nep-cis New Economics Papers
on Confederation of Independent States
Issue of 2021‒05‒10
two papers chosen by

  1. Planning for Sustainability: An Emerging Blue Economy in Russia's Coastal Arctic? By Gao Tianming; Nikolai Bobylev; Sébastien Gadal; Maria Lagutina; Alexander Sergunin; Vasilii Erokhin
  2. Model trimestrial de Prognoză a PIB-ului Republicii Moldova By TOACĂ, Zinovia; Vîntu, Denis

  1. By: Gao Tianming (HRBEU - Harbin Engineering University); Nikolai Bobylev (SPBU - Saint Petersburg University); Sébastien Gadal (North-Eastern Federal University, ESPACE - Études des Structures, des Processus d’Adaptation et des Changements de l’Espace - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UNS - Université Nice Sophia Antipolis (... - 2019) - COMUE UCA - COMUE Université Côte d'Azur (2015 - 2019) - AU - Avignon Université - UCA - Université Côte d'Azur); Maria Lagutina (SPBU - Saint Petersburg State University); Alexander Sergunin (SPBU - Saint Petersburg State University); Vasilii Erokhin (MGIMO - Moscow State Institute of International Relations, HRBEU - Harbin Engineering University, KWU - Key West University)
    Abstract: The main research objective of this study is to examine how coastal urban communities in the Arctic Zone of the Russian Federation (AZRF) organize the sustainable development (and emerging blue economy) strategy planning process. Along with this general objective, this study focuses on four more specific questions: First, to examine whether the sustainable development and blue economy concepts are integrated into the urban development strategies and whether they are a real priority for the northern coastal communities? Second, to figure out which local government and civil society institutions are involved in the policy planning process and whether this sphere of local politics is transparent and open to public discussions? Third, to find out which specific aspects of the sustainable development and coastal blue economy concepts are given priority in the municipal development strategies? Finally, to discuss whether the AZRF coastal sustainable development/blue economy strategies aim to solve short-term/most pressing problems or they suggest long-term policies built on sustainability principles and are oriented to solve fundamental socioeconomic and ecological problems of the AZRF coastal communities? The hypothesis of this study is that a properly designed strategy planning system would be helpful for both familiarizing northern municipalities with the blue economy concept and its effective implementation. This research is based on several empirical cases, including major Arctic coastal urban centers/ports-Anadyr, Arkhangelsk, Dudinka, Murmansk, Naryan-Mar, Pevek, Sabetta, and Severodvinsk.
    Keywords: Sustainable development strategies,Regional and urban planning,Coastal areas and municipalities,Blue economy,Arctic Zone of the Russian Federation,Urban Development,Sustainability,Economic,Ports,Arctic,Russia
    Date: 2021–04–28
  2. By: TOACĂ, Zinovia; Vîntu, Denis
    Abstract: The purpose of the present paper is to describe a model of quarterly GDP forecast, categories of uses, in accordance with the development priorities of the Republic of Moldova in the medium term. The achievement of the main purpose requires to draw up the tasks, among which: - Conceptual approach of time series, with reference to the use of ARIMA technique for estimating the time series; - Economic analysis of the categories of uses, subcomponents of GDP; - Studying time series, using method of indices, where the following indicators were used as: growth rate, structure, degree of influence and influence; - Forecast of categories of uses, for the same reference period 2019-2020 Actuality of the research - Use of the ARIMA technique; - Using econometric package Eviews for estimating and developing the macroeconometric model. Scientific and methodological approaches described in this paper will serve as scientific support for the Ministry of Economy in the process of developing their own economic scenarios and forecasting options. Research methods: identifying trends in economic development; diagnostic analysis; economic forecasts scientifically substantiated, ARIMA methods, regression analysis of time series.
    Keywords: Forecast, ARIMA, general domestic product, Student test, Jarque-Bera, Fischer.
    JEL: C10 C22 E27
    Date: 2019–10–10

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