nep-cis New Economics Papers
on Confederation of Independent States
Issue of 2021‒04‒12
twelve papers chosen by

  1. Эффективное применение дистанционного образования: преимущества и ограничения By Jacques Fontanel; Natalia Burova; Veronika Shubaeva
  2. Five Years of Inflation Targeting Without Economic Growth: What Should Be Changed The Case of Russia By Gasanov, Oscar
  3. Влияние шоков мировой деловой активности, предложения нефти и спекулятивных нефтяных шоков на экономику РФ By Lomonosov, Daniil; Polbin, Andrey; Fokin, Nikita
  4. Monthly Report No. 10/2020 By Amat Adarov; Ruslan Grinberg; Julia Grübler; Robert Stehrer
  5. Empirical estimation of REER trend for Ukraine By Artem Vdovychenko; ;
  6. Labor Informality and Credit Market Accessibility By Alina Malkova; Klara Sabirianova Peter; Jan Svejnar
  7. FRM Financial Risk Meter for Emerging Markets By Souhir Ben Amor; Michael Althof; Wolfgang Karl H\"ardle
  8. Resilience against the Pandemic: the Impact of COVID-19 on Migration and Household Welfare in Tajikistan By Satoshi Shimizutani; Eiji Yamada
  9. Risk and Cost Sharing in Firm-to-Firm Trade By Cristina Herghelegiu; Evgenii Monastyrenko
  10. The Non-Linear Impact of Digitization on Remittances Inflow: Evidence From the BRICS By Emara, Noha; Zhang, Yuanhao
  11. Dynamic Structural Impact of the COVID-19 Outbreak on the Stock Market and the Exchange Rate: A Cross-country Analysis Among BRICS Nations By Rupam Bhattacharyya; Sheo Rama; Atul Kumar; Indrajit Banerjee
  12. Genetically Modified Organisms: Promising or Problematic for Food Security? A Review of Major Developments in Selected Industrialized Countries - Part I By Isabelle Tsakok; Fatima Ezzahra Mengoub

  1. By: Jacques Fontanel (CESICE - Centre d'études sur la sécurité internationale et les coopérations européennes - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes - IEPG - Sciences Po Grenoble - Institut d'études politiques de Grenoble - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes); Natalia Burova; Veronika Shubaeva
    Abstract: The article presents the historical aspects of the development of distance education, which has grown considerably with the Covid-19 pandemic. Health, economic and social reasons allowed its development and it should not reduce its influence at the end of the epidemic, because of its flexibility and the accelerated learning of teachers and learners in these new pedagogical practices. In an unprecedented university experiment, France and Russia had already initiated a similar process in economics during the economic transition of the Russian economy, an experience that continues to this day between the Grenoble-Alpes University and UNECON in St Petersburg.
    Abstract: В статье представлены исторические аспекты развития дистанционного образования, которое значительно выросло с пандемией Ковида-19. Медицинские, экономические и социальные причины позволили ей развиваться, и ожидается, что по окончании эпидемии ее влияние не уменьшится в силу ее гибкости и ускоренного обучения преподавателей и учащихся этим новым педагогическим методам. В беспрецедентном университетском опыте Франция и Россия уже были вовлечены в аналогичный процесс в экономике во время экономического перехода российской экономики, который продолжается и сегодня между Университетом Гренобль-Альпы и UNECON в Санкт-Петербурге.
    Date: 2021
  2. By: Gasanov, Oscar
    Abstract: The article provides a review of approaches to assessing and analyzing the effectiveness of the interest rate and exchange rate policy of the Bank of Russia in the period 2015-2019. Despite the decrease in the rate of price growth, inflationary expectations of economic agents remain at a high level. Monetary policy continues to be tight. The stability of the exchange rate to external shocks, expected from the introduction of inflation targeting and a free floating rate, did not happen. The complex of conditions that have developed due to geopolitical factors, low growth rates and the global economic crisis caused by the coronavirus pandemic require the search for new targets, such as economic growth and exchange rate stability. To maintain the stability of the ruble exchange rate, it is recommended to sell foreign exchange reserves accumulated according to the "Budget rule" in an equivalent amount; to support the liquidity of banks during periods of an attack on the ruble, it should through foreign exchange REPO, and develop a derivatives market.
    Keywords: inflation targeting, consumer price index, exchange rate, monetary policy, Russian ruble, Bank of Russia
    JEL: E52 E58
    Date: 2020–10–20
  3. By: Lomonosov, Daniil; Polbin, Andrey; Fokin, Nikita
    Abstract: In this work we build a Bayesian vector autoregression model to estimate the impact of global economic activity shocks, supply shocks in the global oil market, as well as speculative oil shocks on key macroeconomic variables of the Russian economy: GDP, household consumption, fixed capital investment, import, export, real effective exchange rate, real wages and income, MIACR interest rate and GDP deflator. The model uses real oil prices, the index of global economic activity, oil production and oil inventories as exogenous variables. The model parameters are estimated for the period from Q1 1999 to Q4 2019. The dynamics of four exogenous variables is described using a separate external vector autoregression model, which is estimated over an extended time period from Q1 1974 to Q4 2019 in order to more accurately estimate its parameters and identify shocks. Shocks are identified based on the approach proposed in [Kilian, Murphy, 2014], which uses sign restrictions and restrictions on the price elasticities of oil demand and oil supply. According to estimates of impulse responses, such variables as real household consumption, imports, and the exchange rate respond positively and statistically significantly to all three shocks leading to an increase in oil prices. However, a shock to global economic activity has a stronger impact. With an increase in oil prices for real GDP, investment and exports a stable and statistically significant positive impact is observed only when this price increase is due to a shock to global economic activity. The work also estimates a forecast error variance decomposition and a historical decomposition of the domestic variables by shocks, which indicate the prevailing role of shocks in global economics activity in the dynamics of Russian macroeconomic variables.
    Keywords: Russian economy; oil prices; GDP; consumption; investment; exchange rate; export; global economic activity shock; oil supply shock; speculative oil demand shock
    JEL: C32 E32 F41 Q43
    Date: 2020–02–10
  4. By: Amat Adarov (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Ruslan Grinberg; Julia Grübler (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Robert Stehrer (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw)
    Abstract: Chart of the month The second wave of COVID-19 cases in CESEE is stronger than the first by Julia Grübler Opinion Corner A new economic model after the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia by Ruslan Grinberg The COVID-19 pandemic is likely to accelerate the search for a new economic model, which will become more socially oriented. However, Russia is not participating in this search. It is torn between the two extreme schools of economic thought market liberals and proponents of a return to Soviet-style planning, with very little in between. Foreign direct investment and global value chains empirical relationship and policy implications by Amat Adarov and Robert Stehrer Global value chain integration is strongly related to foreign direct investment flows, which might be hampered by regulatory restrictions. These, however, might be justified from a national or EU-wide security and resilience perspective. ICT capital and intangibles as drivers of value-added growth by Amat Adarov and Robert Stehrer ICT capital and intangible capital have been significant drivers of economic growth in the last two decades, though they have lost some steam since the global financial crisis. For EU-CEE, however, there is still a potential to exploit these drivers of growth. Monthly and quarterly statistics for Central, East and Southeast Europe
    Keywords: COVID-19, new economic model, role of the government, foreign direct investment, global value chains, barriers to FDI, ICT capital, intangible capital, growth accounting
    Date: 2020–10
  5. By: Artem Vdovychenko (National Bank of Ukraine); ;
    Abstract: In this study, we apply BEER and FEER approaches to estimate the REER trend on Ukrainian data. By applying BEER we were able to identify the long-run factors which explain the dynamics of the REER trend. FEER approach gives us information on the determinants and measurements of the current account norm for Ukraine. Although the two approaches are different in their nature, both of them identify the periods of REER undervaluation in the first half of the 2000s, after the crises of 2008-2009 and 2014-2015. Significant overvaluation was detected in the period 2011-2013. For more recent years estimates indicate moderate overvaluation of the REER which decreased in the second half of 2020.
    Keywords: BEER, FEER, REER trend, misalignment, current account norm, underlying current account
    JEL: F31 F32
    Date: 2021–03–29
  6. By: Alina Malkova; Klara Sabirianova Peter; Jan Svejnar
    Abstract: The paper investigates the effects of the credit market development on the labor mobility between the informal and formal labor sectors. In the case of Russia, due to the absence of a credit score system, a formal lender may set a credit limit based on the verified amount of income. To get a loan, an informal worker must first formalize his or her income (switch to a formal job), and then apply for a loan. To show this mechanism, the RLMS data was utilized, and the empirical method is the dynamic multinomial logit model of employment. The empirical results show that a relaxation of credit constraints increases the probability of transition from an informal to a formal job, and improved CMA (by one standard deviation) increases the chances of informal sector workers to formalize by 5.4 ppt. These results are robust in different specifications of the model. Policy simulations show strong support for a reduction in informal employment in response to better CMA in credit-constrained communities.
    Date: 2021–02
  7. By: Souhir Ben Amor; Michael Althof; Wolfgang Karl H\"ardle
    Abstract: The fast-growing Emerging Market (EM) economies and their improved transparency and liquidity have attracted international investors. However, the external price shocks can result in a higher level of volatility as well as domestic policy instability. Therefore, an efficient risk measure and hedging strategies are needed to help investors protect their investments against this risk. In this paper, a daily systemic risk measure, called FRM (Financial Risk Meter) is proposed. The FRM-EM is applied to capture systemic risk behavior embedded in the returns of the 25 largest EMs FIs, covering the BRIMST (Brazil, Russia, India, Mexico, South Africa, and Turkey), and thereby reflects the financial linkages between these economies. Concerning the Macro factors, in addition to the Adrian and Brunnermeier (2016) Macro, we include the EM sovereign yield spread over respective US Treasuries and the above-mentioned countries currencies. The results indicated that the FRM of EMs FIs reached its maximum during the US financial crisis following by COVID 19 crisis and the Macro factors explain the BRIMST FIs with various degrees of sensibility. We then study the relationship between those factors and the tail event network behavior to build our policy recommendations to help the investors to choose the suitable market for in-vestment and tail-event optimized portfolios. For that purpose, an overlapping region between portfolio optimization strategies and FRM network centrality is developed. We propose a robust and well-diversified tail-event and cluster risk-sensitive portfolio allocation model and compare it to more classical approaches
    Date: 2021–02
  8. By: Satoshi Shimizutani; Eiji Yamada
    Abstract: Tajikistan’s economy hinges heavily on remittance inflows mainly from Russia that have exceeded a quarter of annual GDP in recent years. The COVID-19 pandemic is likely to have adverse effects on the economy through damage to migration and remittances. We use a unique monthly household panel dataset that covers the period both before and after the outbreak to examine the impacts of COVID-19 on a variety of household welfare outcomes. We provide several brand-new findings. First, the adverse effects of the pandemic were particularly pronounced in April and May in 2020 but gradually diminished afterward, with some indicators leveling out in autumn. Second, in contrast to expectation, the pandemic had a sharp but only transitory effect on the stock of migrants working abroad in the spring. Some expected migrants were forced to remain in their home country during the border closures, while some of the incumbent migrants expecting to return were not able to do so, and remained employed in their destination countries. Both departures and returns started to increase again from summer. Employment and remittances of the migrants quickly recovered to levels seen in previous years, after a sharp decline in April and May. Third, regression analyses reveal that both migration and remittances have helped to mitigate the negative economic outcomes at home during the “with-COVID-19” period, suggesting that they served as a form of insurance. Overall, the unfavorable effects of the COVID-19 pandemic were severe and temporary right after the outbreak, but households with migrants were more resilient against the pandemic.
    Keywords: COVID-19, remittance, migration, Tajikistan, household welfare
    Date: 2021–01–19
  9. By: Cristina Herghelegiu (ECARES, Université Libre de Bruxelles, B); Evgenii Monastyrenko (Department of Economics and Management, Université du Luxembourg)
    Abstract: Firms are exposed to important risks and costs when trading across borders. Based on a set of standardized rules known as Incoterms, firms decide ex ante how to delimit their responsibilities throughout the shipping process to reduce the inherent contractual frictions. This paper investigates how sellers and buyers share risks and costs in international trade transactions depending on the characteristics of the exchanged product. We rely on a highly detailed dataset involving all Russian exporters and their foreign customers during 2012-2015. Our results suggest that buyers are more likely to bear responsibilities for goods that are (a) more distant from final use and (b) less tailored to their specific needs. These results are reinforced for products that constitute important inputs for buyers but reversed when there is a positive difference between the buyer and the seller size.
    Keywords: Risks, Costs, Incoterms, Firms Exports.
    JEL: F14 D22 D23 L11
    Date: 2020
  10. By: Emara, Noha; Zhang, Yuanhao
    Abstract: Due to the impact of COVID-19, it is important now more than ever to analyze the relationship between the improvement in digitization and the flow of remittances in order to fill the void that has come as a result of stay at home and quarantine orders. Using a comprehensive measure of digitization that encompasses the commonly used proxies of financial technology (Fintech) and employing a System Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) panel estimation methodology on annual data over the period 2004-2018, this paper examines the impact of digitization, as a proxy of Fintech, on the inflow of remittances for a sample of 34 developed and developing countries. Our analysis provides a case study on Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS), known as five emerging markets with a great number of workers out of abroad and below the average level of digital transfers. Using the Digital Ecosystem Development Index developed by Katz and Calorda (2018), the results of the paper uncover a statistically significant nonlinear relationship between the improvement in digitization measures and the inflow of remittances with an exact threshold level. More specifically, our results for the full sample indicate that improvement in digitization may initially increase the remittances inflow leading to an increase in the stock of remittances received. Nevertheless, once the digitization index reaches its threshold level further improvement in digitization tends decrease as penetration increases, giving rise to a decline in the rate of remittances inflow. This result implies that the marginal effect of the digital penetration is larger when at its lower level, before the threshold level. For countries such as the BRICS, with a level of digitization below the average of our sample, policy makers should apply more aggressive and comprehensive policies to recoup the maximum gains of a digital ecosystem. Hence, our policy implications are directed towards increasing the investments in developing human capacity including carrying different skill development training programs to prepare individuals for the information age, expanding the internet coverage and speed especially in educational establishments, encouraging the use and access of electronic banking by consumers, producers, and governments, and taking cyber security and fraud protection more seriously to encourage the flow of remittances, especially in light of its renewed utility due to the recent pandemic.
    Keywords: Remittances; Digitization; FinTech; Financial Inclusion; BRICS
    JEL: C23 G21 O47
    Date: 2020–10–21
  11. By: Rupam Bhattacharyya; Sheo Rama; Atul Kumar; Indrajit Banerjee
    Abstract: COVID-19 has impacted the economy of almost every country in the world. Of particular interest are the responses of the economic indicators of developing nations (such as BRICS) to the COVID-19 shock. As an extension to our earlier work on the dynamic associations of pandemic growth, exchange rate, and stock market indices in the context of India, we look at the same question with respect to the BRICS nations. We use structural variable autoregression (SVAR) to identify the dynamic underlying associations across the normalized growth measurements of the COVID-19 cumulative case, recovery, and death counts, and those of the exchange rate, and stock market indices, using data over 203 days (March 12 - September 30, 2020). Using impulse response analyses, the COVID-19 shock to the growth of exchange rate was seen to persist for around 10+ days, and that for stock exchange was seen to be around 15 days. The models capture the contemporaneous nature of these shocks and the subsequent responses, potentially guiding to inform policy decisions at a national level. Further, causal inference-based analyses would allow us to infer relationships that are stronger than mere associations.
    Date: 2021–02
  12. By: Isabelle Tsakok; Fatima Ezzahra Mengoub
    Abstract: Building on decades of biochemistry research, bioengineers have successfully transferred genes across species to produce living organisms (plants and animals, including fish) with desired traits. Unlike traditional breeding practiced over 10,000 years, this process takes years not centuries from initial conception to field testing and commercialization. Given its precision and range of application, biotechnology has even been compared to ‘playing God’. Since the mid-1990s, major genetically modified crops, including alfalfa, corn (maize), soybeans, sugar beet, and cotton, have been commercialized in the United States. Data from 2018 shows that GMOs are grown throughout the world but primarily in the Americas, not much in Europe, and none at all in Russia. The highest GMO acreage in the USA is no accident. The legal and regulatory framework in the USA for food, agriculture, and the environment is supportive of GMOs, whereas the equivalent European Union framework is not. In the U.S., the process of bioengineering itself is not regulated whereas it is in the EU. The EU adopts the precautionary principle (PP) in regulating GMOs, considering the scientific evidence on their impact to be uncertain. Indeed, in the EU, the cultivation and import of GMOs are subject to a law requiring prior authorization and the labelling and traceability system is mandatory. In the United States, mandatory labeling of GMOs will only start on 1 January 2022. Both legal approaches have been criticized: the U.S. for being too pro-business; the EU for being too anti- innovation. Perceptions of GMOs fall broadly into two opposing camps, although repeated surveys of consumers in both the U.S. and the EU show that the majority do not know much about GMOs. The pro-GMO camp sees in bioengineering the promise of agriculture that can improve food security including through higher yields, greater resistance to pests, more resilience to weather extremes like drought, and even better nutrition. They point to the fact that there has been no evidence of harm either to consumers or to the environment. The anti-GMO camp dismisses such support as biased, often without evidence for such bias. They assert that GMOs are bad for consumers, bad for biodiversity and bad for the environment. They see the control of bioengineered seeds by a handful of multinationals as a major threat to the livelihoods of millions of farmers, in particular smallholders, and the food security of nations dependent on these seeds.
    Date: 2021–01

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