nep-cis New Economics Papers
on Confederation of Independent States
Issue of 2021‒07‒19
eleven papers chosen by

  1. Poverty in Russia: A Bird's-Eye View of Trends and Dynamics in the Past Quarter of Century By Abanokova, Kseniya; Dang, Hai-Anh H.
  2. Economic prospects of the Russian-Chinese partnership in the logistics projects of the Eurasian Economic Union and the Silk Road Economic Belt: a scientific literature review By Elena Rudakova; Alla Pavlova; Oleg Antonov; Kira Kuntsevich; Yue Yang
  3. Decrypting China's self-image as "great power" By Noesselt, Nele; Eckstein, Tanja; Priupolina, Elizaveta
  4. A Multicountry Macroeconometric Model for EAEU By Aizhan Bolatbayeva
  5. (Russian) Deterrence, we hardly know ye… By De Spiegeleire, Stephan; Batoh, Yar; Goriacheva, Daria; Voloskyi, Glib; Holynska, Khrystyna; Vozovych, Anastasiia; Baliuk, Bohdan; Pavlenko, Hryhorii; Sapolovych, Yevhen; Shchepina, Anastasiia
  6. Monthly Report No. 1/2021 By Dimitrios Exadaktylos; Mahdi Ghodsi; Julia Grübler; Tatiana Romanova; Roman Stöllinger
  7. The Growth-at-Risk (GaR) Framework: Implication For Ukraine By Anastasiya Ivanova; Alona Shmygel; Ihor Lubchuk
  8. Can China blunt the impact of new US economic sanctions? By Mary E. Lovely; Jeffrey J. Schott
  10. The school year 2020-21 in Estonia during the pandemic By MÄGI Eve
  11. Central, East and Southeast European Countries in the Global Value Chain Network By Amat Adarov

  1. By: Abanokova, Kseniya; Dang, Hai-Anh H.
    Abstract: Hardly any recent study exists that broadly reviews poverty trends over time for Russia. Analyzing the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Surveys between 1994 and 2019, we offer an updated review of poverty trends and dynamics for the country over the past quarter of century. We find that poverty has been steadily decreasing, with most of the poor having a transient rather than a chronic nature. The bottom 20 percent of the income distribution averages an annual growth rate of 5 percent, which compares favorably with that of 3.3 percent for the whole population. Income growth, particularly the shares that are attributed to labor incomes and public transfers, have important roles in reducing poverty. Our findings are relevant to poverty and social protection policies.
    Keywords: poverty,poverty dynamics,income growth,income mobility,RLMS,Russia
    JEL: C15 D31 I31 O10 O57
    Date: 2021
  2. By: Elena Rudakova; Alla Pavlova; Oleg Antonov; Kira Kuntsevich; Yue Yang
    Abstract: The authors of the article have reviewed the scientific literature on the development of the Russian-Chinese cooperation in the field of combining economic and logistics projects of the Eurasian Economic Union and the Silk Road Economic Belt. The opinions of not only Russian, but also Chinese experts on these projects are indicated, which provides the expansion of the vision of the concept of the New Silk Road in both countries.
    Date: 2021–07
  3. By: Noesselt, Nele; Eckstein, Tanja; Priupolina, Elizaveta
    Abstract: This paper explores the visual representation of the Chinese concept of daguo (literally: great power / major power) based on the 2017 CCTV documentary Daguo Waijiao 大国外交 (Major Power Diplomacy). Drawing on a combination of select streams of National Role Theory (NRT) and Social Identity Theory (SIT), the paper assesses the Chinese role claims and visualized role performance vis-à-vis two significant others, the Soviet Union / Russia and the US. The coding of select cases of the PRC's daguo role enactment sheds light on the conceptual, socio-psychological underpinnings of China's self-identity and global status reflections in the 21st century and hence offers some rare insight into the black box of the hermetically closed Chinese party-state.
    Keywords: China,daguo,national role theory,Russia,social identity theory,visualized narratives,US
    Date: 2021
  4. By: Aizhan Bolatbayeva (NAC Analytica, Nazarbayev University)
    Abstract: This paper introduces a macroeconometric multicountry model for the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU). The model consists of five single-country models of the union member states: Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Russia. The purpose of the research is to explain the structural relationship between the economies, evaluate the impact of internal and external shocks, and analyze the transmission mechanism of shocks across countries. The single-country models are linked to each other by the equations of bilateral trade and bilateral exchange rate. We find that the model fits actual data on main macroeconomic indicators of the countries in a dynamic ex-post simulation over 2004-2018. We also evaluate the effect of world trade and monetary policy shocks on the economies of the member states of the EAEU.
    Keywords: EAEU; Cowles Commission approach; Structural macroeconomic model; Simulation
    JEL: B22 E17 E27
    Date: 2020–12
  5. By: De Spiegeleire, Stephan; Batoh, Yar; Goriacheva, Daria; Voloskyi, Glib; Holynska, Khrystyna; Vozovych, Anastasiia; Baliuk, Bohdan; Pavlenko, Hryhorii; Sapolovych, Yevhen; Shchepina, Anastasiia
    Abstract: This paper provides the epistemic equivalent of an 'MRI' scan of the English and Russian literature on deterrence in an international security context. Using a variety of different recent datasets and -tools, the paper exposes a surprisingly high number of glaring weaknesses and holes. The paper’s first, more ‘technical’, section presents compelling evidence that the volume, velocity, collegiality and uptake of publicly available scientific insights into ‘security deterrence’ remain decidedly suboptimal – also compared to the other scientific disciplines that have examined human deterrence. The data on the scientific thoroughness of this field also paint a discomfortingly bleak picture, albeit less conclusively so. The paper’s second, more substantive section equally painfully highlights what it calls the field’s unbearable empirical lightness; conceptual confusion and cacophony (even within language domains); as well as multiple major (highly relevant) epistemic holes and other weaknesses. The paper concludes with some recommendations on how the epistemic community working on these issues as well as the academic and policy communities that fund much of this research can build on uniquely promising new developments in the access to (especially also textual) data to build and validate more granular and trustworthy datasets; in humans’ newfound ability to interact with machine algorithms to semantically parse texts to discover and validate ‘knowledge’ in unprecedented ways; but also – in a more mundane mode – to start incentivizing more organically collaborative ways of knowledge building.
    Date: 2021–05–31
  6. By: Dimitrios Exadaktylos; Mahdi Ghodsi (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Julia Grübler (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Tatiana Romanova; Roman Stöllinger (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw)
    Abstract: Chart of the month Waiting for the vaccine roll-out to speed up by Julia Grübler Opinion Corner Don’t expect an improvement in EU-Russia relations anytime soon by Tatiana Romanova Five factors diminish the likelihood of any improvement in EU-Russia relations in the near future the belief of both actors that time is on their side, deep mutual mistrust and zero-sum thinking, different interpretations of rule-based international order, weakening economic relations, and the geopoliticisation of internal politics. Yet, there are several areas of potential cooperation that could at least prevent further deterioration. ICT industries The eternal concern of EU industrial policy by Roman Stöllinger The EU’s concern that European industry is falling behind the US and emerging producers in Asia in the race for new, ground-breaking technologies dates back to the 1970s. In the field of information and communication technologies (ICT), these concerns are indeed well founded. Revived industrial policy efforts, such as the Important Projects of Common European Interest (IPCEI), are a step in the right direction, but isolated projects will not be sufficient to meet the ‘digital challenge’. Innovation and company performance in the digital sector by Dimitrios Exadaktylos and Mahdi Ghodsi Here we look at how innovation affects the performance of firms operating in the information and communications technology (ICT) sector. Our findings suggest that a firm’s own patents stimulate its labour productivity and improve its share of the global market. Moreover, multinational companies benefit from patents granted to their subsidiaries, whether or not the latter operate in the same sector. On the other hand, patents owned by competing firms hamper a firm’s performance; this highlights the competition effects. Monthly and quarterly statistics for Central, East and Southeast Europe
    Keywords: COVID-19 vaccination, rule-based international order, zero-sum thinking, energy transition, R&D, Arctic development, labour productivity, Important Projects of Common European Interest, market share, stock of patents, ‘patent boxes’
    Date: 2021–01
  7. By: Anastasiya Ivanova (National Bank of Ukraine); Alona Shmygel (National Bank of Ukraine); Ihor Lubchuk (National Bank of Ukraine)
    Abstract: Using data for the Ukrainian economy, we applied and adapted the growth-at-risk (GaR) framework to examine the association between financial conditions, credit and sectors' activity, and external conditions and the probability distribution of GDP growth in Ukraine. We applied CSA and PCA approaches to construct indices of these partitions. We further derived GDP growth distributions and explored their behavior under different scenarios. Results from the model with PCA indices suggest that the relationships between financial conditions as well as external conditions indices and economic activity are inverse regardless of quantile of GDP distribution. Moreover, we found that the financial conditions index has the largest effect on the GDP growth on the lower quantiles, which could generate significant downside risk to the economy.
    Keywords: Quantile regression; economic growth; GDP; principal component analysis; GDP growth distribution
    JEL: C31 C53 E17
    Date: 2021–07–01
  8. By: Mary E. Lovely (Peterson Institute for International Economics); Jeffrey J. Schott (Peterson Institute for International Economics)
    Abstract: Successive US administrations have embraced economic sanctions, especially financial sanctions, to punish bad actors in Iran, North Korea, Russia, and other hostile countries. Often, US officials leverage the economic pressure on their targets by forcing individuals and companies outside the United States to stop transacting with those on the US sanctions list or face severe penalties. European governments have instituted blocking regulations to prohibit compliance with such extraterritorial US sanctions against their nationals, but with limited success. Most companies forsake business in countries targeted by US sanctions rather than risk losing access to the US market. China is now adopting new blocking rules to nullify the effect of foreign sanctions or other measures “unjustifiably applied” against Chinese nationals. The new rules allow Chinese government officials to issue orders prohibiting Chinese companies from complying with foreign sanctions, essentially forcing them to choose between access to the Chinese market and access to the US market, with penalties possible in either direction. For decades weak foreign pushback allowed unilateral sanctions to remain a relatively powerful tool of US economic statecraft, but the Chinese blocking rules signal a major change to the status quo. The authors argue that multinational firms operating abroad are increasingly at risk of being caught firmly between US sanctions, including export controls, and Chinese countermeasures. These pressures add to growing US-China trade frictions already pushing the restructuring of global supply chains.
    Date: 2021–06
  9. By: Anatoliy Kostruba (Vasyl Stefanyk Precarpathian National University)
    Abstract: Legal norms in themselves do not give rise to legal relations, do not give rise to subjective rights and legal obligations of parties of relationship. In order for public relations, or rather the social ties of members of society to be successfully coordinated with each other in the appropriate legal framework, legal grounds for their emergence are necessary. The ground for the emergence of rights to objects are juridical facts. They mean the consequences of circumstances of reality (factual or legal), with which parties, due to formal legal certainty (contract, custom, court decision, legal norm) link emergence, change or termination of rights, individual competences or entire legal relationship to the relevant object. Actions are the acts of person characterizing the external expression of his/her will and consciousness as a result of purposeful activity in a social environment governed by law. The most common ground for emergence of the right to an object related to the action is a transaction, which means the action of a person aimed at establish-ing, changing and terminating civil rights and obligations. The most widespread ground for the emergence of rights to an object in legal relations of obligations is a contract. In the system of juridical facts, the contract is declared in such lawful actions as a transaction (bilaterally binding one). The contract as a juridical fact is the ground for the acquisition of property right, ensures the transformation of an absolute legal relationship into an obligation one with the subsequent establishment of a new absolute legal relationship. The fulfillment of contractual obligations on the transfer of property into ownership leads to the emergence of property rights for one party (purchase and sale, dona-tion) or for both parties (exchange). The ground for the emergence of rights to objects is also a legal act. It is under-stood as an action that entails a legal consequence, regardless of whether these actions were aimed at the consequences, which (by virtue of the rule of law) are called, or not. Acts cause legal consequences, regardless of whether the subject was aware or not aware of their legal significance, whether he/she wanted or did not want them to occur. The above grounds for the emergence of rights to an object are initially caused by the commission of legally significant actions that are not related to the onset of legal and actual consequences in the form of transfer of ownership to another person. The content of a legal act in this case is due to the need to ensure the safety of property of another when it is identified. In the future, the formation of such a configuration of juridical facts as the discovery of property of another, public noti-fication of incidentis and the expiration of the statutory period for ensuring the safety of this property entails the onset of legal consequences in the form of the emergence of a real right to an object. It should also be noted that a legal act leads to the creation of such real right object as a literary, artistic, musical or scientific work (Articles 437, 451, 458 of the Civil Code of Ukraine), an invention, a utility model, an industrial design (Ar-ticle 462 of the Civil Code of Ukraine), rationalization proposal (Article 484 of the Civil Code of Ukraine), commercial secret (Article 506 of the Civil Code of Ukraine) and other objects of intellectual property rights. The writing of a poem creates copyright regardless of whether the author was aware of the meaning of his/her actions or not. The motivation of the subject of intellectual property rights is aimed not at achieving the legal consequences stipu-lated by the norm in the form of material remuneration or the acquisition of other property rights, but at the realization of the individual's own creative abilities. Illegal actions as a juridical fact (tort) serve as the basis for the emergence of protective legal relations, the content of which is the implementation of the com-pensatory and restorative function of civil law. Tort is the basis for the emergence of rights to such object as a property claim for compensation for material and mor-al damage caused. This is an object of law of a special kind, implemented only in protective legal relations. Its peculiarity, in contrast to other objects of the material world, is that this object is not subject to free circulation in civil law transactions. This is due to the nature of protective legal relations, the essence of which boils down to the need to compensate for the damage caused directly to the victim by the causer, the inextricable connection of such compensation with the personality of the subjects of the tort legal relationship. The grounds for the emergence of rights to objects juridical facts are unique in their nature. Their uniqueness lies in their singularity, which is caused by the nature of human behavior in social conditions. Depending on the content of the social environment in which they arise, juridical facts are configured according to individual characteristics. Their diversity cannot be reflected normally or doctrinally. It is possible to single out only the general contours in which they find their external manifestation. Such contours are the strong willed nature of the subject of law, which allows us to combine juridical facts in the following algorithms: action event; event action; legal act act of law; legal act event legal act, etc.
    Keywords: Civil law scholarship,civil law,civil rights,Civil obligation,object of civil law
    Date: 2021–05–21
  10. By: MÄGI Eve
    Abstract: This report presents results from a qualitative interview-based study with teachers, students and school leaders (n=15) on the academic year 2020-21 in Estonia, which can be described as the first full year with Covid-19. The study reveals how school staff members were bridging previous experiences from 2019-20 in preparations for 2020-21 resulting in a variety of education modes, including contact learning, hybrid learning and remote education. While the academic year 2020-21 can be characterized by constant reorganizing, creative tailor-made solutions and ad hoc planning, key findings in the study include instructional practices developed, assessment and feedback, well-being and vulnerability, data protection and privacy. Potential improvements and future directions for the next academic year 2021-22 and for long perspective planning in education in Estonia are provided.
    Keywords: Covid-19 education, primary education, secondary education, special education, inclusive education, digital education, hybrid education
    Date: 2021–06
  11. By: Amat Adarov (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw)
    Abstract: The policy brief examines the position of Central, East and Southeast European (CESEE) countries in the global value chain (GVC) network. Effective integration in global value chains has been recognised as one of the important ingredients of economic development. The analysis uses the multi-country input-output database recently developed by the Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, covering the period of 2005-2018, to construct and examine the topology of the GVC network focusing on the CESEE region. We show that the CESEE segment of the GVC network has a core-periphery structure with several sectoral clusters forming the closely intertwined core centred around Russia's mining, petroleum and metals industries, as well as the value-added linkages formed by Central European countries with Germany's automotive sector. While these specialisation patterns have intensified over time, the advanced CESEE countries have also managed to diversify their participation in regional value chains. At the same time, a large part of the CESEE region, particularly, the Western Balkans, remains only marginally integrated in the GVC network, calling for additional policy efforts to boost their competitiveness and unlock the potential for a more intensive participation in cross-border production sharing in the region.
    Keywords: global value chains; CESEE countries; network analysis
    JEL: F10 F14 F15
    Date: 2021–07

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