nep-cis New Economics Papers
on Confederation of Independent States
Issue of 2021‒09‒27
twenty-one papers chosen by
Alexander Harin
Modern University for the Humanities

  1. The Pandemic and Food Security? By Shagaida Natalia; Uzun Vasily; Ternovskiy Dmitry
  2. The pandemic social and economic lessons in the North Caucasus By Kazenin Konstantin; Starodubrovskaya Irina
  3. Transnational corporations’ participation in the Russian economy and foreign investments regulatory policies By Simachev Yuri; Kuzyk Mikhail; Fedyunina A.
  4. Health care challenges in Russia in 2020 By Avxentyev Nikolay; Nazarov Vladimir; Sisigina Natalya
  5. Platform companies: features of the business model and corporate governance By Polezhaeva Natalia
  6. Russia’s participation in the WTO’s trade disputes By Knobel Alexander; Baeva Marina
  7. Municipal and sub-federal debt market in 2020 By Shadrin Artem
  8. Russian banking sector in 2020 By Zubov Sergey
  9. Russian industrial sector in 2020: (based on surveys’ findings) By Tsukhlo Sergey
  10. Customs administration By Balandina Galina
  11. Science and innovations in Russia in 2020 By Dezhina Irina
  12. Challenges of international business taxation in the context of digitalization By Milogolov Nikolai; Berberov A.
  13. Universal Basic Income Programs: How Much Would Taxes Need to Rise? Evidence for Brazil, Chile, India, Russia, and South Africa By Ali Enami; Ugo Gentilini; Patricio Larroulet; Nora Lustig; Emma Monsalve; Siyu Quan; Jamele Rigolini
  14. Russian Foreign Trade in 2020 By Volovik Nadezhda
  15. Coronavirus crisis and company bankruptcies By Polezhaeva Natalia; Apevalova Elena
  16. Russia’s Transportation Industry By Borzykh Ksenia; Ponomarev Yuri
  17. Dynamic and structure of GDP and investments By Izryadnova Olga
  18. The state of health of the Russian population during the pandemic (according to sample surveys) By Leysan Anvarovna Davletshina; Natalia Alekseevna Sadovnikova; Alexander Valeryevich Bezrukov; Olga Guryevna Lebedinskaya
  19. The Coronavirus Pandemic and Economic Policy Trends By Mau Vladimir
  21. Smart cities and flagship stores: kitchen furniture By Aurelio Volpe; Donatella Cheri; Sara Banfi

  1. By: Shagaida Natalia (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Uzun Vasily (RANEPA); Ternovskiy Dmitry (RANEPA)
    Abstract: Early in 2020, Russia adopted the new Food Security Doctrine, which included the entire range of amendments as compared with the previous Doctrine-2010.
    Keywords: Russian economy, agricultural production
    JEL: Q13 Q14 Q15 Q16 Q17 Q18
    Date: 2021
  2. By: Kazenin Konstantin (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Starodubrovskaya Irina (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy)
    Abstract: The most pressing issues faced by the regions of the North Caucasus in 2020 were associated with the COVID-19 pandemic. In the North Caucasian Republics, particular aspects of the social organization and economic structure of these subjects of the Russian Federation had an impact on the course of the epidemic and its consequences for the population. To build a state policy aimed to support the economy of the North Caucasus after a pandemic, as well as to improve the system for protecting people from epidemics and other natural threats in this part of the country, consideration must be given to local factors that have complicated the way of coping with the spread of a new infection by Republics of the North Caucasus Federal Okrug (NCFO).
    Keywords: Russian economy, North Caucasus
    JEL: H11 H70 H77
    Date: 2021
  3. By: Simachev Yuri (RANEPA); Kuzyk Mikhail (RANEPA); Fedyunina A. (RANEPA)
    Abstract: Foreign companies’ declining interest in the Russian economy in the 2010s was accompanied by rather cautious activities of foreign investors which had already entered the Russian market. Sluggishness of foreign companies’ activities in Russia can be substantiated not only by slowdown of economic growth rates, but also a lack of progress in liberalization of foreign direct investments regulation. To rekindle investment activities in the Russian economy again, it is necessary to revise investment policies, switch over to the single nondiscriminatory policy in respect of foreign and Russian investors and combine the policy aimed at underpinning mid-sized projects with the one aimed at supporting investments in strategically important sectors, including fast-growing industries and short-term cycle sectors.
    Keywords: Russian economy, digital economy, corporate governance
    JEL: F3
    Date: 2021
  4. By: Avxentyev Nikolay (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Nazarov Vladimir (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Sisigina Natalya (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy)
    Abstract: The coronavirus pandemic became the largest challenge for the domestic public health system. For the first time in modern history, healthcare organizers had to temporarily suspend the implementation of a major part of state guarantees ensuring free medical care to population, as well as practically all programs of health care strategic development. The extraordinary measures made it possible to avoid acute shortages of medical capacity for patients with COVID-19, however, at the same time reduced the availability of medical care for most other diseases.
    Keywords: Russian economy, health care system
    JEL: I1 I15 I18
    Date: 2021
  5. By: Polezhaeva Natalia (RANEPA)
    Abstract: Digitalization of corporate activities in Russia and the world was of great importance, and until 2020 companies seeking to be competitive in hypercompetitive markets with rapidly changing customer needs, where possible, transferred their business to digital format in different volumes and speed. The rapid transmission of COVID-19 in 2020 gave an additional impetus to digitalize the economy in the wake of the forced social distancing and isolation. Technology companies and other companies that have been able to move their businesses online have stayed afloat, though often not without significant losses. Platform companies, thanks to their inherent speed and flexibility, have come to terms more easily than traditional corporations with the conditions of the pandemic. For example, Sber and Yandex, taking advantage of the current situation, expanded their digital ecosystems, but suffered some profit losses. Wildberries and Mail. ru on the contrary have significantly increased their incomes during the crisis. This viability of the platform business in extreme conditions makes it relevant to consider this mod in more detail.
    Keywords: Russian economy, digital economy, corporate governance
    JEL: M15 M16 O31
    Date: 2021
  6. By: Knobel Alexander (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Baeva Marina (RANEPA)
    Abstract: The WTO utilizes the trade dispute settlement mechanism in accordance with the Understanding on Rules and Procedures Governing the Settlement of Disputes (DSU). As a WTO member, Russia has the right to uphold its trade interests by means of this instrument.
    Keywords: Russian economy, foreign trade, WTO, trade disputes
    JEL: F10 F13 F19
    Date: 2021
  7. By: Shadrin Artem (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy)
    Abstract: The crisis phenomena in the global and Russian economy directly related to the introduction of quarantine measures in 2020, led to the deficit of the consolidated regional budget. At end-2020, the consolidated regional budget and the budgets of territorial state extra-budgetary funds ran a deficit of Rb667.4 bn, or 0.63% of GDP. To compare, in 2019 the consolidated regional budget and the budgets of territorial state extra-budgetary funds ran a surplus of Rb17.4 bn, or 0.02% of GDP.
    Keywords: Russian economy, regional and municipal finances, loan market, debt market
    JEL: H71 H72 H74 H76
    Date: 2021
  8. By: Zubov Sergey (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy)
    Abstract: As of end 2020, there were 406 credit institutions in Russia against 442 a year earlier. Over the year, the number of operating credit institutions decreased by 36 (in 2019 – by 42). At the end of the year, he number of banks with a universal license came to 248 (at the beginning of the year – 266), with a basic one - 118 (at the beginning of the year – 136). In 2020, the number of non-bank credit institutions did not change and amounted to 40 (Fig. 65). At the end of the year, there were 379 credit institutions subject to liquidation procedures.
    Keywords: Russian economy, banking sector, profit, capital, corporate loans, retail lending
    JEL: E41 E51 G28 G21 G24
    Date: 2021
  9. By: Tsukhlo Sergey (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy)
    Abstract: The slow slowdown in demand that commenced in late 2019 forced the industrial sector to hold back output growth in early 2020. Furthermore, in January, the expectations (plans) and forecasts of enterprises maintained a stable level of optimism. And the shortage of personnel forced businessmen to make every effort to retain workers and to plan to expand hiring.
    Keywords: Russian economy, industrial sector, industrial output
    JEL: C53 E37 L21 L52
    Date: 2021
  10. By: Balandina Galina (RANEPA)
    Abstract: The 2020 was the final year for implementing fundamental policy documents that determined the development vector of the customs authorities of the Russian Federation in the expiring decade, i.e. the RF FCS Comprehensive Development Program until 2020 and the Development Strategy of the Customs Service of the Russian Federation until 2020.
    Keywords: Russian economy, foreign trade, customs regulation
    JEL: F10 F13
    Date: 2021
  11. By: Dezhina Irina (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy)
    Abstract: Over the past year, the pandemic and the resulting crisis whipped up the decision-making process in science and technology policies. A number of top-level programs were revised, alongside some adjustment of budget allocations for R&D projects. Operational decisions were adopted across a number of areas, where discussions and coordinated planning had been underway for several years already (e.g., the transformation of scientific research funds, improvement of coordination and promotion of continuity between the development institutions operating in the science and technology sector, alterations in the current procedures for estimating the cost-effectiveness of budget-funded venture capital investment, etc.), in order to significantly change the situation in that sphere. Besides, some important normative legal changes were introduced, which addressed the science sector and promoted the creation of a favorable environment for developing and implementing technological innovations.
    Keywords: Russian economy, R&D, science, technology
    JEL: O31 O32 O3 I28 I2
    Date: 2021
  12. By: Milogolov Nikolai (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Berberov A. (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy)
    Abstract: The current system of international taxation does not result in a fair distribution of the tax base between countries in a digital environment violating the principle of taxation in accordance with the added value created in the particular country. In the absence of international consensus, countries reform their tax systems aimed to collect taxes in the digital economy unilaterally by imposing Digital Services Tax (DST). By their nature, being indirect, these taxes (DST) are collected on the turnover of foreign digital companies in the market country (the country of the source of income).
    Keywords: Russian economy, taxation, international business taxation
    JEL: H2 H24 H25
    Date: 2021
  13. By: Ali Enami; Ugo Gentilini; Patricio Larroulet; Nora Lustig; Emma Monsalve; Siyu Quan; Jamele Rigolini
    Abstract: Using microsimulations this paper analyzes the poverty and tax implications of replacing current transfers and subsidies by a budget-neutral (no change in the fiscal deficit) universal basic income program (UBI) in Brazil, Chile, India, Russia, and South Africa. We consider three UBI transfers with increasing levels of generosity and identify scenarios in which the poor are no worse off than in the baseline scenario of existing social transfers. We find that for poverty levels not to increase under a UBI reform, the level of spending must increase substantially with respect to the baseline. Accordingly, the required increase in tax burdens is high throughout. In our five countries and scenarios, the least increase in taxes required to avoid poverty to be higher than in the baseline is around 25% (Brazil and Chile). Even at this lower rate, political resistance and efficiency costs could limit the feasibility of a UBI reform.
    Keywords: Universal basic income, microsimulation, inequality, poverty, tax incidence
    JEL: H22 H31 H55 I32 D63
    Date: 2021–09
  14. By: Volovik Nadezhda (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy)
    Abstract: The pandemic has dealt a heavy blow to the world economy and global commodity markets. The COVID-19 containment measures have taken a toll on economic activity particularly in Q2 2020 when the majority of G20 countries demonstrated an unprecedented drop in real GDP. In relation to G20 as a whole, GDP decreased by a record 6.9% which markedly exceeded a decline by 1.6% recorded in Q1 2019 at the height of the financial crisis.2 China was the only G20 nation exhibiting in Q2 2020 economic growth by 11.5% which was due to the fact that China was the first to exit the crisis. All other G20 economies reported contraction of GDP by 11.8% on average in Q2 2020 when the pandemic fallout was more pronounced.
    Keywords: Russian economy, foreign trade, terms of trade, regional pattern
    JEL: F10 F13 F19
    Date: 2021
  15. By: Polezhaeva Natalia (RANEPA); Apevalova Elena (RANEPA)
    Abstract: The coronavirus crisis and the measures taken by national governments to combat the pandemic have led to an acute situation in the field of insolvency of companies. Assessments of the situation vary, and there are many reasons for this: the continuation of the pandemic, the introduction of lockdowns, and the adoption of measures to curb the wave of bankruptcies.
    Keywords: Russian economy, corporate governance
    JEL: I18 I19 G32 G33 G34
    Date: 2021
  16. By: Borzykh Ksenia (RANEPA); Ponomarev Yuri (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy)
    Abstract: The transportation industry is not only a key sector of the economy, but also its indispensable glue. The development of transport infrastructure is a major factor of economic growth and a key driver of exit from the economic crisis. In the past few years, the transportation industry demonstrated upturn dynamic both in terms of the development of infrastructure and the volumes of transportation. In 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic and the relevant restrictions aimed at fighting the spread thereof led to substantial changes in the supply and demand situation on numerous markets, not only affecting directly freight and passenger traffic, but also making a sizable portion of the population revise their views on the need and required parameters of the infrastructure (not only transport infrastructure, but also social-information and communication ones).
    Keywords: Russian economy, transportation industry, foreign trade, customs regulation
    JEL: L91 L92 L93 L99
    Date: 2021
  17. By: Izryadnova Olga (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy)
    Abstract: Internal epidemiological restrictions and external shocks have had a significant impact on economic growth in Russia. Unfavorable changes in the global market environment increased the impact of external factors on economic dynamic: starting from 2019, the scale of exports in terms of value and physical volume decreased; the decline in the contribution of net exports to GDP dynamics was partially offset by an increase in domestic demand on the back of the outstripping growth of manufacturing industry and the segment of paid services to the population. From the outset of the spread of coronavirus infection, there was a simultaneous reduction in demand and supply in the domestic market. The situation was complicated by a drop in demand and prices on the world market of hydrocarbons, which came amid a decline in the ruble exchange rate and an increase in the level of inflation. The negative effects of the uncertainty and potential risks of the pandemic affected the nature of business structures, consumer behavior, and led to changes in the structure of government spending, the corporate sector, households, and the demand for financial resources
    Keywords: Russian economy, fixed investment, GDP, inflation
    JEL: E20 E21 E22 E60
    Date: 2021
  18. By: Leysan Anvarovna Davletshina; Natalia Alekseevna Sadovnikova; Alexander Valeryevich Bezrukov; Olga Guryevna Lebedinskaya
    Abstract: The article analyzes the population's assessment of their own health and attitude to a healthy lifestyle in the context of distribution by age groups. Of particular interest is the presence of transformations taking into account the complex epidemiological situation, the increase in the incidence of coronavirus infection in the population (the peak of the incidence came during the period of selective observation in 2020). The article assesses the closeness of the relationship between the respondents ' belonging to a particular socio-demographic group and their social well-being during the period of self-isolation, quarantine or other restrictions imposed during the coronavirus pandemic in 2020. To solve this problem, the demographic and socio-economic characteristics of respondents are presented, the distribution of responses according to the survey results is estimated and the most significant factor characteristics are selected. The distributions of respondents ' responses are presented for the selected questions. To determine the closeness of the relationship between the respondents ' answers to the question and their gender or age distribution, the coefficients of mutual conjugacy and rank correlation coefficients were calculated and analyzed. The ultimate goal of the analytical component of this study is to determine the social well-being of the Russian population during the pandemic on the basis of sample survey data. As a result of the analysis of changes for the period 2019-2020, the assessment of the closeness of communication revealed the parameters that form differences (gender, wealth, territory of residence).
    Date: 2021–09
  19. By: Mau Vladimir (RANEPA)
    Abstract: A turbulent decade ended with the turbulent year of 2020. Starting with the global financial crisis of 2008-2009, the world economy and politics were in a state of unstable uncertainty, which ended with a full-scale explosion - the pandemic of a new coronavirus. The further socioeconomic development of the world as a whole and of individual countries (developed and leading developing) will be determined by how the lessons of the past 12 years and of 2020 in particular are studied, interpreted and assimilated. The events of 2020 have been compared with different crisis periods of the past, especially economic ones: the Great Depression of the 1930s2, the structural crisis of the 1970s, the financial and economic crisis of the 1970s, and the economic crisis of the 1980s. These comparisons are fair, especially if you compare their quantitative characteristics - the depth of the recession, the scale of unemployment, etc. But to understand the current situation and identify ways to overcome the crisis, we need an analysis that goes beyond historical analogies (important as they are) and beyond economic subjects and arguments.
    Keywords: Russian economy, COVID-19, economic growth, economic crisis, economic policy
    JEL: P16 P26 P48
    Date: 2021
  20. By: Catherine Locatelli (GAEL - Laboratoire d'Economie Appliquée de Grenoble - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Grenoble INP - Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes)
    Abstract: Depuis l'effondrement de l'Union soviétique, la question de la réforme de l'industrie gazière russe et de sa principale compagnie Gazprom est l'objet d'importants débats. Elle s'avère être un enjeu important pour les équilibres des marchés régionaux du gaz naturel en particulier pour l'Europe et de plus en plus pour l'Asie. Aujourd'hui se dessine une voie de réforme en accord avec les caractéristiques institutionnelles et politiques de l'économie russe. Ces principales caractéristiques sont le fruit d'une recombinaison entre des anciennes et des nouvelles formes institutionnelles. Ainsi, les processus de sédimentation/hybridation institutionnelles à l'œuvre dans le secteur gazier russe conduisent à une restructuration majeure du secteur et dessinent une voie de réforme originale.
    Keywords: Russie,Industrie du gaz naturel
    Date: 2021
  21. By: Aurelio Volpe (CSIL Centre for Industrial Studies); Donatella Cheri (CSIL Centre for Industrial Studies); Sara Banfi (CSIL Centre for Industrial Studies)
    Abstract: The GOAL of the Report 'Smart cities and flagship stores: kitchen furniture" is to provide: Kitchen companies with a tool to identify potential locations where to set their mono-brand stores, keeping into account potential synergies (for instance the presence of complementary brands) as well as an indicator of the cost of the area; The industry, in general, with an analysis on the medium-term trends affecting the main cities worldwide; The Report provides profiles of 85 cities worldwide with a selection of economic and demographic indicators (2013 and 2018), estimates of the potential market for kitchen furniture, in each city and the forecasts for the market development to the year 2023 (*). The study also offers an analysis of the geographical presence of a selected sample of 65 brands, each of which operates as a trend-setter in its own category. Each identified location is characterized by its type (store, multibrand store, shopping centre) and the cost of the area in which they are located. The aim is, thus, to provide a comprehensive view of the cities that a selection of international retailers entered. Finally, each profile presents a selection of kitchen furniture stores, in 82 out of the 85 selected cities. For each CITY PROFILE, the following data, indicators and forecasts are provided: Population and its rank within the sample, 2013, 2018 and 2023; Households and its rank within the sample, 2013, 2018 and 2023; Gross domestic product per capita and its rank within the sample, 2013, 2018 and 2023; Household’s consumption per capita and its rank within the sample, 2013, 2018 and 2023; Gross domestic product and its rank within the sample, 2013, 2018 and 2023; Household’s consumption and its rank within the sample, 2013, 2018 and 2023; Breakdown of households by the level of income, 2013, 2018 and 2023; Kitchen furniture demand and its growth rate, 2013, 2018 and 2023; Spatial analysis of the distribution of 50 brands within the city map; Spatial distribution of a selection of kitchen furniture stores. SELECTED CITIES group by geographic areas: Asia and Pacific: Melbourne, AU; Sydney, AU; Beijing, CN; Chengdu, CN; Chongqing, CN; Guangzhou, CN; Hangzhou, CN; Hong Kong, CN; Jinan, CN; Shanghai, CN; Tianjin, CN; Bangalore, IN; Mumbai, IN; Delhi, IN; Osaka, JP; Tokyo, JP; Seoul, KR; Kuala Lumpur-Klang Valley, MY; Auckland, NZ; Singapore, SG; Bangkok, TH; Ho Chi Minh City, VT. Eastern Europe outside the EU and Russia: Moscow, RU; Saint Petersburg, RU; Ankara, TR; Istanbul, TR; Kiev, UA. Europe: Vienna, AT; Brussels, BE; Prague, CZ; Copenhagen, DK; Helsinki, FI; Lyon, FR; Paris, FR; Berlin, DE; Frankfurt, DE; Munich, DE; Athens, GR; Budapest, HU; Dublin, IE; Milan, IT; Rome, IT; Amsterdam, NL; Oslo, NO; Warsaw, PO; Lisbon, PT; Bucharest, RO; Barcelona, ES; Madrid, ES; Stockholm, SE; Zurich, CH; London, UK; Manchester, UK. Middle East and Africa: Tel Aviv-Jaffa, IL; Doha, QA; Jedda, SA; Riyadh, SA; Cape Town, ZA; Abu Dhabi, AE; Dubai, AE. North America: Montreal, CA; Toronto, CA; Vancouver, CA; Mexico City, MX; Atlanta, US; Boston, US; Chicago, US; Dallas-Fort Worth, US; Detroit, US; Houston, US; Los Angeles, US; Miami, US; Minneapolis-Saint Paul, US; New York, US; Philadelphia, US; Phoenix, US; San Diego, US; San Francisco, US; Seattle, US; Washington, US. South America: Buenos Aires, AR; Rio de Janeiro, BR; Sao Paulo, BR; Santiago de Chile, CL; Bogota, CO; Lima, PE. Among the selected kitchen stores mentioned: 1000 Kuchnie, Al Meera Abu Dhabi, Architecs and Designers Bulding NY, Arredo 3 Mutfak, Binacci, Boffi Berlin, Bulthaup Berlin, Bulthaup Toronto, Bunnings, Cabinets and Beyond, Cabinets To Go, Casa Shopping, Chanintr Living, Da Vinci, Diacocina Madrid, Easy Home Beijing, Eggo, Eurokitchens, German Kitchen Center, Godrej Interio, Gruppo Cucine, HTH, International Market Center, Kaza Planejados, KIC ChongQing, Kitchen&Bath Shop, Kitchen Design Centre, Kitchen Innovation World Shanghai, Kitchen Works LA, Kuchnie Nolte, Kvik, La Cornue, Laura Ashley, Leicht Lisboa,Poggenpohl St Albans, Majestic Kitchens, Marquardt, Miacucina San Diego, Miami Design District, Modular Kitchen Delhi, Oppein Living, Panasonic Living Center, Poggenpohl Boston, Poliform Lyon, Porcelanosa Kitchen, Puustelli,ViA Hong Kong, Scavolini Detroit, Semel Kitchens, Shine Kitchen, Signature Interior, Stopino, theMart Chicago, TKI Amsterdam, Tulp Kitchens, Wuerfel Kuche Bangalore, Zahrani Kitchens. Among the kitchen brands mentioned: Al Meera Kitchens Arc Linea, Bertch, Bilotta, Boffi, Bulthaup, Crystal, Dada, De Wils, Dellanno, Dura Supreme, Elmwood, Eggersmann, Golden Home, Haecker, Hans Krug, Hanssem, Leicht, Lube, Marya, Mobalpa, Nobilia, Nolte, Oppein, Plain&Fancy, Poggenpohl, Poliform, Rutt, Scavolini, Siematic, Signature, Snaidero, Todeschini, Valcucine, Veneta Cucine, Wood Mode, WW Wood Products. Major Local markets monitored: Atlanta, Boston, Chicago, Dallas-Fort Worth, Detroit, Houston, Los Angeles, Miami, Minneapolis-Saint Paul, New York, Philadelphia, Phoenix, San Diego, San Francisco, Seattle, Washington. (*) Our economic and demographic indicator database is dated January 2020, therefore macroeconomic and sectorial estimations and forecasts were made before that date. The world has changed dramatically in the three months as the world has been put in a Great Lockdown. According to the IMF, 'the magnitude and speed of collapse in activity that has followed is unlike anything experienced in our lifetimes'. Up to the publication date of this report updates on forecasts up to 2023 havent be released.
    JEL: L11 L22 L68 L81
    Date: 2021–07

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