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on Confederation of Independent States |
| By: | Teemu Makkonen; Timo Mitze |
| Abstract: | We address the question how sensitive international knowledge flows respond to geo-political conflicts taking the politico-economic tensions between EU-Russia since the Ukraine crisis 2014 as case study. We base our econometric analysis on comprehensive data covering more than 500 million scientific publications and 8 million international co-publications between 1995 and 2018. Our findings indicate that the imposition of EU sanctions and Russian counter-sanctions from 2014 onwards has significant negative effects on bilateral international scientific co-publication rates between EU countries and Russia. Depending on the chosen control group and sectors considered, effect size ranges from 15% to 70%. Effects are also observed to grow over time. |
| Date: | 2021–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2112.00564&r= |
| By: | Kitova, Olga; Savinova, Victoria |
| Abstract: | This article describes the application of the bagging method to build a forecast model for the socio-economic indicators of the Russian Federation. This task is one of the priorities within the framework of the Federal Project "Strategic Planning", which implies the creation of a unified decision support system capable of predicting socio-economic indicators. This paper considers the relevance of the development of forecasting models, examines and analyzes the work of researchers on this topic. The authors carried out computational experiments for 40 indicators of the socio-economic sphere of the Russian Federation. For each indicator, a linear multiple regression equation was constructed. For the constructed equations, verification was carried out and indicators with the worst accuracy and quality of the forecast were selected. For these indicators, neural network modeling was carried out. Multilayer perceptrons were chosen as the architecture of neural networks. Next, an analysis of the accuracy and quality of neural network models was carried out. Indicators that could not be predicted with a sufficient level of accuracy were selected for the bagging procedure. Bagging was used for weighted averaging of prediction results for neural networks of various configurations. Item Response Theory (IRT) elements were used to determine the weights of the models. |
| Keywords: | Socio-economic Indicators of the Russian Federation, Forecasting, Bagging, Multiple Linear Regression, Neural Networks, Item Response Theory |
| JEL: | C45 |
| Date: | 2021–11–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:110824&r= |
| By: | Agapova, Anna; Budarina, N; Shafiev, R; Tataeva, I.; Bludova, S. |
| Abstract: | Today Africa is the world leader in terms of consumption growth. Agriculture, chemical industry and agro-technologies, oil refining and extractive industries, energy and peaceful nuclear technologies are rapidly developing on the continent. Most countries are interested in the development of infrastructure, the demand for cars and special equipment is growing. Russia is ready to act as a partner for all African countries in a number of areas. These include projects for the supply of the latest Russian equipment for metallurgical and mining enterprises, the development of a transport and logistics system - including not only the supply of rolling stock for railways, aircraft and helicopters of various classes and purposes, but also control and safety systems for the respective modes of transport. In addition, Russia is interested in participating in the creation of energy infrastructure in the countries of the African region - oil and gas and generating capacities, including hydro and nuclear energy, ensuring food security, as well as developing a health care system and drug supply. |
| Keywords: | North Africa, Cooperation, Export, Import |
| JEL: | O10 |
| Date: | 2021–03–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:110766&r= |
| By: | Dmitry Gornostaev (Bank of Russia, Russian Federation); Alexey Ponomarenko (Bank of Russia, Russian Federation); Sergei Seleznev (Bank of Russia, Russian Federation); Alexandra Sterkhova (Bank of Russia, Russian Federation) |
| Abstract: | We compile a database that contains data vintages of a large collection of short-term economic indicators. The main result of the work is a database which is available as an electronic annex to this working paper. The Research and Forecasting Department of the Bank of Russia plans to update this database in the future. We also perform an illustrative analysis of the properties of the revisions for a number of indicators. The preliminary results indicate that the magnitude of the revisions is in many cases substantial. |
| Keywords: | data revisions, data vintages, database, Russia |
| JEL: | E01 E2 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bkr:wpaper:wps76&r= |
| By: | Ruslan Gulidov; Elena Veprikova (Federal Autonomous Scientific Institution «Eastern State Planning Center») |
| Abstract: | The paper presents a snapshot of the socio-economic development of the Khabarovsky Krai, a region of the Russian Federation. General information on the territory (the number and density of the population, the pattern of settlements, the presence of undeveloped and border areas) is presented. The problems of the infrastructure availability of the region are identified. The region's current stage of economic development is analyzed, including the performance of the key economy sectors, foreign economic activity, employment, labor productivity and wages, investments, and preferential regimes. The state and features of the use of the resource potential are demonstrated. The level of social development and the quality of life in the Khabarovsky Krai are presented. The state and potential of regional budgets are revealed. Based on the comprehensive analysis of a wide array of relevant factual data, the key competitive advantages, limitations and development potentials of the Khabarovsk Krai are revealed. The paper is intended for specialists in the regional economics, regional and local government officials, faculty members, graduates and postgraduates as well as other readers interested in the development of the Russian Far East and the Khabarovsky Krai, in particular. |
| Keywords: | socio-economic development, development of the territory, transport infrastructure, energy infrastructure, communications infrastructure, land resources, mineral resources, forest resources, aquatic biological resources, foreign economic activity, employment, labor productivity, wages, investments, preferential regimes, well-being, social development, regional budget, development limitations, development drivers |
| JEL: | R10 J1 O10 |
| Date: | 2020–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aln:wpaper:350-00001-20/1.10&r= |
| By: | Ruslan Gulidov; Elena Veprikova (Federal Autonomous Scientific Institution «Eastern State Planning Center») |
| Abstract: | The paper presents a snapshot of the socio-economic development of the Primorsky krai, a region of the Russian Federation. General information on the territory (the number and density of the population, the pattern of settlements, the presence of undeveloped and border areas) is presented. The problems of the infrastructure availability of the region are identified. The region's current stage of economic development is analyzed, including the performance of the key economy sectors, foreign economic activity, employment, labor productivity and wages, investments, and preferential regimes. The state and features of the use of the resource potential are demonstrated. The level of social development and the quality of life in the Primorsky krai are presented. The state and potential of regional budgets are revealed. Based on the comprehensive analysis of a wide array of relevant factual data, the key competitive advantages, limitations and development potentials of the Primorsky krai are revealed. The paper is intended for specialists in the regional economics, regional and local government officials, faculty members, graduates and postgraduates as well as other readers interested in the development of the Russian Far East and the Primorsky krai, in particular. |
| Keywords: | socio-economic development, development of the territory, transport infrastructure, energy infrastructure, communications infrastructure, land resources, mineral resources, forest resources, aquatic biological resources, foreign economic activity, employment, labor productivity, wages, investments, preferential regimes, well-being, social development, regional budget, development limitations, development drivers |
| JEL: | R10 J1 O10 |
| Date: | 2020–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aln:wpaper:350-00001-20/1.6&r= |
| By: | Belykh, Anastasia; Tolstoguzov, Oleg |
| Abstract: | В условиях возрастания неопределенности управленческой ситуации и системных рисков реализация модернизационной повестки требует повышение компетенций и интеллектуализации экономики. Цель нашего исследования заключалась в анализе пространственного распределения интеллектуального потенциала российских регионов и их резилентности, в основе которой мы рассматриваем следующие компетенции – способность готовить кадры высшей научной квалификации (ВНК) и создавать и продвигать инновации. Изучение структуры отношений в образовательно-инновационной сфере осуществлялось с помощью факторного анализа, направленного на исследование закономерностей изменения дисперсии экономических показателей и оценку размерности переменных путем исследования корреляционных матриц и выявления латентных факторов. Представлена дифференциация регионов по степени резилентности социальных систем, в основе которой – сбалансированность влияния латентных факторов. Сделан вывод о том, что, поскольку система образования, регулируемая и отстраиваемая в рамках правильной пространственной стратегии, является основой формирования экономики компетенций, то необходимо уделить внимание развитию национальных научных школ (готовящих кадры ВНК) и стимулировать развитие всей системы воспроизводства знаний, причем не только центра, но и периферии. Кроме того важно согласовать усилия всех взаимодействующих акторов и системно подойти к действующей институциональной матрице, представляющей собой систему стратегических регуляторов субъекта Российской Федерации (стратегия, схема территориального планирования, госпрограммы и т.д.) в едином портфеле «стратегия → госпрограммы → бюджет». The implementation of the modernization agenda requires an increase in competencies and the intellectualization of the economy in conditions of increasing uncertainty in the management situation and systemic risks. The purpose of our research was to analyze the spatial distribution of the intellectual potential of Russian regions and their resilience. At the heart of resilience we consider the following competencies: the ability to train personnel of the highest scientific qualifications (HSQ) and to create and promote innovations. The study of the structure of relations in the educational and innovative sphere was carried out using factor analysis. It was aimed at studying the patterns of changes in the dispersion of economic indicators and assessing the dimension of variables by analyzing correlation matrices and identifying latent factors. The differentiation of regions according to the degree of residency of social systems is presented too. It is based on the balance of the influence of latent factors. It was concluded that it is necessary to pay attention to the development of national scientific schools (that train personnel of HSQ) and to stimulate the development of the entire system of knowledge reproduction, not only in the center, but also in the periphery. Moreover, it is important to coordinate the efforts of all interacting players and systematically approach the existing institutional matrix. This matrix is a system of strategic regulators of the subject of the Russian Federation (strategy, territorial planning scheme, state programs, etc.) in a single portfolio “strategy→ state programs→ budget”. |
| Keywords: | интеллектуальный потенциал региона; пространственное распределение интеллектуального потенциала регионов; экономика знаний; резилентность; образовательно-инновационная система региона; инновации |
| JEL: | R12 R13 R58 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:110862&r= |
| By: | Ruslan Gulidov; Elena Veprikova (Federal Autonomous Scientific Institution «Eastern State Planning Center») |
| Abstract: | The paper presents a snapshot of the socio-economic development of the Kamchatka Krai, a region of the Russian Federation. General information on the territory (the number and density of the population, the pattern of settlements, the presence of undeveloped and border areas) is presented. The problems of the infrastructure availability of the region are identified. The region's current stage of economic development is analyzed, including the performance of the key economy sectors, foreign economic activity, employment, labor productivity and wages, investments, and preferential regimes. The state and features of the use of the resource potential are demonstrated. The level of social development and the quality of life in the Kamchatka Krai are presented. The state and potential of regional budgets are revealed. Based on the comprehensive analysis of a wide array of relevant factual data, the key competitive advantages, limitations and development potentials of the Kamchatka Krai are revealed. The paper is intended for specialists in the regional economics, regional and local government officials, faculty members, graduates and postgraduates as well as other readers interested in the development of the Russian Far East and the Kamchatka Krai, in particular. |
| Keywords: | socio-economic development, development of the territory, transport infrastructure, energy infrastructure, communications infrastructure, land resources, mineral resources, forest resources, aquatic biological resources, foreign economic activity, employment, labor productivity, wages, investments, preferential regimes, well-being, social development, regional budget, development limitations, development drivers |
| JEL: | R10 J1 O10 |
| Date: | 2020–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aln:wpaper:350-00001-20/1.4&r= |
| By: | Ruslan Gulidov; Elena Veprikova (Federal Autonomous Scientific Institution «Eastern State Planning Center») |
| Abstract: | The paper presents a snapshot of the socio-economic development of the Sakhalin Oblast, a region of the Russian Federation. General information on the territory (the number and density of the population, the pattern of settlements, the presence of undeveloped and border areas) is presented. The problems of the infrastructure availability of the region are identified. The region's current stage of economic development is analyzed, including the performance of the key economy sectors, foreign economic activity, employment, labor productivity and wages, investments, and preferential regimes. The state and features of the use of the resource potential are demonstrated. The level of social development and the quality of life in the Sakhalin Oblast are presented. The state and potential of regional budgets are revealed. Based on the comprehensive analysis of a wide array of relevant factual data, the key competitive advantages, limitations and development potentials of the Sakhalin Oblast are revealed. The paper is intended for specialists in the regional economics, regional and local government officials, faculty members, graduates and postgraduates as well as other readers interested in the development of the Russian Far East and the Sakhalin Oblast, in particular. |
| Keywords: | socio-economic development, development of the territory, transport infrastructure, energy infrastructure, communications infrastructure, land resources, mineral resources, forest resources, aquatic biological resources, foreign economic activity, employment, labor productivity, wages, investments, preferential regimes, well-being, social development, regional budget, development limitations, development drivers |
| JEL: | R10 J1 O10 |
| Date: | 2020–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aln:wpaper:350-00001-20/1.7&r= |
| By: | Ruslan Gulidov; Elena Veprikova (Federal Autonomous Scientific Institution «Eastern State Planning Center») |
| Abstract: | The paper presents a snapshot of the socio-economic development of the Magadan Oblast, a region of the Russian Federation. General information on the territory (the number and density of the population, the pattern of settlements, the presence of undeveloped and border areas) is presented. The problems of the infrastructure availability of the region are identified. The region's current stage of economic development is analyzed, including the performance of the key economy sectors, foreign economic activity, employment, labor productivity and wages, investments, and preferential regimes. The state and features of the use of the resource potential are demonstrated. The level of social development and the quality of life in the Magadan Oblast are presented. The state and potential of regional budgets are revealed. Based on the comprehensive analysis of a wide array of relevant factual data, the key competitive advantages, limitations and development potentials of the Magadan Oblast are revealed. The paper is intended for specialists in the regional economics, regional and local government officials, faculty members, graduates and postgraduates as well as other readers interested in the development of the Russian Far East and the Magadan Oblast, in particular. |
| Keywords: | socio-economic development, development of the territory, transport infrastructure, energy infrastructure, communications infrastructure, land resources, mineral resources, forest resources, aquatic biological resources, foreign economic activity, employment, labor productivity, wages, investments, preferential regimes, well-being, social development, regional budget, development limitations, development drivers |
| JEL: | R10 J1 O10 |
| Date: | 2020–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aln:wpaper:350-00001-20/1.5&r= |
| By: | Ruslan Gulidov; Elena Veprikova (Federal Autonomous Scientific Institution «Eastern State Planning Center») |
| Abstract: | The paper presents a snapshot of the socio-economic development of the Khabarovsky Krai, a region of the Russian Federation. General information on the territory (the number and density of the population, the pattern of settlements, the presence of undeveloped and border areas) is presented. The problems of the infrastructure availability of the region are identified. The region's current stage of economic development is analyzed, including the performance of the key economy sectors, foreign economic activity, employment, labor productivity and wages, investments, and preferential regimes. The state and features of the use of the resource potential are demonstrated. The level of social development and the quality of life in the Khabarovsky Krai are presented. The state and potential of regional budgets are revealed. Based on the comprehensive analysis of a wide array of relevant factual data, the key competitive advantages, limitations and development potentials of the Khabarovsk Krai are revealed. |
| Keywords: | socio-economic development, development of the territory, transport infrastructure, energy infrastructure, communications infrastructure, land resources, mineral resources, forest resources, aquatic biological resources, foreign economic activity, employment, labor productivity, wages, investments, preferential regimes, well-being, social development, regional budget, development limitations, development drivers |
| JEL: | R10 J1 O10 |
| Date: | 2020–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aln:wpaper:350-00001-20/1.11&r= |
| By: | Miller, Marcus (University of Warwick); Ben Zissimos (Exeter University Business School) |
| Abstract: | From a wide-ranging historical survey, Acemoglu and Robinson conclude that the preservation of liberty depends on being in a ‘narrow corridor’ where there is a balance of power between the state and society. We first examine the support Binmore's game-theoretic treatment of Social Contracts provides for such a ‘narrow corridor’ of liberty and justice – and what extremes to expect without them. We also consider how the biological model of Competing Species helps to describe the dynamics of conflicting powers outside the narrow corridor– where, as in contemporary Russia and China, any Social Contracts that exist are neither free nor fair. |
| Keywords: | liberty, social contracts, repeated games, Competing Species, anarchy, Despotism, Neofeudalism JEL Classification: C70, C73, P00, Z13 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cge:wacage:591&r= |
| By: | Zamani, Omid; Chibanda, Craig; Pelikan, Janine |
| Abstract: | Due to the Avian Influenza outbreak in Europe and Russia, Ghana has imposed an import ban on affected countries. This paper analyses the potential effects of this partial ban on Ghanaian chicken producers and agricultural trade. Due to the growing support for a total ban on poultry imports by various value chain actors, we also analyse the impact of a complete ban on Ghana's poultry imports. We apply an integrated method covering General Equilibrium and typical farm analysis. Our findings show that the partial ban has a lower effect on trade and the whole economy compared with the total ban. Nevertheless, the effect of a total ban on domestic producers is more significant. Moreover, a total import ban increases production mainly for the large-scale integrated farms in Ghana. |
| Keywords: | International Relations/Trade, Production Economics |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:gewi21:316719&r= |
| By: | Antinyan, Armenak (Cardiff Business School, Cardiff University.); Baghdasaryan, Vardan (College of Business and Economics, American University of Armenia, Yerevan, Armenia); Grigoryan, Aleksandr (College of Business and Economics, American University of Armenia, Yerevan, Armenia) |
| Abstract: | Research on the effects of positional concerns on individuals' attitudes and behavior in certain policy-relevant areas is lacking. In this paper, we investigate the relationship between positional concerns, charitable giving and social capital. We use data from the "Caucasus Barometer" survey administered in three post-Soviet transition economies: Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia. Our analysis proceeds in two phases. First, controlling for absolute income and other individual and household characteristics, we show an association between positional concerns and charitable giving as well as between positional concerns and social capital. Second, we use an instrumental variable model that uses heteroskedasticity-based instruments generated through Lewbel's method to provide supporting evidence of the causal impact of positional concerns on the outcome variables of interest. We find that the relative deprivation of a household can have negative impacts on its members'charitable giving and social capital. |
| Keywords: | Positional Concern; Social Capital; Charitable Giving; Reference Group. |
| JEL: | D31 D63 D91 P30 Z13 |
| Date: | 2021–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdf:wpaper:2021/33&r= |