nep-cis New Economics Papers
on Confederation of Independent States
Issue of 2021‒12‒06
ten papers chosen by

  1. Regional Disparities and Fiscal Federalism in Russia By Ms. Annette J Kyobe; Oksana Dynnikova; Mr. Slavi T Slavov
  2. Анализ пространственной зависимости распространения COVID-19 в России By Timiryanova, Venera; Zimin, Aleksandr; Plushcheva, larisa
  3. Foreign Labor Migration Control in Russian Regions using Multicultural Barometer (The Case of the Republic of Karelia, Russia) By Pitukhina, Maria; Pitukhin, Eugene; Radikov, Ivan; Tolstoguzov, Oleg; Kulakova, Lyubov
  4. Development of the Russian Far East in 20 Years of the Putin Era: Seeking New Directions for Deepening Cooperation between Korea and Russia By Park, Joungho; Kim, Seok Hwan; Kang, Boogyun; Minakir, Pavel A.; Isaev, Artem G.; Bardal, Anna B.; Suslov, Denis V.
  5. Sunset Long Shadows: Time, Crime, and Perception of Change By Jelnov, Pavel
  6. The Effects of Macroprudential and Monetary Policy Shocks in BRICS economies By Kaelo Mpho Ntwaepelo
  7. Пенсионные реформы и теневой сектор: моделирование поведения доходных групп By Danielyan, Vladimir; Polterovich, Victor
  8. Understanding the Role of Perceived Land Rights in the Formation of Farmers’ Intentions: Evidence from Central Asia By Akhmadiyeva, Zarema; Herzfeld, Thomas
  9. Civil War, Famine and the Persistence of Human Capital: Evidence from Tajikistan By Grogan, Louise
  10. Procurements with Bidder Asymmetry in Cost and Risk-Aversion By Gaurab Aryal; Hanna Charankevich; Seungwon Jeong; Dong-Hyuk Kim

  1. By: Ms. Annette J Kyobe; Oksana Dynnikova; Mr. Slavi T Slavov
    Abstract: This paper examines how regional disparities have evolved in Russia and how Russia’s system of intergovernmental fiscal relations is managing these disparities. Regional disparities have fallen over the past two decades but remain relatively high. Socioeconomic outcomes remain worse in lagging regions despite faster growth and convergence in income levels. The twin shocks of COVID-19 and lower oil prices appear to have impacted richer regions disproportionately. Compared to other large countries with federal systems of government, Russia stands out with its high reliance on direct taxes as a revenue source for its regions. Transfers from the federal budget to the regions provide some redistribution by reducing the dispersion in real per capita fiscal spending, but also tend to be associated with lower growth. The Russian fiscal system offers degrees of redistribution and risk sharing of around 26 and 18 percent, respectively—with in-kind social transfers contributing the most. Finally, federal transfers in the aggregate tend to be procyclical and are also fairly unresponsive to shocks to regions’ own revenues.
    Keywords: risk sharing; Russia's system; transfers from the federal budget; complex system; inequality in Russia; Income; Income inequality; Disposable income; Fiscal federalism; Global
    Date: 2021–05–20
  2. By: Timiryanova, Venera; Zimin, Aleksandr; Plushcheva, larisa
    Abstract: The materials present the results of assessing the spatial autocorrelation of the number of infected COVID-19 per capita for the regions of the Russian Federation during the period from the beginning of the epidemic to November 2021. The calculation showed the low significance of the assessment of the global Moran's index until November 2020. The strongest spatial dependence was in February-April 2021. Obviously, in conditions of a sharp increase in the number of cases, restrictive measures are introduced that actually reduce the movement of the population, and therefore worsen the estimates of spatial autocorrelation.
    Keywords: COVID-19, spatial analysis, Global Moran's Index
    JEL: I19 R19
    Date: 2021–11–10
  3. By: Pitukhina, Maria; Pitukhin, Eugene; Radikov, Ivan; Tolstoguzov, Oleg; Kulakova, Lyubov
    Abstract: The article deals with foreign labor migration flows control as well as migration monitoring which are important for the Russian Federation regions’ economy development. A new migration monitoring toolkit is proposed by the authors - Multicultural Barometer. It allows to quantify migration indicators in a region from 4 various angles: labor market; national identity; migrants’ adaptation; migrants’ integration. The research data is coming from open sources (Federal Migration Service of the Republic of Karelia, Ministry of Labor and Employment of the Republic of Karelia, data obtained from Centers for Interethnic Cooperation in Karelian municipalities); both migrants’ pilot survey and host community survey organized in 18 municipalities of the Republic of Karelia. The study conducted in Karelia seems to be important in a context of its geographical location (on a border with Finland) highlighting both successful practices and developing new tools for migration monitoring aimed at scientifically based solutions for migration control. Multicultural barometer as a tool was recommended by the Federal Agency on Ethnic Issues of Russia (FADN) and Strategic Initiatives Agency in 2017 as best regional practice for further implementation all over the Russian Federation.
    Keywords: foreign labour migration; migration flows control; Multicultural barometer; migrants’ integration; migrants’ adaptation
    JEL: J15 J61
    Date: 2020–01–07
  4. By: Park, Joungho (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)); Kim, Seok Hwan (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)); Kang, Boogyun (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)); Minakir, Pavel A. (Far Eastern Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences); Isaev, Artem G. (Far Eastern Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences); Bardal, Anna B. (Far Eastern Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences); Suslov, Denis V. (Far Eastern Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences)
    Abstract: This study is the outcome of a joint research project commemorating the 15th anniversary of the establishment of the cooperative relationship between the Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP) and the Institute for Economic Research of the Far Eastern Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences (ERI). As is well known, the year 2020 marks the 30th anniversary of diplomatic relations between Korea and Russia. Therefore, it is time for the two countries to prepare for the "2.0 Era of Korea-Russia Cooperation" while comprehensively evaluating existing achievements and tasks. In particular, in order to build a sustainable relationship between the two countries, it is necessary to establish a strategic contact point between Korea's New Northern Policy and Russia's New Eastern Policy, which can be realized through bilateral and multilateral cooperation in the Far East. In this regard, the main purpose of this study is to understand the main directions, key objectives, and political and economic implications of Russia's policies in the Far East, which have been strategically pursued since the launch of Putin’s fourth term, and to explore new opportunities and possibilities for development cooperation in the Far East. We hope that this book will serve as a useful guide to open a new path for Far East development cooperation marking the 30th anniversary of Korea-Russia diplomatic relations.
    Keywords: Russia; Putin; Korea; cooperation; New Northern Policy; diplomatic relation
    Date: 2020–12–09
  5. By: Jelnov, Pavel (Leibniz University of Hannover)
    Abstract: How long survives perception of change after evaporation of the actual change? I investigate the effect of daylight on crime and fear of crime. Forty years of reforms shifted the boundaries between Russian eleven time zones. I find that a permanent switch to a later sunset leads to a two year long decrease in robbery and has no effect on homicide. The magnitude of the effect on robbery is similar to the previous estimates from other countries immediately after daylight saving time transitions. Even though the actual effect lasts two years, women report in a 10-year perspective increased feeling of safety even in darkness. However, men report increased feeling of safety only as long as the actual decrease in robbery persists.
    Keywords: crime, daylight saving time, fear of crime, homicide, robbery, Russia, time zones
    JEL: J18
    Date: 2021–10
  6. By: Kaelo Mpho Ntwaepelo
    Abstract: This paper examines the macroeconomic effects of the macroprudential and monetary policy shocks, in a framework where the policies target both the price and financial stability objectives. I employ the system-generalised method of moments (system-GMM) technique in a dynamic panel data model, over the 1990-2016 period. The study uses the novel integrated macroprudential policy dataset (iMaPP) in the context of the five major emerging market economies: Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS). The results indicate that a contractionary monetary policy shock eliminates the excessive growth of credit and house prices but increases the price levels (price puzzle). The presence of a price puzzle after a contractionary monetary policy shock indicates that there is a trade-off between the financial stability and price stability objectives. Similarly, the impulse response function analysis reveals the presence of a negative correlation between the financial variables and output, after a contractionary macroprudential policy shock. Overall, the empirical findings suggest that there is a policy conflict when the policies respond to additional objectives beyond their primary targets. It is therefore beneficial for each policy to focus on its primary objective while considering the spillover effects of the other policy.
    Keywords: emerging markets, macroprudential policy, financial stability, monetary policy, price stability
    JEL: E58 E61 G28
    Date: 2021–11–10
  7. By: Danielyan, Vladimir; Polterovich, Victor
    Abstract: We improve and investigate a dynamic model of the behavior of the population of agents belonging to different income groups during the transition from a pay-as-you-go to a mixed pension system. The model is based on the assumption that wealthier participants are characterized by a lower rate of income discount, which actually means an orientation toward a longer planning horizon. It provides a satisfactory approximation of the trajectories observed in Argentina after the pension reform of 1993, which is largely similar to the Russian reform of 2002. The model shows that as income increases, the proportion of representatives of the corresponding income group who prefer to "keep in the shadow" should decrease. This pattern is consistent with observations. The model explains why pension reforms in many countries have resulted in an expansion of the shadow sector. The impact of the minimum pension, the rate of return on pension savings and the retirement age on the levels of participation of different income groups in the pension system is studied.
    Keywords: pension reform, pay-as-you-go system, fully-funded system, retirement age, minimum seniority, informal sector, participation level
    JEL: D02 E02 H55 O43
    Date: 2021–11–14
  8. By: Akhmadiyeva, Zarema; Herzfeld, Thomas
    Keywords: Land Economics/Use, Farm Management
    Date: 2021–08
  9. By: Grogan, Louise (University of Guelph)
    Abstract: The dissolution of the Soviet Union and 1992-96 Tajik civil war resulted in huge human and economic losses. Nevertheless, contemporary data suggest the persistence of investments in human capital in the region most affected by famine and least favoured since the cessation of hostilities, Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Oblast. Famine-affected women have greater stature and final educational attainment, later ages at marriage and lower fertility than do those in the neighbouring border province, Khatlon. Educational interactions between adults and children under age six are much more frequent. The continued emphasis on human capital after economic collapse is consistent with a locational imperative for households to earn incomes outside of agriculture, and with a higher relative status of women in non-agrarian societies.
    Keywords: food security, anthropometry, schooling, child mortality, early childhood education, civil war, Tajikistan
    JEL: H4 J1
    Date: 2021–10
  10. By: Gaurab Aryal; Hanna Charankevich; Seungwon Jeong; Dong-Hyuk Kim
    Abstract: We propose an empirical method to analyze data from first-price procurements where bidders are asymmetric in their risk-aversion (CRRA) coefficients and distributions of private costs. Our Bayesian approach evaluates the likelihood by solving type-symmetric equilibria using the boundary-value method and integrates out unobserved heterogeneity through data augmentation. We study a new dataset from Russian government procurements focusing on the category of printing papers. We find that there is no unobserved heterogeneity (presumably because the job is routine), but bidders are highly asymmetric in their cost and risk-aversion. Our counterfactual study shows that choosing a type-specific cost-minimizing reserve price marginally reduces the procurement cost; however, inviting one more bidder substantially reduces the cost, by at least 5.5%. Furthermore, incorrectly imposing risk-neutrality would severely mislead inference and policy recommendations, but the bias from imposing homogeneity in risk-aversion is small.
    Date: 2021–11

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