nep-cis New Economics Papers
on Confederation of Independent States
Issue of 2022‒03‒28
thirteen papers chosen by

  1. Cutting through the Value Chain: The long-run effects of decoupling the East from the West. By Gabriel Felbermayr; Hendrik Mahlkow; Alexander Sandkamp
  2. Dilema Kebijakan Sanksi Swiss dalam Merespon Krisis Ukraina (2014-2020) By Fachrie, Muhammad
  3. Корпоративное банкротство в Казахстане: проблемы и решения // Corporate bankruptcy in Kazakhstan: problems and solutions By Миллер Алия // Miller Aliya; Кабдулов Аймырза // Kabdulov Aimyrza
  4. Monthly Report No. 9/2021 By Vasily Astrov; Rumen Dobrinsky; Olga Pindyuk; Leon Podkaminer
  5. Казахстанский рынок депозитов населения: проблемы и решения // Kazakhstan's retail deposit market: problems and solutions By Хакимжанов Сабит// Khakimzhanov Sabit; Миллер Алия // Miller Aliya; Джусангалиева Камилла // Jussangaliyeva Kamilla; Тазетдинова Динара // Tazetdinova Dinara
  6. Пруденциальные требования по ликвидности и риск-ориентированный подход // Prudential liquidity requirements and a risk-based approach By Джусангалиева Камилла // Jussangaliyeva Kamilla; Миллер Алия // Miller Aliya; Хакимжанов Сабит // Khakimzhanov Sabit
  8. Flüchtlinge aus der Ukraine. Erwartete Entwicklung und Herausforderungen By Julia Bock-Schappelwein; Peter Huber
  9. Energy use inefficiency and policy governance: the case of Central Asian countries By Taguchi, Hiroyuki
  10. Stark steigende Energiepreise – Optionen für eine Entlastung von Haushalten und Unternehmen By Josef Baumgartner; Gabriel Felbermayr; Claudia Kettner; Angela Köppl; Daniela Kletzan-Slamanig; Simon Loretz; Margit Schratzenstaller
  11. Consumer Spending in the Covid-19 Pandemic: Evidence from Card Transactions in Latvia By Ludmila Fadejeva; Boriss Siliverstovs; Karlis Vilerts; Anete Brinke
  12. Integrating Sustainable Trade Principles in Uzbekistan By Rahmetov, Anvar; Rakhmetova, Malika
  13. "Is Greece on the Road to Economic Recovery" By Dimitri B. Papadimitriou; Nikos Rodousakis; Gennaro Zezza

  1. By: Gabriel Felbermayr; Hendrik Mahlkow; Alexander Sandkamp
    Abstract: With ever-increasing political tensions between China and Russia on one side and the EU and the US on the other, it only seems a matter of time until protectionist policies cause a decoupling of global value chains. This paper uses a computable general equilibrium trade model calibrated with the latest version of the GTAP database to simulate the effect of doubling non-tariff barriers - both unilateral and reciprocal - between the two blocks on trade and welfare. Imposing trade barriers almost completely eliminates bilateral imports. In addition, changes in price levels lead to higher imports and lower exports of the imposing country group from and to the rest of the world. The targeted country group increases exports to the rest of the world and reduces imports. Welfare falls in all countries involved, suggesting that governments should strive to cooperate rather than turning away from each other. By imposing a trade war on Russia, the political West could inflict severe damage on the Russian economy because of the latter’s smaller relative size.
    Keywords: Trade, non-tariff barriers, global value chains, quantitative trade model, China, Russia, European Union
    JEL: F11 F13 F14 F17
    Date: 2022–02
  2. By: Fachrie, Muhammad (The University of Jakarta)
    Abstract: This research analyzes how Switzerland faces dilemmatic options in responding to the European Union Sanctions towards Russia in the crisis of Ukraine. Switzerland faces dilemmatic options, because it has good political and economic European Union. In this research, journals, books and reports are collected and used as data and theory in order to analyze the problem. Eventually, this research found that Switzerland decides to not directly relations with the European Union (EU) and Russia. In this study, the qualitative method is used to analyze the attitudes and behavior of Switzerland as a country in considering its national interests. Neoliberalism is used as a framework in analyzing the attitude and behavior of Swiss in imposing sanctions towards Russia as a response of its national interest, because this country considers non-state actors in decision making process in relations between Switzerland and European Union. Finally, this research found that Switzerland decides not to unequivocally support EU sanctions against Russia and choices for pragmatic behaviors.
    Date: 2021–10–31
  3. By: Миллер Алия // Miller Aliya (National Bank of Kazakhstan); Кабдулов Аймырза // Kabdulov Aimyrza (National Bank of Kazakhstan)
    Abstract: В данной статье мы провели диагностику основных проблем низкой эффективности корпоративного банкротства в Казахстане, анализ международного опыта, а также представили рекомендации по улучшению законодательства и повышению эффективности института банкротства. Результаты показали, что в Казахстане корпоративное банкротство остаётся неэффективным и характеризуется крайне низкой возвратностью для кредиторов (менее 2%). Среди методов урегулирования преобладает банкротство (более 90%). Причины низкой эффективности заключаются в законодательных и институциональных недостатках. Позднее начало процедур урегулирования ввиду наличия законодательных барьеров приводит к ухудшению состояния должника, снижению стоимости активов и шансов оздоровления. Анализ законодательства также выявил недостаточные требования к раскрытию информации о должнике, неоправданные ограничения к мерам оздоровления, которые не позволяют участникам принять наиболее эффективные решения, отсутствие адекватных механизмов защиты залоговых кредиторов. Кроме того, на основании отчетности предприятий реального сектора за 2013-2019 годы (более – 211 тыс. наблюдений) показана неэффективность методики оценки финансовой устойчивости должника, применяемой администраторами. Выявлены иные законодательные и институциональные проблемы. По выявленным проблемам мы предложили рекомендации по улучшению законодательства и институциональной среды. Результаты данного исследования могут быть применены в рамках выработки экономических политик и законодательных поправок в области банкротства.
    Keywords: корпоративное банкротство, ликвидация, реабилитация, реструктуризация задолженности, причины банкротства, финансовая устойчивость должника, corporate bankruptcy, liquidation, rehabilitation, debt restructuring, causes of bankruptcy, financial stability of debtor
    JEL: G33 G38
    Date: 2022
  4. By: Vasily Astrov (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Rumen Dobrinsky (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Olga Pindyuk (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Leon Podkaminer (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw)
    Abstract: Chart of the month A fourth wave of COVID-19 taking a grip by Olga Pindyuk Opinion Corner Ostracism is a painful side effect of the Western sanctions on Belarus by Rumen Dobrinsky Following the forced landing of a Ryanair flight in May 2021, Western states imposed harsh economic sanctions on Belarus. For the first time, these included sanctions that targeted specific Belarusian industries and businesses, while Belarus’s access to international financial markets was further restricted. The sanctions also hurt ordinary Belarusians, due to the restrictions imposed on air traffic. These measures can be expected to trigger Belarus’s further orientation towards Russia. Searching for a new growth model in the Visegrád countries by Leon Podkaminer Although the Visegrád countries have done fairly well in recent decades, their current growth model is reaching its limits. A reliance on foreign direct investment-led export growth, especially based largely on cheap labour, does not seem likely to deliver an acceptable amount of convergence in coming years. This is even less likely under the currently restrictive fiscal framework, the recent (temporary) relaxation notwithstanding. A real breakthrough may require a radical overhaul of the basic economic paradigms at the EU level. The Georgian economy caught between Russia and the EU by Vasily Astrov The Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement (DCFTA) with the EU has so far brought Georgia few economic benefits. There has been little trade reorientation, and sizeable inflows of foreign trade investment into the productive sector have failed to materialise. Given that membership of NATO and the EU is unrealistic for Georgia in the foreseeable future, a conceivable alternative could be a neutral political status. That could allow Georgia to benefit from increased trade links with Russia, without sacrificing its ostensibly pro-European economic policy course. Monthly and quarterly statistics for Central, East and Southeast Europe
    Keywords: COVID-19 new cases, deaths from COVID-19, vaccination rate, economic sanctions, ostracism, trade re-orientation, neoliberal growth model, reliance on foreign trade, fiscal constraints, DCFTA, foreign direct investment, neutral political status
    Date: 2021–09
  5. By: Хакимжанов Сабит// Khakimzhanov Sabit; Миллер Алия // Miller Aliya (National Bank of Kazakhstan); Джусангалиева Камилла // Jussangaliyeva Kamilla (National Bank of Kazakhstan); Тазетдинова Динара // Tazetdinova Dinara
    Abstract: В этой статье мы описываем историю развития и регулирования казахстанского рынка розничных депозитов в традициях эмпирической экономики. Мы представляем историю рынка депозитов как состояние и поведение банков и вкладчиков в зависимости от взаимодействия регуляторной среды, правовых традиций, регуляторных требований, механизмов финансовой стабильности, регулирования ставок по депозитам, надзора и урегулирования несостоятельности. Анализ информирован теоретической и эмпирической литературой. Критерии оценки и фокус анализа менялись в зависимости от описываемой проблематики и включали способность рынка направить сбережения населения в банки, которые найдут им наиболее продуктивное применение, способность банков привлечь устойчивое фондирование, сформировать продуктовое пространство и правильно оценить его атрибуты, включая срочность и срок. Мы рассматриваем решения проблем и оцениваем их с позиции влияния на долгосрочное развитие рынка; способности устранять причину проблемы, а не её внешние проявления. // In this paper we describe the history of the development and regulation of Kazakhstan’s retail deposit market in line with the empirical economics traditions. We present the history of the deposit market as the condition and behavior of banks and depositors depending on the interaction of the regulatory environment, legal traditions, regulatory requirements, financial stability mechanisms, regulation of deposit rates, supervision and insolvency resolution. The analysis is informed by theoretical and empirical literature. The evaluation criteria and the focus of the analysis varied depending on the described issues and included the ability of the market to transfer population savings to banks capable to use them most productively, the ability of banks to attract sustainable funding, develop a product space and correctly assess its attributes, including maturity and term. We consider solution of the problems and evaluate them based on impact on the long-term market development; the ability to eliminate the cause of the problem, not its external manifestations.
    Keywords: рынок депозитов, система гарантирования вкладов, механизм предельных ставок, агентство по гарантированию депозитов, Казахстанский фонд гарантирования депозитов, deposit market, deposit guarantee system, marginal rates, deposit guarantee agency, Kazakhstan Deposit Guarantee Fund
    JEL: E43 G21 G28
    Date: 2022
  6. By: Джусангалиева Камилла // Jussangaliyeva Kamilla (National Bank of Kazakhstan); Миллер Алия // Miller Aliya (National Bank of Kazakhstan); Хакимжанов Сабит // Khakimzhanov Sabit (National Bank of Kazakhstan)
    Abstract: В этой статье анализируется казахстанская практика внедрения пруденциальных нормативов ликвидности (LCR и NSFR), рекомендованных Базельским комитетом по банковскому надзору (БКБН). В статье проводится анализ соответствия казахстанских нормативов стандартам Базеля, оценивается эффект альтернативных интерпретаций, обсуждается информативность и эффективность нормативов для отражения рисков фондирования и улучшения рыночных практик управления ликвидностью, их взаимодействие с другими нормативами и обусловленность регуляторной и конкурентной средой. // This paper analyzes Kazakhstan's practice of implementing prudential liquidity standards (LCR and NSFR) recommended by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS). The paper analyzes the compliance of Kazakhstan's standards with Basel standards, evaluates the effect of alternative interpretations, discusses the informativeness and effectiveness of standards to reflect funding risks and improve market liquidity management practices, their interaction with other standards and the conditionality of the regulatory and competitive environment.
    Keywords: риски ликвидности и фондирования, Базель III, показатели краткосрочной ликвидности и чистого стабильного финансирования (LCR, NSFR), liquidity and funding risks, Basel III, a liquidity coverage ratio and a net stable funding ratio, LCR, NSFR
    JEL: G01 G21 G28 G32
    Date: 2022
  7. By: Anatoliy Kostruba (Vasyl Stefanyk Precarpathian National University); M.K. Galyantych
    Abstract: The sports order is formed, including a huge network of various institutions, organizations and regulators, cooperation and participation of public and private entities at various levels, and has its own judicial system, which is based on the International Court of Arbitration for Sport in Lausanne. It is the autonomy of the sports law and order that presupposes the existence of a system of jurisdictional bodies whose activities are aimed at considering disputes in the relevant sphere of relations. At the same time, despite the integrity of the system of sports law and order in relation to public law and order, the internal organizational unity, in particular, the process of resolving disputes in sports relations is quite unbalanced. In the vast majority of cases, the main aspect of the federation is the development of professional sports as such. At the same time, the issues of more detailed legal regulation of relations in the field of professional sports, their protection remain undisclosed, or disclosed in fragments. The above indicates the need for clearer legal regulation of activities in the field of professional sports, in particular in terms of issues raised. In this regard, the observance of two conditions is disputable: Firstly, the possibility of exercising the public organization's powers to regulate the professional sphere. Secondly, ensuring objectivity and impartiality in the consideration of disputes, the outcome of which also affects the interests of the federation as a subject of relations in the field of professional sports.
    Abstract: Спортивний порядок утворюється в тому числі величезною мережею різних інститутів, організацій і регу-ляторів, співпрацею та участю публічних і приватних суб'єктів різних рівнів, а також має свою власну судову систему, в основі якої знаходиться Міжнародний спортивний арбітражний суд в м Лозанні. Саме автономність спортивного правопорядку передбачає наявність системи юрисдикційних органів, діяльність яких спрямована на розгляд суперечок у відповідній сфері відносин. При цьому, не дивлячись на цілісність системи спортивного правопорядку щодо правопорядку публічного, внутрішнє організаційне єдність, зокрема, процесу вирішення спо-рів у відносинах спорту досить розбалансовано. У більшості випадків основний аспект діяльності федерації зводиться до розвитку професійного спорту як такого. При цьому питання більш детальної правової регла-ментації відносин у сфері професійного спорту, їх захисту залишаються не розкритими, або розкриті фраг-ментарно. Викладене свідчить про необхідність більш чіткої нормативно-правової регламентації діяльності в сфері професійного спорту, зокрема в аспекті порушених питань. У цьому ключі спірним є дотримання двох умов: По-перше, можливість здійснення громадською організацією повноважень щодо нормативного регулюван-ня професійної сфери. По-друге, забезпечення об'єктивності і неупередженості при розгляді спорів, результат яких також впливає на інтереси федерації як суб'єкта відносин у сфері професійного спорту.
    Keywords: lex sportive,sports law,sports dispute,professional sports,self-regulatory organizations,sports federations,sports arbitration,sports legal relations,Civil law doctrine
    Date: 2022–01–27
  8. By: Julia Bock-Schappelwein; Peter Huber
    Abstract: Auf Basis bisher bekannter Ergebnisse sowie vorliegender Studien des WIFO zu früheren Zuwanderungs- und Flüchtlingswellen werden die weitere Entwicklung der Fluchtbewegungen aus der Ukraine nach Österreich sowie die daraus resultierenden Herausforderungen diskutiert. Österreich sollte zwar nicht primäres Zielland dieser Fluchtbewegung werden, dennoch ist angesichts des Umfangs der bisherigen Flüchtlingszahlen zu erwarten, dass die Zahl der Flüchtlinge aus der Ukraine in den nächsten Wochen weiter deutlich ansteigt. Die zentrale daraus entstehende Herausforderung besteht darin, die für die Betreuung der Flüchtlinge notwendigen Voraussetzungen in den Bereichen Wohnen, Schule, Gesundheit und Arbeit sicherzustellen.
    Date: 2022–03–22
  9. By: Taguchi, Hiroyuki
    Abstract: This study aims to examine the energy-use inefficiency in the Central Asian (CA) countries by using the analytical framework of the energy-environmental Kuznets curve (EEKC). This study’s contribution to the literature is to explicitly target the CA countries in the EEKC analysis in the first place. The empirical analyses identified the energy-use inefficiency of Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and Kazakhstan, and could show the contributions of the weak policy governance as well as the natural resource abundance to their energy-use inefficiency. This analytical result could also be endorsed by the Uzbekistan case. Thus, the policy implication is that there would be much room for these countries to improve their energy-use efficiency by enhancing their performances of energy policies.
    Keywords: energy-use inefficiency, policy governance, Central Asia, energy-environmental Kuznets curve, and Uzbekistan
    JEL: O53 Q43
    Date: 2022–02
  10. By: Josef Baumgartner; Gabriel Felbermayr (WIFO); Claudia Kettner; Angela Köppl; Daniela Kletzan-Slamanig (WIFO); Simon Loretz; Margit Schratzenstaller
    Abstract: Die Energiepreise sind bereits 2021 im Zuge der wirtschaftlichen Erholung nach dem COVID-19-bedingten Wirtschaftseinbruch deutlich angestiegen. Angesichts der Kriegshandlungen in der Ukraine gewinnen weitere über die bereits in den letzten Wochen hinaus beschlossenen Maßnahmen zur Entlastung der Konsumentinnen und Konsumenten sowie der Unternehmen an Dringlichkeit. Wie in vielen anderen Ländern werden derzeit auch in Österreich eine Reihe von Entlastungsoptionen diskutiert. Besonders intensiv wurden in der jüngsten öffentlichen Debatte zwei Maßnahmen gefordert: die Verschiebung der für Juli 2022 geplanten Einführung einer CO 2 -Bepreisung sowie die Reduktion des Mehrwertsteuersatzes für Energie. Diese beiden Optionen stellen sich aber aus mehreren Gründen als wenig tauglich dar. Wesentlich geeigneter sind gezieltere und treffsicherere Maßnahmen zur Abfederung des Kaufkraftverlustes.
    Keywords: Energiepreise, Inflation, Entlastungsmaßnahmen, Mehrwertsteuer, CO2-Bepreisung
    Date: 2022–03–15
  11. By: Ludmila Fadejeva (Bank of Latvia); Boriss Siliverstovs (Bank of Latvia); Karlis Vilerts (Bank of Latvia); Anete Brinke (Bank of Latvia)
    Abstract: We use a novel card transaction data from the Latvijas Banka to study the consumption response to the Covid-19 pandemic in Latvia throughout three separate waves of the pandemic. We find that card transaction activity fell similarly in all three waves. There is also some suggestive evidence that during the second and third waves of the pandemic, the consumption response was largely caused by the containment measures instead of the behavioural adjustment of consumers. The consumption response varied greatly across different sectors with the Airlines and Entertainment sectors faring the worst. However, the situation was not homogeneous during the three waves of the pandemic, given the changing composition of the containment measures. We show that merchants with a higher share of online transactions in the prepandemic period fared better than others during the second and the third waves of the pandemic. Similarly, we also find evidence that investment in online platforms during the initial phases of the pandemic seems to have resulted in better resilience in the following waves. Finally, we show that the nowcasting model with card transaction data outperforms all benchmark models when it comes to retail nowcasting and yields a notable improvement in forecasting metrics.
    Keywords: card transactions, consumer spending, Covid-19, retail trade nowcasting
    JEL: E21 E27 C32 C53
    Date: 2022–02–15
  12. By: Rahmetov, Anvar; Rakhmetova, Malika
    Abstract: This article is an assessment of the current state of affairs in Uzbekistan’s SDG policies. It is based on an analysis of UN compiled data on SDGs, as well as an overview of Uzbekistan’s key SDG-related strategies, as well as unstructured interviews with a dozen respondents. Desk research suggests that Government’s key SDG priorities remain in export promotion, job creation and increased economic competitiveness. Interviews suggest that sustainability is understood as political and economic stability, economic growth, environmental conservation and rule of law. From the SDG issues, respondents identified SME and female entrepreneur support, employment generation and e-commerce as the ones with the highest priority, while concurring that corruption, monopolies and market distortions, low policy implementation capacity and limited public awareness of sustainability were the greatest obstacles. The greatest strength of Uzbekistan in integrating international trade into SDGs is the current reform momentum. Significantly improved relations with neighbors is another strength, with a window of opportunity to improve on regional trade, transit, connectivity, as well as water management and water-energy nexus. The greatest challenge, on the other hand, remains the government’s focus on exports, FDI, job creation and GDP growth, even if at the expense of the other SDGs. The other significant challenge is the insistence on import substitution and local production, and economic mercantilism in general, at the expense of the free-trade, value-chain-integration-based development model. Agriculture and food production, energy and e-commerce will be the sectors with highest potential in scaling up sustainable trade principles.
    Keywords: sustainable trade, SDGs, international trade, Uzbekistan, sustainability, energy, economy, agriculture, e-commerce
    JEL: O19 O24 O53
    Date: 2022–01–15
  13. By: Dimitri B. Papadimitriou; Nikos Rodousakis; Gennaro Zezza
    Abstract: In this strategic analysis, Institute President Dimitri B. Papadimitriou, Research Scholar Gennaro Zezza, and Research Associate Nikos Rodousakis analyze how the Greek economy started to recover from the shock of the COVID-19 pandemic and the prospects of continuing and sustaining its recovery. A key contribution is linked to tourism, which increased significantly in 2021, notwithstanding the pandemic, but was still very much below its 2019 level; it is expected, however, to continue its recovery in the current year. In addition, a key role will be played by NGEU funds and the Greek government's capacity to use such funds in an effective and timely manner when starting and completing the already approved capital projects. A potential threat is linked to the possibility that persistent inflation will drive up the cost of borrowing, reducing the government's fiscal space. Another "known unknown"--not considered in this report--is the geopolitical turbulence emanating from the Ukraine–Russian conflict, adding an additional layer of uncertainty to the medium-term prospects for Europe and Greece.
    Date: 2022–03

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