nep-cis New Economics Papers
on Confederation of Independent States
Issue of 2022‒04‒18
seventeen papers chosen by
Alexander Harin
Modern University for the Humanities

  1. For God, Tsar and Fatherland? The Political Influence of Church By Ekaterina Travova
  2. In Search of Upcoming Supply Chain Surprises: The World Export Market Shares of Belarus, Russia and Ukraine By Ali-Yrkkö, Jyrki; Hirvonen, Johannes; Rouvinen, Petri
  3. Energy Supply Security in Germany Can Be Guaranteed even without Natural Gas from Russia By Franziska Holz; Robin Sogalla; Christian von Hirschhausen; Claudia Kemfert
  4. Cutting Russia’s Fossil Fuel Exports: Short-Term Pain for Long-Term Gain By Chepeliev, Maksym; Thomas Hertel; Dominique van der Mensbrugghe
  5. Republic of Moldova: Selected Issues By International Monetary Fund
  6. Women entrepreneurship in Kazakhstan and beyond By Leila Farraj; Aminanur Chaia; Shumaila Yousafzai
  7. Impacts of CBAM on EU trade partners: consequences for developing countries By Guilherme MAGACHO; Etienne ESPAGNE; Antoine GODIN
  8. Wirtschaftliche Folgen des Ukraine-Krieges: Zunehmende Belastungen für die deutsche Wirtschaft By Bardt, Hubertus; Grömling, Michael; Schmitz, Edgar
  9. Ukraine-Krise: Belastete Handelsbeziehungen zwischen Russland und Deutschland By Beer, Sonja
  10. Geflüchtete aus der Ukraine: Eine Einschätzung der Integrationschancen By Brücker, Herbert
  11. IAB-Prognose 2022: Konjunkturaufschwung ausgebremst (IAB forecast 2022: Economic upswing slowed down) By Gartner, Hermann; Hellwagner, Timon; Hummel, Markus; Hutter, Christian; Wanger, Susanne; Weber, Enzo; Zika, Gerd
  12. Individual Preferences Toward Inward Foreign Direct Investment: A Conjoint Survey Experiment By TANAKA Ayumu; ITO Banri; JINJI Naoto
  13. Republic of Tajikistan: 2021 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by Executive Director for the Republic of Tajikistan By International Monetary Fund
  14. Essays on the social and distributional effects of public policies By Lisa Bagnoli
  15. Republic of Kazakhstan: Technical Assistance Report-Risk-Based Supervision Pillar 2 Implementation By International Monetary Fund
  16. The Nexus Between Public Enterprise Governance, Financial Performance, and Macroeconomic Vulnerabilities: An Application to Moldova By Mr. Amgad Hegazy; Arturo Navarro
  17. Republic of Kazakhstan: Technical Assistance Report-Risk-Based Supervision Pillar 2 Liquidity By International Monetary Fund

  1. By: Ekaterina Travova
    Abstract: This paper investigates the influence of the Orthodox Church network in Post-Soviet Russia on individual political preferences and election results. I use the numbers of monks and nuns from Orthodox monasteries operated in the Russian Empire before the Revolution as historical religious markers to construct a Bartik-style instrument (1991). I find that a denser Church network increases the average local approval rating for the current president and the share of votes cast for the government candidate in presidential elections. Further analysis of mechanisms shows that, today, the extending Church network is increasingly less able to attract people to attend church and to substantially increase the share of practicing believers. However, it does affect the political preferences of those who, regardless of their faith in God, self-identify as Orthodox. The potential channel for persuasion is media.
    Keywords: Orthodoxy; Church; Approval; Election; National Identity; Media;
    JEL: D83 N33 N34 P16 Z12 Z13
    Date: 2022–03
  2. By: Ali-Yrkkö, Jyrki; Hirvonen, Johannes; Rouvinen, Petri
    Abstract: Abstract This brief considers the world export market shares of Belarus, Russia and Ukraine across over five thousand commodities (the full dataset is provided online at the same web address as this brief). The aim is to provide a tool for gauging where supply chain disruptions might emerge next. Earlier discussion regarding the international trade presence of the three countries has largely revolved around crude oil and natural gas. While they also prominently appear in our analysis, foodstuffs and fertilizers (and the materials thereof) appear to be even more important. With the La Niña weather pattern affecting North American crops in the same time window, a global food catastrophe after the coming autumn, if not sooner, seems imminent. The three countries account for about 70% of sunflower oil exports globally. Their corresponding share for colza and rape oils, popular substitutes for sunflower oil, is over 25%. There are also several narrow and globally minor categories in which the three countries have huge markets shares and in which they might cause disruptions in specific supply chains; examples include specific types of fish and other seafoods. Finland is highly exposed to the consequences of the war (it should be noted, however, that the role of domestic provision in is not considered in this brief). For example, practically all of Finland’s nickel imports come from Russia, as do a significant share of methanol, sawn wood, and crude oil.
    Keywords: Ukraine, Russia, Economy, Exports, Dependency, Imports, Trade, War
    JEL: F14 F1 F51 F52
    Date: 2022–03–29
  3. By: Franziska Holz; Robin Sogalla; Christian von Hirschhausen; Claudia Kemfert
    Abstract: The Russian war on Ukraine and Germany’s dependence on Russian gas require a rethink of German energy supplies. While there is a heated debate about an immediate energy embargo, Russia could also stop its supplies at any time. To date, Germany has purchased around 55 percent of its natural gas from Russia. DIW Berlin has developed scenarios for how the German energy system could become independent of these imports as quickly as possible in the European context: On the supply side, deliveries from other natural gas exporting countries could compensate for some of the Russian exports. Security of supply would be significantly strengthened if the pipeline and storage infrastructure were used more efficiently. On the demand side, there is a short-term savings potential of 19 to 26 percent of current natural gas demand. In the medium term, a push towards renewable heat supply and higher energy efficiency is particularly necessary. If the energy-saving potential is exploited to the maximum and supplies from other natural gas supplier countries are expanded as far as technically possible at the same time, Germany’s supply of natural gas will be secure in 2022 and in the coming winter 2022/2023, even without Russian imports.
    Date: 2022
  4. By: Chepeliev, Maksym; Thomas Hertel; Dominique van der Mensbrugghe
    Abstract: In response to the invasion of Ukraine, most OECD countries have announced punishing sanctions against Russia. In addition to targeting financial markets and service sectors, some countries have begun to impose restrictions on exports of Russia’s fossil fuels. In this paper, we analyze a scenario whereby most OECD countries put major restrictions on Russia’s energy exports. Results suggest that the short-term implications are likely to be non-trivial for EU – Russia’s largest energy export destination. Households’ real income could drop by 0.7-1.7 percent (relative to the reference case) with energy prices growing by as much as 11 percent. But after the initial adjustment period, the cost of such restrictions for the EU is expected to be more modest over the longer run (0.04 percent slowdown in the annual growth rate of real income over the 2022-2030 period), even as they lead to substantial environmental co-benefits through reductions in CO2 (6.6 percent in 2030) and air pollutant emissions (2.8-5.9 percent in 2030). Such emission reductions would take the EU more than halfway to its Green Deal mitigation target, reducing the necessary carbon price by around 40 EUR per tCO2. Adverse impacts on the Russian economy would be overwhelming and, in relative terms, 10 time larger than that for EU. By 2030 the cumulative reduction in Russian real income would exceed 1.1 trillion USD, while lost revenue from fossil fuel exports would be almost 1.4 trillion USD.
    Date: 2022
  5. By: International Monetary Fund
    Abstract: Selected Issues
    Date: 2022–02–23
  6. By: Leila Farraj; Aminanur Chaia; Shumaila Yousafzai
    Date: 2022
  7. By: Guilherme MAGACHO; Etienne ESPAGNE; Antoine GODIN
    Abstract: This article analyses the impact of the introduction of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) on the European Union (EU) trade partners, focusing especially on its potential socio-economic and external consequences for developing and emerging economies. It uses trade data and Multi-regional Input-Output (MRIO) matrices to investigate the geographically and sectorally uneven distribution of CBAM’s impacts. The introduction of CBAM by the EU is under discussion, and most of the literature on the topic has analysed the consequences for the EU economies. However, this carbon adjustment mechanism, which seeks to reduce the incentives for firms to outsource their carbon emissions and promote a more generalized low-carbon transition, might disproportionally impact some non EU economies. Despite most carbon revenues would be generated by Russia, China and Ukraine, the degree of exposure of economies that export the CBAM products to Europe varies substantially, with many developing economies having more than 2% of their exports, and 1% of their production impacted by this measure. East European economies, mainly in the Balkans, as well as Mozambique, Zimbabwe and Cameroon, in Africa, are those where exports are the most exposed. In socioeconomic terms, we can also include Morocco and Tajikistan in the group of most exposed economies. CBAM is certainly an important step towards a European pricing carbon dynamics. Its implementation conditions may also promote a global (rather than local) lowcarbon transition if the carbon revenues generated by this mechanism are used to support the most impacted developing countries outside the EU.
    JEL: Q
    Date: 2022–03–10
  8. By: Bardt, Hubertus; Grömling, Michael; Schmitz, Edgar
    Abstract: Der durch den russischen Überfall ausgelöste Krieg in der Ukraine bringt erhebliche Belastungen für die deutsche Wirtschaft mit sich. Auf Basis verschiedener laufender Befragungen durch das Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft werden die verschiedenen Auswirkungen vermessen. Rund drei Viertel der Unternehmen sehen sich derzeit durch hohe Energiepreise belastet. Weit mehr als ein Drittel sehen sich in ihren Geschäftsabläufen durch ausfallende Lieferungen von Vorleistungen oder drohende Engpässe in der Energieversorgung bedroht. Seit der ersten Kriegs- und Befragungswoche haben sich die Sorgen tendenziell erhöht. Für die mittlere Frist werden weiter ansteigende Belastungen durch den Krieg für die Unternehmen in Deutschland erwartet.
    JEL: C82 E32 F23 F51
    Date: 2022
  9. By: Beer, Sonja
    Abstract: Deutschland ist einer der wichtigsten Handelspartner Russlands. Obwohl die Handelsbeziehungen schon seit der Krim-Annexion und der gegenseitigen Sanktionen im Jahr 2014 beeinträchtigt sind, entfielen immer noch rund 7,4 Prozent des gesamten Außenhandels Russlands im Jahr 2020 auf den Warenhandel mit Deutschland.
    Date: 2022
  10. By: Brücker, Herbert (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany)
    Abstract: "Since the onset of the war in the Ukraine until March 22 some 3.6 million refugees have left the country. This corresponds to a daily outflow of 160,000 persons. The peak was achieved with an emigration of some 210,000 refugees ten days after the onset of the war, meanwhile the outflow has stabilized to 66,000 to 70,000 persons per day. The refugee migration is concentrated on the countries at the EU borders to the Ukraine and Moldavia, albeit exact figures on secondary migration to other EU Member States are missing. Germany has received according to official data some 232,000 refugees until March 22. However, the actual figures are likely to be considerably higher since only a part of the immigration is documented in the Schengen area. Evidence-based forecasts of the migration potential from Ukraine are not feasible at present, since the conditions for flight and migration in the Ukraine are historically unprecedented and the outcome of the war and the post-war situation is uncertain. Both a substantial further increase in the migration figures as well as substantial return migration in case of a ceasefire are possible. So far, the share of minor-aged children is estimated to stand at 50 percent of the refugee population, the adult population is overwhelmingly dominated by females. Education levels of the Ukrainian population are high, and school enrollment rates of females in tertiary education are considerably higher than those of males. Education levels of the Ukrainian diaspora in Germany are high as well with tertiary education shares of 50 percent. Nevertheless, the Ukrainian workforce is only partially able to transfer this human capital into the German labor market and substantial parts are employed below their education levels. A disproportionally high share of 30 percent of the employed workforce performs helper and assistance tasks. The activation of the mass-displacement directive of the EU has improved the conditions for providing shelter for refugees and of their integration into the labor market and societies relative to the Dublin-III-directive and the other rules of the Common European Asylum System. It facilitates a more efficient distribution of refugees from Ukraine across the EU Member States, mitigates pressures on the border countries of the EU and reduces the risk of a collapse of the European asylum system. It furthermore facilitates integration since granting a temporary residence permit increases legal security and avoids integration hurdles created by lengthy and uncertain asylum procedures. The one-year residence permit should be prolonged to three years if the situation in the Ukraine does not allow fast return migration in order to create longer planning horizons and further legal security, which will in turn further foster the integration of refugees from the Ukraine. In the past, the dispersal of refugees according to the “Königsteiner Schlüssel” across the Federal States and the administrative dispersal of refugees across municipalities by the Federal States has resulted in a disproportional allocation of the refugee population in regions with poor economic prospects and above-average unemployment rates. This has also hampered the utilization of networks which might facilitate labor market integration and impaired the allocative efficiency of the labor market by increasing information- and search costs. Thus, dispersal policies should also consider preferences of the refugee population and integration criteria, particularly criteria which are relevant for labor market integration." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
    Keywords: Bundesrepublik Deutschland ; Ukraine ; IAB-Open-Access-Publikation ; Auswirkungen ; berufliche Integration ; berufliche Qualifikation ; Einwanderer ; Einwanderung ; Einwanderungspolitik ; Geflüchtete ; Frauen ; Geschlechterverteilung ; Herkunftsland ; Hochschulabsolventen ; internationale Migration ; Kinder ; Krieg ; Anerkennung ; Qualifikationsniveau ; Qualifikationsstruktur ; regionale Verteilung ; IAB-SOEP-Migrationsstichprobe ; schulische Integration ; Sprachförderung ; Wanderungspotenzial ; Weiterbildungsförderung ; Zielgebiet ; Arbeitsvermittlung ; 2000-2022
    Date: 2022–03–24
  11. By: Gartner, Hermann (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Hellwagner, Timon (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Hummel, Markus (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Hutter, Christian (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Wanger, Susanne (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Weber, Enzo (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Zika, Gerd (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany)
    Abstract: "Labor market development in Germany remained comparatively robust even after the second Corona winter. The assessment of the further economic development is dominated by Russia's attack on Ukraine. The brief report provides an outlook for the economy and labor market activity in 2022, assuming that the Ukraine war does not lead to an even broader escalation, but that it will not end quickly either." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
    Keywords: Bundesrepublik Deutschland ; Ukraine ; Pandemie ; IAB-Open-Access-Publikation ; Auswirkungen ; Beschäftigungseffekte ; Bruttoinlandsprodukt ; Erwerbspersonenpotenzial ; Erwerbsquote ; internationale Migration ; Konjunkturaufschwung ; Krieg ; Rezession ; sektorale Verteilung ; Arbeitslosenquote ; Arbeitsmarktprognose ; Wirtschaftsentwicklung ; Wirtschaftszweige ; Arbeitsvolumen ; Arbeitszeit
    Date: 2022–03–25
  12. By: TANAKA Ayumu; ITO Banri; JINJI Naoto
    Abstract: In this study, we conduct a conjoint survey experiment in Japan to analyze the determinants of preferences toward the acquisitions by foreign firms. Conjoint survey experiments allow us to simultaneously estimate the effects of various attributes of foreign acquisitions, enabling us to analyze the complex causal relationships between various attributes of an acquisition project and people's antipathy toward it. The results of the experiment demonstrate that the nationality of the foreign firm, reciprocity, and the economic conditions of the location of the firm being acquired are important factors. Specifically, our respondents' approval rates for acquisitions by US firms are higher and those for acquisitions by Chinese, Korean, and Russian firms are lower compared to those for the acquisitions by the baseline "foreign firms." Moreover, their approval rates are higher for acquisitions by firms from countries that have been receptive to Japanese investment and for the foreign takeover of firms in areas with a high unemployment rate.
    Date: 2022–02
  13. By: International Monetary Fund
    Abstract: With a strong recovery in train, the authorities are gradually withdrawing the policy stimulus released during the pandemic. Although debt is sustainable, there is a high risk of debt distress. At the same time, financing the Roghun dam project while implementing tax reform remains a key challenge. The financial sector has stabilized, but intermediation remains low. Risks to the outlook are tilted to the downside due to uncertainty on the pandemic and regional spillovers.
    Keywords: government of the Republic of Tajikistan; monetary policy stance; liquidation procedure; Tajik authorities; government decree; growth projection; Debt sustainability analysis; Financial statistics; External sector statistics; Global; Central Asia and the Caucasus; Central Asia
    Date: 2022–02–18
  14. By: Lisa Bagnoli
    Abstract: This Ph.D. thesis focuses on the social and distributional effects of public policies, whether these are intended or not. To address the topic, I categorize public policies along two dimensions. First, I distinguish between policies with explicit social objectives and those without. Second, I distinguish between policies targeting specific vulnerable groups and those covering the whole population. The thesis consists of three empirical evaluations in three different contexts and sectors. The first chapter analyzes the introduction of a public policy with explicit social objectives and an explicit targeting of the most vulnerable. I focus on the impact of a social subsidy on electricity prices on the likelihood of energy poverty of vulnerable households in Spain. The second chapter assesses a public policy with social objectives but not directly targeted to the most vulnerable population. I investigate the heterogeneous health impact of the introduction in Ghana of free health insurance for all children. Finally, the third chapter analyzes the case of a policy without explicit social objectives or targeting. In this case I evaluate the unintended distributional effects of the introduction of a railroad in Kazakhstan through its effects on trade by the local population.
    Abstract: Chapter 1: How effective has the electricity social rate been in reducing energy poverty in Spain? This chapter analyzes whether the introduction of an electricity social rate was effective in reducing the likelihood of energy poverty. We focus on the Bono Social de Electricidad, introduced in 2009 in Spain's electricity market, a policy aimed at increasing the affordability of electricity by entailing a discount on prices for vulnerable consumers. Using data from the family budget surveys from 2006 to 2017, we rely on a difference-in-differences approach to measure its causal impact on energy poverty. We show that, on average, the introduction of the policy has reduced the likelihood of energy poverty. However, the magnitude of the effect is quite modest in practice as it takes only 59,000 households out of energy poverty out of the 2.8 million households still in that situation in 2018. It is noteworthy that the results also show that the lower effective prices do not lead an increase of the beneficiaries consumption of electricity. Overall this chapter provides new evidence on the institutional determinants of energy poverty and highlights the importance of assessing the magnitude of the effects as well as the targeting strategy of public policies to make the most of the resources allocated to social policies.
    Abstract: Chapter 2: Does health insurance improve health for all? Heterogeneous effects on children in Ghana. This chapter investigates the extent to which the impact of a policy depends on the characteristics of the beneficiaries but also on the institutional capacity of the decentralized implementing agencies. To do so, I analyze the case of Ghana’s National Health Insurance Scheme (NHIS) that provides free coverage for all children. I exploit the Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey of 2011 and I use propensity score matching to account for selection in the scheme. The study finds that, even though the NHIS is successful on average in improving health outcomes among insured children in Ghana, gains are not shared equally across regions. The positive impact of health insurance is entirely concentrated among the lower-income households in regions with a high quality of public health care. This chapter sheds a new light on the mixed results of the literature on the impact of health insurance on health outcomes. It provides an understanding of the sources of the heterogeneous impact of a National Health Insurance Scheme and highlights the importance of context and implementation as drivers of its effectiveness.
    Abstract: Chapter 3: Distributional effects of colonial railroads: Evidence from Kazakhstan. This chapter analyzes how the gains from a major public investment in railways undertaken without any explicit social objectives are shared among the population. More specifically, we study the distributional effect of Orenburg-Tashkent railroad constructed by the Russian Empire through Kazakh steppes in 1905-1906. The analysis is based on a unique historical dataset allowing us to provide evidence from a quasi-natural experiment to compare economic outcomes of households of varying wealth located in districts close and far from the railroad. We focus on the impact of the investment on the trading activities of households.We find that wealthier households benefited disproportionately more in trading activities from railroad closeness, whereas the trading activity of the poorer strata located closer to the railroad decreased. The colonial railroad appears affecting the indigenous population mostly through bringing in Russian peasant settlements rather than by reducing costs of long-distance trade. This paper provides novel evidence of the distributional effects of transportation infrastructure within regions. It further stresses the short and medium term social risks associated with failures to consider explicitly all the welfare impact of major public investments rather than just focusing on their long term growth payoffs.
    Abstract: Conclusion: The analysis of these three case studies documents the diversity of social and distributional concerns arising from public policies. By studying different contexts with different methodological approaches, this thesis points to the importance of: (1) assessing ex-ante the size of the effects to reduce the risk of misuse of resources; (2) matching the targeting of beneficiaries with the stated policy objectives; (3) matching implementation strategies with institutional capacity; (4) considering the likely heterogeneity of direct impacts and their causes; and (5) considering explicitly the possibility of unintended or indirect social and distributional effects of policies to adopt mitigating solutions as needed. Overall, such evidence is relevant for both the evaluation and monitoring of existing policies as well as for the implementation of new policy reforms.
    Keywords: Public policies, social effects, distributional effects, energy, health, transport
    Date: 2022–02–21
  15. By: International Monetary Fund
    Abstract: This virtual technical assistance (TA) mission supported the Agency in strengthening certain elements of its risk based supervisory framework. The mission focused on assisting the Agency with its development of internal supervisory methodologies for assessing a bank’s ICAAP, and for setting individual Pillar 2 supervisory capital requirements. The mission provided recommendations and targeted training. The priorities for the next TA missions were discussed with the Agency (strengthening banking supervision and cybersecurity, and diagnostic TA of insurance sector supervision will be considered). The mission benefited from simultaneous translation.
    Date: 2022–03–01
  16. By: Mr. Amgad Hegazy; Arturo Navarro
    Abstract: Strong governance frameworks for public enterprises have long been an anchor of stability and efficiency underpinning their financial operations and performance. Cross-country experiences with the adoption of robust legal, regulatory and institutional arrangements—in line with international best practices— proved critical in reducing well-known risks and vulnerabilities from such companies, clarifying the role of the state, improving the management of state assets, and ensuring a level playing field for the private sector to prosper. Moldova’s large public enterprise sector of over 900 companies faces elevated risks that amplify fiscal and macroeconomic vulnerabilities and undermine market competition, productivity, and private investment. Moldova stands to greatly benefit from strengthening its public corporate governance regime to put its public enterprises on a stronger footing, address vulnerabilities, and improve market structure.
    Keywords: Public enterprise (SOE) governance, SOE financial performance, macro-fiscal risks from SOEs, SOE reforms, public financial management
    Date: 2022–03–04
  17. By: International Monetary Fund
    Abstract: This virtual technical assistance (TA) mission assisted the Agency in strengthening liquidity elements of its risk-based supervisory framework. The mission focused on supporting the Agency with the development of internal supervisory methodology for the assessment of banks’ ILAAP and setting individual Pillar 2 supervisory liquidity requirements and provided guidance on stress testing and sensitivity analysis through survival horizon analysis. The mission consisted of a combination of presentations, discussions, and trainings, including case studies, and covered the BCBS standards on liquidity risk and other jurisdictions’ approaches for the assessment of ILAAP and the Pillar 2 liquidity supervisory review process. This mission should be seen in the context of previous three IMF TA missions which were held since September 2020.
    Date: 2022–03–01

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