nep-cis New Economics Papers
on Confederation of Independent States
Issue of 2022‒03‒07
six papers chosen by

  1. Analysis of problems in the development of the national single window mechanism in the Russian Federation By Agapova, Anna
  2. Determinants of Regional Raw Milk Prices in Russia By Kresova, Svetlana; Hess, Sebastian
  3. Predicting The Level Of Falsification Of Financial Statements In Russian Manufacturing Enterprises In 2012–2019 By Ksenia Ladygina
  4. Logistical Competition for Corn Shipments from the United States and Ukraine to Targeted International Market By Wilson, William W.; Lakkakula, Prithviraj; Bullock, David W.
  5. Gravity-Based Tools for Assessing the Impact of Tariff Changes By Gnutzmann–Mkrtchyan, Arevik; Hugot, Jules
  6. Has EU accession boosted patents performance in the EU-13? -- A critical evaluation using causal impact analysis with Bayesian structural time-series models By Agnieszka Kleszcz; Krzysztof Rusek

  1. By: Agapova, Anna
    Abstract: The article analyzed the problems of the development of the single window mechanism in Russia as a country of the EAEU.
    Keywords: single window, EAEU, information interaction
    JEL: F00
    Date: 2021–10–20
  2. By: Kresova, Svetlana; Hess, Sebastian
    Abstract: Drivers of regional milk price differences across Russian regions are difficult to determine due to limited data availability and restrictions on data collection. In this study, official data from Russian regions for the period from 2013 to 2018 was analysed based on 18 predictor variables in order to explain the regional raw milk price. Due to various data-based restrictions, the use of conventional panel regression models was limited and the analysis was therefore performed based on a Random Forest (RF) machine learning algorithm. Model training and hyperparameter optimization was performed on the training data set with time folds cross-validation. The findings of the study showed that the RF algorithm has a good predictive performance in the test data set even with the default RF values. Finally, the RF variable importance showed that income, gross regional product, livestock density, and milk yield are the four most important variables for explaining the variation in regional milk prices.
    Keywords: Agribusiness, International Development, Livestock Production/Industries
    Date: 2021–11–18
  3. By: Ksenia Ladygina (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: This paper considers the falsification of financial reports at Russian manufacturing enterprises in the period from 2012 to 2019. The factors are associated with the heterogeneity of estimates of falsified financial statements. We investigate the evolution of such reporting during the period under review. Two main lines of behavior of companies in relation to falsified corporate reporting are identified: either a consistently "honest" strategy, which is characteristic of no more than 30–50% of the enterprises, or situational behavior, when an enterprise provides either reliable or questionable data in certain years depending on their circumstances. For large and medium-sized manufacturing enterprises, the quality of the reporting provided has generally improved in the sanctions period of 2015–2019 compared to the pre-sanction period. Based on econometric calculations, we demonstrate that the main factors associated with the provision of inaccurate reporting are the size of the enterprise, and the growth rate of accounts receivable in previous years.
    Keywords: level of reporting falsification, sanctions, crisis, Beneish model, Roxas model, Russian companies
    JEL: F14 F51 L6 L25
  4. By: Wilson, William W.; Lakkakula, Prithviraj; Bullock, David W.
    Keywords: International Relations/Trade, Marketing
    Date: 2022–02–14
  5. By: Gnutzmann–Mkrtchyan, Arevik (Leibniz Universität Hannover); Hugot, Jules (Asian Development Bank)
    Abstract: This paper presents two empirical tools to quantify the impacts of tariff changes on bilateral trade and welfare. Both tools are rooted in the structural gravity literature. The first tool estimates the impact of tariff changes on bilateral trade for 5,020 products in a partial equilibrium framework. The second tool quantifies the impact on bilateral aggregate trade in a general equilibrium setup, allowing estimates of trade reallocation and welfare changes. These tools are used to estimate the impact of tariff changes affecting Armenia, including (i) the alignment with the external tariff of the Eurasian Economic Union, (ii) free trade agreements between the Eurasian Economic Union, and other economies—Iran and the People’s Republic of China, and (iii) the loss of beneficiary status for the Generalised Scheme of Preferences of the European Union.
    Keywords: gravity; Eurasian Economic Union; free trade agreements; generalised scheme of preferences; Armenia
    JEL: F13 F14 F15 F17
    Date: 2022–02–21
  6. By: Agnieszka Kleszcz; Krzysztof Rusek
    Abstract: Nowadays innovation is one of the main determinants of economic development. Patents are a key measure of innovation output, as patent indicators reflect the inventive performance of countries, technologies and firms. This paper provides new insights on the causal effects of the enlargement of the European Union (EU) by investigating the patents performance within the new EU member states (EU-13). The empirical results based on data collected from the OECD database from 1985-2017 and causal impact using a Bayesian structural time-series model (proposed by Google) point towards a conclusion that joining the EU has had a significant impact on patents performance in Romania, Estonia, Poland, Czech Republic, Croatia and Lithuania, although in the latter two countries the impact was negative. For the rest of the EU-13 countries there is no significant effect on patent performance. Whether the EU accession effect is significant or not, the EU-13 are far behind the EU-15 (countries which entered the EU before 2004) in terms of patent performance. The majority of patents (98.66\%) are assigned to the EU-15, with just 1.34\% of assignees belonging to the EU-13.
    Date: 2022–01

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