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on Confederation of Independent States |
| By: | Mathias Juust |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the effects on the exports of Estonian firms of the Russian export shock of 2014, which was a multifaceted negative market-wide income shock. The dataset covers all the Estonian exporters that exported to Russia in 2013 and the empirical analysis uses a difference-in-difference method in combination with the coarsened exact matching method to account for heterogeneities between the treatment and control groups. I find that the wholesalers affected were able to show better export performance after the shock than direct exporters were. The trade performance after the shock was lower for both wholesalers and direct exporters that had lower initial productivity levels. |
| Keywords: | export shock, firm-level trade effects, trade effects, trade policy |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mtk:febawb:133&r= |
| By: | Jeong, Minhyeon (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)); Min, Jiyoung (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)); Jeong, Dongyeon (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)); Kim, Sang Hwan (Korea Techno-Venture Foundation) |
| Abstract: | Russia has been chronically suffering from a structural problem that its economy heavily relies on energy resources. The long-standing and excessive economic dependence on the energy sector decayed qualitative growth through productivity, necessary for long-term growth as the economic transition to mid- and high-value-added manufacturing gets delayed. In other words, Russia's economic growth since 2008 can mostly be attributed to quantitative growth driven by physical capital and labor input. This study analyzes the impact of innovation in the IT sector on the Russian economy from a structural transformation perspective. More specifically, the research theoretically examines how technological innovation in the IT sector helps address the structural transformation delays that middle-income countries have suffered, and investigates the possibility of IT cooperation between Korea and Russia in policy and technological aspects. |
| Keywords: | IT Industry; Korea; Russia; cooperation; innovation |
| Date: | 2021–04–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kiepwe:2021_018&r= |
| By: | Arthur Akhmetov (Bank of Russia, Russian Federation); Anna Burova (Bank of Russia, Russian Federation); Natalia Makhankova (Bank of Russia, Russian Federation); Alexey Ponomarenko (Bank of Russia, Russian Federation) |
| Abstract: | We offer tools for measuring, monitoring and analysing the liquidity of financial markets in the context of various liquidity aspects. The liquidity mismatch concept makes it possible to assess how liquidity risk acceptance varies across economic sectors. We calculate liquidity indices – that is, liquidity mismatch indicators, and conduct a comparative analysis of the degree of liquidity risk acceptance by various sectors of the Russian economy. The values of liquidity indices in the household sector vary significantly across countries, depending on the degree of population involvement in the stock market. We use the proposed tools to assess the development of financial market segments in Russia and conduct cross-country comparisons of the degree of liquidity of capital markets. Higher liquidity of financial markets is associated with a higher development of these markets; however, this is fraught with liquidity risks that may lead to financial losses. Considering the concept of liquidity in various aspects, we expand the discussion of the availability and development of long-term investment financing in Russia. |
| Keywords: | market liquidity, liquidity mismatch, liquidity risks, bank-based and market- based financing, financial instruments, balances of financial assets and liabilities |
| JEL: | G10 G23 O16 |
| Date: | 2021–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bkr:wpaper:wps82&r= |
| By: | Mathias Juust |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the effects on the exports of Estonian firms of the Russian export shock of 2014, which was a multifaceted negative market-wide income shock. The dataset covers all the Estonian exporters that exported to Russia in 2013 and the empirical analysis uses a difference-in-difference method in combination with the coarsened exact matching method to account for heterogeneities between the treatment and control groups. I find that the wholesalers affected were able to show better export performance after the shock than direct exporters were. The trade performance after the shock was lower for both wholesalers and direct exporters that had lower initial productivity levels |
| Keywords: | export shock, firm-level trade effects, trade effects, trade policy |
| JEL: | F13 F14 F23 |
| Date: | 2021–11–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eea:boewps:wp2021-6&r= |
| By: | Fantazzini, Dean; Pushchelenko, Julia; Mironenkov, Alexey; Kurbatskii, Alexey |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the suitability of Google Trends data for the modeling and forecasting of interregional migration in Russia. Monthly migration data, search volume data, and macro variables are used with a set of univariate and multivariate models to study the migration data of the two Russian cities with the largest migration inflows: Moscow and Saint Petersburg. The empirical analysis does not provide evidence that the more people search online, the more likely they are to relocate to other regions. However, the inclusion of Google Trends data in a model improves the forecasting of the migration flows, because the forecasting errors are lower for models with internet search data than for models without them. These results also hold after a set of robustness checks that consider multivariate models able to deal with potential parameter instability and with a large number of regressors. |
| Keywords: | Migration; Forecasting; Google Trends; VAR; Cointegration; ARIMA; Russia; Time-varying VAR; Multivariate Ridge regression. |
| JEL: | C22 C32 C52 C53 C55 F22 J11 O15 R23 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:110452&r= |
| By: | Agapova, Anna |
| Abstract: | The article analyses the concept of "single window mechanism" used abroad and in the practice of the EAEU countries. It has been shown that the transition to paperless technologies is a feature of customs control is one of the important indicators of the development of the national single window mechanism. The work analyzed the correspondence of such elements as Interagency Electronic Interaction System and ST «Portal Seaport» with the reference model of the national single window mechanism. It was established that KPS «Portal Seaport» can be considered as a pilot project for the implementation of the single window mechanism, but is not a product that is a single window, because it does not meet the requirements for creating a single window mechanism. It was also established that the mechanism of the "single window" existing in Russia, as a member country of the EAEU, did not work out the interaction between the business community (B2B) and between business and the state (B2G). The article shows that the reference model of the "single window" existing abroad contains a comprehensive idea of the single window mechanism, its scope, and a single information space. The problems of further development of the single window mechanism, as well as the directions for their solution, were identified. |
| Keywords: | single window, EAEU, international trade, interagency interaction |
| JEL: | H70 K20 |
| Date: | 2021–03–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:110436&r= |
| By: | Miller, Marcus (University of Warwick); Zissimos, Ben (Exeter University Business School) |
| Abstract: | From a wide-ranging historical survey, Acemoglu and Robinson conclude that the preservation of liberty depends on being in a ‘narrow corridor’ where there is a balance of power between the state and society. We first examine the support Binmore's game-theoretic treatment of Social Contracts provides for such a ‘narrow corridor’ of liberty and justice – and what extremes to expect without them. We also consider how the biological model of Competing Species helps to describe the dynamics of conflicting powers outside the narrow corridor– where, as in contemporary Russia and China, any Social Contracts that exist are neither free nor fair. |
| Keywords: | liberty ; social contracts ; repeated games ; Competing Species ; anarchy ; Despotism ; Neofeudalism JEL Classification: C70 ; C73 ; P00 ; Z13 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wrk:warwec:1380&r= |
| By: | Vasily Astrov (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Alexandra Bykova (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Olga Pindyuk (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw) |
| Abstract: | This issue of the wiiw Monthly Report replaces our earlier series of the wiiw FDI Report. FDI in Central, East and Southeast Europe Chart of the month Are the Balkans poised for FDI-driven growth and modernisation? by Vasily Astrov Data availability and preliminary results for 2020 by Alexandra Bykova Last year, the inflow of FDI into CESEE was the weakest in a decade, and its profitability fell by 2 percentage points, to 7% on average. Slovakia and Ukraine both recorded negative FDI inflows, while Estonia maintained its leading position in per capita terms. Preliminary FDI data for 2020 are available from the most recent update of the wiiw FDI Database; this is the first of two FDI data releases planned for this year. Little sign of recovery from the COVID-related collapse yet, but some potential for near-shoring by Olga Pindyuk After a sharp decline last year, the prospects for recovery of FDI inflows to CESEE in 2021 are poor in most sectors, apart from ICT and energy. This is signalled by the decline in the number of greenfield projects announced in the last quarter of 2020. So far, the COVID-19 pandemic has had little effect on re-shoring and near-shoring. Monthly and quarterly statistics for Central, East and Southeast Europe |
| Keywords: | FDI inflows, FDI stocks, FDI profitability, FDI by instrument of financing, FDI methodology, greenfield FDI, supply chain disruptions, near-shoring, producer-related business services |
| Date: | 2021–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wii:mpaper:mr:2021-05&r= |
| By: | Prokopyev, Egor |
| Abstract: | Существующие пробелы в официальной статистики создают трудности для отечественных учёных в исследованиях социально-экономических процессов на уровне городских и сельских поселений. В статье предпринята попытка показать возможности сбора информации с альтернативного источника – официального сайта муниципального образования. На основании требований статьи 13 Федерального закона от 9 февраля 2009 г. № 8-ФЗ «Об обеспечении доступа к информации о деятельности государственных органов и органов местного самоуправления» определены информационные блоки, раскрывающие данные о социально-экономическом развитии муниципалитета. Проведён сбор данных по выбранным блокам в 105 из 109 муниципальных образований Республики Карелия. Установлено, что сбор данных по сайтам муниципальных образований целесообразно осуществлять только по 3 информационным блокам: отчёт главы по итогам года о проделанной работе, годовой отчёт об исполнении бюджета и сведения о доходах муниципальных служащих. Сделан вывод о том, что текущий уровень информационного наполнения муниципальных сайтов в Республике Карелия демонстрирует сильную асимметрию и позволяет их использовать сугубо как вспомогательный источник данных. The existing gaps in official statistics create difficulties for domestic scientists in the study of socioeconomic processes at the level of urban and rural settlements. The article attempts to show the possibilities of collecting information from an alternative source – the official website of the municipality. Based on the requirements of Article 13 of the Federal Law of February 9, 2009 No. 8-FZ «On Ensuring access to information on the activities of state bodies and local self-government bodies», information blocks that disclose data on the socio-economic development of the municipality are defined. Data was collected on selected blocks in 105 out of 109 municipalities of the Republic of Karelia. The conclusion is made that it is advisable to collect data on the websites of municipalities only for 3 information blocks. They are as follows: the report of the head on the results of the year on the work done, the annual report on budget execution and information on the income of municipal employees. It is concluded that the current level of information content of municipal websites in the Republic of Karelia demonstrates a strong asymmetry and allows them to be used purely as an auxiliary data source. |
| Keywords: | муниципальная статистика; сайты поселений; сбор информации; социально-экономическое развитие; Республика Карелия |
| JEL: | R11 R12 R13 R50 |
| Date: | 2021–10–31 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:110531&r= |
| By: | Eva Brandten |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the relations between risk attitudes and expectations and different aspects of borrowing by households in Estonia. The central research question is whether risk aversion and optimism provide additional information beyond the main economic and sociodemographic characteristics in explaining borrowing behaviour. The paper uses microdata from the Estonian Household Finance and Consumption Survey (HFCS) to estimate probit and Heckman models. My analysis shows that risk-tolerant households apply for loans more often than risk-averse households do and that their loans are larger. For mortgage loans, risk aversion is related to the probability of having a loan, whereas for non-mortgage loans, risk aversion is related to the size of the outstanding liabilities. The variables describing the household’s expectations for its future financial situation are on their own related to the decision to apply for a loan, but they do not contain any relevant additional information beyond the main economic and sociodemographic characteristics of the household |
| Keywords: | household debt, mortgage loans, non-mortgage loans, borrowing decisions, income and price expectations, risk attitudes, Household Finance and Consumption Survey |
| JEL: | G51 D14 |
| Date: | 2021–11–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eea:boewps:wp2021-5&r= |
| By: | Nahmadova, Firuza |
| Abstract: | Azerbaijan’s accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO) has been under discussion since the late 1990s, however this process is not any closer to being achieved today. Despite the government’s multiple economic reforms and the implementation of strategic roadmaps, the same can not be said about Azerbaijan’s commitment to bilateral and multilateral market access negotiations (WTO 2017). The objective of this article is to investigate the potential impact of WTO accession on the economic strategy of Azerbaijan. Contrary to other WTO members, China does not automatically apply the Most-Favored Nation (MFN) tariff rate to non-members. The cost-benefit analysis in this paper suggests that the Azerbaijani goods with the highest untapped potential in China suffer from the application of the General Tariff Rate (GTR) versus the MFN tariff applied to all WTO members (China Customs 2021; International Trade Center, 2021). Findings suggest that Azerbaijan’s WTO accession is required for this country to integrate into the Middle Corridor and reap its benefits fully. |
| Keywords: | Trade, Azerbaijan, China, WTO, customs, tariffs, Middle Corridor |
| JEL: | C15 F13 F17 O19 O53 |
| Date: | 2021–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:110331&r= |