nep-cis New Economics Papers
on Confederation of Independent States
Issue of 2021‒04‒26
ten papers chosen by

  1. Economie russe : Thérapie de choc ou thérapies douces By Jacques Fontanel
  2. Candidate Filtering: The Strategic Use of Electoral Fraud in Russia By David Szakonyi
  3. Impact of Grain Export on the Russian Empire’s Industrial Development in the Late 19th and Early 20th Centuries By Rozinskaya Natalia; Arkhina Anna
  4. Gender Preferences in Central and Eastern Europe as Reflected in Partnership and Fertility Outcomes By Myck, Michal; Oczkowska, Monika; Wowczko, Izabela
  5. Построение большой байесовской авторегрессионной модели для Казахстана // Building a Large Bayesian Vector Autoregression Model for Kazakhstan By Константин Орлов // Konstantin Orlov
  7. Who cares about sanctions? Observations from annual reports of European firms By Davydov, Denis; Sihvonen, Jukka; Solanko, Laura
  8. Система Galymzhan: online-оценка потребительской инфляции в Казахстане // Galymzhan System: Online Assessment of Consumer Inflation in Kazakhstan By Тулеуов Олжас // Tuleuov Olzhas; Ержан Ислам // Yerzhan Islam; Сейдахметов Ансар // Seidakhmetov Ansar
  9. Regional convergence in CEE before and after the Global Financial Crisis By Smirnykh, Larisa; Wörgötter, Andreas
  10. Deindustrialization and the Postsocialist Mortality Crisis By Scheiring, Gábor; Azarova, Aytalina; Irdam, Darja; Doniec, Katarzyna Julia; McKee, Martin; Stuckler, David; King, Lawrence

  1. By: Jacques Fontanel (CESICE - Centre d'études sur la sécurité internationale et les coopérations européennes - UPMF - Université Pierre Mendès France - Grenoble 2 - IEPG - Sciences Po Grenoble - Institut d'études politiques de Grenoble)
    Abstract: The shock therapy initiated by Yegor Gaidar, at the expense of a policy known as "gradualism", profoundly changed the Soviet system. The aim was to reorganise Russia's management bodies and state power, introduce a national Russian currency, restructure the general price level and embark on a process of privatisation of state-owned enterprises by means of vouchers, distinguishing between firms that had to be privatised and those that were not. The price to be paid to democracy was considered high, but mandatory. It was also a question of combating an unprecedented economic crisis and establishing the political and economic foundations of a new capitalism. Criticism of this strategy focused on the excessive violence of this policy, which was also considered to be foreign-inspired (especially by international organisations) and dangerous for international peace. A 'russian-style' capitalism was then put in place, with the additional difficulty of simultaneously carrying out the economic transition and the accelerated conversion of the military-industrial complex.
    Abstract: Article traduit en russe Résumé : La thérapie de choc engagée par Yegor Gaidar, au détriment d'une politique dite du « gradualisme » a profondément modifié le système soviétique. Il s'agissait de réorganiser les organes de gestion et du pouvoir d'Etat de la Russie, d'introduire une monnaie nationale russe, de restructurer le niveau général des prix et de s'engager dans un processus de privatisation des entreprises publiques, au moyen de vouchers, en distinguant les firmes à privatiser obligatoirement de celles qui en étaient interdites. Le prix à payer à la démocratie était jugé élevé, mais obligatoire. Il s'agissait en outre de lutter contre une crise économique sans précédent et de mettre en place les bases politiques et économiques d'un nouveau capitalisme. Les critiques formulées à l'encontre de cette stratégie portaient sur la violence excessive de cette politique jugée par ailleurs inspirée par l'étranger (et notamment par les organisations internationales) et dangereuse pour la paix internationale. Un capitalisme « à la russe » était alors mis en place, avec la difficulté supplémentaire d'opérer simultanément à la transition économique et à la conversion accélérée du complexe militaro-industriel.
    Date: 2021–04–12
  2. By: David Szakonyi (George Washington University)
    Abstract: Incumbents have many tools to tip elections in their favor, yet we know little about how they choose between strategies. By comparing various tactics, this paper argues that electoral malpractice centered on manipulating institutions offers the greatest effectiveness while shielding incumbents from public anger and criminal prosecution. To demonstrate this, I focus on one widespread institutional tactic: preventing candidates from accessing the ballot. First, in survey experiments, Russian voters respond less negatively to institutional manipulations, such as rejecting candidates, than to blatant fraud, such as ballot-box stuffing. Next, using evidence from 25,935 Russian mayoral races, I show that lower societal and implementation costs enable incumbents to strategically reject candidacies from credible challengers and then reduce their electoral vulnerability. In all, the technology behind specific manipulations helps determine when and how incumbents violate electoral integrity.
    Keywords: electoral fraud, authoritarianism, Russia, public opinion
    JEL: D7 H40
    Date: 2020
  3. By: Rozinskaya Natalia (Department of Economics, Lomonosov Moscow State University); Arkhina Anna (Utrecht University)
    Abstract: This paper deals with the problem of the grain export impact on Russia’s industrial development in the late 19th and early 20th century. Authors estimated VECM models to analyze how grain export affected industrial growth. It was concluded that grain export had a long-term negative impact on industry growth in Russia. There are four possible channels of influence: through consumption, through savings, through the distribution of labor and through investment. The authors considered the investment-related channel of influence and concluded that grain export had a negative long-term impact on industrial capital. Their argument stems from the fact that at the end of the 19th and beginning of the 20th century, grain exporters were predominantly small, export profits were widely dispersed among intermediaries and traders preferred to invest not in Russia but elsewhere.
    Keywords: grain export, foreign trade, industrial development, Russia Empire, VECM
    JEL: N5 N13
    Date: 2021–04
  4. By: Myck, Michal (Centre for Economic Analysis, CenEA); Oczkowska, Monika (Centre for Economic Analysis, CenEA); Wowczko, Izabela (Centre for Economic Analysis, CenEA)
    Abstract: The decisions of parents following the birth of their first child concerning subsequent fertility, and the stability of their relationship can be used as a reflection of broader gender preferences. We study these decisions to identify gender preferences in six Central and Eastern European countries, which vary with respect to their current political and economic conditions, but share a common experience of past communist rule. Using subsamples of census data collected in the IPUMS-International inventory around 2000 and 2010, we examine the effect of the gender of the first-born child(ren) on the fertility and relationship stability of their parents. Only in the case of Romania do our results consistently point towards boy preferences, while in Russia boy preferences can be detected in families with two or more children. Importantly, in four out of six countries (Belarus, Poland, Russia and Ukraine) parents are more likely to have a second child if the first-born was a boy, indicating girl preferences. These preferences could be interpreted as a reflection of concern regarding future care support for parents.
    Keywords: gender preferences, fertility, family structure, transition countries
    JEL: J13 J16
    Date: 2021–04
  5. By: Константин Орлов // Konstantin Orlov (National Bank of Kazakhstan)
    Abstract: В целях прогнозирования основных макропоказателей мировыми центральными банками, а также различными международными организациями, в последние годы активно развивался и применялся инструментарий байесовских векторных авторегрессионных моделей. В настоящей работе была проведена оценка их эффективности в прогнозировании экономической активности, инфляции, обменного курса и ставки TONIA в Казахстане для различных горизонтов до 1 года в сравнении с более простыми моделями и показана целесообразность применения данных моделей. Поиск оптимальных параметров оцениваемой BVAR-модели проходил на основе точности прогнозов на тестовой выборке. // With a view to forecast the key macro indicators, in the recent years, the central banks worldwide as well as different international organizations have been actively developing and using the tools of the Bayesian vector autoregression models. This Paper presents the conducted assessment of their effectiveness in forecasting the economic activity, inflation, exchange rate and TONIA rate in Kazakhstan for various horizons up to one year in comparison with simpler models; it also shows the practicability of using such models. The search for optimum parameters of the estimated BVAR-model was conducted on the basis of forecast accuracy on the test sample.
    Keywords: прогнозы макроэкономических показателей, байесовские векторные авторегрессионные модели, байесовские методы, forecasts of macroeconomic indicators, Bayesian vector autoregression models, Bayesian methods
    JEL: C32 C52 C53 C82 E17
    Date: 2021
  6. By: Denis Shibitov (Bank of Russia, Russian Federation); Mariam Mamedli (Bank of Russia, Russian Federation)
    Abstract: We show, how the forecasting performance of models varies, when certain inaccuracies in the pseudo real-time experiment take place. We consider the case of Russian CPI forecasting and estimate several models on not seasonally adjusted data vintages. Particular attention is paid to the availability of the variables at the moment of forecast: we take into account the release timing of the series and the corresponding release delays, in order to reconstruct the forecasting in real-time. In the series of experiments, we quantify how each of these issues affect the out-of-sample error. We illustrate, that the neglect of the release timing generally lowers the errors. The same is true for the use of seasonally adjusted data. The impact of the data vintages depends on the model and forecasting period. The overall effect of all three inaccuracies varies from 8% to 17% depending on the forecasting horizon. This means, that the actual forecasting error can be significantly underestimated, when inaccurate pseudo real-time experiment is run. We underline the need to take these aspects into account, when the real-time forecasting is considered.
    Keywords: inflation, pseudo real-time forecasting, data vintages, machine learning, neural networks.
    JEL: C14 C45 C51 C53
    Date: 2021–04
  7. By: Davydov, Denis; Sihvonen, Jukka; Solanko, Laura
    Abstract: This paper uses textual analysis to examine how European corporations assess sanctions in their annual reports. Using observations from a panel of almost 11,500 corporate annual reports from 2014–2017, we document significant cross-country variation in how firms perceive Russia-related sanctions. Even after controlling for firm-level characteristics, cross-country differences remain for sentiments about sanctions and contexts in which sanctions are mentioned. We also examine the role of macroeconomic linkages in explaining these differences. We show that the Russia’s inward and outward FDI stocks and high levels of imports and exports with Russia only partially explain the cross-country variation, leaving a nontrivial share of variation unexplained.
    JEL: D22 F51
    Date: 2021–04–20
  8. By: Тулеуов Олжас // Tuleuov Olzhas (National Bank of Kazakhstan); Ержан Ислам // Yerzhan Islam (National Bank of Kazakhstan); Сейдахметов Ансар // Seidakhmetov Ansar (National Bank of Kazakhstan)
    Abstract: В данной работе описаны методология и результаты построения высокочастотного прокси-показателя инфляции Казахстана в Национальном Банке посредством использования технологии веб-скрепинга, подразумевающей автоматическое получение данных путем их извлечения c веб-страниц, реализованным с помощью программного алгоритма. // This Paper describes the methodology and outcomes of designing a high-frequency inflation proxy in Kazakhstan at the National Bank by using the web scrapping technology, which implies the automated data generation by deriving the data from web pages implemented with a help of a software algorithm.
    Keywords: inflation, web scrapping, Galymzhan, online store, prices, big data, CPI, parsing, consumer goods, инфляция, веб-скрепинг, Galymzhan, онлайн магазин, цены, big data, ИПЦ, парсинг, потребительские товары
    JEL: E31 E37 E39
    Date: 2021
  9. By: Smirnykh, Larisa; Wörgötter, Andreas
    Abstract: In this study we analyze the convergence of GDP per capita from 2000 to2013 (current prices and euro exchange rates) for eight countries (Czech Republic, Slovakia, Slovenia, Hungary, Poland, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania) of the European Union (CEE8). Some convergence indicators are also calculated for the CEE8 as a whole. The main purpose of this study is to shed some light on the impact of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) on regional convergence in advanced emerging countries, like the CEE8. The main result of random effects panel regressions for unconditional beta-convergence is that significant convergence is found for the whole period from 2000-2013, but not for sub-periods on either end of the sample, except for Hungary and Poland. This means, that convergence in most CEECs is only significant if the GFC is included in the estimation period. The role of capital regions for the convergence process is an item for future research.
    Date: 2021
  10. By: Scheiring, Gábor (Bocconi University); Azarova, Aytalina; Irdam, Darja; Doniec, Katarzyna Julia (University of Cambridge); McKee, Martin; Stuckler, David; King, Lawrence
    Abstract: An unprecedented mortality crisis struck Eastern Europe during the transition from socialism to capitalism. Working-class men without a college degree suffered the most. Some argue that economic dislocation caused stress and despair, leading to adverse health behavior and ill health (dislocation-despair approach). Others suggest that hazardous drinking inherited as part of a dysfunctional working-class culture and populist alcohol policy were the key determinants (supply-culture approach). We enter this debate by performing the first quantitative analysis of the association between economic dislocation in the form of industrial employment decline and mortality in postsocialist Eastern Europe. We rely on a novel multilevel dataset, fitting survival and panel models covering 52 towns and 42,800 people in 1989-1995 in Hungary and 514 medium-sized towns in the European part of Russia. The results show that deindustrialization was significantly associated with male mortality in both countries directly and indirectly mediated by adverse health behavior as a dysfunctional coping strategy. Both countries experienced severe deindustrialization, but social and economic policies seem to have offset Hungary’s more immense industrial employment loss. The policy implication is that social and economic policies addressing the underlying causes of stress and despair can improve health.
    Date: 2021–04–10

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