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on Confederation of Independent States |
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Issue of 2022‒04‒04
fourteen papers chosen by |
| By: | Ali-Yrkkö, Jyrki; Hirvonen, Johannes; Kangasharju, Aki |
| Abstract: | Abstract This Policy Brief analyses the importance of Russia on the Finnish economy. We scrutinize both the trade relations and the presence of Finnish firms in Russia and that of Russian firms in Finland. We will show how Russia was seen as a large opportunity for the Finnish economy in the first two decades after the collapse of Soviet Union. During the 2010s, relations have, however, weakened, due to economic sanctions and the devaluation of ruble. The relations reached such low levels by the new war in Ukraine that new sanctions will most probably not cause economic crisis in Finland. A recession outcome would need an escalation in war and/or more severe deterioration in energy and raw material markets. Nonetheless, growth will decline and inflation will spike. |
| Keywords: | Russia, Significance, Economy, Companies, Exports, Imports, Investment |
| JEL: | F23 F14 F51 F1 |
| Date: | 2022–03–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rif:briefs:105&r= |
| By: | Gabriel Felbermayr (Austrian Institute of Economic Research); Hendrik Mahlkow; Alexander Sandkamp |
| Abstract: | With ever-increasing political tensions between China and Russia on one side and the EU and the USA on the other, it only seems a matter of time until protectionist policies cause a decoupling of global value chains. This paper uses a computable general equilibrium trade model calibrated with the latest version of the GTAP database to simulate the effect of doubling non-tariff barriers – both unilateral and reciprocal – between the two blocks on trade and welfare. Imposing trade barriers almost completely eliminates bilateral imports. In addition, changes in price levels lead to higher imports and lower exports of the imposing country group from and to the rest of the world. The targeted country group increases exports to the rest of the world and reduces imports. Welfare falls in all countries involved, suggesting that governments should strive to cooperate rather than turning away from each other. By imposing a trade war on Russia, the political West could inflict severe damage on the Russian economy because of the latter's smaller relative size. |
| Keywords: | Trade, non-tariff barriers, global value chains, quantitative trade model, China, Russia, European Union |
| Date: | 2022–03–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wfo:wpaper:y:2022:i:644&r= |
| By: | Adachi, Yuko; Iwasaki, Ichiro |
| Abstract: | This paper traces the survival status of 93,260 Russian business firms in the period of 2007–2019 and empirically examines the determinants of the acquisition of financially distressed companies (i.e., distressed acquisitions). We found that, of 93,260 firms, 50,743 failed in management, and among these distressed firms, 10,110 were rescued by acquisition during the observation period. Our empirical results indicate that, in Russian regions, the weakness of the legal system tends to increase the probability of distressed acquisitions, while other socioeconomic risks negatively affect it. These tendencies are common in most industries and regions. It is also revealed that, in the most developed area, monotown enterprises are more likely to be bailed out by acquisition after management failure than other firms, but it is not always true for the whole nation. |
| Keywords: | legal weakness, investment risk, financial distress, distressed acquisitions, Russia |
| JEL: | C35 D02 D22 E02 G34 K20 L22 |
| Date: | 2022–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hit:rrcwps:98&r= |
| By: | Whelsy BOUNGOU; Alhonita YATIE |
| Abstract: | As a topical topic, this paper studies the responses of world stock market indices to the ongoing war between Ukraine and Russia. The empirical analysis is based on daily stock market returns in a sample of 94 countries and covers the period from 22 January 2022 to 3 March 2022. We consistently document a negative relationship between the Ukraine-Russia war and world stock market returns. Furthermore, our results reveal that returns have been significantly lower since the invasion of Russian troops into Ukraine on 24 February 2022. Overall, we provide the first empirical evidence of the effect of the Ukraine-Russia war on international stock market returns.As a topical topic, this paper studies the responses of world stock market indices to the ongoing war between Ukraine and Russia. The empirical analysis is based on daily stock market returns in a sample of 94 countries and covers the period from 22 January 2022 to 3 March 2022. We consistently document a negative relationship between the Ukraine-Russia war and world stock market returns. Furthermore, our results reveal that returns have been significantly lower since the invasion of Russian troops into Ukraine on 24 February 2022. Overall, we provide the first empirical evidence of the effect of the Ukraine-Russia war on international stock market returns. |
| Keywords: | War, Russia, Ukraine, Stock index |
| JEL: | H56 G11 G14 G15 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:grt:bdxewp:2022-06&r= |
| By: | Angeloni, Ignazio; Daase, Christopher; Deitelhoff, Nicole; Goldmann, Matthias; Krahnen, Jan Pieter; Kroll, Stefan; Luft, Carl-Georg Christoph; Nölke, Andreas; Peez, Anton; Pelizzon, Loriana |
| Abstract: | This policy note summarizes our assessment of financial sanctions against Russia. We see an increase in sanctions severity starting from (1) the widely discussed SWIFT exclusions, followed by (2) blocking of correspondent banking relationships with Russian banks, including the Central Bank, alongside secondary sanctions, and (3) a full blacklisting of the 'real' export-import flows underlying the financial transactions. We assess option (1) as being less impactful than often believed yet sending a strong signal of EU unity; option (2) as an effective way to isolate the Russian banking system, particularly if secondary sanctions are in place, to avoid workarounds. Option (3) represents possibly the most effective way to apply economic and financial pressure, interrupting trade relationships. |
| Keywords: | SWIFT,Russian Sanctions |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:safepl:95&r= |
| By: | Jurić, Tado |
| Abstract: | Background: This paper shows that Big Data and the so-called tools of digital demography, such as Google Trends (GT) and insights from social networks such as Instagram, Twitter and Facebook, can be useful for determining, estimating, and predicting the forced migration flows to the EU caused by the war in Ukraine. Objective: The objective of this study was to test the usefulness of Google Trends indexes to predict further forced migration from Ukraine to the EU (mainly to Germany) and gain demographic insights from social networks into the age and gender structure of refugees. Methods: The primary methodological concept of our approach is to monitor the digital trace of Internet searches in Ukrainian, Russian and English with the Google Trends analytical tool (trends.google.com). Initially, keywords were chosen that are most predictive, specific, and common enough to predict the forced migration from Ukraine. We requested the data before and during the war outbreak and divided the keyword frequency for each migration-related query to standardise the data. We compared this search frequency index with official statistics from UNHCR to prove the significations of results and correlations and test the models predictive potential. Since UNHCR does not yet have complete data on the demographic structure of refugees, to fill this gap, we used three other alternative Big Data sources: Facebook, Twitter and Instagram. Results: All tested migration-related search queries about emigration planning from Ukraine show the positive linear association between Google index and data from official UNHCR statistics; R2 = 0.1211 for searches in Russian and R2 = 0.1831 for searches in Ukrainian. It is noticed that Ukrainians use the Russian language more often to search for terms than Ukrainian. Increase in migration-related search activities in Ukraine such as граница (Rus. border), кордону (Ukr. border); Польща (Poland); Германия (Rus. Germany), Німеччина (Ukr. Germany) and Угорщина and Венгрия (Hungary) correlate strongly with officially UNHCR data for externally displaced persons from Ukraine. All three languages show that the interest in Poland is the highest. When refugees arrive in nearby countries, the search for terms related to Germany, such as crossing the border + Germany, etc., is proliferating. This result confirms our hypothesis that one-third of all refugees will cross into Germany. According to Big Data insights, the estimate of the total number of expected refugees is to expect 5,4 Million refugees. The age group most represented is between 24 and 45 years (data for children are unavailable), and over 65% are women. Conclusion: The increase in migration-related search queries is correlated with the rise in the number of refugees from Ukraine in the EU. Thus this method allows reliable forecasts. Understanding the consequences of forced migration from Ukraine is crucial to enabling UNHCR and governments to develop optimal humanitarian strategies and prepare for refugee reception and possible integration. The benefit of this method is reliable estimates and forecasting that can allow governments and UNHCR to prepare and better respond to the recent humanitarian crisis. |
| Keywords: | refugee,Ukraine,Big Data,forced migration,Google Trends,UNHCR |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:251215&r= |
| By: | Кобенко, Антон Александрович; Кунцевич, Анна Юрьевна; Анатольевна, Будаева Софья; Kudryashov, Alexander (Open European Academy of Public Sciences) |
| Abstract: | В статье анализируются проблемы, которые препятствуют благоприятному функционированию системы финансового планирования. С данными проблемами сталкиваются предприятия в процессе организации и исполнения финансового планирования. В результате исследования были выявлены наиболее актуальные проблемы, возникающие в процессе составления финансового плана. Проанализированы причины возникновения этих проблем, а также предложены рекомендации для финансовых служб, с целью устранения обнаруженных проблем. Данные рекомендации позволят совершенствовать финансовое планирование на предприятиях и окажут положительное влияние на деятельность организаций в целом. При анализе была выявлена необходимость автоматизации управленческого учета для эффективного решения широкого круга вопросов, возникающих в процессе финансового планирования. В процессе исследования была использована научная литература отечественных авторов. Авторами предложена концепция информационной системы для бизнеса с интегрированным финансовым контроллингом. Данные, используемые в процессе финансового контроллинга, берутся непосредственно из взаимосвязанных систем, что позволяет избежать проблемы фрагментации данных. Целостность прослеживаемых данных гарантирует актуальность и надежность хранимой информации. |
| Date: | 2021–11–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:4shpf&r= |
| By: | Гуторов, Сергей Сергеевич; Гущина, Наталья Григорьевна; Михалина, Надежда Владимировна; Kudryashov, Alexander (Open European Academy of Public Sciences) |
| Abstract: | В статье рассмотрены проблемы, принципы и актуальные направления управления финансовыми ресурсами в условиях экономического кризиса. Знание и использование основных принципов управления финансами в условиях современного кризиса, таких как, ранняя диагностика кризисных явлений, оперативность реагирования на кризисные проявления, адекватность мер и проводимой политики, а также, полная реализация внутренних возможностей, позволят бизнесу не допустить потери состоятельности, повысить конкурентоспособность и эффективность деятельности. |
| Date: | 2021–11–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:2wqe4&r= |
| By: | Sheehan, James |
| Abstract: | Combined-Arms Cyber Warfare utilizes cyber-attack, sabotage of infrastructural elements and Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) attack, alone or in combination with conventional military tactics, to conduct warfare against opposing military forces and the civilian populations and/or infrastructures which they defend. Nuclear EMP attacks have been acknowledged to constitute a central component of the military doctrines, plans and exercises of the Combined-Arms Cyber Warfare doctrines of multiple nations. A Nuclear EMP attack consists of the detonation of thermonuclear weapons in a manner that minimizes the energy liberated in the form of blast (overpressure) and thermal effects, while ensuring an increased proportion of detonation energy is directed to the targeted area as prompt radiation emissions and an associated electrical field. Significant overlap exists between the design and function of Nuclear EMP weapons and that of Enhanced Radiation Weapons (ERW), colloquially known as “Neutron bombs”. ERW are also a class of fission-fusion devices specifically designed to limit the energy of detonation manifested as blast and thermal effects while maximizing the percentage of energetic yield released as prompt radiation, with a particular emphasis on gamma-neutron emissions. Neutrons have been reported to be more biologically hazardous than ionizing photons on a per-dose basis. Slow and Thermal neutrons have been reported to possess a greater relative biological effectiveness (RBE) for cell death, single-strand DNA breakage and double-strand DNA breakage, relative to an equivalent dose of gamma-radiation. The full-length SARS-CoV2 spike glycoprotein has been reported to directly inhibit double-strand break (DSB) DNA repair in the absence of SARS-CoV-2 infection. Additionally, the spike glycoprotein of SARS-CoV-2 impairs the expansion of hematopoietic stem cells (HSCs) and hematopoietic progenitor cells (HPCs) in the absence of active SARS-CoV-2 infection. Viral-vector and mRNA vaccines against SARS-CoV-2, may be engineered to compel the protein synthetic apparatus of recipient patients to synthesize the full-length SARS-CoV-2 spike glycoprotein in a non-throttleable manner. NATO and NATO-aligned countries, (such as Australia, Japan and Israel), have almost exclusively utilized viral-vector and mRNA vaccines, which forcibly compels the protein synthetic apparatus of recipient patients to engage in the self-synthesis of the full-length SARS-CoV-2 spike glycoprotein. Conversely, non-NATO, nuclear capable nations such as: China, Russia, India, Pakistan, North Korea and Iran have utilized a variety of SARS-CoV-2 vaccines, including inactivated-virus vaccines, subunit vaccines and nucleotide vaccines which do not compel the self-synthesis of the full-length SARS-CoV-2 spike glycoproteins. This report examines the strategic sequelae resulting from the disparity in SARS-CoV-2 vaccination policies between NATO/NATO-aligned nations and non-NATO, nuclear-capable nations such as: China, Russia, North Korea and Iran, in the context of the doctrine of Combined-Arms Cyber Warfare. |
| Date: | 2022–02–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:z2buw&r= |
| By: | Müller, Henrik; Schmidt, Tobias; Rieger, Jonas; Hufnagel, Lena Marie; Hornig, Nico |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we present a new indicator to measure the media coverage of inflation. Our Inflation Perception Indicator (IPI) for Germany is based on a corpus of three million articles published by broadsheet newspapers between January 2001 and February 2022. It is designed to detect thematic trends, thereby providing new insights into the dynamics of inflation perception over time. These results may prove particularly valuable at the current juncture, where massive uncertainty prevails due to geopolitical conflicts and the pandemic-related supply-chain jitters. Economists inspired by Shiller (2017; 2020) have called for analyses of economic narratives to complement econometric analyses. The IPI operationalizes such an approach by isolating inflation narratives circulating in the media. Methodically, the IPI makes use of RollingLDA (Rieger et al. 2021), a dynamic topic modeling approach refining the rather static original LDA (Blei et al. 2003) to allow for changes in the model's structure over time. By modeling the process of collective memory, where experiences of the past are partly overwritten and altered by new ones and partly sink into oblivion, RollingLDA is a potent tool to capture the evolution of economic narratives as social phenomena. In addition, it is suitable to produce stable time-series, to the effect that the IPI can be updated frequently. Our initial results show a narrative landscape in turmoil. Never in the past two decades has there been such a broad shift in inflation perception, and therefore, possibly, in inflation expectations. Also, second-round effects, such as significant wage demands, that have not played a major role in Germany for a long time, seem to be in the making. Towards the end of the time horizon, raw material prices are high on the agenda, too, triggered by the Russian war against Ukraine and the ensuing sanctions against the aggressor. We would like to encourage researchers to use our data and are happy to share it on request. |
| Keywords: | Inflation,Expectations,Narratives,Latent Dirichlet Allocation,Covid-19,Text Mining,Computational Methods,Behavioral Economics |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:docmaw:9&r= |
| By: | Brücker, Herbert (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Goßner, Laura (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Hauptmann, Andreas (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Jaschke, Philipp (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Kassam, Kamal (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Kosyakova, Yuliya (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Stepanok, Ignat (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany) |
| Abstract: | "The war in the Ukraine will have a long-lasting impact on flight, migration and integration of refugees in Europe. At the time when this report was written, more than 500,000 persons migrated from Ukraine to the European Union (EU) and Moldavia since the beginning of the war. This is equal about 100,000 persons per day. War, forced displacements and persecution triggers much larger migration flows compared to economic factors. Moreover, the EU’s borders are largely open since no visas are required for Ukrainian citizens and the EU plans to grant temporary residence permits beyond the asylum system for the refugee population. Against this background, we expect a substantial incease in migration from the Ukraine, although the migration potential cannot be quantified in detail at the current state of research. So far the refugee migration from the Ukraine is concentrated on the neighbouring countries in the EU and Moldavia, which resembles by and large the regional distribution of migration stocks in the pre-war period. However, crisis can result in substantial diversion of migration flows as past experience has demonstrated. Thus, wealthy destination countries in the EU such as Germany might receive a higher share of migrants from the Ukraine compared to the past. Germany is therefore well adviced to prepare for large refugee migration inflows. In the past, immigrants from the Ukraine have been, with a tertiary education share of about 50 per cent, well-educated. 57 percent are females. The labor market integration of Ukrainian citizens matches that of the foreign population average in Germany, while individuals with a Ukrainian migration background, of which many have meanwhile German citizenship, fare considerably better in the labour market. The integration of the refugee population from the Ukraine can be improved if the EU and Germany clarifies the legal status immediately and open perspectives for obtaining long-term residence permits. Moreover, considering labor market criteria in the regional allocation of refugees can speed-up labour market integration. The fast integration into language- and labour market programs, labour market advice and job-placement activities, the acknowledgement of foreign educational degrees and supporting the acquisition of further degrees in Germay can also foster integration. Finally, providing education and care services is not only essential for the integration of children, but might be also highly relevant or the integration of the large female population. Integrating females in language- and labour market programs should be prioritized as well." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en)) |
| Keywords: | Bundesrepublik Deutschland ; Ukraine ; IAB-Open-Access-Publikation ; Auswirkungen ; berufliche Integration ; berufliche Qualifikation ; Einwanderer ; Einwanderung ; Einwanderungspolitik ; Geflüchtete ; Herkunftsland ; internationale Migration ; Krieg ; Anerkennung ; Qualifikationsstruktur ; regionale Verteilung ; IAB-SOEP-Migrationsstichprobe ; schulische Integration ; Sprachförderung ; Wanderungspotenzial ; Weiterbildungsförderung ; Zielgebiet ; Arbeitsvermittlung ; 2000-2020 |
| Date: | 2022–03–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iab:iabfob:202202&r= |
| By: | Hella Engerer |
| Abstract: | Nach dem völkerrechtswidrigen Einmarsch der russischen Truppen in die Ukraine haben sich die EU-Mitgliedstaaten und die USA am vergangenen Wochenende auf tiefgreifende Restriktionen im Finanzsektor verständigt. Die Schweiz hat sich diesen Sanktionen inzwischen angeschlossen. Die gegen die russische Zentralbank ergriffenen Maßnahmen zielen darauf ab, deren Handlungsspielräume durch Einfrieren ihrer Devisenreserven deutlich zu beschränken. Dies ist ein äußerst wirksames Instrument, das in der Geschichte erstmals gegenüber einer großen Volkswirtschaft verhängt wurde und zur Folge hat, dass die russische Zentralbank keinen Zugriff mehr auf einen Großteil ihrer knapp 600 Milliarden US-Dollar umfassenden Währungsreserven hat. Daraus resultiert der Absturz des Rubels am 28. Februar, dem die russische Zentralbank noch am gleichen Tag mit einer starken Erhöhung ihres Leitzinses begegnete. Diese Zinserhöhung trifft eine ohnehin schon wachstumsschwache Volkswirtschaft, die es bislang versäumt hat, ihre starke Abhängigkeit von der Produktion fossiler Energieträger zu reduzieren. |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwakt:79de&r= |
| By: | Cicek, Bensu; Peskes, Markus |
| Abstract: | Plötzlich auftretende Störgrößen, wie auch dauerhaft bestehende Gefahren können das Management und den Erfolg von Projekten, aber insbesondere Programmen bedrohen. Besonders internationale Großprojekte, wie Nord Stream 2, die im Rahmen des Programmmanagements zu steuern sind, können neben klassischen Herausforderungen des Projektmanagements insb. durch eine Vielzahl unterschiedlicher Risiken auf politischer sowie wirtschaftlicher Ebene bedroht werden. Mit Blick auf das beispielhaft für internationale Großprojekte bzw. Programme gewählte Großprojekt Nord Stream 2 sind die mögliche wirtschaftspolitische Abhängigkeit von Russland hinsichtlich der Rohstoffversorgung, das Eindringen in das Ökosystem Ostsee sowie geopolitische Rahmenbedingungen, wie der Konflikt zwischen Russland und der Ukraine, Beispiele für weitere Risiken, die bei derartigen Großprojekten - neben den klassischen Herausforderungen des Programm- und Projektmanagements - den Projektverlauf, -erfolg sowie die tatsächliche Umsetzung der Projektergebnisse in den betrieblichen Alltag gefährden können. Daher steht das Management vor der herausfordernden Aufgabe und ist gut beraten, ein leistungsfähiges, sowohl umfassendes als auch und weit vorausschauendes, permanentes Risikomanagementsystem im Programm- und Projektmanagements zu implementieren, um frühzeitig Störgrößen zu identifizieren und auszusteuern. In dem vorliegenden Research Paper wird am Beispiel Nord Stream 2 untersucht, inwiefern ein sachgerechtes Risikomanagementsystem als zentraler Bestandteil des Programm- und Projektmanagements einen wichtigen Beitrag zum Projekterfolg zu leisten vermag. |
| Keywords: | Programmmanagement,Projektmanagement,Risikomanagement,Großprojekt,Nord Stream 2,International Project Management |
| JEL: | L29 O22 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esrepo:250067&r= |
| By: | Djanibekov, Nodir; Herzfeld, Thomas |
| Abstract: | This report contributes to the project "Securing agriculture and rural development in times of COVID-19, pathways to regional responses for recovery, reforms, and resilience" by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO). The objectives of the report are threefold: 1) to assess the multiple impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on agriculture, food security, and rural community; 2) to review the policy responses taken by the governments of eight Central Asia and Caucasus (CAC) countries to mitigate the effects of the crisis, and 3) to provide contextual options to build the resilience of the agricultural sector during post-COVID-19 recovery and against future shocks. |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iamodp:198&r= |