nep-cis New Economics Papers
on Confederation of Independent States
Issue of 2021‒03‒29
seven papers chosen by
Alexander Harin
Modern University for the Humanities

  1. Spatial market efficiency of grain markets in the post-Soviet countries and implications for global food security By Svanidze, Miranda
  2. Looking In The Rear-View Mirror: A Thirty-Five Year Retrospective On The Russian Automotive Industry By Igor Gurkov; Michael J. Morley
  3. The two-pronged middle class: the old bourgeoisie, new state-engineered middle class and democratic development By Lankina, Tomila V.; Libman, Alexander
  4. Electoral Manipulation and Regime Support: Survey Evidence from Russia By David Szakonyi; Ora John Reuter
  5. How to align formal land rights with farmers’ perceptions in Central Asia? By Akhmadiyeva, Zarema; Herzfeld, Thomas
  6. Equity-Commodity Contagion During Four Recent Crises: Evidence from the USA, Europe and the BRICS By Ahmed Ayadi; Marjène Gana; Stéphane Goutte; Khaled Guesmi
  7. Как согласовать формальные права на землю с реальными представлениями фермеров о землепользовании в Центральной Азии? By Akhmadiyeva, Zarema; Herzfeld, Thomas

  1. By: Svanidze, Miranda
    Abstract: This doctoral thesis studies the spatial market efficiency of wheat markets in selected post-Soviet countries; particularly in Russia, the largest wheat exporting country in the world, and in the grain import-dependent countries of Central Asia and the South Caucasus. Increased grain production in the Black Sea region, and in Russia specifically, is crucial for meeting increasing global agricultural demand and global food security. Grain production in Russia could be boosted by increasing grain production efficiency and also by re-cultivating formerly abandoned agricultural land. However, to increase Russia's role in global wheat supply, additional grain production potential has to coincide with improving the country's grain export perspectives. On the other hand, the realization of Russia's export capacity largely depends on the performance of its regional grain markets domestically. Using price transmission and panel data analyses in a comparative context, this study finds the wheat market of Russia segmented, with the primary wheat export region poorly integrated into the domestic market. This thesis also demonstrates that regional wheat market integration in Russia is relatively low and heterogeneous and trade costs are relatively high compared to the USA, mostly due to large distances between grain producing regions. In addition, by including the USA as benchmark country, a comparative approach enables a more comprehensive assessment of the spatial market efficiency of the wheat market in Russia. The results also provide evidence on the dissimilarity of the underlying fundamental mechanism of market integration between Russia and the USA. In Russia, the physical trade of wheat mainly fosters market integration at the interregional level, whereas in the USA, in addition to physical trade, information flows induced by commodity futures markets play a major role in the regional grain market integration. (...)
    Keywords: Crop Production/Industries, Food Security and Poverty, International Relations/Trade
    Date: 2020
  2. By: Igor Gurkov (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Michael J. Morley (University of Limerick (Limerick, Ireland))
    Abstract: Drawing on foundational arguments from the literature on emerging market institutional strategies, and employing a realist historical analysis, we present a retrospective on the Russian automotive industry. We begin by tracing the origins of the sector and synthesizing salient post World War II developments. We then recount the subsequent expansionary decade of the 1960s, followed by the stagnation of the late 1980s, culminating in the eventual collapse of socialism and the breakup of the USSR. Attracted by both the rapid growth in the local market, and the preferential tax rates that accompanied investments, we then document the swift expansion of production facilities in Russia by major global manufacturers in the 2000s. We show how eventually an ensuing sharp halt in local market growth, and an accompanying rise in spare production capacity, saw most manufacturers pursue institutional strategies aimed at obtaining new tax concessions and leveraging intra-industry cooperation, rather than divesting their recently established production facilities. Overall, our retrospective, in particular, calls attention to how global manufacturers were able not only to acquire and rejuvenate existing production facilities or install new greenfield ones, but also to exercise their agency in shaping the broader policy framework and in fashioning new sectoral institutions designed to buttress and sustain the industry.
    Keywords: Russian automotive industry, foreign direct investment, institutional strategy, historical analysis, intra-industry cooperation, transition economy.
    JEL: F23 J23
    Date: 2021
  3. By: Lankina, Tomila V.; Libman, Alexander
    Abstract: We contribute to research on the democratic role of middle classes. Our paper distinguishes between middle classes emerging autonomously during gradual capitalist development, and those fabricated rapidly as part of state-led modernization. To make the case for a conceptual distinction between these groups within one national setting, we employ author-assembled historical district data, survey and archival materials for pre-Revolutionary Russia and its feudal estates. Our analysis reveals that the bourgeois estate of meshchane covaries with post-communist democratic competitiveness and media freedoms, our proxies of regional democratic variations. We propose two causal pathways explaining the puzzling persistence of social structure despite the Bolsheviks’ leveling ideology and post-communist autocratic consolidation: processes at the juncture of familial channels of human capital transmission and the revolutionaries’ modernization drive; and entrepreneurial value transmission outside of state policy. Our findings help refine recent work on political regime orientations of public sector-dependent societies subjected to authoritarian modernization.
    Keywords: legacies; middle-class; value transmission; Russia; revolution; communism; social structure; authoritarian modernization; bourgeoisie; estates
    JEL: R14 J01
    Date: 2021–03–18
  4. By: David Szakonyi (George Washington University); Ora John Reuter (University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee & Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: Does electoral fraud stabilize authoritarian rule or undermine it? The answer to this question rests, in part, on how voters evaluate regime candidates who engage in fraud. Using a survey experiment conducted after the 2016 elections in Russia, we find that voters withdraw their support from ruling party candidates who commit electoral fraud. This effect is especially large among strong supporters of the regime. Core regime supporters are more likely to have ex ante beliefs that elections are free and fair. Revealing that fraud has occurred significantly reduces their propensity to support the regime. These findings illustrate that fraud is costly for autocrats not just because it may ignite protest, but also because it can undermine the regime’s core base of electoral support. Because many of its strongest supporters expect free and fair elections, the regime has strong incentives to conceal or otherwise limit its use of electoral fraud.
    Date: 2020
  5. By: Akhmadiyeva, Zarema; Herzfeld, Thomas
    Abstract: Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan still undergo the process of establishing a land legislative system, implementing agricultural reforms that aim at increasing land productivity. The effectiveness of these reforms is often dependent on the level of law enforcement that varies in accordance with whether political elites in these countries have an interest in enacting certain reforms. As a result, legal land rights and farmers' perceptions of land rights may contradict each other and may create an uncertain and insecure environment for the farmers. Based on the findings of a farm-level survey conducted in 2019 in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, this policy brief claims that legal rights and farmers' actual farming practices do not coincide in many cases. Deviations appear in both directions: 1) farmers engage in activities which they are not allowed to be, and 2) farmers do not use all the opportunities provided by the national land legislation. These deviations indicate the ineffectiveness not only of land policies but of administrative monitoring and law enforcement mechanisms, too. Policy makers are recommended reconsidering the legal restrictions of land use in how far they are necessary to reach policy objectives. Furthermore, governments should reform the judicial system in particular enabling farmers and land users to appeal to courts for dispute resolutions in an effective, transparent, and fair manner. Finally, international donors should support future research on land rights and tenure security to improve policy design.
    Keywords: Agricultural and Food Policy, Land Economics/Use
    Date: 2020
  6. By: Ahmed Ayadi; Marjène Gana; Stéphane Goutte (VNU - Vietnam National University [Hanoï], Cemotev - Centre d'études sur la mondialisation, les conflits, les territoires et les vulnérabilités - UVSQ - Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines); Khaled Guesmi
    Abstract: This study considers the findings of previous research concerning the volatility and correlation transmission between equity and commodity markets and attempts to document evidence of contagion between these markets during four crises using the International Capital Asset Pricing Model (ICAPM). We study existence of contagion transmission mechanism between regional equity markets (USA, Western Europe and the BRICS) and sixteen categories of commodities
    Keywords: Metals,Natural Gas,Electricity,Crude Oil,Precious Metals,Agricultural Oils,Chemicals,Feeds,Fibers,Forestry Products,Grains,Live Stocks,Oil Seeds,Equity-commodity contagion,Three-factor CAPM,Financial crises
    Date: 2021–03–15
  7. By: Akhmadiyeva, Zarema; Herzfeld, Thomas
    Abstract: Казахстан и Узбекистан все еще находятся в процессе формирования системы земельного законодательства и проводят аграрные реформы, направленные на повышение продуктивности сельскохозяйственных земель. Успех реформ в этих странах часто зависит от эффективности системы обеспечения исполнения законов, которая варьируется в зависимости от того, заинтересованы ли политические элиты в проведении этих реформ. Как результат, юридические права на землю и восприятие фермерами этих прав могут противоречить друг другу, создавая неопределённую незащищенную инвестиционную среду. Используя результаты опроса фермерских хозяйств, проведенного в 2019 году в Казахстане и Узбекистане, мы утверждаем, что юридические права и существующие практики землепользования на самом деле не всегда совпадают. Несовпадения могут возникать в двух направлениях: 1) фермеры могут нарушать определенные нормы, предусмотренные действующим земельным законодательством; 2) фермеры могут быть ограничены в полной реализации формальных земельных прав. Эти несовпадения указывают на неэффективность не только земельной политики, но и механизмов административного мониторинга и исполнения законов. Политикам и разработчикам законопроектов рекомендуется пересмотреть правовые ограничения землепользования с учётом их необходимости для достижения целей политики. Кроме того, органам государственного управления в Казахстане и Узбекистане в первую очередь следует реформировать судебную систему: в частности, фермерам и землепользователям должна быть предоставлена возможность решать судебные споры эффективным, прозрачным и справедливым образом. В заключение необходимо отметить особое значение международных доноров в оказании поддержки для проведения будущих исследований по земельным правам и гарантиям владения и пользования для улучшения разработки политики.
    Keywords: Agricultural and Food Policy, Land Economics/Use
    Date: 2020

This nep-cis issue is ©2021 by Alexander Harin. It is provided as is without any express or implied warranty. It may be freely redistributed in whole or in part for any purpose. If distributed in part, please include this notice.
General information on the NEP project can be found at For comments please write to the director of NEP, Marco Novarese at <>. Put “NEP” in the subject, otherwise your mail may be rejected.
NEP’s infrastructure is sponsored by the School of Economics and Finance of Massey University in New Zealand.