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on Confederation of Independent States |
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Issue of 2021‒11‒15
six papers chosen by |
| By: | Xiufeng Yan; Qi Tang |
| Abstract: | We study the effect of globalization of world economy between 1980 and 2010 by using network analysis technics on trade and GDP data of 71 countries in the world. We draw results distinguishing relatively developing and relatively developed countries during this period of time and point out the standing out economies among the BRICS countries during the years of globalization: within our context of study, China and Russia are the countries that already exhibit developed economy characters, India is next in line but have some unusual features, while Brazil and South Africa still have erratic behaviors |
| Date: | 2021–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2111.02633&r= |
| By: | Zubarev, Andrey; Kirillova, Maria |
| Abstract: | In this paper we use a global vector autoregression (GVAR) model to study the response of Russian macroeconomic indicators to external shocks. The model includes individual models for the world's largest economies and a model for the oil market. Our specification takes into account the peculiarities of the Russian economy and the persistence of variables in the oil market. We also obtained the impulse response functions to the oil supply shock in Saudi Arabia. |
| Keywords: | global vector autoregression, GVAR, oil prices, GDP, oil production, impulse response function |
| JEL: | C32 E17 F47 |
| Date: | 2021–10–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:110410&r= |
| By: | Park, Joungho (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)); Kim, Seok Hwan (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)); Jeong, Minhyeon (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)); Kang, Boogyun (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)); Kim, Cho Rong (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)); Sutyrin, Sergei (St. Petersburg State University); Trofimenko, Olga (St. Petersburg State University); Korgun, Irina (Russian Academy of Science) |
| Abstract: | The main goal of this study is to identify policy implications for investment cooperation between Korea and Russia in the 4th term of President Putin and to seek ways to increase mutual investment. In particular, case studies were conducted of various investment cooperation projects by Russia with other countries amid the ongoing fourth industrial revolution, aiming to suggest more practical approaches to increase Korean investment in Russia. Marking the 30 years since establishment of diplomatic relations between Korea and Russia, we need to look back on economic cooperation between the two countries and seek ways to develop cooperation one step further. We are seeing fundamental changes in the industrial structure due to reorganization of the international order and digital transformation – such as competition be-tween the United States and China, the establishment of strategic cooperative relations between China and Russia (the so-called fourth industrial revolution), ecosystem disturbances due to climate change and the COVID-19 pandemic, etc. It is necessary to prepare a new type of cooperation strategy in consideration of the fundamental change of paradigm. |
| Keywords: | Korea; Russial Putin; investment; cooperation; fourth industrial revolution |
| Date: | 2021–09–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kiepwe:2021_042&r= |
| By: | Конурбаева Наталья // Konurbayeva Natalya (National Bank of Kazakhstan); Нурханова Оксана // Nurkhanova Oxana (National Bank of Kazakhstan); Хакимжанов Сабит // Khakimzhanov Sabit (National Bank of Kazakhstan) |
| Abstract: | В этой статье проводится анализ источника информации – Кредитный регистр, для оценки портфеля банков на уровне каждого займа (loan level data). В статье вводится понятие дефолта, основанного на косвенных показателях с использованием кредитного регистра. Разрабатываются показатели, которые можно использовать для оценки динамики состояния каждого займа с возможностью агрегирования на уровень заёмщика. Проводится аналитическая оценка, позволяющая выявить рефинансированные займы и «вечнозелёные» займы. Описаны и внедрены категории для распределения займов внутри портфеля с целью своевременного выявления ухудшения состояния займа, позволяющего применять меры раннего реагирования со стороны надзорного органа, а также оценивать кредитный риск на уровне банковской системы. Проведена проверка качества методики на основе имеющихся исторических сведений по передаче портфеля в Фонд проблемных кредитов и признания банком займов с просроченной задолженностью свыше 90 дней перед лишением лицензии, а также оценён объём ложноположительных значений, выявляемых по методике, но в последующем предоставленным в Кредитный регистр с нулевым основным долгом. Представленная методика является первой попыткой применения анализа на основе займа в Казахстане, которую можно развивать с использованием новых расширенных данных по займу и заёмщику, внедрённых в Кредитный регистр с июля 2019 года. Кроме того, следующим этапом после оценки качества портфеля планируется оценка вероятности дефолта заёмщика, а также проведение стресс тестирования. // This Paper analyzes the source of information – the Credit Registry – to assess the portfolio of banks at the level of each loan (loan level data). The Paper introduces the concept of default based on indirect indicators using the Credit Registry. Indicators that can be used to assess the dynamics in the status of each loan with the ability to aggregate at the borrower level are being designed. An analytical assessment is conducted to identify refinanced loans and “evergreen” loans. The categories for the distribution of loans within the portfolio are described and introduced in order to identify the deterioration of loan on a timely basis, allowing the application of early response measures by the supervisor as well as the assessment of credit risk at the banking system’s level. The quality of the methodology was checked on the basis of available historical information about the transfer of the portfolio to the Problem Loans Fund and the recognition by the bank of loans past due more than 90 days before the license was revoked; in addition, the volume of false positives detected by the methodology but subsequently submitted to the Credit Registry with zero main debt was assessed. The presented methodology is the first attempt of applying a loan-based analysis in Kazakhstan that can be developed using the new extended loan and borrower data incorporated into the Credit Registry since July 2019. Besides, the next stage after assessing the quality of portfolio will be the assessment of probability of borrower’s default as well as the stress testing. |
| Keywords: | кредитный риск, кредитный анализ, вероятность дефолта, кредитный регистр, анализ на уровне займа, рефинансирование, «вечнозелёные» займы, сredit risk, loan review, probability of default, сredit Registry, loan level review, refinancing, "evergreen" loans |
| JEL: | C81 C83 G21 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aob:wpaper:24&r= |
| By: | Vasilieva, Anastasia |
| Abstract: | В работе выполнена оценка влияния факторов формирования пространственной организации на выделенные подсистемы региональной экономической системы. Осуществленный анализ демонстрирует, что система факторов экономического развития находится в процессе перманентной трансформации (укрупнение и дезагрегирование). При этом оценки сформулированы с точки зрения степени влияния фактора, в разных исходных ситуациях, когда влияние может быть как положительным, так и негативным. С учетом неравномерности и разнонаправленности влияния факторов на развитие экономических систем и их подсистем, автор приходит к выводу, что усилия исследователей должны быть направлены на изучение новых возможностей развития при одновременном проявлении ряда новых серьезных ограничений и рисков для отдельных подсистем. The paper evaluates the influence of factors of formation of a spatial organization on the identified subsystems of the regional economic system. The performed analysis demonstrates that the system of factors of economic development is in the process of permanent transformation (consolidation and disaggregation). At the same time, the assessments are formulated from the point of view of the degree of influence of the factor, in different initial situations, when the influence can be both positive and negative. the author comes to the conclusion that the efforts of researchers should be aimed at studying new development opportunities with the simultaneous manifestation of a number of new serious limitations and risks for individual subsystems. The author also took into account the unevenness and multidirectionality of the influence of factors on the development of economic systems and their subsystems. |
| Keywords: | региональная экономическая система, пространственная организация, экономические факторы regional economic system, spatial organization, economic factors |
| JEL: | R52 R58 |
| Date: | 2021–06–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:110358&r= |
| By: | Nahmadova, Firuza |
| Abstract: | It is often assumed in the ’political economy research of the last decade, as well as by theories on democratization waves and the fall of authoritarian states, that the rise of a middle class eventually leads to a democratic transition. Throughout the 20th century, many democratic transitions were led by mass mobilizations of the middle classes. Middle-class movements and industrial worker groups were associated with higher democratic support and mobilization from 1900 to 2013 (NAVCO 2014). In her book The Autocratic Middle Class: How State Dependency Reduces the Demand for Democracy (2020), Bryn Rosenfeld studies this relationship in the post-Soviet region. A large portion of this article is based on her research. |
| Keywords: | Azerbaijan, middle class, income inequality, democracy, regime change |
| JEL: | H13 J31 O10 O53 |
| Date: | 2021–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:110330&r= |