nep-cis New Economics Papers
on Confederation of Independent States
Issue of 2021‒03‒22
six papers chosen by
Alexander Harin
Modern University for the Humanities

  1. The importance of Russia’s agricultural sector in the MENA geopolitics By Ballatore, Benedetto Francesco
  2. Model of the real exchange rate of the ruble with Markov mode switches By Polbin, Andrei (Полбин, Андрей); Shumilov, Andrey (Шумилов, Андрей); Bedin, Andrey (Бедин, Андрей); Kulikov, Alexander (Куликов, Александр)
  3. Two Dimensions of Political Trust in Russia By Konstantin A. Kholodilin; Vyacheslav N. Ovchinnikov; Marina Yu. Malkina; Igor A. Moiseev
  4. Wine complex of the Republic of Moldova and some aspects of the covid-19 pandemic By Fedorchukova, Svetlana; Boris, Boris; Gobirman, Galina
  5. Quantifying the Impact of Economic Sanctions on International Trade in the Energy and Mining Sectors By Serge Shikher; Mario Larch; Constantinos Syropoulos; Yoto V. Yotov
  6. Price discrimination in informal labor markets in Bogotá: An audit experiment during the 2018 FIFA World Cup By Zamora, P; Mantilla, C; Blanco, M

  1. By: Ballatore, Benedetto Francesco
    Abstract: Abstract. After 1990, at the close of the communist era, Russia’s agriculture embraced an ample process of transformation. The transition from centralized agriculture to a modern, competitive and sustainable agriculture was marked by several reform failures. Nonetheless, the Eurasian country's agro-food sector and in particular the grain industry thrived remarkably after 2014 in the wake of the Western countries-imposed sanctions on Russia in response to Moscow’s annexation of Crimea. In fact, Russia's policymakers recognized Kremlin's decision to impose complete food imports ban on the EU, US and some other Western countries as an opportunity to re-launch the agro-food sector. At present, the government seizes the sector's economic potential also as a strategy for economic diversification of the country, which is too much tied up to the oil and gas industry performances. In fact, in the Putin era the establishment of integrated agricultural holdings was supported by well-balanced agricultural reforms that had an important role for the modernization of Russia’s grain industry. In this regard, the main purpose of this paper is to analyse the agro-food policies developed by the Russian government, the reasons behind the success of Russia’s grain industry in the Middle East and North Africa regions (the so-called MENA countries) and the weaknesses it still confronts, both internal and external.
    Keywords: KEYWORDS: MENA countries; Russia
    JEL: F5 Q17 Q18
    Date: 2021–03–01
  2. By: Polbin, Andrei (Полбин, Андрей) (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Shumilov, Andrey (Шумилов, Андрей) (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Bedin, Andrey (Бедин, Андрей) (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Kulikov, Alexander (Куликов, Александр) (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration)
    Abstract: The paper analyzes the relationship between the real Russian ruble exchange rate and real oil prices using the error correction model with Markov regime switching, which allows for changes in exchange rate policy. It is found that during the period 1999-2018 real exchange rate dynamics was characterized by two clearly distinguishable regimes, one with fast and the other with slow adjustment to long-term equilibrium in response to oil price shocks. Further model testing shows that long-term relationship between real exchange rate and oil price is invariant to regime change. It is also found that, despite adoption of a floating exchange rate policy in 2014, inflexible real exchange rate regime has been periodically identified in recent years. This could be due to the new budget rule, according to which Russian Ministry of Finance in February 2017 started purchasing foreign currencies in amount of excess oil and gas earnings of the federal budget.
    Keywords: real effective exchange rate, Russia, oil prices, Markov regime switching model, error correction model.
    Date: 2020–10
  3. By: Konstantin A. Kholodilin; Vyacheslav N. Ovchinnikov; Marina Yu. Malkina; Igor A. Moiseev
    Abstract: This paper analyzes two dimensions of factors of political trust in Russia. The first dimension is the target dimension (sociotropic vs. egocentric), the second dimension is the time dimension (retrospective vs. perspective). The study is based on the microdata of 2016 Life in Transition Survey (LiTS) of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development. We find a robust evidence in favor of the dominant sociotropic channel of political trust. Thus, individuals, when deciding whether to trust or not trust into the Russian government, are primarily guided by the improvements in the external environment. Moreover, we find that the impact of sociotropic factors on political trust depends on the level of government. The improvements in political performance are the most important determinant of trust in the Russian president, while the institutional change and the economic development are the most important determinants in the models of trust in other government levels. Finally, we find that individuals who have lost their wealth show more trust than those who have preserved or increased it. However, this effect only works, if individuals are optimistic toward the future.
    Keywords: Political trust, sociotropic channel, egocentric channel Russia, microdata, Life in Transition Survey
    JEL: P26 P27 P37
    Date: 2021
  4. By: Fedorchukova, Svetlana; Boris, Boris; Gobirman, Galina
    Abstract: The coronavirus pandemic has made its own adjustments in all sectors of the national economy and in the social sphere. This year's drought has also negatively impacted the agricultural sector. Viticulture and winemaking, being strategic sectors of the national economy, suffered heavy losses. The aim of this work is to study the changes in the wine-making complex of the Republic of Moldova under the influence of the pandemic and other related factors. As information sources we used the information obtained from the National Office of Vine and Wine, Ministry of Agriculture, Regional Development and Environment, National Statistics Center of the Republic of Moldova, Academy of Sciences of Moldova , the daily “Logos press”. As working methods were used: systemic data analysis; their mathematical-statistical processing; determining the multiple socio-economic indices that characterize the actuality of the wine complex of RM. The main results of the researches: The COVID-19 pandemic has closed practically all social entities, which sell tangible quantities of domestic wines and spirits on the domestic market; The reserves-stocks of 18 million dal of quality wines from the 2019 harvest, currently existing in the country, will satisfy the export demand in the amount of 100%; Among the existing reserves in the increase of sales of high quality wines, remarkable is the online trade, both on the domestic market, but especially on the international one.
    Keywords: wine, vine, harvest, consumption, winery, local market, profit.
    JEL: Q13
    Date: 2020–11–19
  5. By: Serge Shikher; Mario Larch; Constantinos Syropoulos; Yoto V. Yotov
    Abstract: Capitalizing on the latest developments in the gravity literature, we utilize two new datasets on sanctions and trade to study the impact of economic sanctions on international trade in the mining sector, which includes oil and natural gas. We demonstrate that the gravity equation is well suited to model bilateral trade in mining and find that sanctions have been effective in impeding mining trade. Our analysis reveals that complete trade sanctions have reduced bilateral mining trade by about 44 percent on average. We also document the presence of significant heterogeneity in the effects of sanctions on mining trade across mining industries and across sanction episodes/cases, depending on the sanctioning and sanctioned countries, the type of sanctions used, and the direction of trade flows. We take a close look at the impact of recent sanctions on Iran and Russia.
    Keywords: structural gravity, sanctions, mining, oil, trade effects
    JEL: F10 F13 F14 F50 F51 H50 N40
    Date: 2021
  6. By: Zamora, P; Mantilla, C; Blanco, M
    Abstract: We conducted an audit experiment to examine whether street vendors in Bogotá (Colombia) exert price discrimination based on buyers’ attributes, such as gender and nationality; and based on product characteristics, such as the increasing marginal valuation of items needed to complete a collection. We exploited the seasonal demand for album stickers related to the FIFA World Cup Russia 2018. In our within-subjects design, experimenters carried out inperson audits and quoted a pre-determined list of missing stickers. They interacted with 59 sticker vendors located in five geographic clusters. We find that prices quoted to foreign buyers are higher than prices quoted to Colombian buyers. By contrast, we do not find evidence supporting direct gender-based discrimination, neither that vendors charge a higher price per sticker when the list of missing stickers is shorter. We complement the study with a qualitative analysis based on interviews that reveal vendors’ pricing strategies, their awareness of price discrimination, and the trade of counterfeits.
    Keywords: Colombia; dual labor markets; football; Latin America; sports; street vendors
    JEL: C93 J46
    Date: 2020–02–04

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