Treaty Organization,Defence Spending,Sustainability,Security,Financial Management
    Date: 2021–06–30
  18. By: Michela Giorcelli; Bo Li
    Abstract: This paper studies the causal effect of technology and knowledge transfers on early industrial development. Between 1950 and 1957, the Soviet Union supported the “156 Projects” in China for building technologically advanced industrial facilities. We exploit idiosyncratic delays in project completion and the unexpected end of the Sino-Soviet Alliance, and show that receiving both Soviet technology and know-how had large, persistent effects on plant performance, while the effects of receiving only Soviet capital goods were short-lived. The intervention generated horizontal and vertical spillovers, and production reallocation from state-owned to privately owned companies since the late 1990s.
    Keywords: industrialization, technology transfer, knowledge diffusion, China
    JEL: L20 M20 N34 N64 O32 O33
    Date: 2022
  19. By: Natalya Andryeyeva (Institute of Market Problems and Economic-Ecological Research NAS of Ukraine); Oksana Nikishyna (Institute of Market Problems and Economic-Ecological Research NAS of Ukraine); Borys Burkynskyi (Institute of Market Problems and Economic-Ecological Research NAS of Ukraine); Nina Khumarova (Institute of Market Problems and Economic-Ecological Research NAS of Ukraine); Oleksandr Laiko (Institute of Market Problems and Economic-Ecological Research NAS of Ukraine); Hanna Tiutiunnyk (Institute of Market Problems and Economic-Ecological Research NAS of Ukraine)
    Abstract: The methodological vision of the formation of the state economic policy, based on the needs of society sustainable development was proposed; the methodology for analyzing the impact of economic and environmental indicators of the implementation of the state economic policy, as an alternative to decoupling analysis was developed. Methodology. Methodological basis is formed by the convergence of four methodological approaches: methods of evaluation of indicators of "green" growth of the OECD; National System of Sustainable Development; methodological support for determining the economic and environmental priorities of "green" economy in the context of sustainable development; normative approach to the evaluation of parameters of economic safety of the state. Results. The proposed methodological support was approbated on the example of Ukraine in the period from 2010 to 2018. Practical approbation of the methodology allowed us to determine the cause-and-effect relationships between the dynamics of changes in economic and environmental indicators, positive and negative trends in the process of environmental transformation of economic policy. Value/originality. The original feature of the author's methodology is a logical and structural analysis of the main factors influencing the components of resource and environmental productivity of GDP and an extended diagnostic procedure.
    Keywords: analysis,diagnostics,sustainable development,indicators,environment,economic policy
    Date: 2021–06–30
  20. By: Beznoska, Martin; Goecke, Henry; Schröder, Bjarne; Schröder, Christoph
    Abstract: Der Krieg in der Ukraine hat den Anstieg der Energiekosten weiter beschleunigt. Je nach Energieträger stiegen die Kosten allein zwischen Januar und März 2022 zwischen einem Viertel und gut 80 Prozent. Dies führt zu nennenswerten Kostenbelastungen, von denen die einkommensschwachen Haushalte in Relation zum Einkommen mit bis zu 4 Prozent am stärksten betroffen sind.
    Date: 2022
  21. By: Jacques Fontanel (CESICE - Centre d'études sur la sécurité internationale et les coopérations européennes - IEPG - Sciences Po Grenoble - Institut d'études politiques de Grenoble - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes)
    Abstract: The analysis of military expenditure has always been a matter of debate, as to its content, its significance for national defence, the value of international and intertemporal comparisons, the quality of the figures provided and their suitability for econometric studies. SIPRI has undertaken new work to refine its conception of military expenditure, not taking over the work done by the United Nations for the construction of an information matrix on the national defence effort. In fact, precise knowledge of military expenditure is probably only of real interest for analysing its influence on economic variables. Military expenditure is first and foremost a cost for the public sector, which provides a security service whose effectiveness is difficult to measure in view of the sums involved. The content of armaments (nuclear or cyber warfare) is not really indicative of the quality of a country's defence. Thus, despite the crisis suffered by the Soviet military-industrial complex, Russia remains a great military power because of the threat of its nuclear missiles, which make it little subject to external attack. Similarly, despite the fact that its nuclear weapons are virtually useless in local theaters of conflict, the United States' military engagements in Afghanistan and Iraq have been failures.
    Abstract: L'analyse des dépenses militaires a toujours fait débat sur leur contenu, leur signification au regard de la défense nationale, l'intérêt des comparaisons internationales et intertemporelles, la qualité des chiffres fournis et la capacité de ceux-ci à servir dans le cadre d'études économétriques. Le SIPRI a engagé de nouveaux travaux, en vue d'affiner sa conception des dépenses militaires, en ne reprenant pas les travaux effectués par l'ONU pour la construction d'une matrice d'information sur l'effort national de défense. De fait, la connaissance précise des dépenses militaires n'est sans doute vraiment intéressante que pour analyser leur influence sur les variables économiques. Les dépenses militaires constituent d'abord un coût pour le secteur public, qui assure un service de sécurité dont il est difficile de mesurer l'efficacité eu égard aux sommes engagées. Le contenu des armements (nucléaires ou de cyberguerre) n'est pas vraiment significatif de la qualité de la défense d'un pays. Ainsi, malgré la crise subie par le complexe militaro-industriel soviétique, la Russie reste une grande puissance militaire par la menace de ses missiles nucléaires qui la rendent peu sujette à une attaque extérieure. De même, malgré l'arme nucléaire quasi inutilisable dans les théâtres de conflits locaux, les engagements militaires des Etats-Unis en Afghanistan et en Irak ont été autant d'échecs.
    Keywords: Nuclear weapons,Econometrics,National defence,Military expenditure,SIPRI,Cyber attacks
    Date: 2022–02–17
  22. By: Arūnas Burinskas (Vilnius Gediminas Technical University); Rasmus Holmen (Institute of Transport Economics - UiO - University of Oslo); Manuela Tvaronavičienė (Vilnius Gediminas Technical University); Agnė Šimelytė (Vilnius Gediminas Technical University); Kristina Razminienė (Vilnius Gediminas Technical University)
    Abstract: The purpose of this study is to examine the intensity of technology and knowledge transfer to the selected Baltic countries through foreign direct investment. The intensity of technology and knowledge transfer across the Baltic countries varies widely, with Estonia showing the leading position in the Baltic region. The amount of foreign direct investment in three countries is linked with the level of technology and knowledge transfer. It is indicated that during the Financial Crisis in 2008, the extent of foreign direct ownership changed in all three countries and later recovered. In the aftermath of this disruption, countries recovered their stock Foreign direct investment attraction rates and almost reached their 2004 level. Latvia has achieved a 50 per cent increase among Baltic countries, benefiting from it. Foreign direct investment and technology transfer increased through effective strategies and policies. In contrast, Estonia maintains a sustained stock foreign direct investment and has moderately lower margins than in other Baltic countries. Among countries, Estonia is the dominant stock FDI absorber in the Baltic region and have made significant contributions in the region.
    Keywords: FDI,Technology transfer,Knowledge transfer,Baltic countries,Nordic countries
    Date: 2021–09–30
  23. By: Narantungalag, Odmaa
    Abstract: This paper investigates the economic impacts of the mining sector on household expenditures. Employing the difference-in-differences model and the Mongolia Household Socio-Economic Survey data from 2008 to 2016, I find that the mining activities benefited local residents. Specifically, mining activities increase household expenditures on food, health, and electricity, respectively, while households reduce their expenditures on education and other non-food items. Interestingly, illness did not increase in the resource-producing region, while educational attainment improved. The findings highlight that the positive impacts of the mining sector are likely to be higher than what is determined by traditional welfare measurements of income and consumption. I provide some anecdotal evidence that the changes in household expenditure patterns can be due to increased availability of health care services and educational facilities in the mining region.
    Keywords: Mining,Natural Resources,Regional Economy,Economic Development
    JEL: L72 O12 O13 Q32 R11
    Date: 2022
  24. By: Catherine Locatelli (GAEL - Laboratoire d'Economie Appliquée de Grenoble - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes - Grenoble INP - Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes)
    Abstract: L'industrie gazière russe a joué un rôle central dans la transition économique russe. Mais les évolutions structurelles du marché mondial du gaz obligent ce secteur se réformer.Progressivement ce modèle tant à évoluer pour tenter de répondre à des marchés gaziers plus concurrentiels et plus volatils notamment en termes de prix ainsi qu'aux enjeux induits par la contrainte climatique.
    Keywords: Russie,Industrie du gaz naturel
    Date: 2022–02
  25. By: Vincent Chatellier; François Cadudal; Philippe Chotteau; Boris Duflot; Pascale Heydemann
    Abstract: Cet article propose une analyse de la situation économique de plusieurs filières animales (lait de vache, viande bovine, viande porcine, viande de volailles et secteur équin) en France, deux années après le début de la pandémie de Covid-19. En partant des dernières données statistiques disponibles sur la période 2020 à 2021 et tout en tenant compte des trajectoires historiques, il cherche à mettre en évidence en quoi cette crise a eu des implications sur la production, les prix, la consommation, les échanges extérieurs et, dans le cas du secteur équin, les différentes activités (paris hippiques, centres équestres, etc.). La production de biens agricoles a été globalement peu impactée par la crise sanitaire car les agriculteurs ont continué à produire, en dépit parfois de certaines difficultés telles que le manque de main d’œuvre, les pertes temporaires de débouchés, etc. Face à une modification importante de la structure de la demande (augmentation des produits achetés par les ménages au détriment de ceux privilégiés dans la restauration hors domicile), aux mesures soudaines imposées par l’Etat et aux difficultés parfois rencontrées pour maintenir les effectifs de salariés, les acteurs de la transformation ont été capables de s’adapter rapidement pour permettre de fournir aux consommateurs les biens demandés. Les flux d’échanges ont, eux aussi, été perturbés en 2020, avant de repartir à la hausse en 2021, selon des tendances finalement assez conformes à celles précédant la crise. Sous l’influence, d’une part, de la hausse du prix de l’énergie (avant même la guerre en Ukraine qui a débuté le 24 février 2022) et, d’autre part, de la fluctuation des importations de la Chine sur les marchés mondiaux de produits animaux, les prix à la production ont augmenté fin 2021 et début 2022, mais cette hausse est contrebalancée par une forte augmentation des coûts de production. Dans le secteur équin, les pertes de chiffre d’affaires ont été temporairement importantes en raison de l’interaction de ce secteur avec le public. Après le choc de 2020, et moyennant une adaptation des acteurs de la filière, les activités reprennent progressivement.
    Keywords: Covid-19, filières animales, lait, viandes, secteur équin, France
    JEL: Q13 Q17
    Date: 2022
  26. By: Kolev, Galina V.
    Abstract: Deutschland ist stark von Energieimporten aus Russland abhängig. Zwar kommen nur 2,7 Prozent der gesamten deutschen Warenimporte aus Russland. Doch die Abhängigkeit der deutschen Wirtschaft von Lieferungen aus Russland ist wesentlich stärker als die reinen Zahlen suggerieren, da Deutschland von dort vornehmlich Rohstoffe importiert, die am Anfang der Wertschöpfungskette stehen. Lieferausfälle können somit mehrere Produktionsstufen hintereinander stilllegen. Besonders betroffen wären energie- und rohstoffintensive Branchen wie die Chemische Industrie, die Metallherstellung, aber auch die Automobilindustrie und der Maschinenbau. Insgesamt entfällt im Durchschnitt pro 100 Euro Endnachfrage in Deutschland 1 Euro auf russische Wertschöpfung.
    Date: 2022
  27. By: Marika Khozrevanidze
    Abstract: Many countries around the world have had to carry out radical reforms periodically in their pension systems. Global experience shows that it is important to optimize the costs of pension and social security systems in order to ensure a decent old age in addition to reducing the pressure on budgetary resources. By Georgia is changing demographic situation, special attention is paid to proper functioning of the pension policy. The pension reform carried out in Georgia in 2019 caused a difference of opinion among experts. This issue in today is conditions does not lose relevance. The presented thesis discusses the impact of the mandatory funded pension system on the well-being of people. Thesis includes the following issues: peculiarities of the formation of pension systems in Georgia. It is presented a small historical excursion in terms of the development of pension systems. In addition, are discussed the international experience of pension systems and comparative analysis in relation to Georgia. This paper specifically focuses on the essence of the mandatory funded pension system and assesses the current situation in terms of investment potential of the resource accumulated in the pension fund. In conclusion, are presented the challenges of this system and the ways of perfection.
    Date: 2022–01
  28. By: Puls, Thomas
    Abstract: Russland liefert neben Erdgas und Rohöl auch große Mengen Dieselkraftstoff nach Europa. Diese Importe entsprechen fast 11 Prozent des Dieselverbrauchs im Straßenverkehr der EU27. Aber die nationalen Unterschiede sind groß. In einigen Ländern beträgt der Anteil russischen Diesels weit über 20 Prozent.
    Date: 2022
  29. By: Paulina Periokaitė (Vilnius Gediminas Technical University); Nomeda Dobrovolskienė (Vilnius Gediminas Technical University)
    Abstract: The changing global situation due to the outbreaks of COVID-19 is causing a crisis, not only in terms of healthcare but also in economic terms. Companies are faced with hasty decisions to avoid financial problems or even bankruptcy. Both in theory and practice, there are often more negative than positive effects of the coronavirus outbreak on transport sector business, but this topic has not yet been sufficiently explored due to the novelty of the situation and the divergent opinions of authors on some matters. The most significant impact is emphasised in the case of air transport, and the least studied area is road transport activity, which in Lithuania comprises the largest share of all modes of transport. It is observed that transport companies experience a decline in profitability indicators during the first wave of COVID-19. In the course of the investigation, the expert survey identified the most affected profitability and liquidity indicators of road transport companies. Relative financial indicators and a study of the financial results of coronavirus-related quarantine carried out using paired correlation analysis showed that there is an unequal connection between the number of days of quarantine in Lithuania and the relative financial indicators of road transport companies. Therefore, the crisis caused by COVID-19 is likely to have a positive or negative impact on the financial performance of a company, depending on the company's activity. However, in some cases, there may be no impact at all. The monitoring of the constantly changing coronavirus crisis and the corresponding economic situation is an important immediate and continuous participation in the monitoring and control of the financial situation of companies.
    Keywords: coronavirus,COVID-19,financial indicators,transport sector,road transport companies,economic crisis
    Date: 2021–12–30
  30. By: Elissaios Pappyrakis; Osiris Jorge Parcero
    Abstract: Despite rapidly-expanding academic and policy interest in the links between natural resource wealth and development failures (commonly referred to as the resource curse) little attention has been devoted to the psychology behind the phenomenon. Rent-seeking and excessive reliance on mineral revenues can be attributed largely to social psychology. Mineral booms (whether due to the discovery of mineral reserves or to the drastic rise in commodity prices) start as positive income shocks that can subsequently evolve into influential and expectation-changing public and media narratives; these lead consecutively to unrealistic demands that favor immediate consumption of accrued mineral revenues and to the postponement of productive investment. To our knowledge, this paper is the first empirical analysis that tests hypotheses regarding the psychological underpinnings of resource mismanagement in mineral-rich states. Our study relies on an extensive personal survey (of 1977 respondents) carried out in Almaty, Kazakhstan, between May and August 2018. We find empirical support for a positive link between exposure to news and inflated expectations regarding mineral availability, as well as evidence that the latter can generate preferences for excessive consumption, and hence, rent-seeking.
    Date: 2022–04
  31. By: Valdis Jukšs (Daugavpils University)
    Abstract: Within this study, employee professional development is conceptually understood as a component of lifelong learning. The concepts of lifelong learning, a learning society and even a learning economy are popular and theoretically justified as necessary prerequisites for the competitiveness and the economic performance of countries in the modern world. The problem is that Latvia (like most countries with low economic performance) is still not a learning societyespecially compared to the countries of the European Union. In this regard, it became necessary to empirically measure the economic importance of employee professional development in the modern world in order to justify the management of lifelong learning based on the economic paradigm. For an empirical interpretation of lifelong learning and employee professional development, the author used the Global Talent Competitiveness Index (GTCI) and indicators of the economic performance of the world's countries for the period from 2018 to 2020. Applying four methods of quantitative data analysiscorrelation analysis, regression analysis, comparison of means and discriminant analysis, the author proved the following: in the modern world, employee development is mainly a factor, but also an indicator of competitiveness and economic performance of countries, since significant investments are required to implement employee professional development. Nevertheless, the sustainable management of lifelong learning and the self-motivation of employees helps to create a learning society not only based on material investment, but also through the development of a learning culture.
    Keywords: employee professional development,economic importance,lifelong learning,learning society,sustainable management,European Union,Latvia
    Date: 2021–12–30

General information on the NEP project can be found at For comments please write to the director of NEP, Marco Novarese at <>. Put “NEP” in the subject, otherwise your mail may be rejected.
NEP’s infrastructure is sponsored by the School of Economics and Finance of Massey University in New Zealand.