nep-cis New Economics Papers
on Confederation of Independent States
Issue of 2022‒02‒21
five papers chosen by

  1. Differences of Nutrition in the Elderly Population with Type 2 Diabetes in Romania, Russia and Japan By Georgeta Stoica-Marcu
  2. Who profits from windfalls in oil tax revenue? Inequality, protests, and the role of corruption By Alexeev, Michael; Zakharov, Nikita
  3. Global value chains of the EU member states: Policy options in the current debate By Kolev, Galina V.; Obst, Thomas
  4. Can EU carbon border adjustment measures propel WTO climate talks? By Gary Clyde Hufbauer; Jisun Kim (POSCO Research Institute; Jeffrey J. Schott
  5. Climate change, agriculture, and potential crop yields in Central Asia By Thomas, Timothy S.; Akramov, Kamiljon T.; Robertson, Richard D.; Nazareth, Vijay; Ilyasov, Jarilkasin

  1. By: Georgeta Stoica-Marcu (Ovidius University from Constanta, Romania)
    Abstract: Romania, Russia and Japan are 3 countries where the differences in nutrition are not very large, but which shock us by the increased number of diabetics in the elderly population over 70 years, countries with a low birth rate and an elderly population in addition to diabetes type II suffers from hypertension, cardiovascular disease, kidney disease, neurological disease and a lot of loneliness. Prevention and monitoring programs are deficient in Romania and Russia, but excel in Japan where the state has more responsibility for the elderly population, in a relatively short time, have led to new treatments and diets, which have come to prolong the life of the elderly diabetic, ignored by certain public health systems in certain countries with the lifestyle and the consequences of this lifestyle.
    Keywords: nutrition, diabetes, Yoshinori Ohsumi, and eating habits
    Date: 2021–06
  2. By: Alexeev, Michael; Zakharov, Nikita
    Abstract: We investigate the relationship between oil windfalls and income inequality using the subnational data of one of the resource-richest and most unequal countries in the world – Russia. While previous literature produced contradictory findings due to the use of an aggregate measure of oil rents mainly in cross-national settings, we focus exclusively on oil rents that accrue to the subnational governments across one country. Our estimation strategy takes advantage of the two specific features of Russian oil taxation: 1) the policy change when sharing oil extraction taxes with local budgets was discontinued; and 2) the oil tax formula being tied directly to the international oil prices making oil price shocks an exogenous measure of change in oil rents. When we look at the period with oil tax revenues shared with the regional governments, we find that oil windfalls had increased income inequality and benefited the wealthiest quintile of the population in regions with more intense rent-seeking. Further, positive price shocks combined with greater rent-seeking reduced the share of labor income but increased the income share from unidentified sources traditionally associated with corruption. These effects of oil windfalls disappeared after the Russian government discontinued oil tax revenue sharing with regional governments. Finally, we examine some political implications of rising inequality due to the appropriation of oil windfalls. We find a positive effect of rising inequality on the frequency of protests associated with grievances among the poor and disadvantaged social groups; this effect, however, exists only in relatively democratic regions.
    JEL: D63 D73 Q35 Q38 P48
    Date: 2022–01–25
  3. By: Kolev, Galina V.; Obst, Thomas
    Abstract: In 2020, EU companies imported intermediate products worth 2.4 trillion euros, which made up more than half of total merchandise imports of the EU. Compared to the pre-crisis year 2019, imports of intermediates decreased by 13 percent, partly driven by the lower fuel prices. A detailed analysis of trade in value added shows that in most EU countries more than half of the imported intermediate products come from other EU member states. Extra-EU sources of value added in domestic final demand and exports are particularly important in the smaller economies like Luxembourg and Malta, but also in the biggest EU member states Germany, France, Italy and Spain. Among the Non-EU countries, especially the USA, UK, China, and Russia contribute substantially in terms of value added to the production process of EU member states. The USA are the most important source of value added outside the EU for several countries like Ireland, the Netherlands, Belgium, Germany, France, Spain, etc. The UK is the top non-EU-provider of value added for Cyprus. China delivers the largest share of non-EU value added in some countries from Central and Eastern Europe like Slovenia, the Czech Republic and Poland. Russia is particularly important for the Baltic countries, Bulgaria and Slovakia. Among the EU member states, Germany is the most important source of value added for the domestic final demand and exports in most of the other EU countries - notable exceptions are Belgium and Ireland, where more value added comes from France than from Germany. The corona crisis has revealed the fragility of global value chains. Industries are increasingly and asymmetrically connected with each other. Value chains were internationalized to achieve efficiency and economies of scale. Outsourcing, offshoring and lean production lines with low inventory stocks, however, have made the European economy vulnerable to disruptions and shortages of supply chains. A disruption caused by an event such as the corona crisis can propagate along supply chains affecting direct and indirect suppliers as well as customers of disaster-stricken firms. Hence, the perceived trade-off between low prices of intermediate products and the increased risk of being dependent on complex global supply chains has gained new attention in the context of the pandemic. European policymakers are thus calling for a larger role of reshoring in some industries. However, the actual size and dimensions of reshoring in Europe and Germany in the past have been limited as this is only one of many possible strategies to increase resilience of value chains. This indicates a misalignment between the perspective of companies and priorities of policy makers. The design of the value chain network is a matter of economic decision-making and a potential structural change can only be initiated by companies in the course of reassessing the above-mentioned trade-off and of reconsidering the risks of international supply chains. Besides reshoring, other potential measures to increase resilience concern the diversification of supply chains, increasing stockkeeping, or adjusting delivery times. In terms of economic policy, state interventions are only reasonable for industries producing essentials (e.g. certain medicines or personal protective equipment). However, it is crucial that supply chains, which are already disrupted, are not further affected by additional trade conflicts. Protectionist measures covered in the strategy of restructuring supply chains motivated by the current crisis hence entail the danger of reversing the achievements in trade liberalization and specialization of the last decades.
    JEL: F10 F13 F02
    Date: 2022
  4. By: Gary Clyde Hufbauer (Peterson Institute for International Economics); Jisun Kim (POSCO Research Institute (POSCO Research Institute); Jeffrey J. Schott (Peterson Institute for International Economics)
    Abstract: Reforms proposed in the European Union’s "Fit for 55" climate policy package are likely to sharply increase the cost paid by European firms for their greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Recognizing that increased carbon prices would put European firms at a disadvantage in competing with imports from countries that produce without incurring these costs, the European Commission has proposed a Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) requiring that the most carbon-intensive EU imports either incur comparable carbon charges as EU firms or pay the equivalent of a carbon-based tariff. The CBAM aims to deter carbon leakage, which could arise if firms shift carbon-intensive production out of Europe to facilities in countries that do not tax GHG emissions (or tax at a low rate) and then export the goods to Europe. European production and output would suffer and global climate efforts to reduce GHG emissions would be undercut. The loftier goal is to encourage other countries to follow the European example and strengthen their own national decarbonization policies, which in turn would exempt their goods from CBAM charges. The CBAM would cover five carbon-intensive industries: iron and steel, aluminum, fertilizer, electricity, and cement. Countries most affected by the CBAM include Russia, China, Turkey, the United Kingdom, Ukraine, South Korea, and India. Some are likely to contest the policy, claiming that the CBAM is a unilateral measure that violates World Trade Organization rules and bolsters protectionism while hampering rather than encouraging efforts in other countries to tackle climate change. A better and more feasible approach would be adoption of a CBAM moratorium while negotiations are conducted to promote carbon abatement policies that comply with the rules-based global trading system.
    Date: 2021–11
  5. By: Thomas, Timothy S.; Akramov, Kamiljon T.; Robertson, Richard D.; Nazareth, Vijay; Ilyasov, Jarilkasin
    Abstract: Agriculture in Central Asia is vulnerable to climate change due to rising aridity, declining availability of water resources for irrigation, and low adaptive capacity. We use climate data from CMIP5 with RCP8.5 for greenhouse gas emissions and the DSSAT crop model to investigate how yields of key crops in Central Asia will be affected by climate change. We distinguish changes in yields between spring and winter plantings, between irrigated and rainfed crops, and between crops grown with high and low amounts of fertilizer. The results suggest that countries (and areas within countries) that either have moderate summers or grow a number of crops in a relatively cold winter will benefit from climate change, while countries that grow many of the crops in the summer will experience losses.
    Keywords: UZBEKISTAN; CENTRAL ASIA; ASIA; climate change; agriculture; crops; modelling; yields; greenhouse gas emissions; land reform; crop modeling; DSSAT
    Date: 2021

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