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on Confederation of Independent States |
| By: | Ksenia V. Rozhkova (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Natalya Yemelina (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Sergey Yu. Roshchin (National Research University Higher School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | Non-cognitive skills are widely recognized in economics as an important factor that affects various individual outcomes, including wages and employment. Non-cognitive skills can also serve as an additional explanation for the gender wage gap. This paper disentangles the complex relationship between non-cognitive skills and the gender wage gap based on Russian data. Data are collected from a nationally representative Russian survey RLMS-HSE and include detailed information on individuals aged 20–60. We use the Big Five factor model, locus of control, and attitudes towards risk to represent non-cognitive skills. Our findings suggest that non-cognitive skills account for up to 8 per cent of the gender wage gap, although significant variation is observed with different measures of personality and across the wage distribution. We conclude that personality traits are noteworthy but not exhaustive factors in the gender wage gap, and there are other unobserved factors which researchers have yet to identify. |
| Keywords: | gender wage gap, non-cognitive skills, personality traits, unconditional quantile regression, Russia |
| JEL: | J16 J24 J31 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hig:wpaper:252/ec/2021&r= |
| By: | Оспанов Нурлан // Ospanov Nurlan (National Bank of Kazakhstan); Алмагамбетова Меруерт // Almagambetova Meruyert (National Bank of Kazakhstan); Құратова Ақбөпе // Kuratova Akbope (National Bank of Kazakhstan); Тұрабай Бердібек // Turabai Berdibek (National Bank of Kazakhstan); Сейдахметова Клара // Seidakhmetova Klara (National Bank of Kazakhstan); Рысбекова Аида // Rysbekova Aida (National Bank of Kazakhstan) |
| Abstract: | НБРК продолжает цикл исследований, посвященных анализу внешнеэкономической деятельности. Целью данного исследования является разработка целостной системы прогнозирования платежного баланса Казахстана, позволяющей оценить устойчивость внешнего сектора экономики для эффективной реализации денежно-кредитной политики. В исследовании представлен анализ международных потоков капитала и потоков капитала в Казахстане, рассмотрен мировой опыт прогнозирования финансового счета, а также раскрыта система прогнозирования финансового счета в НБРК. // The NBRK continues the series of studies devoted to the analysis of foreign economic activity. The purpose of this study is to develop an integral system of forecasting the balance of payments of Kazakhstan, which allows assessing the sustainability of the external sector of the economy for effective implementation of monetary policy. The study presents the analysis of international capital flows and those in Kazakhstan, considers the world experience of the capital account forecasting, as well as reveals the system of forecasting of the capital account in the NBRK. |
| Keywords: | финансовый счет, прогноз финансового счета, международное движение капитала, прямые инвестиции, портфельные инвестиции, эконометрические модели, capital account, capital account forecasting, international capital flows, direct investments, portfolio investments, econometric models |
| JEL: | E22 E27 E44 F01 F41 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aob:wpaper:23&r= |
| By: | Mikhail Mamonov; Anna Pestova |
| Abstract: | How large are the macroeconomic effects of financial sanctions and how one can distinguish the sanction shocks from other aggregate shocks affecting the economy at the same time? We employ a Bayesian (S)VAR model to estimate the effects of the Western financial sanctions imposed on the Russian economy in 2014 (first wave) and 2017 (second wave). The sanctions decreased the Russia’s corporate external debt and raised the country spread, but their effects were confounded by falling oil prices in 2014 (negative terms-of-trade, TOT, shock) and rising oil prices in 2017. We begin disentangling the sanction and TOT effects with a conditional forecasting approach, in which we simulate pseudo out-of-sample projections of domestic macroeconomic variables conditioned (i) solely on the oil price changes and then (ii) on both oil prices and external debt deleveraging. For each endogenous variable, we treat the difference between the two projections as the effect of sanctions. We then apply a structural approach to identify sanction shocks. Our results consistently indicate that the sanction effects were negative and non-negligible across the two sanction waves, being sizeable for the financial variables (real interest rate and corporate external debt) and moderate for the real variables (output, consumption, investment, trade balance, and the ruble real exchange rate). We argue that the estimated effects of sanctions are in line with the theoretical predictions from the literature on country spread shocks in open economies. |
| Keywords: | financial sanctions; corporate external debt; country spread shocks; terms-of-trade shocks; Bayesian (S)VAR; sign restrictions; conditional forecasting; small open economy; |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cer:papers:wp704&r= |
| By: | Ahmed, Osama; Glauben, Thomas; Heigermoser, Maximilian; Prehn, Sören |
| Abstract: | Рост доходов, изменение предпочтений потребителей и технический прогресс оказывают преобразующее влияние на мировую торговлю продуктами питания и, в частности, на рынки пшеницы. Об этом свидетельствуют два основных тренда: во-первых, растущий спрос на пшеницу в Азии и Африке все в большей степени удовлетворяется Европейским союзом (ЕС) и Черноморским регионом (ЧМР), которые заменили Соединенные Штаты (США) в качестве основных игроков на мировом рынке пшеницы. Во-вторых, и как следствие, фьючерсный рынок Euronext, который отражает фундаментальные характеристики спроса и предложения в ЕС и ЧМР, становится все более важным для определения мировых цен на пшеницу. Учитывая эти две тенденции, ЕС и ЧМР должны взять на себя больше ответственности за обеспечение глобальной продовольственной безопасности и за борьбу с голодом и недоеданием. Для достижения этого требуется более широкое международное сотрудничество, в частности, между крупными западными и восточными экономическими державами. Отсутствие ограничений в международной торговле является жизненно важным для обеспечения достаточного количества продовольствия во всем мире, в то время как ужесточение экономических санкций и контрсанкций ставит под угрозу продовольственную безопасность, особенно в регионах, зависящих от импорта. Поэтому общественное обсуждение торговых и экономических санкций должно быть более объективным и в большей степени учитывать как региональные, так и глобальные потребности. |
| Keywords: | Food Security and Poverty, International Relations/Trade |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iamopb:314671&r= |
| By: | Tatiana Grishina (Bank of Russia, Russian Federation); Alexey Ponomarenko (Bank of Russia, Russian Federation) |
| Abstract: | Assuming that a central bank is successful in steering money market interest rates, commercial banks’ loan rate setting behaviour is not expected to change during a transition between liquidity surplus and deficit. However, this logic does not hold if a bank employs different money market instruments for the lending and borrowing activities. In this environment, it may be appropriate to adjust the loan rates when a bank transitions between liquidity surplus and deficit (i.e. switches between the benchmark money market rates). This strategy is fundamentally different from linking the loan rates to the average cost of funding (i.e. the average between retail and wholesale funding rates). The magnitude of such loan rate adjustment is limited by the (usually moderate) spread between the funding and investment money market rates. |
| Keywords: | Excess reserves, Lending rates, Fund transfer pricing, Russia |
| JEL: | E43 E51 E58 G21 C63 |
| Date: | 2021–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bkr:wpaper:wps79&r= |
| By: | Алимбетова Индира // Alimbetova Indira (National Bank of Kazakhstan); Кадырбеков Темирлан // Kadyrbekov Temirlan (National Bank of Kazakhstan); Мустафин Ерулан // Mustafin Yerulan (National Bank of Kazakhstan); Ыбраев Жандос // Ybrayev Zhandos (National Bank of Kazakhstan) |
| Abstract: | В этой статье обсуждаются факторы, лежащие в основе низкой ликвидности и глубины рынка государственных ценных бумаг Казахстана. Рассматриваются потенциал развития рынка, варианты улучшения его структуры и функционирования. Мы концентрируемся на микроструктурных характеристиках рынка ГЦБ, влияющих на уровень его ликвидности. Обсуждаем факторы, такие как структура долговых инструментов, конкуренция и концентрация, управление номенклатурой, а также уровень прозрачности информации. В частности, мы предлагаем обсудить и попытаться понять, как те или иные изменения в некоторых из этих факторов с течением времени могут повлиять на эволюцию ликвидности, глубину и структурированность рынка. // This article covers factors that underlie low liquidity and depth of government securities market the of Kazakhstan. It discusses potential of market development, options to improve its structure and functioning. We focus on microstructural characteristics of the government securities market, which affects a level of its liquidity. We discuss factors such as structure of debt instruments, competition and concentration, nomenclature management and level of information transparency. In particular, we propose to discuss and try to understand how certain changes in some of these factors over time can affect the evolution of liquidity, depth and structuredness of the market. |
| Keywords: | государственные ценные бумаги, ликвидность, государственный долг, рынок ценных бумаг, government securities, liquidity, government debt, securities market |
| JEL: | H63 G11 G14 G15 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aob:wpaper:22&r= |
| By: | Vîntu, Denis |
| Abstract: | The article describes a dynamic general equilibrium for the Republic of Moldova, in the context of declining oil prices and COVID-19. We try to introduce an intergenerational model with the stochastic component, where we describe each self-employed agent, rather we try to adapt the model in a simulative tax reform, a transition from the progressive system that currently we have to a flat tax. For our hypothesis, it is assumed that there are 4 cohorts of population, selected by level of education (secondary, high school, university and lifelong learning) that pay taxes in a system based on social solidarity. Thus, the first conclusions can be drawn, namely that the tax system with 4 different rates 12, 15, 19 and 23% is the one that best approaches the Pareto type optimum, as opposed to the flat tax, which respects dynamic equilibrium. Public budget revenues are simulated in IS-LM-Laffer framework. And the forecast of budget accumulation is made using 4 distinct prediction models: naïve random walk, ARIMA, univariate model (AR) and vector error correction model (VECM). In addition, the main result is placed on the hypothesis that the empirical testing suggest that, unlike complicated models that have difficulty overcoming naïve random walk imitation, using techniques of associating and including monetary and fiscal indicators in linear regression, as well as adding structural shapes, some parameters of the models are quite significant. Of these, it seems that the closest to the economic reality of the country is the univariate model (AR), being also the most relevant for predicting the out-put gap, but also the stochastic component: the basic interest rate of the NBM's monetary policy. |
| Keywords: | fiscal reform, monetary policy, cross-country convergence, prediction and forecasting methods, dynamic general equilibrium model, Pareto optimal balance, ARIMA modeling, time series analysis, Box – Jenkins method. |
| JEL: | C10 C15 E23 E31 E52 E62 |
| Date: | 2021–04–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:110113&r= |
| By: | Jozef Konings (Nazarbayev University, Graduate School of Business); Galiya Sagyndykova (Nazarbayev University, Department of Economics); Venkat Subramanian (Nazarbayev University, Graduate School of Business); Astrid Volckaert (KU Leuven, Faculteit Economie en Bedrijfswetenschappen, Vlaams Instituut voor Economie en Samenleving (VIVES)) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the importance of idiosyncratic firm specific shocks for explaining macroeconomic fluctuations in an emerging economy. To this end, we use detailed quarterly firm level data to document that the firm size distribution is fat-tailed and that idiosyncratic shocks of the largest 30 firms appear to explain nearly 80% of the growth in aggregate total factor productivity. This confirms earlier research for the U.S. of the "granular hypothesis" (Gabaix, 2011). Thus individual firm shocks do not average out in the aggregate as is assumed in most of the macroeconomic literature, instead, macroeconomic questions can be answered by analyzing the behavior of the largest firms. |
| Keywords: | granularity, firm heterogeneity, aggregate fluctuations, Total Factor Productivity, transitional economies |
| JEL: | D24 E23 E32 L16 L25 P27 |
| Date: | 2021–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:asx:nugsbw:2021-01&r= |
| By: | Florkowski, Wojciech J.; Nouve, Yawotse |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy, Resource/Energy Economics and Policy, Agribusiness |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea21:313952&r= |