nep-cis New Economics Papers
on Confederation of Independent States
Issue of 2021‒03‒15
five papers chosen by

  1. Separating the Political from the Economic: The Russia-Traffic in Transit Panel Report By Pramila Crivelli; Mona Pinchis-Paulsen
  2. Die Bedeutung von Preisbeziehungen und Preisänderungen in ausgewählten Agrarmärkten By Hess, Sebastian; Koester, Ulrich
  3. Le stime economiche della CIA e l’imprevedibile fine dell’URSS By Luciano Segreto
  4. The Impact of COVID-19 on Fertility behaviour and Intentions in the Republic of Moldova By Emery, Tom; Koops, Judith C.
  5. International Portfolio Diversification Possibilities: Could BRICS become a Destination for G7 Invesments By Lei Pan; Vinod Mishra

  1. By: Pramila Crivelli; Mona Pinchis-Paulsen
    Abstract: This paper reviews the World Trade Organization (WTO) Panel Report “Russia-Measures Concerning Traffic in Transit” of April 2019. It constitutes the first attempt to disentangle the legal and political aspects related to the invoked essential security interests from the economic considerations underlying the measures imposed on the transit through Russia of goods exported from Ukraine to the Republic of Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan. One the one hand, the Panel’s analytical framework for the interpretation of Article XXI of the GATT denied Members unilateral determination over the security exceptions. It further enables future WTO panels a pathway for reviewing possible abuses of the security exceptions, a growing concern with the rising complexity of transnational economic relations. On the other hand, our economic analysis suggests a stricter assessment of Russia’s transit restrictions was necessary to satisfy this framework. In particular, the economic analysis argues the Panel adopted a circular assessment when considering the plausibility of whether Russia implemented its measures for the protection of its essential security interests in time of emergency in international relations. Ultimately, the Panel's attention to finding a diplomatic and legal path forward failed economic scrutiny; still, a legal assessment argues that the Panel's findings fit the legal design of Article XXI:b of the GATT.
    Keywords: WTO, dispute settlement, national security, transit, trade barriers, Russia
    Date: 2021–02
  2. By: Hess, Sebastian; Koester, Ulrich
    Abstract: This paper presents an overview of the livestock sector in Central Asia using national statistics and field survey data. Growing consumer demand and underused pasture reserves suggest significant potential for growth. But production is fragmented between many small household producers with poor access to land, family farms and very large (but often inefficient) enterprises. Few producers can supply quality livestock products at high volumes, leading some meat and milk processors to favour imported produce. Peri-urban milk suppliers may participate in value chains through wholesalers, but in remoter areas farms specialise in meat production, reliant on long chains of intermediaries. Only in Kazakhstan do international agreements, slaughter and animal health arrangements favour export prospects in the near future. Since the 1990s, winter fodder deficits have limited livestock productivity. Domestic fodder production is increasing in Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, but is hindered by state order policies in Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. Dairy producers close to markets often provide high quality fodder, whilst need for supplements is lower amongst mobile meat producers with winter pasture. Amongst the latter, a class of large commercial operations is emerging, whilst smaller farms lacking access to grazing resources find it harder to grow. Government policy often magnifies differences between small and large producers, for example through conditions for subsidies or land access procedures. Subsidised credit is available in most republics but uptake is limited by effective demand. Improved public services, better support for service cooperatives and decentralised processing and slaughter facilities would help producers increase value from their livestock.
    Date: 2021
  3. By: Luciano Segreto
    Abstract: In this article we will analyse the debate that took place around the assessments that the CIA gave of the economic situation in the Soviet Union, an evidently decisive key to understanding the overall health of the main political-military opponent of the United States. The article will be including the discussions that flared up in the American political establishment starting in 1990, after the fall of the Berlin Wall and the initial disorientation due to the loss of the historical adversary of the Cold War. Moreover, the positions taken by the Sovietologists in these discussions will be evaluated, as well as the role-played in these debates by the analysis developed in the 1980s by Soviet economists. We will be finally considering the official response given the CIA, actually rather late, since it arrived only in 2001. This was essentially aimed at confirming the correctness of its analyses and reiterating that its duties did not include that of predicting the collapse of the Soviet Union.
    JEL: N14 N44 P24
    Date: 2020
  4. By: Emery, Tom (NIDI); Koops, Judith C.
    Abstract: The COVID Pandemic could affect fertility behaviour and intentions in many ways. Restrictions on service provision may reduce access to family planning services and increase fertility in the short term. By contrast, the economic uncertainty brought about by the pandemic and its impact on mental health and well-being may reduce fertility. These various pathways have been explored in the context of high income countries such as the United States and Western Europe, but little is known about middle income countries. In this paper we asses the impact of the COVID pandemic on fertility intentions and behaviour in the Republic of Moldova, a middle income country in Eastern Europe, using the Generations and Gender Survey. This survey was conducted partially before and partially after the pandemic, allowing for detailed analysis of individual circumstances. The results indicate that the pandemic reduced contraceptive use by 40%. Conversely couples were also 41% less likely to be trying to conceive after the onset of the pandemic, although medium term fertility intentions were unchanged. Indicators therefore suggest that in the medium term fertility intentions may not be affected by the pandemic but access to family planning services and deferring attempts to conceive may change which individuals have children and when.
    Date: 2021–03–05
  5. By: Lei Pan; Vinod Mishra
    Abstract: We investigate the diversification possibilities between BRICS and G7 stock markets. Our theoretical model suggests that risk-averse investors are diversifying internationally. The findings of cointegration test with multiple structural breaks reveal that apart from China and India, the remaining BRICS equity markets can be a potential diversification destination over the long term. The full sample bootstrap Granger causality tests results imply that G7 stock markets have predictive power for most BRICS stock markets. Both the long-run and shortrun parametric stability tests suggest that the full sample parameters are unstable hence unreliable The bootstrap rolling window estimations outline the causalities between stock markets are increasing during the crisis periods and vary over different sub-samples. Overall, our causality findings suggest that the short-term diversification possibilities are extremely limited. Finally, we analyze the impact of different financial and macroeconomic determinants on the crosscountry stock market causality through a probit model. We find the difference in business conditions, excess return and size premium are the main drivers of the causality flows.
    Keywords: international diversification, structural breaks, bootstrap rolling windows
    JEL: F30 G11 G15
    Date: 2019–06

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