nep-cis New Economics Papers
on Confederation of Independent States
Issue of 2022‒01‒31
eight papers chosen by
Alexander Harin
Modern University for the Humanities

  1. мировой опыт применения экономико- правовых режимов и его использование в пространственной организации экономики арктического региона By Волков, Александр
  2. A comparative analysis of confidence to the CIS between Ukraine and Russia By Tamilina, Larysa
  3. Exchange Rate Pass-through and Wheat Prices in Russia By Yugay, Stanislav; Götz, Linde; Svanidze, Miranda
  4. Does Self-Assessed Health Reflect the True Health State? By Pavitra Paul; Ulrich Nguemdjo; Natalia Kovtun; Bruno Ventelou
  5. Forecasting Realized Volatility Using Machine Learning and Mixed-Frequency Data (the Case of the Russian Stock Market) By Vladimir Pyrlik; Pavel Elizarov; Aleksandra Leonova
  6. The Biggest Problem in Post-Communist Transition: The Privatization of Large Enterprises By Anders Aslund
  7. The political economy of Kazakhstan. A case of good economics, bad politics? By Simon Commander; Ruta Prieskienyte
  8. Les relations gazières entre l’Union européenne et la Russie : de la coopération à la confrontation. By Catherine Locatelli

  1. By: Волков, Александр
    Abstract: The results of the analysis of the world experience of applying the mechanisms of special economic and legal regimes in the context of specixc conditions of spatial development of the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation are presented. The purpose of the study is to identify promising international practices for the implementation of special economic zones in the Russian Arctic. The object of the study was socio-economic system of the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation in the context of global economic processes. The subject of the study was relations arising in the process of implementing the mechanisms of spatial organization of the regional economy. The study is devoted to the analysis of the world experience in the application and identixcation of promising mechanisms for the implementation of special economic and legal regimes in the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation. As a result of the research, a conclusion is made about the directions of long-term improvement of the system of strategic planning and the development of tools for the spatial organization of the economy of the Russian Arctic.
    Keywords: Arctic zone of the Russian Federation, special economic regime, spatial development, organization of regional economy
    JEL: R11 R12 R13
    Date: 2021–06
  2. By: Tamilina, Larysa
    Abstract: This study focuses on examining confidence to the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) displayed by the Ukrainian and the Russian respondents in 2011. By juxtaposing its patterns of formation, I approximate the individuals’ preference for a common unification shortly before the beginning of a military confrontation between the two countries. Drawn upon the World Values Survey (WVS) data, I demonstrate that the Ukrainian population viewed the CIS as incompatible with building national identity or increasing the importance of democracy as a form of governance in their country. While also linked to democracy, the CIS was primarily a matter of national pride and, to some extent, an issue of economic prosperity in Russia. In both countries, the CIS was similarly seen by the respondents as a supplement to the national government and an alternative to the West.
    Keywords: Commonwealth of Independent States, Confidence to the CIS, Ukraine-Russia Relations, Comparative Analysis, Logistic Regression, WVS.
    JEL: F00 F5 F51 F55
    Date: 2021–12–13
  3. By: Yugay, Stanislav; Götz, Linde; Svanidze, Miranda
    Keywords: International Relations/Trade, Food Security and Poverty
    Date: 2020–09–18
  4. By: Pavitra Paul (CNRS, UMIFRE 20 CSH, CNRS-MAE - Partenaires INRAE, Yerevan State Medical University); Ulrich Nguemdjo (AMSE - Aix-Marseille Sciences Economiques - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - AMU - Aix Marseille Université, LPED - Laboratoire Population-Environnement-Développement - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - AMU - Aix Marseille Université); Natalia Kovtun (Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv); Bruno Ventelou (AMSE - Aix-Marseille Sciences Economiques - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - AMU - Aix Marseille Université)
    Abstract: Self-assessed health (SAH) is a widely used tool to estimate population health. However, the debate continues as to what exactly this ubiquitous measure of social science research means for policy conclusions. This study is aimed at understanding the tenability of the construct of SAH by simultaneously modelling SAH and clinical morbidity. Using data from 17 waves (2001–2017) of the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey, which captures repeated response for SAH and frequently updates information on clinical morbidity, we operationalise a recursive semi-ordered probit model. Our approach allows for the estimation of the distributional effect of clinical morbidity on perceived health. This study establishes the superiority of inferences from the recursive model. We illustrated the model use for examining the endogeneity problem of perceived health for SAH, contributing to population health research and public policy development, in particular, towards the organisation of health systems.
    Keywords: clinical morbidity,endogeneity,perceived health,recursive,semi-ordered,Russia
    Date: 2021–11
  5. By: Vladimir Pyrlik; Pavel Elizarov; Aleksandra Leonova
    Abstract: We assess the performance of selected machine learning algorithms (lasso, random forest, gradient boosting, and long short-term memory) in forecasting the daily realized volatility of returns of selected top stocks in the Russian stock market in comparison with a heterogeneous autoregressive realized volatility benchmark in 2018-2020. We seek to improve the predictive power of the models by including various economic indicators that carry information about future volatility. We find that lasso delivers a good combination of easy implementation and forecast precision. The other algorithms require fine-tuning and frequent re-training, otherwise they are likely to fail to outperform the benchmark often enough. Only the basic lagged log-RV values are significant explanatory variables in terms of the benchmark in-sample quality. Many economic indicators of mixed frequencies improve the predictive power of lasso though, including calendar and overnight effects, financial spillovers from local and global markets, and various macroeconomics indicators.
    Keywords: heterogeneous autoregressive model; machine learning; lasso; gradient boosting; random forest; long short-term memory; realized volatility; Russian stock market; mixed-frequency data;
    Date: 2021–11
  6. By: Anders Aslund
    Abstract: Thirty years after the collapse of the Soviet Union, it is rather clear what transition policies have worked. Almost all the post-communist countries have become market economies and have achieved macroeconomic stability. Privatization was economically necessary, and its economic outcomes have been very positive. Alas, politically, these successes have often been unsustainable because of strong popular sentiments against the private ownership of big enterprises. Substantial renationalization has occurred. What went wrong? How could privatization be done better, or be defended? What should be done to defend private enterprise in the future? This paper argues that the nature of privatization is far less important than the establishment of good rule of law so that private property rights can be defended.
    Keywords: Eastern Europe, former Soviet Union, post-communist transformation, market economy, privatization
    JEL: P20 P26 P30 P31 K00 K42
    Date: 2021
  7. By: Simon Commander; Ruta Prieskienyte
    Abstract: Can autocracies and their associated institutions successfully implement economic policies that promote growth and investment? Can ‘good economics’ somehow offset the effects of ‘bad’ politics? Kazakhstan is a case where an autocratic regime has actively projected market-friendly policies and attracted significant amounts of incoming investment. These policies are to some extent reflected in the country’s governance ratings, although there has been a significant amount of investment disputes that question the attachment to the rule of law. Moreover, the political regime remains strongly personalised around the founder President, his family and associates. This is reflected in the economics of the autocracy whereby a large public sector and a set of privately held businesses coexist to mutual benefit. The latter have been formed around a very small number of highly connected individuals whose initial accumulation of assets allows them also to act as necessary gatekeepers for entrants. Competition as a result remains limited in both economic and political domains. Yet, uncertainties over the future leadership, along with latent rivalry over access to resources and markets, make the political equilibrium quite fragile. In short, ‘bad’ politics both squeezes the space for, and distorts the benefits from, ‘good’ economics.
    Keywords: Political networks, autocracy, investment
    JEL: D72 H11 L14 P26
    Date: 2021
  8. By: Catherine Locatelli (équipe EDDEN - PACTE - Pacte, Laboratoire de sciences sociales - UPMF - Université Pierre Mendès France - Grenoble 2 - UJF - Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble 1 - IEPG - Sciences Po Grenoble - Institut d'études politiques de Grenoble - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: Analyse de la complexité des échanges de gaz naturel entre l'UE et la Russie. nature de l'interdépendance entre l'UE et la Russie.
    Date: 2021–12

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