nep-cis New Economics Papers
on Confederation of Independent States
Issue of 2022‒03‒14
thirteen papers chosen by
Alexander Harin
Modern University for the Humanities

  1. Possible Effects Of A Russian-Chinese Joint SWIFT System On The Eurasian Economy And The World Trade System By Tulun, Teoman Ertuğrul
  2. Do Wages Grow with Experience? Deciphering the Russian Puzzle By Chernina, Eugenia; Gimpelson, Vladimir
  3. Corporate social and environmental responsibilities in the Arctic Zone of the Russian Federation: theoretical and methodological approaches By Nikolai Bobylev; Sébastien Gadal; Alexander Sergunin; Veli-Pekka Tynkkynen
  4. The Republic of Kazakhstan: Initiator Of The Organization Of Turkic States By Tulun, Teoman Ertuğrul
  5. Меры продовольственной политики в условиях COVID-19 в Центральной Азии и на Кавказе: Подведение итогов первого года пандемии By Djanibekov, Nodir; Herzfeld, Thomas; Arias, Pedro Marcelo
  6. Value at Risk Estimation For the BRICS Countries : A Comparative Study By Ameni Ben Salem; Imene Safer; Islem Khefacha
  7. Дилемма бензоколонки: почему неэффективная промышленность лучше, чем никакой промышленности вообще. By Spirin, Victor
  8. German Economy Winter 2021 - Recovery temporarily on hold By Ademmer, Martin; Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens; Groll, Dominik; Jannsen, Nils; Kooths, Stefan; Meuchelböck, Saskia; Sonnenberg, Nils
  9. Food policy measures in response to COVID-19 in Central Asia and the Caucasus: Taking stock after the first year of the pandemic By Djanibekov, Nodir; Herzfeld, Thomas; Arias, Pedro Marcelo
  10. Instıtute of oblıgatory consolıdatıon of corporate control: corporate rıghts restrıctıon By Anatoliy Kostruba
  11. Coronavirus Disease 2019 and the Global Economy By Hakan Yilmazkuday
  12. Covid-19, Rural Poverty, and Women’s Role in Decision-Making: Evidence from Khatlon Province in Tajikistan By Akramov, Kamiljon; Carrillo, Lucia; Kosec, Katrina
  13. Deutsche Wirtschaft im Winter 2021 - Erholung vorerst ausgebremst By Ademmer, Martin; Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens; Groll, Dominik; Jannsen, Nils; Kooths, Stefan; Meuchelböck, Saskia; Sonnenberg, Nils

  1. By: Tulun, Teoman Ertuğrul
    Abstract: The Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunications, called SWIFT, is considered a cornerstone of global transactions. At its founding, SWIFT membership amounted to 239 banks from fifteen Western countries. Past examples show that SWIFT can also be used as a weapon, even though it is nominally independent. Recent statements indicate that the US and the EU are seriously considering removing Russia from the SWIFT system in case of tension. In fact, back in 2014 after Russia annexed Ukraine's Crimea Peninsula, there were calls to cut Russia off from SWIFT. In response, Russia developed a its domestic financial-communications platform. It should be taken into account that in case certain Russian banks are disconnected from SWIFT, these Russian banks and multinationals looking for ways to move money may find a warm welcome in the growing Chinese Cross-border Interbank Payment System (CIPS). In recent years, there has been a significant increase in both the EU and the US use of economic sanctions to force other countries they consider as adversaries "in line" with Western interests. Being in the same alliance no longer suffices in guaranteeing exclusion from such economic sanctions. On the contrary, such sanctions have been turned into a teaching lesson even to allies, and it is undeniable that this behavior has reached a level that will shake even the strongest alliances. It should also be kept in mind that this contemptuous approach erodes the patience of the public opinions of the countries that are not included in the Western World or constantly excluded despite being in that group. It is unlikely that the results of employing sanctions, which has become a habit for the US and the EU, to the most significant countries of the world, such as Russia and China, in terms of their military power as well as their economies, will lead to beneficial results. The developments in the coming period may serve as a reminder that the Western world must act with common sense to avoid sowing divisions in the world trade system.
    Date: 2021–12–21
  2. By: Chernina, Eugenia (NRU HSE, Moscow); Gimpelson, Vladimir (CLMS, Higher School of Economics, Moscow)
    Abstract: The study explores how wages grow with experience in the Russian Federation. In all available cross-sectional data, the trajectory of the observed wage–experience profile is flat, peaks early, and declines sharply afterwards. This shape looks puzzling since it differs starkly from that observed in both developed and developing countries. We show that a proper interpretation of the wage–experience profile is hindered by the APC problem, when the effects of time, cohort, and experience are mixed. Our study uses data from the RLMS-HSE household survey covering the years 2000-2019. Relying on human capital theory, we apply a procedure suggested by Heckman et al. (1998) and advanced in Lagakos et al. (2018) to disentangle the APC effects. With certain assumptions concerning human capital depreciation due to aging, our results show that Russian wages do grow monotonically with experience. However, this growth is partially offset by the cohort effect that that proceeds in the opposite direction, thus reflecting massive depreciation of the human capital of workers from older cohorts. Meanwhile, the time effect mirrors the general GDP path as well as all booms and busts over the period.
    Keywords: the human capital, wages, experience, wage–experience profile, Russia
    JEL: J24 J31
    Date: 2022–02
  3. By: Nikolai Bobylev (SPBU - Saint Petersburg State University); Sébastien Gadal (North-Eastern Federal University, ESPACE - Études des Structures, des Processus d’Adaptation et des Changements de l’Espace - UCA - Université Côte d'Azur - AU - Avignon Université - UNS - Université Nice Sophia Antipolis (... - 2019) - COMUE UCA - COMUE Université Côte d'Azur (2015-2019) - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - AMU - Aix Marseille Université, AMU - Aix Marseille Université); Alexander Sergunin (SPBU - Saint Petersburg State University, MGIMO - Moscow State Institute of International Relations); Veli-Pekka Tynkkynen (University of Helsinki)
    Abstract: The main research objective of this study is to examine various theoretical approaches to understanding the nature of corporate social and environmental responsibility in the Arctic Zone of the Russian Federation (AZRF), as well as the motivation of businesses to make commitments in this area. Methodologically, the study is based on the structural-functional and discursive approaches that allow us to reveal the internal features of the Russian and foreign discourses on the social and environmental responsibility of business in the Russian Arctic. The scientific contribution of this study is that as a result of the work carried out, it reveals the specificity of theories that treat corporate social and environmental responsibility as a form of social partnership or a way of sharing benefits (economic sociology); the behaviour of corporations as "good citizens" of society (sociology and political science); part of the strategy of corporate risk management and competitiveness (corporate management) and/or sustainable development (economic planning, ecology, state and municipal management, social work). Another scientific contribution of this study is that identifies three groups of motives that drive big business in the case of taking on social and environmental obligations in the AZRF: the desire of companies to increase their attractiveness as business partners, to justify the legitimacy of their economic activities in the region and to take into account the so-called political costs in order to reduce the likelihood of the state introducing uncomfortable rules and regulations for companies. The results obtained can be used in the activities of business units responsible for the social and environmental policy of companies in the Russian Arctic, as well as regional and municipal authorities regulating the activities of large industrial and extractive companies in the Far North.
    Abstract: Основная исследовательская задача данного исследования заключается в изучении различных теоретических подходов к пониманию природы корпоративной социальной и экологической ответственности в Арктической зоне Российской Федерации (АЗРФ), а также мотивации бизнеса к принятию обязательств в этой сфере. Методологически исследование базируется на структурно-функциональном и дискурсивном подходах, позволяющих выявить внутренние особенности российского и зарубежного дискурсов о социальной и экологической ответственности бизнеса в российской Арктике. Научный вклад данного исследования состоит в том, что в результате проведенной работы выявлена специфика теорий, рассматривающих корпоративную социальную и экологическую ответственность как форму социального партнерства или способ распределения благ (экономическая социология); поведение корпораций как "хороших граждан" общества (социология и политология); часть стратегии управления корпоративными рисками и конкурентоспособностью (корпоративный менеджмент) и/или устойчивого развития (экономическое планирование, экология, государственное и муниципальное управление, социальная работа). Другой научный вклад данного исследования заключается в том, что выявлены три группы мотивов, которые движут крупным бизнесом в случае принятия на себя социальных и экологических обязательств в АЗРФ: желание компаний повысить свою привлекательность как деловых партнеров, обосновать легитимность своей экономической деятельности в регионе и учесть так называемые политические издержки, чтобы снизить вероятность введения государством неудобных для компаний правил и норм. Полученные результаты могут быть использованы в деятельности бизнес-подразделений, отвечающих за социальную и экологическую политику компаний в российской Арктике, а также региональных и муниципальных органов власти, регулирующих деятельность крупных промышленных и добывающих компаний на Крайнем Севере.
    Keywords: Corporate social and environmental responsibility,Arctic zone,Sustainable development,Theory of development,Russian Federation,Corporate social and environmental responsibility
    Date: 2021–01
  4. By: Tulun, Teoman Ertuğrul
    Abstract: The Cooperation Council of Turkic Speaking States (Turkic Council) was founded on October 3, 2009, in Nakhchivan as an international organization to promote comprehensive cooperation among the Turkic States. The founding members of the Organization of Turkic States are Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Turkey. The Organization of Turkic States was founded in November 2021 in the Turkic Council's 8th Summit in Istanbul. In this context, it is possible to say that the Organization of Turkic States has been the culmination of the "Heads of State Summits of Turkish Speaking Countries" since 1992. Kazakhstan is a distinguished member of the Organization of Turkic States. The stability and peace of Kazakhstan is of foremost importance not only in the context of Central Asia but also in terms of security and stability for the Turkic world. In this context, the developments that caused turmoil in Kazakhstan are closely followed by the Organization of Turkic States. We wish that the coming days will bring peace, tranquility and stability to Kazakhstan.
    Date: 2022–01–05
  5. By: Djanibekov, Nodir; Herzfeld, Thomas; Arias, Pedro Marcelo
    Abstract: Несмотря на изначальные опасения по поводу катастрофических последствий, пандемия COVID-19 и связанные с ней карантинные меры не оказали существенного влияния на сельское хозяйство в регионах Центральной Азии и на Кавказе. Однако они повлияли на продовольственные производственно-сбыто-вые цепочки через спрос и логистику. Цены на продовольствие были нестабильными в течении всего 2020 года и особенно высокими в странах, где произошло обесценивание национальной валюты. Однако продолжающаяся пандемия COVID-19, представляющая собой гуманитарный кризис и кризис в области здравоохранения, несет все больший риск для экономики стран Центральной Азии и Кавказа. Последствия пандемии глобального масштаба в сочетании с сокращением экспорта нефти и газа и денежных переводов мигрантов могут препятствовать восстановлению и подорвать экономическую стабильность в регионе. Лицам, определяющим политику, следует избегать нарушения внутренних цепочек поставок продовольствия и создания торговых барьеров посредством запретов и квот на экспорт. В то же время они должны обеспечивать продовольственную безопасность и снижать волатильность цен за счет диверсифицикации торговых связей. Более глубокие внутренние цепочки создания стоимости и эффективное управление государственными и частными запасами продовольствия лучше подготовят страны к преодолению последствий продолжающейся пандемии. Для более обоснованных и целенаправленных правительственных мер по минимизации последствий пандемии необходимы усовершенствованные национальные системы исследований и мониторинга в области питания, а также своевременное наличие данных, касающихся не только производства, но и других звеньев агропродовольственной цепочки.
    Date: 2021
  6. By: Ameni Ben Salem (Fseg Sousse, University of Sousse); Imene Safer; Islem Khefacha (LaREMFiQ, IHEC of Sousse)
    Date: 2021–12–17
  7. By: Spirin, Victor
    Abstract: Центральная догма экономики подразумевает, что наилучший экономический результат достигается, когда каждый рациональный агент стремится получить наилучший доступный товар за наинизшую возможную цену. В этой статье мы приведём простую иллюстрацию того, когда эта догма приводит к неоптимальному результату в масштабах экономики государства. Эта иллюстрация покажет, что поведение экономических агентов в развивающейся стране в условиях свободной торговли с развитыми странами эквивалентно хорошо известной в теории игр Дилемме заключённого. Каждый агент, принимая оптимальное для себя решение независимо от других агентов, приводит экономику к неоптимальному равновесию Нэша.
    Keywords: Теория игр, равновесие Нэша, теория сравнительных преимуществ, свободная торговля.
    JEL: F6 F63
    Date: 2022–02–19
  8. By: Ademmer, Martin; Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens; Groll, Dominik; Jannsen, Nils; Kooths, Stefan; Meuchelböck, Saskia; Sonnenberg, Nils
    Abstract: The recovery of the German economy is interrupted once again. In the winter, the new Covid-19 wave will particularly hit activity in contact-intensive service sectors as in previous waves. As a result, there will be a setback in private consumer spending and probably also small declines in GDP. To the extent that the burdens of the pandemic ease in the spring, a strong recovery will set in, similar to the pattern observed this year. Economic momentum will likely be particularly high as the supply bottlenecks, which are massively dampening industrial production in this year, are expected to ease. Overall, the renewed slowdown in the recovery process caused by the pandemic will probably be larger than we had expected in our autumn economic outlook. However, the setback will be not as severe as last winter. In 2022, GDP will probably increase by 4 percent and thus less strongly than we had expected three months ago (5.1 percent). For 2023, we revise GDP growth upwards to 3.3 percent (autumn outlook: 2.3 percent). This year, GDP will increase by 2.6 percent. Inflation will remain high for the time being, also because supply bottlenecks continue to increase manufacturing costs and tighten the supply of consumer goods. At the same time, private households have accumulated additional savings of around 200 billion euros since the beginning of the pandemic and therefore have a rather high willingness to pay. Consumer price inflation will probably be around 3 percent both this and next year, before easing again in 2023. The public budget deficit will fall noticeably from 3.8 percent in relation to GDP in 2021 to 1.8 percent in 2022 due to the reduced burden of the pandemic. However, the budgets are still expected to close with a deficit of 1.4 percent in 2023.
    Keywords: world economy,advanced economies,emerging economies,monetary policy,Japan,Russia,ASEAN
    Date: 2021
  9. By: Djanibekov, Nodir; Herzfeld, Thomas; Arias, Pedro Marcelo
    Abstract: Despite initial concerns of catastrophic outcomes, the COVID-19 pandemic and the resulting lockdown measures did not severely affect regional agriculture in Central Asia and the Caucasus. They did, however, affect food supply chains in terms of demand and logistics. Food prices were volatile throughout 2020 and particularly high in countries with currency depreciation. However, the on-going COVID-19 pandemic as a human and health crisis presents an ever increasing risk to the economies of Central Asia and the Caucasus. The global implications of the pandemic, combined with a decline in oil and gas exports and migrant remittances, could impede recovery and undermine economic stability in the region. Policymakers should avoid disrupting domestic food supply chains and placing barriers to trade through export bans and quotas. At the same time, they must ensure food security and reduced price volatility through diversified trade networks. Deeper domestic value chains and efficient management of public and private food stock reserves will better prepare countries to face the continuing effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. Better-informed and targeted policy responses to a pandemic require improved national systems of nutrition research and monitoring, and timely availability of data not only relating to production but also to other levels of the agrifood chain.
    Date: 2021
  10. By: Anatoliy Kostruba (Vasyl Stefanyk Precarpathian National University)
    Abstract: Today in many countries around the world the procedure of the compulsory purchase of the shares of minority shareholders (squeeze-out) by majority shareholders is an effective means of protection of rights of large investors and a widely used tactical technique that effectively regulates the process of corporate governance in business organizations, a toolkit to prevent corporate conflicts between members and business paralysis. While emphasizing the relevance of the attempt to limit the ownership rights of minority shareholders in the interest of the majority, the court concluded that the application of a squeeze-out can be justified, and the initiation of this procedure does not indicate abuse of the economic position by the majority shareholder. The interest of the majority shareholder in the free exercise of entrepreneurial activity may be placed above the interests of the minority shareholders, provided that the latter are protected against abuse of the economic forces by the majority shareholder, as well as provided that compensation is paid for the lost shares. Supporters of the opposite point of view argue that the monopolization of large blocks of shares is a threat to the functioning of the Ukrainian economy, its investment climate and the activity of the stock market. Georgia's administration of law is illustrative. The Constitutional Court of Georgia in its decision d/d May 18, 2007 on the constitutionality of article 53-3 of the Business Act found that the squeeze-out of minority shares is not a public need and a legitimate goal, as it provides for certain restrictions (minority ownership rights). The institute of forced termination of ownership is not a new phenomenon for civil law. It is based on the idea of restricting the right to hold, use, and dispose of the property of an individual owner in the interest of the vast majority. Rights equally guarantee the protection of the interests of society as a whole, as well as the interests of individual groups that may be affected in the process of exercising the powers of an authorized person. This objectively requires the correlation of the individual with the collective, and the private with the public. Constitutional and legal guarantees of an individual's private property right cannot override the corresponding guarantees granted to a group of persons acting in the general interest. The conflict between them shall be resolved by establishing the priority of the majority over the interests of the minority. The corresponding termination may not substantially prejudice interests of the minority shareholder because of the organizational and economic disproportionality of the "energy consumption" associated with holding insignificant block of shares, participation in the affairs of the corporation and the amount of the corporate rights issuer's profits in favor of the minority shareholder. The aforesaid demonstrates existing reasonable legal and economic prerequisites for interference with the peaceful ownership of property, which is not only consistent with the economic interests of the group of individuals, but also is proportional to its objectives and fair in view of the obligatory compensatory nature of the existing deprivation in favor of the holder of an insignificant block of shares of a joint stock company.
    Keywords: freeze-out,Squeeze-out,Sell-out,Corporative governance,Corporation,Legal entities of commercial law,Legal entities,Partnership,Kostruba
    Date: 2021–12–21
  11. By: Hakan Yilmazkuday (Department of Economics, Florida International University)
    Abstract: Using daily data on the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases from China and the rest of the world, this paper investigates the corresponding effects on the global economic activity. The empirical results based on a structural vector autoregression model using crude oil prices (COP) and the Baltic Exchange Dry Index (BDI) are consistent with increases in COVID-19 cases acting as negative demand shocks in the global economic activity (reflected as reductions in COP) and negative supply shocks in the global transportation of commodities (reflected as increases in BDI). The historical decomposition results further suggest that the effects of COVID-19 cases on COP and BDI have been mostly observed in the early COVID-19 period.
    Keywords: COVID-19, Coronavirus, Baltic Dry Index, Crude Oil Prices
    JEL: F60 I10
    Date: 2022–02
  12. By: Akramov, Kamiljon; Carrillo, Lucia; Kosec, Katrina
    Abstract: The covid-19 pandemic has had devastating effects globally; it has caused health crises and economic recessions, leading unemployment to spike and disrupting food systems and supply chains. In the heavily remittance-dependent context of Tajikistan, however, migration has continued – and appears to have become increasingly dominated by men. In this context, what has happened to women’s perceptions of economic prospects, as well as the well-being of their households? How has women’s involvement in decision-making evolved? And to what extent do out-migration or in-migration of household members predict changes in women’s decision-making power? We consider these questions using a September – October 2020 phone survey deployed in Khatlon province, Tajikistan that successfully tracked 87% of households that had been surveyed in person in 2018. We find that both genders have similar expectations for their agricultural production (harvests), but women are slightly more likely to identify concerns with rising prices and a lack of access to financial services. Overall, we find little in the way of evidence that women’s involvement in intra-household decision-making declined as a result of the pandemic—though this is from a low base. However, we find that women are less likely than are men to report improvements in women’s decision-making authority. Further, we find that out-migration of household members, which is dominated by men, is associated with improvements in women’s decision-making power, particularly with respect to decisions about how to spend household income. Overall, our results point to the need for additional analyses of the gendered impacts of shocks on women in the Central Asia region.
    Date: 2021–12–30
  13. By: Ademmer, Martin; Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens; Groll, Dominik; Jannsen, Nils; Kooths, Stefan; Meuchelböck, Saskia; Sonnenberg, Nils
    Abstract: Die Erholung der deutschen Wirtschaft wird abermals ausgebremst. Das Infektionsgeschehen im Winterhalbjahr hemmt wie in früheren Wellen besonders die Aktivität in den kontaktintensiven Dienstleistungsbranchen. Im Ergebnis wird es zu einem Rückschlag bei den privaten Konsumausgaben kommen und wohl auch zu geringen Rückgängen beim Bruttoinlandsprodukt. Wenn die Belastungen seitens der Pandemie mit dem Frühjahr nachlassen, wird ähnlich wie im laufenden Jahr eine kräftige Erholung einsetzen. Die wirtschaftliche Aktivität dürfte dann auch deshalb besonders viel Schwung entfalten, weil die Lieferengpässe, die die Industrieproduktion derzeit massiv belasten, voraussichtlich nachlassen. Insgesamt wird die durch die Pandemie verursachte Delle im Erholungsprozess wohl größer ausfallen als wir in unserer Herbstprognose unterstellt hatten. Der Rückschlag wird aber bei Weitem nicht so gravierend sein, wie im vergangenen Winterhalbjahr. Im kommenden Jahr wird das Bruttoinlandsprodukt demzufolge mit 4 Prozent nicht so kräftig zulegen wie vor drei Monaten erwartet (5,1 Prozent), dafür aber im Jahr 2023 mit 3,3 Prozent deutlich stärker (Herbstprognose: 2,3 Prozent). Für das laufende Jahr zeichnet sich ein Anstieg von 2,6 Prozent ab. Die Inflation wird vorerst hoch bleiben, auch weil die Lieferengpässe weiterhin die Herstellungskosten erhöhen und das Konsumgüterangebot verknappen. Gleichzeitig haben die privaten Haushalte seit dem Beginn der Pandemie zusätzliche Ersparnisse in Höhe von rund 200 Mrd. Euro angehäuft und besitzen deshalb eine recht hohe Zahlungsbereitschaft. Der Verbraucherpreisanstieg wird sowohl im laufenden als auch im kommenden Jahr wohl bei rund 3 Prozent liegen, bevor er sich im Jahr 2023 wieder verringert. Das Defizit der öffentlichen Haushalte wird im kommenden Jahr aufgrund der nachlassenden Belastungen durch die Pandemie spürbar von 3,8 Prozent in Relation zum Bruttoinlandsprodukt im laufenden Jahr auf 1,8 Prozent sinken. Voraussichtlich werden die Haushalte jedoch auch das Jahr 2023 mit 1,4 Prozent noch deutlich im Defizit abschließen.
    Keywords: Weltwirtschaft,Fortgeschrittene Volkswirtschaften,Schwellenländer,Geldpolitik,Japan,Russland,ASEAN
    Date: 2021

This nep-cis issue is ©2022 by Alexander Harin. It is provided as is without any express or implied warranty. It may be freely redistributed in whole or in part for any purpose. If distributed in part, please include this notice.
General information on the NEP project can be found at For comments please write to the director of NEP, Marco Novarese at <>. Put “NEP” in the subject, otherwise your mail may be rejected.
NEP’s infrastructure is sponsored by the School of Economics and Finance of Massey University in New Zealand.