nep-cis New Economics Papers
on Confederation of Independent States
Issue of 2021‒10‒04
sixteen papers chosen by
Alexander Harin
Modern University for the Humanities

  1. To Grow or Not to Grow: Belarus and Lithuania By Thorvaldur Gylfason; Eduard Hochreiter
  2. Overview of the main trends in the execution of consolidated budgets of the regions of the Russian Far East in 2019 and the features of budgetary processes in 2021 By Elena Veprikova; Ilya Shevchenko
  3. The Political Economy of Russian Energy Policy: Evolution and Performance After Market Transition By Dai Yamawaki
  4. Republic of Tajikistan: 2015 Article IV Consultation-Press Release and Staff Report By International Monetary Fund
  5. An Economic Response to COVID-19 By Nurdaulet Abilov; Alisher Tolepbergen; Aizhan Bolatbayeva; Zarina Adilkhanova; Erlan Konebayev; Zhandos Ybrayev
  6. Cyber Capacity Building in the Canadian Arctic and the North By Csenkey, Kristen; Perron, Bruno
  7. Republic of Tajikistan: 2017 Article IV Consultation-Press Release and Staff Report By International Monetary Fund
  8. Republic of Tajikistan: 2013 Article IV Consultation-Press Release and Staff Report By International Monetary Fund
  9. Republic of Kazakhstan: Technical Assistance Report-Government Finance Statistics By International Monetary Fund
  10. Republic of Tajikistan: Selected Issues By International Monetary Fund
  11. Republic of Tajikistan: Selected Issues By International Monetary Fund
  12. Republic of Tajikistan: 2019 Article IV Consultation-Press Release and Staff Report By International Monetary Fund
  13. Republic of Tajikistan: Selected Issues By International Monetary Fund
  14. Reform of Higher Legal Education: Global Issues By Anatoliy Kostruba
  15. Georgia: Financial System Stability Assessment By International Monetary Fund

  1. By: Thorvaldur Gylfason; Eduard Hochreiter (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw)
    Abstract: We compare the economic growth performance of Belarus and Lithuania since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. Our interest in this country pair is driven by the two countries´ interwoven histories as well as by the fact that Belarus remains autocratic and strongly tied to Russia, while Lithuania has reinvented itself as a democratic market economy fully integrated into the EU. Our aim is to better understand the extent to which the growth differential between the two countries can be traced to increased efficiency, i.e., total factor productivity, in the use of capital and other resources via, inter alia, better institutions (intensive growth) as opposed to sheer accumulation of capital (extensive growth), the hallmark of Soviet economic growth. To this end, we compare the development of some key determinants of growth in the two countries since the 1990s. A simple growth accounting model suggests that advances in education at all levels, good governance, and institutional reforms have played a more significant role in raising economic output and efficiency in Lithuania than in Belarus, which remains marred by problems related to weak governance as well as autocratic rule. Further, as in Estonia and Latvia, the EU perspective has made a significant contribution to growth in Lithuania. The Russian connection has done less for Belarus. Finally, we touch upon the impact of the corona virus on the economies of the two countries.
    Keywords: Economic growth, Belarus, Lithuania, Governance, Transition economies, Education, Economic reforms, Exports, Inflation, Labour markets, Corona virus
    JEL: O11 O16 O19
    Date: 2021–09
  2. By: Elena Veprikova; Ilya Shevchenko (Eastern State Planning Center)
    Abstract: The article is about the main trends in the execution of the consolidated budgets of the regions of the Russian Far East in 2019 (as of 01.10.2020). Conclusions are drawn about the preservation of the main trends and characteristics of the budget systems of the Far Eastern regions, which were observed earlier (in 2018). According to the data for 9 months of 2020, the features of the execution of regional consolidated budgets in the Far Eastern Federal District were analyzed in the context of overcoming the consequences of the spread of a new coronavirus infection.
    Keywords: budget system, consolidated budget, Russian Far East
    JEL: E62 H75 H76
    Date: 2020–12
  3. By: Dai Yamawaki (Institute of Economic Research, Kyoto University)
    Abstract: The present study examines the transformation of Russian energy policy ad its performance after market transition. On the basis of historical policy review, it reveals that environmental conservation in energy industry has been repeatedly specified in Russian energy policy after the 1990s whilst its focus has still descended to quantitative expansion of hydrocarbons. In this context, this paper explains this situation from the perspective of coordination mechanism such as market and government. Despite a series of liberal policies during market transition, it becomes clear that Russian energy market has not been completely liberalised in terms of price and privatisation and retained control of the government, whilst the process of energy policy formation and implementation has been highly politicised, especially since the 2000s. This paper also derives some characteristics of Russia in those circumstances, such as an existence of strong state monopoly, recognition of energy as public goods, and environmental incompatibility with the existing growth model, which are raised as propositions given to Russian energy policy and challenges to be overcome for its future sustainable growth.
    Keywords: Russia, energy policy, market, government, transition
    JEL: P28 P52 Q32
    Date: 2021–09
  4. By: International Monetary Fund
    Abstract: Growth has been strong and poverty has fallen in the past decade, though Tajikistan faces rising vulnerabilities. Growth is now softening and the external position has weakened dramatically as remittances have fallen with the sharp slowdown in Russia and earnings from cotton and aluminum exports have dropped due to global market developments. The exchange rate is under pressure and international reserves are thin. The fiscal position has been near balance in recent years and debt has been kept low, while fiscal space is becoming limited by rising debt service and contingent liabilities.
    Keywords: headline inflation; burden indicator; Tajikistan FSAP update; NBT reform action plan; liquidity lending; transparency policy; Public and publicly-guaranteed external debt; Debt sustainability analysis; Exchange rates; South Asia; Central Asia; Global; Middle East and Central Asia; Europe
    Date: 2021–09–03
  5. By: Nurdaulet Abilov (NAC Analytica, Nazarbayev University); Alisher Tolepbergen (NAC Analytica, Nazarbayev University); Aizhan Bolatbayeva (NAC Analytica, Nazarbayev University); Zarina Adilkhanova (NAC Analytica, Nazarbayev University); Erlan Konebayev (NAC Analytica, Nazarbayev University); Zhandos Ybrayev
    Abstract: Current report presents economic analyses and policy recommendations for Kazakhstan based on the research and models of NAC Analytica (Nazarbayev University) in close coordination with the academics of the Economics Department (Nazarbayev University). The main objective of the report is the formulation of economic policy in response to the pandemic COVID-19 that has infected over 3 million people over the world and poses a substantial risk to the economy of Kazakhstan and of the rest of the world. Hence, there is an impeccable need for designing informed fiscal, monetary and social policy responses to combat in an effective manner a negative impact of the pandemic on the economy.
    Keywords: COVID-19; Fiscal policy; Forecasts; Pandemic; Kazakhstan
    JEL: E17 E32 E37 E61 E62
    Date: 2020–04
  6. By: Csenkey, Kristen; Perron, Bruno
    Abstract: The Canadian Arctic cyber domain is set to rapidly expand in the next decade with emerging security vulnerabilities that would benefit from a multi-stakeholder Arctic Cyber Security Ecosystem. Great power competition will affect the Arctic as the United States, Russia, and now China seek to influence the resource rich region. Cyber is not only a matter of defence, but it is interconnected with education and economic development. The threat of disinformation is an example of how new ways of warfare can impact Canada through the Arctic. Cyber capacity building (CCB) could include domestic cyber education, skills training, and investment in scientific and technical (S&T) and information technology (IT) infrastructure. A focus on CCB would need to foster growth of resources available to territorial governments and local communities, hardening the region’s cyberspace and support incident response to malicious cyber actor activity. Information technology security (ITSEC) resources need to be combined with community-based media literacy and critical thinking education programs to increase the region’s resilience to malign influence.
    Date: 2020–10–27
  7. By: International Monetary Fund
    Abstract: Tajikistan is the poorest of the eight Central Asian and Caucasus countries. Economic growth has been high and funded by inward remittances, but poverty remains significant. Macroeconomic policies were generally prudent before the external shocks (lower oil and commodity prices and weaker growth in trading partners) in 2015-16, but slow progress in structural reforms constrained diversification and employment generation. External shocks (through lower remittances and currency depreciation) and an inadequate policy response weakened the external position, exposed major weaknesses in the banking system, and contributed to a rise in public debt. Program discussions held in 2016 were not concluded. While the authorities launched a bank recapitalization plan in December 2016 to maintain depositor confidence and financial stability, additional banking sector reforms are needed.
    Keywords: bank governance; banking sector governance; Tajik economy; debt indicator; creating flow; Creditor bail-in; Public and publicly-guaranteed external debt; Financial statistics; Central Asia; Global; Europe
    Date: 2021–09–03
  8. By: International Monetary Fund
    Abstract: Tajikistan successfully completed a 3-year ECF-supported program in May 2012 and needs to continue with ambitious reforms. While growth is robust, it is non-inclusive, leading to large-scale outmigration that makes Tajikistan the most remittance-dependent country in the world. The country remains the poorest of the eight in the Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA) and stands next to last among the seven with rankings in the ease of doing business. Reliance on commodity imports, a narrow export base, and low buffers leave the economy vulnerable. Weak macroeconomic policy frameworks restrict the authorities’ ability to dampen shocks. State-directed lending and investment displace market-financed activity and create fiscal risks. Presidential elections are scheduled for November.
    Keywords: burden indicator; NBT reform action plan; flows shock; creating flow; headline inflation; NBT website; IMF's transparency policy; NBT internal audit; policy discussion; NBT Law; fund request; remittance inflow; Debt sustainability analysis; Monetary statistics; Global; Central Asia and the Caucasus
    Date: 2021–09–03
  9. By: International Monetary Fund
    Abstract: The mission welcomes the progress made by the RK in improving the quality of GFS. The Ministry of Finance has taken into account several recommendations of the previous mission on increasing transparency, improving data quality, and regarding the channels used to provide GFS. In particular, updated bridge tables are used when generating statistics, National Fund (NF) data are recorded separately from national budget (NB) data, and GFS are disseminated through the IMF Integrated Data Collection System.
    Date: 2021–09–08
  10. By: International Monetary Fund
    Abstract: Selected Issues
    Keywords: remittance inflow; Tajik remittance; growth-remittance spillover analysis; remittance determination; ruble-U.S. dollar exchange; Remittances; Oil prices; Exchange rates; Vector autoregression; Global
    Date: 2021–09–03
  11. By: International Monetary Fund
    Abstract: Selected Issues
    Keywords: D. tax incentives; tax incentives in Tajikistan; C. SOE reform effort; Tajikistan's tax incentives; staff team of the International Monetary Fund; Tax incentives; Corporate income tax; Fiscal risks; Public enterprises; Central Asia; Caribbean
    Date: 2021–09–03
  12. By: International Monetary Fund
    Abstract: Reported economic activity has been strong in 2018-19 and inflation has picked up. The monetary framework is being strengthened. The external position has deteriorated. The fiscal deficit has widened as revenues have declined. Reforms to place the loss-making energy sector on a sound financial footing are underway. The authorities’ development strategy relies on large infrastructure projects— Roghun dam and other large SOE-implemented projects — that need sizable external financing. The financial sector is recovering from the 2015-16 crisis, with a decline in nonperforming loans and improved profitability. The authorities are making efforts to strengthen bank supervision and regulation. However, two formerly-systemic banks remain insolvent and further reforms are needed to restore public confidence in banks.
    Keywords: debt vulnerability; medium debt-carrying capacity; bank governance; NBT reform action plan; depositor confidence; A. exchange rate Policy; dynamics equation; debt recording; Exchange rate flexibility; Exchange rates; Global; Central Asia
    Date: 2021–09–03
  13. By: International Monetary Fund
    Abstract: Selected Issues
    Keywords: Tajik banking sector; sample estimation; Tajik rail road; SOE Sector; B. tax revenue performance; Tajik cement; staff team of the International Monetary Fund; Tajik telecom; Fiscal risks; Commercial banks; Contingent liabilities; Nonperforming loans; Central Asia
    Date: 2021–09–03
  14. By: Anatoliy Kostruba (Vasyl Stefanyk Precarpathian National University)
    Abstract: The main vector of higher legal education development is determined by the general direction of the domestic higher school to join the all-European and world educational space, national and international standards harmonization of higher education in the context of the Bologna process. On the other hand, the rapid development of information technologies has led to the global computerization of society. The result of this phenomenon in the education field is a stable environment formation of developed data processing, information systems modular construction (combination of different architectural types within a single complex). As a result, knowledge building process for skills formation of professional competence is gradually changing the form of its realization. The wellknown learning goals of higher school revealed in such elements as knowledge, understanding and forms of their acquisition are changing. It is no coincidence that the problem for most universities is the fact that education is still more focused on knowledge and skills, rather than on personality development, consciousness formation and self-awareness of a specialist. Unfortunately, such changes do not always have a positive educational trajectory. It should be recognized that educational institutions are no longer the major educational source. Those basic learning goals, the achievement of which is the task of higher school, do not receive appropriate positive reflection in society. High level of knowledge with no skills of its application is the main factor of professional deformation of a graduating student of higher educational institution. This problem is clearly visible in the higher legal education sphere. In recent times, there has been a clear trend toward the transition from qualification to the competence-based model of the specialist. The emphasis in professional training is shifting to socio-personal and general professional competencies. Open statistical sources of the State Employment Service show that among the total number of unemployed persons with higher education who could not find the first job, persons with higher legal education occupy one of the leading places (26%). In early 2019, the Ministry of Justice of Ukraine together with the Ministry of Education and Science of Ukraine proposed a draft Concept of the Legal Education Reform for public discussion. Among the main problems were a mismatch between the content of legal education and training quality in legal schools with the modern requirements of the labour market and the challenges facing the modern democratic society, global trends in development and tasks of employees' professional activities in various fields. The abovementioned requires a change in the educational paradigm, one of the components of which, in our opinion, should be the transition to educational goals of a different qualitative type in the cognitive sphere, including the formation of applied professional legal skills, critical thinking development and so on. Unfortunately, there is not enough scientific research in this area of narrow thematic nature. No significant attention is paid to the pedagogical problems of lawyers' model formation with their readiness for social interaction. It is important to emphasize that among legal scholars there is no interest in the development and formation of legal pedagogy as a direction in pedagogy of higher education, the subject of which is the didactic peculiarities of the professional competence formation of lawyers. Part of the attention is paid to the professional competence formation among students of higher educational institutions in the legal field by scholars of pedagogical science, in particular, the theory and methods of training and education (according to the fields and educational level). The problem to be solved is the mismatch between the content of legal education and training quality in legal schools with the modern requirements of the labour market and the challenges facing the modern democratic society, global trends in development and tasks of employees' professional activities in various fields, this is due to the insufficient level of theoretical knowledge and practical skills among a significant part of graduating students of law schools, as well as a lack of attention to the formation of a holistic world view among applicants for legal education with an understanding of the social mission, values and importance of legal profession to approve the rule of law in the modern democratic society. The abovementioned requires the updating of educational processes modernization issue in the direction of competency-oriented training formation and professional lawyer education in the light of his/her dialogue and discussion, and language-intensive professional activities. In particular, it is important to develop an approach to the professional training of a future lawyer, which involves the creation of a professional competence formation model of the lawyer, which is based on the organic unity of theoretical, practical, psychophysical training that will provide the professional socialization level engaging a wide range of scholars in the field of pedagogy and law.
    Keywords: high education,legal education,Kostruba
    Date: 2021–09–21
  15. By: International Monetary Fund
    Abstract: A recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic now underway in Georgia has benefited from a recent pickup in external demand and substantial fiscal support. Significant exchange rate depreciation, global commodity price increases and supply constraints have contributed to inflationary pressures and provided impetus for the authorities to start tightening monetary policy during 2021. Credit growth slowed during the pandemic but has since picked up again. Household and firm indebtedness is relatively high reflecting rapid credit growth in recent years. Banks face elevated credit risks as they carry high exposure to unhedged borrowers in foreign currency, some of whom are facing debt-servicing difficulties due to the pandemic.
    Date: 2021–09–21
  16. By: Tulun, Teoman Ertuğrul
    Abstract: The passage of US warships from the Turkish Straits to the Black Sea has been frequently discussed in the media and the public. Recent news regarding the additional military deployments made in Greece through the Alexandroupoli port has increased interest in this issue. According to announcement made by the US Defense Visual Information Distribution Service (DVIDS), more than 300 pieces of equipment, including 10 helicopters, were offloaded there on May 5, 2021. The Black Sea region has been brought to the top of the international agenda with the emergence of an extremely tense environment in the region. The fact that the Black Sea region was brought to the top of the international agenda with the emergence of an extremely tense environment in the region due to Russia’s annexation of Crimea and oft-repeated naval exercises by naval forces in the region remind us of the developments regarding the bombardment of some of the Turkish ports in the Black Sea by the Greek navy during the establishment period of the Republic of Turkey following the end of the First World War. In this context, Greek warships made extensive bombardments on Ereğli on the Black Sea coast on 6 June, İnebolu on 30 June, and Trabzon on 20 July in the summer of 1921.. As to Samsun, the bombardment took place in the summer of 1922.The point that draws attention in this historical event is that, at the time when the Greek navy bombarded Samsun, the destroyers belonging to the US navy were also present in the port of Samsun. According to the information provided in various publications regarding this bombardment, including academic ones, these US navy warships were Clamsen class destroyers of USS Sands (DD-243), USS, McFarland (DD-237), and USS Sturtevant (DD-240).
    Date: 2021–09–21

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