nep-cis New Economics Papers
on Confederation of Independent States
Issue of 2021‒06‒21
ten papers chosen by

  1. The Russian practice of applying cluster approach in regional development By Victor Grebenik; Yuri Tarasenko; Dmitry Zerkin; Mattia Masolletti
  2. Human capital transfer of German-speaking migrants in Eastern Europe, 1780s-1820s By Blum, Matthias; Krauss, Karl-Peter; Myeshkov, Dmytro
  3. Russian Economic Growth during the Eighteenth Century By Stephen Broadberry; Elena Korchmina
  4. Social Media and Xenophobia: Evidence from Russia By Bursztyn, Leonardo; Egorov, Georgy; Enikolopov, Ruben; Petrova, Maria
  5. Modeling and forecasting production indices using artificial neural networks, taking into account intersectoral relationships and comparing the predictive qualities of various architectures By Kaukin Andrey; Kosarev Vladimir
  6. Universal Basic Income Programs: How Much Would Taxes Need to Rise? Evidence for Brazil, Chile, India, Russia, and South Africa By Ali Enami; Ugo Gentilini; Patricio Larroulet; Nora Lustig; Emma Monsalve; Siyu Quan; Jamele Rigolini
  8. Prospects and Challenges for Development of Small Business Forms in Agriculture of Ukraine By Zaburanna, Lesia V.; Lutska, Tetiana V.; Tkachuk, Vadym A.
  9. How social assistance affects subjective Well-being: Lessons from Kyrgyzstan By Gassmann, Franziska; Martorano, Bruno; Waidler, Jennifer
  10. A Bibliography Search on International Migration and Remittances Literature during the period of 1971-2020: A Case of Bangladesh By Khan, Adnan

  1. By: Victor Grebenik; Yuri Tarasenko; Dmitry Zerkin; Mattia Masolletti
    Abstract: The article considers the practice of applying the cluster approach in Russia as a tool for overcoming economic inequality between Russian regions. The authors of the study analyze the legal framework of cluster policy in Russia, noting that its successful implementation requires a little more time than originally planned. Special attention is paid to the experience of benchmarking.
    Date: 2021–06
  2. By: Blum, Matthias; Krauss, Karl-Peter; Myeshkov, Dmytro
    Abstract: Prior to the Age of Mass Migration, Germans left central Europe to settle primarily in modernday Hungary, Serbia, Romania, Ukraine and Russia. Despite the harsh conditions that the first generation of settlers had to endure, their descendants often fared better, not worse, compared to native population groups. This study offers a possible explanation for this surprising outcome. We use data on approximately 11,500 individuals to estimate and compare basic numeracy scores of German settlers and other populations groups in target regions. We find that German settlers generally had superior basic numeracy levels, suggesting that these settlers must have contributed positively to the human capital endowment in their target regions. The numeracy of Germans was somewhat higher than the numeracy of Hungarians and substantially higher than the numeracy of Russians, Ukrainians and Serbs. We do not find noteworthy differences in terms of numeracy between German emigrants and the population they left behind, suggesting the absence of substantial migrant selection.
    Keywords: Migration,Economic History,Germany,Hungary,Russian Empire,Ukraine,Eastern Europe
    JEL: N13 N23
    Date: 2021
  3. By: Stephen Broadberry; Elena Korchmina
    Abstract: We provide estimates of economic growth at decadal frequency for Russia during the eighteenth century. Although GDP per head increased between the 1690s and 1760s, this was followed by a period of negative growth between the 1760s and 1800s, leaving GDP per capita just 17 per cent higher at the end of the century than at its beginning. Although Russia’s strong growth in large-scale industry during the eighteenth century has received much attention, this was starting from a very low base. Peter the Great’s modernisation drive thus had only a small effect on the economy as a whole, which remained dominated by agriculture and small-scale industry.
    Date: 2021–05–03
  4. By: Bursztyn, Leonardo; Egorov, Georgy; Enikolopov, Ruben; Petrova, Maria
    Abstract: We study the causal effect of social media on ethnic hate crimes and xenophobic attitudes in Rus- sia and the mechanisms underlying this effect, using quasi-exogenous variation in social media penetration across cities. Higher penetration of social media led to more hate crimes in cities with a high pre-existing level of nationalist sentiment. Consistent with a mechanism of coordination of crimes, the effects are stronger for crimes with multiple perpetrators. Using a national survey experiment, we also find evidence of a mechanism of persuasion: social media led individuals (especially young, male, and less-educated ones) to hold more xenophobic attitudes.
    Keywords: Hate crime; Russia; social media; Xenophobia
    JEL: D7 H0 J15
    Date: 2020–06
  5. By: Kaukin Andrey (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Kosarev Vladimir (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration)
    Abstract: This paper analyzes the possibilities of using convolutional and recurrent neural networks to predict the indices of industrial production of the Russian economy. Since the indices are asymmetric in periods of growth and decline, it was hypothesized that nonlinear methods will improve the quality of the forecast relative to linear ones.
    Keywords: convolutional neural networks, recurrent neural networks
    Date: 2021–01
  6. By: Ali Enami (University of Akron); Ugo Gentilini (World Bank); Patricio Larroulet (Tulane University); Nora Lustig (Tulane University); Emma Monsalve (World Bank); Siyu Quan (Tulane University); Jamele Rigolini (World Bank)
    Abstract: Using microsimulations this paper analyzes the poverty and tax implications of replacing current transfers and subsidies by a budget-neutral (no change in the fiscal deficit) universal basic income program (UBI) in Brazil, Chile, India, Russia, and South Africa. We consider three UBI transfers with increasing levels of generosity and identify scenarios in which the poor are no worse off than in the baseline scenario of existing social transfers. We find that for poverty levels not to increase under a UBI reform, the level of spending must increase substantially with respect to the baseline. Accordingly, the required increase in tax burdens is high throughout. In our five countries and scenarios, the least increase in taxes required to avoid poverty to be higher than in the baseline is around 25% (Brazil and Chile). Even at this lower rate, political resistance and efficiency costscould limit the feasibility of a UBI reform.
    Keywords: Universal basic income, microsimulation, inequality, poverty, tax incidence
    JEL: H22 H31 H55 I32 D63
    Date: 2021–06
  7. By: Seredkina Ekaterina (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Makarentseva Alla (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration)
    Abstract: The paper examines how the epidemiological crisis of 2020 can affect the reproductive intentions and actual reproductive behavior of the Russian population. The authors refer to the estimates of the global expert community in search of fertility forecasts, and also use their own unique database of the survey "Person, Family, Society"
    Keywords: reproductive behavior, demographics of the covid 19 epidemic
    Date: 2021–01
  8. By: Zaburanna, Lesia V.; Lutska, Tetiana V.; Tkachuk, Vadym A.
    Abstract: The article summarizes the practice of creation and functioning of small business forms in agriculture of Ukraine, assesses their role and capabilities at the present stage and in the future, identifies priority, desirable directions for further development of society and mechanisms for their provision. The necessity of implementing a consistent policy of entrepreneurial activity expansion in the rural area is substantiated, in the first place by family farming, which is capable to ensure the maximum employment rate of rural population. Due to the above-mentioned processes, agroholdings have narrowed down the ability of the rural population to conduct agricultural entrepreneurial activity. It has also been proved that in order to increase the efficiency of agricultural production, the profitability of rural households from the agricultural products production and sale, employment of rural population and the development of the agrarian market’s infrastructure, it is necessary to intensify the creation of agricultural servicing cooperatives, especially in sectors where the production of small business forms prevails. It was found that it is extremely important to introduce a permanent state of financial and other support for the development of agricultural servicing cooperatives and small forms of farming in the rural area, focusing on supporting the latter through cooperatives in which they participate
    Keywords: Agricultural and Food Policy, Community/Rural/Urban Development
    Date: 2020
  9. By: Gassmann, Franziska (UNU-MERIT, Maastricht University); Martorano, Bruno (UNU-MERIT, Maastricht University); Waidler, Jennifer (UNU-MERIT, and UNICEF Office of Research - Innocenti)
    Abstract: This paper investigates the effects of social assistance on subjective well-being looking at the case of Kyrgyzstan. For this purpose, we exploit recent changes in the design of social assistance and apply a difference in difference (DiD) method combined with an inverse probability weighting (IPW) technique. In contrast to the existing literature, we find that the receipt of social assistance benefits is associated with lower levels of subjective well-being. Our findings also reveal that participation in social assistance leads to some reduction in satisfaction regarding recipients' own economic conditions. Moreover, we find that the negative effects on subjective well-being disappear for the oldest generations, which experienced the dissolution of the Soviet Union. By contrast, the effect is negative for the youth, who grew up in a new society where needing help is ultimately the responsibility of the individual citizen. For individuals with high trust in political institutions, the negative effect of state intervention does not hold, while it persists in case of low trust in political institutions.
    Keywords: subjective well-being, social assistance, institutional trust, Soviet Union, Kyrgyz Republic
    JEL: I31 I38 P36
    Date: 2021–03–18
  10. By: Khan, Adnan
    Abstract: With nearly 8 million of its 160 million residents living abroad, Bangladesh has one of the world’s largest emigrant populations, ranking only behind India, Mexico, China, Russia, and Syria, according to estimates from the United Nations’ Population Division. The increasing outward orientation of Bangladeshis after national independence in 1971 as well as the 1973 oil boom and thus an increasing need for cheap labor in the Middle East then led to a rapid growth of international labor migration from Bangladesh. In 1976, only 6,000 Bangladeshis left to work abroad. Since then, the number of both temporary expatriate workers and permanent out-migrants has increased dramatically. The main purpose of this paper is to highlight how much progress has been made in the field of international migration and remittances research on the fiftieth anniversary of Bangladesh's independence. Thus, this paper delve out all segments of international migration from Bangladesh to worldwide and remittances inflows vice versa.
    Keywords: migration, expatriate, diaspora, temporary, workers, labour, remittances, literature.
    JEL: J6 J60 J61 J62
    Date: 2020

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