nep-cis New Economics Papers
on Confederation of Independent States
Issue of 2022‒01‒24
fifteen papers chosen by

  1. Sino-Russian Competitive Collaboration for the Central Asian Sphere of Influence By Muhammad Nadeem Mirza; Shaukat Ayub
  3. Determinants Of Covid-19 Vaccine Hesitancy And Resistance In Russia By Yana Roshchina; Sergey Roshchin; Ksenia Rozhkova
  5. Political, Environmental And Social Determinants Of Pro-Environmental Behaviour In Russia By Elena V. Sautkina; Fatikha B. Agissova; Alexandra A. Ivanova; Kingsley S. Ivande; Veronika S. Kabanova; Natalia A. Patrakova
  6. Globalization of Scientific Communication: Evidence from authors in academic journals by country of origin By V\'it Mach\'a\v{c}ek
  7. The Role Of Spatial Trajectory In Leisure Participation By Sergey A. Korotaev; Elena N. Gasiukova; Ovsey I. Shkaratan; Elena N. Danilova
  8. Republic of Uzbekistan: Technical Assistance Report-Multi-Topic Statistics Diagnostic By International Monetary Fund
  9. Republic of Armenia: Selected Issues By International Monetary Fund
  10. Republic of Azerbaijan: 2021 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; and Staff Report By International Monetary Fund
  11. Georgia: Technical Assistance Report-Draft Public Corporation Reform Strategy By International Monetary Fund
  12. Republic of Armenia: 2021 Article IV Consultation, Fourth and Fifth Reviews Under the Stand-By Arrangement, and Request for Waiver of Nonobservance of Performance Criterion and Monetary Policy Consultation Clause-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Republic of Armenia By International Monetary Fund
  13. Children and Female Employment in Mongolia By Nikolova, Elena; Polansky, Jakub
  14. Entre deux mondes : un marché international de l’aluminium en pleine mutation By Yves Jégourel
  15. L'économie afghane au bord du chaos By Henri-Louis Vedie

  1. By: Muhammad Nadeem Mirza (School of Politics and International Relations, Quaid-i Azam University); Shaukat Ayub
    Abstract: With the signing of several lucrative deals on oil, gas, currency, and other bilateral and multilateral arrangements, Sino-Russian relations over the last three decades have reached unprecedented levels. However, as China begins to translate its economic influence in Central Asia into political one, Russia started feeling uneasy about losing its traditional sphere of influence in its 'Near-Abroad.' After the unveiling of 'One Belt One Road' (OBOR) initiative in 2013, President Putin, a year later, announced the 'Eurasian Economic Union' (EAEU). This was a calculated geopolitical decision on the part of Russia to rescue Central Asia from falling entirely in the Chinese sphere of influence. Against this backdrop, the regional order invites a deep sense of mistrust because there is a lack of realization on the part of both states as to where one's limits end and the other's begin. In the light of these developments, this study endeavors to address the question that why is Russia allowing China to expand its influence in Central Asia despite the growing economic asymmetry between them and what are the areas of convergence and divergence between them? The study hypothesizes that China and Russia have adopted the policy of competitive collaboration-cooperation where there exists convergence and competition when it comes to divergence of interests-in Central Asia.
    Abstract: Avec la signature de plusieurs accords lucratifs sur le pétrole, le gaz, la monnaie et d'autres accords bilatéraux et multilatéraux, les relations sino-russes au cours des trois dernières décennies ont atteint des niveaux sans précédent. Cependant, alors que la Chine commence à traduire son influence économique en Asie centrale en une influence politique, la Russie a commencé à se sentir mal à l'aise de perdre sa sphère d'influence traditionnelle dans son « Near-Abroad ». Après le dévoilement de l'initiative « One Belt One Road » (OBOR) en 2013, le président Poutine, un an plus tard, a annoncé l'« Union économique eurasienne » (EAEU). Il s'agissait d'une décision géopolitique calculée de la part de la Russie pour éviter que l'Asie centrale ne tombe entièrement dans la sphère d'influence chinoise. Dans ce contexte, l'ordre régional invite à un profond sentiment de méfiance parce qu'il y a un manque de prise de conscience de la part des deux États quant à l'endroit où s'arrêtent les limites de l'un et où commencent celles de l'autre. A la lumière de ces évolutions, cette étude s'attache à répondre à la question : pourquoi la Russie permet-elle à la Chine d'étendre son influence en Asie centrale malgré l'asymétrie économique croissante entre elles et quelles sont les zones de convergence et de divergence entre elles ? L'étude fait l'hypothèse que la Chine et la Russie ont adopté la politique de collaboration concurrentielle-coopération là où il existe une convergence et une concurrence lorsqu'il s'agit de divergence d'intérêts-en Asie centrale.
    Keywords: near-abroad,New Great Game,geopolitics,pipeline politics,International Relations,Russia,Great Power Politics,China
    Date: 2021–11–26
  2. By: Oleg Rusakovskiy (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: Modern historians have widely acknowledged that the traditional Eastern Orthodoxy was less inclined to proclaim the Holy War against the enemies of faith and, thus, to dehumanize the non-Christian adversaries of the Russian tsardom than the confessions of the Western Christendom were by similar circumstances. The presented paper aims to challenge this view. The Russian political and religious propaganda of the late 17th century rarely appealed to the idea of the Holy War and called for extermination or enslavement of the infidels directly. Instead, the complex of Biblical metaphors was used. Whereas the Russian tsardom had been traditionally seen as the ‘New Israel’, the preachers of the 1680s and 1690s recalled the deeds of Moses, Joshua and Gedeon and compared the Muslim enemies of the realm – Tatars and Turks – with the cursed people of Canaan such as Midianites and Amalekites. Parallelly, the images of the violence Israelites committed against these people by divine sanction became popular in the religious wall painting, in part, due to some influences from the Western book illustration brought to Russia in the second half of the 17th century. Some religiously zealous contemporaries, from the advisors of the young Tsar Peter I to ordinary gentry, applied these negative Biblical images of religiously and ethnically suspected others not only to the Muslims but even to the Protestant population of the Baltic provinces of Sweden attacked during the Great Northern war adding a confessional dimension to the predominantly secular rhetoric of the government
    Keywords: Old Testament, Book of Joshua, Religious Violence, Peter the Great, Russo-Turkish Wars, Great Northern War
    JEL: Z
    Date: 2021
  3. By: Yana Roshchina (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Sergey Roshchin (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Ksenia Rozhkova (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: Vaccination is the main tool available to handle the COVID-19 pandemic globally. Though no vaccine is proven to be 100% effective, vaccination secures against getting seriously ill and dying from the disease. Russia announced the development of its first domestic vaccine back in August 2020 and launched the nationwide immunization campaign at the beginning of 2021. Despite these achievements, as for mid-October 2021, only 36% of the population got at least one shot of the vaccine. Massive vaccination hesitancy and refusal pose a great threat to public health and postpone social and economic recovery. Using nationally representative data from the general adult population of Russia, this study explores the scope of vaccination hesitancy and refusal as well as the determinants of vaccination attitudes. The results suggest that only 45% of Russian population demonstrated positive attitudes towards COVID-19 vaccination prior the launch of nationwide vaccination. We analyze a wide array of demographic, socio-economic, and health-related factors in relation to vaccination intentions. We also explore the deep-rooted causes of vaccination reluctance by looking at personality traits, religiosity, and trust. The obtained results are vital for designing policy measures to promote vaccination as a “fourth wave” of COVID-19 in Russia is currently progressing.
    Keywords: COVID-19; coronavirus; vaccination attitudes; vaccination hesitancy; vaccination resistance; risk attitudes; personality traits; Russia
    JEL: I11 I12
    Date: 2021
  4. By: Denis Zubalov (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Margarita Burdygina (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Arina Afanasieva (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Pavel Ali-zade (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: The present study looks at the micro-level language policy and how it is implemented in the state Moscow school with a high degree of ethnically diverse students. More specifically, we analyze the measures that the school administration takes as well as teachers’ educational practices when it comes to immigrant children’s linguistic and cultural integration into the Russian education system. On the one hand, the school has to stick to the official curriculum where the language of instruction is exclusively Russian, and on the other hand, it has to linguistically and culturally socialize and adapt students whose proficiency in Russian is either low or non-existent. Taking into account the fact that the vast majority of teachers of the Russian language and literature have not had any training on how to teach in culturally and linguistically diverse educational settings, the present research aims to identify the major challenges that teachers face working such conditions
    Keywords: language policy, education, identity
    JEL: Z
    Date: 2021
  5. By: Elena V. Sautkina (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Fatikha B. Agissova (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Alexandra A. Ivanova (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Kingsley S. Ivande (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Veronika S. Kabanova (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Natalia A. Patrakova (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: In the context of global environmental and climate change caused by human impact, the study of pro-environmental behaviour and its determinants is important. At present, research on determinants of pro-environmental behaviour in Russia is sparse. Our study addresses this evidence gap and looks at the political, environmental and social determinants of pro-environmental behaviour. Adult participants (N=462, mean age = 36.73 years, SD = 11.77, 56.7% females) took part in an online survey measuring personal values, environmental motivation, environmental concern, connectedness to nature, institutional trust, political values, populism, patriotism and pro-environmental behaviour. The results show that different types of pro-environmental behaviour are predicted by different variables. Despite this, some common patterns emerge. The strongest predictor of all behaviour types was integrated regulation, the most autonomous form of environmental motivation. Hedonic values negatively predicted all pro-environmental behaviour, except resource conservation. For waste management and social behaviour, some environmental predictors had very high explanatory power, while for resource conservation, sustainable purchasing and climate relevant actions, a greater number of predictors with low explanatory power was observed
    Keywords: pro-environmental behaviour, values, attitudes, knowledge, motivation, patriotism, trust, Russia.
    JEL: Z
    Date: 2021
  6. By: V\'it Mach\'a\v{c}ek
    Abstract: This study measures the tendency to publish in international scientific journals. For each of nearly 35 thousands Scopus-indexed journals, we derive seven globalization indicators based on the composition of authors by country of origin and other characteristics. These are subsequently scaled up to the level of 174 countries and 27 disciplines between 2005 and 2017. The results indicate that advanced countries maintain high globalization of scientific communication that is not varying across disciplines. Social sciences and health sciences are less globalized than physical and life sciences. Countries of the former Soviet bloc score far lower on the globalization measures, especially in social sciences or health sciences. Russia remains among the least globalized during the whole period, with no upward trend. Contrary, China has profoundly globalized its science system, gradually moving from the lowest globalization figures to the world average. The paper concludes with reflections on measurement issues and policy implications.
    Date: 2021–12
  7. By: Sergey A. Korotaev (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Elena N. Gasiukova (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Ovsey I. Shkaratan (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Elena N. Danilova (Federal Center of Theoretical and Applied Sociology of the Russian Academy of Sciences)
    Abstract: There are a number of studies in the literature investigating the relationship between leisure participation and place of residence. However, scant attention has been given to the impact of the spatial trajectory – or relocating – on individuals’ leisure activities. The authors of this paper attempt to close this gap by examining spatial mobility as an instance of social mobility. The empirical analysis draws upon data from the 2016 Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey, the sample includes 9251 respondents. The leisure participation variable was obtained through the cluster analysis. Sobel’s Diagonal Reference Model was utilized to evaluate the relative impact of the locality of destination and the locality of origin on the likelihood of belonging to a certain cluster. A crucial result of the study is the empirical confirmation that the spatial trajectory – the place of residence of the parental family, the location where higher education is obtained, the current place of residence – has a significant effect on individuals’ current leisure participation. Thus, the spatial trajectory may be viewed as another source of social distinction that researchers studying leisure activities have not yet focused on.
    Keywords: spatial mobility, leisure practices, diagonal reference model, distinction, place of residence
    JEL: Z19
    Date: 2021
  8. By: International Monetary Fund
    Abstract: At the request of the authorities, a remote multi-topic statistics diagnostic mission for Uzbekistan took place during March 1–19, 2021.1 In close cooperation with officials of the State Committee of the Republic of Uzbekistan on Statistics (SSC), the Central Bank of Uzbekistan (CBU), and the Ministry of Finance (MOF), the mission (i) assessed the collection, compilation, and dissemination practices for the datasets covered by the mission; (ii) identified key high-level priorities and developed a medium-term action plan for statistical improvement and the associated capacity development (CD) needs; and (iii) developed a roadmap for subscription to the Special Data Dissemination Standard (SDDS). The mission covered the following topics: national accounts (NA) and prices, 2 government finance statistics (GFS) including public debt, external sector statistics (ESS), monetary and financial statistics (MFS), and SDDS subscription.
    Date: 2021–12–08
  9. By: International Monetary Fund
    Abstract: Selected Issues
    Date: 2021–12–21
  10. By: International Monetary Fund
    Abstract: Azerbaijan faced unprecedented challenges in 2020. The combined COVID-19 and oil price shocks pushed the economy into recession. A sizeable relief package helped cushion the economic impact from this shock, and the economy has started to recover. Yet the medium-term outlook remains subdued. The long-term fiscal position is unsustainable as oil resources are expected to run out by mid-century. The authorities have laid out strategic goals of accelerated yet sustainable socio-economic development over the next decade and are developing policy plans to that end.
    Date: 2021–12–22
  11. By: International Monetary Fund
    Abstract: State-owned enterprises (SOEs) are a key part of Georgia’s economy, accounting for a significant portion of GDP, employment and public investment. They deliver critical services in important economic sectors, including gas, electricity, water and transportation. Improving their performance is a critical step in the path to becoming a high income country. Since 2012, the authorities have been taking concrete steps to address challenges arising from the SOE sector. Substantial progress has been achieved in disclosing fiscal risks arising from SOEs in the Fiscal Risk Statement; increasing the monitoring capacity at the Ministry of Finance (MoF) by establishing a Fiscal Risk Management Unit (FRMU); rationalizing the number of SOEs; sectorizing them in line with international statistical standards; partially unwinding the role of the Partnership Fund; and restructuring some specific SOEs.
    Date: 2021–12–20
  12. By: International Monetary Fund
    Abstract: Armenia has commenced a robust recovery from the deep 2020 recession, benefiting from strong policies and the lifting of the political uncertainty after the elections in June. A gradual but uneven improvement in the pandemic situation, pent-up demand, and the strengthening of public and private investment are expected to drive 2022 growth. Robust growth is expected over the medium term. Risks. Risks are relatively balanced, although uncertainty remains high. Strong reform implementation and accelerating vaccinations could improve the outlook, while risks of a protracted pandemic, renewed geopolitical tensions, a slowdown in major trading partners, and stress from global financial volatility and/or trade tensions could hamper the recovery.
    Date: 2021–12–21
  13. By: Nikolova, Elena; Polansky, Jakub
    Abstract: Although a large body of literature has argued that motherhood has a profound and long-lasting negative effect on the employment and earnings of women, there is little evidence focusing on the post-communist region. This paper exploits the latest round of the EBRD-World Bank Life in Transition Survey (LiTS) and of the Mongolian National Statistics Office Household Socio- Economic Survey (HSES) to examine the correlation between the presence of children of different age categories in a family and female employment in Mongolia in 2016. We examine the availability of childcare, social norms and attitudes towards women, as well as household decision-making as potential explanations. We find that small children decrease the probability of female employment relative to women with no small children. In particular, women with two children aged one to six years are 21.5 percentage points less likely to be employed. Our results also suggest that cultural biases against women may be - at least partially - responsible for the low female employment levels which we uncovered. These results are unlikely to be driven by omitted variable bias.
    Keywords: children,female employment,Mongolia,women
    JEL: J16 J13 J20
    Date: 2022
  14. By: Yves Jégourel
    Abstract: Après avoir connu plusieurs années difficiles marquées par une abondance de stocks et des surcapacités, l’aluminium a vu ses cours flamber sur les dix premiers mois de 2021, et ce malgré une inflexion récente. Au-delà de la reprise de la demande mondiale dans un contexte post-Covid-19, c’est la contraction de l’offre de la Chine, premier producteur mondial, qui expliquait cette dynamique haussière, alors que nombre de métaux de base tendaient à voir leurs prix fléchir depuis l’été. En raison de l’engagement de Pékin à décarboner son économie (alors que l’essentiel de la génération électrique utilisé pour produire ce métal est fondé sur le charbon), mais également de la crise énergétique qui a touché le pays (comme le reste du monde) en septembre et octobre, l’offre ne pouvait que se contracter et les cours augmenter en proportion. Derrière les contraintes fortes – mais conjoncturelles – d’approvisionnement se cache toutefois une profonde mutation et la réaffirmation d’une nouvelle compétition : celle d’un aluminium bas carbone, i.e. produit à base d’énergies renouvelables, et notamment l’hydroélectricité. Les producteurs européens, russe et nord-américains sont à la manœuvre, mais leurs homologues chinois, encadrés par une stratégie nationale, ne manqueront pas de réagir.
    Date: 2021–11
  15. By: Henri-Louis Vedie
    Abstract: L'arrivée des Talibans dans Kaboul, le 16 août 2021, et l'effondrement du régime afghan au profit des islamistes qui l'accompagne, vont provoquer une véritable onde de choc mondiale, faisant oublier, pour un temps, la situation économique du pays durant la présence américaine. Ce Papier est consacré à cette situation et aux conséquences, pour l'économie afghane, de la prise de pouvoir des Talibans. Le moins que l'on puisse dire, c'est que la présence américaine n'a guère été profitable à l'économie du pays, avec des résultats en trompe l'oeil imputables à des dons ou à des soutiens financiers, essentiellement portés par le Fonds monétaire international (FMI) et la Banque mondiale (BM) et ou émanant du monde occidental. Par contre, de façon surprenante, pendant 20 ans de présence américaine, rien n'a été fait pour valoriser le riche sous-sol afghan. L'arrivée des Talibans prive le pays de ces dons et aides occidentales qui avaient permis à son économie de faire illusion. Parmi les pays ouverts à la discussion avec le pouvoir islamique en place, la Chine et la Russie mettent en avant les questions sécuritaires. Pourtant, la priorité absolue est économique, dans un pays incapable aujourd'hui de payer ses fonctionnaires. Valoriser le sous-sol est, bien sûr, la seule issue qui permettrait au pays de sortir de sa dépendance et de mettre fin à « l'économie de la perfusion » qui a été la sienne. La Chine, qui a déjà fait ses offres de services aux Talibans avant leur retour à Kaboul, nous semble être, de loin, le pays le mieux placé pour tirer profit de cette situation.
    Date: 2021–11

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